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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister
In an interview with the Guardian today Sir Vince Cable predicts that George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister. Sir Vince like Mark Antony comes to bury Osborne, not praise him by saying Osborne is “extremely shrewd politically, very cynical” and “The economy turned out all right, but I don’t think that was because of [Osborne].”
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He did not want the current referendum so as long as he is leader he would never entertain another referendum. Try getting that past the members when a majority of them are Eurosceptic.
Osborne v May? not certain for either.
Don't think it will be Osborne v Johnson.
Him losing his seat was highlight of the GE night, for me. Not a man suited to government. Not a man suited to leadership.
"Did the photo of the Syrian boy make you more in favour of accepting more refugees?
In favour 36%, Opposed 17%, No difference 47%.
Would you support military action in Syria?
Support 41%, Oppose 38%, Don't know 21%"
Tories when in Govt. tend to realise that the best way for MPs to keep their seats is if leadership elections are concluded swiftly and without too much hoo-har. Has there even been a Tory party leadership election when in Govt. in an age of mass membership voting?
I for one would be happy for it to go back to the old style of election by MPs.
But in the end the economy is the big question, as you say - his chances may well be laughable again at some point in any case. In which case he should revert to what I presume was the initial plan, of being the eminence grise of the next leader as you say, which I think he is trying to move away from since the GE, when he's thought perhaps he could actually take the job himself.
What time will the declaration be? Will Laura Kuenssberg emulate her predecessor and talk over the declaration with her own inaccurate prediction?
The Syrian American Medical Society upon who's evidence one of your sources relies, is a pro-revolutionary group. The clue's in the title.
'Zaher Sahloul, a Chicago-based 47-year-old physician specializing in pulmonary disease, is another anti-Assad activist and the volunteer director of the Syrian American Medical Society.'
Assad may be many things, stupid is not one of them. The rebels have motive, means, and opportunity. Here are all the facts laid out clearly and baldly, as opposed to newspaper emotive spin: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/04/03/about-those-chlorine-gas-attacks-in-syria/
'In order to prevail, the Syrian opposition needs foreign intervention. In order to prevail, the Syrian government needs to prevent foreign intervention.'
The realisation of how much of an electoral asset DC was in '05, when he was (apparently) Howard's favoured candidate of the centre, shows his self-awareness is head and shoulders above almost every other leading politician of the 21st century.
That still stands - and he'll be keener for the Tories to carry on winning now they've got a majority. I imagine he'll only stand if there is no-one more obviously electable than him willing to do it.
Funding for the Syrian crisis (USD, million, selected Western countries)
US: 1,120
UK: 475
EU Comm: 301
Germ: 225
Neth: 70
Den: 23
Belg: 17
Fra: 12
https://fts.unocha.org/pageloader.aspx?page=search-reporting_display&CQ=cq020315114425TxF7oSVtRX&orderby=USD_commitdisbu&showDetails=
The Syrian American Medical Society upon who's evidence one of your sources relies, is a pro-revolutionary group. The clue's in the title.
'Zaher Sahloul, a Chicago-based 47-year-old physician specializing in pulmonary disease, is another anti-Assad activist and the volunteer director of the Syrian American Medical Society.'
Assad may be many things, stupid is not one of them. The rebels have motive, means, and opportunity. Here are all the facts laid out clearly and baldly, as opposed to newspaper emotive spin: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/04/03/about-those-chlorine-gas-attacks-in-syria/
'In order to prevail, the Syrian opposition needs foreign intervention. In order to prevail, the Syrian government needs to prevent foreign intervention.'
I'm of the 'cock-up rather than conspiracy' school of history. William of Ockham is our guiding light.
You do seem to be rather fonder of any conspiracy, even when reams of assumptions have to be made, than most....
It might be later as this time they have to announce the Deputy Leader.
PS - I hope you enjoyed the subtle Caesar reference in the thread header.
Osborne = Caesar.
You do seem to be rather fonder of any conspiracy, even when reams of assumptions have to be made, than most....
Not sure where conspiracies come into this. Blame for the attacks has to lie somewhere. Where you apportion them is up to you, I merely suggest what I regard to be the least implausible answer.
Who was it who uttered that line? Brutus?
He's an Osborneite, very close to Osborne, he's also been showing some Eurosceptic leg, telling the CBI to behave in the referendum. Were Osborne not to run, I expect Osborne to be fully behind Javid's bid.
Cooper 6.6
Burnham 11.5
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886
Still, modern literature isn't my thing.
"Germany dominance over as demographic crunch worsens
Germany's workforce will shrink by 6m over the next 15 years, declining even faster than Japan's
Germany’s birth rate has collapsed to the lowest level in the world and its workforce will start plunging at a faster rate than Japan's by the early 2020s, seriously threatening the long-term viability of Europe’s leading economy.
A study by the World Economy Institute in Hamburg (HWWI) found that the average number of births per 1,000 population dropped to 8.2 over the five years from 2008 to 2013, further compounding a demographic crisis already in the pipeline. Even Japan did slightly better at 8.4."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11644660/Germany-dominance-over-as-demographic-crunch-worsens.html
Thatcher, Hague, IDS and Cameron became Tory leader in opposition, when the Tories are more likely to pick an outsider
Betting PostF1: pre-race piece up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/italy-pre-race.html
Includes 2 tips. Or 5, depending on your perspective.
Laid Hamilton to lead lap 1, and backed Vettel/Raikkonen each way to win. Got a feeling Rosberg's old engine (less power than Hamilton's and with six races of mileage on it) could prove a problem for him.
Boris is a clown and can I please be the first to start an ABB campaign.
And what happened to GO's desired FS position?
Oh and let's imagine I am reasonably typical in my economic right, social centre/soft Toryism, on balance the EU is a good thing (Bonjour @RobD), then I am rapidly edging from in to out.
This last week of migrant-based incompetence and lack of cohesion makes me think that the UK's current position is like being a bit pregnant. Of course it always was but the EU, as we have seen it this week, seems even worse than that.
Mr Cable sounds like a curmudgeonly old Scarborough Lobster resenting the invasion of the North Sea by King Crabs.
Cameron's handling this well so far. If they are to come, his way is far better than Merkel's deranged policy.
There is speculation that there maybe a YouGov poll on the Labour leadership in tonight's Sunday Times.
Regards the 'migrant crisis' does anyone feel as I do, that this whole situation is becoming a 'tinderbox'? There is lots of compassion around at the moment but the harsh reality may be very different in a few months, or even years.
Thank goodness, Labour are not in power. If they want unlimited migrants to come, then I'm sure they would only be too delighted if they all went to 'their' constituencies. I'd love to be a fly on wall at some of their surgeries, when people are complaining about being pushed even further down the housing list, or their children can't get into the local schools etc.
Yes, we do need to take some but the situation also needs some hard-headed pragmatism, which I think David Cameron is showing at the moment.
It's only the BBC trying to even things up!
"and since the Magic Circle's influence has ended the Tories in government have picked Home, who was Foreign Secretary"
(David Herdson's comment 'ignore all pre-1964 leadership (s)elections', confused me slightly as Home was Tory leader in 1964 and Heath was not elected leader until 1965)
Edited to correct to last year not this.
US: 443 (297)
UK: 108 (138)
Germ: 50 (54)
Fra: Too small to be separately listed (ditto)
https://fts.unocha.org/reports/daily/ocha_R5_A1044___1509050303.pdf
https://fts.unocha.org/reports/daily/ocha_R5_A1007___1509050303.pdf
The Govt need to get a lot more explicit with the numbers - this 'the UK isn't doing anything while heroic Germany leaps to the rescue' really needs to be dealt with......we've spent more than twice as much for each of the last three years.....and as for the French government..
While philosophically that is correct, the UK Government (and the EU) do have budgets and taxes/funding they raise that way and this expenditure is coming from that.
Similarly, South Dorset went Labour in 01, came back to us in 2010.
I've helped out in both in the past 3 elections - I know what I'm talking about. Both became thumpingly safe seats in 2015.
The demographic is older and wealthier. Formerly run down owner-occupied streets are really smartening up. Councils are getting bluer too.
As I said, Dorset has been getting bluer for years.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-hungary-may-deploy-military-to-southern-border-says-pm-viktor-orban-10488073.html
clickbait TSE ! :-)
There were multiple sources: I see you ignore those. And the accusation about the source is a bit funny from someone who, just last week, posted as a source a media organisation owned by a personal friend of Bashar Assad, ffs.
It is not flimsy: far from. The only thing that is flimsy are your repeated attempts to propagate Russian propaganda. As for your comments on chlorine: I believe you are utterly wrong about why Assad would want to use them. However there is at least one expert on PB on such matters, and it would be interesting to know his view on why they would be used.
Your linked article again relies on the fact that the OPCW did not ascribe blame for the attacks. That is because, as mentioned before, ascribing blame was not in their mandate. If Assad was not responsible, and it was a rebel group, you'd have expected him to be rather keen for them to ascribe blame.
And the last quote on your post was hilarious: given the number of Iranian and now Russian troops in Syria helping Assad's forces, it's clear that in order to prevail, the Syrian government needs foreign intervention. It's just that you probably don't see them as 'foreign'.
'Labour wins an election'
'Then one or two of those Dorset seats may turn red or yellow'
You're letting history get in the way of the future. There is no guarantee that:
a) The tories will lose their majority
b) Labour will ever win a majority again
c) Either of those eventualities lead to any of the Dorset seats being anything but Tory.
The demographic of the county is getting wealthier. It is getting older. There are more and more holiday homes in cheaper properties. There are more expensive properties. There is less public sector dependency.
It has been widely missed, but the increasing wealth and confidence of the South of England is evident to all who visit. Hence even strongholds like several of the Cornish seats and Soton Itchen went blue in 2015.
This is economic progress; not a prevalence of pendulum swinging marginal seats. You're mistaking the South for the Midlands.
But the ultimate source of taxes is not the UK government, it is taxpayers. Spending by the EU Commission is no more spending by Westminster than spending from Holyrood is. It may be sourced from British taxes, but it is not the British government it is the EU Commission that is spending the money.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Smith should not have appealed.
I have my doubts he will be the next Tory leader let alone PM, but it isn't as ridiculous as it once was, and his becoming favourite in some ways - Labourlist readers in a 'poll' also picked him as the biggest threat apparently, though maybe that was just them messing with Tories who are currently messing with them, by claiming to see him as the larger threat - though perhaps overstating it, is probably due more to things outside his control, which will be the making or breaking of his chances.
It will be a eurosceptic because most members are.
So who does that leave?
Dorset has always been a relatively affluent place filled with relatively wealthy retirees, often from the home counties and London, indeed I used to visit an elderly relatively who lived in a hotel near the seafront and was a staunch Tory.
Southampton Itchen and all the Cornish seats were won by Thatcher of course, that did not stop them going Labour or LD a decade later!
I never said Dorset was a bellweather area like the Midlands, and it clearly leans Tory, but nor is it an ultra Tory stronghold like Surrey either, where, apart from Guildford in 2001, every seat was won by the Tories throughout the Blair years
Professional cricketers are not umpires and should not be presuming to do the umpires job for them.
(There is a very big ethical difference here where there is an element of doubt, versus where a player appeals when he knows the batsman is Not Out - eg a 'catcher' who knows for certain the ball bounced).
a) the acceptance of a need to limit public spending
b) the successful reduction in the size of the client state
What I am saying is that Dorset has become Surrey. It might not have been until very recently, and you can use wikipedia to your heart's content to find historical counter arguments, but it is now.
In my last year living in Australia (1992- Jan 2000) I went to an ODI in Melbourne. Australia had just retained the Ashes and had just had its republic referendum only a couple of months earlier. The Aussie fans were chanting "We own the Ashes" to which we were retorting with chants of "We own your country."
The aussies made a big deal about the spirit of cricket after Philip Hughes tragic death... this was their chance to show they meant it
Never underestimate the capability of the Conservative Party and its members to evolve as the world changes. (*) Labour also learnt this under Blair, but it now looks as if it heading towards senility.
(*) I recently likened them to a 200+-year old Zombie, living off the dead corpses of different political philosophies.
I make no point about the OPCW not having a mandate to ascribe blame - I simply take that as it is. You're the one darkly hinting 'they all know he did it'. This sequence of events:
'According to its report, in May 2014, an OPCW team tried to investigate at the site of alleged chlorine gas attacks. The Syrian government gave the OPCW team passage to the rebel controlled area but the convoy was attacked by a rebel faction. None of the team members was injured but that stopped their on-site investigation. Instead, the OPCW worked with the well-funded opposition-supporting Violations Documentation Center to arrange interviews with numerous people from three villages. The interviews were conducted outside Syria, probably in Turkey. They gathered photographs, videos and other evidence and expressed “high confidence that chlorine had been used as a weapon in Syria” in three villages. They did not ascribe responsibility.'
-hardly indicates Assad involvement.
As for your last paragraph, facetiousness is not a substitute for an argument. You are asking us to believe, on the scantiest of evidence, that having just escaped US bombing, by the skin of his teeth, as a result of a Kerry slip up and a clever Russian wheeze, Assad, having agreed to give up his entire chemical arsenal, would start dropping chlorine on people half a mile from where weapons inspectors were staying, thus crossing Obama's 'red line'. To what end? For what purpose? As opposed to the insurgents, who have been using it for years: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/21/AR2007022100166.html (2007 Iraq) -and were desperate to secure Western intervention. Right, ok then.