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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time Osborne becomes betting favourite for ne

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited July 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time Osborne becomes betting favourite for next CON leader & next PM

Introducing the new betting favourite for next CON leader and PM
George Osborne pic.twitter.com/WV5zs03Yzv

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    first wicket down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    2nd man in.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 26m26 minutes ago
    Cuts in tax credits are £4.5bn a year. Huge reduction in household earnings #budget2015
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I suspect this Budget will go down as the biggest mismatch between initial hype and long-term reputation, since Brown's 2007 Budget (the initial hype being people noticing a cut in basic income tax, before everyone noticed the scrapping of the 10p band later on).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 26m26 minutes ago
    Cuts in tax credits are £4.5bn a year. Huge reduction in household earnings #budget2015

    Yep, dragging them back to the level of the dark year of poverty that was 2008.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    The dividend tax will piss a lot of my clients off, but as im currently lazing by a pool in cyprus, i cant look into the implications, and i dont care at the moment. Time for another cocktail.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Danny565 said:

    I suspect this Budget will go down as the biggest mismatch between initial hype and long-term reputation, since Brown's 2007 Budget (the initial hype being people noticing a cut in basic income tax, before everyone noticed the scrapping of the 10p band later on).

    Some of us noticed it at the time - it was only when Labour MPS (finally) woke up all hell broke loose.....
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    FTSE seems to be giving the budget a thumbs up - on a day when Greece and China are giving global markets the willies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    "£100k" Leslie really is rubbish.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited July 2015
    I see the BBC has turned into a cozy chat between Labourites, about what this means for Labour.

    I don't give a sh#t what this means for Labour, I want to know how it affects me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Patrick said:

    FTSE seems to be giving the budget a thumbs up - on a day when Greece and China are giving global markets the willies.

    Actually it's pretty neutral, up a smidgen but so are Dow Jones, Dax and CAC
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Just walked past the Westminster austerity demo. The demo is very austerity focussed (there is no one there). The police presence is about 4 police men for each protester
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    Danny, are you assuming everyone has kids in your posts ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    Danny, are you assuming everyone has kids in your posts ?
    Tax credits for everyone are being frozen (i.e. real-terms cut). Not convinced the shortfall will be made up by a modest increase in the minimum wage, but I'll wait for the IFS analysis before shooting my mouth off even more!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    edited July 2015
    A clever budget that sets the political agenda for the next few years.

    Many of the mistakes of the past (eg applying the bedroom tax retrospectively instead of to new tenancies) avoided. Enough thumps against the rich to offset the Inheritance tax changes and then the pay rise for the poor. Didn't touch the 45p rate.

    Will it all unravel? I think he has learned to avoid that too after the omnishambles budget. But the more leisurely stroll to a balanced budget is a risk. If the economy turns down in the next 3 years (more likely than not IMO) the deficit will remain and some of the bombast today might look a little bit silly.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    The wage people can live on is determined by their individual circumstances, not some social policy construction.

    The key point is that people at the bottom are getting a 10%+ payrise on their hourly rate.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited July 2015
    Tax credits and the living wage distort the labour market, sending out misleading information, Osborne should work to dispense with both. The 'living wage' is pure student politics - a misleading, vacuous feel good phrase beloved by fake charities, NGOs, poverty campaigners and interventionist politicians.

    Brown's Tax Credit system has been a disaster. End it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    Danny, are you assuming everyone has kids in your posts ?
    "Hard-working singletons" :lol:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    chestnut said:



    The key point is that people at the bottom are getting a 10%+ payrise on their hourly rate.

    But they're not when tax credit changes are taken into account.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Pah !!

    Sorry this is not a real budget....... it's no where near a real budget ......it's an imitation budget !



    It will only be a real budget when I see Danny Alexander stood outside No 11 with a yellow telytubbie lunch box.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    chestnut said:



    The key point is that people at the bottom are getting a 10%+ payrise on their hourly rate.

    But they're not when tax credit changes are taken into account.
    And a lot of people are not on tax credits
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,871
    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    But what is a 'decent' standard of living, and why should British people expect a 'decent' standard of living, when we as a country are not earning decent money? A gentle slide into relative poverty ('internal devaluation' as I have heard it called) is inevitable and infinitely preferable to continuing the way we are until hitting a big brick wall.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    Danny, are you assuming everyone has kids in your posts ?
    Tax credits for everyone are being frozen (i.e. real-terms cut). Not convinced the shortfall will be made up by a modest increase in the minimum wage, but I'll wait for the IFS analysis before shooting my mouth off even more!
    I've never seen a tax credit in my life though, even when I was on 10k !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    chestnut said:



    The key point is that people at the bottom are getting a 10%+ payrise on their hourly rate.

    But they're not when tax credit changes are taken into account.
    Danny, the only working people that are losing out here are those with as-yet-unborn larger families.

    What is happening is that the state is taking less of your money in the first place, rather than taking it first then handing some of it back via an inefficient and error prone bureaucracy.

    Or is your primary concern for the jobs of those working in that bureaucracy?
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited July 2015
    htps://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJTRgZ6UsAAspjS.jpg

    While we're waiting for a Greek proposal, this cartoon by Dutch center-left newspaper, Volkskrant, sums up what many think of Greece.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    I suspect this Budget will go down as the biggest mismatch between initial hype and long-term reputation, since Brown's 2007 Budget (the initial hype being people noticing a cut in basic income tax, before everyone noticed the scrapping of the 10p band later on).

    "before everyone noticed the scrapping of the 10p band later on"

    Wrong , the Tories pointed out the glaring error a year previously when it was announced as did a number of others. The ignorant colossus twat decided he knew best and doubled the tax on millions of low paid at the Stroke of a marker pen.

    Just another one of his calamitous, I know best ( but didn't ) decisions . Any lectures from Labour on fiscal policy after 13 years of that utter imbecile are wasted breath.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    I can read between the lines. Douglas wants to re-rat, and who can blame him, he thought he was joining UKIP and ended up in the Farage Ego Party.

    @BBCLouise: UKIP MP @DouglasCarswell says there's a lot in this budget he can support - like increasing tax threshold #budget2015
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Still really struggling to understand the logic of differentiating between property wealth and other wealth on the Inheritance Tax thing - we need to encourage more efficient use of property, whereas this will surely encourage the elderly to continue living in oversized inappropriate houses so that they can be passed on tax free. Or have I fundamentally mis-understood something?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can read between the lines. Douglas wants to re-rat, and who can blame him, he thought he was joining UKIP and ended up in the Farage Ego Party.

    @BBCLouise: UKIP MP @DouglasCarswell says there's a lot in this budget he can support - like increasing tax threshold #budget2015

    Odds of Carswell jumping back once the EU Referendum is out of the way?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can read between the lines. Douglas wants to re-rat, and who can blame him, he thought he was joining UKIP and ended up in the Farage Ego Party.

    @BBCLouise: UKIP MP @DouglasCarswell says there's a lot in this budget he can support - like increasing tax threshold #budget2015

    Positively Churchillian heh what?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will this have an effect on immigration?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Lennon said:

    Still really struggling to understand the logic of differentiating between property wealth and other wealth on the Inheritance Tax thing - we need to encourage more efficient use of property, whereas this will surely encourage the elderly to continue living in oversized inappropriate houses so that they can be passed on tax free. Or have I fundamentally mis-understood something?

    Osborne said you can downsize and still count the money. That been said it is still way more complex that it needed to be.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/asi/status/618778259396907008
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will struggle. Children will have to be born within the next 20 months which realistically means one more child from those a family already has. Technically possible to go through two pregnancies but extremely unlikely. So a family would have to have at least two children and can then affect one more before the cap is put in place.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    philiph said:

    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will this have an effect on immigration?
    You got to think the sound of £9/hr to an Eastern European + tax credits + high tax free threshold + strong jobs market, is going to sound very very attractive.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Fewer children called Mohammed would be nice. I wonder how many of those are paid for by the State compared to other groups?
    philiph said:

    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will this have an effect on immigration?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:

    What people don't seem to realise is that the level of the living wage TAKES TAX CREDITS INTO ACCOUNT. Without tax credits, a wage that people can live on is much higher than £9 even now, let alone in 2020.

    I have to admit, I don't think PBTories are being deliberately "heartless" -- from posts here, I'm getting the impression people don't realise how many people receive them and how crucial they are for people to get a decent standard of living.

    There are a lot of people who are on low wages and don't claim tax credits either because of eligibility issues or because they just choose not to. This helps those people. A lot.

    If someone is irresponsible enough to have more than two children on low wages then I agree, this is going to result in a net loss, but my sympathy for such people is very limited.

    Also, a higher minimum wage encourages people to take on more work/hours as well. Someone is much more likely to go in for a Saturday shift at £9 than at £7.70 (the projected NMW in 2020). Someone working 42 hours pw will earn £19.6k, a couple where one works part time and one full time would earn £25k per year between them, and be taxed between just £2-3k for NI and some income tax. It will finally pay to work and we won't need massive in-work subsidies from the government to make it pay to work.

    How is this not good news? You need to take a step back and have an objective look at tax credits and what they were designed to do and what they now do. They are a form of corporate subsidy for low wages. Osborne is grasping that nettle, and good on him. I have never understood Labour's pandering to business on tax credits and having a low minimum wage. We shouldn't have a situation where companies are making huge profits and having their staff's wages subsidised by the tax payer. It has never made any sense. Labour would do well to stop wittering on about tax credits today and get behind these changes. Making work pay and getting corporates to do it out of their pockets is a worthwhile goal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 26m26 minutes ago
    Cuts in tax credits are £4.5bn a year. Huge reduction in household earnings #budget2015

    Won't someone think of the yet to be conceived children ?!?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/asi/status/618778259396907008

    Is that the same AS institute with a transparency rating of E ?

    http://whofundsyou.org/org/adam-smith-institute
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5m5 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Looks like an incentive to work more hours..


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Lennon said:

    Still really struggling to understand the logic of differentiating between property wealth and other wealth on the Inheritance Tax thing - we need to encourage more efficient use of property, whereas this will surely encourage the elderly to continue living in oversized inappropriate houses so that they can be passed on tax free. Or have I fundamentally mis-understood something?

    You are right, it's a silly idea. As @FrancisUrquhart points out, there's a further wrinkle to overcome the down-sizing issue, but that's just piling complication on complication. If Osborne wanted to reduce the burden of IHT on families of modest means, he should simply have raised the threshold.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    I see the marchers are out again. No jobs to go to?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Moses_ said:

    Pah !!

    Sorry this is not a real budget....... it's no where near a real budget ......it's an imitation budget !

    It will only be a real budget when I see Danny Alexander stood outside No 11 with a yellow telytubbie lunch box.

    Well, he could. He has time on his hands....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 5m5 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Honestly, my sympathy for that hypothetical person is limited unless the kids happen to be twins. After the first child that person should have thought to themselves, hang on a minute, this is pretty hard, maybe I should be a bit more responsible and not have any more kids and concentrate on the one I already have.

    It is not up to the state to fund people's lifestyle choices. We absolutely need to incentivise having children, no doubt, but not at any cost. With the new childcare changes and school hours now extended to allow full time work, this person could easily take on more hours or find a full time job at 30 hours or more per week.

    There are people out there who work extremely hard to get by and higher wages will help them enormously as well as the higher allowance. Labour needs to not set itself against these people in order to stand up for people who have made a lifestyle living on benefits and tax credits doing the bare minimum to qualify (16h pw is the bare minimum for single parents to qualify for the working tax credit).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2015
    As part of the change (from 2016/17) to the pension annual allowance for high earners, HMRC are aligning all 'pension input periods' with the tax year. Details here (with rather complex transitional arrangements):

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/443255/6046_Pensions_tapered_annual_allowance.pdf

    Key point: "The carry forward of unused annual allowance will continue to be available, but the amount available will be based on the unused tapered annual allowance"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    And the personal allowance increase, social rent reduction, 30 hours of free childcare from age 3, change to Universal Credit meaning there's no marginal cutoff at 16 hours etc etc etc.
    Oh, and that the Chancellor just said that no-one will be worse off in cash terms due to welfare changes announced today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    philiph said:

    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will this have an effect on immigration?
    You got to think the sound of £9/hr to an Eastern European + tax credits + high tax free threshold + strong jobs market, is going to sound very very attractive.
    They should read Kevin MacGuire's tweets - he thinks they will be worse off..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Why only work 16 hours? I thought there was more free child care than that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Why work 16 when there's 30 hours of free childcare. 16 hours isn't a cap though Labour made it into an artificial cap on part time workers with their convoluted tax credits system.

    As an employer I was often told by staff on tax credits that they didn't want to work more than 16 hours as it affected their tax credits. Simplifying the system removes that cap.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    philiph said:

    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Why only work 16 hours? I thought there was more free child care than that.
    School lasts for 30 hrs + a week - so no excuses there..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Draw relaid now at a far more attractive 2.76.

    Thanks Root !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Lennon said:

    Still really struggling to understand the logic of differentiating between property wealth and other wealth on the Inheritance Tax thing - we need to encourage more efficient use of property, whereas this will surely encourage the elderly to continue living in oversized inappropriate houses so that they can be passed on tax free. Or have I fundamentally mis-understood something?

    You are right, it's a silly idea. As @FrancisUrquhart points out, there's a further wrinkle to overcome the down-sizing issue, but that's just piling complication on complication. If Osborne wanted to reduce the burden of IHT on families of modest means, he should simply have raised the threshold.
    I see it happening before 2020, "because of complexities in the current system leading to new avenues for IHT avoidance I have decided to combine these two amounts to give people a £500k transferable allowance". By then the idea of £1m estates having some kind of exemption will be considered quite normal so combining the £325k and new £175k property only aspect won't be controversial.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Exactly. That false ceiling/disincentive has gone.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Why work 16 when there's 30 hours of free childcare. 16 hours isn't a cap though Labour made it into an artificial cap on part time workers with their convoluted tax credits system.

    As an employer I was often told by staff on tax credits that they didn't want to work more than 16 hours as it affected their tax credits. Simplifying the system removes that cap.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    philiph said:

    Danny565 said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 7m7 minutes ago
    Single parent, 2 kids, works 16hrs on min wage down £460 next year cause tax credit cuts bigger than "living wage" rise, Labour calculates

    Why only work 16 hours? I thought there was more free child care than that.
    From 2016, you will get 30 hours free per week for 3 and 4 year olds. And, of course, they spend longer than at school after that. It seems like Kevin Maguire is in an exercise to find the minute population that can be found to be temporarily worse off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited July 2015
    TGOHF said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    philiph said:

    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    Will this have an effect on immigration?
    You got to think the sound of £9/hr to an Eastern European + tax credits + high tax free threshold + strong jobs market, is going to sound very very attractive.
    They should read Kevin MacGuire's tweets - he thinks they will be worse off..
    I wasn't commenting on the reality, I was commenting on how it sounds on the surface of it. If you go Romania and say you can earn guaranteed £9/hr in a few years and pretty much all of it is tax free and then you can also get tax credits, that is going to sound even better than £6.50/hr.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT For social history buffs and movie nerds - this looks fascinating stuff @Andy_JS thought this would be up your street too.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3152544/World-s-earliest-home-movies-display-showing-London-family-enjoying-families-Bognor-Regis-Isle-Wight-1902.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL
    williamglenn said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    Who? What does LD stand for?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    With less than a dozen MPs and a vote a third lower than UKIP, they're more of a lobby group than a political party at this point.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    williamglenn said:

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"

    Umm...

    @ITVborder: "Everything Lib Dems stopped" coming out in today's Budget, @timfarron says http://t.co/NIPWEMbnlm http://t.co/lyX6R7Uno2
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Plato said:

    I see the marchers are out again. No jobs to go to?

    Ms Plato there you go again popping the lefty righteous Indignant bubble. We should all know now where Labour is concerned never let facts get in the way of a damn good rant.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"

    Umm...

    @ITVborder: "Everything Lib Dems stopped" coming out in today's Budget, @timfarron says http://t.co/NIPWEMbnlm http://t.co/lyX6R7Uno2
    So - it was the LDs blocking the living wage ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    In the more important news of the day, what a great partnership between Ballance and Root, 135 and counting, 50s for them both.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"

    Umm...

    @ITVborder: "Everything Lib Dems stopped" coming out in today's Budget, @timfarron says http://t.co/NIPWEMbnlm http://t.co/lyX6R7Uno2
    LOL
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Patrick said:

    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?

    Some of the BBC leftie folk seem in a state of shock. Peston certainly is.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm sure someone in Labour will find something that actually is a bit of a problem for more than 0.0005% of the population within the next 24hrs, but right now - it's very thin gruel and nit-picking.
    Moses_ said:

    Plato said:

    I see the marchers are out again. No jobs to go to?

    Ms Plato there you go again popping the lefty righteous Indignant bubble. We should all know now where Labour is concerned never let facts get in the way of a damn good rant.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    They're in an even more difficult position to respond than Labour. They can hardly say, "Look how nasty Osborne is without our moderating influence!"

    Umm...

    @ITVborder: "Everything Lib Dems stopped" coming out in today's Budget, @timfarron says http://t.co/NIPWEMbnlm http://t.co/lyX6R7Uno2
    What, like increasing the minimum wage for over 25s? I didn't realize the Lib Dems were so right wing...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Disraeli said:

    Plato said:

    I wonder what the Child Tax Credit changes will have on birth rates? Quite a biggie I suspect.

    Sales in Durex going up yet? :wink:

    In the short term, people may bring forward having children to qualify for CTC before the new regime comes in in April 2017.

    Mini Baby Boom? :-)
    I'll try that line on Mrs Price tonight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Have the SNP called the budget an "absolute disgrace" yet ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Patrick said:

    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?

    Some of the BBC leftie folk seem in a state of shock. Peston certainly is.
    Completely shellshocked the lot of them.

    They spent the first half of the day talking (as they love to so much) about themselves, now they are really not sure what to think any more.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Patrick said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    Who? What does LD stand for?
    It's a shoe shop, right?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Pulpstar said:

    Have the SNP called the budget an "absolute disgrace" yet ?

    Did they applaud it?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    Who? What does LD stand for?
    It's a shoe shop, right?
    I hope you weren’t relying on an inheritance from the old man :lol:
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Sandpit said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Patrick said:

    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?

    Some of the BBC leftie folk seem in a state of shock. Peston certainly is.
    Completely shellshocked the lot of them.

    They spent the first half of the day talking (as they love to so much) about themselves, now they are really not sure what to think any more.
    Can't be easy being a lefty these days. They are:
    1. Wrong (about everything)
    2. Out of power
    3. Unpopular
    4. Making no headway
    5. Have to sit and watch the other team knocking them into the net almost daily.
    6. oh...and Greece
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited July 2015
    I think George will be the next Conservative leader...

    And because of Labour weakness I expect he'll win the 2020 election...

    But I still think, ultimately, he will be unpopular with the British people, which allow's Labour to return to power and begin the process of bankrupting again starting 2025...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Martin Lewis very keen on changes to Rent A Room - I missed that. Anyone know about it?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    For those working in / around London just received update on tube strikes . Tubes stop at 1800 tonight



    The ASLEF, RMT, Unite and TSSA unions are currently planning strike action, affecting Tube services. If this goes ahead, we expect the following:

    Wednesday 8 July

    Tube services will stop running at around 18:00, so please complete any Tube journeys by that time. Services are expected to be exceptionally busy between 16:00 and 18:00. Please travel earlier if you can and allow more time for your journey.

    Thursday 9 July

    There will be no Tube service all day. Extra bus and river services will run. Other public transport and roads will be much busier than usual, especially during peak hours. Please travel outside the peak times if you can.

    Friday 10 July

    There may be some disruption during the morning as services resume.

    Staff on the bus network, the DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Trams, river services, Emirates Air Line and Santander Cycles are not on strike. There is separate strike action by the RMT on First Great Western services from Thursday 9 July for 48-hours. As always, we advise you to check with your train operator or national rail enquiries. All of these services are expected to be much busier than usual.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Plato said:

    Martin Lewis very keen on changes to Rent A Room - I missed that. Anyone know about it?

    You used to be able to earn ~£4000 tax free, but that level has remained for 18 years. It will be raised to ~£7000.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Patrick said:

    Sandpit said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Patrick said:

    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?

    Some of the BBC leftie folk seem in a state of shock. Peston certainly is.
    Completely shellshocked the lot of them.

    They spent the first half of the day talking (as they love to so much) about themselves, now they are really not sure what to think any more.
    Can't be easy being a lefty these days. They are:
    1. Wrong (about everything)
    2. Out of power
    3. Unpopular
    4. Making no headway
    5. Have to sit and watch the other team knocking them into the net almost daily.
    6. oh...and Greece
    7. oh...and Trade Unions
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    For those using First great Western from the SW into and out of Paddington

    Due to planned strike action by RMT

    • There will be minor alternations to services after 18.00 on Wednesday 8th July.

    • Services on Thursday 9th July to start of service on Saturday 11th July will be significantly affected.

    • An overtime ban on Saturday 11th July could also mean late notice changes or possible cancellations. We are hoping there will only be minor alterations.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Its a bit pointless commenting on the detail of this budget. Will it pave the way for a general cut in the basic rate in a few years? This would seem to me to be the pertinent question. Worrying about the usual knee jerk responses from the familiar army of tame lefties and the slide rule workings of the professors has been shown to be a waste of time.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Plato said:

    Martin Lewis very keen on changes to Rent A Room - I missed that. Anyone know about it?

    Allowing the tax free amount you can get from renting a room in your house to increase from 4500 (?) to 7500 (?) - I'm a bit hazy on the numbers, but those were roughly the numbers.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    At first glance, this looks like a highly impressive and inventive Tory Budget from a highly impressive and inventive Chancellor.

    He's become the Gordon Brown figure of this new Tory age in terms of his dominance of the political agenda - albeit a competent and sensible equivalent doing the right things for the economy (so a complete contrast to Brown then!)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a good little earner for spare roomers.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato said:

    Martin Lewis very keen on changes to Rent A Room - I missed that. Anyone know about it?

    You used to be able to earn ~£4000 tax free, but that level has remained for 18 years. It will be raised to ~£7000.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It appears that Grexit is starting to have a political appeal in Greece, by looking at the Greek Defense Minister's twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/PanosKammenos/status/618123114883469313/photo/1

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Sandpit said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Patrick said:

    I'm watching the BBC News channel with Nick Robinson and Robert Peston. Currently interviewing Chris Leslie (Labour shadow chancellor). They're being surprisingly balanced and good. Not a Tory bashing or praising session. Has the recent Beeb scaring rubbed off?

    Some of the BBC leftie folk seem in a state of shock. Peston certainly is.
    Completely shellshocked the lot of them.

    They spent the first half of the day talking (as they love to so much) about themselves, now they are really not sure what to think any more.
    Can't be easy being a lefty these days. They are:
    1. Wrong (about everything)
    2. Out of power
    3. Unpopular
    4. Making no headway
    5. Have to sit and watch the other team knocking them into the net almost daily.
    6. oh...and Greece
    7. oh...and Trade Unions
    8 George snaffles and improves any halfway decent ideas they have.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    One of the things the Tube staff are complaining about is that they might have to work at any station up to 45 minutes away. It sounds like it would be difficult to fit a 45 minute commute into their 35 hour working week.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chakrabortty: Not content with merely beating Labour, Osborne wants to nick their clothes – then club them to death. Me on budget http://t.co/k7ngX9mQi8
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Plato said:

    That's a good little earner for spare roomers.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato said:

    Martin Lewis very keen on changes to Rent A Room - I missed that. Anyone know about it?

    You used to be able to earn ~£4000 tax free, but that level has remained for 18 years. It will be raised to ~£7000.
    It is about the market rate for a double room in London isn't it? ~£600 pcm...?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    edited July 2015
    It looks like they're also clamping down on wear and tear allowances for landlords. BTL very much in the Treasury's sights.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    But then look across at a Labour frontbench in disarray at the prospect of spending another decade out of power, too frightened to say anything leftwing. Her Majesty’s opposition is retreating from their own territory – leaving Osborne to rush in and plant a big blue flag on it. Do not underestimate the political seriousness behind this budget: just like the last Conservative governments of Thatcher and Lawson and Major, this administration is getting together a cogent true-blue appeal to working- and middle-class voters. Yes, it’s cruel to those in low-paid or no work, even while directing cash to the richest. But I wouldn’t bet on a timid, uninspired Labour party to point that out – or defend its own turf.
    Scott_P said:

    @chakrabortty: Not content with merely beating Labour, Osborne wants to nick their clothes – then club them to death. Me on budget http://t.co/k7ngX9mQi8

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Charities are now piling our their press releases and shock horror it is all doom, gloom and evil Tories.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Patrick said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone heard a LD comment yet? They've disappeared completely.

    Who? What does LD stand for?
    Lost Deposits.
    The party lost a total of £170,500 in deposits.
This discussion has been closed.