I'm willing to bet reasonable sums of money that Jeremy Corbyn will not get close to a third of the first preferences. If I lose those reasonable sums of money I can then recoup them by betting heavily on a Conservative victory in 2020.
It's a third of preferences in the second round which is critical. In the first round he just needs to beat someone, probably Liz Kendall, which is possible, verging on likely.
This gives me the chance to re-post the poll of Labour councillors (I have no idea how representative they will be of the membership, though). Among those councillors, Kendall has both less supporters AND more outright haters than Corbyn does:
First preference for leader Burnham 36% Cooper 30% Corbyn 19% Kendall 15%
LAST preference for leader Kendall 48% Corbyn 44% Cooper 6% Burnham 3%
Is it me or does Tsipras really get a 'Statement to the Nation' on Greek TV every day? Anyone know whether there are referendum rules for equal coverage for 'Yes' and 'No'?
There probably are rules governing referenda, but like every other Greek rule, ignored.
Actually I now realise my question should have been; anyone know if they're actually printing the ballot papers? Presumably it's a logistical effort to get them out to all the islands...?
Well. Tsipras has said today in his ‘address to the Nation’ that a Referendum will take place next Sunday – A logistical nightmare at the best of times, let alone one at such short notice and with a geographical spread like Greece. – The printing of the ballot papers is probably the easiest bit, paying for them is another matter entirely.
Print the ballot paper on one side and a drachma note on the other....?
Brilliant idea – I’m sure there’s a flaw somewhere, but I can’t quite put my finger on it.
A glimmer of good news for SLAB and Scottish Tories, as Caroline Lucas by voting against FFA may well have shot and injured the Scottish Greens 2nd vote fox for Holyrood 2016, seemingly she was voting in accordance with Patrick H's wishes.
The SNP are certainly concerned that as they are now polling at 60%, SNP supporters voting tactically for the Greens on the regional list could lose them seats.
Instead of best/worst Prime Ministers, how about the best Prime Ministers we never had.
I'll be different, and go for Denis Healey.
David Owen would be one. Paddy Ashdown still intrigues me.
For different reasons, both Michael Heseltine and Norman Tebbit could have got the job in parallel universes too. And, the most obvious one, what if John Smith had survived?
Above all, William Hague. Shot his bolt too young, and it broke his will.
Obviously Enoch
The inspiration behind Thatchers monetary policy, a consistent record of voting for gay rights, an opponent of nuclear weapons, and of course had he been PM there would be almost no British people that want sharia law or flee to IS, no 7/7 and no beheading of Lee Rigby
Also no ukip!
He also argued for a defence strategy based rigorously on the national interest. He was against the American invasion of Vietnam from the start: “The point is that the Americans do not live in south-east Asia, whereas the North Vietnamese and their neighbours do.”
Instead of best/worst Prime Ministers, how about the best Prime Ministers we never had.
I'll be different, and go for Denis Healey.
David Owen would be one. Paddy Ashdown still intrigues me.
For different reasons, both Michael Heseltine and Norman Tebbit could have got the job in parallel universes too. And, the most obvious one, what if John Smith had survived?
Above all, William Hague. Shot his bolt too young, and it broke his will.
Obviously Enoch
The inspiration behind Thatchers monetary policy, a consistent record of voting for gay rights, an opponent of nuclear weapons, and of course had he been PM there would be almost no British people that want sharia law or flee to IS, no 7/7 and no beheading of Lee Rigby
Also no ukip!
He also argued for a defence strategy based rigorously on the national interest. He was against the American invasion of Vietnam from the start: “The point is that the Americans do not live in south-east Asia, whereas the North Vietnamese and their neighbours do.”
I would have more sympathy for the Tarmac over West London enthusasists if there was some recognition of a world outside the M25. BA has the kit to run effective long haul services from the regions but insists on everything (or almost everything) going through LHR. British Airways my arse. London Airways perhaps.
It's all going to change.
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
A glimmer of good news for SLAB and Scottish Tories, as Caroline Lucas by voting against FFA may well have shot and injured the Scottish Greens 2nd vote fox for Holyrood 2016, seemingly she was voting in accordance with Patrick H's wishes.
The SNP are certainly concerned that as they are now polling at 60%, SNP supporters voting tactically for the Greens on the regional list could lose them seats.
All part of the master plan to ensure the Tory Surge is nailed on.
I would have more sympathy for the Tarmac over West London enthusasists if there was some recognition of a world outside the M25. BA has the kit to run effective long haul services from the regions but insists on everything (or almost everything) going through LHR. British Airways my arse. London Airways perhaps.
It's all going to change.
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
Just think of the savings on APD...
I always look for routings that avoid APD but I can never be arsed to do it. Sigh...
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
'THE MIDDLE East’s population of 12 million Christians will be halved by 2020, if current demographic trends continue, writs World Review expert, Lord Alton. Christians made up a quarter of the Middle East’s population 100 years ago, now they are less than five per cent.'
I would have more sympathy for the Tarmac over West London enthusasists if there was some recognition of a world outside the M25. BA has the kit to run effective long haul services from the regions but insists on everything (or almost everything) going through LHR. British Airways my arse. London Airways perhaps.
It's all going to change.
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
Just think of the savings on APD...
I don't have much faith in IAG running a successful strategy. Good at lobbying, weak elsewhere. FWIW I've done the change in SNN approach pretty regularly with the added advantage of clearing US immigration. It's just that the U.S. airlines make BA look customer focused....
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
I think it depends on your circumstances. If you have €100,000 in savings, then no is going to royally screw you. If you are unemployed, then yes doesn't look like a good option
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
I think it depends on your circumstances. If you have €100,000 in savings, then no is going to royally screw you. If you are unemployed, then yes doesn't look like a good option
If you've got any sense, you've got $110,000 in USD or €100k lodged at Deutsche Bank or in Swiss Francs... and are using cash/overdraft for day to day expenses at the moment.
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
I imagine voting will be largely along class lines with middle-class people voting Yes.
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
I think it depends on your circumstances. If you have €100,000 in savings, then no is going to royally screw you. If you are unemployed, then yes doesn't look like a good option
If you've got any sense, you've got $110,000 in USD or €100k lodged at Deutsche Bank or in Swiss Francs... and are using cash/overdraft for day to day expenses at the moment.
I would have more sympathy for the Tarmac over West London enthusasists if there was some recognition of a world outside the M25. BA has the kit to run effective long haul services from the regions but insists on everything (or almost everything) going through LHR. British Airways my arse. London Airways perhaps.
It's all going to change.
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
Just think of the savings on APD...
I don't have much faith in IAG running a successful strategy. Good at lobbying, weak elsewhere. FWIW I've done the change in SNN approach pretty regularly with the added advantage of clearing US immigration. It's just that the U.S. airlines make BA look customer focused....
BA's pretty nice to me, so happy with their customer focus - American and United have come on a long way, while Delta is still the pits...
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
I think it depends on your circumstances. If you have €100,000 in savings, then no is going to royally screw you. If you are unemployed, then yes doesn't look like a good option
If you've got any sense, you've got $110,000 in USD or €100k lodged at Deutsche Bank or in Swiss Francs... and are using cash/overdraft for day to day expenses at the moment.
So that's what you did with your GE winnings!
Haha Nah With First Direct.
Not too happy to see HSBC's Greek exposure though tbh.
I have no idea how I'd vote in a Greek referendum. Ongoing austerity on the scale demanded by the Troika without any devaluation possible is going to be gradual long term carnage. Leaving the Eurozone without IMF support would be immediate sudden carnage.
Immediate sudden carnage is infinitely preferable. Get the pain out of the way early.
I think it depends on your circumstances. If you have €100,000 in savings, then no is going to royally screw you. If you are unemployed, then yes doesn't look like a good option
If you've got any sense, you've got $110,000 in USD or €100k lodged at Deutsche Bank or in Swiss Francs... and are using cash/overdraft for day to day expenses at the moment.
Since the start of 2015, around 20% of deposits left the Greek banking system... which means 80% is till there!
There's a lot I agree with in those. However, 5 is simply not true. While Greece cannot be evicted from the Eurozone by diktat, if its entire banking system disintegrates, and there is no way to pay for essential imports of oil or food, then it will have no choice but to print its own money. At which point is effectively leaves the Eurozone by its own hand.
The actions of Greek government, in insisting that a Euro exit is not on the cards, is incredibly irresponsible. Come Monday morning, assuming a No vote, Greece will need to move very quickly to rebuild its economy. It needs to have notes and coins available, it needs to pass legislation, and it needs to get bank systems on to the new currency.
This week should be preparation for this. Instead, this foolish insistence in the inevitability of staying in the Euro means Greece is woefully unprepared for next week. God help the Greeks.
I would have more sympathy for the Tarmac over West London enthusasists if there was some recognition of a world outside the M25. BA has the kit to run effective long haul services from the regions but insists on everything (or almost everything) going through LHR. British Airways my arse. London Airways perhaps.
It's all going to change.
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
Just think of the savings on APD...
I don't have much faith in IAG running a successful strategy. Good at lobbying, weak elsewhere. FWIW I've done the change in SNN approach pretty regularly with the added advantage of clearing US immigration. It's just that the U.S. airlines make BA look customer focused....
BA's pretty nice to me, so happy with their customer focus - American and United have come on a long way, while Delta is still the pits...
'THE MIDDLE East’s population of 12 million Christians will be halved by 2020, if current demographic trends continue, writs World Review expert, Lord Alton. Christians made up a quarter of the Middle East’s population 100 years ago, now they are less than five per cent.'
Goodness, I had no idea Lord (David) Alton was so young. Amazing to think he was an MP for 18 years, stopped being an MP almost 20 years ago, and is still only 64.
A glimmer of good news for SLAB and Scottish Tories, as Caroline Lucas by voting against FFA may well have shot and injured the Scottish Greens 2nd vote fox for Holyrood 2016, seemingly she was voting in accordance with Patrick H's wishes.
The SNP are certainly concerned that as they are now polling at 60%, SNP supporters voting tactically for the Greens on the regional list could lose them seats.
All part of the master plan to ensure the Tory Surge is nailed on.
I think Ruth D would be happy if they managed a gentle stroll past 20% in May, then things could get interesting !!
Comments
First preference for leader
Burnham 36%
Cooper 30%
Corbyn 19%
Kendall 15%
LAST preference for leader
Kendall 48%
Corbyn 44%
Cooper 6%
Burnham 3%
http://ww2.anglia.ac.uk/ruskin/en/home/news/conservatives-fear-kendall-flint-quake.Maincontent.0006.file.tmp/labour-polling-data-report-1-july-2015.pdf
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/01/why-we-recommend-a-no-in-the-referendum-in-6-short-bullet-points/
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/have-greens-just-killed-their-own-2nd.html
The SNP are certainly concerned that as they are now polling at 60%, SNP supporters voting tactically for the Greens on the regional list could lose them seats.
http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/6th-february-1971/15/j-enoch-powell-on-chomsky-and-vietnam
Once you have established that the issue is one of immediate and significant national security there is nothing you can't do.
Or want to do, rather.
I don't think Dave quite has Tone's driven belief but if this becomes the narrative it puts a lot onto the table.
Alexis Tsipras: IT'S AN HONOUR TO HAVE LIVED AT YOURS!
Air Lingus means that they are going to run a lot of the US flights via Dublin, with feeders from regional airports / Heathrow. The London folks will get back on the same plane after US customs clearance, but shouldn't be too much more of a hassle for other folk.
Just think of the savings on APD...
'THE MIDDLE East’s population of 12 million Christians will be halved by 2020, if current demographic trends continue, writs World Review expert, Lord Alton. Christians made up a quarter of the Middle East’s population 100 years ago, now they are less than five per cent.'
http://www.worldreview.info/content/christians-targeted-islamic-terror-groups-across-globe
Not too happy to see HSBC's Greek exposure though tbh.
Wasn't playing in that league either ;p
The actions of Greek government, in insisting that a Euro exit is not on the cards, is incredibly irresponsible. Come Monday morning, assuming a No vote, Greece will need to move very quickly to rebuild its economy. It needs to have notes and coins available, it needs to pass legislation, and it needs to get bank systems on to the new currency.
This week should be preparation for this. Instead, this foolish insistence in the inevitability of staying in the Euro means Greece is woefully unprepared for next week. God help the Greeks.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/616318513544843264
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