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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tsipras’ own goal is Cameron’s gain

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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,053
    Moses_ said:

    Brand offers to relocate to Syria. Might be worth a PB whip round to buy him the ticket?

    An offer too good to refuse? Russell Brand says he'll move to Syria if someone buys him a first class ticket

    Russell Brand made a string of sick jokes about Tunisian beach massacre
    Comedian said he would move to Syria - but only if he can fly first class
    This comes after he denounced the minute's silence as 'total bulls***'
    Brand blamed Seifeddine Rezgui's murderous rampage on UK Government

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3149281/Russell-Brand-says-ll-Syria.html#ixzz3evVBLmRP

    Perfect symbiosis: Brand and the Mail thrive off each other. Personally, I'd ignore both.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,579
    EPG said:

    PClipp said:

    calum said:

    john_zims said:

    @calum 'Interesting interview with Tim Farron in today's Herald, the usual SNP bad rhetoric with no clear message or vision as to why anyone should be voting LibDem:'
    A good synopsis. '"Tim Farron sounds like a small boy saying rude words to attract attention from grown ups.'

    If I were a LibDem this interview would be enough to sway me to vote for Lamb and that's not just because I'm betting on him !!
    The Herald, eh? So of course it would be an objective report......
    Yeah, that would be the Herald that was against independence and is on the whole more critical than supportive of the SNP. I applaud your recognition of their lack of objectivity in these matters.

    Amusingly dim Tim shoots his mouth off about 'authoritarian' Edinburgh City Council for proposing to extend its CCTV system, all the while seemingly unaware that LD councillors supported it.

    Cllr. Andrew D Burns ‏@AndrewDBurns 1h1 hour ago
    @traquir ;-)
    dear oh dear @timfarron .. *please* do have a read at the relevant report:
    http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/47404/item_713_-_cctv_investment_project
    Edinburgh Lib-Dems backed it!
    Seems reasonable to me; Farron is not actually running as the continuity candidate...
    Perhaps then he shouldn't have specifically suggested it was a policy pursued by the SNP-Labour council? Or spout this sort of hypocritical guff?

    "Nobody who voted SNP wants to think they are an arrogant, authoritarian illiberal Big Brother entity. It is not something that right-thinking Scottish or British people of any kind would want to have thought of them. But that is who they are and only Liberals will challenge them".

    Except in a situation where they actually have some political authority to do so presumably.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    UNITE and GMB unions set to back Corbyn ' to "teach the party a lesson" for backing spending cuts.'
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11717428/Unite-and-GMB-join-forces-to-back-Jeremy-Corbyn-to-teach-party-a-lesson.html

    Just when Labour might be ale to exploit Heathrow/tax credits/whatever everything the public already fears about Labour is going to hit the headlines.
    It would obviously mean Corbyn would be easy prey for the Tories if he wins, but if one of the other 3 win it could actually help them put some distance between Labour and the Unions
    So many people do make that point - but I think those that do so live in a timewarp and are clearly well to the right of centre of mainstream opinion.. The electorate no longer see the unions as demons as back in the 70s or early 80s - rather than as not very successful barriers against slave labour. I suspect that the general public would be likely to take the view the the anti - union legislation has already gone too far and given far too much power to employers. On the same basis , measures to correct that imbalance are probably going to be popular - eg Burnham's commitment to getting rid of fees for Employment tribunals.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,870
    Moses_ said:

    Brand offers to relocate to Syria. Might be worth a PB whip round to buy him the ticket?

    An offer too good to refuse? Russell Brand says he'll move to Syria if someone buys him a first class ticket

    Russell Brand made a string of sick jokes about Tunisian beach massacre
    Comedian said he would move to Syria - but only if he can fly first class
    This comes after he denounced the minute's silence as 'total bulls***'
    Brand blamed Seifeddine Rezgui's murderous rampage on UK Government

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3149281/Russell-Brand-says-ll-Syria.html#ixzz3evVBLmRP

    The DM is every bit as disgusting and cynical as Brand.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,133
    EPG said:

    EPG said:


    Africa-Caribbean-Pacific countries have preferential trade terms with the EU under the Cotonou Agreement. The main losers from ag tariffs are big ranchers in North and South America, and poor African peasants would lose in a no-tariff situation.

    No the main losers are people like the fishermen of the Atlantic coast of Africa who have seen their governments sell fishing rights to the EU so preventing them from earning a living.
    This has nothing to do with the EU per se. It is a privatisation that redistributes welfare internally. Minus for fishermen, plus for whoever gets the privatisation revenues. Presumably, Spain (say) would have purchased these rights absent the EU.
    Not true. The EU has made payments to countries like Mauritania (477 million Euros in 10 years) for access to their fishing grounds for EU registered ships.
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    There's some linguistic comment on the Greek referendum question at Language Log: http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=19789#more-19789

    The main article is by a language professor, and many of the commentators at that site are also pretty expert. Some of them claim to have been involved with elections and referenda elsewhere.

    Among other points, the question refers to 'the Eurogroup', without translation, using the Latin alphabet. Not all voters will recognise this term, and many voters can't read the Latin alphabet at all. This will probably affect older voters the most.

    I've no idea if this will have enough effect to skew the results, but it might be a factor.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2015
    Reuters

    Greece’s European partners say the euro zone is better placed to minimise the impact on its vulnerable southern flank from a Greek exit than several years ago when the debt crisis exploded. But Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Europe stood to lose more than Greece.

    "If Greece crashes, a trillion euros (the equivalent of Spain's GDP) will be lost. It's too much money and I don't believe Europe could allow it," he told Spanish newspaper El Mundo
    .


    I note also that he has said he will resign if there is a yes vote.....
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,870
    I find this post rather silly. The last two paragraphs especially are awash with wishful thinking and schoolboy theorising.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,636
    Justin124 However, after they elected a Union backed leader in 2010 who was defeated in 2015 it would probably not be a good idea for them to elect the union backed candidate again
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    More CLPs supporting nominations

    Uddingston and Bellshill CLP: Burnham
    Glasgow Southside: Burnham
    Clackmanshire and Dunblane: Burnham
    Kingswood: Burnham
    Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn: Corbyn

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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,040
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:



    In a series of games, tit for tat is the rational strategy and it generally leads to cooperation and win/win after a stuttering start.

    Only in an infinite series.

    Otherwise the incentive is for both parties to cheat in the last round. And if you know your opponent is going to cheat in the last round, why wouldn't you cheat in the round before?

    It resolves into prisoner's dilemma.
    And the round before that. And so on, up to the present round.

    It reminds me of the story of the murderer sentenced to death by hanging who asked the judge for mercy. The judge replied that he would be merciful in that, although he would be hanged by a week on Monday, he wouldn't know the day before he was hanged. The judge would spare him that grim night of certain knowledge he was going to be hanged in the morning.

    The prisoner reasoned that he couldn't be hanged on the Monday as he would know for sure on the Sunday. But he couldn't be hanged on the Sunday either as he would know on the Saturday. And so on up to the present day. The prisoner concluded that he couldn't be hanged without breaking the promise the judge had made him. To his surprise, he was hanged on the Wednesday morning.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Justin124 However, after they elected a Union backed leader in 2010 who was defeated in 2015 it would probably not be a good idea for them to elect the union backed candidate again

    But that is surely a non sequitur. It was certainly not a high profile issue during the campaign and I have seen no evidence at all to suggest that people were put off voting Labour because of the unions. They have so little power now - many would wish to see them have more and would criticise Milliband for having made no commitment to redress the imbalance clearly apparent for the last 25 years.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    EPG said:

    PClipp said:

    calum said:

    john_zims said:

    @calum 'Interesting interview with Tim Farron in today's Herald, the usual SNP bad rhetoric with no clear message or vision as to why anyone should be voting LibDem:'
    A good synopsis. '"Tim Farron sounds like a small boy saying rude words to attract attention from grown ups.'

    If I were a LibDem this interview would be enough to sway me to vote for Lamb and that's not just because I'm betting on him !!
    The Herald, eh? So of course it would be an objective report......
    Yeah, that would be the Herald that was against independence and is on the whole more critical than supportive of the SNP. I applaud your recognition of their lack of objectivity in these matters.

    Amusingly dim Tim shoots his mouth off about 'authoritarian' Edinburgh City Council for proposing to extend its CCTV system, all the while seemingly unaware that LD councillors supported it.

    Cllr. Andrew D Burns ‏@AndrewDBurns 1h1 hour ago
    @traquir ;-)
    dear oh dear @timfarron .. *please* do have a read at the relevant report:
    http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/47404/item_713_-_cctv_investment_project
    Edinburgh Lib-Dems backed it!
    Seems reasonable to me; Farron is not actually running as the continuity candidate...
    Perhaps then he shouldn't have specifically suggested it was a policy pursued by the SNP-Labour council? Or spout this sort of hypocritical guff?

    "Nobody who voted SNP wants to think they are an arrogant, authoritarian illiberal Big Brother entity. It is not something that right-thinking Scottish or British people of any kind would want to have thought of them. But that is who they are and only Liberals will challenge them".

    Except in a situation where they actually have some political authority to do so presumably.
    The thing which I found most surprising about the Farron interview was that there was no mention of Carmichael, at the end of the day if you're only remaining MP in Scotland is under a dark cloud. I think the LibDems inability to face up to problems in their own backyard renders much of what they say increasingly irrelevant. At least Norman Lamb has the guts to give a view.

    https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/norman-lamb-coy-carmichael-future

    As far as I can tell Farron has avoided saying anything on the elephant in the room, in part this might be due to Carmichael having endorsed him !!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,636
    justin124 The day after he was elected every description of Miliband was prefaced with 'the union backed candidate' 'Red Ed' etc. It is not a great way to start making your first impression to the public and floating voters. If Corbyn became leader he would get the same treatment
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,870
    The extremism of David Cameron:

    There is no way that Britain was unaware of Al Qaeda’s leading role in the insurgency they were supporting and arming. Last month, US courts ordered the declassification of documents issued by the Defence Intelligence Agency – widely distributed within the US at the time and almost certainly shared with the British government - which highlighted the leading role of Al Qaeda in the Syrian insurgency back in August 2012.

    The documents even predicted the rise of a “Salafist principality” stretching from Syria into Mosul and Ramadi in Iraq – predicting, in other words, not only the formation of Islamic State, but also the precise extent of its territorial conquests. It also noted that such a principality was “precisely what the supporting powers to the opposition want.” Yet, following this report, the British state greatly increased its support to the rebels. Since then, the British government has been implicated in the supply of 75 planeloads of heavy weaponry to the insurgents via Croatia, much of which has ended up in the hands of Al Qaeda. Britain later successfully lobbied the EU to end its arms embargo on Syrian rebels, and directly provided millions of pounds worth of military equipment as well as contributing to a joint British-US $30 million program to train the rebels in public relations. If anyone ever wondered where ISIS learnt their slick video production techniques, this program may provide part of the answer.

    It should be no surprise, then, that another terrorism trial collapsed last month when Bherlin Gildo’s lawyers pointed out that the groups he was fighting for in Syria were being armed and trained by British intelligence.http://rt.com/op-edge/271663-david-cameron-terrorism-islam/

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    Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited July 2015

    Moses_ said:

    Brand offers to relocate to Syria. Might be worth a PB whip round to buy him the ticket?

    An offer too good to refuse? Russell Brand says he'll move to Syria if someone buys him a first class ticket

    Russell Brand made a string of sick jokes about Tunisian beach massacre
    Comedian said he would move to Syria - but only if he can fly first class
    This comes after he denounced the minute's silence as 'total bulls***'
    Brand blamed Seifeddine Rezgui's murderous rampage on UK Government

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3149281/Russell-Brand-says-ll-Syria.html#ixzz3evVBLmRP

    The DM is every bit as disgusting and cynical as Brand.

    Not to get sidetracked here but where did the young man that committed the atrocities in Tunisia get trained?

    Who caused all of the mayhem in Libya? Wasn't Libya largely free of Islamic terrorists a few years ago? How were they able to get a foothold there? Because F-UK-USA conducted an ill-conceived intervention in which it acted as the air force of a disparate band of "rebels" under "humanitarian" pretexts. So isn't it fair to blame Cameron (to some degree) for what happened in Tunisia?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,040
    edited July 2015
    New thread
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 The day after he was elected every description of Miliband was prefaced with 'the union backed candidate' 'Red Ed' etc. It is not a great way to start making your first impression to the public and floating voters. If Corbyn became leader he would get the same treatment

    I have no wish to see Corbyn elected but would seriously dispute that association with the unions has cost Labour votes for a good 20 years or so.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,636
    Justin124 It was the removal of Clause 4 and the introduction of OMOV by John Smith and Tony Blair that helped make the party acceptable to middle class voters in a way it had not been before
This discussion has been closed.