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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership betting moves back to the boys

It seems the Sunday Times story reported on by TSE in the last thread has prompted a move to Corbyn and Burnham on Betfair who now occupy the two top favourite slots.

Read the full story here

CornishBlue

Burnham becoming the collective anti-Corbyn vote?

Sunil_Prasannan

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Plato

Distant 4th like Liz.

Sunil_Prasannan

Plato said:

Distant 4th like Liz.

"No, the country comes first!"

HYUFD

You may do OGH, but in today's ST poll both Kendall and Cooper have a lower net rating in terms of making voters likely to vote Labour than Burnham and Corbyn, Cooper is particularly low

Pulpstar

SeanT said:

The odds against Corbyn now look generous to me.

I'd put his odds right now at 3/2, or even 6/5. He has all the momentum and coverage. Skybet are offering 3/1

Burnham is overpriced at evens.

Yep !

foxinsoxuk

I see Mike (like me) is a £3 voter ;-)

The_Apocalypse

David_Evershed said:

HurstLlama said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

oxfordsimon said:

runnymede said:

The minute you try to espouse a position they don't like they accuse you of flaunting your 'privilege' and of being offensive and thus liable to be placed on a no-platform list.

But that sounds a lot like 40 years ago

I am clearly too young to remember such things (being only 4 at the time) - but the whole ridiculously overblown notion of 'privilege' and the 'no-platforming' movement seems to have gained huge traction on campuses in the past 5 years.

Quite scary how conformist and illiberal so many current students are.

Just out of interest, what percentage of students are engaged in politics these days?

From my personal experience, very few these days. There is a very very very small minority of students who are, but the rest are far too busy heads down working hard on their studies (and often a part time job) and also staying out of trouble...these days unless you are very bright getting an internship and a place on a graduate schemes is very competitive and the last thing you want is a massive black mark that says "trouble maker".

The percentage of students voting in NUS / student body elected positions elections is often incredibly small.

My very limited personal experience corresponds with that. My son is reading engineering and his gripes are about the laziness of his lecturers and he has nothing to say about the NUS, which just does not seem to form any part of his life at all (not even a cheap bar).

At university in the 1960s it was the sociologist students who organised the sit-ins and the NUS protests. They only had seven lectures a week whereas those of us doing engineering were all day in lectures or practicals taking the equivalent of eight 'A' levels which you had to pass or be sent down. (Is it the same today?)

However, it paid off in the long term as many engineering students have been employed as bankers on salaries that sociologists can only dream of.

I suppose it depends if you want to be banker. I wouldn't want to go into that profession for no money. I guess it also depends whether you prioritise earning 6 figure salaries that much. I want to earn a decent wage in life, but I - and I suspect those sociology students too - aren't going to cry if we don't get millions in the bank.

taffys

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-leadership-election-ed-milibands-era-of-magical-fabulism-is-over-10416096.html

Its all Ed's fault, apparently.

foxinsoxuk

The_Apocalypse said:

David_Evershed said:

HurstLlama said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

oxfordsimon said:

runnymede said:

The minute you try to espouse a position they don't like they accuse you of flaunting your 'privilege' and of being offensive and thus liable to be placed on a no-platform list.

But that sounds a lot like 40 years ago

I am clearly too young to remember such things (being only 4 at the time) - but the whole ridiculously overblown notion of 'privilege' and the 'no-platforming' movement seems to have gained huge traction on campuses in the past 5 years.

Quite scary how conformist and illiberal so many current students are.

Just out of interest, what percentage of students are engaged in politics these days?

From my personal experience, very few these days. There is a very very very small minority of students who are, but the rest are far too busy heads down working hard on their studies (and often a part time job) and also staying out of trouble...these days unless you are very bright getting an internship and a place on a graduate schemes is very competitive and the last thing you want is a massive black mark that says "trouble maker".

The percentage of students voting in NUS / student body elected positions elections is often incredibly small.

My very limited personal experience corresponds with that. My son is reading engineering and his gripes are about the laziness of his lecturers and he has nothing to say about the NUS, which just does not seem to form any part of his life at all (not even a cheap bar).

At university in the 1960s it was the sociologist students who organised the sit-ins and the NUS protests. They only had seven lectures a week whereas those of us doing engineering were all day in lectures or practicals taking the equivalent of eight 'A' levels which you had to pass or be sent down. (Is it the same today?)

However, it paid off in the long term as many engineering students have been employed as bankers on salaries that sociologists can only dream of.

I suppose it depends if you want to be banker. I wouldn't want to go into that profession for no money. I guess it also depends whether you prioritise earning 6 figure salaries that much. I want to earn a decent wage in life, but I - and I suspect those sociology students too - aren't going to cry if we don't get millions in the bank.

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

David_Evershed

foxinsoxuk said:

I see Mike (like me) is a £3 voter ;-)

Presumably both voting for Cooper not Corbyn?

Who thought you would be so much for women's rights?

DecrepitJohnL

SeanT said:

The odds against Corbyn now look generous to me.

I'd put his odds right now at 3/2, or even 6/5. He has all the momentum and coverage. Skybet are offering 3/1

Burnham is overpriced at evens.

You think it is more than 95 per cent certain the next leader will be either Burnham or Corbyn? That is what those odds imply.

Pulpstar

CornishBlue said:

Burnham becoming the collective anti-Corbyn vote?

Nah he's always been round about evens.

Pulpstar

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

Burnham is overpriced at evens.

You think it is more than 95 per cent certain the next leader will be either Burnham or Corbyn? That is what those odds imply.

Nope.

The_Apocalypse

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

David_Evershed

The_Apocalypse said:

David_Evershed said:

HurstLlama said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

oxfordsimon said:

runnymede said:

The minute you try to espouse a position they don't like they accuse you of flaunting your 'privilege' and of being offensive and thus liable to be placed on a no-platform list.

But that sounds a lot like 40 years ago

I am clearly too young to remember such things (being only 4 at the time) - but the whole ridiculously overblown notion of 'privilege' and the 'no-platforming' movement seems to have gained huge traction on campuses in the past 5 years.

Quite scary how conformist and illiberal so many current students are.

Just out of interest, what percentage of students are engaged in politics these days?

From my personal experience, very few these days. There is a very very very small minority of students who are, but the rest are far too busy heads down working hard on their studies (and often a part time job) and also staying out of trouble...these days unless you are very bright getting an internship and a place on a graduate schemes is very competitive and the last thing you want is a massive black mark that says "trouble maker".

The percentage of students voting in NUS / student body elected positions elections is often incredibly small.

My very limited personal experience corresponds with that. My son is reading engineering and his gripes are about the laziness of his lecturers and he has nothing to say about the NUS, which just does not seem to form any part of his life at all (not even a cheap bar).

At university in the 1960s it was the sociologist students who organised the sit-ins and the NUS protests. They only had seven lectures a week whereas those of us doing engineering were all day in lectures or practicals taking the equivalent of eight 'A' levels which you had to pass or be sent down. (Is it the same today?)

However, it paid off in the long term as many engineering students have been employed as bankers on salaries that sociologists can only dream of.

I suppose it depends if you want to be banker. I wouldn't want to go into that profession for no money. I guess it also depends whether you prioritise earning 6 figure salaries that much. I want to earn a decent wage in life, but I - and I suspect those sociology students too - aren't going to cry if we don't get millions in the bank.

Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.

David_Evershed

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Sunil. Do you judge everyone on their parents rather than on who they are?

DecrepitJohnL

FPT -- BBC and Lord Sewel. Although he is indeed described as a crossbench peer, and it is not stated who appointed him, the BBC also notes, "Lord Sewel served as a minister in the Scotland office under Tony Blair's Labour government" -- surely not too hard a code to crack?

The_Apocalypse

David_Evershed said:

Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.

It's becoming increasingly unlikely for most people of my generation to be home-owners in general, tbh. On banks, again it depends on whether that's what you want to do. Banking is not a profession I could ever be happy doing.

The_Apocalypse

DecrepitJohnL said:

FPT -- BBC and Lord Sewel. Although he is indeed described as a crossbench peer, and it is not stated who appointed him, the BBC also notes, "Lord Sewel served as a minister in the Scotland office under Tony Blair's Labour government" -- surely not too hard a code to crack?

I couldn't believe that Sewel story. Jesus.

HYUFD

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house owner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Pong

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

The_Apocalypse

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

FrancisUrquhart

DecrepitJohnL said:

FPT -- BBC and Lord Sewel. Although he is indeed described as a crossbench peer, and it is not stated who appointed him, the BBC also notes, "Lord Sewel served as a minister in the Scotland office under Tony Blair's Labour government" -- surely not too hard a code to crack?

That was added at a later edit...Reports on R5 throughout the morning also failed to make any mention of his party political background.

foxinsoxuk

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. From seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

oxfordsimon

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. Form seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

A friend of mine has just posted on Facebook that Corbyn is the only one who might make him vote Labour for the first time. He was a UKIP/Tory waverer in May....

HYUFD

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

In terms of owning a home yes (or at least until you inherit the nest egg your parents have benefited from)

Sunil_Prasannan

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Sunil. Do you judge everyone on their parents rather than on who they are?

I see humour isn't your strong point!

runnymede

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Flightpathl

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

FrancisUrquhart

What a Grand Prix.

SimonStClare

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a Grand Prix.

Err, Burnham or Corbyn ?

Casino_Royale

oxfordsimon said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. Form seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

A friend of mine has just posted on Facebook that Corbyn is the only one who might make him vote Labour for the first time. He was a UKIP/Tory waverer in May....

What I can't work out is how much of Corbynism is simply a social media and activist head of steam, a Corbyngasm if you will, and how much of it is an actual genuine groundswell and genuine shift in opinion that will translate into actual votes.

Yes, he could win on a surge of mass enthusiasm and populism, and win the leadership. But it could be (yet again) another example of those who shout the loudest in the media and online setting the narrative, blowing up out of disproportion any evidence they have, and talking big and voting differently or not at all.

There are more examples of the latter than the former. Just as with the Cleggasm and "the days the polls turned".

The only difference this time is that the electorate is the Labour party, and its supporters, and I don't know how sane they are.

The_Apocalypse

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

RodCrosby

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

HYUFD

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

Though of the top 100 Labour targets, while 85 are held by the Tories, 9 are held by the SNP (plus their 101st target)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/

If Labour could win say 80 seats, they may also be able to do a deal with the LDs if Farron were to win 20 seats

edmundintokyo

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

foxinsoxuk

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

dr_spyn

Infiltration, what infiltration.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-07-26/calls-for-labour-leadership-contest-to-be-halted-not-helpful/

Burnham tries to be Nelsonian.

No wonder Labour tried to crown Brown, they can't organise a leadership contest without making fools of themselves. I haven't yet paid the £3 to join to vote for Jezza, but I am so, so, so tempted to sign up.

kle4

Part of me wonders if political leaders being a bit younger actually contributes to older politicians being more popular among young people. Mere speculation and anecdote of course, but it feels sometimes to be popular among the young one is either from an outsider party or an old firebrand. Maybe leaders being mum and dad aged is off putting to younger people, who want more of a grand parent vibe.

Probably nonsense, but either way, it is nonsense that you need younger politicians to engage with the young - and that if they get in young, it means the leaders are bound to eventually be the no outside experience typed people claim to hate.

Sunil_Prasannan

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Sunil. Do you judge everyone on their parents rather than on who they are?

"It's not who you are underneath, it's what you do that defines you."

The_Apocalypse

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

Exactly. Thatcher's expansion of the middle classes with right to buy meant that people had a vested interest in voting Conservative. Osborne's tax system changes down the line will not solidify his 'everyone is a Tory dream' unless the dream of homeownership and a middle class lifestyle - i.e. working paying - is still alive. What is odd is that although Thatcher implemented Right to Buy the decline in housing began under her and continued under Major, Blair, and Brown.

I'd be shocked if young people actually did vote in large numbers, but it would be nice to just scare Conservatives.

Sunil_Prasannan

oxfordsimon said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. Form seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

A friend of mine has just posted on Facebook that Corbyn is the only one who might make him vote Labour for the first time. He was a UKIP/Tory waverer in May....

Well, I might stick with Labour if Corbyn wins. If any of the three muppets win, I may go back to the Tories.

RodCrosby

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Fantastic race. Post-race may be delayed as I normally write just from memory but I might have to check up on the details for this one, given how much happened.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

One Tory perhaps. I'm not convinced any party truly cares. The votes are with older people, and the Tories have the best pitch to them at present, but if labour cared about young people why we're so many issues affecting young people seemingly unresolved?

rullko

edmundintokyo said:

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

I'm surprised Corbyn's lot haven't really been making this case. It's the obvious rebuttal to the argument about electability, which is the only game the other three seem to know how to play.

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

I'm not sure how much we can trust this but according to Ipsos Mori turnout among 18 to 24 year olds was 43%. Just thinking about the age bracket for the 2020 election, they are currently aged 13 to 19. I was 14 at the time of the 2001 election and I reckon that I was just about the only one of my group of friends who was thinking about the prospect of voting in 2005. For that group of youngsters, elections are a very long way from their minds right now.

On housing, you're right. It's the dark cloud on the horizon for the Tories and the cutting of tax relief for buy to let landlords was a step in the right direction. I'm not an economist, but surely some of the pressure will be relieved when the baby boomers start to snuff it?

Morris_Dancer

Post-race quote from Arrivabene (Ferrari boss):

I like angry pizza.

The_Apocalypse

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

One Tory perhaps. I'm not convinced any party truly cares. The votes are with older people, and the Tories have the best pitch to them at present, but if labour cared about young people why we're so many issues affecting young people seemingly unresolved?

I don't get the feeling that the Labour establishment care much about young people no - but I've met Labour members and some activists, and I get the feeling those people care about the young.

Haven't the old always voted Tory? Really, the swing voters still decide elections.

EDIT: What I find most amusing is Tories who have a contempt for young people with kids of their own....

HYUFD

RodCrosby said:

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

To win it actually needs to do both ie win at least 80-85 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and at least 10 from the SNP in Scotland, if it does the former but not the latter it may have a chance of a deal with the LDs if Farron wins back some seats from the Tories too

Theuniondivvie

Pong said:

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Or probably more pertinently, Mhairi Black.

A slightly over-effusive profile on R4 this am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06385hy

RodCrosby

HYUFD said:

RodCrosby said:

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

To win it actually needs to do both ie win at least 80-85 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and at least 10 from the SNP in Scotland, if it does the former but not the latter it may have a chance of a deal with the LDs if Farron wins back some seats from the Tories too

Trying to do both will probably result in failure of both...

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'n

E

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

One

Haven't the old always voted Tory? Really, the swing voters still decide elections.
..

I'm sure they have, but not in the present numbers I suspect. Labour need to blunt that advantage if they want to win

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh

T

O

I don't get the feeling that the Labour establishment care much about young people no - but I've met Labour members and some activists, and I get the feeling those people care about the young.

I know quite a few local politicians, and you'll find those people on all sides (I don't actually know any particularly focused on the young Labour politicians, but that's presumably as there are so few Labour politicians round here). Whether proportionally there are more in Labour activist and support bases than others, I imagine is hard to determine. I have no problem believing they target the young more, as shown by more support among the young, but at the end of the day, it's the establishment types who decide things, so I don't care whether either party cares about the young, so long as they sort out some of the issues, even if by accident if for other reasons.

rcs1000

There's a man in Westmoreland doing a jig right now.

FrancisUrquhart

LOL...just seen that Baron Sewel paid for the hookers by cheque.

rullko

RodCrosby said:

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

Yes, at least Corbyn and Kendall have some idea of how to recover voters who went elsewhere, or didn't vote, in May. Burnham and Cooper's plan to do this seems to consist of having a less weird voice than Ed.

HYUFD

RodCrosby said:

HYUFD said:

RodCrosby said:

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

To win it actually needs to do both ie win at least 80-85 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and at least 10 from the SNP in Scotland, if it does the former but not the latter it may have a chance of a deal with the LDs if Farron wins back some seats from the Tories too

Trying to do both will probably result in failure of both...

Not necessarily, although it should certainly focus on England and Wales and winning back Tories it is not impossible Labour could win back 10 seats from the SNP too (Labour do not need to win back even half the seats they lost to the SNP). Corbyn would be the only candidate who could really eat into the SNP total in the central belt, but he would likely turn off England and Wales

The_Apocalypse

kle4 said:

I know quite a few local politicians, and you'll find those people on all sides (I don't actually know any particularly focused on the young Labour politicians, but that's presumably as there are so few Labour politicians round here). Whether proportionally there are more in Labour activist and support bases than others, I imagine is hard to determine. I have no problem believing they target the young more, as shown by more support among the young, but at the end of the day, it's the establishment types who decide things, so I don't care whether either party cares about the young, so long as they sort out some of the issues, even if by accident if for other reasons.

Maybe in the LDs, and the Greens - but I doubt they exist that much within the Conservative Party. When you say 'sort out some of the issues' do you mean issues in general or/including issues that affect young people?

HYUFD

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

One Tory perhaps. I'm not convinced any party truly cares. The votes are with older people, and the Tories have the best pitch to them at present, but if labour cared about young people why we're so many issues affecting young people seemingly unresolved?

I don't get the feeling that the Labour establishment care much about young people no - but I've met Labour members and some activists, and I get the feeling those people care about the young.

Haven't the old always voted Tory? Really, the swing voters still decide elections.

EDIT: What I find most amusing is Tories who have a contempt for young people with kids of their own....

Indeed, the swing voters are those aged between about 30-60, the under 30s vote Labour/Green if they vote, the over 60s Tory/UKIP

The_Apocalypse

It's a bit sad for Sewel that he had pay for women to have sex with him, tbh.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, not my field of expertise, but surely you'd pay in cash?

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, not my field of expertise, but surely you'd pay in cash?

You would think so, especially given he is married and erhh well his political position. And he wasn't exactly hiring shall we say high end ladies of the night, £200 was the amount on the cheque, so not exactly out of the question to have that cash on you.

Plato

He's going for the one-eye/one-arm voter?

dr_spyn said:

Infiltration, what infiltration.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-07-26/calls-for-labour-leadership-contest-to-be-halted-not-helpful/

Burnham tries to be Nelsonian.

No wonder Labour tried to crown Brown, they can't organise a leadership contest without making fools of themselves. I haven't yet paid the £3 to join to vote for Jezza, but I am so, so, so tempted to sign up.

CornishBlue

dr_spyn said:

Infiltration, what infiltration.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-07-26/calls-for-labour-leadership-contest-to-be-halted-not-helpful/

Burnham tries to be Nelsonian.

No wonder Labour tried to crown Brown, they can't organise a leadership contest without making fools of themselves. I haven't yet paid the £3 to join to vote for Jezza, but I am so, so, so tempted to sign up.

£3 is less than the current price of a pint of beer in most British pubs. I'm foregoing a pint this week. I also have some money on an "insurance bet" which means that I'll get my £3 back if Corbyn does't win.

It's sneaky but frankly Labour are the stupid ones in deciding their leadership this way... and they deserve all the contempt possible.

A Corbyn win won't destroy the Labour party - it might even empower and embolden the left-wing element of it and gain voters in some quarters - but it will smack all the present bunch of careerist unprincipled Labour parliamentarians down (the likes of Burnham and Cooper). The fact that process has been (unintentionally) left to Tories and the hard Left to get underway (and it's something that is necessary for both the Labour party and British politics) rather than Labour MPs perhaps tells us what a kick up the proverbial the Labour party needs right now.

Casino_Royale

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

This is why Labour should strongly support EVEL. Unfortunately, they are so demented and blinded by their tribal dislike of the Tories, they can't see it.

Casino_Royale

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

Absolutely spot on. The biggest long-term threat to the Tories is the unaffordability of housing. It turns people left-wing.

The Tories need to start a mass homebuilding programme now. And lots of them.

CornishBlue

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

Absolutely spot on. The biggest long-term threat to the Tories is the unaffordability of housing. It turns people left-wing.

The Tories need to start a mass homebuilding programme now. And lots of them.

Agreed. Though of course the problem is a long-term (and on-going) combination of low house building volumes AND high net immigration.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

I know quite a few local politicians, and you'll find those people on all sides (I don't actually know any particularly focused on the young Labour politicians, but that's presumably as there are so few Labour politicians round here). Whether proportionally there are more in Labour activist and support bases than others, I imagine is hard to determine. I have no problem believing they target the young more, as shown by more support among the young, but at the end of the day, it's the establishment types who decide things, so I don't care whether either party cares about the young, so long as they sort out some of the issues, even if by accident if for other reasons.

Maybe in the LDs, and the Greens - but I doubt they exist that much within the Conservative Party. When you say 'sort out some of the issues' do you mean issues in general or/including issues that affect young people?

That affect young people, although really I must be an optimist as I'd hope some sorting out could be arranged that would resolve issues for all peoples.

And do Greens actually care about young people? I don't know any, but their hilarious 'imagine' scenarios in their manifesto aside promising a land of milk and honey for all if only we stopped caring about economic growth aside, they seem more interested in radical social engineering than policies to help young people.

As for the Tories, it's hard to judge of course, but I live in a place that will probably always be Tory controlled, and some do care about young people issues. Does it matter how many, so long as enough do? Possibly, but I am unsure.

A good afternoon to all.

Plato

Apart from a single PBer, who are these Tories?

I don't know any like that.

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

One Tory perhaps. I'm not convinced any party truly cares. The votes are with older people, and the Tories have the best pitch to them at present, but if labour cared about young people why we're so many issues affecting young people seemingly unresolved?

I don't get the feeling that the Labour establishment care much about young people no - but I've met Labour members and some activists, and I get the feeling those people care about the young.

Haven't the old always voted Tory? Really, the swing voters still decide elections.

EDIT: What I find most amusing is Tories who have a contempt for young people with kids of their own....

MattW

FrancisUrquhart said:

LOL...just seen that Baron Sewel paid for the hookers by cheque.

And snorting drugs through a £5 note.

A £5 note - the cheapskate.

foxinsoxuk

HYUFD said:

RodCrosby said:

HYUFD said:

RodCrosby said:

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

runnymede said:

Labour set to elect either a joke or a wingnut. The good news has just kept coming since May...

Whoever wins, they're between a rock and a hard place.

If they don't look like making 100 gains in 2020, the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the UK dog will do for them again, just like in 2015...

I suppose this is an argument for Corbyn: There's no point annoying the base and losing the left to the Greens or whoever if the centrists aren't going to vote for you because they thing the SNP would make them do left-wing things anyway.

Yes, the choice is between extreme wings.

Either Left enough to kill the SNP, or Right enough to sweep England without the need for Scotland.

While keeping the party together, whichever wins...

To win it actually needs to do both ie win at least 80-85 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and at least 10 from the SNP in Scotland, if it does the former but not the latter it may have a chance of a deal with the LDs if Farron wins back some seats from the Tories too

Trying to do both will probably result in failure of both...

Not necessarily, although it should certainly focus on England and Wales and winning back Tories it is not impossible Labour could win back 10 seats from the SNP too (Labour do not need to win back even half the seats they lost to the SNP). Corbyn would be the only candidate who could really eat into the SNP total in the central belt, but he would likely turn off England and Wales

Corbyn may well be audacious enough to have a formal electoral pact with the SNP. Devo max but strong representation at Westminster.

Plato

Isn't it marvellously quaint?

A cheque.

FrancisUrquhart said:

LOL...just seen that Baron Sewel paid for the hookers by cheque.

Casino_Royale

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Or probably more pertinently, Mhairi Black.

A slightly over-effusive profile on R4 this am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06385hy

She is very smart, lucid and has far more confidence than I ever did at 20 years old.

However, she can sound overly earnest, and, at times, come across as hectoring. Her delivery is also flat, monotonous and full of glottal stops.

She also looks about 15 years older than she is. If I were close to her, I would worry about her long-term health and diet.

Casino_Royale

Sunil_Prasannan said:

oxfordsimon said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. Form seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

A friend of mine has just posted on Facebook that Corbyn is the only one who might make him vote Labour for the first time. He was a UKIP/Tory waverer in May....

Well, I might stick with Labour if Corbyn wins. If any of the three muppets win, I may go back to the Tories.

I don't follow your logic? (if you're serious)

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, at least he didn't pay by postal order.

CornishBlue

Casino_Royale said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

oxfordsimon said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My med school union was pretty apolitical, but Fox jr is doing a social science degree and his union is fairly political. Mostly on green, internationalist, feminist and LBGT issues though rather than party political. He likes Corbyn.

I'm not surprised - I get the feeling that's where student politics is at. Very few are wedged to a political party these days, although Greens tend to be quite vocal. Some of that would describe my politics - I'm pretty big on feminist and LBGT issues.

Interesting to hear your son likes Corbyn. I think among young people he's quite popular. I was talking to a friend on Friday, she's much more left-wing than I am, and she loves Corbyn (and actually thinks he can win an election).

I think Corbyn could get a lot more youngsters engaged in politics. He may recapture a lot of the Green vote and some of the CBAs.

Fox jr is more interested in the internationalist agenda. Form seeing Corbyn on Marr this morning I think Corbyn will be on the BOI side. He wants Europe to have more of a say in the social protection issues. Will not sit with the kippers. His young acolytes are pro EU too.

A friend of mine has just posted on Facebook that Corbyn is the only one who might make him vote Labour for the first time. He was a UKIP/Tory waverer in May....

Well, I might stick with Labour if Corbyn wins. If any of the three muppets win, I may go back to the Tories.

I don't follow your logic? (if you're serious)

A desire to vote for principled politicians (be they left or right in opinions)..? I can sympathise with that actually.

volcanopete

A male leader and deputy leader in an election that rejected all BaME candidates is not the place Labour want to be to be as a progressive force of the 21st century.The election will have proved the opposite.

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Or probably more pertinently, Mhairi Black.

A slightly over-effusive profile on R4 this am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06385hy

She is very smart, lucid and has far more confidence than I ever did at 20 years old.

However, she can sound overly earnest, and, at times, come across as hectoring. Her delivery is also flat, monotonous and full of glottal stops.

She also looks about 15 years older than she is. If I were close to her, I would worry about her long-term health and diet.

I think criticising a 20 year old MP for sounding 'overly earnest' is a rather ridiculous complaint. If an MP can't be earnest at 20 what hope is there for the rest of the old lags?

Casino_Royale

CornishBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Flightpathl said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

'Without wealthy parents, you are unlikely to be able to become a house owner in the South East on the salary of a sociologist. Most people who work in banks don't earn millions but with hard work and promotion they can aspire to their own home.'

On an average salary you are unlikely to become a house earner in the South East without wealthy parents, or unless you marry someone on an above average salary. Hence the rise in the number of under 40s renting, which will be over 50% across the UK by 2025 and more in London

Exactly. For much of my generation, the dream of a better prospects than our parents in pretty dead in the water. It's made even worse by the fact this government doesn't appear to like young people that much.

Oh dear - my heart bleeds. What a pity that Blair/Brown/Labour ruined Britain and its economy for you.

That false sarcasm is lame, although given you're Tory, the fact the home ownership dream dying surely ought to concern you.

Pretty much confirms what I've always suspect though - Tories don't give a sh*t about young people in this country.

If young people start voting Corbyn then they might!

The Tories adapted to the universal suffrage by Baldwin and Chamberlain making mass homeownership a possibility, MacMillan built houses on a massive scale and even Mrs T realised that increasing homeownership to the masses was the way to turn them into Tories.

The decline in homeownership is something that the Tories need to address or those with little to lose will vote Corbyn.

Absolutely spot on. The biggest long-term threat to the Tories is the unaffordability of housing. It turns people left-wing.

The Tories need to start a mass homebuilding programme now. And lots of them.

Agreed. Though of course the problem is a long-term (and on-going) combination of low house building volumes AND high net immigration.

Absolutely. But high net immigration seems to be something that no government is capable of getting a handle on.

The biggest loopholes to me seem to be (a) family immigration off the back of commonwealth immigrants (b) "students" not returning home and (c) EU direct and indirect immigration (those originating from 3rd world countries obtaining EU citizenship elsewhere, and using that to obtain entry into the UK) and (d) deportation and repatriation being ineffective tools in removing those illegally here

I don't doubt current net immigration is 20,000-30,000 per year lower than it would be if Labour were still in power. But that's just not good enough.

MP_SE

FrancisUrquhart said:

LOL...just seen that Baron Sewel paid for the hookers by cheque.

The Mail reckons he was paying £200 a night. They must be real dirtbags at those prices.

Plato

Or Luncheon Vouchers... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynthia_Payne

Payne first came to national attention in 1978 when police raided her home and found a sex party was in progress. Elderly men paid in "Luncheon Vouchers" to dress up in lingerie and be spanked by young women.[3] When the case came to trial in 1980, she was sentenced to eighteen months in prison, reduced to a fine and six months on appeal.[4] She served four months in Holloway prison.[3]

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, at least he didn't pay by postal order.

Casino_Royale

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Or probably more pertinently, Mhairi Black.

A slightly over-effusive profile on R4 this am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06385hy

She is very smart, lucid and has far more confidence than I ever did at 20 years old.

However, she can sound overly earnest, and, at times, come across as hectoring. Her delivery is also flat, monotonous and full of glottal stops.

She also looks about 15 years older than she is. If I were close to her, I would worry about her long-term health and diet.

I think criticising a 20 year old MP for sounding 'overly earnest' is a rather ridiculous complaint. If an MP can't be earnest at 20 what hope is there for the rest of the old lags?

I don't trust anyone at any age with such fervent belief in their own opinions that it's devoid of any subtext, reflection or humour. In fact, I never trust anyone without a sense of humour.

Shami Chakrabarti is another one I feel the same way about, despite having strong sympathies most of the time with what she's saying.

Plato

I forgot about this bit - brilliant

On this programme, she expressed an interest in becoming an MP (Member of Parliament), in order to change Britain's sex laws, which she followed through by standing for Parliament as a candidate for the Payne and Pleasure Party in the Kensington by-election in July 1988, followed by her standing in her own area of Streatham for the Rainbow Dream Ticket in the 1992 UK General Election. She did not gain a parliamentary seat.

Plato said:

Or Luncheon Vouchers... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynthia_Payne

Payne first came to national attention in 1978 when police raided her home and found a sex party was in progress. Elderly men paid in "Luncheon Vouchers" to dress up in lingerie and be spanked by young women.[3] When the case came to trial in 1980, she was sentenced to eighteen months in prison, reduced to a fine and six months on appeal.[4] She served four months in Holloway prison.[3]

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, at least he didn't pay by postal order.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, I agree entirely. A sense of humour, as well as being good in and of itself, helps to enable people to see things from the other side (because it involves taking the piss and mocking the serious).

dr_spyn

volcanopete said:

A male leader and deputy leader in an election that rejected all BaME candidates is not the place Labour want to be to be as a progressive force of the 21st century.The election will have proved the opposite.

But some of the above may have been NBG. The depressing thing for Labour is that the farce goes on for another 6 1/2 weeks and they may get a leader elected by the votes of its political enemies.

Sunil_Prasannan

volcanopete said:

A male leader and deputy leader in an election that rejected all BaME candidates is not the place Labour want to be to be as a progressive force of the 21st century.The election will have proved the opposite.

Personally, I would never vote for an ethnic candidate just because they are an ethnic candidate.

The_Apocalypse

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

I know quite a few local politicians, and you'll find those people on all sides (I don't actually know any particularly focused on the young Labour politicians, but that's presumably as there are so few Labour politicians round here). Whether proportionally there are more in Labour activist and support bases than others, I imagine is hard to determine. I have no problem believing they target the young more, as shown by more support among the young, but at the end of the day, it's the establishment types who decide things, so I don't care whether either party cares about the young, so long as they sort out some of the issues, even if by accident if for other reasons.

Maybe in the LDs, and the Greens - but I doubt they exist that much within the Conservative Party. When you say 'sort out some of the issues' do you mean issues in general or/including issues that affect young people?

That affect young people, although really I must be an optimist as I'd hope some sorting out could be arranged that would resolve issues for all peoples.

And do Greens actually care about young people? I don't know any, but their hilarious 'imagine' scenarios in their manifesto aside promising a land of milk and honey for all if only we stopped caring about economic growth aside, they seem more interested in radical social engineering than policies to help young people.

As for the Tories, it's hard to judge of course, but I live in a place that will probably always be Tory controlled, and some do care about young people issues. Does it matter how many, so long as enough do? Possibly, but I am unsure.

A good afternoon to all.

You definitely are an optimist!

I think the Greens imagine that in the radical social engineering, they'd help young people (although it probably wouldn't!)

I guess it matters how much in sensing whether they are anomalies or not.

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Pity Nicola Sturgeon didn't join labour all those years ago.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn is the only one who can provide a real Labour alternative to the Tory posh-boy Cameron!

Or probably more pertinently, Mhairi Black.

A slightly over-effusive profile on R4 this am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06385hy

She is very smart, lucid and has far more confidence than I ever did at 20 years old.

However, she can sound overly earnest, and, at times, come across as hectoring. Her delivery is also flat, monotonous and full of glottal stops.

She also looks about 15 years older than she is. If I were close to her, I would worry about her long-term health and diet.

I think criticising a 20 year old MP for sounding 'overly earnest' is a rather ridiculous complaint. If an MP can't be earnest at 20 what hope is there for the rest of the old lags?

I don't trust anyone at any age with such fervent belief in their own opinions that it's devoid of any subtext, reflection or humour. In fact, I never trust anyone without a sense of humour.

Shami Chakrabarti is another one I feel the same way about, despite having strong sympathies most of the time with what she's saying.

Opinions should be subject to change. Principles shouldn't be. It doesn't worry me when someone is mistaken, as long as they're mistaken for the right reasons.

The_Apocalypse

Plato said:

Apart from a single PBer, who are these Tories?

I don't know any like that.

Well, the government for a start. But I'm glad that both you and @kle4 know of at least some Tories who do care about young people in this country.

Theuniondivvie

Casino_Royale said:

Her delivery is also flat, monotonous and full of glottal stops.

You think she should change her accent?

FrankBooth

I see no-one is thinking of the obvious. This Tory entryism into Labour to sabotage the election will surely see lots of Labour supporters return the favour when the Tory leadership election comes along. Although being a less democratic party there's only the choice of two candidates.

It's strange. I don't seem to remember in 2001 Labour people signing up to the Tories to get IDS elected leader. And yet it's the left that is accused of being juvenile and needing to grow up.

Richard_Nabavi

The_Apocalypse said:

Well, the government for a start. But I'm glad that both you and @kle4 know of at least some Tories who do care about young people in this country.

You are being totally idiotic.

Do you actually know any Conservatives? Or, failing that, have you read, for example, any speech by Michael Gove on education? Are you really so ludicrously blinded by partisan prejudice that you can, with a straight face, claim that he doesn't care about young people?

AndyJS

Maybe it's time to get rid of the House of Lords if today's allegations turn out to be true.

Moses_

Sometimes you just can't make it up. Consequences of all those "savage cuts"


The wannabe glamour model from Leeds who claimed a £4,800 boob job on the NHS - is selling her body for sex after admitting cuts to her benefits means she can't afford VIP lifestyle.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3174922/NHS-boob-job-scrounger-Josie-Cunningham-says-game-George-Osborne-slashed-benefits.html

RodCrosby

I love the quote in the Sunday Times leader, regarding the torrent of new sign-ups for the Labour election:-

"the hard-left, apparently as extinct for its influence on British politics as the dinosaurs, senses its Jurassic Park moment..."

CD13

Ms Plato,

You've missed out Cynthia Payne's most famous quotation ... "The trouble with men is that for a woman to have a civilised conversation with them they need despunking first."

A bit unfair really. But I suspect it's true for the men she met in a professional capacity.

The_Apocalypse

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Well, the government for a start. But I'm glad that both you and @kle4 know of at least some Tories who do care about young people in this country.

You are being totally idiotic.

Do you actually know any Conservatives? Or, failing that, have you read, for example, any speech by Michael Gove on education? Are you really so ludicrously blinded by partisan prejudice that you can, with a straight face, claim that he doesn't care about young people?

BIB: Yes.

Michael Gove is just an idealogue, tbh. For all this 'he cares about young people' there are more young people than not who disagree with his reforms.

Moses_

I think Mr Pollard reads PB

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3174754/Jeremy-Corbyn-leader-Tom-Watson-deputy-make-Labour-Tom-Jerry-party-writes-political-biographer-STEPHEN-POLLARD.html

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

Sometimes you just can't make it up. Consequences of all those "savage cuts"


The wannabe glamour model from Leeds who claimed a £4,800 boob job on the NHS - is selling her body for sex after admitting cuts to her benefits means she can't afford VIP lifestyle.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3174922/NHS-boob-job-scrounger-Josie-Cunningham-says-game-George-Osborne-slashed-benefits.html

There is apparently work avaliable in the House of Lords!