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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : August 6th 201

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  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    So - the campaign is officially under way.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    Its over.

    Early conclusion.
    Everyone was bellow expectations.


    Only a few candidates actually were not boring to death:
    Trump started badly off the Fox trap but recovered as he went along.
    Huckabee reminded me of his 2008 self.
    Paul tried to get score points by fights.

    The others are forgettable, with only a mush of stump speeches.
    Kasich: My father was a mailman.
    Bush: Immigration is good.
    Christie: New Jersey is not that bad.
    Walker: I beat the unions.
    Carson: I'm a doctor (but great closing statement).

    I think Trump won the debate but not the expectations.
    Huckabee beat the expectations.

    My rate is:
    Trump 6/10
    Huckabee 5/10
    Paul 4/10
    Carson 4/10

    Everyone else close to 0.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Carson's stock as getting on the bottom half of the ticket up a lot after tonight?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Ben Carson did more for race relations in 1 minute than the Obama administration has in over 6 years
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Carson's stock as getting on the bottom half of the ticket up a lot after tonight?

    As geeks we know who he is, but introducing himself to America tonight he certainly hasn't hurt himself.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ouch, the audience reaction to Trump is terrible.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited August 2015
    FRank Luntz focus group?

    I'm watching about 5 minutes behind
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So how long into the campaign before trump no ,onager has fun so drops out?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Trump, what went wrong? He showed himself for what he is, a casino owner. Ouch, ouch ouch!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,571
    Kasich impressive on policy, but maybe too liberal for the selectorate. Rubio and Walker too smooth and generic - can't recall anything they said. Bush, conversely, reasonably memorable and slightly incoherent. Trump was Trump - doing a fair job of stirring things up, but awfully hard to imagine in the White House. Paul at least consistent on his libertarian streak, but not really credible.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Kasich impressive on policy, but maybe too liberal for the selectorate. Rubio and Walker too smooth and generic - can't recall anything they said. Bush, conversely, reasonably memorable and slightly incoherent. Trump was Trump - doing a fair job of stirring things up, but awfully hard to imagine in the White House. Paul at least consistent on his libertarian streak, but not really credible.

    On policy, he's very much my man. Not sure he will make it to the top of the pile, but he could be the last man standing, and if it ever went to the Convention, well, who knows?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rullko said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
    Except that answer would get you branded an atheist, electoral kryptonite in the US
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MTimT said:

    Trump, what went wrong? He showed himself for what he is, a casino owner. Ouch, ouch ouch!

    I have a feeling that Lutz's focus group is schooled, the party line question in my opinion damaged Trump but not much since most republican voters given a chance would vote for a conservative on a third party or independent rather than a moderate republican.

    Trump still won the debate just not the expectations.
    Only Huckabee beat them, everyone else passed bellow the line.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited August 2015
    rullko said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
    I would actually be curious in what way He had - eg they say they heard gods voice say do x, or felt gods support to do y. The mechanics of it essentially, given rejecting the idea of it happening so bluntly would not go down well in much of America.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    rullko said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
    Cruz actually answered Yes, that God had spoken to him.

    And with that goodmorning.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    edited August 2015
    Speedy said:

    rullko said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
    Cruz actually answered Yes, that God had spoken to him.

    And with that goodmorning.
    They gab every day, apparently.

    I always tell myself that people like Cruz must be cynical liars. Because the possibility that they truly believe these things, when they stand on the threshold of unrivalled power, is just too horrifying.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Speedy said:

    rullko said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    Round 6.

    Has God talked to you? (what a question

    Was it really that bluntly phrased? A fine illustration of our different political environments - I know the question of religion must have come up at some point in the last 5 years over here, but did it at all in the election campaign?
    Yeap, it was a question straight from facebook.
    If one of them had said "No, obviously he hasn't spoken to me, I'm not schizophrenic", he should have been anointed president there and then.
    Cruz actually answered Yes, that God had spoken to him.

    And with that goodmorning.
    And we think our lot are bad! Thankfully religion plays a very minor role in our elections.
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