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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first GOP debate – has it changed your view?

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Laid the draw at 40s to equalise my Aussie red last night. Do Aus have a 5% chance or so to win this ?

    No. It's probably sub-1%. They need to score at least 450 and then bowl England out (as well as taking the remaining wickets). There is time and these things have happened before but only once in a blue moon.
    People always seem wedded to 'original' favourites on Betfair, Aus skinny at 16-1 for the match !
  • MikeK said:

    Talking about taking the easy way to self destruction:
    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6287/sweden-military

    According to a 2013 statement by Sweden's Supreme Commander Sverker Göransson, Sweden can, at best and in five years, defend itself in one place for one week.

    Why bother?

    Icelanders are proud of the fact that they are a nation founded by Vikings that has no army at all.

    If you're talking a week in one place why even bother? May as well go down the Icelandic route.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I'd also suggest Arsenal at 1.3 on betfair is like finding it in the street and Stoke at 3.5 is a good price against Liverpool.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Laid the draw at 40s to equalise my Aussie red last night. Do Aus have a 5% chance or so to win this ?

    Odds of 15/1-20/1 seem about right. Much stranger things have happened in cricket, and for all the laughing and gloating there's still a lot of class in the baggy green caps.
    Tests like Eden Gardens 2001 and Columbo 1992 stick out in cricketing memory precisely because they are unusual. What's more useful from a betting perspective would be to say have a list of Tests won and loss with 200+ leads.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Laid the draw at 40s to equalise my Aussie red last night. Do Aus have a 5% chance or so to win this ?

    Odds of 15/1-20/1 seem about right. Much stranger things have happened in cricket, and for all the laughing and gloating there's still a lot of class in the baggy green caps.
    Much stranger things haven't happened in over two thousand test matches. England lead by 287. As mentioned downthread, the biggest deficit ever overcome was 291, so Australia would almost certainly have to break new ground to win this now. That's not to say it's not impossible but I stick with my assessment that it's less than a 1% shot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    This must be Starc's last over. Focus on seeing him out England.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,515
    Lord Janner told he must attend court hearing

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33814819

    Expect a media circus.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979
    Ali - 26 from 16 shots - all in boundaries. That's got to hurt the Aussies
  • England have scored 105 runs in less than 90 mins this morning.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    England have scored 105 runs in less than 90 mins this morning.

    There's some extraordinarily nervous types on here.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ali - 26 from 16 shots - all in boundaries. That's got to hurt the Aussies

    I can;t decide whether England should get Mo up the order or leave him where he is to frustrate teams who think they have wrapped an innings up.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    OptaJim ‏@OptaJim

    108 - This is the 108th time a team has lead by 300+ when batting 2nd in a Test, only 1 of those games ended in defeat (W95, D11). Anomaly.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeK said:

    Talking about taking the easy way to self destruction:
    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6287/sweden-military

    According to a 2013 statement by Sweden's Supreme Commander Sverker Göransson, Sweden can, at best and in five years, defend itself in one place for one week.

    Why bother?

    Icelanders are proud of the fact that they are a nation founded by Vikings that has no army at all.

    If you're talking a week in one place why even bother? May as well go down the Icelandic route.
    Iceland did however contract out its defence. We will not defend ourselves but we expect others to do it for us is an interesting idea but not necessarily one that will work if a push comes to a shove.

    As for the Swedes, did you read the article?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Laid the draw at 40s to equalise my Aussie red last night. Do Aus have a 5% chance or so to win this ?

    Odds of 15/1-20/1 seem about right. Much stranger things have happened in cricket, and for all the laughing and gloating there's still a lot of class in the baggy green caps.
    Much stranger things haven't happened in over two thousand test matches. England lead by 287. As mentioned downthread, the biggest deficit ever overcome was 291, so Australia would almost certainly have to break new ground to win this now. That's not to say it's not impossible but I stick with my assessment that it's less than a 1% shot.
    You're making me rethink now! Broad and Ali looking like getting us a lead of 350, in which case 100/1 is probably more reasonable than it was half an hour ago.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,515
    Have I suddenly joined cricketbetting.com ?

    (and yes, I've just discovered there is such a site).

    Still, people seem happy with what's happening, so chat on! ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2015
    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Tim Farron on Calais:

    "So this idea they are all money-grabbing people is just rubbish. I got talking to a bunch of guys from Eritrea, from Sudan, from Libya, and these are guys who wanted to come to England. Not one of them had a clue about benefits. They wanted to come to the UK because the UK represents the good life. Not that it’s a bed of roses or it’s cushy; I mean a life where people aren’t shooting at you, where you can be free to worship where you want to worship."

    I hadn't realised that France was a theocratic wartorn place. Tim Farron is really revealing himself to be a political lightweight. As with Ed Miliband, he doesn't apply logical thinking to the context of the case in question, but simply jump to the simplistic ideological response of his partisan background. The problem with this "just let the people breaking into our country come in" message is that it only appeals to the left-wing ideological purists, and Corbyn will have them sown up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    OptaJim ‏@OptaJim

    108 - This is the 108th time a team has lead by 300+ when batting 2nd in a Test, only 1 of those games ended in defeat (W95, D11). Anomaly.

    Ooh Do you have a link to the 1 in 108 game ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    The seems to be a new thread
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    You can have 40/1 if you like.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    Betfair have a market called "Australia Century? 2nd Innings", currently around evens. Not sure if that's for an individual batsman or for the whole team though!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Arf.

    'UKIP will not last and Nigel Farage stands a better chance of becoming a talk show host than winning a Westminster seat, according to David Cameron's election strategist.'

    http://news.sky.com/story/1531473/farage-would-be-better-off-with-a-talk-show
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    You can have 40/1 if you like.
    Which betting company?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    You can have 40/1 if you like.
    Which betting company?
    Me.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    JEO said:

    Tim Farron on Calais:

    "So this idea they are all money-grabbing people is just rubbish. I got talking to a bunch of guys from Eritrea, from Sudan, from Libya, and these are guys who wanted to come to England. Not one of them had a clue about benefits. They wanted to come to the UK because the UK represents the good life. Not that it’s a bed of roses or it’s cushy; I mean a life where people aren’t shooting at you, where you can be free to worship where you want to worship."

    I hadn't realised that France was a theocratic wartorn place. Tim Farron is really revealing himself to be a political lightweight. As with Ed Miliband, he doesn't apply logical thinking to the context of the case in question, but simply jump to the simplistic ideological response of his partisan background. The problem with this "just let the people breaking into our country come in" message is that it only appeals to the left-wing ideological purists, and Corbyn will have them sown up.

    Has Farron gone to Calais to take part in the BBC's 'Songs of Praise' immigrant sing-a-long?

    Talk about rubbing people's noses in it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Wow, re Batman = Peter John, leader of Southwark council and head of children’s policy for all London councils, has never met her or anyone from Kids Company in his five years in post.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    OptaJim ‏@OptaJim

    108 - This is the 108th time a team has lead by 300+ when batting 2nd in a Test, only 1 of those games ended in defeat (W95, D11). Anomaly.

    Ooh Do you have a link to the 1 in 108 game ?
    Well, it's not a normal sort of a result! England beat Pakistan courtesy of Darrell Hair...

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/225258.html
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    JEO said:

    Tim Farron on Calais:

    "So this idea they are all money-grabbing people is just rubbish. I got talking to a bunch of guys from Eritrea, from Sudan, from Libya, and these are guys who wanted to come to England. Not one of them had a clue about benefits. They wanted to come to the UK because the UK represents the good life. Not that it’s a bed of roses or it’s cushy; I mean a life where people aren’t shooting at you, where you can be free to worship where you want to worship."

    I hadn't realised that France was a theocratic wartorn place. Tim Farron is really revealing himself to be a political lightweight. As with Ed Miliband, he doesn't apply logical thinking to the context of the case in question, but simply jump to the simplistic ideological response of his partisan background. The problem with this "just let the people breaking into our country come in" message is that it only appeals to the left-wing ideological purists, and Corbyn will have them sown up.

    With regards to would-be illegal immigrants not knowing about benefits: "Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?". Many, when interviewed, are quite upfront about one of the attractions being that you get a house "straight away". And the French seem pretty convinced that the UK benefit system is a major pull factor.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979
    JEO said:

    Tim Farron on Calais:

    "So this idea they are all money-grabbing people is just rubbish. I got talking to a bunch of guys from Eritrea, from Sudan, from Libya, and these are guys who wanted to come to England. Not one of them had a clue about benefits. They wanted to come to the UK because the UK represents the good life. Not that it’s a bed of roses or it’s cushy; I mean a life where people aren’t shooting at you, where you can be free to worship where you want to worship."

    I hadn't realised that France was a theocratic wartorn place. Tim Farron is really revealing himself to be a political lightweight. As with Ed Miliband, he doesn't apply logical thinking to the context of the case in question, but simply jump to the simplistic ideological response of his partisan background. The problem with this "just let the people breaking into our country come in" message is that it only appeals to the left-wing ideological purists, and Corbyn will have them sown up.

    Farron would let those in Calais who want to come here "because the UK represents a good life."

    What is his logic for accepting them, but then refusing entry to the 20 million who would follow on?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    NEW THREAD
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