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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voting has closed now and the speculation begins

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voting has closed now and the speculation begins

Predicted #Labour vote shares, based on Ladbrokes' odds. Corbyn wins on first preferences. pic.twitter.com/EgaL2onfCu

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Comments

  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Diane Abbott would be a free ticket for Zac - here's hoping...
  • Abbott ..staggers the imagination.. but let it be..
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].
  • Scott_P said:

    @Politicalintel: Liz Kendall has conceded defeat in the Labour leadership election http://bit.ly/1Q3qybT #Labourleader

    "She vowed to continue to serve but ruled out a role as shadow minister in a Corbyn-led party because she does not agree with some of his key ideas."

    Don't think Corbyn would have offered her a position but that's of little comfort. - I also doubt we'll hear anything more of Ms Kendall for another five years.
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
  • I don't neccessarly see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.

    What it does show is that union invovlement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.
  • I wonder, could this election campaign have been more damaging to Labour if they had tried?
    No matter who wins now, the whole things reeks of incompetence.

    Best case scenario for Labour: Cooper squeaks home and spends the next few years trying to build up a meaningful centre-left base in the party.
    If the £3ers take umbrage and feck-off, then surely that has to be a good thing for the party, no?

  • Mr. Eagles, you always blame auto-correct.
  • I don't neccessarly see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.

    What it does show is that union invovlement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.

    True... Wife iswas a member of Unite and most certainly not a Labour voter.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/09/project-red-dawn/

    Project Red Dawn looks to me more about the Twilight of the Sods.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    John_M said:

    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].

    Perhaps he could get a good EU renegotiation? I see Osborne was calling for treaty change to protect the City of London in today's FT.

    If Cameron either negotiates a major package and successfully wins the referendum, or if he calls for us to quit and leads the UK out of the EU, he will go down as a great Tory Prime Minister.

    If the public votes the opposite way to him, or if we stay in based on a shoddy deal that doesn't work (e.g. by not curbing immigration), he'll ruin his legacy.

    Interesting times.
  • I don't neccessarly see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.

    What it does show is that union invovlement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.

    Everyone in the union section had to sign up as a supporter in order to vote. So that's 70% of those who did that not then voting.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2015

    Everyone in the union section had to sign up as a supporter in order to vote. So that's 70% of those who did that not then voting.

    There was a suggestion (sorry, I can't remember where I read it) that a lot of the union affiliates were simply responding to a phone call from the union asking them to sign up. If they said yes, the union would sign them up and they didn't have to do anything positive. That sounds quite plausible, and would explain why few of them then went on to vote.

    Not sure whether this would help or hinder Corbyn.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    JEO said:

    John_M said:

    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].

    Perhaps he could get a good EU renegotiation? I see Osborne was calling for treaty change to protect the City of London in today's FT.

    If Cameron either negotiates a major package and successfully wins the referendum, or if he calls for us to quit and leads the UK out of the EU, he will go down as a great Tory Prime Minister.

    If the public votes the opposite way to him, or if we stay in based on a shoddy deal that doesn't work (e.g. by not curbing immigration), he'll ruin his legacy.

    Interesting times.
    Giving the British people a say can never ruin a legacy, that is an absurd suggestion. If he loses the referendum he will still go down as a great Tory Prime Minister - deal with it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Wasn't the union turnout down around 10% last time around?
  • Tom Holland ‏@holland_tom 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Excited to learn the new leader of the opposition will be invited to a white tie do with the Queen next month. That shld give good pictures.

    lols...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979
    Of course, it is possible that in the absence of a thread explaining how it works, TSE just hasn't got the hang of AV....?
  • David Davis? How did he feel? Burnham must be in a very bad place to emote with him. Davis could have been Home Secretary now if he had not concocted some fake reason to resign, all in the expectation of forcing Cameron out or Cameron losing in 2010.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979
    Andy Burnham understanding what it must be like to fail to be leader of the Conservative Party??? Those Corbynistas were right all along then!
  • Pauly said:

    JEO said:

    John_M said:

    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].

    Perhaps he could get a good EU renegotiation? I see Osborne was calling for treaty change to protect the City of London in today's FT.

    If Cameron either negotiates a major package and successfully wins the referendum, or if he calls for us to quit and leads the UK out of the EU, he will go down as a great Tory Prime Minister.

    If the public votes the opposite way to him, or if we stay in based on a shoddy deal that doesn't work (e.g. by not curbing immigration), he'll ruin his legacy.

    Interesting times.
    Giving the British people a say can never ruin a legacy, that is an absurd suggestion. If he loses the referendum he will still go down as a great Tory Prime Minister - deal with it.
    If he leads us out or if he fails to win a referendum to keep us in, then he's likely to go down as the man who let Scotland leave the unions and lost rUK it's best markets.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    David Davis? How did he feel? Burnham must be in a very bad place to emote with him. Davis could have been Home Secretary now if he had not concocted some fake reason to resign, all in the expectation of forcing Cameron out or Cameron losing in 2010.

    Davis was really on the wrong side of the argument there wasn't he.
  • David Davis? How did he feel? Burnham must be in a very bad place to emote with him. Davis could have been Home Secretary now if he had not concocted some fake reason to resign, all in the expectation of forcing Cameron out or Cameron losing in 2010.

    Correct.

    He's now the man who used to be David Davis.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    How's your new job? Hope its what you hoped for.

    David Davis? How did he feel? Burnham must be in a very bad place to emote with him. Davis could have been Home Secretary now if he had not concocted some fake reason to resign, all in the expectation of forcing Cameron out or Cameron losing in 2010.

    Correct.

    He's now the man who used to be David Davis.
  • I don't necessarily see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.
    What it does show is that union involvement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.

    Everyone in the union section had to sign up as a supporter in order to vote. So that's 70% of those who did that not then voting.
    Will we find out how the Union section voted? I see it as the majority not liking any candidate. It seems plausible that the majority of those that could be motivated were so by Corbyn who was after all the Union leaders' recommendation. I do agree that this points to union members (especially outside of the hatchet mobs in the transport and public sector) not being attracted to the Labour party.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    Pauly said:

    JEO said:

    John_M said:

    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].

    Perhaps he could get a good EU renegotiation? I see Osborne was calling for treaty change to protect the City of London in today's FT.

    If Cameron either negotiates a major package and successfully wins the referendum, or if he calls for us to quit and leads the UK out of the EU, he will go down as a great Tory Prime Minister.

    If the public votes the opposite way to him, or if we stay in based on a shoddy deal that doesn't work (e.g. by not curbing immigration), he'll ruin his legacy.

    Interesting times.
    Giving the British people a say can never ruin a legacy, that is an absurd suggestion. If he loses the referendum he will still go down as a great Tory Prime Minister - deal with it.
    If he leads us out or if he fails to win a referendum to keep us in, then he's likely to go down as the man who let Scotland leave the unions and lost rUK it's best markets.
    They've had their once in a generation referendum - personally I think Scotland will vote with the UK if we ever do leave, but that's another story.
  • @MSmithsonPB: So I didn't after all get a LAB leadership vote. I want my £3 back.
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    A new species of human has been discovered. Apparently Homo Naledi could have used tools:

    http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/LIVE-Huge-fossil-discovery-to-be-revealed-20150910

    Scientists are speculating that the newly discovered species could be the much fabled "missing link" between humans and the left wing of the Labour party.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2015
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/who-will-be-jeremy-corbyn-s-shadow-chancellor
    Fellow left-winger John McDonnell has long been the favourite but Angela Eagle and Owen Smith are being tipped by MPs.
    And http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/things-youll-miss-about-the-labour-leadership-campaign :lol:
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Tom Holland ‏@holland_tom 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Excited to learn the new leader of the opposition will be invited to a white tie do with the Queen next month. That shld give good pictures.

    lols...

    Corbyn in white tie, with a vest and no jacket probably.
  • JEO said:

    John_M said:

    Diane Abbott? Cameron must have found a genie's lamp, it's the only logical explanation for what's happened since May :).

    On the off chance you haven't used them all up Mr Cameron, please join me in wishing Juncker would disappear [ * wishes furiously * ].

    Perhaps he could get a good EU renegotiation? I see Osborne was calling for treaty change to protect the City of London in today's FT.

    If Cameron either negotiates a major package and successfully wins the referendum, or if he calls for us to quit and leads the UK out of the EU, he will go down as a great Tory Prime Minister.

    If the public votes the opposite way to him, or if we stay in based on a shoddy deal that doesn't work (e.g. by not curbing immigration), he'll ruin his legacy.
    Interesting times.
    Correct it is interesting times. And with the inevitable ever closer union of the Eurozone there will have to be treaty change in respect of our interests in the city of London. I do not see Cameron or Osborne being blindly europhile on any of this. What I do see is potential difficulty in getting some arrangement with the EU if we do leave that also protects our inward investment record and again the City's interests, earnings, jobs and tax revenues.
    Latest figures suggest manufacturing exports to the rest of the world are being hit but not to Europe. On the other hand some say that early holidays by car manufacturers are affecting figures.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    I don't neccessarly see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.

    What it does show is that union invovlement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.

    True... Wife iswas a member of Unite and most certainly not a Labour voter.
    I believe that at the last 2 GEs Unite membership voting has been Labour around or just below half.
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
  • A reminder the betting markets are not infallible

    @MSmithsonPB: Cooper is 8/1 on Betfair to win which is tighter than the 10/1 being offered on a CON majority AFTER the GE2015 exit poll was published
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited September 2015

    Scott_P said:

    @Politicalintel: Liz Kendall has conceded defeat in the Labour leadership election http://bit.ly/1Q3qybT #Labourleader

    "She vowed to continue to serve but ruled out a role as shadow minister in a Corbyn-led party because she does not agree with some of his key ideas."

    Don't think Corbyn would have offered her a position but that's of little comfort. - I also doubt we'll hear anything more of Ms Kendall for another five years.
    We will not hear from Kendall ever again. Her views are not unreasonable but she is inept at describing and developing them, and the Labour party are more likely to lynch her than listen to her anyway.
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    That's not what it says.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    With eyes on Europe, Iraqis line-up to leave Baghdad:

    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/09/05/437727526/with-eyes-on-europe-iraqis-line-up-to-leave-baghdad

    At first it seems lively outside on the weekend in Baghdad — the lights are bright in open-air cafes, music streams from beribboned cars in a wedding party and at Ali Hussein's juice stand, decorated with plastic bananas, they're squeezing oranges on old brass presses.

    But even as Hussein offers me a sharp, fresh juice, he's downcast. When I ask about the subject on everyone's mind here — the migrant flood into Europe — he laughs. "We were just talking about this!" he says. Several of his friends just passed by to say farewell.

    They heard that German Chancellor Angela Merkel was welcoming Iraqis. "Each one said, 'I'm traveling,' 'I'm traveling,' 'I'm traveling,' " says Hussein. All want to be smuggled to Europe.

    Conversations in the Iraqi capital, between the rich and the poor, travel agents, taxi drivers and demonstrators in Friday protests, show a city galvanized by the news from Europe. The violence and decrepitude here are nothing new, but now there is a perception of an opportunity for an alternative, and many are seizing it.
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    Only if you don't have a fixed office.
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    Is it correct to say we are not bound by this? I thought we had an opt out from the working time directive.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't neccessarly see the low union turnout to be bad for Corbyn. The ones which do vote there are likely to be the die-hard political motivated ones which are more likely to vote for him.

    What it does show is that union invovlement is not a sign of being hugely attracted to be labour party.

    And that therefore the political fund should be directed at the members' discretion rather than by the order of the leadership...?
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.

    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    David Davis? How did he feel? Burnham must be in a very bad place to emote with him. Davis could have been Home Secretary now if he had not concocted some fake reason to resign, all in the expectation of forcing Cameron out or Cameron losing in 2010.

    Burnham knows what it is to be a joke...

  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    I was ecstatic when they announced a new series of Twin Peaks, she was not.

    It is back, but now in 2017 now
  • TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    I was ecstatic when they announced a new series of Twin Peaks, she was not.

    It is back, but now in 2017 now
    Better they do it right than do it fast.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,517

    Scott_P said:

    @Politicalintel: Liz Kendall has conceded defeat in the Labour leadership election http://bit.ly/1Q3qybT #Labourleader

    "She vowed to continue to serve but ruled out a role as shadow minister in a Corbyn-led party because she does not agree with some of his key ideas."

    Don't think Corbyn would have offered her a position but that's of little comfort. - I also doubt we'll hear anything more of Ms Kendall for another five years.
    Back to obscurity for her
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.

    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that contracts can stipulate how close you live?

    Or that asking the question becomes illegal in interviews?
  • MattW said:

    JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.

    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that contracts can stipulate how close you live?

    Or that asking the question becomes illegal in interviews?
    It's a non-issue really. The judgement is in keeping with the spirit and intention of the WTD.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    No, it's not for commuting.

  • Keep going Corbyn...ISIS loves you..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    Keep going Corbyn...ISIS loves you..

    Glad he waited until after the ballot closed to drop that one.
  • Everyone in the union section had to sign up as a supporter in order to vote. So that's 70% of those who did that not then voting.

    There was a suggestion (sorry, I can't remember where I read it) that a lot of the union affiliates were simply responding to a phone call from the union asking them to sign up. If they said yes, the union would sign them up and they didn't have to do anything positive. That sounds quite plausible, and would explain why few of them then went on to vote.

    Not sure whether this would help or hinder Corbyn.

    Sounds right. Overall I imagine Corbyn has the most determined vote so will be the least affected.

  • I have heard the Tory strategy will be use House of Commons privilege and accuse associates of Corbyn of being anti-semites/anti British etc then that will give the media the cover to go medieval on Corbyn
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.
    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that people get paid for the time spent travelling to work??
    If I am allowed by working time directive to work 48 hours then we must presume I do and get paid for 48 hours work.
    If I spend 1hr per day travelling to work - each way - then that is 10 hours per week I am not allowed to earn money out of my 48hr working week. Someone living 5 mins way round the corner effectively still get 48 hrs pay compared to my 38 hours. Unless my company pay me 48hrs pay for 38hrs work.
    Is there something lost in interpreting this regulation?
  • Good afternoon all.

    I have to confess that I was feeling a bit delicate this morning, after yesterday's distillery visit.

    I recommend the Auchentoshan 21 year old. In fact, I recommend all of their output!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    glw said:

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.
    Corbyn's probably worried that some of his chums will get slotted by the Eye in the Sky.
  • Charles said:

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
    I don't think it's funny for anybody else and am well aware it's not original. ;-) But come on, she is Agent Cooper!

    My surname (which you may be able to guess from my user name), wasn't much fun to have growing up when I did. Regan and Carter etc.
  • JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.
    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that people get paid for the time spent travelling to work??
    No.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Charles said:

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
    I don't think it's funny for anybody else and am well aware it's not original. ;-) But come on, she is Agent Cooper!

    My surname (which you may be able to guess from my user name), wasn't much fun to have growing up when I did. Regan and Carter etc.
    Shut it!
  • Good afternoon all.

    I have to confess that I was feeling a bit delicate this morning, after yesterday's distillery visit.

    I recommend the Auchentoshan 21 year old. In fact, I recommend all of their output!

    I like Glenclinchie from Edinburgh. Just a couple of drops of water with it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,338
    glw said:

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.

    So is he saying that he would not have authorised an illegal attack - which I think would also be Cameron's position - or is he saying that, even if legal, he still would not have authorised?

  • isam said:

    Charles said:

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
    I don't think it's funny for anybody else and am well aware it's not original. ;-) But come on, she is Agent Cooper!

    My surname (which you may be able to guess from my user name), wasn't much fun to have growing up when I did. Regan and Carter etc.
    Shut it!
    And so on...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    edited September 2015
    Charles said:

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
    Could be worse, my friend has the name A Hooker.

    Everyone thinks they are the first person to tell her "I'm spending the next few hours with A Hooker"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Yes, very good. I like that a lot
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''This is it. This is how Labour could die. He will poison the brand.''

    Think of the ammo it gives even the friendliest of interviewers when quizzing labour moderates.

    ''Do you agree with your leader that....''
  • RobD..I'm not .. He obviously intends to keep running towards the cliff edge...fun to watch..Did you have a wager on him
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Just realised that the 1980 presidential election must have been the Sweeney election.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    Cyclefree said:

    glw said:

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.

    So is he saying that he would not have authorised an illegal attack - which I think would also be Cameron's position - or is he saying that, even if legal, he still would not have authorised?

    Either will do, the public aren't fretting about the rights of ISIS terrorists.
  • isam said:

    Charles said:

    TSE - you appear to have backed Cooper in the competition and yet predicted JC getting over 50%.

    Have I missed something?

    Auto correct gone mammary glands up I think
    You wanted to vote Corbyn, but after two letters, the auto-correct assumed that only a fuck-wit would want to vote that way, so....
    My phone is used to me regularly typing "Agent Cooper"
    She's dead. Wrapped in plastic.
    Yay someone got the reference. My friend really regrets becoming a field agent for a utility and having the surname Cooper.
    Does he/she have a partner called Dianne?

    No, but she does have a dog called Dale.
    Ha!

    Does she like cherry pie? I mean really?
    I take it this doesn't get old for you, but same can't be said for her?

    Any more news about Frost/Lynch wrt a new series yet? Last I hear, Lynch was back on board...
    My surname is one that leads to many jokes.

    The frustrating thing is not the jokes, but that the jokers believe that they are being witty and original.

    Believe me, you are not! I have heard every possible combination of joke on the topic.
    I don't think it's funny for anybody else and am well aware it's not original. ;-) But come on, she is Agent Cooper!

    My surname (which you may be able to guess from my user name), wasn't much fun to have growing up when I did. Regan and Carter etc.
    Shut it!
    One boss I had used to call me "WaWaWa"...
  • With Hungary closing it's border next week and Macedonian border guards very forcefully driving back the refugees and migrants (a term I believe the media should use universally) is this evidence of these countries wanting to stop the 'exodus' of Muslims.. I do not know enough about the politics of the Balkans to come to a conclusion
  • isam said:

    Yes, very good. I like that a lot
    @GeneralBoles replied "Unlimited lives". It feels like that...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    An apt story as we approach the final moments of the Labour leadership election.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34198390
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "Britain’s public toilets are a disgrace — Mary Dejevsky

    Loos in British railway stations are making huge profits – so why are we paying through the nose for broken, paper-free facilities?"


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/10/britain-public-toilets-disgrace-loos-railway-stations-profits
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    SeanT said:

    Just been having a debate on Twitter with an intelligent europhile who hadn't worked out why mass Syrian/3rd World migration into Sweden/Germany was a problem for his side in the euroref.

    He hadn't worked out that Free Movement means they can come here, in time.

    If that's the calibre of europhile thinking the INNERS have a big problem.

    It's the classic case of the man on the street being smarter than the broadsheet reader.

    The guy on the street might not know the ins and outs of how things work, but he just knows instinctively that millions of people coming to Europe, and the high desirability of the UK as a place for third world migrants to go to, means we will end up seeing huge migration from this. Even if it wasn't possible legally, it would happen illegally, via smugglers etc.

    Meanwhile the Guardianista doesn't think it will happen until the details are read to him.

    And the scale so far is only a drop on the ocean. Read the NPR article I linked - it's the buzz of the town in Baghdad, a city of seven million people. And then there's Mogadishu, Kabul, Kano, et cetera. Sweden and Germany have opened the flood gates, and every EU state will be affected.

    And the British left worries about whether or not we should use the word "swarm".
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MattW said:

    JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.

    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that contracts can stipulate how close you live?

    Or that asking the question becomes illegal in interviews?
    It's a non-issue really. The judgement is in keeping with the spirit and intention of the WTD.
    I think it is a little more than a non-issue, though it may not affect that many people. The judgement only applies to workers who have no fixed office or place of work. Possibly there aren't, relatively speaking, that many of those, however it does depend on how a fixed office is defined.

    If a worker normally travels from home to their appointments then they seem to be captured in this ruling. However, if the company requires them to go to the office first before going off to appointments then they won't be. So in the first case the person will be paid from the time of leaving home to the time of returning but in the latter the time spent travelling to/from the office would be in the person's own time. It doesn't take a great imagination how employees could be disadvantaged by the ruling and end up spending longer "at work" than is presently the case.

    Happy days for lawyers from yet another ill-thought out judgement.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited September 2015

    JEO said:

    Another absolutely brainless decision from the EU - commuting will count as work for the working time directive.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34210002

    So if you work too long, simply move further away and you can replace hours of work with time sleeping on the train .

    In some jobs, e.g. rail work, time spent travelling to work is counted as 'work time' for the purposes of working hours. There have been incidents and near-misses where people have worked over their allotted hours when you count travel.
    For safety-related jobs, it's a good idea. For everything else, no.
    Does that mean that people get paid for the time spent travelling to work??
    If I am allowed by working time directive to work 48 hours then we must presume I do and get paid for 48 hours work.
    If I spend 1hr per day travelling to work - each way - then that is 10 hours per week I am not allowed to earn money out of my 48hr working week. Someone living 5 mins way round the corner effectively still get 48 hrs pay compared to my 38 hours. Unless my company pay me 48hrs pay for 38hrs work.
    Is there something lost in interpreting this regulation?

    As I understand it (though I could be wrong) it means that if you work, say, as a British Gas engineer from home your working day begins when you leave home to drive to your first appointment, rather than when you arrive, as it was British Gas that made the appointment and arranged the allocated time-slot, and you travel there as a representative of British Gas. A commute is different as that is you just going to work.

  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    watford30 said:

    glw said:

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.
    Corbyn's probably worried that some of his chums will get slotted by the Eye in the Sky.
    Probably more concerned that he might end up on trial at the Hague. Alongside Blair and Cameron.
  • That Daily Mail article is absolutely ripe for the red arrow game. This was an all-too-brief diversion on the betfair forum years ago where contributors would compete to get the most red arrows possible on a given article.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Jonathan said:

    Just realised that the 1980 presidential election must have been the Sweeney election.

    Oh my!

    Haskins as the moderator in the debates?

    "You've gone too far Reagan, stick to the rules"

    "With respect 'Sir', sod the rule book, I get results! Large Scotch"

  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited September 2015
    Early assembly election in NI? Can we have an emergency thread on how the crazy system works/doesn't work?
    ~ :D
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    With Hungary closing it's border next week and Macedonian border guards very forcefully driving back the refugees and migrants (a term I believe the media should use universally) is this evidence of these countries wanting to stop the 'exodus' of Muslims.. I do not know enough about the politics of the Balkans to come to a conclusion

    I don't know about "stopping" the exodus of Muslims but they don't want them in their countries. Probably something to do with historic domination by Ottoman muslims.

  • SeanT said:

    I have heard the Tory strategy will be use House of Commons privilege and accuse associates of Corbyn of being anti-semites/anti British etc then that will give the media the cover to go medieval on Corbyn
    What's worse, Corbyn will KEEP giving them material. He's 66 years old. He's not going to change his views now. And what's more, he likes virtue signalling. He's a moral narcissist, so he will want to parade his "braver" views, to bask in the adoration of his fellow Trots - and he will be Leader of the Opposition, so he will have ample scope.

    And some of his material will be pretty fecking outrageous, not fit for TV. Jeremy Corbyn: the Roy "Chubby" Brown of left wing politics. Discuss.
    The morning thread will discuss this.

    The only issue is the Tories do it now, or risk Labour removing him, or wait closer to the Genera election?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2015
    SeanT said:

    Just been having a debate on Twitter with an intelligent europhile who hadn't worked out why mass Syrian/3rd World migration into Sweden/Germany was a problem for his side in the euroref.

    He hadn't worked out that Free Movement means they can come here, in time.

    If that's the calibre of europhile thinking the INNERS have a big problem.

    This seems to be one of those occasions where the more "intelligent" someone apparently is the more stupid they are when it comes to noticing the obvious.
  • perdix said:

    With Hungary closing it's border next week and Macedonian border guards very forcefully driving back the refugees and migrants (a term I believe the media should use universally) is this evidence of these countries wanting to stop the 'exodus' of Muslims.. I do not know enough about the politics of the Balkans to come to a conclusion

    I don't know about "stopping" the exodus of Muslims but they don't want them in their countries. Probably something to do with historic domination by Ottoman muslims.

    Thank you for your reply
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited September 2015
    Jonathan said:

    An apt story as we approach the final moments of the Labour leadership election.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34198390

    Very good. I note the chicken died in the end, when someone forgot to stop it choking itself to death.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The only issue is the Tories do it now, or risk Labour removing him, or wait closer to the Genera election?

    Start now, Labour won't remove him, and it runs all the way to the GE...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,338
    glw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    glw said:

    Nicely put:

    Tom Harris ‏@tnjharris

    The Tories are basically playing politics on "Easy" level now:

    He's not wrong.

    "Mr Corbyn questioned whether the RAF airstrike which killed Khan and a fellow UK jihadist Ruhul Amin was legal and confirmed he would not have authorised the attack."

    That's the 11% opinion, the Tories have the 66%.

    So is he saying that he would not have authorised an illegal attack - which I think would also be Cameron's position - or is he saying that, even if legal, he still would not have authorised?

    Either will do, the public aren't fretting about the rights of ISIS terrorists.
    But the latter is much much more damaging because he would effectively be saying that, even though there is a risk to Britain and British citizens, he will not authorise the action designed to keep them safe.

    "LOTO refuses to keep Britain safe from terrorists" is not a voter-winning headline for Labour.

  • SeanT said:

    I have heard the Tory strategy will be use House of Commons privilege and accuse associates of Corbyn of being anti-semites/anti British etc then that will give the media the cover to go medieval on Corbyn
    What's worse, Corbyn will KEEP giving them material. He's 66 years old. He's not going to change his views now. And what's more, he likes virtue signalling. He's a moral narcissist, so he will want to parade his "braver" views, to bask in the adoration of his fellow Trots - and he will be Leader of the Opposition, so he will have ample scope.

    And some of his material will be pretty fecking outrageous, not fit for TV. Jeremy Corbyn: the Roy "Chubby" Brown of left wing politics. Discuss.
    The morning thread will discuss this.

    The only issue is the Tories do it now, or risk Labour removing him, or wait closer to the Genera election?
    Maybe an emergency abolition of the additional income tax band is required to help Labour stick together?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    SeanT said:

    I have heard the Tory strategy will be use House of Commons privilege and accuse associates of Corbyn of being anti-semites/anti British etc then that will give the media the cover to go medieval on Corbyn
    What's worse, Corbyn will KEEP giving them material. He's 66 years old. He's not going to change his views now. And what's more, he likes virtue signalling. He's a moral narcissist, so he will want to parade his "braver" views, to bask in the adoration of his fellow Trots - and he will be Leader of the Opposition, so he will have ample scope.

    And some of his material will be pretty fecking outrageous, not fit for TV. Jeremy Corbyn: the Roy "Chubby" Brown of left wing politics. Discuss.
    The morning thread will discuss this.

    The only issue is the Tories do it now, or risk Labour removing him, or wait closer to the Genera election?
    General election May 2016? :D
  • JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    Just been having a debate on Twitter with an intelligent europhile who hadn't worked out why mass Syrian/3rd World migration into Sweden/Germany was a problem for his side in the euroref.

    He hadn't worked out that Free Movement means they can come here, in time.

    If that's the calibre of europhile thinking the INNERS have a big problem.

    It's the classic case of the man on the street being smarter than the broadsheet reader.

    The guy on the street might not know the ins and outs of how things work, but he just knows instinctively that millions of people coming to Europe, and the high desirability of the UK as a place for third world migrants to go to, means we will end up seeing huge migration from this. Even if it wasn't possible legally, it would happen illegally, via smugglers etc.

    Meanwhile the Guardianista doesn't think it will happen until the details are read to him.

    And the scale so far is only a drop on the ocean. Read the NPR article I linked - it's the buzz of the town in Baghdad, a city of seven million people. And then there's Mogadishu, Kabul, Kano, et cetera. Sweden and Germany have opened the flood gates, and every EU state will be affected.

    And the British left worries about whether or not we should use the word "swarm".
    So true, anecdote alert but happened nonetheless.

    In the pub, sky news comes on, "look at all those people, where are they going?". "Don't care as long as its not here".

    Outside of London go into any town centre and conduct a straw poll, the overwhelming response will be the same.

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