Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It takes a nation of millions to hold us back
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It takes a nation of millions to hold us back
Picture yourself for a moment as Nicola Sturgeon. Right now, she presides over a hegemony. At every level of Scottish politics, the SNP has routed its opponents. It has 56 out of 59 MPs. It has an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament. It has more local authority councillors than any other party.
0
Comments
heading for $30 a barrel and looking like staying that way for a while.
The Nats still can't face up to the economics arguments.
This might be the point at which the SNP tide recedes. A second referendum could lose moderates who endured two years or more of campaigning, as well as ignoring the 'sovereign will of the Scottish people'. But without it, the fired-up chaps desperate to leave the union might jump ship to the Caledonian People's Front.
If Labour Nabobs care so much about their country why don't their families live here ?
"Rush for dual-nationality passports as EU migrants fear Brexit
From work permits to healthcare, pensions to tax, EU citizens in UK and Britons in Europe worry they could be in a precarious position after 2016’s referendum"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/17/dual-nationality-passports-eu-migrants-fear-brexit-european-union-referendum
I had thought that was indeed Corbyn's intent? Sounds about right. It's at the point where we need some majorly sized builds, not merely relaxing of laws to enable a few dozen here, a few hundred there. And the speed at which it's needed requires some people will have to get hard done by sadly, I'd hate to be one of them, but it really is a, apologies, greater good situation.
I am certain there will be another vote by 2020 at the latest.
We want to have another referendum but the english Tories are stopping us ! It'd suit both Dave and Nicola...
If people are handsomely, very handsomely, compensated, then much of the Nimbyism would disappear. Being stingy with compensation to those affected is a false economy.
Something wrong with my editing: only the last 2 sentences are mine.
If, in a well-organised national plebiscite, technically legal or not, there was a big majority for independence it's difficult to see how it could be ignored, as the Spanish government are finding out over Catalonia (and indeed, found out over Gibraltar that time they tried to annex it by some casuistic legal device a few years back).
Cameron's best bet under the circumstances would likely be to concede a second referendum, and blame all the fuss and bother on a bunch of hardline lunatics who can't take an honest answer. That would almost certainly produce an even terser 'no', because one thing people hate more than being told what they must do is being told they chose wrong the first time. That would destroy the independence movement and might also severely damage the SNP, two consummations devoutly to be wished from his point of view.
Of course the fun would really begin if Sturgeon got her 'lock' on the referendum and the Scots voted for withdrawal from the EU and the English or Welsh didn't. Now there's a glorious counterfactual scenario to play with...
My views on the EU, like most of my fellow conservatives, are entirely pragmatic: are the benefits worth the costs? This is the difference between conservatism and other belief systems. It is based on accumulated judgment and experience rather than abstract first principles.
In terms of pros of the EU, we get low bureaucracy exports to the EU, decision-making input into rule-setting, easy travel to other EU nations, and certain prestige effect. In terms of cons, we get high membership fees, higher food costs, high levels of unskilled immigration, a lot of unnecessary regulation, high membership fees, an unchecked judiciary, and constricted trade elsewhere.
Ten years ago, the benefits outweighed the costs. But right now the benefits are declining (such as being shut out of decision making by the Eurozone; the value of EU trade as the Eurocrisis goes on and on), and the costs have grown substantially (higher levels of immigration; membership fees going up arbitrarily; increased judicial activism; losing out on trade with emerging markets). Now it seems like the costs outweigh the benefits. Perhaps David Cameron will be able to redress the balance. Perhaps he will not. But my views, and I suspect the views of most right-wingers, will be focused on that, rather than any ideology.
“if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”
I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.
Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.
"Anti-Corbyn Labour MPs are discussing two alternative strategies should he be victorious on September 12, according to Dan Hodges.
*The Free French strategy: Labour MPs would withdraw all support, refusing to serve in his shadow cabinet and declining to observe the Labour whip. Just as Charles de Gaulle and his Free French forces retreated to exile in Britain after the Germans invaded France in WW2, returning only on D-Day to liberate their homeland, so Labour MPs would hang back until Corbyn gives up and a new election has to be called.
*The Maquis strategy: Another direct reference to WW2, this involves "staying behind enemy lines" and fighting the enemy from within, as the French Resistance guerillas chose to do. Senior MPs would exploit Corbyn's promise to hold elections for all shadow cabinet posts, and proceed to oppose his more radical policies and "start to construct an independent base" within the Parliamentary Labour Party from which to launch a coup when the time is right."
I saw a disturbing piece on Countryfile yesterday. Apparently, there's a bill going through Holyrood to reduce the ownership rights of Scottish landowners - opening the doors for a land grab a la Zimbabwe.
Number of votes +3 million
Share of vote +9.5%
Whatever happened to the good old days?
Cumbria and Staffordshire come out well of this survey of places in the UK that combine affordable housing with a good standard of living. Funnily enough, both counties had some of the biggest swings to the Conservatives at the general election:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3200706/Map-shows-best-places-live-Britain-affordability-meets-happiness.html
Top 10:
Allerdale
Ribble Valley
Copeland
Staffs Moorlands
Stockton
North Lincs
Darlington
East Cambs
Stafford
Western Isles
Bottom 10:
Haringey
Lewisham
Brentwood
Brent
East Hampshire
Oxford
Ealing
Hammersmith & Fulham
Enfield
Guildford
Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.
EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.
How come you found that such a surprise?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwEEunEgSeY&feature=youtu.be
He's right.
On two parent families I'd agree - I think that's the best model too, although I don't agree with demonising single-parents, but trying to create a society were two-parent families can occur as much as possible. I feel one parent cannot do everything. On marriage, I'm neither here nor there with marriage - a lot of people use the security of marriage to mistreat their partner though, which is why I probably wouldn't get married.
On boundaries - are you in favour or physical punishment like smacking? Personally, I don't agree with it. As I said previously:
25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
He's made the elder Miliband look good.
Meanwhile Burnham will be on the back-end of a landslide defeat.
Magnitude 4.0
Hey, folks. Meet the economics 'genius' behind Jeremy Corbyn by Tim Worstall
Andy Burnham should have been beaten anyway, and will never be Prime Minister
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/632194034321068032
Then again, if he succeeds, Labour have Andy Burnham as leader. Heads the Tories win, tails Labour lose...
Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
Looks as though the all-conquering Nicola Sturgeon is also prone to fudging things.
http://www.tickld.com/x/13-complete-soldiers-kits-from-the-armies
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
The newcomers took the land they encountered at face value, and at face value it was a find: vast, cheap, temperate, fertile, and, to all appearances, remarkably benign.
A century and a half elapsed before anyone had any inkling that the Pacific Northwest was not a quiet place but a place in a long period of quiet.
But I think it will be very difficult for those MPs opposed to Corbyn to do something effective which will not be - or look - anti-democratic. Interesting times ahead for Labour, whoever wins.
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/a-small-gesture-of-solidarity#/story
Does Thailand have a terrorist problem? All I know about is the Bali bomb.
;-)
But the sentiment is noted, a fine piece by Antifrank.
Mr. Pulpstar, not sure about that, though it's not my forte.
Number of seats: -1
https://twitter.com/commentisfree/status/633262574323240960
One of the things I'm socially conservative about is old fashioned politeness and good manners. I would be a hypocrite if I believed that and did not do my best to be respectful to those who disagree with me. I feel like opposing marriage based on its abuse is like opposing the existence of police force because of police abuse. The right approach is to address the abuse, rather than the institution. I don't like how many people think of marriage as "just a bit of paper" when it is nothing of the sort. The very act of being prepared to publicly commit your lives and everything you have to each other I think achieves a major psychological effect. There's a tremendous sense of relationship stability and happy contentment that comes from locking a relationship in legally.
In terms of smacking, I am instinctively opposed as I have never needed to do it with my children. However, I am aware that the more unruly teens tend to have far less respect for authority figures these days than they used to, and this correlates quite closely to the decline in smacking. But as I lean against, I'd like to see if we could repair this with bringing back non-physical discipline to schools on a more consistent basis first.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Siamese_Treaty_of_1909
I think the SNP's real aim is for the UK to become a federal state before any final push for independence. This would resolve many issues - including EVEL, currency and memberships of International Bodies - and would give Scotland the economic levers to grow its economy.
EDIT: just to add, these people aren't planning on staying here forever, but getting a British passport seems a useful precaution.
Mr. Sandpit, backing Kendall enables D. Miliband to get noticed, stake out his position and avoid any risk of the person he backs becoming leader and cocking things up, casting doubt on Miliband's own judgement.