Mr. Patrick, whilst I share your lack of confidence in the capabilities of the quartet, it's a long way to the 2020 vote.
Strangely - I think Hattie Hateperson has been doing a bang-up job as interim leader. Probably she's a much better candidate than the 4 Gimp show actually on offer. And when Harman is your star player - tells you all you need to know about the strength of talent on Labour's front bench these days!
We know Labour voters are splitting Burnham then Cooper then Corbyn then Kendall from the yougov polling. We know voters as a whole are splitting Burnham then Kendall then Cooper then Corbyn from the ORB polling. What we need to see are some figures for members as OGH suggests to see if Labour members differ much from Labour voters and if the figures about the general public's preferences are having an impact
I guess the biggest upcoming political betting event is going to be the EU referendum. (Personally I see the Labour leadership thing as a sideshow - the new leader will not win a GE but will be an IDS or Kinnock type enabler for a later potential victor). So...how about a thread on the implications of Greece on the EU referendum? The Euro and the EU have never looked to be in more trouble than they do right now. There are all sorts of 'beginning of the end' articles in the news highlighting the fundamental mis-design of the Euro and how it can never end well. The EU we may be asked to leave or stay with in a year or more could be a very different beast from today. What's becoming brutally apparent is that the EU exists to further the interests of the EU and not its member states and even less the interests of its peoples. It's a project loved by political elites across Europe but with very little core support among the men on the Clapham or Coblenz or Cordoba Omnibus. For me the biggest awakening seems to be that the left is starting to hate the EU! Blimey. Times change huh?
Plus ca change. You do not need to go back too far to recall that it was Labour who gave us a referendum on membership, or that campaigned for withdrawal. It was the Conservative Party which has led the way on the EU from joining in the first place, through the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty. Similarly it was Labour who kept us out of the Euro and its predecessors and the Conservatives who shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.
Mr. JohnL, it was interesting seeing a snippet of news which had a Conservative MP (didn't know him, though, might've been a rare pro-EU chap) agreeing with leftist Corbyn over the EU and Greece's vote, and the need to recognise a democratic decision (although that hasn't exactly happened in the past).
A good article by William Hague in the DT today, restating the point from 15 years ago that the Euro would be a failure in recession without serious fiscal co-operation.
Economics has few laws, which is why economic forecasts are so maddeningly unreliable. If it has one law, it is this: that if you fix together some things which naturally vary, such as interest rates and exchange rates, other things, such as unemployment and wages, will vary more instead. And in a single currency zone, which has exactly this effect, you can only get round these problems by paying big subsidies to poorly performing areas, and expecting workers to move in large numbers to better performing ones.
This is what happens in the United States, or indeed within the United Kingdom. In general it works. In the Eurozone it does not work, because either Greeks have to cure their poor economic performance or Germans have to pay them big subsidies forever, and neither are willing or able to do so. This, in a sentence, is the problem of the Eurozone, and continued denial of it will only make that problem worse.
There are three important truths for Eurozone leaders to recognise today as they are forced to choose between the credibility of their currency and the permanence of European unity.
I wonder what he plans to do now he has retired from the Commons? He had his career very young, is still only 54.
I guess the biggest upcoming political betting event is going to be the EU referendum. (Personally I see the Labour leadership thing as a sideshow - the new leader will not win a GE but will be an IDS or Kinnock type enabler for a later potential victor). So...how about a thread on the implications of Greece on the EU referendum? The Euro and the EU have never looked to be in more trouble than they do right now. There are all sorts of 'beginning of the end' articles in the news highlighting the fundamental mis-design of the Euro and how it can never end well. The EU we may be asked to leave or stay with in a year or more could be a very different beast from today. What's becoming brutally apparent is that the EU exists to further the interests of the EU and not its member states and even less the interests of its peoples. It's a project loved by political elites across Europe but with very little core support among the men on the Clapham or Coblenz or Cordoba Omnibus. For me the biggest awakening seems to be that the left is starting to hate the EU! Blimey. Times change huh?
Depends how the EU referendum impacts on the party splits etc. Of course do not forget even Kinnock would have beaten Thatcher had she stayed on in 1992 and that in 2020 Cameron will not be Tory leader. Had Blair not been Labour leader in 2005 and Howard faced Brown it may well have been a closer call, especially if Britain had still gone into Iraq backed by Brown
Of course what Greece could have done back in 2010/11 was default then on most of its sovereign debt (about half of which was owned by foreigners). That would have avoided taking on ridiculously large 'bailout' loans.
It would also have caused serious problems for the French and German banking systems requiring taxpayer infusions into both (probably). So soon after the financial crisis the French and Germans really didn't want that so Greece was persuaded to accept a 'rescue' that pushed the issue down the line.
The Germans and French must have known (as they do now) that their taxpayers would get burned in the end, but it might be years away, would be less visible, and there was just a slim chance they might get away with it.
By the time 2012's default came along, European bank exposures had been wound down sufficiently that the systemic risk had passed. But instead of the default letting Greece reset the clock with a modest debt/GDP ratio, Greece continued to have a high debt ratio which just then got bigger and bigger as the crazed austerity policies crushed the country's GDP.
In the end 2012's default was pretty pointless - if you are going to crush your creditors you may as well do it properly and get some benefit from it.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
Could you have imagined John Major as PM in 1989 or Attlee in 1944 or Heath in 1969? Who knows what will happen. Could you imagine Boris or Javid or Osborne as PM either?
The tin foil brigade might have a point when charging that the so-called bail-out was to rescue French and German banks and not the Greek economy.
Nevertheless it was the largest aggregate creditor write-down in history. It's easy to say with hindsight that it didn't go far enough but it's grossly unfair to characterise Greece as the victim.
Of course what Greece could have done back in 2010/11 was default then on most of its sovereign debt (about half of which was owned by foreigners). That would have avoided taking on ridiculously large 'bailout' loans.
It would also have caused serious problems for the French and German banking systems requiring taxpayer infusions into both (probably). So soon after the financial crisis the French and Germans really didn't want that so Greece was persuaded to accept a 'rescue' that pushed the issue down the line.
The Germans and French must have known (as they do now) that their taxpayers would get burned in the end, but it might be years away, would be less visible, and there was just a slim chance they might get away with it.
By the time 2012's default came along, European bank exposures had been wound down sufficiently that the systemic risk had passed. But instead of the default letting Greece reset the clock with a modest debt/GDP ratio, Greece continued to have a high debt ratio which just then got bigger and bigger as the crazed austerity policies crushed the country's GDP.
In the end 2012's default was pretty pointless - if you are going to crush your creditors you may as well do it properly and get some benefit from it.
Why should 'austerity' crush their economy? Their economy was corrupt in the first place. Look at the jobs we have created despite so called 'austerity'. We are taking steps to collect taxes and cut spending. Why not stop and think for a minute and consider that the lenders might know full well what Greece's problems are and are not prepared to lend money simply in order to perpetuate the corrupt practices that riddle the Greek economy and its society.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
Could you have imagined John Major as PM in 1989 or Attlee in 1944 or Heath in 1969? Who knows what will happen. Could you imagine Boris or Javid or Osborne as PM either?
Once Major got out on his soap-box, then yes I absolutely could. Attlee and Heath were before my time. BoJo, and Javid, no I can't, but I can see Osborne as PM.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
The only one that might stand a chance of attracting votes from the centre is Kendall, although she's very much an unknown quantity and hasn't been as visible during the campaign as one might have expected when it started.
Burnham and Cooper both stand for those who think that Ed and his policies were just fine, if only the electorate had been better communicated at (rather than 'with').
Corbyn is a surprisingly eloquent speaker (like most non-members I'd not paid attention to him until recently) but what comes out of his mouth makes Neil Kinnock sound like Margaret Thatcher!
Labour need to look at electoral maps of 2005, and decide who is going to make the seats that were red then, red in 2020.
Of course what Greece could have done back in 2010/11 was default then on most of its sovereign debt (about half of which was owned by foreigners). That would have avoided taking on ridiculously large 'bailout' loans.
It would also have caused serious problems for the French and German banking systems requiring taxpayer infusions into both (probably). So soon after the financial crisis the French and Germans really didn't want that so Greece was persuaded to accept a 'rescue' that pushed the issue down the line.
The Germans and French must have known (as they do now) that their taxpayers would get burned in the end, but it might be years away, would be less visible, and there was just a slim chance they might get away with it.
By the time 2012's default came along, European bank exposures had been wound down sufficiently that the systemic risk had passed. But instead of the default letting Greece reset the clock with a modest debt/GDP ratio, Greece continued to have a high debt ratio which just then got bigger and bigger as the crazed austerity policies crushed the country's GDP.
In the end 2012's default was pretty pointless - if you are going to crush your creditors you may as well do it properly and get some benefit from it.
Why should 'austerity' crush their economy? Their economy was corrupt in the first place. Look at the jobs we have created despite so called 'austerity'. We are taking steps to collect taxes and cut spending. Why not stop and think for a minute and consider that the lenders might know full well what Greece's problems are and are not prepared to lend money simply in order to perpetuate the corrupt practices that riddle the Greek economy and its society.
No, no, no.. Too far, too fast. Chocked off the recovery, etc., etc.
Why not stop and think for a minute and consider that the lenders might know full well what Greece's problems are and are not prepared to lend money simply in order to perpetuate the corrupt practices that riddle the Greek economy and its society.
Yes, when Tsipras called the troika's proposals humiliating he was right. It is humiliating for a first-world democracy to have to be told by outsiders how to implement the most basic aspects of good governance. If they don't like the taste the answer is not to spit out the medicine but to focus on getting well as quickly as possible.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
Could you have imagined John Major as PM in 1989 or Attlee in 1944 or Heath in 1969? Who knows what will happen. Could you imagine Boris or Javid or Osborne as PM either?
Once Major got out on his soap-box, then yes I absolutely could.
Well, that would probably have been aided by the fact he was PM at that point. There's nothing quite so prime ministerial as being prime minister.
Good morning all. My condolences to Mr Dancer; I have a sixteen year old Westie and I know how much it hurts to lose a faithful friend.
I think the first indication on how Labour are going to tackle their electoral challenges is their response to tomorrow's budget. I fear* they're going to be like the restored Bourbon monarchy.
*only because our parliamentary system requires a decent, thoughtful opposition. As currently constituted, and based on their record 2001-2010 they should never be let near government.
Actually there were plenty of people who said at the time that Greece's 2012 default and the 'bailouts' wouldn't work; that they were only buying time.
I will concede though that by 2014 plenty of people who should have known better had been taken in by the 'Greece is fixed' story.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
Could you have imagined John Major as PM in 1989 or Attlee in 1944 or Heath in 1969? Who knows what will happen. Could you imagine Boris or Javid or Osborne as PM either?
Once Major got out on his soap-box, then yes I absolutely could. Attlee and Heath were before my time. BoJo, and Javid, no I can't, but I can see Osborne as PM.
I could see Osborne as PM, much as I could see Brown as PM but could I see either winning a general election after becoming PM like Major did? No, not really
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Would at least show a sense of humour... Oh, wait.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
The only one that might stand a chance of attracting votes from the centre is Kendall, although she's very much an unknown quantity and hasn't been as visible during the campaign as one might have expected when it started.
Burnham and Cooper both stand for those who think that Ed and his policies were just fine, if only the electorate had been better communicated at (rather than 'with').
Corbyn is a surprisingly eloquent speaker (like most non-members I'd not paid attention to him until recently) but what comes out of his mouth makes Neil Kinnock sound like Margaret Thatcher!
Labour need to look at electoral maps of 2005, and decide who is going to make the seats that were red then, red in 2020.
I guess the biggest upcoming political betting event is going to be the EU referendum. (Personally I see the Labour leadership thing as a sideshow - the new leader will not win a GE but will be an IDS or Kinnock type enabler for a later potential victor). So...how about a thread on the implications of Greece on the EU referendum? snip
Depends how the EU referendum impacts on the party splits etc. Of course do not forget even Kinnock would have beaten Thatcher had she stayed on in 1992 and that in 2020 Cameron will not be Tory leader. Had Blair not been Labour leader in 2005 and Howard faced Brown it may well have been a closer call, especially if Britain had still gone into Iraq backed by Brown
The Iraq War began in March 2003. So its extremely unlikely that Brown would have been leader then ... the iraq issue had been fermenting for many many months before that. The only way Brown would have been PM would be if he had led an anti war palace revolution before the invasion. As it is Blair was still PM with Brown tagging along behind him and the Tories still only managed the grand total of 198 seats.
The big upcoming event is not the referendum its the negotiations that will precede it. One way or another the referendum will be a foregone conclusion based on the success or failure of the negotiations. I am not sure that logic plays any part in future speculations these days but I would have thought that current events would open EU minds to making live easier for Cameron.
On topic: This market continues to act in a rather strange way. If you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to do well, and quite possibly make it to the final two as Luke Akehurst and Peter Kellner have suggested, then surely that makes Yvette more likely to win, not less likely?
Mr. JohnL, it was interesting seeing a snippet of news which had a Conservative MP (didn't know him, though, might've been a rare pro-EU chap) agreeing with leftist Corbyn over the EU and Greece's vote, and the need to recognise a democratic decision (although that hasn't exactly happened in the past).
If so he's as thick as a plank - what does the phrase 'recognise a democratic decision' mean?
I vote to abolish gravity and we all float into lala land. Do me a favour. the Greeks can vote till they're blue in the face - doesn't make the debts go away.
On topic: This market continues to act in a rather strange way. If you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to do well, and quite possibly make it to the final two as Luke Akehurst and Peter Kellner have suggested, then surely that makes Yvette more likely to win, not less likely?
I can't see past it being either Cooper or more likely Burnham.
Of course they'll probably drift out now my most recent moves have been laying off the rags !
Mr. JohnL, it was interesting seeing a snippet of news which had a Conservative MP (didn't know him, though, might've been a rare pro-EU chap) agreeing with leftist Corbyn over the EU and Greece's vote, and the need to recognise a democratic decision (although that hasn't exactly happened in the past).
But the 'democratic decision' the Greek voters made was to leave the Euro. Their 'democratic decision' (based on what looks to me to be an absurdly low turn out in the circumstances) was to refuse to pay their creditors. The notion that a creditor should respect your decision not to pay you (effectively ever) is clearly absurd. Its even more absurd to say that a potential lender should meekly agree you your 'democratic decision' on the terms under which you would borrow. Unfortunately for all us borrowers, the boot is on the other foot.
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
Slightly off topic for today, but on topic for tomorrow.
What disgusting and thoughtless behaviour from George Osborne. He is supposedly a very well educated Englishman, yet he schedules a major political event for the same date as the start of the Ashes. Very poor show from the Chancellor, would never have happened in John Major's day.
I guess the biggest upcoming political betting event is going to be the EU referendum. (Personally I see the Labour leadership thing as a sideshow - the new leader will not win a GE but will be an IDS or Kinnock type enabler for a later potential victor). So...how about a thread on the implications of Greece on the EU referendum? snip
Depends how the EU referendum impacts on the party splits etc. Of course do not forget even Kinnock would have beaten Thatcher had she stayed on in 1992 and that in 2020 Cameron will not be Tory leader. Had Blair not been Labour leader in 2005 and Howard faced Brown it may well have been a closer call, especially if Britain had still gone into Iraq backed by Brown
The Iraq War began in March 2003. So its extremely unlikely that Brown would have been leader then ... the iraq issue had been fermenting for many many months before that. The only way Brown would have been PM would be if he had led an anti war palace revolution before the invasion. As it is Blair was still PM with Brown tagging along behind him and the Tories still only managed the grand total of 198 seats.
The big upcoming event is not the referendum its the negotiations that will precede it. One way or another the referendum will be a foregone conclusion based on the success or failure of the negotiations. I am not sure that logic plays any part in future speculations these days but I would have thought that current events would open EU minds to making live easier for Cameron.
Had Blair gone into Iraq backed by Brown and stepped down as PM by 2005 and Brown taken over Brown would have had both less appeal to floaters than Blair while also continuing to lose votes to the LDs to his left over Iraq. Certainly renegotiation would help Cameron but how far that renegotation goes is also a factor
Of course what Greece could have done back in 2010/11 was default then on most of its sovereign debt (about half of which was owned by foreigners). That would have avoided taking on ridiculously large 'bailout' loans.
It would also have caused serious problems for the French and German banking systems requiring taxpayer infusions into both (probably). So soon after the financial crisis the French and Germans really didn't want that so Greece was persuaded to accept a 'rescue' that pushed the issue down the line.
The Germans and French must have known (as they do now) that their taxpayers would get burned in the end, but it might be years away, would be less visible, and there was just a slim chance they might get away with it.
By the time 2012's default came along, European bank exposures had been wound down sufficiently that the systemic risk had passed. But instead of the default letting Greece reset the clock with a modest debt/GDP ratio, Greece continued to have a high debt ratio which just then got bigger and bigger as the crazed austerity policies crushed the country's GDP.
In the end 2012's default was pretty pointless - if you are going to crush your creditors you may as well do it properly and get some benefit from it.
While that analysis contains a lot of truth, it's worth remembering:
1. The interest payments as a percent of GDP (which is all you really care about) in Greece are not massively higher than in other countries, because the loans from the ESFS were very generous. Greece pays 4% of GDP on interest, we pay 3% in the UK (and we have paid more than 4% as recently as the early 1980s).
2. Cuts to public spending as a percent of GDP were actually higher in Ireland, and only a little more than in Spain or Portugal. These countries, however, accepted the need for structural reform and have returned to growth and job creation.
It is clear that 2012's default should have been larger, and that the public bodies - particularly the EFSF and the ECB - should have taken a haircut too. However, it is also true that Greece has not carried out a large number of the reforms it promised to in 2012 (reforms that have paid dividends in Spain and Portugal).
Without structural reforms, the Greek economy will struggle. Being in the Euro makes it worse, but ultimately Greek governments over many decades have made promises to their people (particularly their civil servants) that are not affordable, especially given their low birthrate.
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
Well all the polling evidence suggests he has most appeal, I can only go on that and Labour would do well to listen to it this time rather than ignore it as they did in 2010 despite polls showing David M the public's favoured candidate not Ed M. As for Mid Staffs that story has been around for some time it does not seem to have been fatal for him despite tabloid attempts to find something to hang over his head
Well quite. No matter how warm and fuzzy some Labourites are about regional accent based Shadow Cabinet appts, Burnham's emoting looks like the other end of the EdM robot continuum. All that tearful pleading looks weak.
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
Slightly off topic for today, but on topic for tomorrow.
What disgusting and thoughtless behaviour from George Osborne. He is supposedly a very well educated Englishman, yet he schedules a major political event for the same date as the start of the Ashes. Very poor show from the Chancellor, would never have happened in John Major's day.
I think Osborne is more an opera man than Major (though Norma was a fan), Osborne looks like the guy whose closest connection to cricket was being asked to do the scoring 1 Saturday in 3
Actually there were plenty of people who said at the time that Greece's 2012 default and the 'bailouts' wouldn't work; that they were only buying time.
I will concede though that by 2014 plenty of people who should have known better had been taken in by the 'Greece is fixed' story.
It's been said oh so many times before but joining the Euro meant the end of sovereignty for everyone bar Germany. There's no such place as Greece any longer. Call it Greekshire or something. It's a province or a county or a department.
I would say that it's not the Greeks' fault that the basic institutions and mechanisms a common currency requires weren't put in place. But if they'd been set up in advance, I imagine not many countries would have signed up for the Euro in the first place.
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
Well all the polling evidence suggests he has most appeal, I can only go on that and Labour would do well to listen to it this time rather than ignore it as they did in 2010 despite polls showing David M the public's favoured candidate not Ed M. As for Mid Staffs that story has been around for some time it does not seem to have been fatal for him despite tabloid attempts to find something to hang over his head
It now seems quite clear to me to lay Liz Kendall. Unless she gets close to the finishing post on the first preferences, how is she going to get second and lower preferences to get her over the line? And there isn't the slightest indication that she is going to get all that many first preferences.
Well quite. No matter how warm and fuzzy some Labourites are about regional accent based Shadow Cabinet appts, Burnham's emoting looks like the other end of the EdM robot continuum. All that tearful pleading looks weak.
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
When Blair did his ridiculously over the top 'peoples' princess speech' he had an approval rating over 60%. When Hillary Clinton burst into tears in the NH primary the day before polling she went from trailing to winning the state, the voters like to see politicians human side sometimes
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
Well all the polling evidence suggests he has most appeal, I can only go on that and Labour would do well to listen to it this time rather than ignore it as they did in 2010 despite polls showing David M the public's favoured candidate not Ed M. As for Mid Staffs that story has been around for some time it does not seem to have been fatal for him despite tabloid attempts to find something to hang over his head
Well I would probably need some surgery first. If the polling showed Kendall or Cooper or even Corbyn most popular with the public I would say they would be Labour's best bet, I am simply going on what the polling is telling me
Listening to comments from Belgium, Netherlands and Germany, it would appear that Greece would get a favourable hearing if it would do three things: Raise retirement age to 65 or even 67 (a cause of a lot of personal resentment) Cut its bloated public sector Reform its taxation and cut the corruption.
Somehow I think this would be too far for the Greek PM with the referendum result behind him.
The ridiculous behaviour of Varoufakis really has not helped. He may be gone but the Greeks still seem to think that they have an entitlement rather than a need to plead and ask for generosity.
I suspect that if Euclid Tsakalotos lives up to his reputation as an opponent of Euro membership then the Eurozone might soon be looking back at Varoufakis rather wistfully.
I would have the Eurozone leaders would be overjoyed if Greece asked for help in leaving the bloc!
Robert - structural reforms add a few tenths to growth over a decade or two. You must know that. Any positive impact in a situation like this is swamped by the macroeconomic policy settings.
In Greece, it was not only the question of the fiscal stance but the monetary stance as well. Greece's broad money supply dropped by a third from 2009-2012, which is a Great Depression style decline.
That was a direct effect of euro membership - outside the euro, the Greek authorities could have engaged in an expansionary monetary policy that would have cushioned the impact of fiscal cutbacks. Inside they had to resort to 'internal devaluation' which was never going to work especially given how high Greece's debts were. The Troika's policies were self-defeating and contradictory.
And let's not get too excited about Spain (unemployment rate 23%, down just 2% from its peak in 2012, GDP growth 1.4% last year after five years of recession/stagnation) and Ireland (unemployment rate 10.2%, working population shrunk since 2009 thanks to emigration). These places have done better than Greece, but their economic performance since 2007 is still appalling.
It now seems quite clear to me to lay Liz Kendall. Unless she gets close to the finishing post on the first preferences, how is she going to get second and lower preferences to get her over the line? And there isn't the slightest indication that she is going to get all that many first preferences.
I've followed you in on that with a lay of £50/£200 at 5.0 !
Thanks, Mr. M, and Mr. Divvie (never had that issue, though, perhaps because I generally prefer dogs to humans).
Mr. Flightpath, indeed, I wasn't expressing that as my view just relaying it as an odd coincidence of opinion between two proponents of the left and right in this country.
Mr. Patrick, me miserum indeed.
Miss Plato, quite. Tears are appropriate for funerals and related matters, not all the bloody time. Makes Mascara Man come across as a wibbling nancy.
I've followed you in on that with a lay of £50/£200 at 5.0 !
You beat me to it!
I think she's value to lay at any price below 8 as a minimum. To win she needs to lead on first preferences and to get a substantial number of transfer preferences from Yvette Cooper's elimination. The second isn't a foregone conclusion and there isn't the slightest suggestion in any of the publicly available information of the first at present - she looks more likely to finish fourth than first. Her campaign is the one in most serious trouble right now.
Hmm. Didn't see Coco Vandeweghe's match, but Sharapova wasn't that convincing against Diyas (Kazakh number one) the other day. Vandeweghe is over 5 to win.
On Ladbrokes, any tie-break (3.25) and a tie break in set 1 (5.5) may also be tempting.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel has for the first time admitted that it was a mistake to allow Greece to join the euro zone. “The entry of Greece into the euro is carried out from today’s perspective, very naive,” Gabriel said in an interview with Stern. “Worse is that all have watched far too long” as the country fell deeper and deeper into crisis, added the Vice-Chancellor.
Hmm. Didn't see Coco Vandeweghe's match, but Sharapova wasn't that convincing against Diyas (Kazakh number one) the other day. Vandeweghe is over 5 to win.
On Ladbrokes, any tie-break (3.25) and a tie break in set 1 (5.5) may also be tempting.
Hmm. Didn't see Coco Vandeweghe's match, but Sharapova wasn't that convincing against Diyas (Kazakh number one) the other day. Vandeweghe is over 5 to win.
On Ladbrokes, any tie-break (3.25) and a tie break in set 1 (5.5) may also be tempting.
Anyone see Vandeweghe play?
Didn't see her play (other than the 2minutes on the wimbledon review of the day which is pretty poor) but she appears to have a pretty strong serve as her main weapon - which suggests Tie-Breaks very possible (even quite likely I'd have thought) against a 'higher' ranked opponent - so that 3.25 and 5.5 seem reasonable bets in my (uneducated) view.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
The Germans either need to accept the idea of loans so soft (1% P.A, not repayable for another 20 years, and then a thousand year term say) they act as a near permanent transfer, or Greece leaves the Euro.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
If struggling governments in the periphery are led to believe that by playing hardball they can get what they want, the internal workings of the euro are going to be incredibly fractious in future. It would put in place internal pressures that could pull the euro apart.
I think if Greece gets "one off" special treatment, then there will have to be a rule change after. Perhaps the sort of fiscal union that would prevent a direct repeat.
I agree that it is a bad idea to knock over the Greek domino when nobody knows for sure what lies in the path of its fall.
Is that true even if you start from a structural basket-case, though?
Like Britain in the 1970s, perhaps? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
Average GDP growth in the UK in the 1980s wasn't much different to that in the previous decade. I'd suggest the full benefits of the 1980s reforms weren't really seen until the mid-1990s.
And all the long-overdue reforms of the 1980s couldn't save the UK from severe external shocks and macro policy mistakes; the oil shock at the start of the 1980s, excessively tight monetary policy at the same time, and then the ridiculously expansionary policies (including the crazed D-Mark shadowing policy) at the end of the 1980s that set up the early 1990s recession.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
The Germans either need to accept the idea of loans so soft (1% P.A, not repayable for another 20 years, and then a thousand year term say) they act as a near permanent transfer, or Greece leaves the Euro.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
A structured settlement would help to limit the moral hazard - debt forgiveness only after reforms have been implemented to a standard approved by the creditors.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
There is very little difference now between the two sides on pension reform, VAT, budget surplus targets etc. The difference can easily be bridged. The Greeks could simply accept the last Troika offer. But they would want something in return i.e. some form of debt forgiveness.
This is the show stopper. Most of the players agree that it is necessary. The IMF have issued a report on it. The problem is that the German electorate will not accept it. And how about Ireland and Portugal who took the medicine?
What is needed is a creative fudge that satisfies both sides along the lines of: A long term plan - no debt needs to be repaid for 10 years or until the budget surplus exceeds e.g. 3%. or a short term plan - no debt needs to be repaid during the next 12 months and we will review debt forgiveness in early 2016.
A Tory MP has caused a splash after he was spotted half naked - in an advert for shower gel on American TV.
Former Army captain Johnny Mercer is seen lathering himself in the bathroom in a commercial for Dove Men currently airing in the States.
The new Plymouth MP shot the advert in London before he was elected but after he was chosen to contest the parliamentary seat for Plymouth Moor View in Devon.
The point is not "are Spain and Ireland" looking fabulous. The point is, both are recovering strongly: Spain will have grown 1.9% in the first half of 2015, and should certainly exceed 3.5% this year. Ireland grew by 4.7% last year. Ireland's government debt-to-GDP has now shrunk by over 10% from its peak. Spain's has almost certainly peaked. Job creation in both countries is strong.
Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece all went into the crisis with deeply unbalanced economies. Because the Euro brought much lower interest rates than these countries were used to, they went on borrowing (and building) binges. In Spain and Portugal, the economy was dominated by building apartment blocks that were optimistically expected to be sold to Germans. In Greece, there was a similar - if somewhat lesser - boom, combined with a government that let debts climb and climb. In Ireland, property speculation was even more extreme than in the Iberian peninsular (and nice as Dublin is, it's hard to see it as haven for foreigners).
Spain and Portugal, by 2007, had 10% current account deficits. Greece was almost 15%. (Ireland, with its strong pharmaceutical and technology industries, was a more modest 5%.)
You need to be extraordinarily blinkered not to think that Spain and Ireland are well on the road to recovery. Both now run current account surpluses. Both have seen their private sector (personal and corporate) substantially delever. Both have much more sustainable economic models than they did before.
There are many reasons why they have been able to recover faster than Greece: better infrastructure, better educated workforces, lower starting government debt-to-GDP; but structural reform is a core part of it: flexible workforces, low social charges, a proper land registry, easy enforcability of contracts, properly capitalised banks.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
Why should Greece's debt-to-GDP be cut to a level below that in - say - Italy?
Spain in the hole for €25 billion, and both Italy and France for near twice that. I cannot see those creditors agreeing to a further haircut to support an unreformed Greece.
If Syrizia couldn't come up with an acceptable proposal in the last 5 months then who can realistically see one now?
In March 2010 about 40% of total European lending to Greece was via French banks, today only 0.6% is. In the absence of the various 'Greek' loans, France would have been forced into a massive bailout of its banking system. Instead, French banks were able virtually to eliminate their exposure to Greece by selling bonds, allowing bonds to mature, and taking partial write-offs in 2012. The bailout effectively mutualized much of their exposure within the Eurozone.
ECB actions in regards to the Greek banks at the behest of other member states is indeed legally and economically unjustifiable.
The tin foil brigade might have a point when charging that the so-called bail-out was to rescue French and German banks and not the Greek economy.
A Tory MP has caused a splash after he was spotted half naked - in an advert for shower gel on American TV.
Former Army captain Johnny Mercer is seen lathering himself in the bathroom in a commercial for Dove Men currently airing in the States.
The new Plymouth MP shot the advert in London before he was elected but after he was chosen to contest the parliamentary seat for Plymouth Moor View in Devon.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
The Germans either need to accept the idea of loans so soft (1% P.A, not repayable for another 20 years, and then a thousand year term say) they act as a near permanent transfer, or Greece leaves the Euro.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
A structured settlement would help to limit the moral hazard - debt forgiveness only after reforms have been implemented to a standard approved by the creditors.
Could the Greeks accept a deal where forgiveness is explicitly contingent on creditor approval of their progress?
I know the Greeks have been pushing to couple the two issues together, and that creditors have been keen to decouple them - only a fool would write off debt based on a promise of reform which both the current government or any successor is perfectly capable of reneging on. (Blair. Rebate. CAP reform promise. Oops. Same principle applies here.) Moreover I don't think the German government is in a position to agree anything about debt without some solid guarantee, or evidence, of reform - they have painted themselves into a corner, but it is the corner that the German demos want them to be fighting from (great thing, democracy, one of Greece's finest exports).
I'd be interested if Syriza could accept a deal like you describe which effectively puts them under international supervision for their reform process (my guess, uninformed, is not, but who knows?) and whether the other Europeans are prepared to recouple debt forgiveness and the bailout/reforms talks (gives them a carrot to wave, so possibly, but it is a painful volta face and it is in many ways a very dangerous carrot).
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
Why should Greece's debt-to-GDP be cut to a level below that in - say - Italy?
Quite. Also, good luck getting the IMF to write off a huge chunk of debt owed by a developed economy where many of its own members thought they shouldn't be getting involved and exposing themselves to risk in the first place.
But I also thought Calum made a sensible point.
MBE's Rule for Financial Crisis Management: don't knock over a domino "to teach the other dominoes a lesson."
(Apologies if this phrase has already been coined.)
Like Britain in the 1970s, perhaps? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
Average GDP growth in the UK in the 1980s wasn't much different to that in the previous decade. I'd suggest the full benefits of the 1980s reforms weren't really seen until the mid-1990s.
A pity, then, that (unlike Portugal, Spain and especially Ireland) Greece has largely wasted 5 of the 10-15 years needed for improvements to show through, and even more a pity that the current government is actually going backwards on the very tentative reforms which have been started. In the circumstances, it seems quite rational of the creditors to lose patience with them.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
The Germans either need to accept the idea of loans so soft (1% P.A, not repayable for another 20 years, and then a thousand year term say) they act as a near permanent transfer, or Greece leaves the Euro.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
A structured settlement would help to limit the moral hazard - debt forgiveness only after reforms have been implemented to a standard approved by the creditors.
Could the Greeks accept a deal where forgiveness is explicitly contingent on creditor approval of their progress?
I know the Greeks have been pushing to couple the two issues together, and that creditors have been keen to decouple them - only a fool would write off debt based on a promise of reform which both the current government or any successor is perfectly capable of reneging on. (Blair. Rebate. CAP reform promise. Oops. Same principle applies here.) Moreover I don't think the German government is in a position to agree anything about debt without some solid guarantee, or evidence, of reform - they have painted themselves into a corner, but it is the corner that the German demos want them to be fighting from (great thing, democracy, one of Greece's finest exports).
I'd be interested if Syriza could accept a deal like you describe which effectively puts them under international supervision for their reform process (my guess, uninformed, is not, but who knows?) and whether the other Europeans are prepared to recouple debt forgiveness and the bailout/reforms talks (gives them a carrot to wave, so possibly, but it is a painful volta face and it is in many ways a very dangerous carrot).
The write off would come after the implementation of a reform, one could offer a menu of reforms and it would be up to them how much or how many they implement. The EU are as bad as Syriza, they have to accept there will be writedowns, at the moment they are just playing to the loony wing of Syriza who are in reality a small fraction of the Greek parliament.
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
Why should Greece's debt-to-GDP be cut to a level below that in - say - Italy?
MBE's Rule for Financial Crisis Management: don't knock over a domino "to teach the other dominoes a lesson."
(Apologies if this phrase has already been coined.)
Like Britain in the 1970s, perhaps? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
Average GDP growth in the UK in the 1980s wasn't much different to that in the previous decade. I'd suggest the full benefits of the 1980s reforms weren't really seen until the mid-1990s.
A pity, then, that (unlike Portugal, Spain and especially Ireland) Greece has largely wasted 5 of the 10-15 years needed for the improvements to show through, and even more a pity that the current government is actually going backwards on the very tentative reforms which have been started. In the circumstances, it seems quite rational of the creditors to lose patience with them.
Greece has implemented substantial reforms unfortunately not enough carrot was offered resulting in the election of Syriza.
'Spy chiefs are warning that new and terrible atrocities are inevitable in the UK – and security services may not be able to stop them.
The dire warning comes as a Mirror survey reveals up to 1.5 million Britons could be supporters of Islamic State.
On the 10th anniversary of the 7/7 bombings highlights hardcore support for the terror network, with one in 11 Brits holding a “positive” view of the group.
But the disturbing poll of 2,016 British adults taken over the weekend also found support for the group was up 2% to 9%.
It found 3% have a “very favourable view”, up 1% from a year ago – suggesting around half of Britain’s three million Muslims could be IS sympathisers.'
Europe's response to the hole Greece has been digging thus far has been to take the shovels out of their hands and replace them with a fleet of JCBs.
Indeed, I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline.
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
The Germans either need to accept the idea of loans so soft (1% P.A, not repayable for another 20 years, and then a thousand year term say) they act as a near permanent transfer, or Greece leaves the Euro.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
A structured settlement would help to limit the moral hazard - debt forgiveness only after reforms have been implemented to a standard approved by the creditors.
There is the point that debt in itself doesn't affect anyone. It is of course the terms of the debt. If I swpped my credit card and mortgage debts I'd suddenly be poorer in a very real sense...
So the Eurozone could give a repayment holiday or some such if Greece ups the pension age to 70 tommorow, and sells off the Acropolis ^_~
You are absolutely right that there needs to be some way of linking reforms to debt relief. Trust of the SYRIZA government, on the EU/IMF side is absolutely zero, as they have reneged on a number of promises: rehiring laid off civil servants, halting privatisations, and labour market reform.
But, as many have pointed out, Greece's debt burden is unsustainable. It needs to be 125% of GDP, not 175%. And the EU needs to do more to get growth moving in Greece.
The best possible option for Greece is for them to leave the Eurozone. Unfortunately, while that would help Greece, it is not a panacea on its own. There are almost a million recipients of civil service pensions in Greece (not all of whom are ex civil servants, but that's another story). Whether Greece is inside or outside the Eurozone, it needs to improve its tax collection, liberalise its labour market and reform its pensions. SYRIZA does not wish to do any of these, because they would be deeply unpopular.
'Spy chiefs are warning that new and terrible atrocities are inevitable in the UK – and security services may not be able to stop them.
The dire warning comes as a Mirror survey reveals up to 1.5 million Britons could be supporters of Islamic State.
On the 10th anniversary of the 7/7 bombings highlights hardcore support for the terror network, with one in 11 Brits holding a “positive” view of the group.
But the disturbing poll of 2,016 British adults taken over the weekend also found support for the group was up 2% to 9%.
It found 3% have a “very favourable view”, up 1% from a year ago – suggesting around half of Britain’s three million Muslims could be IS sympathisers.'
Even allowing for the fact that it's a fast-growing religion, if 9% of British adults have a favourable view of Islamic State, most of them are going to be non-Muslims.
I'd hazard a guess that most of these people expressing this view don't have a clue what Islamic State is.
'Spy chiefs are warning that new and terrible atrocities are inevitable in the UK – and security services may not be able to stop them.
The dire warning comes as a Mirror survey reveals up to 1.5 million Britons could be supporters of Islamic State.
On the 10th anniversary of the 7/7 bombings highlights hardcore support for the terror network, with one in 11 Brits holding a “positive” view of the group.
But the disturbing poll of 2,016 British adults taken over the weekend also found support for the group was up 2% to 9%.
It found 3% have a “very favourable view”, up 1% from a year ago – suggesting around half of Britain’s three million Muslims could be IS sympathisers.'
Just on a technical point for the poll, were there any non muslim identifying 'positive/favourable' respondents. Some of the "very positive view" people will be WUMs.
Bit quiet, but those into motorsport might be interested in Rallycross. Saw a little last night (I was channel-hopping whilst waiting for news on the dog). Very short races, but quite exciting. It was on Quest (Freeview 37, give or take) about 8pm.
No betting opportunities, though.
When Hungary gets going, I'll check for No Safety Car. The Hungaroring is notable for being tedious, and also for having the fewest safety cars of any circuit. The track is wide, there's lots of run-off and the corners are medium speed which means overtaking/following is hard (decreasing car-to-car collisions) and the odds on a high speed crash into the barriers are long.
Safety Car isn't impossible, though, as reliability's a bit rubbish for some teams this year and a breakdown in certain areas would demand one. Uncertain if the Virtual Safety Car counts (there have been two this year but both occurred in races which also saw a real one emerge).
Very sorry to hear about Kai, Morris. As with people, a swift passing is the best for the victim, but the hardest on the family.
On topic, a straw in the wind is that Cooper seems to be edging ahead on CLP nominations, though we need Andrea to update us. These are reasonably significant in terms of polling the fairly active members - they are typically (all?) OMOV affairs, not an executive stitch-up, so something like a fifth of the membership will be taking part.
Personally I think a significant risk of both Kendall and Corbyn is that substantial numbers of members would simply leave, including some big names. They'd need to do some big tent gestures very quickly.
A Corbyn victory would actually be a great help to a fair few of us. It would demonstrate that Labour had given up entirely on being a serious political party; thus we would never need to waste our time with it again.
That said, it's silly now to read anything much into anything that is happening in the leadership contest. Assuming Corbyn does not win and we still have a party that might have a shot at government in 2020, the interesting and important bit is what happens once the result is known: how the new leader sets out his/her stall and then develops policy, who he/she appoints into key roles, what happens to the losing candidates, and so on. Real politics starts again in October/November. Before that, the Tories have an entirely clear path.
Comments
As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.
Mr. JohnL, it was interesting seeing a snippet of news which had a Conservative MP (didn't know him, though, might've been a rare pro-EU chap) agreeing with leftist Corbyn over the EU and Greece's vote, and the need to recognise a democratic decision (although that hasn't exactly happened in the past).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11721838/Greece-does-not-mark-the-end-of-the-euro-debacle-merely-the-beginning.html I wonder what he plans to do now he has retired from the Commons? He had his career very young, is still only 54.
'As for Labour, they should stick with Harriet, she's doing a grand job just now.'
Better still if she used her pink van as her official car.
Can you imagine any of the contenders as PM? I mean really?
It would also have caused serious problems for the French and German banking systems requiring taxpayer infusions into both (probably). So soon after the financial crisis the French and Germans really didn't want that so Greece was persuaded to accept a 'rescue' that pushed the issue down the line.
The Germans and French must have known (as they do now) that their taxpayers would get burned in the end, but it might be years away, would be less visible, and there was just a slim chance they might get away with it.
By the time 2012's default came along, European bank exposures had been wound down sufficiently that the systemic risk had passed. But instead of the default letting Greece reset the clock with a modest debt/GDP ratio, Greece continued to have a high debt ratio which just then got bigger and bigger as the crazed austerity policies crushed the country's GDP.
In the end 2012's default was pretty pointless - if you are going to crush your creditors you may as well do it properly and get some benefit from it.
Conservativehome today has the top 3 as Boris on 23% Javid 23% Osborne 22% amongst Tory members to succeed Cameron
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/07/boris-javid-and-osborne-battle-it-out-to-lead-our-future-leadership-survey.html
Burnham and Cooper both stand for those who think that Ed and his policies were just fine, if only the electorate had been better communicated at (rather than 'with').
Corbyn is a surprisingly eloquent speaker (like most non-members I'd not paid attention to him until recently) but what comes out of his mouth makes Neil Kinnock sound like Margaret Thatcher!
Labour need to look at electoral maps of 2005, and decide who is going to make the seats that were red then, red in 2020.
Neither zero hours contracts nor the top rate of tax will be bothering the average plebian of these places ;p
I think the first indication on how Labour are going to tackle their electoral challenges is their response to tomorrow's budget. I fear* they're going to be like the restored Bourbon monarchy.
*only because our parliamentary system requires a decent, thoughtful opposition. As currently constituted, and based on their record 2001-2010 they should never be let near government.
I will concede though that by 2014 plenty of people who should have known better had been taken in by the 'Greece is fixed' story.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html
The big upcoming event is not the referendum its the negotiations that will precede it. One way or another the referendum will be a foregone conclusion based on the success or failure of the negotiations. I am not sure that logic plays any part in future speculations these days but I would have thought that current events would open EU minds to making live easier for Cameron.
Of course they'll probably drift out now my most recent moves have been laying off the rags !
'Indeed, but I think Burnham has broader appeal than you suggest.'
You seriously believe that when the general public are paying attention (which is clearly not now), a whining scouser that looks about to burst into tears with the Mid Staffs plaque hung around his neck is going to have broader appeal ???
What disgusting and thoughtless behaviour from George Osborne. He is supposedly a very well educated Englishman, yet he schedules a major political event for the same date as the start of the Ashes. Very poor show from the Chancellor, would never have happened in John Major's day.
- Corbyn reaches final round = Yvette wins
- Corbyn eliminated before final round = Andy wins
1. The interest payments as a percent of GDP (which is all you really care about) in Greece are not massively higher than in other countries, because the loans from the ESFS were very generous. Greece pays 4% of GDP on interest, we pay 3% in the UK (and we have paid more than 4% as recently as the early 1980s).
2. Cuts to public spending as a percent of GDP were actually higher in Ireland, and only a little more than in Spain or Portugal. These countries, however, accepted the need for structural reform and have returned to growth and job creation.
It is clear that 2012's default should have been larger, and that the public bodies - particularly the EFSF and the ECB - should have taken a haircut too. However, it is also true that Greece has not carried out a large number of the reforms it promised to in 2012 (reforms that have paid dividends in Spain and Portugal).
Without structural reforms, the Greek economy will struggle. Being in the Euro makes it worse, but ultimately Greek governments over many decades have made promises to their people (particularly their civil servants) that are not affordable, especially given their low birthrate.
I would say that it's not the Greeks' fault that the basic institutions and mechanisms a common currency requires weren't put in place. But if they'd been set up in advance, I imagine not many countries would have signed up for the Euro in the first place.
Oh what a tangled web we weave etc.
*edited to remedy blatant apostrophe abuse.
http://labourlist.org/2015/07/labour-leadership-candidates-answer-readers-questions-on-education/
http://labourlist.org/2015/07/mandelson-slams-labours-awful-complacency/
In Greece, it was not only the question of the fiscal stance but the monetary stance as well. Greece's broad money supply dropped by a third from 2009-2012, which is a Great Depression style decline.
That was a direct effect of euro membership - outside the euro, the Greek authorities could have engaged in an expansionary monetary policy that would have cushioned the impact of fiscal cutbacks. Inside they had to resort to 'internal devaluation' which was never going to work especially given how high Greece's debts were. The Troika's policies were self-defeating and contradictory.
And let's not get too excited about Spain (unemployment rate 23%, down just 2% from its peak in 2012, GDP growth 1.4% last year after five years of recession/stagnation) and Ireland (unemployment rate 10.2%, working population shrunk since 2009 thanks to emigration). These places have done better than Greece, but their economic performance since 2007 is still appalling.
Mr. Flightpath, indeed, I wasn't expressing that as my view just relaying it as an odd coincidence of opinion between two proponents of the left and right in this country.
Mr. Patrick, me miserum indeed.
Miss Plato, quite. Tears are appropriate for funerals and related matters, not all the bloody time. Makes Mascara Man come across as a wibbling nancy.
On Ladbrokes, any tie-break (3.25) and a tie break in set 1 (5.5) may also be tempting.
Anyone see Vandeweghe play?
What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel has for the first time admitted that it was a mistake to allow Greece to join the euro zone. “The entry of Greece into the euro is carried out from today’s perspective, very naive,” Gabriel said in an interview with Stern. “Worse is that all have watched far too long” as the country fell deeper and deeper into crisis, added the Vice-Chancellor.
Either way Greece's creditors aren't getting their money back in any meaningful sense.
I think if Greece gets "one off" special treatment, then there will have to be a rule change after. Perhaps the sort of fiscal union that would prevent a direct repeat.
I agree that it is a bad idea to knock over the Greek domino when nobody knows for sure what lies in the path of its fall.
Like Britain in the 1970s, perhaps? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
Average GDP growth in the UK in the 1980s wasn't much different to that in the previous decade. I'd suggest the full benefits of the 1980s reforms weren't really seen until the mid-1990s.
And all the long-overdue reforms of the 1980s couldn't save the UK from severe external shocks and macro policy mistakes; the oil shock at the start of the 1980s, excessively tight monetary policy at the same time, and then the ridiculously expansionary policies (including the crazed D-Mark shadowing policy) at the end of the 1980s that set up the early 1990s recession.
This is the show stopper. Most of the players agree that it is necessary. The IMF have issued a report on it. The problem is that the German electorate will not accept it. And how about Ireland and Portugal who took the medicine?
What is needed is a creative fudge that satisfies both sides along the lines of:
A long term plan - no debt needs to be repaid for 10 years or until the budget surplus exceeds e.g. 3%.
or a short term plan - no debt needs to be repaid during the next 12 months and we will review debt forgiveness in early 2016.
The point is not "are Spain and Ireland" looking fabulous. The point is, both are recovering strongly: Spain will have grown 1.9% in the first half of 2015, and should certainly exceed 3.5% this year. Ireland grew by 4.7% last year. Ireland's government debt-to-GDP has now shrunk by over 10% from its peak. Spain's has almost certainly peaked. Job creation in both countries is strong.
Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece all went into the crisis with deeply unbalanced economies. Because the Euro brought much lower interest rates than these countries were used to, they went on borrowing (and building) binges. In Spain and Portugal, the economy was dominated by building apartment blocks that were optimistically expected to be sold to Germans. In Greece, there was a similar - if somewhat lesser - boom, combined with a government that let debts climb and climb. In Ireland, property speculation was even more extreme than in the Iberian peninsular (and nice as Dublin is, it's hard to see it as haven for foreigners).
Spain and Portugal, by 2007, had 10% current account deficits. Greece was almost 15%. (Ireland, with its strong pharmaceutical and technology industries, was a more modest 5%.)
You need to be extraordinarily blinkered not to think that Spain and Ireland are well on the road to recovery. Both now run current account surpluses. Both have seen their private sector (personal and corporate) substantially delever. Both have much more sustainable economic models than they did before.
There are many reasons why they have been able to recover faster than Greece: better infrastructure, better educated workforces, lower starting government debt-to-GDP; but structural reform is a core part of it: flexible workforces, low social charges, a proper land registry, easy enforcability of contracts, properly capitalised banks.
Fidel Castro has sent a letter to Tsipras congratulating him on his brilliant victory!
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/griechenland-fidel-castro-gratuliert-tsipras-a-1042427.html
I don't think the CFR would appreciate being called part of the tin foil brigade!
http://sexymp.co.uk/
Yes. Pretty good, and no howling or grunting.
Has Hugo Chavez sent Tsipras a card yet ?
I know the Greeks have been pushing to couple the two issues together, and that creditors have been keen to decouple them - only a fool would write off debt based on a promise of reform which both the current government or any successor is perfectly capable of reneging on. (Blair. Rebate. CAP reform promise. Oops. Same principle applies here.) Moreover I don't think the German government is in a position to agree anything about debt without some solid guarantee, or evidence, of reform - they have painted themselves into a corner, but it is the corner that the German demos want them to be fighting from (great thing, democracy, one of Greece's finest exports).
I'd be interested if Syriza could accept a deal like you describe which effectively puts them under international supervision for their reform process (my guess, uninformed, is not, but who knows?) and whether the other Europeans are prepared to recouple debt forgiveness and the bailout/reforms talks (gives them a carrot to wave, so possibly, but it is a painful volta face and it is in many ways a very dangerous carrot).
Mr. W, huzzah! Sharapova's lovely to look at but she doesn't half make a racket.
Mr. Pulpstar, he was attending a gathering of cheese-makers the other day. He's not seen in public much, though.
But I also thought Calum made a sensible point.
MBE's Rule for Financial Crisis Management: don't knock over a domino "to teach the other dominoes a lesson."
(Apologies if this phrase has already been coined.)
'Spy chiefs are warning that new and terrible atrocities are inevitable in the UK – and security services may not be able to stop them.
The dire warning comes as a Mirror survey reveals up to 1.5 million Britons could be supporters of Islamic State.
On the 10th anniversary of the 7/7 bombings highlights hardcore support for the terror network, with one in 11 Brits holding a “positive” view of the group.
But the disturbing poll of 2,016 British adults taken over the weekend also found support for the group was up 2% to 9%.
It found 3% have a “very favourable view”, up 1% from a year ago – suggesting around half of Britain’s three million Muslims could be IS sympathisers.'
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-terror-attacks-inevitable-theres-6016015
So the Eurozone could give a repayment holiday or some such if Greece ups the pension age to 70 tommorow, and sells off the Acropolis ^_~
You are absolutely right that there needs to be some way of linking reforms to debt relief. Trust of the SYRIZA government, on the EU/IMF side is absolutely zero, as they have reneged on a number of promises: rehiring laid off civil servants, halting privatisations, and labour market reform.
But, as many have pointed out, Greece's debt burden is unsustainable. It needs to be 125% of GDP, not 175%. And the EU needs to do more to get growth moving in Greece.
The best possible option for Greece is for them to leave the Eurozone. Unfortunately, while that would help Greece, it is not a panacea on its own. There are almost a million recipients of civil service pensions in Greece (not all of whom are ex civil servants, but that's another story). Whether Greece is inside or outside the Eurozone, it needs to improve its tax collection, liberalise its labour market and reform its pensions. SYRIZA does not wish to do any of these, because they would be deeply unpopular.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom
Even allowing for the fact that it's a fast-growing religion, if 9% of British adults have a favourable view of Islamic State, most of them are going to be non-Muslims.
I'd hazard a guess that most of these people expressing this view don't have a clue what Islamic State is.
I'd like to see the guts of the poll.
Mr. Pulpstar, aye, could be Dark Jedi taking the piss.
Mr. Antifrank, a valid point, though lots of those willing to go to Syria appear to have gleefully ingested a lethal dose of propaganda.
No betting opportunities, though.
When Hungary gets going, I'll check for No Safety Car. The Hungaroring is notable for being tedious, and also for having the fewest safety cars of any circuit. The track is wide, there's lots of run-off and the corners are medium speed which means overtaking/following is hard (decreasing car-to-car collisions) and the odds on a high speed crash into the barriers are long.
Safety Car isn't impossible, though, as reliability's a bit rubbish for some teams this year and a breakdown in certain areas would demand one. Uncertain if the Virtual Safety Car counts (there have been two this year but both occurred in races which also saw a real one emerge).
New Thread
Cameron was so right about that man.
That said, it's silly now to read anything much into anything that is happening in the leadership contest. Assuming Corbyn does not win and we still have a party that might have a shot at government in 2020, the interesting and important bit is what happens once the result is known: how the new leader sets out his/her stall and then develops policy, who he/she appoints into key roles, what happens to the losing candidates, and so on. Real politics starts again in October/November. Before that, the Tories have an entirely clear path.