What will the people on the centre-right of the Labour Party do? The ones who are aghast, distraught and bewildered at the Corbynpocalypse?
They won't split away and form a new SDP-type party, because the collective folk memory of the history of the SDP is clear enough to know that it would be damaging to the long-term interests of the left and centre-left.
They won't defect en masse to the Liberal Democrats, because the LibDems are still toxic after the Coalition.
So they will have to stay in the Labour Party, and struggle and prepare within, in the hope that eventually something will "happen" to restore a more normal form of politics. That would probably (but not certainly) involve Jeremy Corbyn ceasing to be the Leader of the Labour Party, but the mechanism for how that would happen is wide open. Or, as individual party members, they would just get fed up and leave without joining another party.
All of which makes me more concerned about the possibility (unfortunately, greater than zero) that Jeremy Corbyn might actually one day become Prime Minister.
(OT) Actuarially, my estimates concerning the life expectancy of Denis Healey and Vera Lynn is that there is a probability of approximately:
24% that they will both still be alive at the age of 100; 25% that they will both be dead before the age of 100; 33% that Vera Lynn will be alive aged 100, but that Dennis Healey won't be; 18% that Dennis Healey will be alive aged 100, but that Vera Lynn won't be.
......centre left parties have become increasingly divided between low income voters who often have quite traditional views on cultural matters and the increasingly dominant liberal middle class (public sector professionals and Guardian readers in the newspaper shorthand) who occupy the other end of the values spectrum on many of the biggest issues of the day such as immigration, welfare, Europe, family. This divided base is one of the reasons why so few Labour politicians have been able to speak with any conviction in recent years. Corbyn has not resolved the conflict he simply ignores it.
(OT) ...and, if one does not take into account the state of their health and if one calculates purely according to their age, the probability of reaching the age of 100 is approximately:
6.8% for the Queen 10.9% for the Duke of Edinburgh.
None of the top five - Corbyn, Watson, McDonnell, Burnham, Benn - has had a job outside of politics since university, as far as I can tell..... .....A list to which (if you include political journalism) you can add Abbot, De Piero, Alexander, Eagle, Powell, Dugher, Winterton.... ...So far, only Vernon Coaker (teacher), Lord Falconer (lawyer), Seema Malhotra (mgt consult) & Ian Murray (charity/SME) have ... .....had a career of any significance which was unrelated to politics, let alone in the private sector. That's remarkable.
Not having a job outside politics is only a problem if it's Tories or PPE labour types.
"01:08: SB: Gloria De Piero not going to Shadow Defence, at least not yet. Sorry about that, the journalist responsible for reporting it will be shot. And that's all from us for tonight."
Comments
The ones who are aghast, distraught and bewildered at the Corbynpocalypse?
They won't split away and form a new SDP-type party, because the collective folk memory of the history of the SDP is clear enough to know that it would be damaging to the long-term interests of the left and centre-left.
They won't defect en masse to the Liberal Democrats, because the LibDems are still toxic after the Coalition.
So they will have to stay in the Labour Party, and struggle and prepare within, in the hope that eventually something will "happen" to restore a more normal form of politics. That would probably (but not certainly) involve Jeremy Corbyn ceasing to be the Leader of the Labour Party, but the mechanism for how that would happen is wide open. Or, as individual party members, they would just get fed up and leave without joining another party.
All of which makes me more concerned about the possibility (unfortunately, greater than zero) that Jeremy Corbyn might actually one day become Prime Minister.
24% that they will both still be alive at the age of 100;
25% that they will both be dead before the age of 100;
33% that Vera Lynn will be alive aged 100, but that Dennis Healey won't be;
18% that Dennis Healey will be alive aged 100, but that Vera Lynn won't be.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/labour-leadership-does-it-matter-if-the-left-is-unelectable
6.8% for the Queen
10.9% for the Duke of Edinburgh.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34241395
"01:08: SB: Gloria De Piero not going to Shadow Defence, at least not yet. Sorry about that, the journalist responsible for reporting it will be shot. And that's all from us for tonight."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/whos-jeremy-corbyns-shadow-cabinet