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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron
It might be a novel experience for the Tory Party to be split on issue other than than EU, but the third runway at Heathrow has the potential to be just as problematic. Today the Davies report has backed building a third runway at Heathrow. The above video shows Cameron in 2013 reaffirming a 2009 pledge not to build a third runway at Heathrow.
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Leadership
36% Andy Burnham
30% Yvette Cooper
19% Jeremy Corbyn
15% Liz Kendall
Deputy
40% Tom Watson
27% Caroline Flint
18% Stella Creasy
8% Angela Eagle
7% Ben Bradshaw
Regardless, it's a mess no matter what happens, and probably very very long mess at that, so hopefully it'll be entertaining at least.
It's an interesting possibility. For it to work, he'd have to beat the Conservative candidate in the first round and harvest a very high proportion of second prefs. Even that might not be enough.
The thing is, though, that Heathrow is a big issue in West London, but not necessarily elsewhere, and in particular in the Tory-friendly outer boroughs of the south and north of the London area.
I suspect it would simply end up as a Labour win if he did stand as an independent. Given that we are speculating on a series of eventualities to arrive at a Zac indy win, 16/1 doesn't look that generous to me.
Edit: In addition, of course, Sadiq Khan is against a new runway anyway.
Which airport has spare capacity? LGW!
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/
Could we have an advanced warning before a new thread is started please?
(Say a 10 minute warning)
Three times in as many days I've posted a considered( but not large) reply to a thread, only to find it wasted by a new thread.
I'm not the only one to do this of course, and frequently we see that the first set of posts on the new thread are all repetitions from the previous thread anyway, which is a waste.
So I still think he runs as a Tory even if he opposes Gov't policy on this one.
Which airport has most experience in operating runways? LHR
Which airport should get the next new runway?
Heathrow obviously!
Cameron needs to actually decide. There is no decision which will not upset some people. Needs to decide which criteria are the most important and just effing get on with it - we're already years behind
Interestingly, Labour seem to be making supportive noises, but whether Cameron can rely on them is moot.
Him running as the Tory candidate is certainly what's best from my financial perspective up to around high 3 figures of expected value or so !
Maybe a free vote on the bill when it comes up, given that Harperson seemed to be very much in favour of the new runway at PMQs earlier?
Building too much infrastructure at LHR would be like trying to pour too much tea into your favourite mug!
Happy to see I'm still listed in the acknowledgements for the new 4th edition of the Ian Allan "London Railway Atlas", compiled by Joe Brown
- Poor! Poor! Poor!
It all seems like an awful lot of upheaval and deterioration of quality of life for an awful lot of people. The benefits would have to be so compelling as to gainsay all objections. I'm not sure that high test has yet been met. But I'm open to persuasion.
It’s official - Tsipras is pressing on with Sunday’s referendum, and is calling again for people to vote no.
Tsipras says that a No vote is not a vote to leave Europe, but “a return to European values.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY2dhZ30axY
https://twitter.com/darrensituation/status/616192720290324480
As for people of Pakistani background, they should know the social problems back in Pakistan better than anyone. Presumably their forefathers came here to escape them.
If Greece doesn't stump up the repayment, no more IMF money for them.
The Germans have the whole EU political consideration to balance against pissing money up the wall, so the equation is slightly more complicated...
It's delusional rantings a la Chavez. Stock up on bog rolls ye Greeks it's a bloody long way to Bulgaria to barter for a pack of Andrex come Monday.
It's quite hard to see how you negotiate with that.
Rather than printing a new currency, could it just not spend nothing for a week on pay or pensions? Could Syriza resign and a new government be voted in within that time?
Say it does decide to print drachma and say 'we are paying you with this', what's to stop people refusing to accept it, revolting on the street and bringing the government down, following which the euro bailout is back on the table?
I only ask because Grexit is the boy who cried wolf. We've had capital controls and a default now. They are still using the euro.
The boy is crying legitimately about the wolf now, but the Greeks still have to give the order for it to bite, and they absolutely don't want to.
If the referendum goes ahead and the vote is for YES, then the EU has won, game set and match.
If the vote is for NO, then the EU loses more than the Greeks - they have more at stake in a bigger game - at least that is what the Greeks think.
If the EU concede a bit before the referendum and the referendum is called off, then the EU wins everything except a bit and the Greeks win just a bit.
The only big losing position for the EU is if it does not concede a bit and the vote is NO. Then the EU loses a lot when it could have lost only a bit.
You can lay this out in a 2x2 game.
The value of knowing in advance what the referendum result is is enormous. No doubt the players are conducting polls but keeping the results to themselves.
However, from Tsipras actions you can infer that they show a decisive YES result which is why he is asking for a figleaf and the EU is refusing. The odds on Betfair implies that Greece won't exit the Eurozone and that implies that Tsipras will capitulate and cancel the referendum (rather than it goes ahead and there is a NO vote).
Given Tsipras's strategy up to now, he will leave his capitulation until the last moment in the hope that the polls turn in his favour (in which case the EU will concede a bit to get the referendum cancelled.) But it is likely to all happen in a rush at the end, and accidents can happen.
If the EU want to de-risk this, they should give him his figleaf and not be driven by an emotional desire to crush him.
That is with all windows open. The little 'un is roaming free in just a nappy, whilst I am topless and scaring the neighbours, who think a Sasquatch has got loose.
So what causes Greece to pull the trigger?
1. the removal of emergency liquidity support for Greek banks, which means that they become insolvent. Of course, Tsipiras can order them to stay open (and become more insolvent - it's a Venezuela solution...)
2. but this means no banks in other countries will deal with Greek banks. How do they import oil? Or food?
It's a slow strangulation caused by being taken out of the monetary framework, that must inevitably end with Greece printing their own currency.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/440316/airports-commission-final-report.pdf
"I have to say that a third runway at Heathrow has the air of one of those things that all the experts tell you is absolutely essential but if we didn't get it they'd magically find some other way of making things work"
The problem is that too often, 'making things work' is a real messy hodge podge that barely works some of the time, reduces demand and hurts the industry. Scissors and stickytape rather than steel and welds.
Sometimes we need to bite the bullet. I'd favour Boris Island, but the report seems fairly conclusive (although the Gatwick option appears to give best bang for buck, unless I'm mistaken).
See the section "Post-Independence" here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Pakistanis
That puts paid to my insistence pre election that hardly anybody votes tactically, hundreds of thousands did. Since May Cameron has proven how utterly vacuous he is, I suspect his statement that he wasn't fussed on serving two terms was damage limitation, he clearly doesn't enjoy the job of PM.
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-cameron-encryption-back-doors-iphone-whatsapp-2015-7
Not only will it not work, it will probably kill off the UK as an emerging tech hub.
I do think that while the SNP fear was significant it would be a mistake to state definitively if it had a greater influence than the economic competence, which I underestimated at the time. The fear of an SNP labour alliance would not have been as effective if the Tories were not trusted economically. Yes it was about a worse alternative for many people, but it wasn't a worse alternative purely because of how awful the opposition were, another factor I underestimated, but because people did not fear the Tories despite scare tactics being tried against them. That's not liking them, but it's better than nothing and allowed their own attacks to work.
I suppose my challenge is around when that end will come. I'm not convinced it will definitely be next Monday, and they could stagger on for a few weeks.
The week after 20th July (ECB repay day?) seems the crunch to me. That's if there's a NO vote *and* Syriza survive in office.
RIP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Winton
Two terms as PM is enough - it's a pretty thankless job when considering the pathetic comments as from the fruitcake above.
I suspect you are letting your own views colour your judgement.
That's pretty damned good however you frame it, assuming you're grounded in reality, of course.
I think Cameron has done a good job in all sorts of ways, but that 'test' doesn't do much to prove it.
90% of Tory voters are satisfied with the way Cameron is doing his job.
I'm sure the Kipper type people will try and say satisfied is synonymous with crap or something.
Corrected now
But if you want to define 'average' as 'we're lucky to get a PM as good as that every half-century or so', then, yes, he's average.
'If we were a country on the rise we'd be building Boris Island without question. 24 hour flights and ultra-fast rail links to the centre, like Hong Kong.'
Completely agree, the expansion of Heathrow is just a temporary sticking plaster,the roads are already gridlocked most of the time.
As so many people are affected in one way or another by the expansion of Heathrow,Londoners should be given a referendum.
"Satisfactory" - School performance
"Very average" - Cricket
"Modest" - Horse racing.
I'm sure Greece will argue that cutting off funding falls foul of promoting financial stability, and therefore the question will come to: which has precedence? If you read it the Greek way, then the "no monetary financing" provision is clearly impossible. If you read it the German/ECB way, then you support financial stability so long as you don't fall foul of the other rules.
At the top of the second tier, with the election win of 2015 cementing him firmly in place.
Top tier is untouchable - Churchill for the legend and also Attlee and Thatcher.
Bottom tier - Brown, Eden, Heath, Brown, Douglas-Hume (due to events), did I mention Brown- are fairly unarguable as well.
The rest - Macmillan, Blair, Major, Callaghan, Wilson - can probably split into two with Major and Callaghan definite lower seconds.
LET THE BUNFIGHT COMMENCE
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-07-01/hottest-july-day-on-record-as-temperatures-reach-36-7c/
(Although the clause requiring self flagellation all the way from the airport to the signing desk was perhaps a bit old fashioned)
Dave isn't crap, he's just indistinguishable from a Orange Book Lib Dem. He doesn't want to be in the EU because its good for the country, he wants to be in because its a smoke screen of mediocrities he can use as cover for his lack of ambition.
The subtext of modern politicians of all colours seems to be "if we try really hard, if we are lucky we can be a little bit less shit"
Top PMs since the war
1) Ted Heath (took us in the EC and took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire)
2) Thatcher (signed the Single European Act)
3) John Major (most popular PM ever)
4) Cameron (kept Brown out of Downing Street and made same sex marriage legal)
5) MacMillan (winds of change)
6) Wilson
7) Callaghan
8) Blair
9) Douglas Home
10) Eden
11) Brown