Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

124

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    The problem is that once they land on British soil, it's game over. There's very little risk of them being sent back to where they came from.

    Also the illegal economic migrants (almost always young fit men, who are aggressive and occasionally armed) know that the government might cave in to pressure from the bleeding hearts and let them in anyway.

    So why shouldn't they try it? What is there to lose?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Finn!!!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    EPG said:

    Indigo said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Wiseman,

    I think "virtue signalling" is a very snappy term and encapsulates exactly what it's about.

    It's much easier feeling good by pointing out that some people are suffering rather than actually doing something. There are people sleeping rough every night. Have you joined the Salvation Army so that you can spend your evening delivering meals and giving them a kind word?

    If you have, I apologise.

    If not, do you get your satisfaction demanding that "somebody should do something"? Do you even think that the Salvation Army are people to be admired?

    Plenty of people are applying elastoplast to rough sleepers without dressing up in weird clothes.

    At least they got of their arses and did something, rather than sitting on forums and social media and pontificating about doing good, then telling all their right on friends at dinner parties that they "made a difference".
    So it's more important to you that people get off their *rses than it is that they fix something.
    It's almost as if rightwingers see getting up of your *rse as... a virtue, and demand that others signal it.
    Where as most left-wingers see sitting on your *rse and pontificating about how wicked the world (and the right) is to their friends on Twitter whilst claiming benefits as a virtue.

    I can do stereotypes as well.
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    Pulpstar said:

    So Ladbrokes join Stan James in now making Jeremy Corbyn the new favourite to win. Corbyn 6/4, Burnham 13/8 Cooper 9/4 and Kendall 33/1.

    Bet365 have them as joint favourites at 13/8 the pair though you can still get 7/4 on Corbyn with Corals, Boylesports and of course Betfair.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader

    Whatever happens this has been an incredible story and sadly one that totally missed me by until quite late on.

    Don't be too hard on yourself Henry, the betting recommendations on both Burnham and Cooper could even now still be used to produce a healthy profit if Corbyn wins at no risk should one of them come in :)
    I got in on Corbyn as a saver at 8/1 but only to cover my historic Burnham (14/1) and my Cooper (7/2 and 5/1) stakes. I don't make much if Corbyn wins - unlike quite a few people it turns out who had him a double digits. I still can't believe Corbyn will win a Labour leadership election, but the evidence suggests it's reasonably likely. Since the election I've been negative about Burnham's chances and that his price was absurdly short. I feel vindicated on that at least and I think the market more accurately reflects his true chance.

    There is some evidence that Burnham is struggling to keep up with Corbyn. It might be an extreme example but apparently last night at Calder Valley's Labour nomination he only got 1 first preference vote out of 44. The real fight was between Corbyn (22 votes) and Cooper (17) with Kendall picking up 4. Just 1 vote in a CLP that borders Lancashire would have been unthinkable for Burnham 2 months ago.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Plato said:

    For your entertainment
    Disneyland Paris charges British visitors 40% more http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4511152.ece

    And German.
    But read beyond the headline and you see they are entitled to offer promotions which vary their charges according to the different holiday patterns of different countries. Whether they are overstepping the mark on this is another matter. I have to say if I have to pay even £950 for a package then I will be rethinking my plans for going.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    Given the scale of the problem Eurotunnel can and should be spending far more on physical security at the Coquelles terminal. But that would affect profits and shareholder returns, hence the burden appears to be falling on the UK taxpayer.

    If it's a national infrastructure asset, perhaps it's time for it be brought under state ownership as was Railtrack?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Fall in odds on Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader now the biggest fall in political betting history say William Hill
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Pulpstar said:

    So Ladbrokes join Stan James in now making Jeremy Corbyn the new favourite to win. Corbyn 6/4, Burnham 13/8 Cooper 9/4 and Kendall 33/1.

    Bet365 have them as joint favourites at 13/8 the pair though you can still get 7/4 on Corbyn with Corals, Boylesports and of course Betfair.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader

    Whatever happens this has been an incredible story and sadly one that totally missed me by until quite late on.

    Don't be too hard on yourself Henry, the betting recommendations on both Burnham and Cooper could even now still be used to produce a healthy profit if Corbyn wins at no risk should one of them come in :)
    I got in on Corbyn as a saver at 8/1 but only to cover my historic Burnham (14/1) and my Cooper (7/2 and 5/1) stakes. I don't make much if Corbyn wins - unlike quite a few people it turns out who had him a double digits. I still can't believe Corbyn will win a Labour leadership election, but the evidence suggests it's reasonably likely. Since the election I've been negative about Burnham's chances and that his price was absurdly short. I feel vindicated on that at least and I think the market more accurately reflects his true chance.

    There is some evidence that Burnham is struggling to keep up with Corbyn. It might be an extreme example but apparently last night at Calder Valley's Labour nomination he only got 1 first preference vote out of 44. The real fight was between Corbyn (22 votes) and Cooper (17) with Kendall picking up 4. Just 1 vote in a CLP that borders Lancashire would have been unthinkable for Burnham 2 months ago.

    That's hugely interesting, thank you.

    I would think the prices ought to be something like:

    Corbyn 6/5
    Cooper 5/4
    Burnham 5/1
    Kendall 33/1
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    RobD said:


    Oooo.. could you do it with Con gaining all of UKIPs vote, and then maybe half of UKIPs vote?
    What a way to start the day...

    Purely another thought experiment...

    Conservative gains with 100% of UKIP going to Conservative in every seat

    From Labour 67 (59 England, 8 Wales)
    From LibDem 3 (3 England)
    From SNP 1 (1 Scotland)
    From UKIP 1 (1 England)
    TOTAL GAINS = 72

    Conservative gains with 50% of UKIP going to Conservative in every seat

    From Labour 32 (27 England, 5 Wales)
    From LibDem 3 (3 England)
    From SNP 1 (1 Scotland)
    From UKIP 1 (1 England)
    TOTAL GAINS = 37

    ...next, I will combine the two experiments.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    JEO said:

    Depicting a man of Muslim heritage as an agent of Satan is pretty disgusting new low for the Mirror. They're really trying to tap into ancient prejudices here:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vampire-sajid-javid-comes-working-6155319

    Its the Mirror, it is beyond a joke of a comic....

    "Vince Cable’s well-regarded strategies have been slung in the shredder and “For Sale” signs slung around the Royal Mail."

    For instance....This would be the same Vince Cable who has already part-privatized the Royal Mail and other than that can anybody name anything that Cable did in his 5 years?
    Its a crass article by Len McLuskey. The Mirror are of course the ones with the disgusting photoshopped image.
    Thicko McLuskey is hopping mad because a man from a working class background has the nerve to be a tory. But we all know that McLuskey is a bigoted a barsteward... and a leech on society.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is great What-Ifery
    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:


    Oooo.. could you do it with Con gaining all of UKIPs vote, and then maybe half of UKIPs vote?
    What a way to start the day...

    Purely another thought experiment...

    Conservative gains with 100% of UKIP going to Conservative in every seat

    From Labour 67 (59 England, 8 Wales)
    From LibDem 3 (3 England)
    From SNP 1 (1 Scotland)
    From UKIP 1 (1 England)
    TOTAL GAINS = 72

    Conservative gains with 50% of UKIP going to Conservative in every seat

    From Labour 32 (27 England, 5 Wales)
    From LibDem 3 (3 England)
    From SNP 1 (1 Scotland)
    From UKIP 1 (1 England)
    TOTAL GAINS = 37

    ...next, I will combine the two experiments.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    Imagine Heathrow is 1500 people charged the main runway while French farmers blockaded the Jumbo Carpark and sprayed manure on anyone trying to leave the M4 at Junction 4.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    watford30 said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Would that make our situation better or worse? The French aren't being good on this but offending them won't make our situation better it will make it many times worse.

    Utter defeatism. It's exactly the sort of "managed-decline managerialism" that I detest in the recent politics of all major parties. When do we decide to act ? When then half a dozen people get killed in the protests next week ? When that 1500 come steaming down the tunnel and run out at Dover ? When they are protesting in Parliament Square? Its just more kicking the can down the road and hoping the problem goes away, what happens if the word gets around and its 3000 rioting in a couple of days time?
    What realistic action do you want to take.

    Sending 2Para to occupy Calais is not realistic.

    All we can do, effectively, is one or more of the following:

    (1) Close the tunnel, permanently or temporarily
    (2) Strengthen the fences
    (3) Send more border control people to Calais, within the constraints of our agreements with France
    (4) Work politically to get France to address the issue properly
    (5) Let them all in

    The government is trying a combination of 2, 3 and 4. Which seems like a logical approach to me. What's your alternative?
    May and Cameron had better hope that 2,3 & 4 work then, because if there's a terrorist atrocity in mainland UK that's attributed to illegals shown to have crossed from Calais, they're in a whole pile of doo doo.

    All the many thousands of nice middle class UK tourists caught up to the chaos are another slow burning headache for them in any EU referendum.
    Where does the EU come into it in regards illegal immigration?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    Depicting a man of Muslim heritage as an agent of Satan is pretty disgusting new low for the Mirror. They're really trying to tap into ancient prejudices here:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vampire-sajid-javid-comes-working-6155319

    Is it okay to portray a Christian as an agent of Satan?
    If it was done to a mainly Muslim audience to stir up prejudice, no, not at all. It's similar to when Michael Howard was depicted as a Jewish bloodsucker.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    JEO said:

    Depicting a man of Muslim heritage as an agent of Satan is pretty disgusting new low for the Mirror. They're really trying to tap into ancient prejudices here:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vampire-sajid-javid-comes-working-6155319

    Wasn't Vlad the Impaler (i.e. Dracula) noted for killing Muslims, rather than being one?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited July 2015
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Plato said:

    Saw a docu on C5 the other day - a lady and her small daughter came to Britain, *lost her passport* and for NINE years was put up in a smart B&B hotel room with benefits for subsistence.

    During that time she wasn't allowed to work either. The whole system needs a massive Press The Reset Button.

    JEO said:

    Of course the judgment and appeals process can take months or even years.

    That's what we should be working on.

    It would resolve tensions (and expenditure) where asylum seekers are housed, it would reduce the wait for genuine claimants and give applicants far less time to make roots (after all if you're here for 9 years, why shouldn't you marry or have kids here) or abscond.

    Whilst some of the delay is to ensure a proper process, it can surely be dramatically reduced.
    Why do we even bother with this process if we to all intents don't ever remove anyone when their various lengthly appeals have failed. On the year mentioned in the DM article quoted below we removed around 3% of the people who had failed their asylum application and appeals. I saw a figure the other day that suggested around half the Somali immigrant population were failed asylum seekers.
    We intend to, we just struggle to.

    The Blair government lost track of who was doing what where and since then the cart has not been righted.

    I don't know if the 3% is entirely right.

    Nearly 7,000 failed asylum seekers left or were deported last year, and I doubt that is out of 200,000 applications.
    In the year in the DM article there were 116,000 applicants, 90% of those failed which would be 104,000, we removed 3,565 or 3.4%
    I think that's just the forced deportations and that 6-7% is the proportion that left. Which does still leave 93%...

    I think some are the same people making fresh applications, potentially more than one in a year, but certainly over multiple years.
  • JEO said:

    Depicting a man of Muslim heritage as an agent of Satan is pretty disgusting new low for the Mirror. They're really trying to tap into ancient prejudices here:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vampire-sajid-javid-comes-working-6155319

    I've only ever seen Dracula portrayed by white actors actually, so i have no idea what you are talking about?!

    I don't often subscribe to the 'PC gone mad' theory but in this case I will!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    watford30 said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    The government is trying a combination of 2, 3 and 4. Which seems like a logical approach to me. What's your alternative?

    6. Send all asylum claimants arriving from Calais back to France as is expected by the treaties we both signed.
    My other post addressed this.

    If the asylum claimants don't *register* in France, France has no obligation to take them back.

    Sangatte is set up to register the claimants. But French take a long time and make it very difficult. And the site is located very conveniently for the claimants to debunk to the UK.

    Few would regard Sangatte as anything more than a hostelry for immigrants biding their time before the next illegal attempt into the UK. – The French have no desire to clear up their mess, until they do, it will be the same political football as it has been for the past 30 years.
    Sangatte shut down years ago.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11348493/Calais-opens-first-migrant-camp-since-Sangatte-closed.html

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1548603/French-go-ahead-with-Sangatte-2.html
    Using it as shorthand for "migrant camp near Calais"
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    FINN!!! 34/3
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    watford30 said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Would that make our situation better or worse? The French aren't being good on this but offending them won't make our situation better it will make it many times worse.

    Utter defeatism. It's exactly the sort of "managed-decline managerialism" that I detest in the recent politics of all major parties. When do we decide to act ? When then half a dozen people get killed in the protests next week ? When that 1500 come steaming down the tunnel and run out at Dover ? When they are protesting in Parliament Square? Its just more kicking the can down the road and hoping the problem goes away, what happens if the word gets around and its 3000 rioting in a couple of days time?
    What realistic action do you want to take.

    Sending 2Para to occupy Calais is not realistic.

    All we can do, effectively, is one or more of the following:

    (1) Close the tunnel, permanently or temporarily
    (2) Strengthen the fences
    (3) Send more border control people to Calais, within the constraints of our agreements with France
    (4) Work politically to get France to address the issue properly
    (5) Let them all in

    The government is trying a combination of 2, 3 and 4. Which seems like a logical approach to me. What's your alternative?
    May and Cameron had better hope that 2,3 & 4 work then, because if there's a terrorist atrocity in mainland UK that's attributed to illegals shown to have crossed from Calais, they're in a whole pile of doo doo.

    All the many thousands of nice middle class UK tourists caught up to the chaos are another slow burning headache for them in any EU referendum.
    Where does the EU come into it in regards illegal immigration?
    Many reasons, not least of which will be Cameron not wanting to piss off the French because he needs their help with fabricating that bit of tinsel he plans to bring back next year and call a credible renegotiation.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've been watching a few US/Mexico border docus and many of the same issues appear there.

    What looks like insane danger crossing deserts on foot where the journey takes longer than the volume of water you could carry to survive [get picked up by Border agents], drowning whilst attempting to swim the Rio Grande, coyotes traffickers, same people being caught/sent back/trying again within hours or days.

    The only difference seems to be the profile of illegals - families seem more evident, though still in a huge minority.

    The US seem a great deal less forgiving and still have a huge issue.

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Plato said:

    Saw a docu on C5 the other day - a lady and her small daughter came to Britain, *lost her passport* and for NINE years was put up in a smart B&B hotel room with benefits for subsistence.

    During that time she wasn't allowed to work either. The whole system needs a massive Press The Reset Button.

    JEO said:

    Of course the judgment and appeals process can take months or even years.

    That's what we should be working on.

    It would resolve tensions (and expenditure) where asylum seekers are housed, it would reduce the wait for genuine claimants and give applicants far less time to make roots (after all if you're here for 9 years, why shouldn't you marry or have kids here) or abscond.

    Whilst some of the delay is to ensure a proper process, it can surely be dramatically reduced.
    Why do we even bother with this process if we to all intents don't ever remove anyone when their various lengthly appeals have failed. On the year mentioned in the DM article quoted below we removed around 3% of the people who had failed their asylum application and appeals. I saw a figure the other day that suggested around half the Somali immigrant population were failed asylum seekers.
    We intend to, we just struggle to.

    The Blair government lost track of who was doing what where and since then the cart has not been righted.

    I don't know if the 3% is entirely right.

    Nearly 7,000 failed asylum seekers left or were deported last year, and I doubt that is out of 200,000 applications.
    In the year in the DM article there were 116,000 applicants, 90% of those failed which would be 104,000, we removed 3,565 or 3.4%
    I think that's just the forced deportations and that 6-7% is the proportion that left. Which does still leave 93%...

    I think some are the same people making fresh applications, potentially more than one in a year, but certainly over multiple years.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited July 2015
    Why, oh why is Finn in the side?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    JEO said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    Depicting a man of Muslim heritage as an agent of Satan is pretty disgusting new low for the Mirror. They're really trying to tap into ancient prejudices here:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vampire-sajid-javid-comes-working-6155319

    Is it okay to portray a Christian as an agent of Satan?
    If it was done to a mainly Muslim audience to stir up prejudice, no, not at all. It's similar to when Michael Howard was depicted as a Jewish bloodsucker.
    Labour consider no tactic too base to attack and undermine the Tories because they believe they have moral authority which excuses anything.
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    One of the political consequences of Corbyn being the betting favourite or joint favourite with bookmakers is that it makes it very hard for the likes of GMB and Unison who have yet to nominate a leader to endorse another candidate. The argument used so far was 'Jeremy can't win the contest so let's look at with Burnham (in GMB's case) or Cooper (in Unison's case). But if you've got your activists and executive members pointing to these odds and the polls saying 'of course he can bloody win' then it makes it much harder to refuse. It would look strange for these unions to remain neutral right now and bizarre for them to back another candidate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2015
    England might be value at 2.42 given the latest score — Australia 34/3:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/cricket/market/1.119079137
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,974

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    I'm not sure Eurotunnel would have any case for financial redress if the grounds for closing it were national security. They really want the adverse publicity of the Govt. arguing Eurotunnel were complicit in allowing potential ISIS terrorists into the UK?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited July 2015
    AndyJS said:

    England might be value at 2.42 given the latest score — Australia 34/3:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/cricket/market/1.119079137

    Good toss to lose. Though I wouldn't be surprised if everyone gets very excited with Oz all out for c. 250 before they then knock us over for c. 150.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Merkel still has a lead of close to 20% in the polls. Remarkable:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election#Poll_results
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Nooooooooooooooooo....rain stopped play....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That would be a beastly game of Guess Who.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's happened to Clegg?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015

    watford30 said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Would that make our situation better or worse? The French aren't being good on this but offending them won't make our situation better it will make it many times worse.

    Utter defeatism. It's exactly the sort of "managed-decline managerialism" that I detest in the recent politics of all major parties. When do we decide to act ? When then half a dozen people get killed in the protests next week ? When that 1500 come steaming down the tunnel and run out at Dover ? When they are protesting in Parliament Square? Its just more kicking the can down the road and hoping the problem goes away, what happens if the word gets around and its 3000 rioting in a couple of days time?
    What realistic action do you want to take.

    Sending 2Para to occupy Calais is not realistic.

    All we can do, effectively, is one or more of the following:

    (1) Close the tunnel, permanently or temporarily
    (2) Strengthen the fences
    (3) Send more border control people to Calais, within the constraints of our agreements with France
    (4) Work politically to get France to address the issue properly
    (5) Let them all in

    The government is trying a combination of 2, 3 and 4. Which seems like a logical approach to me. What's your alternative?
    May and Cameron had better hope that 2,3 & 4 work then, because if there's a terrorist atrocity in mainland UK that's attributed to illegals shown to have crossed from Calais, they're in a whole pile of doo doo.

    All the many thousands of nice middle class UK tourists caught up to the chaos are another slow burning headache for them in any EU referendum.
    Where does the EU come into it in regards illegal immigration?
    France, a leading member of the EU, and supposed 'partner' being uncooperative. Hardly a good sell for the In camp.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    What's happened to Clegg?
    How long have you got? Check the archives, start in April 2010. But I must warn you, it's not pretty. --->
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Andy Burnham feels like the Ed Miliband of this contest though, bettingwise.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited July 2015
    antifrank said:

    That would be a beastly game of Guess Who.
    :smile:

    Maybe it's a different game? I'll say Farron, in the Kitchen, with the Lead Piping.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy Burnham feels like the Ed Miliband of this contest though, bettingwise.
    Interesting that so many oddsmakers are running ahead of Betfair on this one. It's probably partly liabilities - but bookies usually have a good nose for a "false favourite" too...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,338
    Moses_ said:

    Sky breaking news


    It's only a matter of time. ..........

    What is so wrong with France they have to do this???

    ydoethur said:

    Financier said:

    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky breaking news
    Monday night / Tuesday morning over1500 migrants attempted to storm the eurotunnel. Major damage to fences security overwhelmed. One person died in the attempt

    Massive problems for freight and costing up to 1.5 million a day to local business.

    COBRA meeting today PM chairing.


    It's only a matter of time. ..........

    What is so wrong with France they have to do this???

    Nothing. France is a wonderful civilised country. They don't get benefits though. Tough.

    Riot police should be permanently deployed now IMHO. This has gone beyond fences.
    Tell... the French authorities that tunnel closure will be enforced unless they get their collective acts into gear.
    Continent isolated etc etc etc
    There are plenty of other continental ports that don't have a problem, so it's hardly 'isolationism'.

    Why aren't there similar issues at Dunkirk, Caen or Boulogne?
    No tunnel, less lorries to access?
    In the case of Caen, it's a longer crossing as well - sensible migrants might well think twice before being trapped in an airless, foodless, waterless container for 6-7 hours on board ship. Hop on a lorry, half an hour by train and then jump off again sounds a lot more attractive.
    The only long term solution is a harmonised system between France and Britain on the processing of asylum seekers/economic migrants. Either we match the French system (no benefits or assistance until you've been processed) or they match ours (assistance on arrival).

    I don't know why its taking this long for people to figure that out?
    Under the relevant Convention asylum seekers are obliged to seek asylum in the first safe country. So they should either seek asylum in France or in which ever country they first landed. Isn't the problem that the French are not processing the asylum claims and/or the migrants are not making them?

    Don't we have to announce that anyone coming to the UK from France will not be treated as an asylum seeker and will either be sent back to France, their country of origin or from which ever country they left.

    As for the immediate security issues, maybe we need armed guards etc on this side as well.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited July 2015

    Nooooooooooooooooo....rain stopped play....

    First of what could be a few showers over the coming days. Hopefully for us draw-layers they are only light and passing quickly.
    Luckily for England their bowlers decided to turn up on time. Aus 38/3.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    At least the rush of immigrants suggests that the UK is an attractive country.

    A bit like Mr Wiseman's view of the old USSR. That must be why they put up all those walls to stop the West Berliners rushing into the land of milk and honey. Mind you, shooting them was a bit extreme.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Cruel.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    I'm not sure Eurotunnel would have any case for financial redress if the grounds for closing it were national security. They really want the adverse publicity of the Govt. arguing Eurotunnel were complicit in allowing potential ISIS terrorists into the UK?
    Oh come on, closing the tunnel without absolute proof of a terrorist attack is ridiculous. Besides, it would simply make problems worse as traffic is diverted to the ferries at Dover. Goods stuck in Op Stack are being destroyed out of date regularly, this problem, of which most of the country has been unaware, is crippling hauliers and other local businesses. The govt are unable and unwilling to get to the root of the problem, its a combination of striking workers, crazed migrants risking lives to get here and a lack of forward traffic planning in Kent.

    Most think its new, its been getting progressively worse since 1996

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited July 2015
    The final thought experiment - a polarised election.

    ASSUMPTIONS:
    The SNP are not part of any grand coalition in this hypothetical situation.
    Norther Ireland remains "as is", but Sinn Fein attend Westminster.
    In each seat, all LibDem and Green votes rally behind Labour.
    In each seat, UKIP votes rally to the Conservatives, either 100% or 50%.

    With 50% UKIP Transfer to Conservative
    314 Conservative
    263 Labour
    51 SNP
    3 Plaid Cymru
    19 Others
    -----------
    Cons 314, Opponents 336, Conservative minority of 22

    With 100% UKIP Transfer to Conservative
    367 Conservative
    211 Labour
    51 SNP
    3 Plaid Cymru
    19 Others
    -----------
    Cons 367, Opponents 284, Conservative majority of 83
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Indigo said:

    They'd escape through porous means once across the water. They'd be hiding and sneaking off through any means possible - and if at first they didn't succeed once back in France they'd try again next week because why not.

    Meanwhile the government takes in excess of three to six months to grant a visa to someone absolutely entitled to one. Not only that while helping people in Calais, they offer no help what so ever even to British Citizens in foreign countries trying to obtain visas for relatives. I went with a friend to the British Embassy last week and he didn't even get through the door to ask his question, he was handed a piece of paper with a website address on it, and a phone number he could call to talk to a call centre (for 137p/min + call charges). Don't even get me started about the disgrace that is the current Financial Support rules which force British citizens to leave their children (by marriage) in foreign countries because they don't earn enough, and yet we admit vagrants from new EU countries without asking a single question.
    I never said that the situation with the UK is perfect. I'm just saying that if we don't co-operate with France the problem in France will become our problem.
    It already is our problem, the economy in East Kent is being crippled

    And would be crippled ten times more if the camps were on our side of the border or the Chunnel was closed altogether as some of the bizarre suggestions we've seen so far.

    There hasn't been a single plausible alternative to co-operating with the French posted here yet.
    Co-operation is a two way street. Since the French are doing almost nothing to combat the problem from their side I wonder how much more co-operation you expect us to concede.

    It depends how much we want to solve the problem. If we don't care then let this drag out indefinitely. If we care passionately we're going to have to offer a lot of co-operation.

    As I said in my first post on this, it is pure and simple realpolitik. There are no -isms to this, unless and except you're such an extremist you think the UK and France should be the same country of Europe rather than separate countries with their own domestic priorities in which case the problem would disappear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    See you again in 2018. :wink:
    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    hope it's better than the reports i've read about the beta
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Nooooooooooooooooo....rain stopped play....

    First of what could be a few showers over the coming days. Hopefully for us draw-layers they are only light and passing quickly.
    Luckily for England their bowlers decided to turn up on time. Aus 38/3.
    On and off light drizzles and cloud cover can help the bowlers and thus harm the draw. If you lose 10 overs but get 3 extra wickets then a result is more likely.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    I'm not sure Eurotunnel would have any case for financial redress if the grounds for closing it were national security. They really want the adverse publicity of the Govt. arguing Eurotunnel were complicit in allowing potential ISIS terrorists into the UK?
    Oh come on, closing the tunnel without absolute proof of a terrorist attack is ridiculous. Besides, it would simply make problems worse as traffic is diverted to the ferries at Dover. Goods stuck in Op Stack are being destroyed out of date regularly, this problem, of which most of the country has been unaware, is crippling hauliers and other local businesses. The govt are unable and unwilling to get to the root of the problem, its a combination of striking workers, crazed migrants risking lives to get here and a lack of forward traffic planning in Kent.

    Most think its new, its been getting progressively worse since 1996

    National security clearly is a concern in this instance, else why would emergency COBRA meetings be held to discuss the issue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited July 2015
    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2015
    LOL!

    Can that possibly be an error?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just read a serious comment on the Independent website saying Corbyn can win a general election because he's been elected 8 times in Islington and has a 21,000 majority. Talk about living in a bubble. And there are many more comments like it on numerous sites.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Would that make our situation better or worse? The French aren't being good on this but offending them won't make our situation better it will make it many times worse.

    Utter defeatism. It's exactly the sort of "managed-decline managerialism" that I detest in the recent politics of all major parties. When do we decide to act ? When then half a dozen people get killed in the protests next week ? When that 1500 come steaming down the tunnel and run out at Dover ? When they are protesting in Parliament Square? Its just more kicking the can down the road and hoping the problem goes away, what happens if the word gets around and its 3000 rioting in a couple of days time?
    What realistic action do you want to take.

    Sending 2Para to occupy Calais is not realistic.

    All we can do, effectively, is one or more of the following:

    (1) Close the tunnel, permanently or temporarily
    (2) Strengthen the fences
    (3) Send more border control people to Calais, within the constraints of our agreements with France
    (4) Work politically to get France to address the issue properly
    (5) Let them all in

    The government is trying a combination of 2, 3 and 4. Which seems like a logical approach to me. What's your alternative?
    May and Cameron had better hope that 2,3 & 4 work then, because if there's a terrorist atrocity in mainland UK that's attributed to illegals shown to have crossed from Calais, they're in a whole pile of doo doo.

    All the many thousands of nice middle class UK tourists caught up to the chaos are another slow burning headache for them in any EU referendum.
    Where does the EU come into it in regards illegal immigration?
    France, a leading member of the EU, and supposed 'partner' being uncooperative. Hardly a good sell for the In camp.
    Alternatively France and the UK acting in their own respective national interests according to their own democracy in their own sovereign territories hardly is a sell for the myth of a European Superstate the Out camp portrays.

    If the EU was as overbearing as BOOers make out then they could resolve this situation by trampling on national sovereignty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
    I have a 7 PC and an 8 Laptop. I'll be downloading it onto my Laptop ASAP and waiting to see how it goes for my PC ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm still trying to recover from W8 and using a W7 emulator. I won't touch W10 for at least two years.

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    antifrank said:

    That would be a beastly game of Guess Who.
    :smile:

    Maybe it's a different game? I'll say Farron, in the Kitchen, with the Lead Piping.
    Given his views on certain issues, I doubt that he would have lead piping with any of the potential candidates
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Cyclefree said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky breaking news


    It's only a matter of time. ..........

    What is so wrong with France they have to do this???

    ydoethur said:

    Financier said:

    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky breaking news
    Monday night / Tuesday morning over1500 migrants attempted to storm the eurotunnel. Major damage to fences security overwhelmed. One person died in the attempt

    Massive problems for freight and costing up to 1.5 million a day to local business.

    COBRA meeting today PM chairing.


    It's only a matter of time. ..........

    What is so wrong with France they have to do this???

    Nothing.
    Tell... the French authorities that tunnel closure will be enforced unless they get their collective acts into gear.
    Continent isolated etc etc etc
    There are plenty of other continental ports that don't have a problem, so it's
    No tunnel, less lorries to access?
    In the case of Caen, it's a longer crossing as well - sensible migrants might well think twice before being trapped in an airless, foodless, waterless container for 6-7 hours on board ship. Hop on a lorry, half an hour by train and then jump off again sounds a lot more attractive. </</p>
    Under the relevant Convention asylum seekers are obliged to seek asylum in the first safe country. So they should either seek asylum in France or in which ever country they first landed. Isn't the problem that the French are not processing the asylum claims and/or the migrants are not making them?

    Don't we have to announce that anyone coming to the UK from France will not be treated as an asylum seeker and will either be sent back to France, their country of origin or from which ever country they left.

    As for the immediate security issues, maybe we need armed guards etc on this side as well.
    They won't have been stupid enough to claim asylum in France.

    As soon as they set foot in Britain they will though. You can guarantee it. Then the judicial process kicks off, they will be given sanctuary whilst their case is considered, and then they will disappear. Those who are stupid enough to hang around and register know there might be a risk (however small) of one day being deported. And that will never be to France, or anywhere if they can claim they come from somewhere that their human rights will be violated.

    That's why it's crucial to stop them in France. If not, and we check in Dover, our immigration figures will skyrocket. And for that not to happen the French must be kept somewhat sweet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166
    If you liked that, you'll love this!

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/ministers
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've seen the same - and that his maj increased in 2015 so that's UNS...

    Umm.
    AndyJS said:

    Just read a serious comment on the Independent website saying Corbyn can win a general election because he's been elected 8 times in Islington and has a 21,000 majority. Talk about living in a bubble. And there are many more comments like it on numerous sites.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166
    Should I bother downloading 10? Or stick with 8?

    TBF, I've kinda got used to 8 over the last year or so since buying my laptop.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2015
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Plato said:

    Saw a docu on C5 the other day - a lady and her small daughter came to Britain, *lost her passport* and for NINE years was put up in a smart B&B hotel room with benefits for subsistence.

    During that time she wasn't allowed to work either. The whole system needs a massive Press The Reset Button.

    JEO said:

    Of course the judgment and appeals process can take months or even years.

    That's what we should be working on.

    It would resolve tensions (and expenditure) where asylum seekers are housed, it would reduce the wait for genuine claimants and give applicants far less time to make roots (after all if you're here for 9 years, why shouldn't you marry or have kids here) or abscond.

    Whilst some of the delay is to ensure a proper process, it can surely be dramatically reduced.
    Why do we even bother with this process if we to all intents don't ever remove anyone when their various lengthly appeals have failed. On the year mentioned in the DM article quoted below we removed around 3% of the people who had failed their asylum application and appeals. I saw a figure the other day that suggested around half the Somali immigrant population were failed asylum seekers.
    We intend to, we just struggle to.

    The Blair government lost track of who was doing what where and since then the cart has not been righted.

    I don't know if the 3% is entirely right.

    Nearly 7,000 failed asylum seekers left or were deported last year, and I doubt that is out of 200,000 applications.
    In the year in the DM article there were 116,000 applicants, 90% of those failed which would be 104,000, we removed 3,565 or 3.4%
    So any answer of "let them in then send them back" is clearly implausible unless that can be solved. Which it hasn't been. Let them in = let them in to stay in reality.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Windows 8 is an atrocity. I'm not downloading Windows 10 until I've had three independent reports that it's bearable.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166
    Plato said:

    I've seen the same - and that his maj increased in 2015 so that's UNS...

    Umm.

    AndyJS said:

    Just read a serious comment on the Independent website saying Corbyn can win a general election because he's been elected 8 times in Islington and has a 21,000 majority. Talk about living in a bubble. And there are many more comments like it on numerous sites.

    Comrades!

    At GE2015, Labour's vote increased by 1.4% over GE2010!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I don't mind 8 at all.

    I don't understand the problem people had with it, since the 8.1 update I've not had any problems at all in terms of bugs.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    watford30 said:

    Mr. 63, the border must be secured.

    The problem is in France, and of France. Close the tunnel, and let the thousands of migrants trying to get in here enjoy their life in France. A temporary closure would help concentrate minds.

    Yep, and watch Eurotunnel and other businesses sue the govt for fortunes. Imagine Heathrow being shut for a week because a stowaway had been discovered.

    The solution is simple, secure the port and tunnel in a joint effort.

    I'm not sure Eurotunnel would have any case for financial redress if the grounds for closing it were national security. They really want the adverse publicity of the Govt. arguing Eurotunnel were complicit in allowing potential ISIS terrorists into the UK?
    Oh come on, closing the tunnel without absolute proof of a terrorist attack is ridiculous. Besides, it would simply make problems worse as traffic is diverted to the ferries at Dover. Goods stuck in Op Stack are being destroyed out of date regularly, this problem, of which most of the country has been unaware, is crippling hauliers and other local businesses. The govt are unable and unwilling to get to the root of the problem, its a combination of striking workers, crazed migrants risking lives to get here and a lack of forward traffic planning in Kent.

    Most think its new, its been getting progressively worse since 1996

    National security clearly is a concern in this instance, else why would emergency COBRA meetings be held to discuss the issue.
    If anybody thinks the tunnel will be closed in August without serious redress they're mad, this has been festering for 20 years, govt has done nothing, now they are pressing the panic button.

    Of course national security is an issue but its not new, last year the crew of a ferry fired hoses from the deck as dozens of migrants stormed the gangplank in Calais. The French did nothing, we sent a fence, the migrants diverted to the tunnel at Coquelles.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
    I have 8.1 on my laptop and still Vista on my desktop. On my old laptop I still have XP!

    It's a 2 stage deal - it downloads and doesn't install until you tell it to do so. I'll wait a little while to see what happens.

    Windows 8 was a pain until I worked out the keyboard shortcuts. 10 could hardly be worse, assuming it works reliably.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Plato said:

    I've seen the same - and that his maj increased in 2015 so that's UNS...

    Umm.

    AndyJS said:

    Just read a serious comment on the Independent website saying Corbyn can win a general election because he's been elected 8 times in Islington and has a 21,000 majority. Talk about living in a bubble. And there are many more comments like it on numerous sites.

    Comrades!

    At GE2015, Labour's vote increased by 1.4% over GE2010!
    Just one more push! Will it be Jez we can, or Jeez we can't?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2015



    If anybody thinks the tunnel will be closed in August without serious redress they're mad, this has been festering for 20 years, govt has done nothing, now they are pressing the panic button.

    Of course national security is an issue but its not new, last year the crew of a ferry fired hoses from the deck as dozens of migrants stormed the gangplank in Calais. The French did nothing, we sent a fence, the migrants diverted to the tunnel at Coquelles.

    It comes down to *what do you want the government to do*

    - shutting the tunnel is impracticable
    - so they need the co-operation of the French (as you need to stop the problem in France)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    I don't mind 8 at all.

    I don't understand the problem people had with it, since the 8.1 update I've not had any problems at all in terms of bugs.

    You what....I think you need to go and see a doctor asap...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166

    Plato said:

    I've seen the same - and that his maj increased in 2015 so that's UNS...

    Umm.

    AndyJS said:

    Just read a serious comment on the Independent website saying Corbyn can win a general election because he's been elected 8 times in Islington and has a 21,000 majority. Talk about living in a bubble. And there are many more comments like it on numerous sites.

    Comrades!

    At GE2015, Labour's vote increased by 1.4% over GE2010!
    Just one more push! Will it be Jez we can, or Jeez we can't?
    We can hit the dizzy heights of (30.4+1.4=) 31.8% in 2020!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015
    Charles said:



    If anybody thinks the tunnel will be closed in August without serious redress they're mad, this has been festering for 20 years, govt has done nothing, now they are pressing the panic button.

    Of course national security is an issue but its not new, last year the crew of a ferry fired hoses from the deck as dozens of migrants stormed the gangplank in Calais. The French did nothing, we sent a fence, the migrants diverted to the tunnel at Coquelles.

    It comes down to *what do you want the government to do*

    - shutting the tunnel is impracticable
    - so they need the co-operation of the French (as you need to stop the problem in France)
    But the latter seems impossible/unlikely too. They simply want the 'problem' to head north. And every day the numbers waiting in Calais creep ever higher. 5000 today; 10,000 by the end of the Summer? No fence can cope with those numbers, never mind the 200 Eurotunnel security personnel, assuming they're all on duty at the same time. They'll simply push the barricades over and walk through into Kent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited July 2015
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
    I have 8.1 on my laptop and still Vista on my desktop. On my old laptop I still have XP!

    It's a 2 stage deal - it downloads and doesn't install until you tell it to do so. I'll wait a little while to see what happens.

    Windows 8 was a pain until I worked out the keyboard shortcuts. 10 could hardly be worse, assuming it works reliably.
    Crickey...Vista....You have been using Vista all this time. Vista lasted about a week on my machine back in the day and soon got kicked into touch for old faithful XP.

    And 8 / 8.1, is pure filth.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    antifrank said:

    Windows 8 is an atrocity. I'm not downloading Windows 10 until I've had three independent reports that it's bearable.

    I have been using Windows 8 on this PC for 18 months or so and have never had a problem with it. To be sure I have had to learn some new ways of getting at some functions but nothing that was too outlandish or difficult and it has been rock solid. I am not sure why you think it is an atrocity.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I don't mind 8 at all.

    I don't understand the problem people had with it, since the 8.1 update I've not had any problems at all in terms of bugs.

    8.1 is great in terms of reliability, it's just unwieldy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    http://order-order.com/2015/07/29/owen-jones-lie-ra/

    Of course this wont stop him being the go to guy for the BBC when they want a left wing rent a quote.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I got used to Vista. Just glad I missed ME - that sounded dreadful. Had XP for ages - solid OS that shamed Microsoft's next releases.

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
    I have 8.1 on my laptop and still Vista on my desktop. On my old laptop I still have XP!

    It's a 2 stage deal - it downloads and doesn't install until you tell it to do so. I'll wait a little while to see what happens.

    Windows 8 was a pain until I worked out the keyboard shortcuts. 10 could hardly be worse, assuming it works reliably.
    Crickey...Vista....You have been using Vista all this time. Vista lasted about a week on my machine back in the day and soon got kicked into touch for old faithful XP.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166
    Dear Sunil,

    It seems Nicks page is not viewable on some browsers, we are working on sorting it.

    For now his page is here: http://www.libdems.org.uk/nick_clegg

    Kind regards,

    Humaira


    Member & Supporter Services

    T : 02070220988
    E : help@libdems.org.uk

    Liberal Democrats
    8-10 Great George Street, London, SW1P 3AE
    www.libdems.org.uk
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    watford30 said:

    Charles said:



    If anybody thinks the tunnel will be closed in August without serious redress they're mad, this has been festering for 20 years, govt has done nothing, now they are pressing the panic button.

    Of course national security is an issue but its not new, last year the crew of a ferry fired hoses from the deck as dozens of migrants stormed the gangplank in Calais. The French did nothing, we sent a fence, the migrants diverted to the tunnel at Coquelles.

    It comes down to *what do you want the government to do*

    - shutting the tunnel is impracticable
    - so they need the co-operation of the French (as you need to stop the problem in France)
    But the latter seems impossible/unlikely too. They simply want the 'problem' to head north.
    Indeed. So they you have the current government strategy: manage the situation as best you can and put pressure on France to abide by the spirit of their promises as well as the letter of their obligations

    Once you eliminate the impossible, what remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I really feel W8.x is just throwing things at me - forcing me to have a logon password, the apps things, can't use Esc to get out of a rabbit hole and on and on.

    I really DO NOT WANT to see a screen full of boxes and *features* that feel like advertorials.

    And releasing it as uninstallable standard on non-touchscreen PC/laptops was an appalling decision. I know many who are just WTF is this.

    I made this mistake and hence use a W7 emulator to hide 80% of it on one laptop.
    Tim_B said:

    I don't mind 8 at all.

    I don't understand the problem people had with it, since the 8.1 update I've not had any problems at all in terms of bugs.

    8.1 is great in terms of reliability, it's just unwieldy.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Plato said:

    I got used to Vista. Just glad I missed ME - that sounded dreadful. Had XP for ages - solid OS that shamed Microsoft's next releases.

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Cool - Windows 10 is downloading :)

    Brave man....I am going to wait a good 2-3 months before even think about shifting from 7, and even then it will probably be as a dual boot.
    I have 8.1 on my laptop and still Vista on my desktop. On my old laptop I still have XP!

    It's a 2 stage deal - it downloads and doesn't install until you tell it to do so. I'll wait a little while to see what happens.

    Windows 8 was a pain until I worked out the keyboard shortcuts. 10 could hardly be worse, assuming it works reliably.
    Crickey...Vista....You have been using Vista all this time. Vista lasted about a week on my machine back in the day and soon got kicked into touch for old faithful XP.
    I never had any problems with Vista. Just apply all the updates.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015
    Buy a Mac. Stable operating system, a derivative of UNIX. What more could anyone want?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    watford30 said:

    Charles said:



    If anybody thinks the tunnel will be closed in August without serious redress they're mad, this has been festering for 20 years, govt has done nothing, now they are pressing the panic button.

    Of course national security is an issue but its not new, last year the crew of a ferry fired hoses from the deck as dozens of migrants stormed the gangplank in Calais. The French did nothing, we sent a fence, the migrants diverted to the tunnel at Coquelles.

    It comes down to *what do you want the government to do*

    - shutting the tunnel is impracticable
    - so they need the co-operation of the French (as you need to stop the problem in France)
    But the latter seems impossible/unlikely too. They simply want the 'problem' to head north. And every day the numbers waiting in Calais creep ever higher. 5000 today; 10,000 by the end of the Summer? No fence can cope with those numbers, never mind the 200 Eurotunnel security personnel, assuming they're all on duty at the same time. They'll simply push the barricades over and walk through into Kent.
    With respect, as somebody who is in Dover and has direct experience of this problem for years I feel qualified to talk about it. The French have a vested interest in as many migrants as possible leaving Calais, houses won't sell there and the economy is struggling. They are intent on the migrants causing as much trouble as possible in order that we relent and let them in. Meanwhile the local MP and govt is likewise shrugging its shoulders and leaving it to the French.

    There has to be a concerted effort involving ALL sides. I said months ago that nothing positive will happen until a UK lorry driver or tourist is killed, plenty of migrants have died but they're clearly expendable. This will escalate into a serious crisis before long.

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    http://order-order.com/2015/07/29/owen-jones-lie-ra/

    Of course this wont stop him being the go to guy for the BBC when they want a left wing rent a quote.

    So Owen Jones thinks the views of people age 15 should be dismissed as they mere children, yet the views of 16 year olds should decide the government of the country.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    AndyJS said:

    Merkel still has a lead of close to 20% in the polls. Remarkable:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

    Greens and Left certain to get representation, FDP may be over 5%, AfD less likely to be.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    watford30 said:

    Buy a Mac. Stable operating system, a derivative of UNIX. What more could anyone want?
    I have a MBP and am spec'ing up a new one... Also have an old win laptop on win 7 for running Sage. But thinking of trashing it and just running a VM on my mac.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Plato said:

    I really feel W8.x is just throwing things at me - forcing me to have a logon password, the apps things, can't use Esc to get out of a rabbit hole and on and on.

    I really DO NOT WANT to see a screen full of boxes and *features* that feel like advertorials.

    And releasing it as uninstallable standard on non-touchscreen PC/laptops was an appalling decision. I know many who are just WTF is this.

    I made this mistake and hence use a W7 emulator to hide 80% of it on one laptop.

    Tim_B said:

    I don't mind 8 at all.

    I don't understand the problem people had with it, since the 8.1 update I've not had any problems at all in terms of bugs.

    8.1 is great in terms of reliability, it's just unwieldy.
    I don't use any of the apps stuff. I don't have a touchscreen pc either. I have my laptop start up in the old fashioned screen with wallpaper and stuff. I have frequently used programs along the bottom of the screen. Windows key + X or Windows key + I will get you most of what you need. You can close most things with alt-F4.

    Yup, it's old DOS key combinations.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    Everything about Owen Jones makes me cringe - from his Billy Elliott politics, Fatcherism, noodle-brained economics and big-gobbery. Oh, and he blocks anyone who disagrees with him a smidge. He's like GreenBenches AKA Eoin Clarke with fewer libel suits.

    It's all student union politics untouched by reality - yet he made a bomb off his book Chavs.
    JEO said:

    http://order-order.com/2015/07/29/owen-jones-lie-ra/

    Of course this wont stop him being the go to guy for the BBC when they want a left wing rent a quote.

    So Owen Jones thinks the views of people age 15 should be dismissed as they mere children, yet the views of 16 year olds should decide the government of the country.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited July 2015
    Charles said:


    Once you eliminate the impossible, what remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth

    No sh1t, Sherlock! :wink:


    EDIT: "The Sign of the Four"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2015
    Disraeli said:

    Charles said:


    Once you eliminate the impossible, what remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth

    No sh1t, Sherlock! :wink:
    :innocent:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited July 2015
    Rather worrying....Not just those involved in the ill-fated Panorama getting the heave ho, but:


    The main problem is that you don’t have a flat enough management structure. Managers are too far away from the output.”

    He also says that the management structure is “very confused”, with Panorama, for instance, reporting in to managers in television, news and current affairs.

    Asked what he thinks could change at the BBC to make it a more effective news organisation, he says: “Measure people by their output”.

    “They always talk about encouraging original journalism but people are not rewarded for that. Not getting into trouble is a way of getting promoted. If you break stories the chances are you going to cause trouble. It’s the civil service element of the BBC.

    “Because it’s such a large organisation. To some extent it works like the civil service in that you will inevitably rise if you don’t blot your copybook.”

    Jones worries that Panorama under current editor Ceri Thomas has moved away from investigations and towards analysis.

    The BBC is currently in the process of making all the programme’s staff reporters redundant, instead looking to make use of journalists from elsewhere in the BBC on a project by project basis.

    http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/meirion-jones-speaks-out-everyone-who-was-right-side-savile-argument-has-been-forced-out-bbc
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,081
    Tim Farron has announced his party spokesmen and women. He has not only gone to the Lords but also to non-parliamentarians. There are also rumours that his deputy might not be an MP.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited July 2015
    As jwiseman said earlier



    "The rise in living standards over the last few centuries has been the result of scientific advance and the technological advances that have followed from this, which have enabled capitalism, rather than the other way around (though, as a supporter of some moderate aspects of capitalism as long as counterbalanced by strong regulation and redistribution, which was a combination that yielded the highest rises in living standards, I agree the combination has often been symbiotic)."

    This seems to me be so obviously true as to hardly need stating. And yet if you follow political debates you'd get the impression that nobody has ever thought of things that way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Alison_McGovern: Lib Dems have no one to speak for them on the economy in House of Commons? Blimey. https://t.co/Nqcy5QXpSQ

    The question is, of course, can no one do a worse job than Vince the Cable?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2015

    As jwiseman said earlier


    "The rise in living standards over the last few centuries has been the result of scientific advance and the technological advances that have followed from this, which have enabled capitalism, rather than the other way around (though, as a supporter of some moderate aspects of capitalism as long as counterbalanced by strong regulation and redistribution, which was a combination that yielded the highest rises in living standards, I agree the combination has often been symbiotic)."

    This seems to me be so obviously true as to hardly need stating. And yet if you follow political debates you'd get the impression that nobody has ever thought of things that way.Except that capitalism has completely caused the technological progress. The two are completely symbiotic not merely often symbiotic.

  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited July 2015

    As jwiseman said earlier


    "The rise in living standards over the last few centuries has been the result of scientific advance and the technological advances that have followed from this, which have enabled capitalism, rather than the other way around (though, as a supporter of some moderate aspects of capitalism as long as counterbalanced by strong regulation and redistribution, which was a combination that yielded the highest rises in living standards, I agree the combination has often been symbiotic)."

    This seems to me be so obviously true as to hardly need stating. And yet if you follow political debates you'd get the impression that nobody has ever thought of things that way.
    Except that capitalism has completely caused the technological progress. The two are completely symbiotic not merely often symbiotic.



    Erm... no it has come directly from the science, which has largely been carried out well away from the depredations of unrestrained capitalism. The forces of conservatism have fought free thought and scientific progress every step of the way.

    Capitalism has ensured that the fruits of technological progress have been very unequally shared, particularly in the last few decades.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited July 2015
    JWisemann said:

    Erm... no it has come directly from the science, which has largely been carried out well away from the depredations of unrestrained capitalism. The forces of conservatism have fought free thought and scientific progress every step of the way.

    Did you make that post on a laptop, desktop or smart phone?
Sign In or Register to comment.