politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At some stage the Hillary Clinton email row is going to impact on the nomination betting
For those who’ve not been following the WH2016 race some of the shine is coming off Hillary’s nomination chances because of the email row.
Read the full story here
Comments
The NY Times also said that in the original article and then corrected it.
There is currently no request for a criminal investigation.
But the fact that out of 40 emails checked, 4 were found to contain classified information when written, means that it might not be far away if anything like that ratio holds up.
The DOJ was so politicized by Holder that they are unlikely to investigate Hillary anything short of proof she is the devil incarnate.
Finally, Hillary has been in a very exposed political position for almost a quarter of a century now. There's pretty much no US politician, or at least nobody who's never been president, who's been so extensively scrutinized. Despite the best attempts of the American right wing to tarnish her with some scandal, she's still standing and reasonably popular. The likelihood that e-mail gate is going to be the thing that trips her up at this stage is pretty much zero.
If enough evidence comes to light and an investigation is launched - and we are a long way from that currently - it could quite easily destroy her campaign.
For the first time, this is not Republicans on a witch hunt. This is a serious POTENTIAL threat to her campaign.
It's too early to describe Hillary's campaign as 'faltering'.
Her trust and honesty numbers are deep underwater, and her numbers in several swing states are dropping, but she's not in big trouble yet.
That said, it won't be Biden.
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/from-russia-with-cash
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-25/long-delays-on-eurotunnel-due-to-migrant-activity/
http://www.salon.com/2015/07/24/another_shoddy_clinton_smear_anatomy_of_the_new_york_times_epic_email_screw_up/?source=newsletter
On the point of the story though, there's definitely something that doesn't add up about it. Ask any IT guy and they will say that it's pretty much impossible to accidentally lose data such that it can't be recovered. Assuming that Hilary wasn't actually administering her email server herself, the 'loss' of the data not handed over must have been intentional.
It is also improbable that in four years of SoS no-one questioned why she didn't use a .gov email address. Given the record-keeping and FoI requirements of their job, the State Department email servers would probably flag any email sent to a non-.gov address from inside.
Any other gov employee caught with gov communications on their own personal machine would of course be subject to the full 'Manning' treatment. There is a growing feeling among the general population that there is one rule for some and very different rules for Hilary Clinton.
See below link for a discussion on a tech blog polulated by people who work for the US government and admin mail servers professionally.
http://yro.slashdot.org/story/15/07/24/1321252/criminal-inquiry-sought-over-hillary-clintons-personal-email-server
They ought to go easy on Hillary; after all, she's nearly 68 and these techy things are obviously beyond her. And if Jeremy is ever elected PM, he'll be well over 70.
He'll be sticking to pencils and recyclable paper.
Sincerely disappointed since the Labour bloodletting has died down, my day has been immeasurably brightened but by the revelations over Bercow's expenses.
If it puts him back in his box for a while, its a job well done.
Almost by definition, you don't get to directly mail SECRET or TOP SECRET networks .
The US has some equivalents e.g. SIPRNET, JWICS, NIPRNET.
Apologies for the acronym soup .
Mr. Abroad, your gnomophobia belongs in a bygone age. Shame on you, sir, for your unabashed detestation of munchkins!
Clinton's not really seemed impressive.
Bercow is a jumped up little man who thinks he is far more important than he actually is. The fact that he isn't important is of his own making. His antics in the House of Commons are because he doesn't have proper control. He is meant to set an example. His behaviour towards George Osborne at Treasury questions was disgraceful and a perfect example of his lack of charm and control.
No-one spending their own money rents a car and driver for the evening to take them half a mile up the road then wait all night for them - in a city centre full of various types of taxi. How long would it have taken the policeman on the gate to Parliament to flag down a cab for him? Costs a fiver each way if he really couldn't be arsed with the 10 minute walk.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/watch-angry-protesters-chase-scotlands-6130021
It's shocking that Bercow upset Osborne. Purely by coincidence, the Telegraph reports Bercow being attacked over expenses by "George Osborne's deputy" [Greg Hands].
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3173709/The-Scottish-Nasty-Party-strikes-Mob-surrounds-Tory-MP-north-border-opens-food-bank.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pa-e_kzg2s
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/24/owen-jones-douglas-carswell-twitter-picture_n_7862970.html
She's also old. Not Joe Biden old, admittedly, but if selected, she'd be 69 on election day. That is admittedly younger than Reagan, Dole or McCain were but would be three years older than any Democrat nominee in history (Lewis Cass in 1848 in case you're wondering - he lost), and fully eight years older than any Democrat candidate since Truman, or, if you prefer, any non-incumbent Democrat since the 1870s.
From a betting point of view, PBers should probably support Corbyn, in the sense that from what I read many shadow cabinet members have sworn to have him out by Xmas, so we'd get another leadership election to bet on in the new year!
Don't get me wrong, she could well get the Democrat nod, but I'm just not sure. If I were an American, I think I'd prefer someone else, if there's someone else who appeals (of course).
Aerodynamics matter a fair bit so that may advantage Ferrari over Williams.
Spent last night at a gala dinner in the Long Room at Lords in aid of the Shane Warne Foundation. Piers Morgan hosted a panel that was made up of Ian Healy, Glenn McGrath, Merv Hughes, Mark Taylor, Shane Warne, Sir Ian Botham, Darren Gough, Freddie Flintoff and someone else who I can't remember right now.
Geoff Miller was a brilliant after dinner speaker, and the auction was run by Jeffrey Archer!
I guess the SNP rent-a-mob in Dumfries is a distraction from dealing with real issues in Scotland like police call out to road accidents and literacy in schools.
If there's one thing the GE has taught me, anything could happen. I mean I had thousands on a hung parliament, and was topping it up with hundreds more at 1.04/1.05 on Betfair, just hours before the exit poll was released.
Within 2 hours of it being out, I was trading the whole position out to back a Tory majority.
That was within a half-a-day. Hillary has to hold that price for a whole year for it not to be a value trading bet.
"Sorry about the schools, hospitals, Polis an'at, we are too busy dealing with the Zoomers"
Since the regularly scheduled scottish arguments are starting up, I think I'll make like someone confronted/chased by a crowd/mob of heroes/idiots and slink off.
Been casting my eye over the season so far (Hungary's the final race of the first half). Bloody weird. It broadly follows the traditional pattern (rubbish start, gets better later), but I had six consecutive red races to start with. Only the last three have been green. It's an unpleasant feeling to be red for months.
To link it with the 'anything can happen' line, that only really occurs when F1 has dramatic regulation changes. This might be coming sooner than expected due to Mercedes crushing dominance. Then there's the potential for a Brawn blown diffuser situation.
Mr. kle4, you could always stay and enjoy the forthcoming F1 chatter
what a richard. When you have the village idiot supporting you , you know you are not all there on the topic.
Actually, it was fine. I had a fairly green book, just ended up being slimmer. I ended up going from +£700 on hung parliament to +£450 on Tory majority.
Of course, could have made thousands more had I known earlier, or had the confidence to back at the much longer odds in the days before, but that's betting (and life)
Not 'Arthur Donaldson'?
Speaking of yobbo spiv To*y nastiness I see that I'll have to follow my partner's example and sign up for the Labour vote to try to undo a bit of the damage.
http://www.cornwallmodelboats.co.uk/acatalog/graupner-bismark-camo.html
" Mundell also made a short statement, but refused to answer any questions from the press, and point-blank refused requests from photographers to step into the adjoining room where food parcels were being prepared to pose in front of some of the donations already made by generous members of the public. Speaking in front of a spread of sandwiches, biscuits, and quiche, which had been laid on for his arrival, Mundell said: “I believe it is very important to have full, open discussions about issues, and I don’t want to hide away from people’s concerns, and I don’t do that. "
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/watch-angry-protesters-chase-scotlands-6130021