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This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely.
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http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/just-say-no-to-eu.html?m=1
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/23/uk-europe-migrants-austria-hungary-idUKKBN0P31ZB20150623
The Tories will probably stand still mid-term.
As the Smith plans outlined in the Queen's Speech to be put into legislation will have been passed into law by next year the SNP may begin to be judged more on its record. I would expect the SNP to be comfortably largest party, but if they lose a few constituency seats, maybe a higher Green vote on the list squeezes out SNP candidates and UKIP pick up a list seat or 2 at the SNP's expense they could lose their absolute majority. An SNP-Green deal would then be likely but it would not be the momenum boost the SNP would be looking for if they go backwards since May
Switching topic she asked if his comments on the BBC Scotland program was consistent with the evidence he had given to Chilcott. He said he didn't give any evidence to Chilcott. She then asked if was appropriate for him to make such comments when Chilcott is awaited. He replied "well, its what I think".
Total car crash. Bring back Peter Allen. Please.
England win toss and bat at Old Trafford:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/32958184
Scotlandthe Scottish Assembly, instead of (say) the Additional Member System?Was it to make betting more difficult for punters?
And this is supposed to show they are qualified to lead Labour?
And this is supposed to show they are qualified to lead Labour?
David Cameron spent 7 years as a PR man in broadcasting, which is para-political work. So he has spent 0. The lesson is it doesn't really matter.
Cameron was aged 39 17 years in Westminster since joining Conservative Research Department in 1988
Clarke was aged 65 35 years in Westminster since being elected an MP in 1970
Fox was aged 44 13 years in Westminster since being elected an MP in 1992
Davis was aged 57 18 years in Westminster since being elected an MP in 1987
Good luck connecting with WWC voters in the North......
246,469 members
9,115 registered supporters
3,788 affiliated supporters
In other words, 3 out of 4 candidates have spent 4 years or less 'outside Westminster' since age 21.
And this is supposed to show they are qualified to lead Labour?
Labour won almost all the seats in the North. They also won more votes than last time, despite losing Scotland! Has PB turned into an alternate universe where Labour won 8 seats at the last election because they weren't similar enough to the Tories?
The Greens do face a major hurdle to get to 2nd. Running the last TNS Holyrood 2016 voting intentions through the Scotland Votes calculator - the results:
SNP 73(+4)
SLAB 25 (-12)
Tories 17(+2)
LibDem 4 (-1)
Greens 10 (+8)
UKIP 0
Total Seats 129 (65 for a majority)
As the Scotland Votes seat calculator currently doesn't take account of regional splits, the above figures area at best a guide of likely trends based on current polling. Link below:
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
I think the SNP supporters will be able to judge whether they are in a list 55% and over region, so no incentive to vote Green. As you say in areas like mine, Stirling, the SNP list vote is likely to be 45% and assuming the SNP sweep all of the constituency seats these will be wasted votes. Will the " don't waste your list vote, recycle it to the Greens " take off ? I think we need to see more regional polling before we can tell.
If you don't need a job, the south of France is great.
I would give their chances at the moment something closer to 5% with the chances of Labour and the Conservatives both increasing by 10% each.
In Canada, it took roughly eight years for the BQ to go from tactical vote beneficiary to tactical vote loser. Their vote efficiency went from fabulous to appalling.
No its not much - but its better than any of the Labour young hopefuls....
Essentially since all the major parties have collapsed in scotland to their bare-bones membership, it means that the SNP block can have tops 65% of the vote.
There is a chance for the Greens to be second, however they need more than 15% to be given to them by the SNP on the list vote, but the SNP can't afford to give many votes away after they fall bellow 50%, so at max the Greens can get 15%.
Cooper I believe worked for the Independent from 1995-97 too and Burnham briefly for a trade magazine, otherwise they all worked in Parliament or as councillors, on campaigns or for pressure groups or think tanks or unions
As I have always said, the best choice for Greece is to leave the Euro with sensible economic policies. I.e., to reform pensions, increase labour market flexibility, and to privatise state assets with the benefit of a cheap currency.
The new Greek government had the option to go down this path, with the support of the IMF.
However, two things stopped SYRIZA following this strategy. 1. most Greeks want to keep the Euro, and SYRIZA was elected on a platform of "keep the Euro, lose the austerity". 2 discussions with the IMF made it clear that - in or out the Euro - there would be austerity and reform.
There are therefore two options open to Greece:
- continued reform and austerity inside the Eurozone, but in return an effective debt write off. (Previously, on offer was maturity extensions, interest rate cuts, an interest holiday, and repayments linked to GDP growth. Now a modestly sized explicit debt write-off is on the table.)
- a disorderly exit from the Eurozone without the support of the IMF.
Option 2, while superficially attractive, actually sucks. Firstly, default doesn't mean your debts go away, it merely means you stop paying them. And your creditors keep on accruing interest. And they sue you in courts in New York, and they attempt to grab your foreign assets. (See the impounding of an Argentine naval vessel by a hedge fund.) The IMF, theoretically at least, could seize Greek embassies and then sell them to recoup cash. Until the Greek government came to an agreement with its creditors of some kind it would be locked out of the financial system in a particularly unpleasant way.
Furthermore, the New Drachma would - fair to say - plunge 50% against the Euro. The price of fuel and basic foodstuffs would double. The effective value of people's savings would have dropped in half. For those on fixed salaries or living off savings, this would be a disaster. Greek firms who had Euro denominated liabilities would find those liabilities were now twice as high as they were previously. Almost certainly some of them would go to the wall.
Larry Summers warned that Greece risked becoming a failed state if it crashed out the Eurozone through a disorganised default. That is absolutely right. No matter how much you might hate the Euro, such an outcome would not be to the benefit of the Greek people.
Ultimately, Greece lacks an economically rational government. It has one elected on an impossible premise.
As I have forecast for some time: there is a deal. It is as good a deal as Greece was ever going to get. But as it involves reform and austerity it is unacceptable to a large chunk of SYRIZA. Therefore, I suspect there will either need to be a referendum in Greece, or new elections (if SYRIZA splits over this), or a package will be passed with the support of two thirds of SYRIZA plus all of Potemi and New Democracy.
60% of the Scottish population think Smith is INSUFFICIENT in terms of the powers they want devolved to Scotland.
The current Scotland Bill does not implement Smith, it is quite some way short (in some ways massively short) and given that the population already think Smith is insufficient, the even weaker Scotland Bill is destroying any chance the Union has.
But, hey, keep telling yourself that the party polling 60% is going to lose FPTP seats. Those of us who aren't buttoned up the back realise that it is not going to happen.
As for UKIP it is very unlikely that they will get a seat. Their current MEP certainly has nothing to help them gaining votes in the future.
There is a small chance that the SNP don't end up with an overall majority if the Greens get over 10% of the list vote but that would also mean that they starting taking the blame for the things going wrong that the Holyrood parliament are responsible for but most Scots will just blame the Tories in Westminster instead.
Or perhaps just an outbreak of mass idiocy.
For Tactical Voting to be in play the SNP need to be below 45% on the plural vote. Ideally for Tactical Voting to have a reasonable chance, this needs to be below 40%.
That just is not going to happen based on current VI. There are too few seats where the SNP are below 45% and probably ZERO seats they will poll below 40% for a Holyrood election. And even when there is a seat with the SNP polling that low, you need to have the Tactical Voting work - and there is a very strong chance that no-one will know whether the Tories or Labour are the best option in those very, very few Tactical possibility seats.
You need to actually have some voters for them to vote tactically in the first place.
Job done by 9.05 am.....
What is the debt write off figure as a % of greek govt. external debt? My fear is that even if a govt. could be formed to accept the deal that Greece may be turned into a failed state within the eurozone. The VAT rises are, in particular, really quite nasty...
And the SNP will not maintain its current vote share forever.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/12/icm-underline-labours-woes-affirm-smiths-lack-popularity/
Scotland is getting all the income tax powers etc Smith proposed
UKIP more than doubled their total in May in Scotland compared to 2010, it was not as big a jump as England and Wales by some distance but it was still there
But then you think the Scotland Bill is devolving meaningful tax powers so it's clear reason is wasted on you.
Tax powers are an All Or Nothing affair. Anything else is a worthless sop which can never be used.
Frankly: it's a smart change because well over half of restaurant meals in Greece are bought by tourists.
It can't collect taxes. It can't pay its bills. It is profoundly dependent on gifts or loans-that-will-never-be-repaid from other countries. Paul Mason who has gotten close to Syriza (they had to think about it, but eventually decided he wasn't too left wing for them...:-) has spotted that they haven't got the institutional skill to run a government. The corrupt parts of the civil service are running rings around them and they don't know how to work the uncorrupt parts. They are a protest group unprepared for the actual mechanics of government and show no sign of even trying. Varoufakis is working on making himself a media superstar (with much success) but has had zero success in his actual job as Greek finmin. It's like watching monkeys performing brain surgery...
People don't pay their taxes!
The equivalent seat for 2011 is Aberdeen South and North Kincardine.
SNP 41.7
Labour 19.6
Cons 17.4
Libs 14.2
If you think there is any chance, whatsoever of a successful tactical vote beating the SNP in this seat you really need to step away from the keyboard and seek help. Not only does one Loyalist need well over 65% of the other two parties votes, it is completely unclear which Loyalist is best placed to vote tactically for.
The one thing I would say against it is that you could have said the same about Italy in 1980 or Spain in 1995 (or 2007), yet they have managed to tackle (to some extent) the issues of corruption and tax evasion.
Italy and Spain both collect sensible amounts of taxes, and both now have some world class companies and thriving export sectors.
The issue is that you need a sensible government (which doesn't lie to the people) to achieve that.
(As an aside, the real benificiary of the Greek crisis is Spain. Tourist numbers were up 7% yoy in May - almost certainly a consequence of people not wanting to go to Greece because of their worries about trouble.)
Playing devil's advocate: Wouldn't it be easier to write off the debt (given that it was lent to a nation that couldn't afford it) and force Greece to become competitive and self sufficient, fully employed etc
Presumably VAT changes are considered the only viable change because of the inability of the state to collect non direct sales tax?
6% is the crucial number (technically it's 5.4% but unlikely to be that low in reality). There is no Region where UKIP will hit 5.4% let alone the more likely 6% they need to get a List seat.
For example they will almost certainly be excluded from any debates due to lack of votes last time (although keeping Coburn off the TV might be called a good thing for the Kippers hopes)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9447
Furthermore, there is no chance that the IMF or the private sector lenders will voluntarily write off debt. In the case of the IMF, they know there are Venezuela and Ecuador defaults coming later this year and therefore they know that caving over Greece will cause them bigger problems down the line.
So, the best thing for Greece would undoubtedly be a debt write-off, but nobody is going to support Greece through that without reforms to tax collection and to spending.
That transition would be easier outside the Euro, but SYRIZA has managed to piss off the IMF to the extent ("the worst country we've dealt with in the 60 year history of the IMF") that that option appears to be off the table.
Look, you are clearly an emotional Scot, but surely you can appreciate that the constant use of 'Loyalist' as a label for your opponents is crudely offensive and demeans any argument you make.
IMF pour encourager les autres aside, this seems to be becoming more of a crisis because of German reluctance to understand that they are an export led economy that has only thrived since the artificial lowering of their currency by union with states of weak political-economic structure...
Just Holyrood alone then take Edinburgh S SNP won 29%, Lab 27%, LDs 24%, Tories 18%.
East Kilbride SNP 48%, Labour 41.5%, Tory 7.6%, LD 1.6%
Glasgow Anniesland SNP 43.2%, Labour 43.2%, Tory 8.4%, LD 4.2%
Kirkcaldy SNP 45%, Labour 44.6%, Tory 7.2%, LD 2.9%
Renfrewshire N and E SNP 41.95, Lab 36.2%, Tory 20%, LD 2% etc
I know we criticise the polling, but I noticed this recently...
Conservative lead in Ashcroft polls for the year before the election
Look at the trend, it was clearly heading to a Conservative victory.
I think some pollsters tweaked their results needlessly.
http://www.lemonde.fr/
Interesting article, Mr. Price. Worth wondering whether 'winning' would be counted by seats or percentage of the vote. Scotland's hybrid system could make guessing the former tricky.
There are often Betting Without Hamilton/The Big Two/The Big Three on F1. I tend to avoid those, simply because there's more liquidity on markets like Podium and Top 6.
But they are already at 10% so who knows, if the SNP maintain a 55%+ Constituency share, with any luck enough people will realise the power of a Split Vote to really hurt Labour and to a lesser extent the Tories.
My biggest hope is the SNP can get both Orkney and Zetland and leave the Liberals completely wiped out. Liar Carmichael is doing a good job in helping them achieve this.
The SNP know that sufficient numbers of people believe this, or at least want to believe it, to make it a winning formula.
Which is quite interesting because the profane epithet "Separatist" is utterly incorrect - Scottish Independence is a dissolution of the UK not "separation" of Scotland.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/06/and-so-our-eyes-turn-to-may-2016/
I think the only exception to this rule will be the Greens
Historically more than a 25% tactical switch from one party to another would be very, VERY rare.
BTW, there is no chance whatsoever of the SNP losing EK, Anniesland, Kirkcaldy or Renfew N&E. None. The Labour vote is unlikely to be above 25% in any of them.
"They need 69 runs off the last seven overs, at a rate of 6.9. Even my maths can tell you that."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/32958184
They need 69 runs off the last seven overs, at a rate of nearly 10. Even my maths can tell you that.
If they score twice in these final five minutes.
And in the other game a team concedes three times when they're into stoppage time.
While in another group tomorrow both matches finish as 1-1 ties.
And then win the Toss of a Coin to be 4th best third placed team.
You are right.
There will not be significant tactical voting in 2016.
But - based on the experience of the BQ - there will be in 2020, and there'll be even more in 2024.
Even when academic research suggests that every time the Loyalists mentioned the Second Referendum, SNP support went up.
Please, let the Tories and Labour play that card. Unfortunately I don't think they will get the chance. Westminster's failure to deliver Devo Max means that teh Second Referendum will be on the ballot.
Before spending was low, and that was OK. Spending is high now.
Leaving the Euro solves the Greece competitiveness issue. It does not solve the inflexible labour market, poor government tax collection, excessive state ownership of assets, or any number of other issues.
Look: leaving the Euro - all things considered - is the best thing for Greece. But more than anything, it needs a government who understands economic reality. That is not this government.
In Canada it happened because the Liberals were a stable alternative while the Tories were going through a series of splits/mergers/reforms/alliances and being utterly unelectable.
Now arguably while the Liberals and Labour in Scotland are dead or, at best, looking like Canadian Tories, there is a problem - the Tories in Scotland may be a stable alternative but they are also Toxic in a way that the Canadian Liberals never were.
I doubt there will be as much tactical voting as you think. It will be more people rejecting the SNP at Scottish elections so long as they are held responsible for their record at Holyrood for things they are in charge of.
The slow demise of local services, due to in part the endless feeeze in council tax, will eventually catch up with them and their general mantra for centralisation will start to cost them votes outside the central belt if not in this election certainly the next one.