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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At exactly 2200 on May 7th UK politics totally changed in the biggest shock election since 1970

After every election since 1979 there’s been a joint academic and MORI (now Ipsos-MORI) conference to look by at what happened and the lessons for the future. The 2015 one takes lace next Monday and Tuesday in London.

Read the full story here

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

1st?
Edit: Many thanks to whoever tipped Froome at 50/1 today as an e/w bet.

HYUFD

Don't forget 1992, Major trailed in all but Gallup on election eve, Cameron actually led in more final polls than he trailed, just most had it tied!

TCPoliticalBetting

FPT

Plato said:

That gives me an excuse... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Much loved "favourite" by some on this website , the Met Office,"Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead. "
"the odds of a very cold winter similar to 2009-10 fall to less than 1% over the same period (2100) "
BBC hack David Shukman is his usual partial self.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33417413
Unfortunately, few of us will be alive to laugh at their failures.

Thanks Plato. Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, "within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said. 20 March 2000

Sunil_Prasannan

Ipsos MORI - no hyphen

TCPoliticalBetting

Was it really a bigger shock than 1992? In 1992 Labour thought they were heading for victory, not a coalition.

Richard_Tyndall

Was it really a bigger shock than 1992?

Oops I see TC has asked exactly the same question.

Richard_Tyndall

TCPoliticalBetting said:

FPT

Plato said:

That gives me an excuse... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Much loved "favourite" by some on this website , the Met Office,"Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead. "
"the odds of a very cold winter similar to 2009-10 fall to less than 1% over the same period (2100) "
BBC hack David Shukman is his usual partial self.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33417413
Unfortunately, few of us will be alive to laugh at their failures.

Thanks Plato. Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, "within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said. 20 March 2000

Oo Oo Don't forget from 2007

"Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

I love that one.

Charles

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Was it really a bigger shock than 1992? In 1992 Labour thought they were heading for victory, not a coalition.

I don't remember a coalition in 1992?

Pulpstar

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

1st?
Edit: Many thanks to whoever tipped Froome at 50/1 today as an e/w bet.

That was me

Chris delivers with a nice 2nd to land the place part

Danny565

FPT:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

Kendall would only be a solution if you think the reason for Labour's defeat was because the public had given a full consideration of Labour's policies, and decided they were too left-wing. I know the Tories want to believe that's the case, but the polling (obvious caveats) and reports from canvassers simply don't back that analysis up.

55% of English voters voted Conservative or UKIP, parties avowedly of the right. To win again, Labour needs to win approximately 20% of this vote

The claim that all UKIP voters are right-wing is just as much nonsense as the claims in 2010 that all Lib Dem voters were left-wing.

ydoethur said:

If on the other hand you think the main reasons for the defeat were that Miliband just didn't come across as a competent leader, and was terrible at actually selling a message, then it's hard to see how Kendall is the answer to either issue (though neither is Corbyn to be fair).

Or, for the matter of that, Yvette Cooper (worst TV manner since the late lamented 14th Earl of Home) or Andrew Burnham, who rightly came fourth last time around.


I still maintain that Tories are underestimating how good a communicator Burnham is. Not at Blair levels obviously (but then who is?) but better than Kendall for sure.

HYUFD

RT/TC Indeed in 1992 the final polls were as follows

NOP Tory 39 Lab 42 LDs 17
Gallup Tory 38.5 Lab 38 LD 20
Mori Tory 38 Lab 39 LD 20
ICM Tory 38 Lab 38 LD 20
Harris Tory 38 Lab 40 LD 18
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

In 2015 the final polls were

Survation Tory 33 Lab 34 LD 9
Yougov Tory 33 Lab 33 LD 10
Ashcroft Tory 32 Lab 30 LD 11
Populus Tory 34 Lab 34 LD 10
Panelbase Tory 32 Lab 34 LD 8
Mori Tory 35 Lab 30 LD 8
Comres Tory 35 Lab 35 LD 7
Opinium Tory 34 Lab 33 LD 9
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

Sunil_Prasannan

Danny565 said:

FPT:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

Kendall would only be a solution if you think the reason for Labour's defeat was because the public had given a full consideration of Labour's policies, and decided they were too left-wing. I know the Tories want to believe that's the case, but the polling (obvious caveats) and reports from canvassers simply don't back that analysis up.

55% of English voters voted Conservative or UKIP, parties avowedly of the right. To win again, Labour needs to win approximately 20% of this vote

The claim that all UKIP voters are right-wing is just as much nonsense as the claims in 2010 that all Lib Dem voters were left-wing.

They voted for a right-wing party!

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

FPT:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

Kendall would only be a solution if you think the reason for Labour's defeat was because the public had given a full consideration of Labour's policies, and decided they were too left-wing. I know the Tories want to believe that's the case, but the polling (obvious caveats) and reports from canvassers simply don't back that analysis up.

55% of English voters voted Conservative or UKIP, parties avowedly of the right. To win again, Labour needs to win approximately 20% of this vote

The claim that all UKIP voters are right-wing is just as much nonsense as the claims in 2010 that all Lib Dem voters were left-wing.

ydoethur said:

If on the other hand you think the main reasons for the defeat were that Miliband just didn't come across as a competent leader, and was terrible at actually selling a message, then it's hard to see how Kendall is the answer to either issue (though neither is Corbyn to be fair).

Or, for the matter of that, Yvette Cooper (worst TV manner since the late lamented 14th Earl of Home) or Andrew Burnham, who rightly came fourth last time around.

I still maintain that Tories are underestimating how good a communicator Burnham is. Not at Blair levels obviously (but then who is?) but better than Kendall for sure.

Indeed, he was at +14% net favourable in that ORB poll, Kendall +6%, Corbyn and Cooper both negative

Danny565

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

Kendall would only be a solution if you think the reason for Labour's defeat was because the public had given a full consideration of Labour's policies, and decided they were too left-wing. I know the Tories want to believe that's the case, but the polling (obvious caveats) and reports from canvassers simply don't back that analysis up.

55% of English voters voted Conservative or UKIP, parties avowedly of the right. To win again, Labour needs to win approximately 20% of this vote

The claim that all UKIP voters are right-wing is just as much nonsense as the claims in 2010 that all Lib Dem voters were left-wing.

They voted for a right-wing party!

But it's still a non-sequitur to go from that to saying "Labour must move infinitely to the right to win those voters".

TCPoliticalBetting

Charles said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Was it really a bigger shock than 1992? In 1992 Labour thought they were heading for victory, not a coalition.

I don't remember a coalition in 1992?

.... that in 92 Labour thought they would be a majority and ended up with nothing whereas in 2010 Labour thought they would at least head up a coalition yet ended up with nothing.

Sunil_Prasannan

Danny565 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

ydoethur said:

Danny565 said:

Kendall would only be a solution if you think the reason for Labour's defeat was because the public had given a full consideration of Labour's policies, and decided they were too left-wing. I know the Tories want to believe that's the case, but the polling (obvious caveats) and reports from canvassers simply don't back that analysis up.

55% of English voters voted Conservative or UKIP, parties avowedly of the right. To win again, Labour needs to win approximately 20% of this vote

The claim that all UKIP voters are right-wing is just as much nonsense as the claims in 2010 that all Lib Dem voters were left-wing.

They voted for a right-wing party!

But it's still a non-sequitur to go from that to saying "Labour must move infinitely to the right to win those voters".

I saw these bar charts and thought of you

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/600283502966345729
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/600282994524463104

Sunil_Prasannan

Online polls put Labour ahead, phone polls put the Tories ahead, even in the final week of "herding"

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596866462972784641

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Pulpstar said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

1st?
Edit: Many thanks to whoever tipped Froome at 50/1 today as an e/w bet.

That was me

Chris delivers with a nice 2nd to land the place part

Indeed. Thanks again :-)

TCPoliticalBetting

Richard_Tyndall said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

FPT

Plato said:

That gives me an excuse... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Much loved "favourite" by some on this website , the Met Office,"Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead. "
"the odds of a very cold winter similar to 2009-10 fall to less than 1% over the same period (2100) "
BBC hack David Shukman is his usual partial self.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33417413
Unfortunately, few of us will be alive to laugh at their failures.

Thanks Plato. Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, "within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said. 20 March 2000

Oo Oo Don't forget from 2007
"Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
I love that one.

and we may even be entering a new cold spell
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity
But our infamous Met Office is a Sun Spot Denier. SpotSceptic?
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/23/sunspot-slump-wont-halt-warming-trend-met-office/

TCPoliticalBetting

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

TCPoliticalBetting

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

TCPoliticalBetting

People happy with the BBC welfare cuts.
1. Every national newspaper (yes even the Guardian but they won't admit it).
2. Every local newspaper.
3. Every non BBC tv broadcaster.
4. Every non BBC radio broadcaster.
5. Every non BBC news website.
etc

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/618074131460976640?lang=en-gb

Plato

I can imagine what this is going to be like... There's a Panorama special on the NHS - its programme description is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05y3fcb

"NHS: The Perfect Storm
Panorama

The NHS is facing a perfect storm, caught between huge increases in demand and the prospect of a massive £30 billion deficit. Without revolutionary change the NHS as we know it will become unsustainable. Filmed over six months in Liverpool, this Panorama special reports from the frontline of the battle to transform the NHS. It tells the moving stories of patients living in one of the unhealthiest areas in Britain, whose 'long-term' and 'lifestyle' conditions threaten to overwhelm the NHS. And also of the healthcare professionals trying to save them whilst at the same time fighting to fundamentally change the way their organisation works."

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

HYUFD

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

rcs1000

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

Sunil_Prasannan

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

Whereas in the UK, National Express now only runs the c2c franchise (former London, Tilbury & Southend lines).

Sunil_Prasannan

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

Right-Winging HERE!

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

Barnesian

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

Cyclefree

@David Herdson - "Germany has earned the right to be self-righteous."

No it bloody well hasn't. Germany had its debts forgiven. The rules were bent to allow it entry into the euro - its debt was higher than the amount permitted by the rules at the time. German politicians were no more honest with their electorate than Greek politicians have been with theirs about what is involved in a single currency. They refused to give the Germans a say. Germany did not veto Greece's entry for, doubtless, political reasons.

Germany has acted in its own interests at all times. That's what countries do. Nothing wrong with that of course, save when those countries start getting unbelievably moralistic about how they've done the right thing and no-one else has.

runnymede

The fawning Germany-worship of British Europhiles is always a bit distasteful, isn't it?

btw it looks like the ECB will be increasing haircuts on collateral posted for ELA so the screw will be tightening further.

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

It wasn't from 1997-2005 when the North, the Midlands and London all voted for Blair! Only the South and East Anglia are truly rightwing plus NI

Sunil_Prasannan

Cyclefree said:

@David Herdson - "Germany has earned the right to be self-righteous."

No it bloody well hasn't. Germany had its debts forgiven. The rules were bent to allow it entry into the euro - its debt was higher than the amount permitted by the rules at the time. German politicians were no more honest with their electorate than Greek politicians have been with theirs about what is involved in a single currency. They refused to give the Germans a say. Germany did not veto Greece's entry for, doubtless, political reasons.

Germany has acted in its own interests at all times. That's what countries do. Nothing wrong with that of course, save when those countries start getting unbelievably moralistic about how they've done the right thing and no-one else has.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts

GIN1138

Surely Greece will have to start firing up the printing presses soon and launch their own "parallel currency" even if they don't formally leave the Euro?

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

It wasn't from 1997-2005 when the North, the Midlands and London all voted for Blair! Only the South and East Anglia are truly rightwing plus NI

Enough of the Lefty straw-clutching, HYUFD! We're in 2015, now!

TCPoliticalBetting

Worth a viewing for insights into the emise of SLAB. e.g. I was unaware that the late John Smith had a festering problem in his local area.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b060dwn3/bbc-scotland-investigates-2015-6-the-fall-of-labour

Omnium

The House of Lords needs to be abolished. No wisdom has come from it in many years (I think for over 75, but I may be wrong).

In recent years the institution has merely been used as a reward for those that have made a political contribution. There are some awful appointments in the Lords.

Sunil_Prasannan

GIN1138 said:

Surely Greece will have to start firing up the printing presses soon and launch their own "parallel currency" even if they don't formally leave the Euro?

[When Queen Gorgo stabs Theron, his pouch falls to the floor spilling a bunch of Euro coins!]

Sunil_Prasannan

Omnium said:

The House of Lords needs to be abolished. No wisdom has come from it in many years (I think for over 75, but I may be wrong).

In recent years the institution has merely been used as a reward for those that have made a political contribution. There are some awful appointments in the Lords.

Far from trimming the House of Commons, it's the House of Lords that needs a reduction in numbers. Too top heavy. The Lords is the only Upper House larger than its respective Lower House.

rcs1000

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

How?

Flightpathl

Plato said:

I can imagine what this is going to be like... There's a Panorama special on the NHS - its programme description is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05y3fcb

"NHS: The Perfect Storm
Panorama

The NHS is facing a perfect storm, caught between huge increases in demand and the prospect of a massive £30 billion deficit. Without revolutionary change the NHS as we know it will become unsustainable. Filmed over six months in Liverpool, this Panorama special reports from the frontline of the battle to transform the NHS. It tells the moving stories of patients living in one of the unhealthiest areas in Britain, whose 'long-term' and 'lifestyle' conditions threaten to overwhelm the NHS. And also of the healthcare professionals trying to save them whilst at the same time fighting to fundamentally change the way their organisation works."

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

Plato, the NHS has just gone through £20 billion of savings and is embarking on another £20 billion. Health costs are always rising faster than inflation, but it hardly takes a genius to work out how impossible it is to find £30 billion of funding for the NHS. Health services everywhere are facing the same costs problems and are running deficits.

Barnesian

I'm interested in attending this conference but the website asks for £50 for the two days.

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

It wasn't from 1997-2005 when the North, the Midlands and London all voted for Blair! Only the South and East Anglia are truly rightwing plus NI

Enough of the Lefty straw-clutching, HYUFD! We're in 2015, now!

It is not Lefty straw clutching, it is simple political analysis that to be truly rightwing an area must always have elected mainly Tory/UKIP MPs

matt

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

And if Burnham was Labour leader, every area would be Conservative-free. Copyright every second slightly hysterical posting from you.

Omnium

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

Pulpstar

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

Was me again - but Good stuff

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

It wasn't from 1997-2005 when the North, the Midlands and London all voted for Blair! Only the South and East Anglia are truly rightwing plus NI

Enough of the Lefty straw-clutching, HYUFD! We're in 2015, now!

It is not Lefty straw clutching, it is simple political analysis that to be truly rightwing an area must always have elected mainly Tory/UKIP MPs

HYUFD But it is Lefty Straw-Clutching! At this election, the UK is now right-wing.

JosiasJessop

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

Whereas in the UK, National Express now only runs the c2c franchise (former London, Tilbury & Southend lines).

Yep. Let's hope they have learnt the lesson of the ECML issues they had.

BTW, it would be good if the UK authorities looked into irregularities into any of the contracts awarded to Abellio after this scandal:
http://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/Rail-News/scandal-hit-abellio-facing-inquiry-calls-into-its-franchise-bids

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

Was me again - but Good stuff

National Express only runs c2c (London Tilbury Southend) in the UK

Omnium

GIN1138 said:

Surely Greece will have to start firing up the printing presses soon and launch their own "parallel currency" even if they don't formally leave the Euro?

The Greeks have already printed the new Drachma -De la Rue in Ireland apparently.

This story either must be true (sensible future planning), or must be false (hostage to fortune). I can't decide.

Charles

Omnium said:

The House of Lords needs to be abolished. No wisdom has come from it in many years (I think for over 75, but I may be wrong).

In recent years the institution has merely been used as a reward for those that have made a political contribution. There are some awful appointments in the Lords.

My grandfather used to sit on the woolsack muttering "bollocks" under his breath each time a Bishop spoke. Just loud enough that they - but no one else - could hear him

That show an uncommon degree of wisdom

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

That's actually a surprise, I thought they would come to some kind of compromise agreement and keep the liquidity flowing at least until the new Greek deal had been rejected by Friday.

As I said yesterday, if there is a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of it, and having had a chat to a bunch of other analysts today they can't either. It is literally the worst of everything.

Omnium

Charles said:

Omnium said:

The House of Lords needs to be abolished. No wisdom has come from it in many years (I think for over 75, but I may be wrong).

In recent years the institution has merely been used as a reward for those that have made a political contribution. There are some awful appointments in the Lords.

My grandfather used to sit on the woolsack muttering "bollocks" under his breath each time a Bishop spoke. Just loud enough that they - but no one else - could hear him

That show an uncommon degree of wisdom

I like him already.

Charles

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

That's actually a surprise, I thought they would come to some kind of compromise agreement and keep the liquidity flowing at least until the new Greek deal had been rejected by Friday.

As I said yesterday, if there is a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of it, and having had a chat to a bunch of other analysts today they can't either. It is literally the worst of everything.

Invasion by Russia?

That would probably be worse. As would a dirty bomb in the Acropolis.

Cyclefree

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

viewcode

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

Forgive my repetition, but as I have repeatedly pointed out over the past year, Greece can print Euro notes. I am also informed that the Bank of Greece can make unauthorised Euro loans to the Greek banks without ECB permission, thus making them all better like. The latter is illegal although Greece will cite a national interest justification in court, hoping that Eurobureaucracy will enable them to print a l'outrance before they are stopped. They may have a point. I would hope that the ECB would stop them ASAP but Merkel is made out of three sheets of cowardice, so there y'go.

So yes, they can reopen the banks whenever they like. It will be a massive step (it's flagrantly illegal, for a start) and it will be a rather nasty end for the Euro, but in the end it's only Syriza's good sense and respect for the rule of law that's stopping them...

...so that's OK then...:-(

HYUFD

matt said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

And if Burnham was Labour leader, every area would be Conservative-free. Copyright every second slightly hysterical posting from you.

I never said that at all, even Blair did not make the South or East Anglia conservative free. There is nothing remotely hysterical about pointing out some areas in the UK always vote for rightwing parties, some for leftwing parties, some swing behind whichever party wins the nation as a whole!

isam

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

HYUFD
The UK as a whole is still Right-wing!
England as a whole is still Right-wing!

It wasn't from 1997-2005 when the North, the Midlands and London all voted for Blair! Only the South and East Anglia are truly rightwing plus NI

Enough of the Lefty straw-clutching, HYUFD! We're in 2015, now!

It is not Lefty straw clutching, it is simple political analysis that to be truly rightwing an area must always have elected mainly Tory/UKIP MPs

HYUFD But it is Lefty Straw-Clutching! At this election, the UK is now right-wing.

At this election I agree the UK was rightwing, in 2010 it was slightly rightwing, from 1997-2005 it was leftwing, who knows what it will be in 2020. If the UK was truly rightwing we would have had a Tory government at every election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918!

Cyclefree

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

That's actually a surprise, I thought they would come to some kind of compromise agreement and keep the liquidity flowing at least until the new Greek deal had been rejected by Friday.

As I said yesterday, if there is a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of it, and having had a chat to a bunch of other analysts today they can't either. It is literally the worst of everything.

Invasion by Russia?

That would probably be worse. As would a dirty bomb in the Acropolis.

Given the number of migrants landing in Greece from North Africa and what the EU prosecutor said today about there being IS people amongst them, a dirty bomb - any sort of bomb - is probably not an unappreciable risk.

handandmouse

O/T: Quite a bit of movement on Betfair Labour leader market today. For some reason Yvette Cooper has moved out to over 4, and Corbyn has come in to 13.

Kendall is for me the mis-priced candidate, still hovering around 5. I find it difficult to conceive of a situation where she wins. She alienated too much of the potential support right at the start of her campaign, cosied up to Murdoch and has been unimpressive in hustings.

Corbyn has strong potential to pick up supporters from people who voted Green, for far-left parties and from non-voters, as well as the odd 'Tory for Corbyn'. As seen in the earlier post here, his social media campaign is strong. Who's going to sign up as an affiliate to vote for Kendall? The CLPs clearly aren't enthusiastic. Corbyn's presence in the race puts paid to any chance Kendall has, as very few Corbyn supporters will give her a 2nd or even 3rd preference.

I've adjusted my positions and am solidly green on every candidate apart from Kendall, and still strongly long on Corbyn.

Omnium

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

Tick. And in particular your central contention of "If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty" I agree with wholeheartedly.

Did anyone know this? Yes! Everyone! If we took, as a random example, Luxembourg - then we'd find that every step of their representatives was focused on personal aggrandizement within a BIG Europe rather than mundanity (and incompetence) in their domestic domain.

Luckyguy1983

Flightpathl said:

Plato said:

I can imagine what this is going to be like... There's a Panorama special on the NHS - its programme description is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05y3fcb

"NHS: The Perfect Storm
Panorama

The NHS is facing a perfect storm, caught between huge increases in demand and the prospect of a massive £30 billion deficit. Without revolutionary change the NHS as we know it will become unsustainable. Filmed over six months in Liverpool, this Panorama special reports from the frontline of the battle to transform the NHS. It tells the moving stories of patients living in one of the unhealthiest areas in Britain, whose 'long-term' and 'lifestyle' conditions threaten to overwhelm the NHS. And also of the healthcare professionals trying to save them whilst at the same time fighting to fundamentally change the way their organisation works."

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

Plato, the NHS has just gone through £20 billion of savings and is embarking on another £20 billion. Health costs are always rising faster than inflation, but it hardly takes a genius to work out how impossible it is to find £30 billion of funding for the NHS. Health services everywhere are facing the same costs problems and are running deficits.

Spiralling health costs are largely due to appalling diet and lifestyles, which in turn are due to appallingly misguided public health advise from central government. The modern diet is producing unprecedented levels of chronic disease, especially cancer, which more and more people are getting. The situation won't improve until we face some home truths about what we're doing to our bodies.

HYUFD

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

nigel4england

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flightpathl said:

Plato said:

I can imagine what this is going to be like... There's a Panorama special on the NHS - its programme description is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05y3fcb

"NHS: The Perfect Storm
Panorama

The NHS is facing a perfect storm, caught between huge increases in demand and the prospect of a massive £30 billion deficit. Without revolutionary change the NHS as we know it will become unsustainable. Filmed over six months in Liverpool, this Panorama special reports from the frontline of the battle to transform the NHS. It tells the moving stories of patients living in one of the unhealthiest areas in Britain, whose 'long-term' and 'lifestyle' conditions threaten to overwhelm the NHS. And also of the healthcare professionals trying to save them whilst at the same time fighting to fundamentally change the way their organisation works."

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

Plato, the NHS has just gone through £20 billion of savings and is embarking on another £20 billion. Health costs are always rising faster than inflation, but it hardly takes a genius to work out how impossible it is to find £30 billion of funding for the NHS. Health services everywhere are facing the same costs problems and are running deficits.

Spiralling health costs are largely due to appalling diet and lifestyles, which in turn are due to appallingly misguided public health advise from central government. The modern diet is producing unprecedented levels of chronic disease, especially cancer, which more and more people are getting. The situation won't improve until we face some home truths about what we're doing to our bodies.

I work in the private medical insurance world and medical inflation is running at 9%+

Nothing to do with diet and lifestyle.

Danny565

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

Luckyguy1983

nigel4england said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flightpathl said:

Plato said:

I can imagine what this is going to be like... There's a Panorama special on the NHS - its programme description is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05y3fcb

"NHS: The Perfect Storm
Panorama

The NHS is facing a perfect storm, caught between huge increases in demand and the prospect of a massive £30 billion deficit. Without revolutionary change the NHS as we know it will become unsustainable. Filmed over six months in Liverpool, this Panorama special reports from the frontline of the battle to transform the NHS. It tells the moving stories of patients living in one of the unhealthiest areas in Britain, whose 'long-term' and 'lifestyle' conditions threaten to overwhelm the NHS. And also of the healthcare professionals trying to save them whilst at the same time fighting to fundamentally change the way their organisation works."

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Off topic. I am watching the BBC complain about the Govt spelling out where circa £700mn of welfare cuts will fall. Its ....on the BBC. Well the BBC kept saying how unfair it was that the welfare cuts would fall on the great unwashed.... now its the chattering classes that will be hit. Quite funny.

Plato, the NHS has just gone through £20 billion of savings and is embarking on another £20 billion. Health costs are always rising faster than inflation, but it hardly takes a genius to work out how impossible it is to find £30 billion of funding for the NHS. Health services everywhere are facing the same costs problems and are running deficits.

Spiralling health costs are largely due to appalling diet and lifestyles, which in turn are due to appallingly misguided public health advise from central government. The modern diet is producing unprecedented levels of chronic disease, especially cancer, which more and more people are getting. The situation won't improve until we face some home truths about what we're doing to our bodies.

I work in the private medical insurance world and medical inflation is running at 9%+

Nothing to do with diet and lifestyle.

Isn't medical inflation lead by demand?

Luckyguy1983

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

You don't make it through school with a name like Valerie without being made of tough stuff.

kle4

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

If not it shows just how committed the old school pro-Europeans can be!

tlg86

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

I think the issue isn't so much about foreign companies running our trains, but rather the possibility that state backed foreign companies (such as Abellio) can bid to run franchises but domestic state backed organisations cannot. That said, TfL runs the London Overground franchise and Boris has been quite vocal in wanting TfL to takeover more inner suburban services.

Barnesian

rcs1000 said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

How?

The same way they have today using ATMs. The government have already extended the bank holiday until Thursday so they won't be open for normal business obviously.

I must say I think the doom and gloom is overdone.

It is interesting to compare first hand reports from holiday makers and other on the ground in Greece with the pundits. The first hand reports are basically business as usual with ATMs working, sometimes with no queues, pharmacies open etc and a great welcome for tourists. But the doom and gloom pundits are putting the tourists off which is very bad news for Greece.

We'll see tomorrow who is right about the ATMs.

hunchman

Very telling interview with Simon Danczuk on channel 4 news tonight you can catch it on free view channel 13 in a few minutes. Gives an insight into just how traumatic the child sex advise inquiry really is.

rcs1000

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

So was there one world government when we were all on the gold standard?

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

89 apparently, the oldest living former French President

Richard_Tyndall

viewcode said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

Forgive my repetition, but as I have repeatedly pointed out over the past year, Greece can print Euro notes. I am also informed that the Bank of Greece can make unauthorised Euro loans to the Greek banks without ECB permission, thus making them all better like. The latter is illegal although Greece will cite a national interest justification in court, hoping that Eurobureaucracy will enable them to print a l'outrance before they are stopped. They may have a point. I would hope that the ECB would stop them ASAP but Merkel is made out of three sheets of cowardice, so there y'go.

So yes, they can reopen the banks whenever they like. It will be a massive step (it's flagrantly illegal, for a start) and it will be a rather nasty end for the Euro, but in the end it's only Syriza's good sense and respect for the rule of law that's stopping them...

...so that's OK then...:-(

But as RCS helpfully pointed out a month or so ago, they can only print low denomination notes - 5s, 10s and 20s. This severely limits their ability to print even a fraction of the Euro notes they would need to supply the banks.

hunchman

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

89 apparently, the oldest living former French President

His daughter was at the lse whilst I studied there.

MikeSmithson

Just used Betfair's "cash out" facility to go all green on the LAB leadership market. I win whatever happens.

JEO

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

So was there one world government when we were all on the gold standard?

No, but the gold standard collapsed as it was unsustainable.

Scott_P

@dft: You couldn't make it up. The euro sign in front of ECB building is being dismantled today for maintenance http://t.co/nHcMy4ovqr #ECB

Danny565

Ashley Walsh ‏@Ashley_Walsh 4h4 hours ago
If Kendall had the sense to tilt left a bit more, as Blair did in 1994, she might be doing a little better in winning over the pragmatists.

Ashley Walsh ‏@Ashley_Walsh 4h4 hours ago
Kendall's near-dogmatic Blairism means she risks alienating the old Labour right, which is certainly leading in Burnham's favour.

JEO

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic (but based on something on the previous topic):

One of the complains about rail privatisation has been that our railways end up being tun by foreign companies.

Well, it's a two-way street. British-based National Express recently won a second set of franchises in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11679105/National-Express-steams-further-into-Germany.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10331709/National-Express-wins-contract-to-run-German-trains.html

I think the issue isn't so much about foreign companies running our trains, but rather the possibility that state backed foreign companies (such as Abellio) can bid to run franchises but domestic state backed organisations cannot. That said, TfL runs the London Overground franchise and Boris has been quite vocal in wanting TfL to takeover more inner suburban services.

I don't understand how it's acceptable for a train line in Kent to be run by a Mayor the people of Kent don't get a vote on. He has a huge incentive to prioritise the London bit of the line over the rest of us, as they are his constituents and we are not. Its like the West Lothian question in some ways.

Speedy

Scott_P said:

@dft: You couldn't make it up. The euro sign in front of ECB building is being dismantled today for maintenance http://t.co/nHcMy4ovqr #ECB

We can only dream it never returns.

rcs1000

JEO said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

So was there one world government when we were all on the gold standard?

No, but the gold standard collapsed as it was unsustainable.

You should read Jim Grant. He argues, persuasively, that all fiat currencies inevitably succumb to destruction by the printing press.

The QE that we see today in Japan, the UK, etc. Could prove him right.

(We shall see...)

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

viewcode said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

Forgive my repetition, but as I have repeatedly pointed out over the past year, Greece can print Euro notes. I am also informed that the Bank of Greece can make unauthorised Euro loans to the Greek banks without ECB permission, thus making them all better like. The latter is illegal although Greece will cite a national interest justification in court, hoping that Eurobureaucracy will enable them to print a l'outrance before they are stopped. They may have a point. I would hope that the ECB would stop them ASAP but Merkel is made out of three sheets of cowardice, so there y'go.

So yes, they can reopen the banks whenever they like. It will be a massive step (it's flagrantly illegal, for a start) and it will be a rather nasty end for the Euro, but in the end it's only Syriza's good sense and respect for the rule of law that's stopping them...

...so that's OK then...:-(

But as RCS helpfully pointed out a month or so ago, they can only print low denomination notes - 5s, 10s and 20s. This severely limits their ability to print even a fraction of the Euro notes they would need to supply the banks.

They also only have the old plates for the €20 note.

hunchman

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:

@dft: You couldn't make it up. The euro sign in front of ECB building is being dismantled today for maintenance http://t.co/nHcMy4ovqr #ECB

We can only dream it never returns.

Absolutely. Incredible how these things always schedule at the most inopportune time!

Djokovic doesn't look mentally right to me. Almost as though the Wawrinka Paris defeat still bothering him?

Speedy

GIN1138 said:

Surely Greece will have to start firing up the printing presses soon and launch their own "parallel currency" even if they don't formally leave the Euro?

I'll be surprised if they did, only Tsipras can give the order and he's ideologically committed to europe, though I don't think he's prepared to die for the sake of it.

Anyway after the haircut by the ECB it means even in the case of a deal the greek banks can only have a maximum of another 12 billion euros in cash, so the greek banking system will probably cease to exist even in the case of a deal.
Let's hope Tsipras has really changed his mind and is preparing for the inevitable grexit.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@dft: You couldn't make it up. The euro sign in front of ECB building is being dismantled today for maintenance http://t.co/nHcMy4ovqr #ECB

What a ridiculous structure. Does any other central bank have a huge statue of their currency outside its doors? Unspoofable, as some might say.

hunchman

rcs1000 said:

JEO said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the badly.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

If you join a single currency designed to create a political union you lose your sovereignty. It's not as if no-one anywhere in the continent of Europe hasn't made this point. But then there are none so deaf as those that don't want to hear.

The Greeks - like many other countries - will need to decide whether they value democracy more than being part of the European project.

To me, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

So was there one world government when we were all on the gold standard?

No, but the gold standard collapsed as it was unsustainable.

You should read Jim Grant. He argues, persuasively, that all fiat currencies inevitably succumb to destruction by the printing press.

The QE that we see today in Japan, the UK, etc. Could prove him right.

(We shall see...)

No Fiat money system has survived a complete interest rate cycle of around 65 years throughout history. When interest rates rise globally from the start of October at the sort end we'll see just how stable or otherwise the current monetary system really is.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/618143333651718148

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

89 apparently, the oldest living former French President

I have a Bill Clinton type story to tell in how he lobbied for Greece to enter the EEC in 1981, it involves him, a famous greek actress, and the Greek PM who sent her to him.

It lives up to the stereotype of Frenchmen.

HYUFD

hunchman said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Former French President Giscard D'Estaing says suspend Greece from the Euro
http://www.france24.com/en/20150706-suspend-greece-euro-says-ex-french-president-giscard?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-07-06&dlvrit=66745

He's still alive?!?!?

89 apparently, the oldest living former French President

His daughter was at the lse whilst I studied there.

Never knew you mixed in such grand company hunchman

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

matt said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sunil an explosion of bar charts proving that the UK is right wing!

The North East, North West, Greater London, Scotland and Wales are leftwing on that graph. The East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are swing areas, ie they voted for Blair then Cameron. Only the Southeast, Southwest and Eastern areas are truly rightwing ie they even voted for Major in '97 and Hague! NI is also rightwing but it votes for the DUP not the Tories

And if Burnham was Labour leader, every area would be Conservative-free. Copyright every second slightly hysterical posting from you.

I never said that at all, even Blair did not make the South or East Anglia conservative free. There is nothing remotely hysterical about pointing out some areas in the UK always vote for rightwing parties, some for leftwing parties, some swing behind whichever party wins the nation as a whole!

I wonder if 2015 was something of a step-change. It's the first time since 1935 that right wing parties won 50%+ of the UK vote.

Speedy

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/618143333651718148

Kendall has 25% , yet she's certain to come last.

Pulpstar

I've stuck £20 of Liz up at 4.1 if anyone wants it :P

calum

Willie Rennie recently launched a LibDems are listening campaign:

http://www.libdemvoice.org/rennie-scottish-liberal-democrats-are-listening-46052.html

The recent Scottish Panelbase poll found that an overwhelming majority of voters believe Alistair Carmichael should resign - even 49% of GE2015 LibDem voters thought he should go:

Should resign (total): 71%
Should not resign: 14%
Don’t know: 15%

If the LibDems are indeed listening to the voters, on this issue they are choosing to ignore them. If the LibDems are serious about ever recovering in Scotland, they need to start walking the talk or they'll likely face virtual extinction in Holyrood 2016 and be lucky if they win a couple of list seats.

The latest from Shetland:

http://www.shetnews.co.uk/news/10978-did-cameron-hang-carmichael-out-to-dry

Richard_Tyndall

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

Surely Greece will have to start firing up the printing presses soon and launch their own "parallel currency" even if they don't formally leave the Euro?

I'll be surprised if they did, only Tsipras can give the order and he's ideologically committed to europe, though I don't think he's prepared to die for the sake of it.

Anyway after the haircut by the ECB it means even in the case of a deal the greek banks can only have a maximum of another 12 billion euros in cash, so the greek banking system will probably cease to exist even in the case of a deal.
Let's hope Tsipras has really changed his mind and is preparing for the inevitable grexit.

The appointment of Tsakalotos to replace Varoufakis might indicate a hardening of attitudes against Eurozone membership as he is apparently far more sceptical of the benefits of the EU than his predecessor.

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

JEO said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

Omnium said:

Barnesian said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Grexit:

It looks like the ECB is maintaining the EUR89bn ELA limit.

Which means banks won't open tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

I suspect they will.

I can't see that they can open.

They'll reopen when the EU capitulates, or when the new Drachma is announced.

I don't believe that the Greeks are really prepared for the latter. So EU capitulation is the only option, and that has to be accompanied by 'stormtroopers' - essentially I think that Greece will exit the Euro or never govern itself again.

, it seems a great shame that the way "Europe" has been constructed has led to this sort of choice. Governing on the basis of what you must do for your creditors rather than on the consent of the people is never going to particularly stable or happy, even if it is your own fault you got into the mess in the first place.

' A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion.’

So was there one world government when we were all on the gold standard?

No, but the gold standard collapsed as it was unsustainable.

You should read Jim Grant. He argues, persuasively, that all fiat currencies inevitably succumb to destruction by the printing press.

The QE that we see today in Japan, the UK, etc. Could prove him right.

(We shall see...)

The ECB also is doing QE, but the euro has bigger problems.

Anyway I believe a currency should adequately represent the demand for it in transactions but not more or less.
Too much or to little money supply disrupts the value of the transaction, because in effect too much money per transactions will cause money to lose it's value as a method of transaction, on the other hand too little money per transactions means that transactions will have to be limited.

Long story short, money obeys the laws of supply and demand but it's value is the inverse of maximum product demand.

End of lesson for tonight.
Goodnight.

RobD

calum said:

Willie Rennie recently launched a LibDems are listening campaign:

http://www.libdemvoice.org/rennie-scottish-liberal-democrats-are-listening-46052.html

The recent Scottish Panelbase poll found that an overwhelming majority of voters believe Alistair Carmichael should resign - even 49% of GE2015 LibDem voters thought he should go:

Should resign (total): 71%
Should not resign: 14%
Don’t know: 15%

If the LibDems are indeed listening to the voters, on this issue they are choosing to ignore them. If the LibDems are serious about ever recovering in Scotland, they need to start walking the talk or they'll likely face virtual extinction in Holyrood 2016 and be lucky if they win a couple of list seats.

The latest from Shetland:

http://www.shetnews.co.uk/news/10978-did-cameron-hang-carmichael-out-to-dry

That should read "while he had no proof, SNP logic would suggest" in the article, surely?