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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll
Away from the Labour leadership the most intriguing political betting market currently is on who will be the Republican party nominee for the November 2016 Presidential Election.
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isam • Posts: 15,402
December 2014
I see no reason why in the near future, when petty , pretend differences are put to one side, there wont be a realignment of the parties
Left leaning Libdem, Progressive Labour, Greens, and SNP
Blairite Labour/Cameroons/Orange Bookers
Old Labour/Right Leaning Tories/UKIP
Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well
"Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.
Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.
And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.
By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."
http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack
Plus, I don't think a leader would drive it, a change in voting system would, but that would fragment it rather than realign it. IMO.
I could imagine that would look something like ...
---Pants-on-head Labour/Greens/even further into the gloom
---Centre-Left Labour/Left-leaning Lib Dem
---Old Labour/some Tories (not too many, but Rob Halfon springs to mind as an archtype)/some UKIP
---Cameroon Tories/Orange Book/very-centre/Blairite Labour
---Pants-on-head Tory/UKIP/even further into the gloom
---Celtic Nationalists as their own grouping
We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1326393-stephen-daisley-interviews-scottish-labour-leadership-hopeful-kezia-dugdale/
Most interesting bit was when Daisley asked her about GE2015. Sounds like the guys just sat around in SLAB HQ churning out tweets and leaflets - what a shower - you'd think with 5 years notice of the election SLAB would've had a better plan of action.
I ask Dugdale why things went so disastrously wrong in May.
“Are you joking? We’ve got a show to see in an hour,” she quips, before venturing: “Lots went wrong. Looking back, there’s quite a few things we could have done differently. Would it have changed the result? No. When Jim and I came into office, we were 23 points behind and we were hoping to close the polls by one point a week; we ended up further back than we started.
“It was a very centralised campaign. We had lots of money and lots of resources but it was all spent through the office in Glasgow. So we had identical leaflets going out to every part of the country, where the message that you want to put out in Edinburgh about the financial sector and jobs connected to that is different from rural transport issues you want to talk about in Fife or housing issues in the East End of Glasgow. It’s technologically easier and cheaper now to have more nuanced messages and we didn’t do that.”
Edit coming.
Then I thought that he can beat Liz Kendall (whom I was also mystified as to why she was on the ballot), but surely not the well known big beasts.
But then as time went by I saw that first Burnham was crap as a campaigner and latter also Yvette, the debates were illuminating to see the contrast between Corbyn and the others on the same stage.
So Labour will have the best leader of the 4 that are on the ballot, which is undoubtedly Jeremy Corbyn, he is the only one of them that has shown basic levels of competence, skills and of course the passion to win the leadership election.
Perhaps there are similarities with the situation in the USA, on paper candidates like Bush are a shoe in but in reality they perform on stage like coffins.
It will be interesting to see the dynamics developing between Cameron and Corbyn, Corbyn's style is very different than Ed Milliband's:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZAn7ZEvwek
Scot P says ''@BethRigby: Just off the phone to a v sensible/capable shadow cabinet figure whose in despair over #Corbyn surge. "Party's gone into complete meltdown"''
'meltdown'? No wonder lefties are anti nuclear.
I'd never heard of Kendall at all.
Corbyn can have a chat with them, and sort it all out.
One can be all starry-eyed about his Magic People's QE Bank - but the rest of it? His list of dubious friends alone provides acres of opportunity.
And that's before the newspapers start digging in a serious way.
I only needed to read some past statements and see some youtube clips of her the first day she ran to understand that she had nothing to do with ordinary people or the Labour party.
She was just an MP in a safe seat behaving and sounding like a safe seat MP.
For me the game was up when in a last ditched effort to win back the mainly male 190,000 voters which SLAB believed it had lost to the SNP, the Labour party deployed its secret weapon, Eddie Izzard, during the last week of the campaign. Eddie appeared in Glasgow and Edinburgh in full battledress, high heels, red mini skirt, silk blouse, lipstick and a 1980s style blue jacket equipped with shoulder pads.
Laid a tenner at 2.74 anyway.
A first rate one.
On the TV debate stage he showed his boring skills to all, along with Walker and Kasick "my father was a mailman", and of course they all bombed especially when compared with Trump on the same stage.
The republican primaries are like a TV show and the audience reacts so far to Bush like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZaEJraN50A
On socialism, well we haven't really had 'socialism' in the UK since the 1940s. If we're talking socialist ideology - like having some state owned things, state intervention in things such as poverty etc then I don't think that will ever die, no matter how much Tories would like it too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JCEzycbjh4
The Times Leader is quite cutting.
''His plan to compel the Bank of England to underwrite deficit financing for any purpose would make counter-inflationary strategy as futile in Britain as it is under the revolutionary regime of Venezuela.''
''His belief that £120 billion can be raised by clamping down on tax evasion is a fairytale.''
''The Nato alliance was in part the creation of the postwar Labour government. Mr Corbyn wants Britain out. His reasoning is not the futile pacifism of Lansbury but his frank belief that today’s aggressors are unfairly maligned. Preposterously, Mr Corbyn maintains that Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine “is not unprovoked” and justifies Russian imperialism in Crimea as “the right of people to seek a federal structure”. ''
''What above all makes Mr Corbyn unsuitable for membership, let alone leadership, of the Labour party, is that he stands outside its democratic traditions.''
He is a saddo fruit loop bigot - egged on by an army of saddo fruit loop bigots . Whatever clever campaigning he brings matters not - his aim brothers and sisters is revolution and what we will see when the tinder he has lit catches fire is the street violence that goes with it.
I'd be wary about laying him because I can see him lasting well and the market remaining underpriced against his real chances, making it harder to lay off until someone does make a breakthrough - but that could be March or later.
In the meantime, who else? Trump? Too risky. Paul? Too radical. Walker? Maybe but short-priced right now. Rubio? More 2020 than 2016 but would make for a good contrast against Clinton.
Dax. -2.68%
FTSE. -1.06%
Dow. -1.3% so far
The euro was devalued by 30% at the beginning of the year and that has hit global manufacturing, they can't compete with german products that are that cheap.
So a lot of countries will be forced to devalue their currencies against the euro.
That's even more car crash than 50 episodes of the Jeremy Kyle show combined.
No wonder Trump has terrible ratings with women.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html
I confirmed my support.
Not sure if I vote Yvette as 2nd pref. but presume Jezza is guaranteed to be in top 2 so probably pointless.
JICILL??
You can pack that in right now....
'Think like a man'? Who came up with that? What's wrong with thinking like a woman - whatever that may be.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
Who have I missed?
both are willing to *say* what many people think, however unattractive it may be to others.
will british politics really have to sink to the level of having principles ?
I think this kind of prolier-than-thou is so beneath any side that uses it and normally it's not the Spectator's side. Has he ever said he's working-class; come to think of it, who still self-identifies as working-class in this aspirational age?
In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.
In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
It is like voting Labour without getting NHS spending, Conservative without getting tax cuts, or Lib Dem without getting electoral reform.
I'm not aware of any applications that would require Win 8 or Win 10 and given both those are massive steps backwards for the PC, they seem utterly bereft of value.
I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
That said I had to laugh at the people who thought the NHS, and specifically GPs should offer 24/7 care and then agreed that it wasn't possible.
I don't think Osborne can get a majority, nor do I think he'd make a good PM - but most likely, he could preside over a minority Tory government. And then pretty much become unpopular from there.
Labour polled 31.2% in May on a GB basis - which is what the polls invariably measure. Hence, no change at all really. People who refer to 30% are being mislead by the UK figure which pollsters almost never use.
The entire point of the PC for the last 20 years has been its strength as a multi-tasking device (even before it was competing with tablets and smartphones). Now that is its entire USP. And Win 8 said "no you will work with one full screen application at a time".
Utterly moronic.
And now Win 10 takes the worst part of the App culture (incremental purchase) and makes it a core of the OS.
Utterly moronic and financially illiterate.
FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
Out of interest, what happened to your support regarding Yvette Cooper?
$30 ahoy !
But, it makes life harder in England and Wales. And, as others have pointed, Corbyn as leader effectively gives the government 11 Unionist votes when it matters.
Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
so poorer than Romania or Southern Italy or Greece or Estonia or Poland ........
If that's true why isn't the flow of emigration away from the UK ?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/lab
Their first "low hanging fruit" is 26th on the list with an SNP majority of 3,718 to overturn despite them pretty much maximising any tactical voting.
Their next "low hanging fruit" is 45th with an SNP majority of 5,597 and is due heavy Boundary Changes which will only help the SNP gain a higher notional majority.
In fact Labour only have 9 SNP seats in their top 100 targets and they are clustered at the upper end of the 100 with majorities well beyond anything Labour can expect to turn around.
And in every single one of these seats, the SNP will have the "first defence incumbence" advantage.
http://4bitnews.com/uk/9-out-of-10-of-the-poorest-regions-in-northern-europe-are-in-britain/
EDIT: http://inequalitybriefing.org/brief/briefing-43-the-poorest-regions-of-the-uk-are-the-poorest-in-northern-
Currently we have
Canada 39% voted for an absolute majority government.
The UK 37% voted for an absolute majority government.
India 31% votes for an absolute majority government.
These numbers are utterly ridiculous.