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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reminder: There’ve been only 2 published LAB polls the latest a month ago

Last time the final YouGov poll was carried out about 6 days after the ballot packs went out and a key question was whether people had actually voted at that stage. This time the final poll was published just as the ballot started going out.

Read the full story here

Danny565

"First."

Danny565

even after all the craziness of the past couple of months, my favourite moment of the Labour contest is still Mary Creagh's comic turn on Newsnight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1iHNSmHmoA

kle4

Corbyn losing would be a hilarious outcome after all this.

Morris_Dancer

FPT: I'll probably be out when the conclusion of the farce is performed. Oh well.

Edited extra bit: that's a fair point. We just don't know whether Labour will led by a third rate lightweight, or a 1970s socialist.

Sean_F

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

MarkHopkins

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

1. There will have to be another election.

2. Back to the nominations.

3. Oh, Corbyn isn't being nominated.

4. What a shame.

- the secret Harman Plan.

Cyclefree

Sean_F said:

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

I don't think they care. Voting Corbyn is a giant two-fingers to the British public.

kle4

Sean_F said:

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

We have been crying out for a true alternative to the Tories. We've shown that by the turnout going up three elections in a row and the Tories being largest in the last two. Also, everyone not a Tory truly wants that complete opposite to Torydom, of course, so clearly the majority want the Tories out, they just had no choice but between red and blue Tories last time.

Danny565

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

1. There will have to be another election.

2. Back to the nominations.

3. Oh, Corbyn isn't being nominated.

4. What a shame.

- the secret Harman Plan.

Yeah, what are the chances of Corbyn being nommed a second time? 0.02%?

However, the exciting new Trotskyite membership would Not Be Happy.

That would be a recipe for a huge part of the membership to break off and form a new Podemos-style party.

AndyJS

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

I don't think they care. Voting Corbyn is a giant two-fingers to the British public.

Do they realise they might come third at the next election with Corbyn as leader?

TheScreamingEagles

Just partook in an interesting Populus poll, this screen grab gives you a flavour

Would Jeremy Corbyn be a risk to Britain's security, would he bankrupt Britain, would you trust Labour to organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory etc.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COd4JwrWcAEweWq.jpg

Sean_F

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

We have been crying out for a true alternative to the Tories. We've shown that by the turnout going up three elections in a row and the Tories being largest in the last two. Also, everyone not a Tory truly wants that complete opposite to Torydom, of course, so clearly the majority want the Tories out, they just had no choice but between red and blue Tories last time.

There's lots of talk about the Tories only winning the support of 24% of the electorate.

But, that doesn't mean the other 76% are left-wing. I don't think there is any hidden reservoir of left wing voters who'll rally to a Corbyn-led Labour Party. Worse, there are almost certainly centrist Labour voters who'll switch elsewhere or stay at home.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JS, really?

That'd require a huge surge for UKIP or the Lib Dems. With Corbyn as leader, it's possible, but tribal loyalty can run very deep.

Sean_F

AndyJS said:

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

I don't think they care. Voting Corbyn is a giant two-fingers to the British public.

Do they realise they might come third at the next election with Corbyn as leader?

Their best hope is for Britain to vote Leave. That would at least mean that UKIP would probably disintegrate and not be challenging them for second place.

kle4

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

We have been crying out for a true alternative to the Tories. We've shown that by the turnout going up three elections in a row and the Tories being largest in the last two. Also, everyone not a Tory truly wants that complete opposite to Torydom, of course, so clearly the majority want the Tories out, they just had no choice but between red and blue Tories last time.

There's lots of talk about the Tories only winning the support of 24% of the electorate.

But, that doesn't mean the other 76% are left-wing. I don't think there is any hidden reservoir of left wing voters who'll rally to a Corbyn-led Labour Party. Worse, there are almost certainly centrist Labour voters who'll switch elsewhere or stay at home.

I should make clear for the record my statement may not have been 100% sincere, but of course your response is quite right.

MarkHopkins

AndyJS said:

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

I don't think they care. Voting Corbyn is a giant two-fingers to the British public.

Do they realise they might come third at the next election with Corbyn as leader?

No, they think that Corbyn's straightforwardness will cut through the other phoney politicians and he will win.

No more Tory-lites!

(According to a supporter I asked).

dr_spyn

Not a definite list for elected Mayor of Bristol, but this appeared this afternoon.

http://www.bristol247.com/channel/news-comment/daily/politics/mayoral-candidates-set-to-be-revealed

Former Bristol West Green candidate may have upset his party by endorsing current Mayor.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Hopkins, it's a valid perspective. Friendliness towards Islamic extremists and mass migration have never been more popular.

Ahem.

MTimT

FPT @ RichardTodd

Hence my very careful words 'based on what was presented'

CD13

I enjoyed the Quietus article. Interesting to see that the Trots et al haven't changed in the last forty odd years. No matter how silly they become, there's always someone who wants to believe it.

Still think that Jezza will narrowly fail. He's not Santa Claus, he's a very naughty boy.

Casino_Royale

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

I just can't believe that Labour are about to do this (well, I can believe it, but you know what I mean).

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

I don't think they care. Voting Corbyn is a giant two-fingers to the British public.

Exactly. The mistake we are making is believing that they want to do what's necessary to regain power.

The average Labour member thinks there was enough compromise with the electorate last time under Ed Miliband. Since that failed so decisively, the British electorate can go to hell: they'll vote for someone they really believe in, and see if that passion is enough for others to become as inspired as they are.

After all, they can't do any worse, can they?

RobD

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

How on earth do they think that Corbyn can appeal to the British public?

We have been crying out for a true alternative to the Tories. We've shown that by the turnout going up three elections in a row and the Tories being largest in the last two. Also, everyone not a Tory truly wants that complete opposite to Torydom, of course, so clearly the majority want the Tories out, they just had no choice but between red and blue Tories last time.

There's lots of talk about the Tories only winning the support of 24% of the electorate.

But, that doesn't mean the other 76% are left-wing. I don't think there is any hidden reservoir of left wing voters who'll rally to a Corbyn-led Labour Party. Worse, there are almost certainly centrist Labour voters who'll switch elsewhere or stay at home.

What bugs me about that argument is the people making that argument said nothing about Blair winning the support of less than 24% of the electorate in 2005, yet gaining a bumper majority.

TheScreamingEagles

Was PMQs worth watching?

TOPPING

I think @SouthamObserver as LotO and that bloke who wrote the Quietus article as shadow home secretary would be an extremely good start to Lab's renaissance.

And then @NickPalmer could support them and claim that he has maintained a consistent position throughout.

richardDodd

MTimT..always a wise precaution to be slightly sceptical....

taffys

''Friendliness towards Islamic extremists and mass migration have never been more popular.''

Not only the worst possible leader, but also the worst possible timing.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, but those were caring, Labour voters. Not baby-eating bastard Tory voters. It's just like the difference between cruel Conservative cuts, and caring Labour cuts.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Taffys, still, it's not like his views on Northern Ireland are going to come back to bite him.

Oh.

DanSmith

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

MarqueeMark

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

1. There will have to be another election.

2. Back to the nominations.

3. Oh, Corbyn isn't being nominated.

4. What a shame.

- the secret Harman Plan.

That will require a legal judgment that this first contest was somehow illegal/outwith Labour's own rules.

But it isn't. It's an omnif*cking clustershambles - but a legitimate, Labour home-grown totally by-the-book omnif*cking clustershambles. The problem is the rule-book was written by a f*ckwit. With a red crayon.

And then the Labour MPs decided to scrawl all over it. In dog vomit.

Sean_F

The thing is there is definitely a constituency out there for Jeremy Corbyn's views.

Radical Muslims; ethnic minority activists; disaffected feminists; angry teachers and university workers; left-wing students who can't stand "cisgendered" speakers; Greens; human rights lawyers; people working in professions like fashion, design, and the arts; and between them, that's quite an influential and vocal coalition. But, it's a coalition that's totally off-putting to the average voter.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, perhaps the election would've gone better if it had been carved in stone?

Tissue_Price

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Disraeli

@TheScreamingEagles
Just tried to send you a message. I hope that you have received it OK.

MyBurningEars

Danny565 said:

even after all the craziness of the past couple of months, my favourite moment of the Labour contest is still Mary Creagh's comic turn on Newsnight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1iHNSmHmoA

Still makes me cringe.

I think even Corbyn's detractors might be fair-minded enough to concede that his victory might only be the second-worst of what the possible outcomes to this contest were. Perhaps third-worst if you count Chuka's abortive candidacy.

A slow motion car crash that goes on and on and on, and on and on and on and on, and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. I don't think the end of the voting period will make it all stop.

TheScreamingEagles

Disraeli said:

@TheScreamingEagles
Just tried to send you a message. I hope that you have received it OK.

I have, and I've replied.

You're an utter superstar.

MarqueeMark

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

And the Corbynistas will forever cite YouGov as evidence that they were horribly, cynically, viciously robbed of their proper victory...

SandyRentool

There seems to be a general consensus that Watson will walk it for the Deputy, but what is that based on? Will 2nd prefs be enough to get Stella or Flinty over the line?

SandyRentool

Forgot to say - I have crossed the border - getting ever closer to the distillery!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rentool, Labour picking Watson over Creasy would be an act of madness. It's only not being discussed more because it's being eclipsed by the collective suicide that could be the leadership result.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

The thing is there is definitely a constituency out there for Jeremy Corbyn's views.

Radical Muslims; ethnic minority activists; disaffected feminists; angry teachers and university workers; left-wing students who can't stand "cisgendered" speakers; Greens; human rights lawyers; people working in professions like fashion, design, and the arts; and between them, that's quite an influential and vocal coalition. But, it's a coalition that's totally off-putting to the average voter.

Don't forget: they are given an amplified voice by the likes of the BBC, Guardian, performing arts world, third sector and social media reporting and interviewing on each other.

The mere 11% having an issue with the drone strike was instructive.

Danny565

Bad news for all Labour members: Chris Leslie and Emma Reynolds will soon be depriving us of their talents in the shadow cabinet:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/08/labour-up-to-eight-shadow-cabinet-members-may-refuse-to-serve-with-corbyn

Richard_Nabavi

MarqueeMark said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

And the Corbynistas will forever cite YouGov as evidence that they were horribly, cynically, viciously robbed of their proper victory...

To be fair, they'd probably be right.

LadyBucket

It has always been Harriet Harman's goal in politics to have a femaleLabour leader. Given that Yvette Cooper got a three-hour debate yesterday, was sat next to her at PMQs and has been in full view of TV cameras on the front bench, has Harriet finally "fixed" it before her departure to the back benches?"

Slightly ominous that they have closed their "helpline" given people still haven't receive their ballot paper.

Andy Burnham had a face like a smacked bottom. No sign of Liz.

madasafish

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarqueeMark said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

And the Corbynistas will forever cite YouGov as evidence that they were horribly, cynically, viciously robbed of their proper victory...

To be fair, they'd probably be right.

Most Corbynistas appear to hold polling in the same contempt as conventional economics (ditto pollsters and economists) . Sometimes when I read what they write, they make UKIppers seem reasonable and sane. I think some live in a different reality - multiple universes? :-)

MikeK

FPT:
Cyclefree said:
» show previous quotes
That is a very good article indeed.
----------------------------------
An excellent article from a lifetime leftie, who pulls out all the stops and see's that in Jezza Corbyn it's all wysiwyg. Trouble is, why oh why didn't Taylor Parks write this piece two or three weeks ago?

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Labour picking Watson over Creasy would be an act of madness. It's only not being discussed more because it's being eclipsed by the collective suicide that could be the leadership result.

I went for Flint ahead of Creasy - I thought CF came over best at the Newcastle hustings. Our CLP was heavily in favour of Watson at the nomination meeting for some reason with Flint second and Stella nowhere.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Social media could have a better record but it's prone to becoming an echo chamber.

I don't really do politics on Twitter [with rare exceptions], but did try following someone whose opinion I knew would almost always be different to mine. I think it's useful to get as wide a range of views as possible.

Result? He blocked me. No idea why. We didn't fall out. Indeed, I commented, politely, on a few of his tweets and occasionally he'd respond.

So, even when people try to get beyond the echo chamber, it doesn't always work.

On the drone strike: it was somewhat reassuring to read views here and the YouGov poll, because my own view was miles away from the bleating newsreaders wibbling about the death of two terrorists.

Edited extra bit: cheers for that info, Mr. Rentool.

As you'd expect (I'm neither a real nor a pretend Labour supporter) I've not been paying close attention to the deputy contest, so it's interesting to hear how you think things stack up.

I do know that voting for Watson is about as appealing a prospect as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.

malcolmg

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

Sean, what JCW do you have is it latest F56 model

MattW

MikeK said:

FPT:
Cyclefree said:
» show previous quotes
That is a very good article indeed.
----------------------------------
An excellent article from a lifetime leftie, who pulls out all the stops and see's that in Jezza Corbyn it's all wysiwyg. Trouble is, why oh why didn't Taylor Parks write this piece two or three weeks ago?

Because he'd spend 3 weeks as a designated treacherous Red Tory !

DanSmith

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Add to that a lot of established members struggling to get a vote (notable for me how quiet the £3ers are at this stage. Those that wanted to vote Corbyn, have voted Corbyn.) and I think it's looking good for Jezza.

kjohnw

LadyBucket said:

It has always been Harriet Harman's goal in politics to have a femaleLabour leader. Given that Yvette Cooper got a three-hour debate yesterday, was sat next to her at PMQs and has been in full view of TV cameras on the front bench, has Harriet finally "fixed" it before her departure to the back benches?"

Slightly ominous that they have closed their "helpline" given people still haven't receive their ballot paper.

Andy Burnham had a face like a smacked bottom. No sign of Liz.

how could she "fix it" when the electoral commission are monitoring the election?

Casino_Royale

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Social media could have a better record but it's prone to becoming an echo chamber.

I don't really do politics on Twitter [with rare exceptions], but did try following someone whose opinion I knew would almost always be different to mine. I think it's useful to get as wide a range of views as possible.

Result? He blocked me. No idea why. We didn't fall out. Indeed, I commented, politely, on a few of his tweets and occasionally he'd respond.

So, even when people try to get beyond the echo chamber, it doesn't always work.

On the drone strike: it was somewhat reassuring to read views here and the YouGov poll, because my own view was miles away from the bleating newsreaders wibbling about the death of two terrorists.

Edited extra bit: cheers for that info, Mr. Rentool.

As you'd expect (I'm neither a real nor a pretend Labour supporter) I've not been paying close attention to the deputy contest, so it's interesting to hear how you think things stack up.

I do know that voting for Watson is about as appealing a prospect as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.

You made him think too much.

Most people find their predjudices comforting and like them to be confirmed, not challenged.

Plato

https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/641624910717157376

TheScreamingEagles

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

Plato

Deselecting MPs when boundary changes come in I suspect in revenge.

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

1. There will have to be another election.

2. Back to the nominations.

3. Oh, Corbyn isn't being nominated.

4. What a shame.

- the secret Harman Plan.

Yeah, what are the chances of Corbyn being nommed a second time? 0.02%?

However, the exciting new Trotskyite membership would Not Be Happy.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, maybe, but I can't see how. It's just baffling.

Maybe my relaxed approach is due to my lack of prejudice. Well. Except for anti-elven prejudice, but those pointy-eared bastards deserve it.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/guest-post-why-elves-are-total-bastards.html

SandyRentool

DanSmith said:

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Add to that a lot of established members struggling to get a vote (notable for me how quiet the £3ers are at this stage. Those that wanted to vote Corbyn, have voted Corbyn.) and I think it's looking good for Jezza.

I am unclear as to whether members who have not received a ballot paper have received the email which allows them to vote online. I voted online the day before I received my ballot paper - which then went straight into the recycling bin.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

There are some good lol's there:

"So long as you only steal environmentally friendly vehicles I don't see how there could be a problem."

"There are plenty of equally unsavoury games out there - I'm thinking of that battlefield simulation game where you hack your way through the enemy's low-status troops before deposing their leader... Chess, I think it's called.

And I'd be very concerned if, as a self-proclaimed "leftie", you admitted to enjoying Monopoly."

Tykejohnno

Yorkshire county cricket champions ;-)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, who the hell thinks a newspaper should pick their games for them?

And who would want to contract out their critical faculties?

[I haven't actually played GTA V. I may get around to it, but I've only played the one, San Andreas, previously, and with Fallout 4 on the horizon see no need to get it at once].

NB: If the Guardian ever does a positive review of any of my books I reserve the right to agree that it is the best source for determining worthy media.

taffys

''Bad news for all Labour members: Chris Leslie and Emma Reynolds will soon be depriving us of their talents in the shadow cabinet:''

Just think about that for a minute.

MPs refusing to serve in Cabinet with their own leader? How is the labour party sustainable on this basis?

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

My word...

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

There are some good lol's there:

"So long as you only steal environmentally friendly vehicles I don't see how there could be a problem."

"There are plenty of equally unsavoury games out there - I'm thinking of that battlefield simulation game where you hack your way through the enemy's low-status troops before deposing their leader... Chess, I think it's called.

And I'd be very concerned if, as a self-proclaimed "leftie", you admitted to enjoying Monopoly."

Enjoyed the chess one. Bet they love that the Queen is the most powerful piece (fitting, given the day)!

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, were Corbyn not to win I would be the smuggest man on the Earth.

I called it and Stephen Bush said no.

Plato

Indeed. Even I was a trifle surprised it was only 11% after all that bleating

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

The thing is there is definitely a constituency out there for Jeremy Corbyn's views.

Radical Muslims; ethnic minority activists; disaffected feminists; angry teachers and university workers; left-wing students who can't stand "cisgendered" speakers; Greens; human rights lawyers; people working in professions like fashion, design, and the arts; and between them, that's quite an influential and vocal coalition. But, it's a coalition that's totally off-putting to the average voter.

Don't forget: they are given an amplified voice by the likes of the BBC, Guardian, performing arts world, third sector and social media reporting and interviewing on each other.

The mere 11% having an issue with the drone strike was instructive.

RobD

SandyRentool said:

DanSmith said:

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Add to that a lot of established members struggling to get a vote (notable for me how quiet the £3ers are at this stage. Those that wanted to vote Corbyn, have voted Corbyn.) and I think it's looking good for Jezza.

I am unclear as to whether members who have not received a ballot paper have received the email which allows them to vote online. I voted online the day before I received my ballot paper - which then went straight into the recycling bin.

Also, the £3ers can only vote online, IIRC.

SandyRentool

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

There are some good lol's there:

"So long as you only steal environmentally friendly vehicles I don't see how there could be a problem."

"There are plenty of equally unsavoury games out there - I'm thinking of that battlefield simulation game where you hack your way through the enemy's low-status troops before deposing their leader... Chess, I think it's called.

And I'd be very concerned if, as a self-proclaimed "leftie", you admitted to enjoying Monopoly."

Enjoyed the chess one. Bet they love that the Queen is the most powerful piece (fitting, given the day)!

Chess is a game in which White has an in-built advantage over Black.

Discuss...

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, I think it's because it's an instinctive response and, for most people, very clear cut.

Terrorists scheming to kill us. Do you a) do nothing b) kill them?

MikeK

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34198261
Labour leadership: Jeremy Corbyn 'was urged to quit contest'

Present Labour leadership now shitting themselves.

Cyclefree

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/why-does-the-left-care-more-about-muslims-than-jews/

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

DanSmith said:

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Add to that a lot of established members struggling to get a vote (notable for me how quiet the £3ers are at this stage. Those that wanted to vote Corbyn, have voted Corbyn.) and I think it's looking good for Jezza.

I am unclear as to whether members who have not received a ballot paper have received the email which allows them to vote online. I voted online the day before I received my ballot paper - which then went straight into the recycling bin.

Also, the £3ers can only vote online, IIRC.

I'm a 3 Quidder and received a ballot paper in the post.

RobD

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

DanSmith said:

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

The thing is for Corbyn to lose, YouGov doesn't just have to be wrong, it has to be massively wrong.

As Stephen Bush said, "100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn"

Add to that a lot of established members struggling to get a vote (notable for me how quiet the £3ers are at this stage. Those that wanted to vote Corbyn, have voted Corbyn.) and I think it's looking good for Jezza.

I am unclear as to whether members who have not received a ballot paper have received the email which allows them to vote online. I voted online the day before I received my ballot paper - which then went straight into the recycling bin.

Also, the £3ers can only vote online, IIRC.

I'm a 3 Quidder and received a ballot paper in the post.

Could have sworn they were only supposed to be able to vote online. More piss up brewery syndrome?

Morris_Dancer

Miss Cyclefree, cheers for linking that piece. I don't think I ever read about the deli attack before now.

AndyJS

"Labour shuts down leadership election helpline leaving last minute voters in limbo":

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-shuts-down-leadership-election-6412158

Danny565

John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 7m7 minutes ago
Right then. Clearly loads of ppl without a #labourleadership vote. We have the basis of a class legal action here. I'm serious.

david_herdson

Tykejohnno said:

Yorkshire county cricket champions ;-)

Indeed. Never mind Scottish independence: Yorkshire should be granted Test status on the basis of this year's performances (maybe not T20I status though).

Disraeli

SandyRentool said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

There are some good lol's there:

"So long as you only steal environmentally friendly vehicles I don't see how there could be a problem."

"There are plenty of equally unsavoury games out there - I'm thinking of that battlefield simulation game where you hack your way through the enemy's low-status troops before deposing their leader... Chess, I think it's called.

And I'd be very concerned if, as a self-proclaimed "leftie", you admitted to enjoying Monopoly."

Enjoyed the chess one. Bet they love that the Queen is the most powerful piece (fitting, given the day)!

Chess is a game in which White has an in-built advantage over Black.

Discuss...

I think that someone (Asimov?) once theorized that if you had two computers play each other, and
a) Each computer was a perfect chess player
b) Each computer knew that the other computer was a perfect chess player,
then a game between the two of them would run,
COMPUTER#1: Pawn to KP4
COMPUTER#2: Resigns.

NickPalmer

SandyRentool said:

There seems to be a general consensus that Watson will walk it for the Deputy, but what is that based on? Will 2nd prefs be enough to get Stella or Flinty over the line?

Literally everyone I know in Labour has voted for Stella. On the other hand, YouGov put Tom Watson 2-1 ahead of her. Certainly he was much better prepared organisationally.

Genuinely dunno.

Alistair

Regarding TNS poll weighting - I think if you are going to weight based on respondents politics then it a mistake to not weight by Referendum vote.

IF the poll was made up of 53% people who voted Yes last year and 47% people who voted no then there wouldn't be the slightest bit of surprise at the result of the poll.

Tissue_Price

Disraeli said:

SandyRentool said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

There are some good lol's there:

"So long as you only steal environmentally friendly vehicles I don't see how there could be a problem."

"There are plenty of equally unsavoury games out there - I'm thinking of that battlefield simulation game where you hack your way through the enemy's low-status troops before deposing their leader... Chess, I think it's called.

And I'd be very concerned if, as a self-proclaimed "leftie", you admitted to enjoying Monopoly."

Enjoyed the chess one. Bet they love that the Queen is the most powerful piece (fitting, given the day)!

Chess is a game in which White has an in-built advantage over Black.

Discuss...

I think that someone (Asimov?) once theorized that if you had two computers play each other, and
a) Each computer was a perfect chess player
b) Each computer knew that the other computer was a perfect chess player,
then a game between the two of them would run,
COMPUTER#1: Pawn to KP4
COMPUTER#2: Resigns.

Or it might be #2 offers a draw and #1 accepts. We still don't know!

RobD

Alistair said:

Regarding TNS poll weighting - I think if you are going to weight based on respondents politics then it a mistake to not weight by Referendum vote.

IF the poll was made up of 53% people who voted Yes last year and 47% people who voted no then there wouldn't be the slightest bit of surprise at the result of the poll.

Haven't looked at the tables, but it would be surprising if they didn't ask how they voted in the last referendum.

Plato

Golly

Danny565 said:

John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 7m7 minutes ago
Right then. Clearly loads of ppl without a #labourleadership vote. We have the basis of a class legal action here. I'm serious.

david_herdson

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

Must be a big chance of a legal challenge. I still ascribe to Dan Hannan's theory that Labour are deliberately cocking up the election so it might be nullified.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/09/labour-closes-ballot-helpline-leadership-election-deadline?CMP=share_btn_tw

Just an omnif*cking clustershambles.

1. There will have to be another election.

2. Back to the nominations.

3. Oh, Corbyn isn't being nominated.

4. What a shame.

- the secret Harman Plan.

Although wouldn't that mean that the London mayoral nomination and Deputy leadership elections would also have to be cancelled? And absent a change to the party's election rules - another conference needed? - that'd be cutting it pretty fine in London.

Cyclefree

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, cheers for linking that piece. I don't think I ever read about the deli attack before now.

Crikey: it was covered extensively at the time. The fact that Jewish targets are often picked in addition to other targets is a significant issue but one which is overlooked, probably because it raises uncomfortable questions about the motivations of those carrying out the attacks.

The French forces had to assault both the kosher supermarket and the place where the Hebdo killers were hiding out in Northern France at the same time.

One of the women killed in the Charlie Hebdo offices was Jewish. The assassins spared the other women there but killed this particular lady because she was Jewish. In the deli attack, one of the shop assistants, a young man from Mali, a Muslim as it happened - and more importantly, a decent human being - shepherded down tto the cold store room 8 of the shoppers and thereby kept them safe. He managed to escape and was able to help the French police with the layout so that they were able later to kill the terrorist and free the remaining shoppers.

For his remarkable act of bravery, his application for French citizenship was fast-tracked and he was awarded it a few weeks later in a ceremony by President Hollande.

The young man said when asked to explain his actions: "Mon coeur a parle. Et j'ai reagi."

"My heart spoke and I acted."

That is the definition of true character. An example to us all.

Plato

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/641625405473075200

Tissue_Price

Laura K: "I understand a few weeks ago, one of Mr Corbyn's own senior supporters urged him to consider pulling out of the race. [...] The message was, this has gone far enough, time to stop."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34197785

They must have been reading PB.

SandyRentool

NickPalmer said:

SandyRentool said:

There seems to be a general consensus that Watson will walk it for the Deputy, but what is that based on? Will 2nd prefs be enough to get Stella or Flinty over the line?

Literally everyone I know in Labour has voted for Stella. On the other hand, YouGov put Tom Watson 2-1 ahead of her. Certainly he was much better prepared organisationally.

Genuinely dunno.

Nick, her appeal doesn't seem to extend to the North East. Surely it can't just be because she represents a Lundun seat?

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

Laura K: "I understand a few weeks ago, one of Mr Corbyn's own senior supporters urged him to consider pulling out of the race. [...] The message was, this has gone far enough, time to stop."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34197785

They must have been reading PB.

To think you were criticised by J not very wise man for writing that thread.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Cyclefree, I can be quite absent-minded [a month or two after I self-published my first book, I forgot the name of the second most important character]. Perhaps I just forgot.

Ah, was that the event where people hid in the freezer and idiotic media broadcast their location?

I think it was indeed an example of me forgetting something. Ahem.

On Labour's woe: I'm beginning to think the deliberate shambles theory holds water. But does the margin of potential Corbyn victory alter the prospect of a potential re-run?

richardDodd

If Corbyn wins then there WILL be a new LABOUR PARTY formed...must be right ... my wife said so..

flightpath01

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, were Corbyn not to win I would be the smuggest man on the Earth.

I called it and Stephen Bush said no.

I'm going to be gutted if Burnham doesn't win.

SouthamObserver

Danny565 said:

John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 7m7 minutes ago
Right then. Clearly loads of ppl without a #labourleadership vote. We have the basis of a class legal action here. I'm serious.

The least worst option from here is to start again.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peak Guardian

Is it OK for a Guardian-reading leftie to play Grand Theft Auto?

http://bit.ly/1IYno3y

The second response is brilliant

OldKingCole

richardDodd said:

If Corbyn wins then there WILL be a new LABOUR PARTY formed...must be right my wife said so..

You mean the Democratic Socialist Party? Not to be confused with the Social Democratic Party.

SandyRentool

Oh, no sign of Queenie or 60009 at Waverley.

Now heading west...

richardDodd

OKC... .dunno, I will ask her..

flightpath01

Sean_F said:

The thing is there is definitely a constituency out there for Jeremy Corbyn's views.

Radical Muslims; ethnic minority activists; disaffected feminists; angry teachers and university workers; left-wing students who can't stand "cisgendered" speakers; Greens; human rights lawyers; people working in professions like fashion, design, and the arts; and between them, that's quite an influential and vocal coalition. But, it's a coalition that's totally off-putting to the average voter.

:-) - Thats real Jimmy's fairly secret army stuff...

DavidL

AndyJS said:

"Labour shuts down leadership election helpline leaving last minute voters in limbo":

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-shuts-down-leadership-election-6412158

In fairness finding a different genuinely stupid and incompetent step to take every day of an election this long cannot be easy. But I still think they are starting to run out of ideas in the closing straight.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, I can be quite absent-minded [a month or two after I self-published my first book, I forgot the name of the second most important character]. Perhaps I just forgot.

Ah, was that the event where people hid in the freezer and idiotic media broadcast their location?

I think it was indeed an example of me forgetting something. Ahem.

On Labour's woe: I'm beginning to think the deliberate shambles theory holds water. But does the margin of potential Corbyn victory alter the prospect of a potential re-run?

Mr D, on self publishing wasn't it a self publihser who wrote a 40,000 word novel with the hero as "David". At the last minute the author decided to change his name to "Kevin" and auto-corrected.. She forgot that some action takes place in Rome and consequently there's a reference to Michaelangelo's statue of Kevin!

Plato

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/641635639889403904