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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tuesday evening round up
Having picked the seats and selected the candidates, the next step was to understand key voters in each constituency. Lynton Crosby began working for the Conservatives in January 2012 (after calls from ConHome among others for the party to hire him), and part of his role was to lead on the polling and analysis of voters in each target constituency:
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Casino_Royale said:
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Ben Bradshaw should be much higher. He holds the only Labour seat west of Bristol. Indeed, outside Bristol, in the whole southwest of England. And in a historic medieval city that was historically Tory up until the 1990s. He comfortably held on this year.
He clearly has something to teach the rest of the party.
Bradshaw is a good candidate.
Did 25 MPs really vote for Angela Eagle? That's well over 10% of the Parliamentary party that are simply thinking about party politics - Eagle (and her sister) has about as much electoral appeal as a nasty patch of damp.
Miss Ali (who's sensible enough) finishing up last must surely create a pause for thought too.
And the point about the Lib Dems is that they were about as centrist as could be in this election, and were advocating a platform which sounds identical to the one Kendall is advocating (largely accepting the Tories' views on the economy and public services, but also being pro-Europe and pro-immigration) and they got a historic routing.
EDIT: I think there may even have been some polls in 1987 which showed people placed Kinnock closer to the centre than Thatcher? Not 100% sure though.
It's up to the American people though. They've not been too far wrong so far.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/16/ukip-matt-richardson-unresignation-carswell_n_7593340.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
Cameron v Miliband is basically a tie, but Brown was the centrist according to popular opinion at least.
First, money looks like it was pretty important and the author concludes by - I summarise - ascribing the election victory to a willingness to spend money. It looks like the Conservatives had more money than before, and more expenditure than before. Note all the expense items for "Team2015" and its ability to replace a traditional party membership (albeit, as he says, only temporarily). It's important to have money to win elections. Which ought to be clear to everyone. But it is useful to reiterate.
Second, the 40/40 strategy would have been productive even if they didn't win a majority. So it may have been a "precision strike", but it didn't have to be perfectly right, but obviously it's great for them that it was.
Third, it doesn't read like the Conservatives knew they would win a majority, or even exit-poll figures, on election night.
Miliband -35 on the left
Cameron +46 on the right
For this to be an erroneous result, the error margin would have to be even bigger than the opinion polls before the election (which were "only" about 5-6% out).
http://labourlist.org/2014/12/red-ed-poll-shows-miliband-closer-to-the-centre-than-cameron/
23% considered the Conservatives to be "radical" (i.e. the opposite of centrist), while 19% said that Labour were "radical".
http://www.gqrr.com/uk-post-election-4
Indeed, a more utterly repellent human being it would be hard to find.
Surely if they have to have an election for deputy it would be better to do it after the leader is chosen - it might even allow a runner up in the leadership competition to stand for deputy if he or she wishes?
That polling in general is very eye-opening though, because it blows holes in a lot of the Blairites' analysis. People said they considered Labour to not be tough enough on big businesses, thought they should increase taxes on the rich more, and felt they understood "ordinary people" and aspiration more than the Conservatives did. By contrast, they disapproved of Labour's policies on immigration, welfare, and felt they should be "more patriotic about Britain".
(On public spending, the results were mixed: the top doubt about voting Labour was that "they would spend too much", yet when asked specifically about Labour's deficit-reduction plans, a narrow plurality thought Labour should cut spending "slower than they plan". God knows how people square that contradiction in their minds.)
For those like Harman who want at least one woman holding one of those two positions, the system is not designed remotely with that in mind either. Peope will vote on one without know the result of the other - and it's far from clear.
Current Tory policy would have been somewhat uncomfortable to Lady Thatcher I imagine - somewhat too much state in everything. However that is the tide.
I think the British theme is unchanged in many ways from 50 years ago - it's conservative (small c) in terms of the day-to-day, but expansive (Empire) in terms of the other than day-to-day.
Yes the public are "centrist" but without necessarily being in the absolute centre politically. They mostly shy away from leaders they perceive as "Too Right" or "Too Left", but some conviction politics is OK - even preferable.
As for the LibDems . . .. historically a centre party has a long tradition and has a core of genuine supporters whom I respect. Over the last 25 years it acquired a softer outer layer of supporters who abandoned the party after the stresses of going into coalition with the Tories. It "unwound".
Here's an interesting view of where they went when they deserted the LD's - literally everywhere!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_votermigration.html
Edit:
Some really nice ones, including the most expensive car sold in Britain, £12 million for a 1963 Ferrari 250 GTO.:
http://www.motoringresearch.com/top-cars/the-chris-evans-car-collection-0521976651
So he is very, very much a petrol head.
Top Gear needs to be killed off or at least hibernated for a couple of years and returned in a completely different format. Trying to force the same show with new presenters while memories are fresh of the old is setting it up to fail.
You seem to be very, very, wrong on this.
Driven by James May
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/610711583069720576
"So far only 2,500 people have been signed-up as affiliated supporters from the trade unions and socialist societies. Whatever the political impact on the result this can’t be described as an advance for democracy. Unless the unions turn this round and convert many more of their members into affiliated supporters it looks like the vast majority of the 211,234 affiliated members who voted in 2010 (less those who were also full party members) will be disenfranchised. This is not good news for Labour or its links through the unions with ordinary working people, as our full members are inevitably more middle class having paid a relatively large amount to join."
http://labourlist.org/2015/06/12-things-we-learned-during-the-leadership-nomination-process/
Basically the Union membership is not interested and will play no meaningful part in this election. Who will this radically different electorate favour? Well in 2010 they favoured the more right wing David over his brother by a reasonable margin. Might give Liz Kendall some room for optimism.
So go on: define petrolhead in such a way that Evans obviously is not one.
Much depends on the choice of his co-presenters.
Seriously though, there's two months left of registration for the vote, and silly season is coming up - it's not impossible that a disruptive campaign could produce something of a shock, more so given the unions' apparent difficulty in signing up members. The £3 idea could backfire spectacularly!
As an aside, have car-mad people in my family, including a brother who owns an Elise he takes on track days and who is currently restoring a 1939 MG TB - a beautiful car. Although you'd probably just call him 'someone who drives a car'.
Edit: I've misremembered: it's a TA with a later post-war TB engine.
TICIPM
1 out of 2 aint bad!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9rGX91rq5I
Switzerland v Cameroon
Ecuador v Japan
Nigeria v USA
Australia v Sweden
http://www.fifa.com/womensworldcup/
I think all of the current leadership candidates should reflect on this piece:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/
If only she had a seat..
@thomasknox: Chris Evans??? The BBC replaces a comic genius with, um, a very good presenter. Won't work. REALLY won't work abroad. Fail.
On the Labour side, I assume 35 is again the cut-off. As it happens, and unlike many on the (centre) right, I think Tom Watson would be an effective choice. He would be a better LOTO (and certainly better than the current selection of pygmies) than many and would cause the Conservatives real problems. Of course the flip side is that he would be terrible in government but Johnson's tent maxim is relevant here.
His "educational" insight gets ever more ludicrous as the video progresses, particularly once he gets onto his 'dictatorship lite' stuff.
(P.S. His folksy, "let me tell you works, dude" style also manages to grate, whilst retaining all of its hectoring tone throughout, which doesn't help either.)
Ho hum. BTW, your suggestion that the show being a failure means that Evans is not a petrolhead is slightly odd.
Ruth Davidson has a harder job but just might end up the official leader of a much diminished opposition next year.
It's one thing to say that the Scottish electorate shouldn't be used as voting fodder to supply a UK party with the bulk of its base of careerist MPs, and to those MPs once elected to take that electorate for granted.
It's quite another to say it's a problem, period, for them to have front-line roles in UK politics.
I have not seen it mentioned on here, but Fallon announced last week that there is to be another SDSR before the end of the year:
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/fallon-announces-defence-review-for-late-2015/
Hopefully the peeps on here with knowledge of the military will be able to give him some helpful pointers.
""This is not true," he told listeners. "Not only is it not true, it's absolute nonsense.
"From what I've seen on Twitter and various social media, there's a 50/50 split approximately as to whether me being involved in the show is a good idea."
He continued: "In TV or radio, if you get a 50/50 love/hate reaction that usually equals massive hit. I used to work for [ratings body] BARB and knock on people's doors and this was the rule of thumb.
"However, I'm in the no camp. So regardless of whether it would be a hit, I'm voting a no for myself on that show, so that's never going to happen."
He added: "And that's the end of that. Now all the people waiting outside can go and have a cup of tea somewhere."
And in September 2014:
""100% not true. 100% never going to happen. 100% time for a fry up."
OH DEAR.
This is an ancient English city with oodles of history and was reliably Tory until 1997. It's in a deeply Conservative county.
Labour should be begging him to tell them his secret.
Time for Sky to get the readies out for May, Hammond and Clarkson.
Look at Labour on the SNP and Ed Leigh amendments, I mean just look at them - an utter shambles.
I don't think Sky can afford CH&M. My money's on Amazon or Netflix.
The Greek football team is in action again, this time against Poland. A few days ago they lost to the Faroe Islands.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event?id=27462876
Donald J. Trump ✔@realDonaldTrump
Sorry losers and haters, but my I.Q. is one of the highest -and you all know it! Please don't feel so stupid or insecure,it's not your fault
TG on the Beeb is finished.
If the Greek state misses an interest payment on publicly tradable bonds, then the ratings agencies will have no choice but to declare a default, and at that point the Greek banks will become insolvent.
During the referendum campaign, UKIP friends of mine told me that Cameron's referendum promise was a sham as he would "rig" the referendum. At the time I told them they were wearing tin-foil hats. I said it was nonsense that Cameron would ever try such a thing, and, if he did, the party wouldn't let him. Meeting one at the pub earlier, I had to admit he was right and I was wrong.
The loans to the IMF and the bonds owed by the ECB are not tradable, the credit rating agencies explicitly said and wrote that a non-payment to the IMF or the ECB does not constitute a default.
If the credit rating agencies say it's not a default then it's not a default, even if lenders are not payed the full sum on time, that's how they got around the PSI in 2012.
I can only assume the BBC are remembering all the forecasts of woe after Wogan retired from the Breakfast Show on Radio 2, where Chris Evans lost some older listeners but actually added net listeners overall.
But Top Gear is very different.
Good night all.
Plus, plenty of Exeter is not hipsterville or university land. Bradshaw clearly cuts right across divides.