Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse CLP: Burnham and Watson Glasgow Anniesland CLP: Cooper and Watson Sefton Central CLP: Burnham & ?? Rutherglen CLP: Burnham & ??
If Clarke had been leader, there would have been a non-too-insignificant risk that he would have ripped the party apart on Europe.
Very good point.
A point that Clarke himself refers to in interviews - he is quite clear that he wouldn't adapt his policies on Europe to the party, and that he would have gone for a Euronationalist position on pretty much everything.
Disraeli By 2005 Iraq was the key issue in terms of shifting votes, Clarke could have offered a free vote on Europe, though ultimately his problem in 2001 was a mirror image of Kendall's, party members wanted a choice, not an echo of their opponents
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse CLP: Burnham and Watson Glasgow Anniesland CLP: Cooper and Watson Sefton Central CLP: Burnham & ?? Rutherglen CLP: Burnham & ??
Related to the topic of where Labour will go next.. On the subject of Conservative policy....
All the focus is on the £12Bn planned cuts in benefits (Boo Hiss etc)
It occurs to me that there are two further policies that Osbourne has
a) implemented in the past b) spoken of as future aspirations
that will be an interesting counter-balancing narrative.
Neither of which involve spending money (or reducing tax take)...
Go on then, wet our appetite...
1) he will increase the starting point of income tax again - 90% certain on this - paid for by modifying the higher rate bands. "Taking x hundred thousand working poor out of income tax altogether" - that't the pitch.
2) Minimum wage increase - with low inflation and profitability in economy, could easily put in an increase. My guess is in the 25p+ range. 70% certain on this.
The idea would (or will) be to sell that package as moving the system away from tax credits and welfare to to the employed poor, to letting them keep their own money.
Its going to be a tough sell for those who are used to quaffing at the cup of tax credits. At that bottom of the income scale they are shockingly generous. But tax credits will disappear as universal credit is rolled out.
Thats why UC is shockingly expensive, it wasn designed to roll back benefits/credits but to distribute them in a way that is more responsive.
I think many who are on big tax credits know they are on borrowed time with them, and enjoying them while they can.
Just chopping them is a policy without the political "pitch".
The deliberate idea behind tax credits etc was to make as many people beholden to the state as possible. Straight from the ideas of the Fabian Society....
no12 Had Clarke been Tory leader he would have won over many of the anti Iraq War voters who voted for Kennedy's LDs, as for Europe he could have allowed a free vote, the Tories were not in government so he would not have been signing any treaties
There's a real possibility Iraq war might not have happened. IDS was so pro-support of the war he pulled the party along with him, and gave Blair the majority he needed in Parliament. We might have seen what happened with Syria. A leader of the opposition ended up stopping the UK from getting involved in an invasion, and caused further questioning of the wisdom of aggression in Washington. Without Blair standing shoulder to shoulder, could Bush have defied the 'international community'?
If Clarke had been leader, there would have been a non-too-insignificant risk that he would have ripped the party apart on Europe.
Very good point.
A point that Clarke himself refers to in interviews - he is quite clear that he wouldn't adapt his policies on Europe to the party, and that he would have gone for a Euronationalist position on pretty much everything.
My favourite Clarke quote which I never tire of repeating as it shows the true nature of the man:
"I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe."
The idea that he could ever have led the Tory party is just ludicrous.
Disraeli By 2005 Iraq was the key issue in terms of shifting votes, Clarke could have offered a free vote on Europe, though ultimately his problem in 2001 was a mirror image of Kendall's, party members wanted a choice, not an echo of their opponents
Iraq was 2003. Clarke would have had two years of being pummelled by Blair.
"Clarke could have offered a free vote on Europe" - and Blair would have torn Clarke to shreds. "Look at hime! Not in control of his Party! Half of them want to buy him a beer, the other half want to stab him in the back!".
The Conservative Party has steadily become more eurosceptic since Major's day. He would have had even more bar-stewards to deal with.
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Greece makes last-ditch offer to avoid crashing out of the Euro ahead of emergency talks in Brussels tomorrow.
Alexis Tsipras made a final offer to EU leaders in conference call today He has refused to sanction more spending cuts in return for extra money Greece needs to borrow more cash by June 30 or it will default on its debts If it defaults it will be blocked from receiving any more loans from the IMF
notme Indeed, so the downfall of Gaddaffi and Saddam and the rise of ISIS all comes down to the votes of a few ex colonels and blue rinse ladies in the Tory leadership battle
Welsh Labour have 8 AMs set to retire next year. So they have a fairly good opportunity to renew themselves brining in some new faces or ideas.
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy. So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.
How would the 2015 result play out for them if those numbers were copied through? Sorry i dont pay enough attention to welsh matters.
Disraeli If Tory members had voted for him and MPs he obviously would have had a mandate and backing for a free vote policy, he would also have been more than a match for Blair at PMQs, certainly more than IDS was
Greece makes last-ditch offer to avoid crashing out of the Euro ahead of emergency talks in Brussels tomorrow.
Alexis Tsipras made a final offer to EU leaders in conference call today He has refused to sanction more spending cuts in return for extra money Greece needs to borrow more cash by June 30 or it will default on its debts If it defaults it will be blocked from receiving any more loans from the IMF
Greeks beg Merkel not to throw them 'overboard' as day of reckoning approaches German Chancellor is called upon to reach an "honorable compromise" as Syriza accuse Troika of being "pathological liars"
However, Paris and Berlin have warned Mr Tsipras that they will not discuss any detailed plans in Brussels, until the government first jumps the hurdle of securing an acceptable list of proposals with the Troika of the IMF, European Commission and ECB.
no12 Had Clarke been Tory leader he would have won over many of the anti Iraq War voters who voted for Kennedy's LDs, as for Europe he could have allowed a free vote, the Tories were not in government so he would not have been signing any treaties
There's a real possibility Iraq war might not have happened. IDS was so pro-support of the war he pulled the party along with him, and gave Blair the majority he needed in Parliament. We might have seen what happened with Syria. A leader of the opposition ended up stopping the UK from getting involved in an invasion, and caused further questioning of the wisdom of aggression in Washington. Without Blair standing shoulder to shoulder, could Bush have defied the 'international community'?
And ironically, if Blair had been barred from going into Iraq, he wouldn't've had such a plunge in popularity, and might have stayed PM for longer (still would be?).
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Surely paying off debts is supporting the Greek budget? It matters not who holds the debt.
Far from offering every consumer and business the benefits of a wider domestic market, after 40 years of membership, less than 5 per cent of UK companies directly export to the EU yet all are forced to bear the burden of its regulations,” the study says.
“The EU is not a free trade area but a customs union, and one which has spectacularly failed to deliver trade deals with rising economic giants like China.”
On Topic last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Yes.
"The UK banks have minimal exposure to Greek debt. French bank Credit Agricole has most in Europe, according to a recent report by JP Morgan, along with BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole, Natixis, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank."
Danny565 Brown would certainly have been in a less strong position to force him out, but had he had to back down over his pro Iraq War stance Clarke would likely have made big gains in 2005 and the momentum would have been with him not Blair
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Surely paying off debts is supporting the Greek budget? It matters not who holds the debt.
ITV news
New Proposals seem to be serious and sides not that far apart
Greek depositors give notice of withdrawal of up to a million euros tomorrow. Concerns banking system could collapse before deal reached.
Pure fun. Candidates will try to get as many as possible to try and show momentum. However, the turnout for the real postal ballot will be higher than those turning up to the nomination meeting. So they are a sample probably skewed towards activists rather than armchair members.
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse CLP: Burnham and Watson Glasgow Anniesland CLP: Cooper and Watson Sefton Central CLP: Burnham & ?? Rutherglen CLP: Burnham & ??
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Surely paying off debts is supporting the Greek budget? It matters not who holds the debt.
The loans needed by Greece are so they have the money to pay back the previous loans. Greece needs Wonga, not the IMF.
Welsh Labour have 8 AMs set to retire next year. So they have a fairly good opportunity to renew themselves brining in some new faces or ideas.
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy. So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.
Problems are building for Welsh Labour -- retirements often occur when elections look difficult, and the future looks hard.
First, Labour has been in power continuously since inception, and so it is hard to argue that they are not responsible for -- for example -- the problems at Betsi Cadwaladr (now the subject of a police investigation).
Second, hugely unpopular reorganisation of local government has been put forward by Leighton “Bulldog” Andrews, which will see massive redundancy (or “efficiency savings”) in local councils. The (Labour) leader of Flint Council reacted by saying “Welsh Labour needs urgent changes at the top”. The very councillors that Labour will need as foot soldiers during the election are seriously pissed off.
Third, the return of the Tory Government means that -- even if Labour are returned to power in Cardiff in 2016 -- they face the task of implementing a series of difficult budget cuts.
I suspect the retirements are a combination of a bleak slog during the election, and even bleaker slog afterwards with little money to spray around.
If either Plaid Cymru or UKIP get their act together, they could inflict real damage in the South Wales heartlands. If ....
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Surely paying off debts is supporting the Greek budget? It matters not who holds the debt.
The loans needed by Greece are so they have the money to pay back the previous loans. Greece needs Wonga, not the IMF.
Though the APR on the Greek debt is at very favourable rates, not Wonga rates.
Disraeli If Tory members had voted for him and MPs he obviously would have had a mandate and backing for a free vote policy, he would also have been more than a match for Blair at PMQs, certainly more than IDS was
"...he obviously would have had a mandate and backing for a free vote policy." not on Europe he wouldn't. It's part of the Tory Party DNA in this century. You need to understand that to be able to understand the modern Tory Party. Cameron does. He gets it.
"...he would also have been more than a match for Blair at PMQs, certainly more than IDS was" Better than IDS, certainly. Who wouldn't. More than a match for Blair - that's a bold assertion and was never tested, but I doubt that many will agree with you.
"That means acknowledging that the vast majority of the financial support given to Greece has gone to pay back banks rather than to support the Greek budget.
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
It matters not who holds the debt.
It does to Greek voters if the two principal leaders of the €uro, Hollande & Merkel appear to be acting to defend French & German banks from foolish lending decisions.....
Don't worry I'm not tipping Sol Campbell as the Tory candidate in Buckingham in 2020
Well seeing as that's off the thread list, I shall wait with baited breath... if it's a link to the Sky election night coverage (still unseen) then I may be a little pleased.... a gap in my 'portfolio' so to speak...
Boundaries for Welsh Assembly constituencies are the same of Westminster ones. Assuming they would all vote the same in the regional list section, Harry Heyfield calculated on another place the following seat breakdown : Labour 26 (-4 compared to 2011), Conservatives 15 (+1), Plaid Cymru 8 (-3), UKIP 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 3 (-2)
Welsh Labour have 8 AMs set to retire next year. So they have a fairly good opportunity to renew themselves brining in some new faces or ideas.
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy. So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.
How would the 2015 result play out for them if those numbers were copied through? Sorry i dont pay enough attention to welsh matters.
Boundaries for Welsh Assembly constituencies are the same of Westminster ones. Assuming they would all vote the same in the regional list section, Harry Heyfield calculated on another place the following seat breakdown : Labour 26 (-4 compared to 2011), Conservatives 15 (+1), Plaid Cymru 8 (-3), UKIP 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 3 (-2)
Welsh Labour have 8 AMs set to retire next year. So they have a fairly good opportunity to renew themselves brining in some new faces or ideas.
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy. So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.
How would the 2015 result play out for them if those numbers were copied through? Sorry i dont pay enough attention to welsh matters.
Thanks... Theres a lot to play for there. Is it realistic for the Cons to improve?
Disraeli If members had voted for him they would have done so accepting his plans for a free vote on the Euro, in his memoirs Blair makes clear it was Clarke, not Portillo, he and Campbell really feared and he would also have been able to make hay over Iraq at which point the divisions would have moved to Labour
YBardd Plaid had their peak in the 1999 Assembly elections, it has been all downhill from there, the reverse of the SNP who were comfortably beaten in the 1999 Scottish Parliament elections by Donald Dewar's Labour
Boundaries for Welsh Assembly constituencies are the same of Westminster ones. Assuming they would all vote the same in the regional list section, Harry Heyfield calculated on another place the following seat breakdown : Labour 26 (-4 compared to 2011), Conservatives 15 (+1), Plaid Cymru 8 (-3), UKIP 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 3 (-2)
Welsh Labour have 8 AMs set to retire next year. So they have a fairly good opportunity to renew themselves brining in some new faces or ideas.
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy. So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.
How would the 2015 result play out for them if those numbers were copied through? Sorry i dont pay enough attention to welsh matters.
Thanks... Theres a lot to play for there. Is it realistic for the Cons to improve?
PS. 600 seat boundary review is nailed on for Westminster.
On Topic last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
Given the McBride story, there is exactly no chance of an official Tory attack on those lines. Anyone who did try it would probably discover what Cameron is like when he is personally annoyed.
no12 Had Clarke been Tory leader he would have won over many of the anti Iraq War voters who voted for Kennedy's LDs, as for Europe he could have allowed a free vote, the Tories were not in government so he would not have been signing any treaties
There's a real possibility Iraq war might not have happened. IDS was so pro-support of the war he pulled the party along with him, and gave Blair the majority he needed in Parliament. We might have seen what happened with Syria. A leader of the opposition ended up stopping the UK from getting involved in an invasion, and caused further questioning of the wisdom of aggression in Washington. Without Blair standing shoulder to shoulder, could Bush have defied the 'international community'?
And ironically, if Blair had been barred from going into Iraq, he wouldn't've had such a plunge in popularity, and might have stayed PM for longer (still would be?).
Arent there papers that say that Blair would have resigned had he lost the vote?
5 retirements were announced last year. 3 of them this week.
Out of the last 3, I would say 1 fits your profile of retirement (Hart), the other 2 were fairly expected (Thomas and Davies). Out of the 5 announced last year, I wasn't shocked by any of them even if one could have made another term given the age profile.
From the study the Telegraph will be reporting this week:
The eurozone is not, and never has been, an optimal currency area, so it was always going to be poorly placed to cope with a major systemic shock. The institutional mechanisms to allow underperforming members to adjust are defective. The dominant member, Germany, has refused to voluntarily adopt a leadership role to assist fellow members in their adjustment to the shock – and in fact, politically, has forced the deficit/debtor members down a punishing road of internal devaluation and a refusal of any debt write-downs that would impose costs on the German banking system.
YBardd Plaid had their peak in the 1999 Assembly elections, it has been all downhill from there, the reverse of the SNP who were comfortably beaten in the 1999 Scottish Parliament elections by Donald Dewar's Labour
I agree with that. Plaid removed their most popular & successful leader in Dafydd Wigley.
My point is that the Labour vote is now very soft, and the performance of the Labour Government abysmal. UKIP or Plaid could do a lot of damage.
In a normal, properly functioning democracy, Labour should lose power, and renew themselves in opposition.
Unfortunately, Wales is not a properly functioning democracy, as there is no credible opposition to which Labour could lose.
On Topic last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
Given the McBride story, there is exactly no chance of an official Tory attack on those lines. Anyone who did try it would probably discover what Cameron is like when he is personally annoyed.
Disraeli If members had voted for him they would have done so accepting his plans for a free vote on the Euro, in his memoirs Blair makes clear it was Clarke, not Portillo, he and Campbell really feared and he would also have been able to make hay over Iraq at which point the divisions would have moved to Labour
Sure, the members might have voted for Clarke (narrowly), but a large number of the parliamentary party would have made his life miserable over Europe. You underestimate the passion over this (HINT: Think about Cameron's defeat over Syria - and he is one of the better handlers of the Tory Ultras!)
As for Blairs memoirs, I'm afraid I believe none of what he says after the "45 minute" claptrap of the dodgy dossier. Compulsively economical with the truth that one. And his oppo, Campbell.
Retirements obviously means loss of personal votes and risk of divisive selection contents. On the other hand, in some cases, I think local parties could benefit from the change, especially in supposed safe seats if the incumbent doesn't have any energy left and just carries on for the sake of it (or for the sake of the salary!). That's often the case leading to CLPs becoming moribund without any figure providing a sort of lead. And I guess that's the sort of risk South Wales CLPs need to avoid.
On Topic last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
Given the McBride story, there is exactly no chance of an official Tory attack on those lines. Anyone who did try it would probably discover what Cameron is like when he is personally annoyed.
What is he like?
From what I've heard, if you go against him on something that touches him personally it's not gentle or gradual.
A good reason to vote Yes: to stop British expats in Spain being forced to return to the UK.
Which idiot has dreamt up that fantasy?
BBC News just had a report on the subject.
They may have read Denis McShane in the Guardian (so it must be true,,,,)
British secession from the EU would bring with it any number of consequences, some of them foreseen, others less so. For exasmple, we’d need to apply for visas in order to take our holidays in France, says Denis MacShane....
On Topic last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
Given the McBride story, there is exactly no chance of an official Tory attack on those lines. Anyone who did try it would probably discover what Cameron is like when he is personally annoyed.
What is he like?
From what I've heard, if you go against him on something that touches him personally it's not gentle or gradual.
AndyJS Will probably be a Liberal-NDP agreement of some form, the latest poll from Forum had it NDP 34, Liberal 28, Tory 26 on June 16th, other polls have had the Liberals or Tories ahead, but the Tories are well down from their total at the last election
ESPN 30 for 30 is airing an interesting documentary, about 1 day - June 17, 1994.
It's the last competitive round played by Arnold Palmer in the US Open, the NY Rangers win the Stanley Cup, the opening ceremonies for the 1994 World Cup are under way, game 5 of the NBA Finals is played between the Rockets and the Knicks, and OJ Simpson is charged with the murder of his wife and Mr Goldman.
no12 Had Clarke been Tory leader he would have won over many of the anti Iraq War voters who voted for Kennedy's LDs, as for Europe he could have allowed a free vote, the Tories were not in government so he would not have been signing any treaties
There's a real possibility Iraq war might not have happened. IDS was so pro-support of the war he pulled the party along with him, and gave Blair the majority he needed in Parliament. We might have seen what happened with Syria. A leader of the opposition ended up stopping the UK from getting involved in an invasion, and caused further questioning of the wisdom of aggression in Washington. Without Blair standing shoulder to shoulder, could Bush have defied the 'international community'?
And ironically, if Blair had been barred from going into Iraq, he wouldn't've had such a plunge in popularity, and might have stayed PM for longer (still would be?).
The vote was on an amendment and said there was no case without another UN resolution, it took place on 15 March. The govt motion said they were working with the UN. It was not a vote on war or not and would not have affected Bush. At the time of the debate a mass of troops were already in place, the ultimatum already given, the invasion began on 19th March. The Conservatives had no desire to undermine our troops about to take part in military action and of course they were trusting in the information the govt were giving them. Bush had offered to Blair to go through with the invasion without UK ground troops if Blair found that politically impossible. So the vote was not affecting his thinking. Its a neat trick to blame the war on IDS...
Disraeli So what, Clarke would have been elected by his MPs and members and have a mandate and by midway through the Parliament it would be Blair in trouble with his backbenchers on Iraq, say what you like about Blair he did know how to win elections and all the polling evidence was Clarke was the most popular Tory leadership candidate with the public
Newport West have selected Jayne Bryant (who had the second spot on Euro 2014 list)
Selections taking place right now
Islwyn and Caerphilly have been twinned and they will select 1 man and 1 woman Cynon Valley is selecting from an Open shortlist (therefore no drama this time unlike in run up of GE) Delyn got an AWS
New vacancies
Neath, Gower and Llanelli.....as they are pretty close to each other, I guess 2 of them will be twinned to select 1 woman/1 man combo.
Disraeli So what, Clarke would have been elected by his MPs and members and have a mandate and by midway through the Parliament it would be Blair in trouble with his backbenchers on Iraq, say what you like about Blair he did know how to win elections and all the polling evidence was Clarke was the most popular Tory leadership candidate with the public
1) Are you really telling me that Tory eurosceptics (who would never have voted for Clarke as leader and are viscerally opposed to the EU) would have meekly followed the rabid pro-european Clarke without causing trouble. Sorry HYUFD, that's just not credible. That would be a total character change to how these hooligans behave.
2) I am always ready for fresh data so that I can test and possibly change my views. Could you post a link to this polling data which shows that "..Clarke was the most popular Tory leadership candidate with the public". (I'd be really interested in the detailed figures)
As a Labour party member, i am fearful of a bloodbath in the 2016 Assembly elections. I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months. Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
I see Adam Price is coming back into Welsh politics to contest Carmarthen East & Dinefwr next year.
Yes, he will win Carmarthen East and will be the next party leader after his followers oust Leanne, so I guess he may be secretly hoping that Plaid do not have a successful election in 2016.
As a Labour party member, i am fearful of a bloodbath in the 2016 Assembly elections. I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months. Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
Disraeli So what, Clarke would have been elected by his MPs and members and have a mandate and by midway through the Parliament it would be Blair in trouble with his backbenchers on Iraq, say what you like about Blair he did know how to win elections and all the polling evidence was Clarke was the most popular Tory leadership candidate with the public
Clarke didn't take IDS seriously and his take me or leave me attitude to the members was only going to get one response. If he'd really fought for it I think he could have won the members ballot. Then the fascinating alternative history is what would have happened if Clarke had led the Tories against the Iraq war.
Its by no means certain that the Conservatives would have backed Blair on Iraq under Clarke as they did under IDS. It was possible a real weakness that we didn't have a 'big political beast' with real previous experience like Clarke around the table asking the questions before that Iraq vote.
Disraeli By 2005 Iraq was the key issue in terms of shifting votes, Clarke could have offered a free vote on Europe, though ultimately his problem in 2001 was a mirror image of Kendall's, party members wanted a choice, not an echo of their opponents
FlightpathL Had the leader of the opposition opposed the war, along with probably even more Labour backbenchers and the LDs it would probably have been defeated, US polling showed Americans were reluctant to go into Iraq without support from at least 1 major ally
As a Labour party member, i am fearful of a bloodbath in the 2016 Assembly elections. I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months. Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
It is about as much a vote winner as the Poll Tax. I have not talked to anyone who has a good word to say about it, in North Wales or South.
I agree that Labour are facing .. if not a bloodbath ... at least the most difficult Welsh Assembly election to date.
As a Labour party member, i am fearful of a bloodbath in the 2016 Assembly elections. I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months. Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
To be honest Andrea, I havent studied the figures closely yet but anything less than 26 would be awful. am still in shock after the general election debacle. I worry greatly that UKIP will take seats off Labour. Their scores throughout Wales were consistent and if replicated will almost guarantee 8 seats, although I have to say Plaid may be as big losers in the Valleys as Labour. And what about Llanelli? Could UKIP actually win the consituency. Not impossible with their GE figures. Over the next few months I will study the figures and of I have anything constructive to add I will post accordingly.
As a Labour party member, i am fearful of a bloodbath in the 2016 Assembly elections. I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months. Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
ukip is a spent force whose supporters are looking elsewhere for salvation.The trust Farage lost in resigning and unresigning and the resultant ferrets in a sack internecine warfare amongst others at the top have them at under 10%.Many will have gone into the Tory column but many will just go back to NV,revealing a high % of those who voted for them being NOTAs who used to plump for the LibDems.It seems what's left is largely core ex-BNP support so the strategy which defeated them can be picked up for use with these dregs.
"A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months.”
This reminds me of Rhodri Morgan’s farcical statement:
"We have to think about how Wales should not be penalised for not having had a referendum on independence, not having North Sea Oil and gas, and not having the troubles and strife that Northern Ireland has had," Mr Morgan said. "We didn't put the UK through the mincer, so we should be rewarded for that, not penalised for it,”
The only possible reaction is that Rhodri Morgan (and by extension most of Welsh Labour) actually don’t understand how politics works.
In politics, you don’t get things by rolling over and letting your tummy be tickled.
Thanks. The perverse thing with UKIP is that they can take votes away from Lab resulting in taking seats away from others. Labour have regional lists in only 1 region and I guess UKIP is set to get at least 1 regional seat in all of them
To be honest Andrea, I havent studied the figures closely yet but anything less than 26 would be awful. am still in shock after the general election debacle. I worry greatly that UKIP will take seats off Labour. Their scores throughout Wales were consistent and if replicated will almost guarantee 8 seats, although I have to say Plaid may be as big losers in the Valleys as Labour. And what about Llanelli? Could UKIP actually win the consituency. Not impossible with their GE figures. Over the next few months I will study the figures and of I have anything constructive to add I will post accordingly.
That shows what a disaster it was that IDS was elected. Sadly I think Clarke's attitude was neither 'the party comes first' nor 'the country comes first' but 'the party deserves all it gets if it doesn't elect me'.
Ybardd Mid term of a Tory government and having comfortably won most seats in Wales at the general election Welsh Labour will certainly do better than 1999 when Plaid won 17 seats and Labour 28, or indeed 2007 when Labour won 26 seats
Ybardd Mid term of a Tory government and having comfortably won most seats in Wales at the general election Welsh Labour will certainly do better than 1999 when Plaid won 17 seats and Labour 28, or indeed 2007 when Labour won 26 seats
I think valleyboy is correct. I think Labour will do well to get to 26.
FlightpathL Had the leader of the opposition opposed the war, along with probably even more Labour backbenchers and the LDs it would probably have been defeated, US polling showed Americans were reluctant to go into Iraq without support from at least 1 major ally
The conservative party were not opposing the war though was it - the build up had gone on for months. There was the small matter of alleged WMD to be considered and there were indeed UN resolutions despite the requests of the rebel amendment. It's facile to blame, if there is a blame, the war on IDS. The votes were not on a declaration of war anyway. Nor was it a vote of confidence in the govt or Blair - despite the labour rebellion, Blair survived and won an election. The govts own motion was passed even more comfortably. This was a motion urging Saddam to comply with UN resolutions.
Thank You for the link. :-) The figures for Portillo were surprising.
"Disraeli If he had been elected by Tory members they would have had no choice,"
In the 2001 Conservative Party leadership election the MPS votes were as follows: Clarke 59 (35.5%) IDS 54 Portillo 53
The members vote, after Portillo was eliminated was: IDS (60.7%) Clarke (39.3)
...which is a pretty clear defeat.
Even if we follow the counterfactual scenario and Clarke had won the members vote, then he clearly had a lot of opposition in the parliamentary party as shown by the MPs vote. It is wrong to expect loyalty from the Conservative backbenchers in the 2001-2005 Parliament.
The biggest evidence for this is the that the man who beat Clarke in the members vote WAS REMOVED BY A COUP!
Neither could Clarke have offered a free vote on Europe because Blair would have played on his inability to unite his party.
Counterfactual arguments are all very well, but your scenario has too many holes in it.
YBardd Labour won 25/40 seats in Wales at the general election, the Tories 11, Plaid 3, the LDs 1. There are 60 Welsh Assembly seats of which Labour won 30 in 2011, the Tories 14, Plaid 11, the LDs 5. So Labour won 62% of Welsh seats at the general election, 50% at the Assembly election, on that basis Labour would be hoping for gains even with the list
Flightpathl But had Clarke been leader he would have insisted the inspectors be given more time
I suspect he would also have made some diplomatic overtures to Chirac and Schroeder in contrast to IDS scuttling round Washington looking to ingratiate himself.
A good reason to vote Yes: to stop British expats in Spain being forced to return to the UK.
Which idiot has dreamt up that fantasy?
BBC News just had a report on the subject.
They may have read Denis McShane in the Guardian (so it must be true,,,,)
British secession from the EU would bring with it any number of consequences, some of them foreseen, others less so. For exasmple, we’d need to apply for visas in order to take our holidays in France, says Denis MacShane....
Although why France would require visas from us, and not, for example, Nicaragua, is unclear....
What utter utter bulls##t. On a UK passport we can travel to most other "developed" nations in the world with no need for visas to go on your hols. At most, it is normally a landing card on the plane in order to give to immigration upon arrival.
US you now have to do an online ESTA, which you do once every 2 years, but that is all under the guise of anti-terrorism, nothing to do with visas etc. And actually it is easier to do that once, rather doing the old system of multiple landing cards with the poorly worded questions and those damn spacing that often so poorly printed it didn't line up properly.
Are the Swiss required to fill in masses of paperwork in order to get a visa to pop across the border to France for a holibob?
Disraeli Yes, but Clarke was 5 MPs ahead of IDS, IDS only one ahead of Portillo, so if Clarke had won he would have had a mandate from both MPs and members which IDS lacked. Although as you suggest and the poll figures point out while Clarke had a big lead with voters as a whole amongst Tory voters and Tory MPs the IDS and Portillo combined totals were more than the Clarke total, which was why IDS won in a straight head to head as the same applied with Tory members
WG Yes, and probably Charles Kennedy too, of course even the leaders of some Anglosphere nations like Canada and New Zealand opposed the war so it was by no means a given we would go to war, in Spain the government was ultimately defeated in 2004 for backing it and if the US had relied on Australia alone to back it, as they had done in Vietnam too, that would not have exactly inspired confidence
So, (and I'm finding this discussion really interesting) if we follow your assumption that Clarke continues with the Tory Party behind him, we come to the 2005 Election? What does he put in the 2005 Tory manifesto? a) "We will allow a free vote of Conservative MPs on the EU Constitution", or b) "We support the EU constitution"
What was actually in the manifesto: "We oppose the EU Constitution and would give the British people the chance to reject its provisions in a referendum within six months of the General Election. We also oppose giving up the valuable freedom which control of our own currency gives us. We will not join the Euro."
What is the likely result? a) Conservatives go backwards and lose seats b) Conservatives gain seats to cut Labour majority c) Conservatives gain seats to create hung parliament, Labour biggest party d) Conservatives gain seats to create hung parliament, Conservative biggest party e) Conservatives gain seats and gain a majority f) Conservatives landslide
A free vote as I said and he promised in the leadership campaign. The most likely result would have been c or d, Clarke was more popular in the polls than IDS or Howard and he would have won over some voters who voted LD in opposition to Iraq, the Tories and Labour could well have been neck and neck on about 35% or so with the LDs a little lower on 19%, he may have lost a few votes to UKIP but that would have been more than outweighed by the votes he gained
Thanks. The perverse thing with UKIP is that they can take votes away from Lab resulting in taking seats away from others. Labour have regional lists in only 1 region and I guess UKIP is set to get at least 1 regional seat in all of them
To be honest Andrea, I havent studied the figures closely yet but anything less than 26 would be awful. am still in shock after the general election debacle. I worry greatly that UKIP will take seats off Labour. Their scores throughout Wales were consistent and if replicated will almost guarantee 8 seats, although I have to say Plaid may be as big losers in the Valleys as Labour. And what about Llanelli? Could UKIP actually win the consituency. Not impossible with their GE figures. Over the next few months I will study the figures and of I have anything constructive to add I will post accordingly.
I was passed an interesting regional voting breakdown the other day. Studying this may give a clue as to who will win and lose the list seats. I will have a good look at them shortly and post if i come up with anything interesting.
OK then, on to the next stage. Let's assume that Clarke has done well enough to stay on as leader if option c), and certainly enough if option d)
Sooner or later the debate on the EU constitution comes up. - On a free vote, half his party will vote against Clarke. If he leads a government, it goes down. (Yes, Labour WILL play games on that) - If he insists on party unity then half his party will still vote against him.
Either way, Clarke loses and he has now split his party.
Comments
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse CLP: Burnham and Watson
Glasgow Anniesland CLP: Cooper and Watson
Sefton Central CLP: Burnham & ??
Rutherglen CLP: Burnham & ??
The deliberate idea behind tax credits etc was to make as many people beholden to the state as possible. Straight from the ideas of the Fabian Society....
"I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe."
The idea that he could ever have led the Tory party is just ludicrous.
"Clarke could have offered a free vote on Europe" - and Blair would have torn Clarke to shreds. "Look at hime! Not in control of his Party! Half of them want to buy him a beer, the other half want to stab him in the back!".
The Conservative Party has steadily become more eurosceptic since Major's day. He would have had even more bar-stewards to deal with.
You bet....
The new EICIPM but with the opposite fate..
Aren't most of these banks German & French?
Greece makes last-ditch offer to avoid crashing out of the Euro ahead of emergency talks in Brussels tomorrow.
Alexis Tsipras made a final offer to EU leaders in conference call today
He has refused to sanction more spending cuts in return for extra money
Greece needs to borrow more cash by June 30 or it will default on its debts
If it defaults it will be blocked from receiving any more loans from the IMF
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133343/Greece-makes-ditch-offer-avoid-crashing-Euro-ahead-emergency-talks-Brussels.html#ixzz3djRi1T8t
You're going to love it.
Don't worry I'm not tipping Sol Campbell as the Tory candidate in Buckingham in 2020
[Tsipras kicks IMF mesenger down the well]
German Chancellor is called upon to reach an "honorable compromise" as Syriza accuse Troika of being "pathological liars"
However, Paris and Berlin have warned Mr Tsipras that they will not discuss any detailed plans in Brussels, until the government first jumps the hurdle of securing an acceptable list of proposals with the Troika of the IMF, European Commission and ECB.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11689460/Greeks-make-last-ditch-Merkel-appeal-as-day-of-reckoning-approaches.html
“The EU is not a free trade area but a customs union, and one which has spectacularly failed to deliver trade deals with rising economic giants like China.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11689895/Britain-needs-to-get-a-better-deal-from-Brussels-or-leave-the-EU-major-new-study-reveals.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03348/ADAMS20150622_3348855b.jpg
last thing the tories will harp on about is Coopers health problems. They will want her to stay n post. Those problems will be meat and drink to all in the Labour Party when they seek to remove her.
"The UK banks have minimal exposure to Greek debt.
French bank Credit Agricole has most in Europe, according to a recent report by JP Morgan, along with BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole, Natixis, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank."
http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/01/31/would-grexit-destroy-the-investment-case-for-barclays-plc-hsbc-holdings-plc-lloyds-banking-group-plc/
New Proposals seem to be serious and sides not that far apart
Greek depositors give notice of withdrawal of up to a million euros tomorrow. Concerns banking system could collapse before deal reached.
First, Labour has been in power continuously since inception, and so it is hard to argue that they are not responsible for -- for example -- the problems at Betsi Cadwaladr (now the subject of a police investigation).
Second, hugely unpopular reorganisation of local government has been put forward by Leighton “Bulldog” Andrews, which will see massive redundancy (or “efficiency savings”) in local councils. The (Labour) leader of Flint Council reacted by saying “Welsh Labour needs urgent changes at the top”. The very councillors that Labour will need as foot soldiers during the election are seriously pissed off.
Third, the return of the Tory Government means that -- even if Labour are returned to power in Cardiff in 2016 -- they face the task of implementing a series of difficult budget cuts.
I suspect the retirements are a combination of a bleak slog during the election, and even bleaker slog afterwards with little money to spray around.
If either Plaid Cymru or UKIP get their act together, they could inflict real damage in the South Wales heartlands. If ....
"...he would also have been more than a match for Blair at PMQs, certainly more than IDS was"
Better than IDS, certainly. Who wouldn't. More than a match for Blair - that's a bold assertion and was never tested, but I doubt that many will agree with you.
Con 30.1%
NDP 29.1%
Lib 28.0%
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
Out of the last 3, I would say 1 fits your profile of retirement (Hart), the other 2 were fairly expected (Thomas and Davies). Out of the 5 announced last year, I wasn't shocked by any of them even if one could have made another term given the age profile.
They had 8 retirements also in 2011.
The eurozone is not, and never has been, an optimal currency area, so it was always going to be poorly placed to cope with a major systemic shock. The institutional mechanisms to allow underperforming members to adjust are defective. The dominant member, Germany, has refused to voluntarily adopt a leadership role to assist fellow members in their adjustment to the shock – and in fact, politically, has forced the deficit/debtor members down a punishing road of internal devaluation and a refusal of any debt write-downs that would impose costs on the German banking system.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686707/The-eurozone-must-either-integrate-or-disintegrate.html
My point is that the Labour vote is now very soft, and the performance of the Labour Government abysmal. UKIP or Plaid could do a lot of damage.
In a normal, properly functioning democracy, Labour should lose power, and renew themselves in opposition.
Unfortunately, Wales is not a properly functioning democracy, as there is no credible opposition to which Labour could lose.
Just wondering would there be the same level of outcry if somebody held a Black Heritage night, perhaps in African American History Month?
As for Blairs memoirs, I'm afraid I believe none of what he says after the "45 minute" claptrap of the dodgy dossier. Compulsively economical with the truth that one. And his oppo, Campbell.
Retirements obviously means loss of personal votes and risk of divisive selection contents. On the other hand, in some cases, I think local parties could benefit from the change, especially in supposed safe seats if the incumbent doesn't have any energy left and just carries on for the sake of it (or for the sake of the salary!). That's often the case leading to CLPs becoming moribund without any figure providing a sort of lead. And I guess that's the sort of risk South Wales CLPs need to avoid.
British secession from the EU would bring with it any number of consequences, some of them foreseen, others less so. For exasmple, we’d need to apply for visas in order to take our holidays in France, says Denis MacShane....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/19/what-would-happen-if-britain-left-the-eu-consequences-of-exit
Although why France would require visas from us, and not, for example, Nicaragua, is unclear....
It's the last competitive round played by Arnold Palmer in the US Open, the NY Rangers win the Stanley Cup, the opening ceremonies for the 1994 World Cup are under way, game 5 of the NBA Finals is played between the Rockets and the Knicks, and OJ Simpson is charged with the murder of his wife and Mr Goldman.
I remember it well.
Bush had offered to Blair to go through with the invasion without UK ground troops if Blair found that politically impossible. So the vote was not affecting his thinking.
Its a neat trick to blame the war on IDS...
Newport West have selected Jayne Bryant (who had the second spot on Euro 2014 list)
Selections taking place right now
Islwyn and Caerphilly have been twinned and they will select 1 man and 1 woman
Cynon Valley is selecting from an Open shortlist (therefore no drama this time unlike in run up of GE)
Delyn got an AWS
New vacancies
Neath, Gower and Llanelli.....as they are pretty close to each other, I guess 2 of them will be twinned to select 1 woman/1 man combo.
http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/
It has seat projections up to 19th June:
122 NDP
115 Con
87 Lib
13 BQ
1 Green
2) I am always ready for fresh data so that I can test and possibly change my views.
Could you post a link to this polling data which shows that "..Clarke was the most popular Tory leadership candidate with the public". (I'd be really interested in the detailed figures)
I expect UKIP to be the big gainers, and I would take Harry's projections of 26 seats right now. A couple of points though, governance in Wales is severely hampered by the bias against Wales in the Barnett formula. I have expressed my views forcefully to senior figures in the Party and I fully expect them to come out fighting over the coming months.
Secondly, good luck to Leighton in taking on councils who have failed, in the main, to recognise the need for change. The reorganisation, will, i understand, form a major part of the 2016 manifsto. Interestingly all the other main parties have agreed in principle for the need for change. It could just be a vote winner for Labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33198969
I'm suddenly feeling that SNP majority is not such a dumb bet for 2016.
I agree that Labour are facing .. if not a bloodbath ... at least the most difficult Welsh Assembly election to date.
am still in shock after the general election debacle. I worry greatly that UKIP will take seats off Labour. Their scores throughout Wales were consistent and if replicated will almost guarantee 8 seats, although I have to say Plaid may be as big losers in the Valleys as Labour. And what about Llanelli? Could UKIP actually win the consituency. Not impossible with their GE figures.
Over the next few months I will study the figures and of I have anything constructive to add I will post accordingly.
Mori June 2001 Clarke was on 32% with the public, Portillo 17%, IDS 7%, with Tory voters Clarke was on 29%, Portillo 25%, IDS 13%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1412341.stm
This reminds me of Rhodri Morgan’s farcical statement:
"We have to think about how Wales should not be penalised for not having had a referendum on independence, not having North Sea Oil and gas, and not having the troubles and strife that Northern Ireland has had," Mr Morgan said. "We didn't put the UK through the mincer, so we should be rewarded for that, not penalised for it,”
The only possible reaction is that Rhodri Morgan (and by extension most of Welsh Labour) actually don’t understand how politics works.
In politics, you don’t get things by rolling over and letting your tummy be tickled.
The perverse thing with UKIP is that they can take votes away from Lab resulting in taking seats away from others. Labour have regional lists in only 1 region and I guess UKIP is set to get at least 1 regional seat in all of them
It's facile to blame, if there is a blame, the war on IDS. The votes were not on a declaration of war anyway. Nor was it a vote of confidence in the govt or Blair - despite the labour rebellion, Blair survived and won an election. The govts own motion was passed even more comfortably. This was a motion urging Saddam to comply with UN resolutions.
"Disraeli If he had been elected by Tory members they would have had no choice,"
In the 2001 Conservative Party leadership election the MPS votes were as follows:
Clarke 59 (35.5%)
IDS 54
Portillo 53
The members vote, after Portillo was eliminated was:
IDS (60.7%)
Clarke (39.3)
...which is a pretty clear defeat.
Even if we follow the counterfactual scenario and Clarke had won the members vote, then he clearly had a lot of opposition in the parliamentary party as shown by the MPs vote. It is wrong to expect loyalty from the Conservative backbenchers in the 2001-2005 Parliament.
The biggest evidence for this is the that the man who beat Clarke in the members vote WAS REMOVED BY A COUP!
Neither could Clarke have offered a free vote on Europe because Blair would have played on his inability to unite his party.
Counterfactual arguments are all very well, but your scenario has too many holes in it.
US you now have to do an online ESTA, which you do once every 2 years, but that is all under the guise of anti-terrorism, nothing to do with visas etc. And actually it is easier to do that once, rather doing the old system of multiple landing cards with the poorly worded questions and those damn spacing that often so poorly printed it didn't line up properly.
Are the Swiss required to fill in masses of paperwork in order to get a visa to pop across the border to France for a holibob?
What does he put in the 2005 Tory manifesto?
a) "We will allow a free vote of Conservative MPs on the EU Constitution", or
b) "We support the EU constitution"
What was actually in the manifesto:
"We oppose the EU Constitution and would give the British people the chance to reject its provisions in a referendum within six months of the General Election. We also oppose giving up the valuable freedom which control of our own currency gives us. We will not join the Euro."
What is the likely result?
a) Conservatives go backwards and lose seats
b) Conservatives gain seats to cut Labour majority
c) Conservatives gain seats to create hung parliament, Labour biggest party
d) Conservatives gain seats to create hung parliament, Conservative biggest party
e) Conservatives gain seats and gain a majority
f) Conservatives landslide
Let's assume that Clarke has done well enough to stay on as leader if option c),
and certainly enough if option d)
Sooner or later the debate on the EU constitution comes up.
- On a free vote, half his party will vote against Clarke. If he leads a government, it goes down. (Yes, Labour WILL play games on that)
- If he insists on party unity then half his party will still vote against him.
Either way, Clarke loses and he has now split his party.