Belatedly the unions are catching on how immigration has affected their members, an oversupply of cheap labour compresses wages. Bob Crow understood this. Labour and its love of big business have been firmly in the EU camp despite being told otherwise at the GE.
In addition people will look at the pictures on the news and, whilst having sympathy for refugees have no appetite to house them.
Yes its wishful thinking but I'm beginning to think OUT is ever more likely.
Beeb ticker stating that Paul Kenny of the GMB is saying that they, and Labour, could campaign to leave the EU 'if workers rights are negotiated away', which is an interesting move. Presumably the intention is to put pressure on Cameron to therefore not do so. I'm not sure that will work.
If this is where union thinking is going, Out should be favourite by some way.
I have been saying this for a while now. There is little about the EU that is appealing to the Corbyn-left and the unions. Throw in UKIP supporters and the Tory right and you have a very broad - and motivated - "Out" coalition, even if it is only an informal one. "In" cannot match the passion or the depth of convinced support that "Out" has. The only way "In" wins from here is through a campaign based on scare stories. And they would need to be really scary and a lot more convincing than the ones we have heard up to now.
In the 1975 referendum 'No' had Tony Benn and the Labour ( Michael Foot, Peter Shore, Eric Varley, and Barbara Castle) left plus Enoch Powell, Ulster Unionist and some Tories. Quite a lot of 'passion' there.
The red tops are in a belligerent anti-Corbyn mood this morning. I'm not sure how long he will survive the onslaught but the media needs a counter-attack. For too long British politics has been driven by sucking-up to Murdoch.
What's certain though is that the tories badly miscalculated with their national security message and it has backfired on them, which serves them right for being so negative. One of Cameron's great weaknesses is a tendency to come over as bullying.
I am amazed that you can be so certain it has backfired. The wider electorate have no idea who corbyn is. Their own initial first impression will be the headlines in the papers and these videos.
In the first place there's no-one in the country that doesn't now know who Corbyn is. He has dominated discussion for months, especially on social media.
I read today that the Germans are threatening to cut EU payments if they don't get what they want.
Makes you wonder why we, as one of the EU's biggest paymasters, have never threatened to do the same.
Not clear to me that Germany is threatening to withhold its payments to the EU, but saying that those nations who won't accept migrants should have their EU "structural" funds cut.
Beeb ticker stating that Paul Kenny of the GMB is saying that they, and Labour, could campaign to leave the EU 'if workers rights are negotiated away', which is an interesting move. Presumably the intention is to put pressure on Cameron to therefore not do so. I'm not sure that will work.
If this is where union thinking is going, Out should be favourite by some way.
I have been saying this for a while now. There is little about the EU that is appealing to the Corbyn-left and the unions. Throw in UKIP supporters and the Tory right and you have a very broad - and motivated - "Out" coalition, even if it is only an informal one. "In" cannot match the passion or the depth of convinced support that "Out" has. The only way "In" wins from here is through a campaign based on scare stories. And they would need to be really scary and a lot more convincing than the ones we have heard up to now.
Right now, I think the main fear would be the hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern and African migrants that can come here on EU passports if we stay in.
The Remain side will only win via neutralising the worries of staying by a solid renegotiation.
I'll stick my neck out here then run for cover ...
Yes I do think it's time to move on from Remembrance Day. I think we should say 'thank you, thank you for sacrificing, thank you for what you did in the cause you were told, and may have believed, was right. We thank you.'
But now it's time to move on. By the way, I know many many people, including Conservative voters, who privately agree with me on this.
Remembering the sacrifice increases the probability that we will not engage in World War again in future.
Does it? Is there any evidence for this?
I wear a red poppy, and remembrance for me has a lot to do with respect, but do nations with remembrance celebrations behave less aggressively or more aggressively? IS is obsessed with "martyrs" as is Hamas and any number of other beligerent groups.
I was thinking Remebrance as practiced in the UK, or Memorial Day in the States, not aggressive veneration of murderers.
Public displays of mourning for the war dead are central to nationalist movements, whether British patriotism or Irish republicanism. They serve as remembrance of people and sacrifice, but also as remembrance of grievances. Think of the Argentine commemorations over the Falklands dead for example.
I wear a red poppy in remembrance of my own family war dead, and meditate on the human cost of war, but is this a desirable thing or just a nessecary thing?
I may be misremembering, but I just do not recall Remembrance Sunday being the big deal it is now 20 or 30 years ago.
I can easily believe it has been made a bigger deal,but the focus seemsmuch more reflective on 'remember the tragic loss' not 'remember the loss for the glory of the British race' or some such. Even the stories of heroism are tinged with more sadness.
I agree absolutely. Remembrance in this country has never been about triumphalism. That's why I like it so much.
Tories have been trying to take it in that direction though
One of the good things about Remembrance Sunday is that both the SNP and Plaid Cymru support it. That tells you it is not about glorying the British nation, but about remembering the dead.
Yes, but still does not alter the fact that the Tories have been pushing it that way recently
This reminds me of the time one poster on PB couldn't quite understand that Mike and I are two different people with differing opinions on some things.
@jimwaterson: People really struggling to understand that reporters can both hold Corbyn to account and back him when he's correct http://t.co/94DKhFEx9w
"In the first place there's no-one in the country that doesn't now know who Corbyn is. He has dominated discussion for months, especially on social media."
It may already have been mentioned earlier but just in case anyone is interested the Telegraph are running a 'live' commentary on the 15th September 1940 Battle of Britain just as they did for Waterloo earlier in the summer.
Brilliant, thanks Richard. The Waterloo live blog was absolutely fascinating - you get a much better sense of the drama, uncertainty and timescales than you do in a normal account of what happened.
If we can't renegotiate business regulation being brought back to the UK than we should definitely bring free movement of labour back. Otherwise there's nothing to be achieved.
To be honest, Germany suspends treaty obligations unilaterally, so there's no reason why we shouldn't get immigration policy back.
@BBCBreaking: Hungary declares state of emergency on Serbian border, giving police and army new powers to tackle migrant crisis http://t.co/TUW4Sap7bP
Serbia is not a member of the EU, IMRC, so presumably there is a conventional border crossing between them and Hungary? - It would be interesting to know if migrant numbers arriving at the border have escalated, since Merkel made her rash announcement, or if the migrants have become more restless/violent which has led to Hungary imposing this new SoE.
@BBCBreaking: Hungary declares state of emergency on Serbian border, giving police and army new powers to tackle migrant crisis http://t.co/TUW4Sap7bP
Serbia is not a member of the EU, IMRC, so presumably there is a conventional border crossing between them and Hungary? - It would be interesting to know if migrant numbers arriving at the border have escalated, since Merkel made her rash announcement, or if the migrants have become more restless/violent which has led to Hungary imposing this new SoE.
They'll be outlawing pornographic holodeck simulations next.
Edited extra bit: "She believes that they reinforce traditional stereotypes of women and the view that a relationship need be nothing more than physical."
Ahem. Worth reminding people which gender currently spends more (by miles) on sex toys.
This bizarre view that men have a depraved sex drive and women are pure and virtuous is... well, demented.
I'm rather more worried about autonomous killing machines, to be honest.
They'll be outlawing pornographic holodeck simulations next.
Edited extra bit: "She believes that they reinforce traditional stereotypes of women and the view that a relationship need be nothing more than physical."
Ahem. Worth reminding people which gender currently spends more (by miles) on sex toys.
This bizarre view that men have a depraved sex drive and women are pure and virtuous is... well, demented.
I'm rather more worried about autonomous killing machines, to be honest.
@BBCBreaking: Hungary declares state of emergency on Serbian border, giving police and army new powers to tackle migrant crisis http://t.co/TUW4Sap7bP
Serbia is not a member of the EU, IMRC, so presumably there is a conventional border crossing between them and Hungary? - It would be interesting to know if migrant numbers arriving at the border have escalated, since Merkel made her rash announcement, or if the migrants have become more restless/violent which has led to Hungary imposing this new SoE.
Sean Fear previously said that they went from 2,000 arrivals a day to 3,000 arrivals a day, but I am not sure what source it was.
The problem with all these measures now is that it's too late. Huge numbers of people from Africa and Asia have suddenly had this option raised to their consciousness. And the numbers arriving are now large enough that they can always overwhelm the border at some point. Once the Hungary-Serbia fence is secure, they will go via Romania into Hungary. Once that bit's secure, they will enter Ukraine and then into Slovakia and Poland. The UK has enough difficulty policing just one port, not thousands of miles of land fencing.
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
Beeb ticker stating that Paul Kenny of the GMB is saying that they, and Labour, could campaign to leave the EU 'if workers rights are negotiated away', which is an interesting move. Presumably the intention is to put pressure on Cameron to therefore not do so. I'm not sure that will work.
If this is where union thinking is going, Out should be favourite by some way.
I have been saying this for a while now. There is little about the EU that is appealing to the Corbyn-left and the unions. Throw in UKIP supporters and the Tory right and you have a very broad - and motivated - "Out" coalition, even if it is only an informal one. "In" cannot match the passion or the depth of convinced support that "Out" has. The only way "In" wins from here is through a campaign based on scare stories. And they would need to be really scary and a lot more convincing than the ones we have heard up to now.
In the 1975 referendum 'No' had Tony Benn and the Labour ( Michael Foot, Peter Shore, Eric Varley, and Barbara Castle) left plus Enoch Powell, Ulster Unionist and some Tories. Quite a lot of 'passion' there.
And it wasn't even close despite that. I certainly wouldn't rule out the same thing happening again.
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
Re Corbyn, the polling yesterday put down a marker of hostility from the 55+ age groups. He didn't appear to be rated very highly by them, and as OGH keeps saying these cohorts vote.
A fair proportion of these groups in the South will remember Corbyn's support for the IRA, and other unpopular causes, (not with affection).
Be interested to see how he polls in the Midlands with those who remember the Birmingham pub bombings. (The next election campaign will no doubt refresh their memory ....)
More likely to vote Labour with Corbyn Leader (net)
South: -7 Mid/Wales: -10 North/Scot: -2
Thanks. Good job there are no marginals for Labour to lose in Wales and the Midlands then.
Oh....
If you look at Lab's top 50 defence seats by region (up to Hyndburn with a maj of 4400) they break down as follows
North - 17 (Chester, Wirral W, Halifax, Barrow, Dewsbury, Lancaster, Mboro S, Wakefield, Copeland, Hartlepool, Darlington, Bpool S, Burnley, Scunthorpe, Chorley, B Auckland, Hyndburn) Midlands - 10 (Newcastle-U-L, Wolves SW, NE Derbys, Walsall N, Bham Northfield, Gedling, Stoke S, Bham Edgbaston, Cov S, Cov NW London - 10 (Ealing, Brentford, Ilford, Hampstead, Enfield, Harrow W, Westminster N, Tooting, Eltham, Bermondsey Wales - 7 (Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd S, Delyn, Alyn, Newport W South - 5 (Cambridge, Hove, Bristol E, Soton Test, Bristol W Scotland - 1(Edinburgh S)
Tat's really useful, thanks.
50 seats with majorities of under 4,400. This could get really bad for Labour.
Isn't this all up for grabs though? Cam is planning a reduction to 600 seats.
Chances are the distribution will be much the same if the boundaries are drawn up fairly (i.e. without reference to partisan advantage). The distribution of marginals and safe seats is more by cluster than by locality.
If the boundary review does go through, not only will Labour face a loss of seats due to that redistribution but incumbency factors will also be reduced. In one sense, that should hit the Tories more given that there are more Con than Lab seats. However, the main benefit of incumbency is as a protection against national unpopularity (and for whatever reason, Tories don't seem to benefit from it as much anyway). If a Corbyn-led Labour is as unpopular as some hope/fear, the new boundaries will remove another support underpinning Labour's performance (the same of course is true in reverse, if Labour dump Corbyn for someone more effective and popular, and if the Conservatives replace Cameron with a vote-loser).
Beeb ticker stating that Paul Kenny of the GMB is saying that they, and Labour, could campaign to leave the EU 'if workers rights are negotiated away', which is an interesting move. Presumably the intention is to put pressure on Cameron to therefore not do so. I'm not sure that will work.
If this is where union thinking is going, Out should be favourite by some way.
I have been saying this for a while now. There is little about the EU that is appealing to the Corbyn-left and the unions. Throw in UKIP supporters and the Tory right and you have a very broad - and motivated - "Out" coalition, even if it is only an informal one. "In" cannot match the passion or the depth of convinced support that "Out" has. The only way "In" wins from here is through a campaign based on scare stories. And they would need to be really scary and a lot more convincing than the ones we have heard up to now.
In the 1975 referendum 'No' had Tony Benn and the Labour ( Michael Foot, Peter Shore, Eric Varley, and Barbara Castle) left plus Enoch Powell, Ulster Unionist and some Tories. Quite a lot of 'passion' there.
And it wasn't even close despite that. I certainly wouldn't rule out the same thing happening again.
Very interesting ICM EU poll using the new question has it statistically tied for the first time. If Corbyn does come down for OUT it's going to be very interesting both for the result and for him. Suppose 'he' wins it and Cameron loses it ...?
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
I'll stick my neck out here then run for cover ...
Yes I do think it's time to move on from Remembrance Day. I think we should say 'thank you, thank you for sacrificing, thank you for what you did in the cause you were told, and may have believed, was right. We thank you.'
But now it's time to move on. By the way, I know many many people, including Conservative voters, who privately agree with me on this.
Remembering the sacrifice increases the probability that we will not engage in World War again in future.
Does it? Is there any evidence for this?
I wear a red poppy, and remembrance for me has a lot to do with respect, but do nations with remembrance celebrations behave less aggressively or more aggressively? IS is obsessed with "martyrs" as is Hamas and any number of other beligerent groups.
I was thinking Remebrance as practiced in the UK, or Memorial Day in the States, not aggressive veneration of murderers.
Public displays of mourning for the war dead are central to nationalist movements, whether British patriotism or Irish republicanism. They serve as remembrance of people and sacrifice, but also as remembrance of grievances. Think of the Argentine commemorations over the Falklands dead for example.
I wear a red poppy in remembrance of my own family war dead, and meditate on the human cost of war, but is this a desirable thing or just a nessecary thing?
I may be misremembering, but I just do not recall Remembrance Sunday being the big deal it is now 20 or 30 years ago.
I can easily believe it has been made a bigger deal,but the focus seemsmuch more reflective on 'remember the tragic loss' not 'remember the loss for the glory of the British race' or some such. Even the stories of heroism are tinged with more sadness.
I agree absolutely. Remembrance in this country has never been about triumphalism. That's why I like it so much.
Tories have been trying to take it in that direction though
One of the good things about Remembrance Sunday is that both the SNP and Plaid Cymru support it. That tells you it is not about glorying the British nation, but about remembering the dead.
Yes, but still does not alter the fact that the Tories have been pushing it that way recently
Just shows why the designation “evil” is appropriate.
Re Corbyn, the polling yesterday put down a marker of hostility from the 55+ age groups. He didn't appear to be rated very highly by them, and as OGH keeps saying these cohorts vote.
A fair proportion of these groups in the South will remember Corbyn's support for the IRA, and other unpopular causes, (not with affection).
Be interested to see how he polls in the Midlands with those who remember the Birmingham pub bombings. (The next election campaign will no doubt refresh their memory ....)
More likely to vote Labour with Corbyn Leader (net)
South: -7 Mid/Wales: -10 North/Scot: -2
Thanks. Good job there are no marginals for Labour to lose in Wales and the Midlands then.
Oh....
If you look at Lab's top 50 defence seats by region (up to Hyndburn with a maj of 4400) they break down as follows
North - 17 (Chester, Wirral W, Halifax, Barrow, Dewsbury, Lancaster, Mboro S, Wakefield, Copeland, Hartlepool, Darlington, Bpool S, Burnley, Scunthorpe, Chorley, B Auckland, Hyndburn) Midlands - 10 (Newcastle-U-L, Wolves SW, NE Derbys, Walsall N, Bham Northfield, Gedling, Stoke S, Bham Edgbaston, Cov S, Cov NW London - 10 (Ealing, Brentford, Ilford, Hampstead, Enfield, Harrow W, Westminster N, Tooting, Eltham, Bermondsey Wales - 7 (Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd S, Delyn, Alyn, Newport W South - 5 (Cambridge, Hove, Bristol E, Soton Test, Bristol W Scotland - 1(Edinburgh S)
That's an interesting list though one issue is that I'd like to see North split into the North West and the North East.
I know the earlier poll didn't but I believe the North West swings a lot more than the North East does. Looking at the names without double-checking I think more of those marginals are in the North West.
Looking at that picture it seems very clear that Osborne has dramatically curbed the growth in debt and will begin paying it down this parliament.
The problem with this graph is it is looking at the wrong measure. No one can start to reduce the debt until they have got rid of the deficit. Until the point at which the budget is in surplus, graphs of debt are pointless. Nelson should be concentrating on the deficit graph and the only real measure of who should be trusted with the economy should be to compare how the deficit has been cut during Osborne's tenure with how it would have been cut - or, I suspect, would have continued to rise - under Labour.
Better measures still are debt- and deficit-to-GDP, though even these can be misleading as running a deficit during a boom appears sustainable.
Perhaps an ideal measure is to compare the debt-to-GDP ratio now against the same point in the previous economic cycle, and then to monitor the change in that figure from year to year. Quite how you measure it is another matter.
''Merkel has undoubtedly made one of the stupidest decisions and subsequent announcements in European history. She ought to go. ''
That isn;t really the point though. The point is that decisions taken by Germany could have an enormous material effect in Britain down the line as the refugees acquire German passports, and yet it is an action over which we have no say, control or sanction.
That is why people want out. Immigration isn't about immigrants, the EU isn't about the EU.
The issue is control, which the electorate correctly senses it is losing.
Isn't this all up for grabs though? Cam is planning a reduction to 600 seats.
Chances are the distribution will be much the same if the boundaries are drawn up fairly (i.e. without reference to partisan advantage). The distribution of marginals and safe seats is more by cluster than by locality.
If the boundary review does go through, not only will Labour face a loss of seats due to that redistribution but incumbency factors will also be reduced. In one sense, that should hit the Tories more given that there are more Con than Lab seats. However, the main benefit of incumbency is as a protection against national unpopularity (and for whatever reason, Tories don't seem to benefit from it as much anyway). If a Corbyn-led Labour is as unpopular as some hope/fear, the new boundaries will remove another support underpinning Labour's performance (the same of course is true in reverse, if Labour dump Corbyn for someone more effective and popular, and if the Conservatives replace Cameron with a vote-loser).
I think the Lib Dems have shown this year that incumbency is not the be all and end all when it comes to national unpopularity! It helps on the margins definitely, but that's as far as it goes.
''Merkel has undoubtedly made one of the stupidest decisions and subsequent announcements in European history. She ought to go. ''
That isn;t really the point though. The point is that decisions taken by Germany could have an enormous material effect in Britain down the line as the refugees acquire German passports, and yet it is an action over which we have no say, control or sanction.
That is why people want out.
I thought it took eight years for immigrants to get German citizenship. Apparently it's only five. We have the data that shows how attractive the UK is; Germany's actions have real consequences for us, the effects of which will begin in 2020.
Every forecast about immigration has been wrong; whether that's Polish, Romanian and so forth. This is a fantastic country. That's why everyone wants to be here.
I'll stick my neck out here then run for cover ...
Yes I do think it's time to move on from Remembrance Day. I think we should say 'thank you, thank you for sacrificing, thank you for what you did in the cause you were told, and may have believed, was right. We thank you.'
But now it's time to move on. By the way, I know many many people, including Conservative voters, who privately agree with me on this.
Remembering the sacrifice increases the probability that we will not engage in World War again in future.
Does it? Is there any evidence for this?
I wear a red poppy, and remembrance for me has a lot to do with respect, but do nations with remembrance celebrations behave less aggressively or more aggressively? IS is obsessed with "martyrs" as is Hamas and any number of other beligerent groups.
I was thinking Remebrance as practiced in the UK, or Memorial Day in the States, not aggressive veneration of murderers.
Public displays of mourning for the war dead are central to nationalist movements, whether British patriotism or Irish republicanism. They serve as remembrance of people and sacrifice, but also as remembrance of grievances. Think of the Argentine commemorations over the Falklands dead for example.
I wear a red poppy in remembrance of my own family war dead, and meditate on the human cost of war, but is this a desirable thing or just a nessecary thing?
I may be misremembering, but I just do not recall Remembrance Sunday being the big deal it is now 20 or 30 years ago.
I can easily believe it has been made a bigger deal,but the focus seemsmuch more reflective on 'remember the tragic loss' not 'remember the loss for the glory of the British race' or some such. Even the stories of heroism are tinged with more sadness.
I agree absolutely. Remembrance in this country has never been about triumphalism. That's why I like it so much.
Tories have been trying to take it in that direction though
One of the good things about Remembrance Sunday is that both the SNP and Plaid Cymru support it. That tells you it is not about glorying the British nation, but about remembering the dead.
Yes, but still does not alter the fact that the Tories have been pushing it that way recently
@BBCBreaking: Hungary declares state of emergency on Serbian border, giving police and army new powers to tackle migrant crisis http://t.co/TUW4Sap7bP
Serbia is not a member of the EU, IMRC, so presumably there is a conventional border crossing between them and Hungary? - It would be interesting to know if migrant numbers arriving at the border have escalated, since Merkel made her rash announcement, or if the migrants have become more restless/violent which has led to Hungary imposing this new SoE.
No, and nor is it a member of Schengen. However, last time I travelled from Hungary into Serbia by train (2008, so things may have changed), there were no passport checks that I recall.
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
I can't imagine the refugees will want to hang around in Serbia for too long
The Hungarian army stood behind the barbed wire looked very menacing on the news this morning, not exactly the warm welcome the refugees expected.
Yet they are determined to get in, so many will go via Slovakia instead. It's not like they have a channel to cross. The new border checks will slow the pace of immigration, but thanks to Merkel's announcement it will be far, far higher than before the crisis.
And given that, we must be able to limit free movement. Germany can suspend Schengen "temporarily", so we can suspend free movement "temporarily".
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
I can't imagine the refugees will want to hang around in Serbia for too long
They might have temporarily closed the pipeline at one end, but millions are still poring into it at the other.
Merkel has undoubtedly made one of the stupidest decisions and subsequent announcements in European history. She ought to go.
That's possibly setting the bar a bit high for a continent with a 3000+ year history. But it's up in the top ten for the last decade.
My personal selection of the top #3 bad decisions in European history:
1. Jun 1941. "Let's invade Russia". A. Hitler. 2. Dec 1941. "Let's declare war on America". A. Hitler. 3. Jun 1812. "Let's invade Russia". N. Bonaparte.
Re Corbyn, the polling yesterday put down a marker of hostility from the 55+ age groups. He didn't appear to be rated very highly by them, and as OGH keeps saying these cohorts vote.
A fair proportion of these groups in the South will remember Corbyn's support for the IRA, and other unpopular causes, (not with affection).
Be interested to see how he polls in the Midlands with those who remember the Birmingham pub bombings. (The next election campaign will no doubt refresh their memory ....)
More likely to vote Labour with Corbyn Leader (net)
South: -7 Mid/Wales: -10 North/Scot: -2
Thanks. Good job there are no marginals for Labour to lose in Wales and the Midlands then.
Oh....
If you look at Lab's top 50 defence seats by region (up to Hyndburn with a maj of 4400) they break down as follows
North - 17 (Chester, Wirral W, Halifax, Barrow, Dewsbury, Lancaster, Mboro S, Wakefield, Copeland, Hartlepool, Darlington, Bpool S, Burnley, Scunthorpe, Chorley, B Auckland, Hyndburn) Midlands - 10 (Newcastle-U-L, Wolves SW, NE Derbys, Walsall N, Bham Northfield, Gedling, Stoke S, Bham Edgbaston, Cov S, Cov NW London - 10 (Ealing, Brentford, Ilford, Hampstead, Enfield, Harrow W, Westminster N, Tooting, Eltham, Bermondsey Wales - 7 (Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd S, Delyn, Alyn, Newport W South - 5 (Cambridge, Hove, Bristol E, Soton Test, Bristol W Scotland - 1(Edinburgh S)
That's an interesting list though one issue is that I'd like to see North split into the North West and the North East.
I know the earlier poll didn't but I believe the North West swings a lot more than the North East does. Looking at the names without double-checking I think more of those marginals are in the North West.
The 'North' in Gareth's list includes NW, NE and Yorks.
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
I can't imagine the refugees will want to hang around in Serbia for too long
The Hungarian army stood behind the barbed wire looked very menacing on the news this morning, not exactly the warm welcome the refugees expected.
Yet they are determined to get in, so many will go via Slovakia instead. It's not like they have a channel to cross. The new border checks will slow the pace of immigration, but thanks to Merkel's announcement it will be far, far higher than before the crisis.
And given that, we must be able to limit free movement. Germany can suspend Schengen "temporarily", so we can suspend free movement "temporarily".
Isn't this all up for grabs though? Cam is planning a reduction to 600 seats.
Chances are the distribution will be much the same if the boundaries are drawn up fairly (i.e. without reference to partisan advantage). The distribution of marginals and safe seats is more by cluster than by locality.
If the boundary review does go through, not only will Labour face a loss of seats due to that redistribution but incumbency factors will also be reduced. In one sense, that should hit the Tories more given that there are more Con than Lab seats. However, the main benefit of incumbency is as a protection against national unpopularity (and for whatever reason, Tories don't seem to benefit from it as much anyway). If a Corbyn-led Labour is as unpopular as some hope/fear, the new boundaries will remove another support underpinning Labour's performance (the same of course is true in reverse, if Labour dump Corbyn for someone more effective and popular, and if the Conservatives replace Cameron with a vote-loser).
I think the Lib Dems have shown this year that incumbency is not the be all and end all when it comes to national unpopularity! It helps on the margins definitely, but that's as far as it goes.
Wasn't there a study that showed that under the boundaries that were proposed, the Lib Dems would have ended up with four MPs?
It only took David Cameron six years to finally come out and take a moral stand, and all it took was the death of one toddler
So why have we been outspending the rest of the EU on refugee camps in Turkey/Lebanon/Jordan for each of the last three years? Or does Mr Boyle favour grandstanding Angela 'opps! Close the borders!' Merkel?
If it has been going on for three years, Miss Vance, then it is attributable to the Coalition Government.
A little way back you were attributing it entirely to Cameron.
Mr. M, the Fourth Crusade should be at the top of the list.
Mr Dancer, I fear that merely completed a process of decline that began before, but culminated in, the Battle of Manzikert. By the thirteenth century the empire was but a shadow of its former self.
It only took David Cameron six years to finally come out and take a moral stand, and all it took was the death of one toddler
So why have we been outspending the rest of the EU on refugee camps in Turkey/Lebanon/Jordan for each of the last three years? Or does Mr Boyle favour grandstanding Angela 'opps! Close the borders!' Merkel?
If it has been going on for three years, Miss Vance, then it is attributable to the Coalition Government.
A little way back you were attributing it entirely to Cameron.
I think you ought to be consistent, at least.
Cameron is PM of both the coalition and this government......
The ones Sky interviewed on the Hungarian border didn't want to stay in Hungary - they wanted Germany and looked crushed when told the Germans had closed their border.
I can't imagine the refugees will want to hang around in Serbia for too long
The Hungarian army stood behind the barbed wire looked very menacing on the news this morning, not exactly the warm welcome the refugees expected.
Yet they are determined to get in, so many will go via Slovakia instead. It's not like they have a channel to cross. The new border checks will slow the pace of immigration, but thanks to Merkel's announcement it will be far, far higher than before the crisis.
And given that, we must be able to limit free movement. Germany can suspend Schengen "temporarily", so we can suspend free movement "temporarily".
Free movement is for EU citizens
And vast numbers of these migrants will get EU citizenship, as I have pointed out to you several times.
In all honesty I had thought that Corbyn would have properly smartened himself up one elected. But this half baked rubbish from him is plain pathetic. Turning up looking like Harry Hill on a bad day is beyond laughable. It does however confirm me in my belief that there is no need to go overboard with Corbyn, just the the drip drip of his own stupidity take its toll.
Mr. Rex, only in the short term. They gained some trade for a few decades. In the long term, the Ottomans got half of Europe.
Mr. M, the Comneni emperors showed substantial improvement was possible even after a bad period. The Angeli certainly buggered things up, but had they been replaced by a Basil II or John Comnenus the empire could have recovered. After the loss of the city, and its recapture, the Eastern Empire was on a rapid and unrelenting decline.
@Estobar sealed his/her reputation with his/her first word posted on PB. In reply to the famously-wrong-on-everything-except-the-Oscars-Rogerdamus, (s)he started with "Agreed". Genius..
As usual the Telegraph cut's through the crap of the remembrance day celebration and gets to the real significance of the occasion.......
But, but, but!
It's trending on Twitter, and don't you know that's terribly important?
Joking apart, he's going to have to raise his game and avoid unforced errors - it will be a steep learning curve - for someone whose views on the military are markedly out of the mainstream, avoiding giving his opponents further ammunition is simply good politics......perhaps his (smartly turned out) deputy could give him a few pointers....
My personal selection of the top #3 bad decisions in European history:
1. Jun 1941. "Let's invade Russia". A. Hitler. 2. Dec 1941. "Let's declare war on America". A. Hitler. 3. Jun 1812. "Let's invade Russia". N. Bonaparte.
4. Feb 1666. “Let’s import black rats”. Pet Emporium, Cricklewood High Street.
I would have thought "Let's exterminate millions of people in systematic death camps" would probably be #1.
Horrific as it sounds, had he not declared war on both Russia and the USA, he would likely have gotten away with his vile program. One of the most chilling books I've read addressed that - "Fatherland" by Robert Harris. Highly recommended.
Jeremy Corbyn should have appointed a woman to one of the top shadow ministerial jobs, the leader of the country’s biggest union has said.
Len McCluskey, the general secretary of the Unite union which backed Mr Corbyn in the leadership contest, said he was concerned about lack of top jobs for women in Mr Corbyn’s shadow Cabinet.
Comments
The tories' first task for me is to actually pin down what labour's policies are, especially on defence and immigration.
When those are known, Corbyn will either be a sell out to his supporters or toxic to the electorate.
Stay 43
Leave 40
17% DN
I wonder why...
In addition people will look at the pictures on the news and, whilst having sympathy for refugees have no appetite to house them.
Yes its wishful thinking but I'm beginning to think OUT is ever more likely.
Made me lay Burnham even more.
First Lord McAlpine, now this.
@JoeMurphyLondon: Sean Connery has issed a rally call for Scottish independence today "from his Bahamas home", reports the PA
Who do you think invaded half of Derby?
The Remain side will only win via neutralising the worries of staying by a solid renegotiation.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074934/Radio-1-host-bet-Cameron-1-000-not-win-hasn-t-paid-up.html
@jimwaterson: People really struggling to understand that reporters can both hold Corbyn to account and back him when he's correct http://t.co/94DKhFEx9w
Anyone?
If we can't renegotiate business regulation being brought back to the UK than we should definitely bring free movement of labour back. Otherwise there's nothing to be achieved.
To be honest, Germany suspends treaty obligations unilaterally, so there's no reason why we shouldn't get immigration policy back.
EDIT: No its not. My mistake.
I understand those things blow themselves up.
One day, this will be an extremely serious issue. The original 'Stepford Wives' is about 100 years ahead of its time.
The problem with all these measures now is that it's too late. Huge numbers of people from Africa and Asia have suddenly had this option raised to their consciousness. And the numbers arriving are now large enough that they can always overwhelm the border at some point. Once the Hungary-Serbia fence is secure, they will go via Romania into Hungary. Once that bit's secure, they will enter Ukraine and then into Slovakia and Poland. The UK has enough difficulty policing just one port, not thousands of miles of land fencing.
If the boundary review does go through, not only will Labour face a loss of seats due to that redistribution but incumbency factors will also be reduced. In one sense, that should hit the Tories more given that there are more Con than Lab seats. However, the main benefit of incumbency is as a protection against national unpopularity (and for whatever reason, Tories don't seem to benefit from it as much anyway). If a Corbyn-led Labour is as unpopular as some hope/fear, the new boundaries will remove another support underpinning Labour's performance (the same of course is true in reverse, if Labour dump Corbyn for someone more effective and popular, and if the Conservatives replace Cameron with a vote-loser).
Merkel has undoubtedly made one of the stupidest decisions and subsequent announcements in European history. She ought to go.
I know the earlier poll didn't but I believe the North West swings a lot more than the North East does. Looking at the names without double-checking I think more of those marginals are in the North West.
Interesting
Perhaps an ideal measure is to compare the debt-to-GDP ratio now against the same point in the previous economic cycle, and then to monitor the change in that figure from year to year. Quite how you measure it is another matter.
That isn;t really the point though. The point is that decisions taken by Germany could have an enormous material effect in Britain down the line as the refugees acquire German passports, and yet it is an action over which we have no say, control or sanction.
That is why people want out. Immigration isn't about immigrants, the EU isn't about the EU.
The issue is control, which the electorate correctly senses it is losing.
@TelegraphNews: Jeremy Corbyn arrives at Battle of Britain memorial service wearing shirt unbuttoned at the top… http://tgr.ph/1idsGCF
Every forecast about immigration has been wrong; whether that's Polish, Romanian and so forth. This is a fantastic country. That's why everyone wants to be here.
They've hit rock bottom when they follow your advice...
Not sure what Merkel's next move is.
And given that, we must be able to limit free movement. Germany can suspend Schengen "temporarily", so we can suspend free movement "temporarily".
Jacket undone, pen in top pocket too. What a disrespectful scruff bag.
Did they not teach him how to dress appropriately at the private schools he attended as a child?
I dress stylishly and expensively. Granted some of my fashion choices are reminiscent of Colin Baker's Doctor.
"Fraser's idee fixe on the debt is too rich for my moderately hawkish view on spending cuts"
Is there a 'translate' button somewhere?.
1. Jun 1941. "Let's invade Russia". A. Hitler.
2. Dec 1941. "Let's declare war on America". A. Hitler.
3. Jun 1812. "Let's invade Russia". N. Bonaparte.
North West:
Chester, Wirral W, Barrow, Lancaster, Copeland, Blackpool S, Burnley, Chorley, Hyndburn
Yorks & N/NE Lincs:
Halifax, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Scunthorpe
North East:
Mboro S (though it should be Yorkshire), Hartlepool, Darlington, B Auckland
However your point is well made, let's see how far she is prepared to go to get her way and what the ramifications are.
Mr. M, the Fourth Crusade should be at the top of the list.
"@TelegraphNews: Jeremy Corbyn arrives at Battle of Britain memorial service wearing shirt unbuttoned at the top… http://tgr.ph/1idsGCF"
As usual the Telegraph cut's through the crap of the remembrance day celebration and gets to the real significance of the occasion.......
There is 1 person currently in Parliament who served in the RAF at the time of the #BattleofBritain - Lord Quirk, who was in Bomber Command
A little way back you were attributing it entirely to Cameron.
I think you ought to be consistent, at least.
"I agree with Nick" has been replaced with "I disagree with Jez" #NewPolitics #BBCDP
It does however confirm me in my belief that there is no need to go overboard with Corbyn, just the the drip drip of his own stupidity take its toll.
I would have thought "Let's exterminate millions of people in systematic death camps" would probably be #1.
Mr. M, the Comneni emperors showed substantial improvement was possible even after a bad period. The Angeli certainly buggered things up, but had they been replaced by a Basil II or John Comnenus the empire could have recovered. After the loss of the city, and its recapture, the Eastern Empire was on a rapid and unrelenting decline.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/782001/#Comment_782001
It's trending on Twitter, and don't you know that's terribly important?
Joking apart, he's going to have to raise his game and avoid unforced errors - it will be a steep learning curve - for someone whose views on the military are markedly out of the mainstream, avoiding giving his opponents further ammunition is simply good politics......perhaps his (smartly turned out) deputy could give him a few pointers....
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html
1. Jun 1941. "Let's invade Russia". A. Hitler.
2. Dec 1941. "Let's declare war on America". A. Hitler.
3. Jun 1812. "Let's invade Russia". N. Bonaparte.
4. Feb 1666. “Let’s import black rats”. Pet Emporium, Cricklewood High Street.
http://tinyurl.com/pygcqp8