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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After two days of turbulence in the LAB leadership betting Yvette is the biggest loser
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As was widely predicted here at the time, Jeremy Corbyn’s nomination has certainly shaken up the leadership battle. Who would have thought that the veteran left-winger would appeal to the Unions and non-centre left element of the party? - Ans, er, most people I’d have thought.
I wonder if the anonymous Labour MP who said: “Jeremy Corbyn would do for our electoral chances what myxomatosis did for rabbits.” is an Andy Burnham supporter?
For example the left vote for Corbyn to send a message, the right rallies around Kendall, neither Burnham nor Cooper makes it to the final two, Kendall wins, even though she'd have lost a head-to-head against Burnham or Cooper.
It was only 2 months ago that WITH published polling punters were flying blind :-)
The biggest risk though is that some Tory crisis puts him in number 10.
This message was brought to you by Tories for Corbyn
Right: 35 Kendall > Burnham > Corbyn
Centre: 32 Burnham > Kendall > Corbyn
Left: 32 Corbyn > Burnham > Kendall
Say you agree with the Left camp. Vote Corbyn, he goes through against Kendall, she gets Burnham's transfers and wins. Alternatively you vote tactically for Burnham, he gets all Corbyn's transfers and Blairism is placed in a lead-lined coffin and buried in a swamp. *
* Only to emerge again in 2020 when Burnham or Cooper loses.
PS No disrespect to Cooper, the example only needs 3 contenders and Corbyn got the C.
I think Lamb is too long though. He did well at last nights hustings. Farron should be favourite but not by so much.
Democracy is alive and well in one part of the EU anyway, congrats Hungary.
To get to number 10, he would have to win an election. While @Danny565 may not think that people who vote for right wing parties are necessarily right wing themselves (in which s/he is of course partially correct, although if they are prepared to vote for such parties they are clearly not tribally left-wing) it is also inconceivable that anyone willing to vote for Nigel Farage or David Cameron would vote for Corbyn.
It is also quite hard to see, given new rules on union funding, exactly where he would get the money to fight an election.
He wouldn't be a Michael Foot or an Iain Duncan Smith - he would be a George Lansbury. The only question would be who would play the role of Ernest Bevin.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21656230-hungary-shuts-door
The Hungarian government is unpleasant but any government would be doing something in the circumstances.
Free Lunch: ECB enemy of the Euro
Strangling Greek banks is legally and economically unjustifiable
Argues in essence that the ECB is failing in its duty under the treaties to "promote the smooth operation of payment systems" and "support the general economic policies in the Union with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Union" which includes "imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns" - that is to say, to make sure that the functioning of banks does not depend on the solvency of the state (and vice versa).
(a) The cart is before the horse - the Labour party needs to decide first in which direction it wants to go - that is if it ever could decide that.
(b) There is no apparent visionary leader available to elect.
Perhaps they have decided to let 2020 go and focus on 2025?
I put a tenner on at 500/1.
Does that make me crayzeee? Probably!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NZ7NjHC3Kh4/UJz5RhXefFI/AAAAAAAAU2s/nUbMwplnC-w/s1600/Michelle-Obama-flag-president-2016-jpg-purple64ets.jpg
The Blair that won the Labour leadership was significantly to the left of Liz Kendall today. Blair moved rightwards in office, and took (some of) his party with him. In fact, Blair moved rightwards very substantially.
That seems to me to be the main difference between Blair and Kendall, and why I’d be very surprised if Kendall could actually win from here.
In fact, I think its likely she’d split the party if she won.
In retrospect, the result at Morley and Outwood is turning out to be very significant.
Balls, like him or loathe him, is stronger than any of the 4 candidates actually on offer. (After all, he beat Burnham last time).
And I think Balls could have been an agent for necessary change in the Labour Party who could have carried most of it with him.
Not impossible at all. "Tories for Corbyn" beware, you may get what you wish for!
Kai, my dog, died suddenly last night. Tumour, which caused internal bleeding and a sudden collapse.
On-topic: this is why AV is stupid.
Corbyn seems to actually have found a mystical land, which scientists only theorised about, which exists to the left of Ed Miliband.
Do you think - and I really would like to know the answer - that Labour have no chance of winning the next election either? Because that seems the logical corollary of your comments and that has pretty profound implications for this leadership race as well. If Labour are electing somebody to reform the party structures rather than a potential Prime Minister, then their best option by far is surely Yvette Cooper, as notwithstanding the HIPS fiasco she is the best organiser and of course would have Balls' support from outside the Commons.
If they are trying for power, I think it's still Liz Kendall. If it's to shore up the core vote, it's Andy Burnham. If it's to turn the party into an apocalyptic religious movement with all the political relevance of the Scientologists - well, they have that option too.
And if it is Yvette Cooper, do you think she could 'do a Howard', implement those reforms, and then resign in favour of someone better - and if so, whom?
There is no easy solution to this. The draw of life in Europe or North America and Australasia is a very strong one. Close off legal entry and create a market for illegal entry.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-33411219
Saw the Nefertiti bust (stop giggling) on a BBC4 art programme. It's very impressive indeed.
Edited extra bit: cheers, Mr. Pubgoer, Mr. Financier.
It's alarming to think how little strategic vision some financial journalists have. We saw the same thing in Ireland a few years ago when, unforgettably, a journalist called Brendan Keenan argued that as the houses had been built, the banks would lose no money on them and therefore the bad loans would be 'about 1% of their [the banks'] loan book.' Of course, he was so incredibly wrong that he was promoted, but I do hope we won't see the same thing over again.
*shakes cobwebs from head*
Cooper +58~
Corbyn +12~
Burnham +46~
Kendall +21~
D Miliband -37~
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33421521
Spain in the hole for €25 billion, and both Italy and France for near twice that. I cannot see those creditors agreeing to a further haircut to support an unreformed Greece.
If Syrizia couldn't come up with an acceptable proposal in the last 5 months then who can realistically see one now?
Mr. Pulpstar, cheers. He was only six, so it's rather a shock.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8788464/BC-or-BCE-The-BBCs-edict-on-how-we-date-events-is-AD-absolute-drivel.html
Laid £25 at an average of 34s atm on him.
Raise retirement age to 65 or even 67 (a cause of a lot of personal resentment)
Cut its bloated public sector
Reform its taxation and cut the corruption.
Somehow I think this would be too far for the Greek PM with the referendum result behind him.
Hounds leave a big hole when they go. Going suddenly is such a shock.
Hope you can offer a lovely home to a another muttley when you're ready. I find it really helps me to remember the things I loved about the missing friend.
Px
Burnham has been fairly consistently made to look foolish by Hunt.
Cooper is a clever woman but a leaden speaker who really struggles to hold an audience.
Kendall has so far shown an aptitude for sound bites but little else. She has the most potential, I think, to develop into someone who could make Labour electable but it is a hell of a gamble.
Corbyn is presumably there to show Labour hasn't lost its sense of humour entirely.
None comes close to Balls as an operator, a thinker or a driving force who could have made their party an electoral force to be reckoned with.
Incidentally, I was at a dinner party last night with a number of Labour members. They were all voting for Kendall. The idea that she can not appeal to SLAB members is plainly incorrect.
IMO, Labour do have a chance of winning the next election because the effects of the Euro referendum are unpredictable and uncontrollable.
As we have seen in Scotland & in Greece, these referendums have the capacity to surprise. It will take an exceptionally sure-footed performance by the Tories to get through the referendum without blowing themselves up, or the country up.
So, Labour’s chances of winning in 2020 are largely down to the Tories mishandling, and so probably pretty much independent of whether they choose Burnham or Cooper.
I am not as negative about Andy Burnham as OGH, but -- if I was voting -- I’d vote for Cooper.
I think Cooper could win in 2020 versus the Tories led by Osborne, say. I think Burnham could as well, but Cooper would be better.
I don’t subscribe to the line that Kendall (from what I have seen of her) is a Saviour of the Labour Party.
On the Greek crisis, interesting news here:
According to Greek newspaper Kathimerini:
According to sources in Brussels, 16 of the other 18 countries in the eurozone are in favor of letting Greece leave the eurozone and they will have to weigh up the cost of any agreement to keep Athens in the single currency.
Part border collie, part, er, something else (we reckoned bull terrier, on account of his destructive powers. Very few even 'tough' chew toys could withstand his jaws for more than a minute).
Thanks, Miss Plato. Very likely a new hound will be had, but not for a few weeks.
Edited extra bit: cheers Ms. Apocalypse.
Which 2 countries aren't? France and Italy?
In relation to your first sentence, my grandparents lived in the valleys for fifty years from 1938 to 1990. In that time, they voted in every election, be it ever so small and insignificant. They always voted for 'whichever party might beat Labour.' More realistically, they always voted for whichever party was most likely to come a distant second.
It made no difference, but at least they felt they were not to blame for the appalling corruption of the Welsh Labour machine in the Valleys.
The ridiculous behaviour of Varoufakis really has not helped. He may be gone but the Greeks still seem to think that they have an entitlement rather than a need to plead and ask for generosity.
ECB actions in regards to the Greek banks at the behest of other member states is indeed legally and economically unjustifiable.
I am more surprised about your dog from that information, so I can understand your shock. Hope you can find another dog when you are ready (as Plato said).
But I was mildly surprised it was unanimous. None of them thought she was the finished article by any means but they liked the fact she had a more interesting and thought provoking viewpoint, that she was good at standing her ground in interviews, that she at least gave the impression of thinking for herself instead of trotting out tired old clichés. And, frankly, they were a little bit desperate for someone who could inspire some hope. Not an uncommon situation for Labour supporters in Scotland these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKB1PCU90N0
Miss Plato, he was relatively dim for a border collie, which adds credence to the bull terrier theory
Mr. Doethur, saw a map on Sky News last night of countries that were soft/mixed/hard [ahem] towards Greece's plight. Don't know about Portugal, but Ireland was definitely hard-line red.
And yeah, a bolt from the blue.
Mr. Mark, cheers. Had that end of the spectrum too, first dog was nearly 17 when we had to have her put down.
On a lighter note than morbid woe, a new PS4 version has come out (or will, soon) in Japan. This makes it the third (possibly fourth) bloody console in a row where I buy one and an updated, better version comes out within a year.
.....
Edited extra bit: Mr. Doethur, Miliband likes dinners so much he has two kitchens
Cheers, Mr. Gadfly. Not going to listen to that right now.
Marxist, banana, butty.....
My son, who is my source of knowledge on these matters, has been incredibly rude about the PS4 since it came out and made it clear that we were not to buy him one. It will be interesting to see if they have overcome the perceived drawbacks before Christmas. Ahem.
It's generally reckoned to be the superior console. Is he a PC gamer?
A little more here as well:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/afp-eurozone-leaders-to-hold-emergency-summit-on-greece-2015-7?r=US
Doesn't look as though Merkel feels the referendum result has actually changed anything. Which makes the whole exercise an example of extended masochism even worse than Fifty Shades of Grey. It's almost as painful as teaching set 5 of Year 9 last thing on Friday afternoon.
EDIT: before there is any construction placed on that, I was thinking of how painful it is for the teacher.
I am afraid that I rather let his rants about the deficiencies of particular pieces of technology rather wash over me. He was not impressed with the X Box 1 either.
There was a by-election, some years ago. Another Labour MP won the seat and is in fact still the MP for the successor seat.
Nothing has changed. Expect the constituency is now much, much. much poorer.
I guess the biggest upcoming political betting event is going to be the EU referendum. (Personally I see the Labour leadership thing as a sideshow - the new leader will not win a GE but will be an IDS or Kinnock type enabler for a later potential victor). So...how about a thread on the implications of Greece on the EU referendum? The Euro and the EU have never looked to be in more trouble than they do right now. There are all sorts of 'beginning of the end' articles in the news highlighting the fundamental mis-design of the Euro and how it can never end well. The EU we may be asked to leave or stay with in a year or more could be a very different beast from today. What's becoming brutally apparent is that the EU exists to further the interests of the EU and not its member states and even less the interests of its peoples. It's a project loved by political elites across Europe but with very little core support among the men on the Clapham or Coblenz or Cordoba Omnibus. For me the biggest awakening seems to be that the left is starting to hate the EU! Blimey. Times change huh?
Condolences Mr Dancer for your four legged friend.
Let us all remember where we were on this morning exactly ten years ago, as London was the target of terrorists the morning after the jubilation of the Olympics being awarded to the city.
On topic, a straw in the wind is that Cooper seems to be edging ahead on CLP nominations, though we need Andrea to update us. These are reasonably significant in terms of polling the fairly active members - they are typically (all?) OMOV affairs, not an executive stitch-up, so something like a fifth of the membership will be taking part.
Personally I think a significant risk of both Kendall and Corbyn is that substantial numbers of members would simply leave, including some big names. They'd need to do some big tent gestures very quickly.
And with that, I must head off for my training day. Hope everyone has a good day, and best wishes to MD in particular.
He was superb that day - for those old enough to remember, Mr Bannister as Controller moved R1 from AM 1084-1089 to FM only.
He's a member of the PC Master Race, then. Mostly it's tongue-in-cheek mockery (the PC is undoubtedly more flexible/powerful, but also less accessible and costlier than consoles).
Miss Plato, that's just odd. What were they thinking of?
Cheers, Mr. Sandpit.
Mr. Patrick, whilst I share your lack of confidence in the capabilities of the quartet, it's a long way to the 2020 vote.
Mr. Doethur, not seen/read Fifty Shades of Grey, though I've read many comments from people who bought it due to hype and thought it a steaming mound of tosh.
Of course, being inclusive, diverse, and politically correct, Sir Edric's third instalment has its share of S&M, as well as a homosexual couple and a main character who eats people.
I increasingly suspect that all the main players have decided that Grexit is inevitable and are simply playing a blame game for whose fault it is. The Germans seem to have moved on from economic aid as a part of the EZ to humanitarian aid when Greece is not.
The ECB meanwhile, is worried about how much debt it is going to have to write off and wants to be seen to have done what it can to limit that, hence the insistence on more security for the current loans, even if that security will inevitably prove to be less than useless in the event of a Grexit.
When you come to casting your vote, are you thinking of going for the person you really want to win first [or sending a signal]? And do you have to indicate second/third preferences, or is that optional?