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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early asnext

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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MikeK said:

    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34124142

    The government is set to announce "significant" changes to its planned rules on an in-out EU referendum.
    The changes will focus on the so-called purdah rules, which stop ministers using public money to campaign for one side, from 28 days before such a vote.
    ===========

    He,he. Nothing like bending the rules for Cammo's pseudo referendum.

    How, exactly, is it a "pseudo referendum"?
    Alright call it an unfair referendum, then.
    You are contrasting Cameron with your own leader... a man who cannot be trusted after his "fake" resignation .
  • Mr. JEO, I entirely agree.

    That's why the EU will disintegrate sooner rather than later. It's not honest. It's not competent. It's main skill is conniving slyness, the aptitude shared by meddlesome eunuchs in the latter day Han dynasty.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,529

    Incidentally, Scandinoir fans will be glad to hear The Bridge Series 3 starts this month. If I understand this correctly, the subtitled version will be available from Amazon Prime too:

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3923726/

    Almost tempted to spend the £79 on an annual sub. I was put off these subs when I tried Lovefilm and found that the sub didn't include anything I wanted to see, mostly just numerous B-movies.

    Amazon Prime is excellent , but the spending does not stop there. You do end up buying some of the premium stuff as well.
  • F1: Hulkenberg signs new 2 year deal with Force India:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34115410
  • Mr. Palmer, cheers for the heads up on The Bridge. It's the only Scandinavian offering I watch [though I wish they wouldn't double-shot the episodes].
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited September 2015
    I cannot understand why we do not treat the EU like other members do. Just agree with the bits we like and ignore or even go against the rest.

    Our major problems are the civil service and the judiciary who all cow-tow to Brussels because it gives them more employment, money and power of the British people. Just get rid of all this unnecessary bureaucracy and just do what France, Italy, Spain and the rest does - use the good bits and ignore the rest.

    The EU is toothless against anyone who ignores their rules and when it comes to anything important like migration it is even more useless and impotent.

    Brussels just wants our large subscription and our fishing waters.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've felt for a very long time that we were only allowed into the EU for our money. Like the ugly bird invited to join to mean girls club, so she could pay for the drinks.

    They've never *wanted us* to be part of the gang.
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    snip.

    There's been an assumption that Cameron will be offered something that he can put to the British electorate. I think there's a good chance that he'll be offered nothing. Other EU governments are sick of us not sharing their dream of integration, and may well be pleased to see us go.
    I know the EU pretty well and I've been saying from the start that they're not in the mood to offer major changes: they are bored with what they see as Cameron striking attitudes at their expense. They see us like an irritating aunt in residence who keeps moaning about the décor - they wouldn't throw her out or want her to be miserable but they aren't going to redecorate the house in magenta for her either.

    They will however certainly offer minor things and let Cameron dress them up - that's SOP for EU negotiations. For instance, they could pretend to be reluctant to promise not to mess with the City and allow Cameron to wear them down. And there's clearly a mood to agree something on limiting benefits for migrants.

    The rumour looks wrong, and probably is just political maneuvering, because Cameron will want those partial wins, both to help win a vote and to burnish his personal reputation. It's just not credible that his line is "We don't think the negotiations will get anything at all, so we're not going to try".
    I am so sick of EU leaders saying or leaking that they are bored with the UK complaining, it's the default response whenever something comes up and is the main way their occasional words of acknowledging our concerns is shown to utter hash - at the end of the day nothing major will be on the table, as you say, and they make clear they don't actually share our concerns by making clear they are bored with our whining, so they clearly have no intention to do more than dress something small up. We have to decide whether to accept they will not change and hold is in contempt for bringing it up, or go and suffer what may well be bad consequences.

    I'm not a BOOer, I think we'll probably do worse, but being unhappy inside will be a drawback on us and the EU as we fester silently, slowing their desires, so best we go now, and if we suffer for that and chAnge our minds one day, they can extract a heavy heavy price for our troublemaking.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited September 2015
    Deleted. Financier neat me to it/
    Plato said:

    I've felt for a very long time that we were only allowed into the EU for our money. Like the ugly bird invited to join to mean girls club, so she could pay for the drinks.

    They've never *wanted us* to be part of the gang.

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    snip.

    There's been an assumption that Cameron will be offered something that he can put to the British electorate. I think there's a good chance that he'll be offered nothing. Other EU governments are sick of us not sharing their dream of integration, and may well be pleased to see us go.
    I know the EU pretty well and I've been saying from the start that they're not in the mood to offer major changes: they are bored with what they see as Cameron striking attitudes at their expense. They see us like an irritating aunt in residence who keeps moaning about the décor - they wouldn't throw her out or want her to be miserable but they aren't going to redecorate the house in magenta for her either.

    They will however certainly offer minor things and let Cameron dress them up - that's SOP for EU negotiations. For instance, they could pretend to be reluctant to promise not to mess with the City and allow Cameron to wear them down. And there's clearly a mood to agree something on limiting benefits for migrants.

    The rumour looks wrong, and probably is just political maneuvering, because Cameron will want those partial wins, both to help win a vote and to burnish his personal reputation. It's just not credible that his line is "We don't think the negotiations will get anything at all, so we're not going to try".
    I am so sick of EU leaders saying or leaking that they are bored with the UK complaining, it's the default response whenever something comes up and is the main way their occasional words of acknowledging our concerns is shown to utter hash - at the end of the day nothing major will be on the table, as you say, and they make clear they don't actually share our concerns by making clear they are bored with our whining, so they clearly have no intention to do more than dress something small up. We have to decide whether to accept they will not change and hold is in contempt for bringing it up, or go and suffer what may well be bad consequences.

    I'm not a BOOer, I think we'll probably do worse, but being unhappy inside will be a drawback on us and the EU as we fester silently, slowing their desires, so best we go now, and if we suffer for that and chAnge our minds one day, they can extract a heavy heavy price for our troublemaking.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clever move by Cameron. By holding the referendum in April he would reduce the turnout for the Welsh and Scottish elections in May which can only help the Tories and harm Labour who usually depend on a higher turnout to get their base out.

    LOL, I bet you believe in fairies. Nothing could help the Tories in Scotland , they are rank rotten and will be lucky to get a few consolation list seats.
    Chortle all you want, Scottish Tories will soon become the official opposition... all as planned.... ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,529

    PB leadership comp after 250 votes cast.

    Winner Corbyn: 83.9%

    Cooper: 11.3%
    Burnham: 4.4%
    Kendall: 0.4%

    (Corbyn’s lead has been fairly consistent throughout, - the bugger had better win now :lol: )

    After listening to the donkeys he is up against last night it seems impossible he could lose. He sat disdainfully almost chuckling as the dullards lied and waffled, he knows he is home and dry for sure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,529
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clever move by Cameron. By holding the referendum in April he would reduce the turnout for the Welsh and Scottish elections in May which can only help the Tories and harm Labour who usually depend on a higher turnout to get their base out.

    LOL, I bet you believe in fairies. Nothing could help the Tories in Scotland , they are rank rotten and will be lucky to get a few consolation list seats.
    Chortle all you want, Scottish Tories will soon become the official opposition... all as planned.... ;)
    Two list seats and a three legged donkey , I cannot wait. They are utterly duplicitous and useless.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Financier,

    "I cannot understand why we do not treat the EU like other members do. Just agree with the bits we like and ignore or even go against the rest."

    That's why it will never significantly change. Any why the 'Mediterranean' countries are happy to sign up to anything. It's no skin off their nose if the Northerners follow orders, but they can pick and choose.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    JEO said:



    As for the EU being sick of us 'moaning', well thats just a terrible mentality. We're the third largest member. The other two major members get their concerns addressed from the get-go via the common position set by a Franco-German summits, so it is a complete double standard to ignore ours. And it is foolish to ignore our views: they would have been saved the Eurocrisis had they listened to our criticism to the Euro currency. If they show they just expect us to get along with everything over our own national interest than EU solidarity is a meaningless concept that only applies for more EU integration and we should leave.

    But why are there Franco-German summits that set the tone? Because we don't get involved early enough. There have been periods where Britain and Germany in particular worked actively together and France felt left out, but Cameron's approach has been to sit on the sidelines, muttering audibly about how boring it is to sit through long meetings, and then thump the table with objections when it's already been half-decided. The EU doesn't work like that and it's daft to be members of a club and insist on ignoring the way it operates.

    On a less contentious note, I woke early and have been idly browsing: came across these truly bizarre and wonderful...bus stops:

    http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2015/sep/02/futuristic-soviet-bus-stops-in-pictures

    I remember seeing bus stops with thatched roofs in Sweden and thinking that was pretty cool. This is another dimension.
  • Mr. Palmer, if a confederacy is set up such that at least one of the three largest members feels unhappy, it's set up badly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,529
    edited September 2015

    JEO said:



    As for the EU being sick of us 'moaning', well thats just a terrible mentality. We're the third largest member. The other two major members get their concerns addressed from the get-go via the common position set by a Franco-German summits, so it is a complete double standard to ignore ours. And it is foolish to ignore our views: they would have been saved the Eurocrisis had they listened to our criticism to the Euro currency. If they show they just expect us to get along with everything over our own national interest than EU solidarity is a meaningless concept that only applies for more EU integration and we should leave.

    But why are there Franco-German summits that set the tone? Because we don't get involved early enough. There have been periods where Britain and Germany in particular worked actively together and France felt left out, but Cameron's approach has been to sit on the sidelines, muttering audibly about how boring it is to sit through long meetings, and then thump the table with objections when it's already been half-decided. The EU doesn't work like that and it's daft to be members of a club and insist on ignoring the way it operates.

    On a less contentious note, I woke early and have been idly browsing: came across these truly bizarre and wonderful...bus stops:

    http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2015/sep/02/futuristic-soviet-bus-stops-in-pictures

    I remember seeing bus stops with thatched roofs in Sweden and thinking that was pretty cool. This is another dimension.
    Have to say the Guardian Travel section is excellent. Very interesting bus stops as well.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    That's why I still think Labour will draw back from the edge. Once elected, a Labour leader could order the slaying of the newborn and the MPs would queue up to defend it. The Tories are only slightly less loyal.

    The hope of some Labourites, that Jezza will shake the party up and then quietly withdraw, are nonsense. In 1970-Jezza-land, dictators stay the course.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Arthur Tiger Pringle added: “I was one of of people who stuck in Turkey for the cancelled return flight. Have to say I cant fault Thomas Cook.
    :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Plato said:

    Nancy heads was rather a fine insult in my book :smile:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Surely he has to complete the renegotiation first.

    Maybe he has been told he will not get anything substantial.
    He's been told to piss off. That's been pretty consistent from the start.
    There's been an assumption that Cameron will be offered something that he can put to the British electorate. I think there's a good chance that he'll be offered nothing. Other EU governments are sick of us not sharing their dream of integration, and may well be pleased to see us go.
    I don't believe that for a number of reasons. Firstly, the UK is the second biggest contributor to the budget. The financial strain that a UK departure would place on the EU is considerable.

    Secondly, the UK leaving the EU would significantly reduce the size and strength of the Institution. We are still one of the top 5 or 6 economies in the world. An institution that was willing to turn itself inside out to keep Greece on board would not wish to lose its second largest member (in population). The negotiating strength with the US in the trans-Atlantic trade agreements would, for example, be significantly different.

    Thirdly, Germany in particular needs the UK to counterbalance the Latin/French block and allow them to keep their economy successful by being related to the real world.

    Fifthly, there is the risk of contagion. If we are concerned about being dominated by a EZ bloc how would the other none EZ countries feel without us there? They would either have to sign up or leave too.

    I could go on but what is the point? Most EU leaders have been clear that they want Britain to stay and recognise that we have some genuine issues of concern. Irritation with our reluctance to do our share on asylum seekers, for example, is a small weight in the balance.


    For the longest time I didn't think we could risk leaving, but if we keep grumbling and them complaining about that the who,e thing suffers. They want us to put up or shut up.
    Hmm, odd auto correct - 'many' heads to 'nancy' heads.
    Sometimes the greatest achievements are discovered by accident I guess. I shall now claim it was intentional!
  • New thread

  • Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Surely he has to complete the renegotiation first.

    Maybe he has been told he will not get anything substantial.
    He's been told to piss off. That's been pretty consistent from the start.
    There's been an assumption that Cameron will be offered something that he can put to the British electorate. I think there's a good chance that he'll be offered nothing. Other EU governments are sick of us not sharing their dream of integration, and may well be pleased to see us go.
    I know the EU pretty well and I've been saying from the start that they're not in the mood to offer major changes: they are bored with what they see as Cameron striking attitudes at their expense. They see us like an irritating aunt in residence who keeps moaning about the décor - they wouldn't throw her out or want her to be miserable but they aren't going to redecorate the house in magenta for her either.
    Fine. The chances of a vote to leave improve.
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