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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Rentoul thinks that private poll was leaked by Liz Kendall
I fear that the story of a private poll that put Corbyn in the lead was a desperate ploy by the Liz Kendall campaign. My view is that Kendall is easily the best candidate, and the only one who has a chance of winning the next election for Labour without relying on the Conservatives to fall apart. But I accept that her campaign, after its flying start, has not gone well.
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Watching England meekly capitulate at Lord's is a fantastic day's entertainment by comparison to this leadership race.
Would you believe it if it were shown to you?
There was for example some polling last year about the elimination of funding for extra rooms in public housing, which was as far at 70/30 in either direction depending on the question asked.
With regard to schools, when asked about the idea of Free Schools, most parents couldn't care either way - but when presented with the option of a new school run by parents or charities vs what was famously called the "Bog-Standard Comprehensive", the Free Schools are unsurprisingly popular!
Labour needs to develop its own attack ad strategy - a Tony Blair would have swept aside the Milliband in Salmond's pocket ad by just saying, in a believable manner, I'm in this to win it not do deals.
You failed to provide any evidence but questioned them anyway.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, some expenses embarassment for Andy Burnham:
http://tinyurl.com/nlmkzgm
Could be finished by tea at this rate.
Edit: They're Stoking the fire now!
I questioned the private-public issue in response to an argument that Kendall was supporting polices espoused by the electorate, as opposed to questioning the issue generally. As for the GE poll proving anything, that's pretty disingenuous. The majority of voters do not even read manifestos, let alone agree with all the polices espoused by political parties. Most voters politics are not cut and dried like that. It's like saying in 2001 most voters didn't want to pound when they voted for Blair - which obviously isn't the case.
Ironically the only one of the four with anything approaching a vision is Mr Corbyn, who is (to someone who hadn't come across him until a month ago) articulate and passionate, even if the ideas themselves seem miles from reality and electability.
That JC, he’s divine
Changes water into wine.
Can anybody beat JC?
Does being 50 quid up, make up for the humiliation? Maybe a little, but nowhere near enough.
Utterly outplayed this time.
Cook deserved a century in the first innings on a personal level, but Ballance, Lyth & Bell were poor in Cardiff too.
Summing wickets and runs; 820-10 plays 415-20, has there ever been a more dominant performance ?
Those who are strongly against are usually those who have some interest greater than a parent. It could be ideological or, they themselves are part of the current system.
Golden opportunity for Farron.
For instance I still don't know what the 2 leading candidates actually propose, they don't talk much so they are a mystery, with only the past negatives like the NHS and Mr.Balls scrubbed on my mind. On the other hand everyone knows what Corbyn's and Kendall's positions are on everything, so everyone knows what trouble the bottom 2 can be.
It's an election of 2 flavours (left-right) and 2 intensities (boring- not boring), with one candidate in every category.
Labour needed a fifth candidate to break the symmetry.
I did say a while ago that Cooper would probably be best for Labour. Hope she doesn't win, though.
We know that, on the whole, local authority managed schools fail to provide a good enough education for the broad range of pupils: they fail to stretch the best; they allow the weakest to fall behind, without the basic literacy or numeracy skills needed; while the average child leaves school unprepared for the increasingly competitive world in which we live.
Free Schools are intended to be a mechanism whereby those closest to the needs of the children - the teachers - can experiment and try new approaches. Some of these will succeed, and some will not. Parents can then exercise choice to decide which schools they prefer.
Where it becomes theory is that parents will choose better schools and, as a result, all schools will adopt those approaches proven to succeed. I believe that this will happen but, to some extent, it is a matter of faith in the power of consumer choice.
So essentially Free Schools replace a system which has proven to be inadequate and unresponsive with a system which should be more responsive and has the potential to be better.
I hope that it works.
That really doesn't play well with the voters. Or indeed with members of his party.
I think democracy is better served, and the Conservatives will have to keep a higher game up if Cooper is made next leader. She's not great but the rest are all worse.
She'll be the best campaigner for them, but identity politics can go to hell.
Dermot Murnaghan made himself look a complete idiot when interviewing Farron this morning. Clearly it is a fair line of questioning and Farron seemed uncomfortable having to answer very specific questions about his faith and views on homosexuality. But Murnaghan then asked Farron what he thought about journalists asking him about his religious views when journalists wouldn't ask a Muslim similar questions.
Now many on here have made this point, but Murnaghan looked a complete idiot and if I was Farron I'd have said "well Dermot, that's a question that you need to answer".
@Charles, I'm not defending the current system, I'm also aware of the intentions behind Free Schools, in regard to giving parents 'choice'. But ultimately, this is a method in which is designed to improve education, and lead to good schools, is it not? In which case, it remains to be seen that Free Schools, through choice and competition have led to good schools, and an improved education system.
No wonder Chilcot is being delayed. Money for old rope !
Telling everyone who might vote for you that, in your eyes, they are all bad people in some way is not exactly a positive message.
Redemption does not come at the hands of Farron.
Don't forget the Labour membership voted overwhelmingly for David Miliband. They want a credible leader. Out of all the candidates Kendell scores as a nil point, Miliband and Cooper as a 4 point, and Corbyn as a 6 point- Corbyn is unelectable of course because of his politics, but Labour will lose too with Burnham and Cooper at the helm.
I'm going for Corbyn and hoping that David Miliband returns to frontline politics. Or Chukka resolves his issues. Failing that if Corbyn leads us to a loss, what the hell, the other candidates would do no better and Liz Kendell would lead us to oblivion.
I don't want to be mean, but Farron comes across as someone with special needs. He was marginally better than Lamb who perhaps was the most boring person you could ever imagine creating.
By walking on the morning of the defeat, Miliband has ruined the Labour Party for a further 5 years (at least)
If he had stuck it out for another couple of months, a more realistic set of candidates may well have emerged.
Cometh the hour cometh the man"
...........not this time I'm afraid
Ms. Apocalypse, could be that Corbyn either works better than expected as leader or Labour finally work out how a coup is done, and you get someone better than any of the current contenders.
In the 2010 general election, politicalbetting.com did a good job of recording the odds immediately prior to the election. But in 2015 this was not the case: so much time was spent on discussing polls that although there were occasional screenshots of SPIN, odds were mostly neglected.
So: can anybody point me to a site that records the odds on or before May 7th? Many sites do individual odds but tracking down the full book for a given bookie is mighty hard
SNP around 47, from memory.
The problem with Cooper/Burnham is that in all likelihood Labour will crawl onto a GE with little hope of success but no courage to get rid of them- a la Ed Miliband.
At least with Corbyn I would have some hope that he could get culled- we have much better potential leaders who could win. David Miliband, Chuka, Alan Johnson- maybe Jarvis, Starmer- even Tristan Hunt. Labour need a Blairite- but not Liz Kendell, please.....
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB
So there is evidence that suggests that Free Schools improving education is a reasonable thesis. Whether that thesis will survive contact with the real world is unproven, although early signs are encouraging.
Mr. Root, I think it ends on 12 September.
So it is going on forever
They are all crap. (so far)
The one upside is that it would be such a disaster that his reign wouldn't last very long; the trauma should be enough to bring the party back to its senses, so that it would look to appoint someone who might feasibly win an election.
I think it's easier for Yvette now that Ed is no longer an MP and, indeed, has now got a job at Harvard.
I think she's starting to get better in the campaign and I agree with TSE that she'll do very well with 2nd preferences and is the best bet.
She has to condemn the failings of past Labour economic teams - and show that her team would do better.
Otherwise she is the continuity-Balls candidate. And always risk being painted as such.
This is a massive election - effectively choosing the person LAB will put up as the alternative PM. It is also the current biggest political betting market.
There will be many more posts on here before the result is announced on September 12th. Get used to it.
@ThomasNashe, I agree that a Corbyn leadership would probably pan out in the way you've outlined - but I don't think the LDs would be the beneficiaries of that, as in the 1980s. Unlike in the 80s, there appears to be a clear resentment among those involved in Labour, towards the LDs that I doubt has diminished. I also don't know how some of Farron's more socially conservative views would go down with Labour supporters either.
Remember Tessa Mills/Jowell's separation from her husband during his Italian money laundering and tax fraud difficulties?
She might be her own woman - but unless she acknowledges that the past Labour treasury teams made mistakes - she will be seen as part of the problem and not a potential solution.
Labour lost because they were not trusted on the economy. She isn't advocating a move away from the Brown/Miliband/Balls way of running the economy.
And she was, of course, Chief Secretary to the Treasury for a short while - and so was intimately involved in all of this.
She has to set out a clear new economic message - otherwise she will be easily portrayed as being for more of the same. And that isn't going to win votes.
I am glad to see the actual car crash was Kendalls performance on DP
The misery-filled offence-taking horde in general and feminazis in particular would fire up the Outrage Bus and there'd be more whining than a jet engine at full revs.
I don't like Gove particularly, but I respect him as genuine talent and intellect.
Ed Balls is one of the most remarkable politicians of our generation. Like Portillo, Ken Clarke, Heseltine, Hague, Gove, Cook- they are few and far between. They'll never become leaders or PMs but they enrich the political landscape of the UK.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Tyson, that post is not absolutely bloody brilliant, if I may say so.
Did Miliband prevent him in some way? In which case, he could be seen as a coward for not forcing the issue.
He is able - but not remarkable.
Never mind being leader, I'm not sure I see why her and the other ultra-Blairites (Chuka, Tristram Hunt) should even be in the shadow cabinet and steering policy, when it's clear the party totally rejects their approach.