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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tsipras’ own goal is Cameron’s gain
If there were any doubt that David Cameron is a lucky politician, events in Europe this last week have again made the point. No sooner had he suffered a setback at the European Council, failing to win a chance of treaty reform, than the Greek government gives him (inadvertently, no doubt), a huge helping hand.
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I'm not sure, though, that a No would be a 'more drawn out and bloody affair' than a Yes. A No would mean that Greece becomes completely dysfunctional within a couple of days (it is already close, but people can survive for a few days). In such a scenario something has to give, and quickly. It would certainly be bloody, perhaps even literally so, but I suspect not very drawn out.
A Yes on the other hand would mean that the ECB keeps the life-support ticking over, pending the establishment of a new government by some means or another. Getting a sane government in place could take some time, and perhaps involve new elections. Even then, the negotiations would inevitably drag on: the previous deal has already been overtaken by events, and may not even be doable any more.
Instead, they have huge rival rallies in Athens within half a mile of each other, they cheer, and then they go home and prepare to vote. I think it's pretty damned impressive.
I'm not sure there are many implications for Britain at the moment, though. Syriza doesn't really have a recognisable counterpart in Britain, and people are filing it in the "Complex difficulties in foreign country" category. But David is correct that the pro-austerity view is winning by default here, since most of the Government's opponents are frankly ambiguous about it.
The meme that Syriza really want to leave the Euro really and are executing a cunning plan to make Greece leave by stealth, has taken hold over the past week as British Eurosceptics struggle to interpret Syriza's actions. AEP is certainly guilty of this interpretation.
For all I know, that interpretation might be true: Tsipras is crazy enough to do it. But, like the LD's nonexistent "incumbent advantage", that interpretation is a plausible hypothesis with no actual evidence to back it up. I think Syriza's motives and aims are what they say they are: they want to stay in the Euro and will not leave voluntarily.
Judging from what the Five Presidents are proposing*, the Greek situation is even more fuel for deeper fiscal integration. A system of larger scale fiscal transfers would curtail the imposition of such apparently sadistic austerity on eurostragglers in future, and would (based on the US experience at least) seem a sensible direction of travel if currency union is to work in the long term. But I can't see how Cameron's ability to sell the EU to his party is going to be enhanced by serious work on a common European treasury, for instance; even if it is restricted to the Eurozone, it marginalises those "semi-detached" countries which do not participate in it.
* As an aside, for those who see the EU as a bureaucratic nightmare, just how much ammunition is there in the fact it takes five presidents to decide on such announcements, and not one of them elected to do so?
This assertion is not correct: "Furthermore, at the last election, the main parties actively, if independently, advocating No polled 52.8% between them (you can’t call as disparate a group as the communist KKE, the radical leftist Syriza, the populist-nationalist ANEL and the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn a ‘coalition’ or ‘alliance’). By contrast, those advocating Yes, the conservative New Democracy, centrist Potami and social democrats Pasok only polled 38.5%. (The rest of the 2015 vote went to parties who failed to make it to parliament)."
The communist KKE is actively campaigning for people to spoil their ballots. They're portraying it as a choice between austerity by Tsipras and more austerity by the creditors. You can check for yourself here:
http://inter.kke.gr/
It is true that polls are showing that their supporters will largely back "no" but that isn't the party's official position. At the end of the day, the KKE isn't that relevant (anymore) but in a tight election, any vote may make a difference so let's get the facts straight.
As Syriza has amply shown, acting like a **** isn't a way to guarantee a win: it's a way to guarantee a loss.
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12
The mood of the German electorate means Merkel has no other choice
Also this: will it rain today?
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
'Tsipras may want to keep Greece in the Eurozone, he may not but if it is a No Germany will ensure Greece is kicked out'
Unfortunately, it's not Germany's decision.
Age:
18-25
71 No
20 Yes
25-34
59 No
26 Yes
35-44
34 No
53 Yes
45-54
48 No
36 Yes
55-64
44 No
47 Yes
65 and over
26 No
56 Yes
Job:
Private sector
54 No
34 Yes
Public sector
58 No
31 Yes
Unemployed
51 No
26 Yes
Students
83 No
13 Yes
Self-employed
39 No
50 Yes
Pensioners
31 No
55 Yes
Housewives
42 No
42 Yes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11715198/greece-crisis-live-no-yes-referendum-polls.html
HYUFD, it will be tight. Goodnight!
'In effect it is as Germany pays the bills'
Nope,Germany has lent 70 billion & France 50 billion & Holande has been making supportive noises all week,solidarity and all that good stuff.
I hope you are right but the entire project is built on an escalator you can't get off.
http://www.parapolitika.gr/article/305897/46-nai-47-ohi-deihnei-i-ereyna-tis-metron-analysis-86-yper-tis-paramonis-tis-horas
This is the key takeaway:
"With the data we had in our hands until yesterday we could say that the trend is decidedly in favor of the Yes. But now the trend is halted and reversed rather..."
Here is this evening's speech by Alexis Tsipras (translated into English):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aidRyCAbAao&feature=youtu.be
Notice the hug for his partner, Pannos Kamennos, from the national-conservative, populist ANEL party ("Independent Greeks")... Amazing how those two got in bed in the first place - in the UK it would be as if a party to the left of Labor entered into a coalition with UKIP.
At the end of the day, what will decide the outcome of this referendum is whether voters take it to be a vote on the Euro or on austerity.
The two main parties in favor of "YES" - PASOK and New Democracy - are part of the same corrupt and sycophantic clique that bankrupted Greece in the first place. It remains to be seen whether the electorate who voted them out of office will now follow their admonitions voiced in the Greek mainstream media beholden to a small group of oligarchs...
Either way there will be a summer of chaos in Greece. No means the banks cannot reopen, and there seems no sign of a new Drachma being prepared. Yes means a new set of elections with an unknown government.
For a lot of people Greece will be giving the impression of a plucky underdog being picked on by the larger countries who are also borrowing vast amounts of money but without the imposed pain. The actions of the EU have the stench of high handedness and a disregard for democracy.
Yes, SYRIZA might be a little crazy for some peoples tastes, I certainly wouldn't vote for them, but they were elected by the Greek people, on pretty much the same percentage as the Conservative government was elected in the UK, they have democratic legitimacy by any measure. They were also elected on a platform of attempting to have their cake and eat it, this was explicitly the will of the Greek electorate, we can hardly blame a political party for representing the views of their electoral and acting in accordance with their electoral mandate.
When SYRIZA they have proved unable to deliver the mandate on which they were elected they propose to go back to their electorate and ask for a new mandate (the referendum) and this is decried by the EU powers, and prominent members of this forum as ridiculous, are we so europhile that we are prepared to overlook democracy if its starts to look inconvenient.
We blame the EU for having scant respect for democracy, we talk repeatedly about the multiple referendums held in Ireland and Holland at the behest of the EU, and yet when we have a democratically elected government, following explicitly the platform for which they were elected, we call them insane, for shame!
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/image003.png
Europe is evolving, and outside Greece there is remarkable unity and a consensual approach.
No, its bullying, pure and simple.
Let us not pretend for a millisecond that is it was PODEMAS and Spain we were talking about, and not SYRIZA and Greece, the EU would be bending over backwards to let them have their cake and eat it. The ONLY reason the EU is taking such a tough line with Greece is because it feels safe it can contain a Greek default. A Spanish default would engulf the continent in a banking crisis that would destroy the Euro, so Spain would get what it wanted. Taking actions based on your opponents size rather than the strength of their argument is called bullying.
All this talk of Greece & the EU' ignores the other party in this - the IMF - who have Venezuela on their mind - a much bigger and nastier problem than Greece - pour encourager les autres......
And the 'consensual approach' could be seen as the smaller countries consenting to what Germany (and to a lesser extent France) want.
The Greece population have a democratic right to elect any government they want, to adopt any attitude they want on their behalf with external bodies. That does not mean they will get it. Although the only reason they wont get it is because they are small, if this argument was happening with PODEMAS and Spain they would have got what they wanted in milliseconds because the ECB knows Spain defaulting would bring the currency down and strongly suspecting Greece defaulting wont.
I am simply arguing that the Greek government is not "insane" or "crazy", but properly representing the views of their electorate as expressed through the ballot box, those view may not be realistic, but it is for the electorate to learn that and elect someone different next time if they so wish. In a similar way if the Greek government is unable to attain for the electoral what they asked for it is perfectly proper to go and ask them what they want instead.
This suggestion that the electoral is being badly served by their government is horseshit, the government is behaving exactly in accordance with the mandate they were given.
There is no democratic mandate across the EU to indulge Greece. Indeed Even the anti-austerity parties in other countries are not attempting to send money that way.
And the poorer countries that contribute to the IMF are entitled to their money back. Syrizia have made their bed and must lie in it.
I would be more sympathetic to the Greek government (I am very fond of the Greek people) if they needed assistance to transition to a more sustainable economy. At the moment giving Greece more money is like giving an alcoholic another bottle of whisky.
If the Euro cannot survive a few banks going bust for making poor decisions that says much more about the viability of the euro as a currency than it does about anything else. All that has happened is that Greece has increased its debt pile, and devastated its standard of living to support some businesses that rightly should have gone to the wall for the poor decisions they took.
I am a small businessman, I have been for 30 years, if I make a bad decision my business goes to the wall, but it seems if you are a big business your bad decisions are backstopped by the government, and yet you get to keep all the profits of your good (or lucky) decisions.
We have heard a lot about the emotional style of the Greek government. More about the emotional responses of Eurocrats would be more helpful.
But the Euro isn't the Euro, really. It's a form of German imperialism, an E-mark, less bloody than Panzers and stormtroopers, no doubt, but designed to achieve the same outcome. So let me ask you, David (and others of your kidney): which would you prefer to govern Greece - a democratically elected Syriza or a dictatorship (colonels, perhaps) that followed economic policies you like the look of?
I'm guessing Capitalism expects everyone to pay their taxes too? Unlike many Greeks.
Still, it's fun watching Syriza in action - promoting the kind of crazy economics and financial crackpottery that Milliband was twitching to impose upon the UK. We dodged a serious bullet there.
Absolutely you will, I never said otherwise... and your point is ?
(Capitalism expects people to act rationally in their own interest, so no, it doesn't expect everyone to pay their taxes unless the government makes it in their interest from rewards or penalties - IANAE)
I do think Yes is a stronger favourite than others do (backed it initially at 2/1), although it's still so close a No wouldn't be a shock.
I'm not sure I can see Greece leaving the EU.
Again as I have been asking all along, exactly how do you expect this to happen given that there is no legal way under the current treaties that Greece can be expelled either from the Eurozone or the EU?
Any attempt to push Greece out of the EU would be in breech of the TFEU given that it would need Greece itself, as a signatory, to agree to leave under article 50.
There is not even a mechanism for a country to leave the Eurozone, either voluntarily or being forced out.
When Greece had its own currency and its own central bank it had the right to debauch its currency and to print more money to pay for more public spending. There are consequences for such policies of course, even in a single country, but they had the indisputable right to do it.
When they cheated to get in the Euro they lost those rights. They no longer have their own currency to debauch. All the other users have the Euro have the right to protect their own currency. They do not have the right to print more money. If they borrow from their central bank they are not entering into QE on their own part, as we effectively did, but they are borrowing from others who have an equal right to say no.
They of course do have the right to argue that the northern Europeans have got it wrong, that their highly restrictive monetary policies have been completely disastrous not only for Greece but for most of the Mediterranean economies, that the more innovative approach to monetary policy in the US and the UK was a better way to respond to the credit crisis. But they have lost that argument and having lost it they are simply not entitled to impose their views on the other members.
The speech linked to below shows an astonishing level of delusion. This ultimately has nothing to do with democracy and the democratic will of the Greek people. It has everything to do with the requirement of rules if you are going to have a shared currency and a shared sovereignty. Greece either accepts those rules, however harsh, and remains in the club or it leaves and makes its own decisions, however disastrous.
I think Greece will vote yes, it is the rational thing to do. But whether they vote yes or no the economic damage these idiots have done will take decades to repair.
And I have to agree with the view that their protestations have included the implication it is anti democratic for Greece not to be given whatever it wants. It's a little more extreme than simply promising they can get that and the Greek people needing to learn they cannot, the rhetoric has been clear that Greeks voted no to austerity, therefore any action by creditors to not give in to Greek government demands is anti democratic. That is insane whether there is a mandate from the peolple to act that way or not, as it is in defiance of all logic. They can promise crazy things and people can vote for crazy things, but if it makes no sense it hat doesn't change just because people voted for it.
They are not being wholly irrational, they are doing what they said and what people wanted, but the craziness of an action need not be judged solely on if they support to try or it not but on whether objectively that view is reasonable.
Leaders are not supposed to mere weather vanes, sometimes they are supposed to carry people with them on issues, not just stick to proms that might not be viable and be proud when possibly avoidable messes occur.
The problem is that the Euro has created a new form of sovereignty which no one understands. Greece has more sovereignty than, say, a Canadian province (or even Scotland), but less than Turkey (or even Germany). This is why Brown was right to keep us out of it, and why no one in the present Government wants to revisit that decision.
As it is, we have a mess: either the Greeks impinge on German sovereignty or vice versa.
That is no longer the case. The support scheme ended on Tuesday. The drawing rights have been capped at what has already been borrowed. The Greeks are technically in default (people are being pusillanimous about actually calling it) with the IMF. This means that it would be open to the ECB not to accept the security that Banks have to offer to get liquidity. Greece is de facto out of the Euro right now. The only question to be determined is whether that exclusion is temporary or permanent.
None of this is non compliant with the treaties. It is completely compliant. The rights Greece has as a EZ member are subject to rules, rules they have broken. Unless they accept the terms on which the other members are willing to support them they will remain a non member of the EZ without access to the ECB.
*cough*currencyunion*cough*
We cannot pretend the Greeks have not presented as though failure to do what they want violates the will of their people and for that reason is unreasonable. It may well be unreasonable, but not on that basis. A 100% poll supporting syrizia in saying that would make the stance even more politically understandable, but for once it is right to say popular support does not make stance itself rational.
Whether people vote for someone or something to take an action has no bearing on if that action is objectively insane, or to be less charged, unreasonable, only if it would be politically insane or not.
Neither Yes nor No offer any end to suffering.
But I think this mistakes the character of the debate, its a big international game of chicken with a lot of brow beating on the side. Greece can see that the EU has a track record of fudges and can kicks, and its playing its poor hand as well as it can to get the best fudge it can. Reason and experience to date suggests the longer you hold out the better deal you get, this might be the time that it's different, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
It is a basic principle of international law that if a government is in a position to govern, it has a right to do so. Either that, or you go to war with it. And yes, I do think that to all intents and purposes the Greeks and the Germans are at war. We just haven't got to the bombs and bullets yet.
Otherwise, it's fortunate that the Bundeswehr's a bit short of tanks at the moment, hence their repurchasing of previously retired Leopards, and the Greeks can't afford the fuel to fight their way north.
Greece, Germany and all the others have the 'right' to say what they want to each other and attempt whatever they want including telling each other what to do. The argument for me is whether this makes the moralising grandstanding reasonable, particularly from syrizia who are the worst offenders in insulting their 'right' eclipses that of their creditors .
I say it isn't. All parties want the best deal and a right to try to get it, but not a right to whine not getting that deal is undemocratic, or at least not the right to be correct in that whine.
I don't think anyone would seriously argue that the over tight monetary policies of the EZ, largely as a result of German domination, have done a lot of damage over the last 5-6 years. Germany had a long history of having a "hard" currency and forcing internal changes when things got difficult. Almost every other member didn't and they have found it difficult to adapt.
I agree that neither yes nor no will end the suffering. Greece is deeply dysfunctional with payment of tax being a life style choice and the public sector corrupted into an easy living for the supporters of those in power. These things have to change if the people of Greece are going to have a European standard of living.
What is needed is a commitment to make those changes. If they make such commitments in a credible way support will be provided to help them get there. Not an easy path especially for those not used to paying tax or having to turn up to work to get their public salary and a public pension in their 50s but absolutely necessary.
None of this is non compliant with the treaties. It is completely compliant. The rights Greece has as a EZ member are subject to rules, rules they have broken. Unless they accept the terms on which the other members are willing to support them they will remain a non member of the EZ without access to the ECB.
Does that apply to everything?
Say Spain decides not to implement some farcical rule, just for example sake the light bulb directive section 1, sub-section 283, index 42b, are they then out of the EU?
The Greeks like Syriza and their leaders because they stand up for Greece, illogical or not. That's the same reason that Bob Crow was popular with his members. The other reason politicians are voted in is image, pure and simple, a fact that the committed supporters choose to ignore.
The British Labour party is a prime example.
A hundred speeches is worth less than a still photo. Michael Foot was renowned as an orator. Fat lot of good it did him – he looked like Worzel Gummidge. Churchill was an orator but in 1945, he looked and sounded like like yesterday’s man.
Gordon did well as a background boy as but once elected to PM, he turned into Mr Bean (Vince was right). Ed didn’t turn into Mr Bean, he was always Mr Bean and the Labour party refused to believe their own eyes.
Corbyn is Michael Foot, Cooper might become PM-like but currently she’s a hectoring mumbler. That leaves Burnham and Kendall. Burnham is a little nondescript but that image did Major no harm. Kendall is a definite runner but as always, Labour will concentrate on the words and not the image., so they’ll make the wrong decision.
Syriza may have illogical policies but they are popular because they have leaders with a good image and they're standing up for their voters.
Politics is much simpler than people make out.
And weirdly (or perhaps arrogantly on the part of the EU) there is no mechanism in the treaties for a country to either be pushed out or to voluntarily leave the Eurozone. They simply didn't conceive of it ever happening.
Demands on Greece may be unreasonable, may not, but are irrelevant to moral grandstanding of Greek government about will of their people being ignored as all sides have the right to try to get the best deal for those to whom they are accountable. Therefore syrizia has the right to spout off about a failure to do what they want as undemocratic, but that does not make it make sense, except as political cover and distraction, as the others have no obligation to do what syrizia want even assuming syrizia were right that it would be sensible to do so.
Say Spain decides not to implement some farcical rule, just for example sake the light bulb directive section 1, sub-section 283, index 42b, are they then out of the EU?
If countries do not comply with directives they can be and are taken to the ECJ or CJEU as it is now apparently called. They can be fined for non compliance and have to pay compensation to those that have lost out as a result of this breach of the Single market. A single market cannot work without rules and an ability to enforce them. We, along with every other country in the EU, signed up to this.
The position with a currency is similar. The right to use the ECB is subject to rules so that the system works for all of the members (at least in theory, in practice it undoubtedly works better for some than others). You cannot have a single currency without having a set of rules and the ability to enforce those rules in the same way as you cannot have a single market and no ability to ensure fair trade.
The focus on whether Greece is in or out of the Euro is completely misplaced. It is in many ways a lot simpler than our media indicate. At the moment, because they are non compliant, Greece does not have access to the ECB facilities. That is the price they pay for being in breach. It doesn't stop the Greeks from using the euros that they have in their own country. It doesn't directly stop the euro being their official currency. None of that will happen because the rules do not allow for it. What will happen is that they will continue to be excluded from the facilities of the ECB until they become compliant or reach an agreement with the other members.
The banks won't be opening on Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if some never unlocked their doors again.
The position with a currency is similar. The right to use the ECB is subject to rules so that the system works for all of the members (at least in theory, in practice it undoubtedly works better for some than others). You cannot have a single currency without having a set of rules and the ability to enforce those rules in the same way as you cannot have a single market and no ability to ensure fair trade.
The focus on whether Greece is in or out of the Euro is completely misplaced. It is in many ways a lot simpler than our media indicate. At the moment, because they are non compliant, Greece does not have access to the ECB facilities. That is the price they pay for being in breach. It doesn't stop the Greeks from using the euros that they have in their own country. It doesn't directly stop the euro being their official currency. None of that will happen because the rules do not allow for it. What will happen is that they will continue to be excluded from the facilities of the ECB until they become compliant or reach an agreement with the other members.
Many thanks for your reply, which to me demonstrates that a Single Market is completely unworkable.