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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters might have to start applying a shy Labour filter
Judging by the opening attacks from the Conservatives greeting Jeremy Corbyn being elected Labour leader you get the feeling Corbyn’s victory was foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon.
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Will the last Labour voter please turn the lights out ....
Another straw for Labour supporters to clutch at.......
very positive
Could be interesting, given the double games of Tudor Catholic families, composers. Anne Boleyn's choice of music may have acted as a signal for her support for Protestantism. Given the paranoia of the time about subversive religious influences it was a brave move.
Nervous Tories might seek reasons to be worried by JC, but there aren't any. He is a glorious gift. As he has shown since Saturday.
Wilson said Labour is morally conceited or it is nothing, or something very like that. It will be the last thing to go. When every choice has been shown to be idiotic, damaging and completely impractical Labour supporters will know that they meant well and are the better for it.
The question is whether Corbyn's overall platform will be attractive to enough voters to make him PM.
What's certain though is that the tories badly miscalculated with their national security message and it has backfired on them, which serves them right for being so negative. One of Cameron's great weaknesses is a tendency to come over as bullying.
There is another large group of shy Labour voters in addition to those TSE identifies, and that's those who'll vote Labour for local reasons such as the candidate or liking what a local Labour council is doing (though this may be offset by left-leaning voters who won't vote Labour for similarly local reasons).
But the big picture is that Corbyn will turn off far more than he'll enthuse. Undoubtedly, there is a very vocal section who are delighted by his election but there'll be more who might like some aspects of his policy manifesto from outside the consensus but still won't vote for him because of one (and probably more than one) red light in another area: too risky on the economy, or on defence, or taxes or whatever.
But next year might be a different matter.
In the second place you vastly, vastly, over-estimate the importance of newspapers. People don't read the dead tree press like they used to. Readership is dropping like a stone. In fact I know no-one under the age of 40 who reads them except the commuter freebies. These are circulation figures, let alone readership. The days when newspapers are that important has passed http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/apr/10/national-daily-newspapers-lose-more-than-half-a-million-readers-in-past-year
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_circulation
You are fighting the last parliament's battles. Ed and Tom thought that bashing Murdoch would help win them the election. They were wrong.
Worse, they utterly ignored the far worse crimes that occurred at the Mirror Group. Except they did not, of course. Because the 'crimes' they were interested in were nothing to do with phone hacking, but the 'crime' of not supporting Labour.
Likewise, BJO's posting of a particularly pathetic poster last night shows that Labour supporters have not even begun too decipher why their efforts utterly failed at the GE. Instead, they're regressing to their comfort ground, which in reality is a padded room in a particularly secure mental unit.
LD conference may be interesting too. Will they lurch left as well?
And welcome to PB.com - lurker, or have you regenerated like the Doctor?
A fair proportion of these groups in the South will remember Corbyn's support for the IRA, and other unpopular causes, (not with affection). The Labour Party in Islington split, look at early SDP founders.
This from 2001 BBC coverage. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/constituencies/341.stm
Re Cameron and Corbyn over security, ill judged defence reviews don't help your case to kick Jezza.
The real issue will be whether the soft left new Labourites will vote for him. Now that's a very different and more real issue.
Shy Corbyn isn't going to happen. The man is marmite, in fact he is marmite that's gone off.. There wont be any hovering over ballots in 2020 unless its long term Labour voters unable to vote for the loony left.
It's chilling.
No, the real importance is to pull British political discourse not just left but out of the Murdoch media lock and he's already done it. We're debating things on here and in the country that have been largely untouched for twenty years. We are starting to face up to issues in both domestic and international policy that were taken as no-go's. It's a sea change, a shift in zeitgeist, that is ultimately very, very, good for the future.
BTW, it's be good if you learnt to add (snip) to posts when you've snipped them, just to avoid misrepresenting people.
Oh, and I'm not a Tory (tm).
Aside from that, good post.
The obit for the previous Islington North MP.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/obituary-michael-ohalloran-1125332.html
In fact, it's chilling.
This section won't decide any election though as it will - and has repeatedly- voted for a donkey with a red rosette.
Do you really think the DUP, UUP or even Lib Dems are going to vote Corbyn into Downing St? On a Vote of Confidence, Cameron can count on a minimum majority of about 40 at the moment.
'Best PM - Corbyn vs Cameron - net Corbyn:
18-34: +5
35-55: -19
55+: -35
Corbyn fit to be PM - Net agree:
18-34: +10
35-55: -8
55+: -27
Corbyn still Labour leader at GE2020: Net agree:
18-34: +28
35-55: +10
55+: 0
Corbyn leader makes you more likely to vote Labour: Net
18-34: +10
35-55: -5
55+: -20
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Corbyn-Full-Data-Tables.pdf
If you had your time again I think you would have phrased that more felicitously and appropriately. There's no need to descend to the red-top standards on here with insinuations of lunacy against those with whom one disagrees.
Bedlam is a literal and metaphorical place where we scapegoat those with whom we disagree (so, Jacque Derrida). It's a chilling concept.
Should women be appointed to senior position in Government, or are they only good for cleaning houses and making babies?
Are terrorists the good guys who should be honoured?
Is Zimbabwe a good economic model to follow?
Is it time to forget Remembrance Day? It's a tragedy.
The discourses you find so astonishing today will be the bread and butter of tomorrow.
And you still think they should be honoured?
Th reason we stopped talking about most of Corbyn's agenda 20 years ago is becuase it was bat-shit crazy then, and hasn't aged well
It's Vere's boy you need to keep an eye on...
And I would not rephrase, as it is clearly appropriate. Many Labour supporters are reverting to a position that is frankly mad, mainly because it has been tried and had not worked (e.g. your constant droning on about Murdoch).
And for another thing, there is a difference between saying someone's comfort zone is in a padded room in a mental hospital, and saying that they should be locked up in a mental institution. A distinction you do not seem able to grasp.
Just look at your apparent fixation on Murdoch. Its chilling how someone so routinely fails to learn the lessons of the immediate past.
Chilling.
Yes I do think it's time to move on from Remembrance Day. I think we should say 'thank you, thank you for sacrificing, thank you for what you did in the cause you were told, and may have believed, was right. We thank you.'
But now it's time to move on. By the way, I know many many people, including Conservative voters, who privately agree with me on this.
Not only is it to thank those who have passed before, but also to remind all of us of the cost of war, now and in the future....
The success of Blair was to keep all the diverse parts of Labour together: socially conservative WWC, metropolitan elites and ethnic minorities. That coalition is now falling apart - the WWC now has an alternative in UKIP and (less commented on) parts of the ethnic minority base are less committed to Labour than before (as an example, the fact that both Ealing Central and Brentford were won by Labour with very slender majorities).
Corbyn will only accelerate this: yes, he makes the metro elite part of the coalition feel warm and fuzzy but his past antics will finally break the bonds with the WWC (and, no, they do not vote unblinkingly for Labour - some do, but many because they did not have an alternative they would consider i.e. UKIP) and, probably, certain sections of the ethnic minority vote.
The fact that the government of that day and future days had to deal with those murderous thugs does not vindicate or excuse what he did. It was and remains shameful.
So I am with JJ. The analogy is apt, though padded cells have long since been replaced by the chemical cosh.
Cameron's govenment bombed Libya and we now have the greatest refugee crisis since the war......
Trident can never be used whereas the 20 NHS hospitals you could build with the money could make the UK one of the safest cancer centres in the world saving tens of thousands of lives each year....
One of the most intractable conflicts of the last century was brought about by bringing the IRA to the table......
Saudi Arabia have performed more public beheadings in front of school children than were killed in the 9/11 bombings. Cameron described King Saud as our very dear friend and ally. Is it appropriate to sell arms to a regime which flogs women for driving a car and not covering their head?
If 'we' have ideals that matter to me they are the belief in tolerance and democracy, ideals that I find under threat not from Corbyn but from Cameron. Henry G Manson put it all very well yesterday: a crushing of the only thing left that makes Britain worth its Britishness.
As for the Refugee Crisis, Cameron has spent twice as much on refugee camps where they are needed - on Syria's borders, than the next biggest EU contributor - Germany - and more than the rest of EU governments combined.
Meanwhile 'Friend of the People Smugglers - Come one Come all' Merkel has had to close her border with Austria and suspended the Schengen agreement......
A more perfect description of Corbyn's agenda may be hard to find...
@susie_dent: To be betwattled (be-twat-tled) is to be perplexed, confused, or surprised by something, or in a state of general befuddlement. Morning all.
I wear a red poppy, and remembrance for me has a lot to do with respect, but do nations with remembrance celebrations behave less aggressively or more aggressively? IS is obsessed with "martyrs" as is Hamas and any number of other beligerent groups.
Re shy labour, I can see it happening given the attacks they will get. Core Corbynistas see being so as a badge of pride, but there are policies of his which people like but they are embarrassed but other bits or the Corbynistas themselves. Few people here in the Tory shires would openly admit to supporting labour under Corbyn I suspect.
My generation is the first that has not had to fight to defend our national interest. I'll never forget the sacrifices my ancestors made, and I am incredibly proud to be British. I'll probably never understand people like Estobar.
Doing well - net - vs May 1
Cameron: -33 (+1)
Sturgeon: +39* (-17)
* A positively North Korean 99 among SNP supporters
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j7hwibrj70/Times_ScotlandResults_150910_PartyQuestions_W3.pdf
In all seriousness, there's no danger of her becoming unpopular any time soon, just going from deity to demigod.
He will perform poorly as Labour leader, but and much more importantly, he will not enjoy the job.
The value bet at the moment is the double: Labour to win the next GE, Corbyn not to be leader.