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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corby
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences
The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:-
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Yeh baby !!
Have you or anybody else ever seen a clearer example of a major political party committing suicide?
Some fatalists in Labour seem to be clinging to a Buddhist hope that death by Corbyn via a consensual political suicide pact will result in the reincarnation of the party a few years down the line.
There is always hope ....
Most recently the LibDems went over the cliff for the nation :
"It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known."
Truly a "Tale of Two Parties" - The rest for the LibDems and Labour may last some time ....
I do have one question, though. What surprised you more, how well the SNP did or how badly the Lib Dems did?
A couple of aspects of the eventual results undercooked my ARSE.
In Scotland I expected a slightly better result for Labour and the LibDems, indeed the yellow peril held up much better in a number of seats but the SNP tsumani swept almost all before them.
What surprised, both me and senior Conservatives much more was how the spectre of the SNP played as extensively as it did in England - it effectively handed the Tories their majority nudging about two dozen Labour and LibDem seats into the blue column.
Sturgeon and Cameron - Unlikely partners but they danced a highly successful fandango.
Wherever the Tories are on holiday they'll be sleeping soundly with smiles on their faces.
Will the ABCs today be singing the Red Flag or LoB’s 'Always look on the bright side of life'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs
http://news.sky.com/story/1535425/labour-leadership-brown-will-endorse-cooper
Kiss of death from the demented one…
The Tories have an exquisite problem. Do they throw everything at JC immediately and risk his early departure, or do they drip it out in the hope he will stick around as close to 2020 as possible? The slight risk with that is that this will give JC time to build a strong enough rapport with enough of the electorate to prevent a Tory majority in five years.
Finally, interesting that Farage sees a Corbyn leadership as a boost for the Out side in the forthcoming referendum. How will that affect UKIP attacks on Labour? It does seem as if the one significant piece of damage Corbyn could do the Cameron Tories is in the EU referendum. A defeat for the PM would set some pretty fascinating trails in motion. Maybe that's an incentive for all out Tory attack from Day One.
Our democracy will not be the stronger for this idiocy but it will recover, eventually. The lessons of the 80s will have to be learned all over again.
In 10 days time it's likely the result will be sealed beyond doubt in the ballot box, but we won't hear about it for a further month.
Now her time has come, she's been (up until now) virtually invisible, inaudible and inhibited.
She has probably left it too late though. And as for Burnham, words fail me. I will stick with utterly pathetic.
Has come at some cost, mind.
@Mr_Eugenides: It now reads, "if Jeremy Corbyn wins, prepare for a firestorm." Funny that.
@Mr_Eugenides: "Editor's Note, 11 August 2015: The headline was changed at the request of the author."
Labour is not supposed to be a debating club in need of a wider discussion, it is a political party and should be focussed on results so its beliefs can actually be implemented.
There's something truly rotten in the LP , methinks
Too soon to say the Labour Party Will Never Bag Prime Minister?
The Right are mocking Owen Jones because he's a Tw@.....
Corbyn is an anachronistic fool and a real failure who has achieved nothing after 32 years in Parliament, and yet , he is going to turn the LP into a mirror image of himself ..the once mighty LP is set to become a pathetic protest party and debating society led by a sanctimonious old fool and preening poseur ..merely a party of political masturbation that pleasures themselves while producing nothing of value ...the Tories have good reason to laugh , so this is how great Parties die , not with a bang but with a whimper
Will he strike a chord with the electorate by 2020? We all worried whether the Cons had done too good a job of recovery such that people wondered "what was all the fuss about" and hence might vote Lab this last May.
Events notwithstanding it might be similar in 2020. Better/worse even. But the electorate showed at the GE that they are just as sophisticated as the commentariat. Corbyn either stays bonkers left in which case he will get a shellacking, or he tries to tack right in which case he will get a shellacking.
It took me until 1997 to vote for Tony The Tory. After Not Flash, Just Gordon [I mean really?] wrecked the economy - I suspect I won't vote for them again in my lifetime. But there's a whole fresh crop of starry-eyed numpties who won't believe how it ended back then.
Even now we have the most creative excuses as to why Foot lost in 1983 - and it was nothing to do with the Suicide Note apparently. When we're up against the Jezziah - it's pointless trying to reason with them.
The pie chart makes Corbyn look like an angry Pacman.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33921047
The way things are going, Corbyn could very easily win on the first round and therefore second, never mind third, preferences become as irrelevant as a debate on the merits of a chocolate teapot (which three of the candidates bear a curious resemblance to).
I know the polls haven't exactly covered themselves in glory this year, but if @david_herdson is right and 42% on first preferences would be enough to secure Corbyn overall victory on these kind of numbers it's impossible to see any other outcome. When was the last time a poll was out by 15 points?
To be quite candid though, given how shockingly inept the other three candidates have been the if anything the surprise is that 43% of people still intend to vote for them.
Too true ...if you had fallen asleep Rip Van Winkle style and then awakened after 2 months it would simply be unbelievable ...these events are best viewed through the lens of a quasi religion than politics ; something like the'' independence mania'' that gripped much of Scotland exactly one year ago ..the voters in England who have abandoned critical thinking skills and are walking lockstep like a crowd of zombies behind the saintly Corbyn are the same folks who followed Sturgeon in Scotland last August ..just political munchkins on the yellow brick road to Independence/ utopia .and let's face it , Sturgeon and Corbyn are the single most over rated politicians in Britain today ; but now it's all too late , they have tuned out any rational criticism and are now flying on autopilot
We Brits cannot be too smug about the failures of the Greeks when in Corbyn /Sturgeon we have are own version of Syriza ...simply gormless beyond belief !
Yup
@YanniKouts: Tsipras survives with up to 42 rebel votes or abstentions. 43 is the lethal number. #Greece
Here, Corbyn has the explicit backing of just 20 members of the PLP...
But as you know English Grammar is hardly taught in schools today, so how can you expect that BBC to get it right?
I seem to remember that Heath used to have plenty of young people to crew his yacht - including pretty girls.
The vast majority of voters will know their choice already and send them straight back - a lesser number will still make their choice within a few days - that leaves a small rump of undecideds.
Jezza's been recruiting supporters from the stump twice a day every day, mass phone-banking, blitzing the union databases with one-click instant registrations, and actually saying eye-catching things [mad but memorable].
He's totally left them standing. He deserves to win just for effort alone. The rest have only themselves to blame here.
....On the other hand those voting next week will reflect and despite being tempted by the tinsel an glitter of a Corbyn win will take the pragmatic route and vote Cooper. My feeling is that a Cooper Corbyn race would have gone decisively to Cooper. It's only the ordinaryness of Burnham thats making everyone but Corbyn look so dull
Agree entirely – Corbyn at 66, has shown more oomph than the rest put together.
The other problem, is that EdM had left them bereft of viable policies and so had nothing on which to build. However there was plenty of room for JC to build policies that are outside of their spheres of thinking. They are just starting to realise - too late - that overconfidence brings vulnerability.
I seem to remember that Heath used to have plenty of young people to crew his yacht - including pretty girls.
I assure you, Financier, I am obsessive on SPaG. I can't speak for all schools, of course. Indeed, I turned down a job in one school in Oxfordshire, which shall be nameless, when I noticed that somehow they had managed to spell the school's name incorrectly on the sign at the entrance (disturbingly, that school was rated 'Outstanding' by OFSTED). But in all the four schools I have taught in, I have jumped on things like this.
I can't remember back as far as Heath, so I bow to your knowledge of his crewing practices. Maybe he thought they would provide good photographs the tabloid press would actually want to publish? Or am I being cynical?
Denny & Banknock (Falkirk) result:
SNP - 69.1% (+30.2)
LAB - 14.7% (-15.9)
CON - 11.6% (+7.9)
GRN - 4.6% (+4.6)
However .... as with south coast pundits and Labour misfortunes nothing is forever.
Feel I have reached 'final book' now tbh.
(Sorry. Wrong button. Ah well .. it's out there now.)
Mr. Doethur, it irritated me, as someone who as quite good at grammar and spelling, that both combined got something pitiful like 3% of the total mark in English. One would've thought the ability to actually spell and construct the language correctly would be quite important.
Nothing lasts forever. Even the longest, the most glittering reign must come to an end someday.
It didn't surprise me one bit ; I predicted a Tory majority on an almost daily routine from December onwards because I knew intuitively that folks in England would never take the risk of a weak Miliband being held to ransom by Lady Macbeth , regardless of what the polls said
Cameron was always going to win the most seats but it was the witless Sturgeon proudly boasting on live TV that she was going to ''lock the Tories out '' that spooked the centrist voters into the arms of the Tories ...the voters in England were not going to allow the odious SNP to pick their pockets for 5 long years, that's for sure !
'Almost' as in 'around'. I thought about 'almost a hundred and two ' years ago but it lacked bite!
I can't remember back as far as Heath, so I bow to your knowledge of his crewing practices. Maybe he thought they would provide good photographs the tabloid press would actually want to publish? Or am I being cynical?
Good for you. I go back to the days when Eng Language and Eng Lit were separate subjects at O Level.. Most days in our office, someone asks how to spell something. In fact all client reports have to be vetted by me for good and simple English (jargon free) as well as correct technical and scientific content and conclusions.
As for "construct correctly", could you please give an example of good and bad English & say why each is which?
That said, looking at his talent pool, Jeremy might be looking at outsourcing the Shadow Chancellor role....
However I must restrain my fulsome praise as your monicker of "Cromwell" has the Jacobite in me reaching for my Lochaber axe !!
3 questions:
1 - How many of the "entryists" come from the SNP? I don't think that has been mentioned. They were willing to tell all those economic lies to their own supporters, so I can't see principles the SNP hasn't got stopping them. Will any data be published by Labour after the fact?
2 - What happens to "supporters" after the Corbyngasm. Are they just names on an email list with new politico-callers, or is it gouing to be turned into a continuing affiliation?
3 - How long do these new members stick around? I can recall Green palpitations about a loss of new members after 3 years when authorisation for auto-payments had to be renewed.