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This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more realistic level, as many people thought Yvette Cooper longish odds were wrong. As Mike noted this morning, the Tories have been able to hang Stafford around Burnham’s neck & his response poor & ill-thought out.
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My post-race thoughts are up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/austria-post-race-analysis.html
And using the TV debate as a platform to talk about shoes hardly shows someone with a vision for the party.
When challenged, Abbott spluttered about how she meets real people and knows things are not good. An important point: I’ll wager she moves almost exclusively in circles where lefties tell each other that things are not good, and the economy is not recovering. This was the echo-chamber that Ed Miliband inhabited, with the result we saw last month. Only Liz Kendall seems to be rooted in reality (and being pilloried for it): the others remain in denial. For those wanting ten years of Conservatism, the Labour leadership race really is shaping up nicely.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/06/diane-abbotts-car-crash-sunday-politics-interview-shows-the-depth-of-labours-denial/
Was there ever a time when Abbott talked sense or didn't embarrass herself? For years now that seems to have been the case near every time I see her, so stubborn and often seemingly unthinking. That may be unkind, clearly I don't have as full a picture of her as a person or politician as many others, but I feel very little respect toward her even (though I admit part of that is my no doubt irritating refusal to let go the pathetic circumstances of the 2010 leadership campaign)
Alan Clark's father was also called Ken Clark.
FPT
2001 2005 2010 2015
Tory Vote 360,658 369388 412471 434097
Total Vote 2315703 2333887 2465722 2910465
Tory % 15.57% 15.83% 16.73% 14.92%
So the Tory vote has steadily risen, as has the turnout. The Tory vote as a % of the electorate has steadily increased over this period, and as a percentage of turnout, it increased 2005 and 2010 and fell this year, probably only because of the massive SNP turnout of previous non-voters.
David Cameron is a gentleman and would in no circumstances mention her previous health problems, or who she is married to. Although, I expect she will do everything she can to 'needle' him and exploit the situation, knowing he can't answer back.
This woman is as hard as nails and I am expecting her to win and Tom Watson as deputy. Two Brownites' steeped in trade unionism and their dirty tricks.
Labour are welcome to the pair of them.
Yes, I suppose they would. (Is there any evidence that the Tories were considering such an unethical and counter-productive tactic?)
Though I'm covering that in the morning thread.
If Toby Young has zero savings, what hope is there for the rest of us?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/fameandfortune/11683592/Toby-Young-I-made-250000-in-my-best-year-but-still-have-zero-savings.html
Salmond/Miliband was making a political point.
Showing a woman in a man's pocket is making a different point altogether and could backfire quite spectacularly.....
The rest of her ~30 years as an MP has been a mixed bag of either barking mad or laziness.
edited
Carlotta's post that I did not initially see refers.
Following on then I suspect then every time Dave has go at Mrs Balls the left will frame it as bullying to obscure the lunacy of Yevette and husband and while completely forgetting their venom shot at Thatcher.
I was thinking of my situation where I am trying to build up a cash sum before retirement to give us a better time in retirement. The loss of your job now could be critical and eliminate that quite quickly.
@Mr HYUFD thanks and noted but after that 6 months then it's then an issue. I think I would be able to get work quickly but who knows What the situation may be if it happened?
The problem is with Labour the job loss is much more likely and that Spectator graph referenced up thread shows why. Labour have never left power with unemployment lower than when they started. . As I have mentioned previously I have never been unemployed under a Tory or coalition government. I have lost my job 3 times under Labour and on at least one occasion the actions of a union.
It's why I am absolutely anyone, anyone at all even Monster Raving Loony rather than Labour.
By the way did anyone notice Len McLuskey was front and centre of the demo yesterday holding the banner.
As for the Cooper-Balls thing, I'm another one who is not convinced of this as an argument. It essentially implies that a woman doesn't have a mind of her own, and her thoughts/ideas are completely controlled by her husband - which is extraordinarily patronising. I think with Cooper it would be rather difficult to demonize her in the same way the Tories could do to someone like Burnham, and Corbyn.
Would be relatively happy with her as leader.
Anyone but Kendall OK by me.
I am toying with Cooper as first choice.
Heart says Corbyn head says Cooper
Blair was able to win hearts as well as minds, at least pre Iraq and even Cameron communicated better than Ed's wonkese
I am not a financial person but I am quite fed up with countries and people who can borrow vast sums then demand they are written off as their people retire mid 50's while the rest of us retire mid 60's and close to 70's. Even to me this is an unsustainable model as who is next to hold out the cap? Italy? Spain? Who?
I wonder if the guy that penned this is going to be Balls boss? Anyone who would employ Balls may be questionable themselves even though a US Treasury secretary.
"The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary."
See what I mean .....even an inference that she might listen and be guided by hubby who claims to be a financial guru gets this sort of reaction. I was not patronising the woman I was merely pointing out a reality of life that she may well be guided by hubby but thank you for proving and demonstrating my principal point so eloquently.
@HYUFD I'm not doubting where politically Burnham's statements are at. I'm saying that despite that, because he has been characterised as left-wing, union man that tag will stick. As for Cooper, so far as she been the candidate to avoid defining herself too much. Where Labour would go under leadership politically is unknown. Yes, Blair did win hearts and minds. The trouble is, as I said previously the way Burnham comes across he is only winning hearts.
It's not specifically the Greek people I have an issue or even this latest government who have to all intents and purposes been passed the poisoned chalice though they are on a platform that makes it more difficult to resolve. The problem I have is with the entire EU project that created this unholy mess, the continuous fudging to cover this unholy mess and and a mess they were warned about more than 30 years ago.
Meanwhile we still have to shell out for countries that effectively snub their nose at us when we ask for changes. Germany appears to be far more exposed than we are but I don't expect the German people to be impressed either. Greece should never have be allowed to join in the first place and needs to be cut free. Most commentators now seem to agree that this is the best option even if the debts are not collected even partly .
Of course, what happened after that is that a policy agenda she almost entirely opposed was able to transform education, especially in cities and London, with some pretty impressive results. Compare the educational performance in say Lambeth with Yarmouth today, and you can see how things have changed in a way many would have said was impossible.
I suggested that she would listen to he husband a self declared guru, a big beast in the Labour Party even though and XMP a person who was shadow chancellor and a potential chancellor but was shown to be so consistently wrong on just about everything.
I would suggest that your comment again shows the validity of my original point. It's started already with the "sexist" inference just as previously the "racist" inference. It's what's going to happen and it just needs to be pointed out. Meanwhile it's rather amusing when you consider the the sexist abuse from the left thrown at Thatcher even now 25 years later and even after her death has never abated.
If Greece took a few sensible decisions like raising retirement ages away from 50s and making labour reforms that allow the unemployed to work instead. Then then there is no reason growth couldn't return and these payments could be met. All they have to do is cover the incredibly generous interest portions in the meantime.
If GDP/capita could be raised from current Greek levels to current British levels (even without counting future British growth) then that would transform debt from 180% of GDP to being "just" 90%.
Greece needs a Thatcher and instead it has a Foot. That is the problem.
The quid pro quo for access to credit is reform. Essentially, we will rescue you and in return you will need to run your economy in a sensible manner. Until the Eurozone crisis, this was considered perfectly normal. Since the Eurozone crisis, AEP and others have called this an unacceptable breach of sovereignty. Strangely, they were silent when the IMF made demands of other governments.
The specific issue with Greece is that it does not have a properly functioning democracy. Politicians of all hues have lied to their population. SYRIZA, which promises no austerity, no balanced budgets, no labour market reform, and no privatizations... yet with Euro membership... is just the biggest of a whole bunch of liars.
If the IMF and the Eurozone let Greece go to the wall, it will become a failed state in Europe. On the one hand, this will seriously dent the electoral chances of political parties who want to go the SYRIZA way (Podemos in Spain was down at just 12.1% in the latest Spanish opinion poll, suggesting that SYRIZA is not currently doing left wing insurgent parties much good.) But on the other, it is not good for the Greek people and it is not good for us in the UK.
Burnham may well be attempting to talk with his head in regard to his immigration/welfare statements, but the trouble is the way he comes across. He manages to take these 'tough talking' issues and emote his way through arguments. I'm not saying Labour should be right-wing on every stance - on certain issues such as public service provision, being sceptical of the private sector isn't exactly an unpopular position. It's being able to do the triangulation that Blair once did, effectively. I think Kendall is trying to do that but is failing - and ends up coming off as an imitator of government policy. When Blair was winning over hearts and minds, the advantage Blair had was that he had the background of someone from Middle England, and therefore in tune with the small 'c' conservative nature of swing voters. Therefore the depictions of him as 'Bambi' etc didn't work.
But they weren't. SYRIZA wants the impossible. And doesn't understand why Germans won't work until they are 70 to pay for them to retire at 55.
It is worth remembering in all of this, that a Euro exit would be functionally equivalent to a one-off 40% tax on everyone's bank accounts.
Then second best thing for Greece would be stay in the Euro and pursue sensible economic policies.
The very worst thing for Greece is for it to crash out the Euro in a disorganised manner while attempting to pursue Chavez-ian economic policies. And then get hounded in the world's courts for money in Euros and Dollars it cannot afford to repay.
In the main comment, TSE talks about the Cons shouldnt attack her about her health history. Of course they shouldnt, he is right, it would look nasty, but for those who are wanting her to lead her party and then her country, is it a legitimate factor to be considered (not to attack her, just whether it would hinder her ability to do the job).
Many people have suffered mental and psychiatric disorders, recovered, and went on to live their lives. Indeed Churchill was said to suffer from very deep bouts of depression.
But like it or not, this has to be considered.
'n 2013 the Greek Finance Minister at the time, Yannis Stournaras, agreed to raise the retirement age by two years to 67.
Despite this, however, Greek men still retire at 63 and women at 59, according to Greek government data.
By comparison, in Germany, the average retirement age for those receiving an old age pension in 2014 was 64 years according to Reuters.'
http://tinyurl.com/ojclckz
My wife and daughter took me out to a very filling Father's Day Lunch. They know my weaknesses and got me lots of Maynard's Wine Gums and real English Cadbury's chocolate and fruit and nut - not the crap that Hersheys puts out under the Cadbury name. My daughter also got me a USGA membership.
So now I'm home and watching the final round of the US Open, and enjoying a glass of wine. Without thinking I opened a box of wine gums and - yech....
Happy fathers Day everyone!
Her belief that because Corbyn went down very well at the hustings, means we are in for a massive upset is extraordinary in its naivety. It's the classic "everyone i know is voting Labour so we are bound to win". But from someone so experienced in politics it is a bit disturbing.
I be she really cant comprehend how the Conservatives managed to get a majority.
All the focus is on the £12Bn planned cuts in benefits (Boo Hiss etc)
It occurs to me that there are two further policies that Osbourne has
a) implemented in the past
b) spoken of as future aspirations
that will be an interesting counter-balancing narrative.
Neither of which involve spending money (or reducing tax take)...
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article.aspx?ArticleId=1020662#.VYcICb1wbqB
Silly me with my non-telepathic abilities.
The figure of 53 years old as an average retirement age is being bandied about. So much, in fact, that it is being seen as fact. The figure actually originates from a lazy comment on the NY Times website. It was then repeated by Fox News and printed on other publications. Greek civil servants have the option to retire after 17.5 years of service, but this is on half benefits.
The figure of 53 is a misinformed conflation of the number of people who choose to do this (in most cases to go on to different careers) and those who stay in public service until their full entitlement becomes available"
https://sturdyblog.wordpress.com/2011/06/18/democracy-vs-mythology-the-battle-in-syntagma-square/
Alternate sources are welcomed. I'd like alternate data on this, if possible.
A & E was really quiet in Romford today, my dad (who has had bouts of breathlessness of late) was seen within half an hour or so, and all tests done in less than 4 hours. He's back home and doing OK, for the moment.
Maybe being a Sunday helped.
What's the price of oil again?
Though a Billion Euro or so a month flowing from Putin's coffers to the ECB could be interesting. Without Greek reformation they would have to cough up for a long time.
Its worth remembering just how poor the Conservative Leadership choice offered up to their membership was back after their defeat in 2001. It took three GE defeats, two Leadership contests and a coronation before the Conservative membership were finally able to vote to break away from their past mistakes in 2005. And even then, it still took another two GE's to finally win that elusive majority. The Labour party cannot again just complacently assume that their political fortunes are going to automatically improve whoever they chose to lead them simple because the Conservatives are now in Government with a small majority.
After Labour's poor performance in the 2011 Holyrood election and their subsequent near wipe out in Scotland at the GE, its also going to be interesting to see what happens to Labour in Wales at next years elections. You still get the sense of real Labour complacency in Wales, and this despite the fact that it was the post GE devolved elections that first heralded the depth of Scottish Labour's local problems. I know one thing right now, both Labour in Wales and the SNP in Scotland are fast proving that neither the NHS or Education is safer in their hands than it would be under the Conservatives. Its not just Labour at Westminster and in Scotland who need to fast get their act together, Welsh Labour could still prove to be a real sting in the tail after the GE defeat.
Portugal 68.4 for men and 66.4 for women
Sweden 66.1/64.2
Ireland 64.6/62.6
UK 63.7/63.2
Netherlands 63.6/62.3
Spain 62.3/63.2
Germany 62.1/61.6
Greece 61.9/60.3
Italy 61.1/60.5
France 59.7/60
Belgium 59.6/58.7
Luxemburg 57.6/59.6
2) Minimum wage increase - with low inflation and profitability in economy, could easily put in an increase. My guess is in the 25p+ range. 70% certain on this.
The idea would (or will) be to sell that package as moving the system away from tax credits and welfare to to the employed poor, to letting them keep their own money.
“You’re a turncoat, Brand… sell us a book on revolution and then tell us to vote Labour… f**k off back to Miliband you tw*t.”
The problem for Russell is he sells ideological purity. But as soon as you try to interface purity with reality you lose that distinctive quality you are selling.
It's no that Brand did anything wrong. From his perspective he was talking to a guy who could be PM in a few days.
http://order-order.com/#_@/Vg8vQN4GTnJKpQ
Thats why UC is shockingly expensive, it wasn designed to roll back benefits/credits but to distribute them in a way that is more responsive.
I think many who are on big tax credits know they are on borrowed time with them, and enjoying them while they can.
Cooper is tainted by Balls/Brown economics, but not by marriage. She consistently refuses to say that Labour overspent in the Brown years and was Chief Sec to the Treasury for the worst years of the financial crisis. It is one of several ways that she has underperformed over her years in parliament.
The only thing in her favour is that I make a nice profit on Betfair if she beats Burnham!
The Welsh Assembly vs Westminster relationship within Welsh Labour have been different compared to the dynamics within SLAB. It hit them in 1999 but they dealt with it pretty quickly with Morgan replacing Alun Michael. They were possibly helped by the lack of a big number of high profile Westminster figures within Welsh Labour in very recent years apart from Peter Hain. I mean, their 2 main Westminster MPs right now are Owen Smith and Chris Brynat ...not exactly Gordon Brown, Dougie or Murphy.
So it is not seen as "dominated" by Westminster as SLAB has been. However, they could have "perception" problems, but I think a different perception problem that SLAB had/have.