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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sadiq could be quite hard for Zac or any other Tory to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sadiq could be quite hard for Zac or any other Tory to beat
Just ask Lynton Crosby. Winning the London mayoralty is all about getting your own supporters out to vote in an an election that has struggled in the past to attract turnout levels of more than 40%.
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"I won't be voting for Jeremy Corbyn and I don't think he can lead us to election victory in 2020."
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=960090640710390&id=275283499191111
*my highest term of praise.
This focus on Labour "needing to win the Tory suburbs" is a red herring in a proportional system -- if they do a better job of maximising turnout in their inner London heartlands, they win.
This is going to be a very entertaining Party Conference season!
Sadiq Khan received more than twice the votes that Tim Farron got to become leader the Lib Dems nationally.
It's an extinction event
We should get some straight Khan v Goldsmith polling soon, I guess.
All Voters
Carson 51% (36%)
Clinton 46% (60%)
Clinton 50% (53%)
Bush 46% (41%)
Clinton 50% (52%)
Trump 46% (43%)
Registered Voters
Carson 51% (–)
Clinton 46% (–)
Bush 49% (43%)
Clinton 47% (52%)
Trump 48% (45%)
Clinton 48% (51%)
All Voters
Carson 50%
Biden 47%
Biden 53%
Bush 43%
Biden 57%
Trump 41%
Registered Voters
Carson 50%
Biden 47%
Biden 52%
Bush 44%
Biden 54%
Trump 44%
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/hillary-clinton-poll-women/
Trump – 27% (10)
Carson – 21% (10)
Cruz – 9% (9)
Bush – 6% (8)
Fiorina – 5% (3)
Kasich – 5% (2)
Rubio – 5% (7)
Huckabee – 4% (5)
Paul – 4% (9)
Walker – 3% (18)
Jindal – 2% (3)
Christie – 1% (1)
Graham – 1% (1)
Perry – 1% (4)
Santorum – 1% (4)
Gilmore – 0% (-)
Pataki – 0% (0)
Undecided – 4% (5)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2278
It's becoming clear that the right of Labour saw the "union vote" as a bloc vote, when it was really a reflection of a large amount of genuine left-wing grassroots Labour voters. Progress etc were able to diminished the unions but not the union members, unintentionally empowering the silent majority of traditional Labour supporters with a voice, power and prominence. In hindsight, it was clear there was hubristic and dismissive attitude among much of "New Labour" about left-wing voters, believing that more open primaries would inevitably lead to more right-wing candidates, not understanding that it would attract the people who they have been pushing away.
The election has also demonstrated that there is a vast disconnect between the PLP and much of the Labour voter base, with Labour drifting way too far to the right for the tastes of many of its supporters. This was clearly bubbling beneath the surface and something eventually had to give, and perhaps this is just the start of a broader shift in the Labour party (I've ran out of metaphors to mix).
I just can't see how getting a few Muslim Tories to switch over counter-acts those potential losses, if it does acquire a religious aspect.
If ISIS slips through our intelligence net and commits a spectacular in the capital before the Mayoral, I can't see how he stops some of that attaching to him. It only needs one of his activists to say something supportive of ISIS on Facebook or Twitter in response - and he will be pedaling backwards in ever decreasing circles.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2015/09/those-voters-who-abandoned-labour-in-may-could-be-lost-to-them-for-the-long-term.html
Khan winning could be a disaster for Labour nationally.
What is popular in London might look ghastly everywhere else.
And of course, with the media being so very London-centric, what is happening in London gets well advertised all around the country.
Some of them won't. Look at the fracturing in Tower Hamlets.
With Hillary's lead tumbling (completely lost in NH and Iowa) nationally, and the three most common unprompted words offered to describe her as 'liar', 'dishonest' and 'untrustworthy', the political space for a Biden entry is getting ever bigger.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/joe-biden-2016-campaign-taking-shape-213545
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/642128129444716548
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/29/tony-blair-labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn
I expect many of the Blairites to spend the Corbyn years making some money and staying away from the frontline of politics other than to occasionally plot his overthrow, much as Tory modernisers and Europhiles did in the IDS years, Heseltine, Clarke, Portillo and Maude certainly were more favourable towards Blair than IDS
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/sep/11/mecca-crane-crash-more-than-50-dead-at-grand-mosque-live
On September 11th.
Personally i think Britain is missing out, the majority of the Syrians arriving in Europe are highly educated, mobile, middle class who will im sure be economically beneficial. I would have no problem with similar numbers to Germany being taken in by us, as long as housing and other infrastructure and services were provided. The Muslim population of Britain is dominated by those of Pakistani & Bengali heritage with a small but growing Somali population, allowing a large number of Syrians (500,000+) would actually diversify the population and break the dominance of those either from the Indian sub continent or with that heritage.
We must stop Khan at all costs, even if it means a divisive campaign. He would be a complete and utter disaster, think Lutfur Rahman on a larger scale with a budget 10x as large to funnel into Muslim special interest groups.
http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race
https://twitter.com/Channel4News?lang=en-gb
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR
And I'm pretty sure our tertiary education system, for all its flaws, is better than theirs.
What is stunningly clear from the movements in polling over recent years is how the denying of full Federalism appears to have done more than anything to promote the growth of the call for Independence.
If you look back to 2005, given a choice of Independence, Federalism, Status Quo (Autonomous Community) and status as a Region (more integration), Independence was only backed by 13.6% of the population.
Over time this has grown to a peak in 2013 at 48% and currently sits around the 40% mark (last poll 37.6%) while there's been a significant drop not just in the status quo but the numbers who back Federalism. Meanwhile support for Federalism has plummeted even faster than support for the Status Quo. The Federal option is becoming as relevant as the Liberals.
Interestingly, I don't recall recent polls in Scotland asking the three part question, some have asked if people support FFA but not as an alternative to Independence.
The assumption has always been that about 30% back Independence, 30% Union and 40% a Federal option/DevoMax/FFA for Scotland. I wonder if this assumption can still be relied upon.
There are quite a few people running around scratching their heads. Well, let me help.
The moment the zeitgeist changed was the moment Britain woke up and realised it wasn't getting another LibDem-Con coalition but a Conservative Government. Although some of us thought this would happen, it caught most people unawares.
For the past x years the left has been served not by Labour, which under the Blairites wasn't remotely left, but by the Liberal Democrats with the Greens.
Now the forces are uniting, and partly in real anger, behind Corbyn and Khan.
Many assume Corbyn cannot win, which may be true, but politics in Britain is about to become very interesting indeed. Remember, the Tories have a wafer thin majority: the slimmest for 40 years. You just wait until the shine comes off ...
Jez is going to win because Labour could not find anyone else with anything about them
Britain may appear comfortably middle class and right of centre ... to those living in Primrose Hill.
The only thing he guarantees is that your will never win another election (probably ever) and your oblivion in Scotland will happen much, much faster.
This is in no way a criticism of Khan as the Labour mayoral candidate. However, most Jews tend to be hostile to those perceived as anti-Zionist, as they will be to Corbyn (should he become Labour leader).
But the C4 cameraman was not a justified example, he was perfectly right to yell at an idiot putting him into a potentially harmful situation. In your face press harassment outside of chasing down wrongdoers who are refusing to be interviewed really is out of hand these days.
Ken also got a lot of support from the WWC who are much less likely to support Khan. The few Muslim Tories that may switch to Labour won't make up for the loss of the WWC who probably won't bother voting at all given the choices.
Khan won't win against Goldsmith, he might have done against other Tory candidates, but against Goldsmith he won't. Goldsmith is better looking version of Boris. He will even begin to go by his first name soon, it will be Zac vs Khan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMQLSkM1_sU
Jess Phillips attacks Corbyn for being a white male.
Corbyn will be utterly toxic in Scotland. His IRA fanatacism will be felt there more than anywhere else Labour stands for election.
Have to say I was surprised Sadiq Khan won the Labour Mayoral nomination so easily. The question is now whether he can deliver London for Labour next year.
I suspect the MaxPBs of this world would have been rushing to the Tory flag even if Tessa Jowell had won and the battle won't be won or lost in my part of London either. London isn't uniform - it has a diverse number of areas with their own characteristics and what plays well in one area might not do so in another.
That said, it's much more about getting out the vote - if the new Labour machine can get supporters to vote for Khan, especially in the inner suburbs, the Conservatives will have a real fight. Oddly enough, we could have the 2020 Mayoral Election on General Election day but that's a long way down the road.
As the Evening Standard pointed out, both Labour and Conservative candidates are opposed to Heathrow expansion which will be interesting given the apparent direction in Government policy. Would a pro-expansion candidate have a chance ? Perhaps not but it would be interesting to see such a candidate argue the case for expanding Heathrow against, for example, the currently heavily publicised option of expanding Gatwick.
Over my side of town, the pro-Heathrow argument would have a better hearing and proponents of Heathrow argue airport expansion would provide a huge boost to the area.
As we saw with last night's scenes in Islington, Corbyn is likely to remain in campaign mode for some months to come. I'd anticipate him hitting the Uni campuses hard selling his anti establishment message. Come 2020, If Corbyn is still in situ, the student vote could be an interesting weapon as they can deploy their votes at home or Uni !!
I think im typical of the £3 supporter, not a Labour party member, never have been but did vote for them at 2015 and have voted for them before. Im not a infiltrator, Tory or hard Left. I voted for Corbyn no other preferences for the Leadership, Tom Watson for Deputy Leadership and in the London Mayoralty 1st preference, Diane Abbott, 2nd preference Sadiq Khan.
There is nothing particularly moral about leaving your country undefended, spending money that you don't have, or taxing hard-working families to support those who won't work. As for deceiving the public into believing that you can find £120million from the back of the fiscal sofa...
I'm not claiming superiority for any set of ideas, but the idea of Corbyn claiming the moral high ground on any of these issues really flies in the face of reason.
Incidentally, I believe he committed to having women as half his shadow cabinet; where are they all going to come from given the very small number of MPs that have pledged support for him?
I honestly don't think there's a Tory MP who would be as bad as Corbyn.
Depressing reading. Identity politics is vile.