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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back.

Read the full story here

Icarus

No, no rerun the election.

DanSmith

Surely the only person hurt by people not getting their ballots is Corbyn.

SimonStClare

Another three days! – Do we have grounds to sue Labour for Cruel and Unusual Punishment.?

Philip_Thompson

Icarus said:

No, no rerun the election.

Lets give Unite more time "find" new Corbyn supporters.

JosiasJessop

How can Labour hope to win the country if they cannot even run a leadership contest without it falling into chaos?

Alanbrooke

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

Philip_Thompson

DanSmith said:

Surely the only person hurt by people not getting their ballots is Corbyn.

Three quidders are getting their ballots by email. If it is postal votes that aren't going out (to longstanding members at that) then that could help Corbyn.

Just how many ways can Labour show us they can't run a piss up in a brewery let alone run the country?

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

JEO

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.

Actually they do.

"Additionally, asylum seekers are also not normally allowed to work for payment while their claims are being processed ..."

"Employment rates also steadily increased over time, with 20% of the refugees in employment 8 months after the asylum decision, 28 per cent in employment after 15 months, and 39 per cent after 21 months."

We're talking about people who would be resident in Germany for 96 months and can only claim citizenship if steadily employed. Not people arriving starting off banned from working.

You can't extrapolate a growth rate over a matter of 21 months to eight years! The people at the end of your dataset only have an employment rate of 39% at the end of your timescale, they still are nowhere near the employment rate of British nationals (around 70-80%). In fact, given the fact that most Somali-born migrants have been here far longer than 21 months, and the average employment rate is still in the 30-40% range, it is clear your trend does not continue.

Philip_Thompson

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.

Actually they do.

"Additionally, asylum seekers are also not normally allowed to work for payment while their claims are being processed ..."

"Employment rates also steadily increased over time, with 20% of the refugees in employment 8 months after the asylum decision, 28 per cent in employment after 15 months, and 39 per cent after 21 months."

We're talking about people who would be resident in Germany for 96 months and can only claim citizenship if steadily employed. Not people arriving starting off banned from working.

You can't extrapolate a growth rate over a matter of 21 months to eight years! The people at the end of your dataset only have an employment rate of 39% at the end of your timescale, they still are nowhere near the employment rate of British nationals (around 70-80%). In fact, given the fact that most Somali-born migrants have been here far longer than 21 months, and the average employment rate is still in the 30-40% range, it is clear your trend does not continue.

Except you are still ignoring the fact that 100% of nationalised Germans are steadily employed.

Richard_Nabavi

What a ridiculous article by the Mail. I mean, how can they possibly say 'Labour's leadership contest descended into chaos today', when it's been chaos for months?

Tissue_Price

A delay would be big "cut-through" news. Surely they'll want to avoid it whatever the circumstances since the number of extra late ballots is very unlikely to change the result. *waves at Chris Huhne, the exception that proves this rule*.

I think your 1/20 money is still safe, TSE. But I wouldn't want to be on at that price.

DanSmith

Philip_Thompson said:

DanSmith said:

Surely the only person hurt by people not getting their ballots is Corbyn.

Three quidders are getting their ballots by email. If it is postal votes that aren't going out (to longstanding members at that) then that could help Corbyn.

Maybe, although I sense he's going to win amongst members as well as the three quidders.

JEO

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.

Actually they do.

"Additionally, asylum seekers are also not normally allowed to work for payment while their claims are being processed ..."

"Employment rates also steadily increased over time, with 20% of the refugees in employment 8 months after the asylum decision, 28 per cent in employment after 15 months, and 39 per cent after 21 months."

We're talking about people who would be resident in Germany for 96 months and can only claim citizenship if steadily employed. Not people arriving starting off banned from working.

You can't extrapolate a growth rate over a matter of 21 months to eight years! The people at the end of your dataset only have an employment rate of 39% at the end of your timescale, they still are nowhere near the employment rate of British nationals (around 70-80%). In fact, given the fact that most Somali-born migrants have been here far longer than 21 months, and the average employment rate is still in the 30-40% range, it is clear your trend does not continue.

Except you are still ignoring the fact that 100% of nationalised Germans are steadily employed.

Not once they give up their jobs to move to the UK. And not for their wives that move with them.

Morris_Dancer

The Labour Party appears incapable of running the Labour Party.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

Alanbrooke

Morris_Dancer said:

The Labour Party appears incapable of running the Labour Party.

unless it's running it in to the ground.

We shouldn't discourage them.

Luckyguy1983

Richard_Nabavi said:

What a ridiculous article by the Mail. I mean, how can they possibly say 'Labour's leadership contest descended into chaos today', when it's been chaos for months?

Surely it's ascended into chaos if anything - previously it was farce.

Are the 'forces of darkness' trying to take this away from Jezbollah do we think?

Philip_Thompson

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.

Actually they do.

"Additionally, asylum seekers are also not normally allowed to work for payment while their claims are being processed ..."

"Employment rates also steadily increased over time, with 20% of the refugees in employment 8 months after the asylum decision, 28 per cent in employment after 15 months, and 39 per cent after 21 months."

We're talking about people who would be resident in Germany for 96 months and can only claim citizenship if steadily employed. Not people arriving starting off banned from working.

You can't extrapolate a growth rate over a matter of 21 months to eight years! The people at the end of your dataset only have an employment rate of 39% at the end of your timescale, they still are nowhere near the employment rate of British nationals (around 70-80%). In fact, given the fact that most Somali-born migrants have been here far longer than 21 months, and the average employment rate is still in the 30-40% range, it is clear your trend does not continue.

Except you are still ignoring the fact that 100% of nationalised Germans are steadily employed.

Not once they give up their jobs to move to the UK. And not for their wives that move with them.

Right yes then they'll give up their steady employment and revert to being identical to people arriving who're banned from working when they arrive and legally enforced to long term unemployment.

My wife doesn't work as she looks after our daughter. I didn't realise that was against your philosophy.

SouthamObserver

JosiasJessop said:

How can Labour hope to win the country if they cannot even run a leadership contest without it falling into chaos?

Labour stopped thinking about the country the day after the general election. It is going to take a lot more time and the leader after Corbyn before thoughts turn back to anything so compromising as seeking power.

isam

The sad demise of the comma continues

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

richardDodd

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Brooke, Queen's Under Pressure was fitting for the last F1 race

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Alanbrooke

richardDodd said:

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

popcorn is just about the worst bar snack ever. Never drink it with beer, you'll get up the next morning and feel you've swallowed the polysterene wrapping your TV comes in.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

john_zims

@Alanbrooke

'they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.'


Did you forget that Harman was one of the very few ministers that actually got sacked by Blair ?

TCPoliticalBetting

Morris_Dancer said:

The Labour Party appears incapable of running the Labour Party.

brilliant

Slackbladder

The Neverending Story: Part IV The labour leadership farce.

richardDodd

AB But it is traditional when you are watching a long drawn out saga like an American Football game or something equally as trivial as the Labour Party leader elections..both of them make the eating of the corn the most exciting part of the event..

SouthamObserver

Alanbrooke said:

richardDodd said:

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

popcorn is just about the worst bar snack ever. Never drink it with beer, you'll get up the next morning and feel you've swallowed the polysterene wrapping your TV comes in.

Who on earth eats popcorn with beer. Scratchings, of course, and crisps, yes; and when I was a young man who played football on a Sunday morning on Hampstead heath the pub we used to go to afterwards dished out free roast potatoes - which was a nice touch (it's a Greek restaurant now). But popcorn. Never.

glw

Morris_Dancer said:

The Labour Party appears incapable of running the Labour Party.

They should take a lesson from Brown and open the administration of the Labour Party to competitive tender, then an organisation like Serco could run them on a juicy thirty-year PFI contract that ultimately bankrupts the party.

Sean_F

The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.

I think it's safe to say that there will be nothing on offer to keep the UK in the EU.

Plato

glw said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The Labour Party appears incapable of running the Labour Party.

They should take a lesson from Brown and open the administration of the Labour Party to competitive tender, then an organisation like Serco could run them on a juicy thirty-year PFI contract that ultimately bankrupts the party.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

richardDodd said:

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

popcorn is just about the worst bar snack ever. Never drink it with beer, you'll get up the next morning and feel you've swallowed the polysterene wrapping your TV comes in.

Who on earth eats popcorn with beer. Scratchings, of course, and crisps, yes; and when I was a young man who played football on a Sunday morning on Hampstead heath the pub we used to go to afterwards dished out free roast potatoes - which was a nice touch (it's a Greek restaurant now). But popcorn. Never.

There is a really nice little bar/restaurant in Southwark called Baltic where they serve you savoury popcorn with your drinks

Artist

It could just be a tactic by either Cooper or Burnham to try and portray the battle as close and that they are the candidate who could beat him.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

I've always had latent republican tendencies.

But rereading on the English Civil War and the Divine Rights of Kings is utter bollocks.

We need a elected Head of State.

Alanbrooke

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

richardDodd said:

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

popcorn is just about the worst bar snack ever. Never drink it with beer, you'll get up the next morning and feel you've swallowed the polysterene wrapping your TV comes in.

Who on earth eats popcorn with beer. Scratchings, of course, and crisps, yes; and when I was a young man who played football on a Sunday morning on Hampstead heath the pub we used to go to afterwards dished out free roast potatoes - which was a nice touch (it's a Greek restaurant now). But popcorn. Never.

It was all they had at the Prague Hilton and served with Czech stout I could literally feel where my oesophagus started next morning..

david_herdson

Why would "one contender" leak to The Mail (of all places!) their intent to call for an extension to the vote rather than, say, calling for an extension to the vote? And who is that contender?

I'm yet to be convinced that this isn't just The Mail stirring it. If it does happen - and there's good reason for it - then they don't need the evidence, and if it doesn't, then they can always claim that the anonymous contender must have thought twice.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, you Corbynite sleeper.

I should have realised your dress sense and failure to understand history were clear signs of degenerate socialism.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

I've always had latent republican tendencies.

But rereading on the English Civil War and the Divine Rights of Kings is utter bollocks.

We need a elected Head of State.

Like Blair or Prescott ? Give me strength.

john_zims

@Sean_F

'The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.'

Who could have guessed that the most effective leader for 'out' would be Merkel

richardDodd

AB Always good to know where your body parts are..and then you can check on wether they are functioning

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

We need a elected Head of State.

As long as it's you TSE?

Alanbrooke

richardDodd said:

AB Always good to know where your body parts are..and then you can check on wether they are functioning

Oh they function, but not necessarily the way the doctor says they should.

Alanbrooke

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

We need a elected Head of State.

As long as it's you TSE?

TSE as head of state would be a nightmare.

Elections would be held in roller discos.

richardDodd

AB Rule two..never believe your doctor..they lie...

Alanbrooke

richardDodd said:

AB Rule two..never believe your doctor..they lie...

Yes, but so do I, it sort of balances things up.

JEO

Philip_Thompson said:

Right yes then they'll give up their steady employment and revert to being identical to people arriving who're banned from working when they arrive and legally enforced to long term unemployment.

My wife doesn't work as she looks after our daughter. I didn't realise that was against your philosophy.

You are putting my words in my mouth:

1) I have never claimed they will revert to being identical to people arriving who're banned from working. I have claimed they will be similar to the overall Somali-born population (of whom only a tiny percentage are within 21 months of having an asylum decision). You still have not provided any evidence that these two groups will be different.

2) Obviously, the employment rate of partners that come over as secondary to the one with the EU passport will affect the total employment rate that we can use to compare to the UK national average.

To be honest, I think this discussion has gone beyond its shelf life, as you are now distracting from your lack of evidence for your claims with aspersions on my motivations or misrepresenting what I have argued. This shall be my last post on the matter.

richardDodd

AB Good idea,,

Plato

This is an interesting development - Team Corbyn are the only ones who haven't been bitching about the process - with Jerry being particularly ce la vie about it...because they know it's been running their way. Yet surely, they've the most votes to lose, if the endpoint isn't extended?

I'm totally perplexed how Labour members - inc a senior one haven't got theirs yet - there's no need to vet them surely? It's the £3ers that are the most likely to be wags, Greenies and other Trots. Kendall knows she's no chance, so that leaves Cooper/Burnham.

Plato

That sounds a most disturbing experience.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

richardDodd said:

I don't think I can eat much more popcorn..but I will try..

popcorn is just about the worst bar snack ever. Never drink it with beer, you'll get up the next morning and feel you've swallowed the polysterene wrapping your TV comes in.

Who on earth eats popcorn with beer. Scratchings, of course, and crisps, yes; and when I was a young man who played football on a Sunday morning on Hampstead heath the pub we used to go to afterwards dished out free roast potatoes - which was a nice touch (it's a Greek restaurant now). But popcorn. Never.

It was all they had at the Prague Hilton and served with Czech stout I could literally feel where my oesophagus started next morning..

richardDodd

My money is on Burnham as the whinger.. He has always arrogantly appeared to regard himself as the rightful heir to the LOTO throne..

JohnLoony

(Two threads ago)

Luckyguy1983 said:

JosiasJessop said:

I don't accept any of those points. Taking just life expectancy: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/mortality-in-england-and-wales/average-life-span/rpt-average-life-span.html
and
http://www.maxroser.com/gains-for-all-life-expectancy-by-age/

Although IANAE, I also disagree with the rest of your conclusions about health as well. Allergies may have increased, but is that an actual increase or just an increase in reporting? And on the other hand, we are now protected against many diseases that were prevalent just a few decades ago.

===

On another point: "we're living through nothing they wouldn't have recognised or had a name for."

Really? My great-granddad lived from something like 1870 to 1965. In that time we had the advent of radio, electric goods, commonplace indoor plumbing, the telephone, the internal combustion engine and cars, planes, space travel, and masses more. It was a period of incredibly compressed change, both technologically and socially (and it is difficult to separate the two). He managed to evolve and mostly cope with these changes. I'm not sure his grandfather would have recognised the world of 1965.

On a more general point: what area / period of history do you specialise in?

#

Your report confirms exactly what I said:
'Therefore, between 1841 and 1900 the modal age at death was much higher than the other two averages; modal age at death in 1841 was 71 for males and 77 for females and in 1900 it was 68 years and 73 years respectively.'

According to the report it's now 85 and 89. With over a century advances in medical science, medical care, and lifestyle improvement, we've added just over 10 years of what for many will be a confused and illness-plagued later life. We're ageing and getting more infirm at more or less the same rate as we ever were.

No it's not an increase in reporting, it's an increase.

Here's cancer: http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/incidence/all-cancers-combined#heading-One

Asthma (source says it reached highest level in 90's): http://www.asthma.org.uk/asthma-facts-and-statistics

Allergies: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2111268/

The first ever heart attack in America was in 1912 you know.

I'm actually a marketing manager but my undergraduate degree was in Modern History, Economic History and Politics.

I may be misunderstanding what you're talking about, but common sense says that the mode age of death was 0 until relatively recently.

Icarus

If you read the article - it says that friends of Ben Bradshaw, a former cabinet minister, haven't got their ballot paper. Perhaps they had forgotten to pay their subs.

The headline about senior ones is not supported by the article.

Dair

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Richard_Nabavi

david_herdson said:

I'm yet to be convinced that this isn't just The Mail stirring it. If it does happen - and there's good reason for it - then they don't need the evidence, and if it doesn't, then they can always claim that the anonymous contender must have thought twice.

I expect that, like many such stories, it's based on a real conversation between the reporter and someone in Labour, which has been somewhat over-enthusiastically interpreted by the reporter to get a story. I'm sure that the article is right that there is anger at the shambles of getting ballot papers out (it's not as though the party hasn't had plenty of time!), and it's very likely that some comment along the lines of 'maybe we should get the deadline extended or something' was made by someone in one of the leadership teams. It won't come to anything.

rottenborough

Afternoon all,

How many times has Labour's leadership election "descended into chaos"? I doubt it has been out of chaos all summer.

TheScreamingEagles

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

We need a elected Head of State.

As long as it's you TSE?

I'd make a terrible Head of State. You know I'd turn the role into Dictator for life.

John_M

*points and laughs at the Labour party, knocks it down and steals its lunch money*

Can they become even more feeble? Sadly, the answer is probably 'yes'.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

I've always had latent republican tendencies.

But rereading on the English Civil War and the Divine Rights of Kings is utter bollocks.

We need a elected Head of State.

Like Blair or Prescott ? Give me strength.

Previously elected politicians would be barred from running for Head of State.

I was thinking more along the lines of someone like Brian Blessed.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.

I think it's safe to say that there will be nothing on offer to keep the UK in the EU.

Is that news? Well, i suspected it but even I was surprised to hear how blunt those exchanges had been.

I do wonder how Cameron will play this if he has zilch all to play with next year. Perhaps a very luke warm endorsement of the proposals by a sitting PM, with a tacit acceptance that cabinet colleagues can campaign how they like whilst he takes a back seat, might be enough for some floating voters to question it.

I don't really expect us to leave even if we get a 'leave'.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

richardDodd

CasinonRoyale Stand by for a shock.. if we get a leave then we will definitely leave..

rottenborough

Philip_Thompson said:

DanSmith said:

Surely the only person hurt by people not getting their ballots is Corbyn.

Three quidders are getting their ballots by email. If it is postal votes that aren't going out (to longstanding members at that) then that could help Corbyn.

Just how many ways can Labour show us they can't run a piss up in a brewery let alone run the country?

Emails might still be a problem, with spam filters.

felix

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Right yes then they'll give up their steady employment and revert to being identical to people arriving who're banned from working when they arrive and legally enforced to long term unemployment.

My wife doesn't work as she looks after our daughter. I didn't realise that was against your philosophy.

You are putting my words in my mouth:

1) I have never claimed they will revert to being identical to people arriving who're banned from working. I have claimed they will be similar to the overall Somali-born population (of whom only a tiny percentage are within 21 months of having an asylum decision). You still have not provided any evidence that these two groups will be different.

2) Obviously, the employment rate of partners that come over as secondary to the one with the EU passport will affect the total employment rate that we can use to compare to the UK national average.

To be honest, I think this discussion has gone beyond its shelf life, as you are now distracting from your lack of evidence for your claims with aspersions on my motivations or misrepresenting what I have argued. This shall be my last post on the matter.

It's like 'toothgate' yesterday all over again

rottenborough

Kendal's final pitch:

http://labourlist.org/2015/09/four-shadow-cabinet-members-make-final-plea-to-members-to-vote-kendall/

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

Luckyguy1983

JohnLoony said:

(Two threads ago)

Luckyguy1983 said:

JosiasJessop said:

I don't accept any of those points. Taking just life expectancy: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/mortality-in-england-and-wales/average-life-span/rpt-average-life-span.html
and
http://www.maxroser.com/gains-for-all-life-expectancy-by-age/

Although IANAE, I also disagree with the rest of your conclusions about health as well. Allergies may have increased, but is that an actual increase or just an increase in reporting? And on the other hand, we are now protected against many diseases that were prevalent just a few decades ago.

===

On another point: "we're living through nothing they wouldn't have recognised or had a name for."

Really? My great-granddad lived from something like 1870 to 1965. In that time we had the advent of radio, electric goods, commonplace indoor plumbing, the telephone, the internal combustion engine and cars, planes, space travel, and masses more. It was a period of incredibly compressed change, both technologically and socially (and it is difficult to separate the two). He managed to evolve and mostly cope with these changes. I'm not sure his grandfather would have recognised the world of 1965.

On a more general point: what area / period of history do you specialise in?

#

Your report confirms exactly what I said:
'Therefore, between 1841 and 1900 the modal age at death was much higher than the other two averages; modal age at death in 1841 was 71 for males and 77 for females and in 1900 it was 68 years and 73 years respectively.'

According to the report it's now 85 and 89. With over a century advances in medical science, medical care, and lifestyle improvement, we've added just over 10 years of what for many will be a confused and illness-plagued later life. We're ageing and getting more infirm at more or less the same rate as we ever were.

No it's not an increase in reporting, it's an increase.

Here's cancer: http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/incidence/all-cancers-combined#heading-One

Asthma (source says it reached highest level in 90's): http://www.asthma.org.uk/asthma-facts-and-statistics

Allergies: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2111268/

The first ever heart attack in America was in 1912 you know.

I'm actually a marketing manager but my undergraduate degree was in Modern History, Economic History and Politics.

I may be misunderstanding what you're talking about, but common sense says that the mode age of death was 0 until relatively recently.

I'm not sure whether the age 'zero' was taken into account; it would be interesting to see if it was.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't have you down as a republican.

Particularly given your view on Caesar.

I've always had latent republican tendencies.

But rereading on the English Civil War and the Divine Rights of Kings is utter bollocks.

We need a elected Head of State.

Like Blair or Prescott ? Give me strength.

Previously elected politicians would be barred from running for Head of State.

I was thinking more along the lines of someone like Brian Blessed.

Perhaps that well known Jacobite aristocrat JackW?

At least the pies would be good and the Scots delighted to have one of their own enthroned...

JohnLoony

I will be surprised, whatever happens.

If Cooper of Burnham wins, I will be surprised because it will be so different from what the surveys and opinion polls are saying.

But if Corbyn wins, I will still be surprised because the whole idea of someone like him, with his background and lack of relevant experience, becoming Leader of the Opposition, is so overtly preposterous and unthinkable that I just can't imagine it really happening until it actually does.

Charles

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.

I think it's safe to say that there will be nothing on offer to keep the UK in the EU.

Is that news? Well, i suspected it but even I was surprised to hear how blunt those exchanges had been.

I do wonder how Cameron will play this if he has zilch all to play with next year. Perhaps a very luke warm endorsement of the proposals by a sitting PM, with a tacit acceptance that cabinet colleagues can campaign how they like whilst he takes a back seat, might be enough for some floating voters to question it.

I don't really expect us to leave even if we get a 'leave'.

Although, if you are in a position where you know the other side won't compromise an inch it makes sense to take a very moderate position.

Then when it doesn't work you can regretfully say how reasonable you were, but [Merkel] was just intransigent so you have to recommend out.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

Meritocracy was a concept invented by a Labour peer.

Icarus

JohnLoony said:

I will be surprised, whatever happens.

If Cooper of Burnham wins, I will be surprised because it will be so different from what the surveys and opinion polls are saying.

But if Corbyn wins, I will still be surprised because the whole idea of someone like him, with his background and lack of relevant experience, becoming Leader of the Opposition, is so overtly preposterous and unthinkable that I just can't imagine it really happening until it actually does.

You shouldn't be surprised. The election of an unlikely candidate only requires the other candidate(s) to be even more unlikely! Which explains why Corbyn is going to win.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

I'm a fiscally dry as the Sahara Tory, soaking wet socially liberal Tory.

I'm closer to you on Defence than most (whilst disagreeing about a replacement for Trident, as I want that money spent on conventional forces which have been shamefully scaled back)

Lady Thatcher was at her best when she radical and took on the old orthodoxies.

She failed to privatise the Royal Mail because she didn't want to privatise the Queen's head.

Big mistake.

You're not English if you don't sock it to the French on a regular basis in my book.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

A pro-EU republican wet. I only had you down as two of those three.

DaemonBarber

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

I suppose that all depends on what you mean by gradual change. For too many Cons, this means not in my lifetime.

Besides, if it's a choice between self-identifying as LibDem or Con...
I know which one I'd choose.

rottenborough

Palin is back on form:

"I'd rather have a president who is tough and puts America first than can win a game of Trivial Pursuit."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/palin-eyes-energy-secretary-job-in-a-trump-administration-213371#ixzz3l3SuDtzS

SouthamObserver

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Luckyguy1983

DaemonBarber said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

I suppose that all depends on what you mean by gradual change. For too many Cons, this means not in my lifetime...

For me it doesn't involve 'change' gradual or otherwise, as an automatically assumed virtue, it involves change where it's for the better and continuity where that's for the better. I find the idea that conservatives are just sulky people who 'get there in the end' to be profoundly insulting. I don't want to go to the same place just in a slower gear; I want to be offered an alternative.

taffys

''Well, i suspected it but even I was surprised to hear how blunt those exchanges had been''.

At some juncture next year, there may be a poll that shows a substantial BOO lead.

At that point, we may find out what our continental cousins really think of us. Cameron may be screaming at them to Offer Something to make us stay in.

SouthamObserver

Over in Catalonia the most recent opinion poll puts the independence coalition on 44% of the vote, something that would deliver a very slender overall majority. They have said that if they get that majority they will unilaterally declare independence. But with just 44% of the vote is that really going to happen?

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

I'm a fiscally dry as the Sahara Tory, soaking wet socially liberal Tory.

I'm closer to you on Defence than most (whilst disagreeing about a replacement for Trident, as I want that money spent on conventional forces which have been shamefully scaled back)

Lady Thatcher was at her best when she radical and took on the old orthodoxies.

She failed to privatise the Royal Mail because she didn't want to privatise the Queen's head.

Big mistake.

You're not English if you don't sock it to the French on a regular basis in my book.

Fair enough. I'll take that.

Dair

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Not sure what a deliberate misinterpretation of political opponents whinging about Salmond does to help Carmichael. It's certainly not in the public perception and it is not featured in the coverage at all.

Icarus

From Labour list: "However, a spokesperson for the Labour party said “There are no plans to delay the announcement of the result.”

From Oxford dictionary :Definition of plan in English:
noun

"A detailed proposal for doing or achieving something"

Does the Labour party have any plans?

Luckyguy1983

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Not sure what a deliberate misinterpretation of political opponents whinging about Salmond does to help Carmichael. It's certainly not in the public perception and it is not featured in the coverage at all.

Nor have I noticed anyone (except you) hanging on every detail of the Carmichael leak enquiry. It's hardly water cooler stuff.

DaemonBarber

Luckyguy1983 said:

DaemonBarber said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sheesh

and these people still try to brazen their way through on their "competence"

they couldn't organise a queue with one person in it.

The original headline was going to be "Labour show they can't organise a pregnancy on a council estate" or "Labour show they couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory"

Stand by for weeks of "it's not fair" from the losers.

Labour seems to be populated by people with a mental age of six.

I blame Mike. He's on holiday, when he asked me to edit PB in his absence he said nothing ever happens, you can put your feet up for three weeks.

I'm waiting for the big HerMaj is longest reigning monarch thread. If you can't get song titles in to that thread you should retire and grow turnips for malc.

Well as someone with Republican tendencies I'm not best qualified to write on that topic.

But I do like Her Majesty.

Oh dear. Your positions - for a self-proclaimed Conservative - disappoint by the day!

Being a Republican is based on sound Conservative principles.

That merit and hard work shall ensure you can get any job you so desire.

That is only part of it. Conservatism also involves respecting and conserving what is good and precious about our heritage, environment, traditions and culture, changing only where necessary and preferring gradual change to radical reform.

Your positions on immigrarion, the EU and the monarchy mark you out more as an orange-book Lib Dem to be honest.

Then again.. you do give it to the French on occassion, which is something.

I suppose that all depends on what you mean by gradual change. For too many Cons, this means not in my lifetime...

For me it doesn't involve 'change' gradual or otherwise, as an automatically assumed virtue, it involves change where it's for the better and continuity where that's for the better. I find the idea that conservatives are just sulky people who 'get there in the end' to be profoundly insulting. I don't want to go to the same place just in a slower gear; I want to be offered an alternative.

Oh I agree... Lords reform was the biggest issue of that ilk in recent times.
No better alternative was offered up before sweeping "reforms" were set in motion. Are we any better off now than we were prior to Labour's vandalism?

Casino_Royale

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.

I think it's safe to say that there will be nothing on offer to keep the UK in the EU.

Is that news? Well, i suspected it but even I was surprised to hear how blunt those exchanges had been.

I do wonder how Cameron will play this if he has zilch all to play with next year. Perhaps a very luke warm endorsement of the proposals by a sitting PM, with a tacit acceptance that cabinet colleagues can campaign how they like whilst he takes a back seat, might be enough for some floating voters to question it.

I don't really expect us to leave even if we get a 'leave'.

Although, if you are in a position where you know the other side won't compromise an inch it makes sense to take a very moderate position.

Then when it doesn't work you can regretfully say how reasonable you were, but [Merkel] was just intransigent so you have to recommend out.

From the British perspective, Cameron has been very pragmatic and reasonable. From the European, he's acted like a total arsehole.

To be honest, that fact alone is telling enough to Leave.

Dair

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Not sure what a deliberate misinterpretation of political opponents whinging about Salmond does to help Carmichael. It's certainly not in the public perception and it is not featured in the coverage at all.

Nor have I noticed anyone (except you) hanging on every detail of the Carmichael leak enquiry. It's hardly water cooler stuff.

Perhaps you're too remote, it is getting live TV coverage in Scotland and it trending very respectfully on Twitter. I'm sure it will predominantly be people interested in politics but it is guaranteed to be the top story on the news today and tomorrow.

TGOHF

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Farcical case, farcical trial.

Should be thrown out by tea time.

Luckyguy1983

Dair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Not sure what a deliberate misinterpretation of political opponents whinging about Salmond does to help Carmichael. It's certainly not in the public perception and it is not featured in the coverage at all.

Nor have I noticed anyone (except you) hanging on every detail of the Carmichael leak enquiry. It's hardly water cooler stuff.

Perhaps you're too remote, it is getting live TV coverage in Scotland and it trending very respectfully on Twitter. I'm sure it will predominantly be people interested in politics but it is guaranteed to be the top story on the news today and tomorrow.

I am in Scotland. Perhaps you're not remote enough?

SouthamObserver

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

The Carmichael trial is becoming truly bizarre.

The Defense is now trying to argue that overturning Carmichael's election would be terrible because it would compel candidates for election to tell the truth!

Great stuff.

Absolutely - politicians should still be free to lie about getting legal advice on EU membership.

Not sure what a deliberate misinterpretation of political opponents whinging about Salmond does to help Carmichael. It's certainly not in the public perception and it is not featured in the coverage at all.

A lie is a lie, whether it receives coverage or not. And if the law is blind it does not matter who tells the lie once a precedent has been set.

TGOHF

Telegraph poll on whether you would let a refugee in your house nip and tuck..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11848755/I-wouldnt-have-a-Syrian-refugee-in-my-house.html

rcs1000

@JEO: there is a fundamental difference between the Netherlands and Germany. To become a Dutch citizen, residency is the dominant requirement. (See https://ind.nl/EN/individuals/residence-wizard/dutch-citizenship/naturalisation: there is no need to have a job for example.)

In Germany, it is much more onerous. In particular, you need to have demonstrated that you will not be living off the state. (Compare and contrast with the UK, where - once you have your five years of residency - then so long as you can pass the exam, you're basically home free.)

It is highly likely that the Somalians you reference did not have jobs in the Netherlands. They certainly did not need them to become Dutch citizens.

There are therefore three important differences: Firstly, Syrians in Germany will have been there much longer than Somalis in the Netherlands; Secondly, the Syrians in Germany will need to have been almost continually employed for the last eight years, and therefore are much more likely to have put down roots; Thirdly, there was a very large Somalian population in the UK, and much more generous benefits there than in the Netherlands.

I would be interested to see how many of the 30,000 or so Turks that took German citizenship last year headed off to the UK. My guess would be bugger all.

Why should the Syrians in Germany be different to the Turks?

Disraeli

Plato said:

This is an interesting development - Team Corbyn are the only ones who haven't been bitching about the process - with Jerry being particularly ce la vie about it...because they know it's been running their way. Yet surely, they've the most votes to lose, if the endpoint isn't extended?

Good point.

BTW, isn't it "C'est la vie"?

(I feel unclean at trying to help people with the French language. I think I'll go and take a shower )

AndyJS

"Hungary Tells Germany To Stop Taking Refugees

The country's PM criticises Berlin for encouraging "millions" more to descend on Europe - and claims many have no case for asylum."

http://news.sky.com/story/1548073/hungary-tells-germany-to-stop-taking-refugees

Cyclefree

Sean_F said:

The exchanges between Cameron and Merkel as described by Anthony Seldon are really interesting.

I think it's safe to say that there will be nothing on offer to keep the UK in the EU.

I rather wish that Cameron had replied to Merkel's reputed comments about Britain being a "problem child" that, if there was one country in Europe which had been, pretty consistently, a "problem" it was hers. And that there were British war cemeteries all over Europe testifying to that fact.

No country has done more to help Europe out of the messes it has got itself into than Britain.