Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early asnext
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early asnext April
On the day Cameron accepted the electoral commission suggestion to change the wording of the EU referendum question, and UKIP turned the Eurosceptic movement into a modern day equivalent of the People’s Front for Judea versus the Judean People’s Front, this is probably the most interesting news of the day.
0
Comments
Since the EC has asked the EU question be changed, surely SINDYREF2 should ask:
"Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave?"
Of course the Fixed Term Act is a little impedimentlette, but no doubt one which could be circumvented. As a general political observation, kicking Labour whilst they have decided to lose all semblance of sanity must be near-irresistible.
http://twitter.com/thetimes/status/638826484749107200/photo/1
Slightly puzzling statement. The latest three opinion polls had figures of Yes 55% and 54% (excluding don't knows), not exactly numbers to be confident about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Referendum_Question_2015
To which you keep responding with the above irrelevance.
As for your latter statement, you appear to acknowledge that this is a deterrent only as far as the US wishes. Therefore it is not an independent nuclear deterrent. Looked at objectively, the US is the most warlike nation on the earth, taking military action against more countries in recent times than any other nation. Nor have they ever been a dependable ally to Britain. Any independent nuclear deterrent worthy of the name MUST defend us against every potential nuclear threat, including the US.
A massive migrant crisis, swarms of people crossing half the world, and all you can think is its a confected argument about where to put them?
Or at least partially vetted them - I know vetting is continuing.
In particular we know the electorate fell by 50,000 due to duplications and people not on Electoral Register - I very much doubt anyone got a ballot paper before at least that stage of the vetting process had been completed.
So the fact that only 120,000 ballots went out last week isn't actually surprising at all.
Result - Carly Fiorina will be in the prime time debate instead of the happy hour debate on 9/16
Almost 30 million killed in (largely failed) wars initiated by America since 1945...
Objectively, you can understand why Iran calls them the Great Satan.
When you are guaranteed power for another 3 to 4 years you don't risk it just to tag on an extra 1-2 years at the end.
Not worth it - especially when you also factor in you wouldn't get the Boundary changes and changing the law wouldn't be that easy - the Lords would probably block it for starters.
It's more likely that they're trying for a distraction from the Merkel row.
Get in touch boys if your still lurking ;-)
Sky reporting Cameron has agreed to reinstate purdah. Credit to him for seeing he was in the wrong.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3923726/
Almost tempted to spend the £79 on an annual sub. I was put off these subs when I tried Lovefilm and found that the sub didn't include anything I wanted to see, mostly just numerous B-movies.
Thought not...
No, it was a class 221 unit like this run by the Cross Country franchise, though I did get to Bristol from London this morning on the Mark 3 HST train
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_221
I did Bristol Temple Mills - Bristol Parkway (which is on the Swansea line) - Cheltenham (avoiding Gloucester).
I did pass through Gloucester when I did the Swindon to Cheltenham service back in June).
If every ballistic missile from the V2 onwards - through the hackneyed plots of James Bond - through the space program itself, has a self-destruct sequence... you don't think the Yanks have control over that sequence on the very 'independent' nukes they manufacture and flog to their 'special' ally?
I know Americans are dim, but...
[...] to exploit the weakness of a Corbyn-led Labour Party.
A phrase I expect we'll see repeatedly in the coming months, should the Islington MP win.
On the ballot papers - does everyone get a set? I voted weeks ago by email link and have never had a physical ballot paper.
It is an established historical fact that:
(a) Bob Wareing's death was reported on 29th August 2014, after being announced in a tweet by Stephen Twigg MP, who is his successor as MP for Liverpool West Derby;
(b) Those reports were corrected on 30th August 2014, when Stephen Twigg said that he had been misinformed by a usually reliable source.
Completely separately from that, I noticed two days ago that the Wikipedia article on Bob Wareing said that he died on 1st May 2015. I was doubtful because the revision stating that he had died was only done by someone on Wikipedia on 25th August 2015, and without giving a source.
Therefore I thought that it would be prudent to double-check whether he had died, by asking Stephen Twigg for confirmation. I also mentioned the question here and elsewhere, in case anybody had more information. Mr Twigg subsequently replied to my tweet by confirming that Bob Wareing had died in May 2015.
I am flabbergasted to discover that several people here were so stupid that they gave links to the earlier report from 30th August 2014 (mentioned above), as if it somehow had any relevance whatsoever to this year's report. I notice that there are also several editions to Wikipedia along the same lines.
I am very surprised that Mr Wareing's death in May went unreported in the media until August, but I am amazed that anybody here on PB - which is inhabited by mostly intelligent people - could possibly be so thick that they somehow thought that Mr Twigg's correction of 30th August 2014 could have anything to do with the report from 2015.
And no-one will believe the EU negotiators will have agrred to anything by then.
What would have happened to someone like that (who obviously has a severe allergy) without medical treatment? Would the body metabolise the venom and eventually get rid of it so the person recovers? Or do people sometimes die from a single bee sting?
But it goes back to that first point: in what possible circumstance could Britain have a reason for acting in a manner so utterly contrary to the interests of the US?
The only possible answer, as Richard suggests, would be to get the referendum done and dusted so they could go for an early election before Labour elect someone competent instead. But the damage a Corbyn victory is going to do Labour is not short term, indeed it is likely to get worse over time as the self inflicted wounds fester.
And Cameron would only put the referendum forward if he was very confident of the result. The polls are too close. This story does not add up.
If one or both aircraft carriers were destroyed, such that the UK couldn't feasibly retake the islands, a nuclear strike would have been threatened by the UK against the Argentine military base of Córdoba.
Mitterrand believed that Thatcher might conceivably push the button and his psychiatrist claimed that it was this that led him to give Thatcher the codes to disarm the Exocets recently sold by the French to Argentina.
Anyone who ever thought the result of renegotiation might be anything else is a fool.
Secondly, the UK leaving the EU would significantly reduce the size and strength of the Institution. We are still one of the top 5 or 6 economies in the world. An institution that was willing to turn itself inside out to keep Greece on board would not wish to lose its second largest member (in population). The negotiating strength with the US in the trans-Atlantic trade agreements would, for example, be significantly different.
Thirdly, Germany in particular needs the UK to counterbalance the Latin/French block and allow them to keep their economy successful by being related to the real world.
Fourth, although trade would continue the risk of at least some disruption with a major trading partner is not one that the majority of the EU could afford to take. Some are teetering on the edge of recession again already.
Fifthly, there is the risk of contagion. If we are concerned about being dominated by a EZ bloc how would the other none EZ countries feel without us there? They would either have to sign up or leave too.
I could go on but what is the point? Most EU leaders have been clear that they want Britain to stay and recognise that we have some genuine issues of concern. Irritation with our reluctance to do our share on asylum seekers, for example, is a small weight in the balance.
Given the contempt of many EU leaders for significant reforms it seems improbable he could get a good deal by 2016, but then maybe that was always unlikely. So present what scraps they'll all is next year and it is do soon into his second term that he won't be forced to stand down as many gave expected, and will actually then last til 2020.
Treatment is antihistamine, steroid and adrenaline (epinipherine), to limit reaction and normalise blood pressure. Fatal reactions tend to be in older people less able to cope with the haemodynamic shocks, and not unusual for the trigger to never be identified, or for it not to have been a problem in the past.
For the longest time I didn't think we could risk leaving, but if we keep grumbling and them complaining about that the who,e thing suffers. They want us to put up or shut up.
In or out we will continue to have a relationship with the EU. Best make it a civil one!
They will however certainly offer minor things and let Cameron dress them up - that's SOP for EU negotiations. For instance, they could pretend to be reluctant to promise not to mess with the City and allow Cameron to wear them down. And there's clearly a mood to agree something on limiting benefits for migrants.
The rumour looks wrong, and probably is just political maneuvering, because Cameron will want those partial wins, both to help win a vote and to burnish his personal reputation. It's just not credible that his line is "We don't think the negotiations will get anything at all, so we're not going to try".
As long as this type of person stays on message boards like this he is relatively harmless. When one becomes, say, Leader of the Opposition - that's a far more serious matter.
Any other PB'ers going, who'd like to meet up?
A year early, no purdah, no substantial renegotiation (to date). I'm sure the Conservative sceptics will obediently accept an In vote.
Ahem.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, my spies tell me you are financially contributing to Lancastrian cricket.
Your trial for treason, blasphemy and sacrilege against God's Own County is pencilled-in for November.
it's a bit close, really isn't it? unless you're going to take out French polynesia or something?
they'd probably give us calais for free, anyway, if we ask nicely
I'm not a BOOer, I think we'll probably do worse, but being unhappy inside will be a drawback on us and the EU as we fester silently, slowing their desires, so best we go now, and if we suffer for that and chAnge our minds one day, they can extract a heavy heavy price for our troublemaking.
Winner Corbyn: 83.9%
Cooper: 11.3%
Burnham: 4.4%
Kendall: 0.4%
(Corbyn’s lead has been fairly consistent throughout, - the bugger had better win now
The government is set to announce "significant" changes to its planned rules on an in-out EU referendum.
The changes will focus on the so-called purdah rules, which stop ministers using public money to campaign for one side, from 28 days before such a vote.
===========
He,he. Nothing like bending the rules for Cammo's pseudo referendum.
As for the EU being sick of us 'moaning', well thats just a terrible mentality. We're the third largest member. The other two major members get their concerns addressed from the get-go via the common position set by a Franco-German summits, so it is a complete double standard to ignore ours. And it is foolish to ignore our views: they would have been saved the Eurocrisis had they listened to our criticism to the Euro currency. If they show they just expect us to get along with everything over our own national interest than EU solidarity is a meaningless concept that only applies for more EU integration and we should leave.