Grexit update: The White House has just told everyone that Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary, has been on the phone to Tsipiras (and one assumes, Legarde and Merkel), to try and persuade him to be "pragmatic", and warning him of the hardship that would ensue from a disorderly default. I assume that he offered Tsipiras sweeties of some kind, but I have no evidence.
Patience, there are 2 more weeks to go, until then nothings happens.
I think you and I are in disagreement on this one :-)
If the Greek state misses an interest payment on publicly tradable bonds, then the ratings agencies will have no choice but to declare a default, and at that point the Greek banks will become insolvent.
What publicly tradable bonds? The loans to the IMF and the bonds owed by the ECB are not tradable, the credit rating agencies explicitly said and wrote that a non-payment to the IMF or the ECB does not constitute a default.
If the credit rating agencies say it's not a default then it's not a default, even if lenders are not payed the full sum on time, that's how they got around the PSI in 2012.
You sly old PB Tory foxes have really started something here - I'm sure as long as Ruth remembers not to include MSP after her surname - she should be fine:
If there is a politician in the UK who is better at using social media than Ruth Davidson I don't know who it is. Genuinely funny yet again.
I'd genuinely love her to run for next UK Tory leader.
If only she had a seat..
And this is precisely the problem Labour had, using Scotland basically as a platform to get into UK politics.
What are you saying? That no Scottish MP can ever be a UK party leader, or Prime Minister?
It's one thing to say that the Scottish electorate shouldn't be used as voting fodder to supply a UK party with the bulk of its base of careerist MPs, and to those MPs once elected to take that electorate for granted.
It's quite another to say it's a problem, period, for them to have front-line roles in UK politics.
Perhaps I was exaggerating/simplifying things, and to be fair, it isn't as if we have had many successful Scottish Tories make the move to Westminster recently!
I'm sure Mundell will grow in stature as this parliament progresses.
People seem to be condemning Chris Evans led Top Gear before it has even been recorded. We have no idea what the show will become, and if he is just going to be the presenter or if it is going to be the old gang of Evans / Danny Baker / etc coming up with the concepts ala TFI Friday.
I think because it will never be as good as the original whatever happens, also if Clarkson creates a rival show you know that a Chris Evans Top Gear will be dead on arrival and it's death would simply hurt Evans's reputation.
Grexit update: The White House has just told everyone that Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary, has been on the phone to Tsipiras (and one assumes, Legarde and Merkel), to try and persuade him to be "pragmatic", and warning him of the hardship that would ensue from a disorderly default. I assume that he offered Tsipiras sweeties of some kind, but I have no evidence.
Patience, there are 2 more weeks to go, until then nothings happens.
And then a fudge, and nothing happens.
You are getting in the spirit of how europe does it's stuff.
However,I do think we are now in the end game, Greece is overplaying a very weak hand, the rest of Europe has had enough, the markets have pretty much factored in a default, time to eat Humble pie for Tspiras, or get out.
Eurozone has 330bn exposure to Greece. If Greece were to default on all of its official-sector debt, France and Germany alone would stand to lose some €160bn. Angela Merkel and François Hollande would go down as the biggest financial losers in history. The creditors are rejecting any talks about debt relief now, but that may be different once Greece starts to default.
Default is the only way to shift their debt, they cannot grow their way out of it and they will just require another bailout further down the road.
Labour should be begging him to tell them his secret.
This probably helped Mr Bradshaw: "The Met Office, the main weather forecasting organisation for the United Kingdom and one of the most significant in the world, relocated from Bracknell in Berkshire to Exeter in early 2004. It is one of the three largest employers in the area (together with the University of Exeter and Devon County Council)." (Wikipedia)
Labour are more popular with public servants than the Conservatives.
People seem to be condemning Chris Evans led Top Gear before it has even been recorded. We have no idea what the show will become, and if he is just going to be the presenter or if it is going to be the old gang of Evans / Danny Baker / etc coming up with the concepts ala TFI Friday.
I think because it will never be as good as the original whatever happens, also if Clarkson creates a rival show you know that a Chris Evans Top Gear will be dead on arrival and it's death would simply hurt Evans's reputation.
Did you not think that old Top Gear was starting to get rather stale? I am not convinced just rebooting Clarkson / Hammond / May on a different channel is a guaranteed home run if they are tucked away from a mainstream channel.
Where is Chris Moyles these days....once the biggest start on the radio, now a sad middle aged guy making YouTube videos that nobody watches (and that is despite name recognition, 3.5m followers on twitter, and plenty of well known stars willing to plug him).
People seem to be condemning Chris Evans led Top Gear before it has even been recorded. We have no idea what the show will become, and if he is just going to be the presenter or if it is going to be the old gang of Evans / Danny Baker / etc coming up with the concepts ala TFI Friday.
Top Gear meets Dr Who. Its regenerating. It will be a different programme with the same name. The BBC will still publish a monthly magazine which will have little in relation to the TV programme except an article by Evans. Magazine and programme and brand will make money. It will be ether worse or as good or better, who knows. But it will be a different programme.
And DavidL? .... TG makes money for the licence holders. If its scrapped it will cost the BBC money.
Grexit update: The White House has just told everyone that Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary, has been on the phone to Tsipiras (and one assumes, Legarde and Merkel), to try and persuade him to be "pragmatic", and warning him of the hardship that would ensue from a disorderly default. I assume that he offered Tsipiras sweeties of some kind, but I have no evidence.
Patience, there are 2 more weeks to go, until then nothings happens.
I think you and I are in disagreement on this one :-)
If the Greek state misses an interest payment on publicly tradable bonds, then the ratings agencies will have no choice but to declare a default, and at that point the Greek banks will become insolvent.
What publicly tradable bonds? The loans to the IMF and the bonds owed by the ECB are not tradable, the credit rating agencies explicitly said and wrote that a non-payment to the IMF or the ECB does not constitute a default.
If the credit rating agencies say it's not a default then it's not a default, even if lenders are not payed the full sum on time, that's how they got around the PSI in 2012.
Hopefully the peeps on here with knowledge of the military will be able to give him some helpful pointers.
I don't have much knowledge, rending my next comment not much use to Mr Fallon, bu perhaps stop wasting billions on contracts they must know will only increase hugely over time and be late and be crap, since it seems to happen so often?
That reminds me of this, which is quite funny, more or less true, and also familiar to anyone who has been involved with project design. No-one does feature creep like the military:
I'm sure Mundell will grow in stature as this parliament progresses.
Well, he hasn't locked himself in a toilet after getting lost in the lobbies, so he is ahead of the curve...
Don't speak too soon. Mundell is brilliant at keeping his seat. It is a seriously important and remarkable attribute in a Scottish Tory. Apart from that....
Richard Keen QC, now Lord Keen of Eilie, was presented to the Court of Session this morning to become Advocate General of Scotland. He is an entirely different kettle of fish.
People seem to be condemning Chris Evans led Top Gear before it has even been recorded. We have no idea what the show will become, and if he is just going to be the presenter or if it is going to be the old gang of Evans / Danny Baker / etc coming up with the concepts ala TFI Friday.
I think because it will never be as good as the original whatever happens, also if Clarkson creates a rival show you know that a Chris Evans Top Gear will be dead on arrival and it's death would simply hurt Evans's reputation.
The success of Top Gear was the chemistry between the presenters.
Depending on who turns up to accompany Evans, the show may or may not work. Presumably the format will have to be changed to showcase the strengths of the team.
It will not be the smash hit that Clarkson et al managed to create, nor should it be expected to be.
It is all a question of avoiding being in the shadow of the previous trio, and the show standing on its own, and not being weighed in the balance and found wanting.
That may take some time, and the new team will have to find their own niche.
I'd agree with the view that Bradshaw would be an interesting choice. I know nothing of where he falls ideologically within the Labour party, but living in the SW as I do, I am genuinely interested in how he's managed to do so well in an area more Tory than ever.
It is a fascinating red dot in a sea of blue that stands out all the more when the sand dunes disappeared beneath the waves.
Not only that, Bradshaw significantly increased his vote, with a big swing to him, topped his 2005 vote, in both percentage and absolute terms, and wasn't very far off matching his 2001 vote.
This is an ancient English city with oodles of history and was reliably Tory until 1997. It's in a deeply Conservative county.
Labour should be begging him to tell them his secret.
He never gave the impression of being a particularly competent minister but he does come across as an extremely pleasant and affable man. More like a traditional Lib Dem MP in various ways. I think he and Vince would find it very hard to find something to disagree about.
Grexit update: The White House has just told everyone that Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary, has been on the phone to Tsipiras (and one assumes, Legarde and Merkel), to try and persuade him to be "pragmatic", and warning him of the hardship that would ensue from a disorderly default. I assume that he offered Tsipiras sweeties of some kind, but I have no evidence.
Patience, there are 2 more weeks to go, until then nothings happens.
And then a fudge, and nothing happens.
You are getting in the spirit of how europe does it's stuff.
However,I do think we are now in the end game, Greece is overplaying a very weak hand, the rest of Europe has had enough, the markets have pretty much factored in a default, time to eat Humble pie for Tspiras, or get out.
Eurozone has 330bn exposure to Greece. If Greece were to default on all of its official-sector debt, France and Germany alone would stand to lose some €160bn. Angela Merkel and François Hollande would go down as the biggest financial losers in history. The creditors are rejecting any talks about debt relief now, but that may be different once Greece starts to default.
Default is the only way to shift their debt, they cannot grow their way out of it and they will just require another bailout further down the road.
The ECB has reached ¢400bn in accumulated capital since the creation of the Euro, so the Target-2 losses and the ECB held bonds would just be written off, and no one would pay an extra Euro cent in taxes.
The losses to the EU (i.e. not Target-2, non ECB held) amount to about ¢80-120bn (depending on whether you use face or purchase price as your measure). However, as Greece would still owe the money even in the event of default (it's like when you stop paying your credit cards, you still owe the money, even if you haven't sent a cheque to your bank), this would not need to be all written off. My guess is that there would be an agreement where ESF bonds were swapped for national bonds over 10 years, so the impact to Germany or France in an individual year would be de minimis.
Grexit update: The White House has just told everyone that Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary, has been on the phone to Tsipiras (and one assumes, Legarde and Merkel), to try and persuade him to be "pragmatic", and warning him of the hardship that would ensue from a disorderly default. I assume that he offered Tsipiras sweeties of some kind, but I have no evidence.
Patience, there are 2 more weeks to go, until then nothings happens.
I think you and I are in disagreement on this one :-)
If the Greek state misses an interest payment on publicly tradable bonds, then the ratings agencies will have no choice but to declare a default, and at that point the Greek banks will become insolvent.
What publicly tradable bonds? The loans to the IMF and the bonds owed by the ECB are not tradable, the credit rating agencies explicitly said and wrote that a non-payment to the IMF or the ECB does not constitute a default.
If the credit rating agencies say it's not a default then it's not a default, even if lenders are not payed the full sum on time, that's how they got around the PSI in 2012.
That shows ¢3bn of private held T-Bills maturing in July! Also, don't forget that all the numbers quoted are for principle repayments. Greece also has to make interest payments, which - assuming 4% average cost of debt - is ¢20bn a year.
What a shameful night for parliament. The Conservatives push though the suspension of purdah for the first time since it came in, and Labour vote it through with them, going against their previous promise to stand up for democratic rights.
During the referendum campaign, UKIP friends of mine told me that Cameron's referendum promise was a sham as he would "rig" the referendum. At the time I told them they were wearing tin-foil hats. I said it was nonsense that Cameron would ever try such a thing, and, if he did, the party wouldn't let him. Meeting one at the pub earlier, I had to admit he was right and I was wrong.
We are having a referendum. 'Purdah' only refers to 28 days. Ask Lynton Crosby about how meaningful 28 days is. Everyone has a vote. A vote on EU membership. Whatever anybody says the outers will not be listening. They are not listening now, when it was said in Parliament by the govt... "We will ensure there is a clear mechanism in the four weeks before polling day, government will not undertake a range of activity that most will regard as the province of the campaigns, such as issuing mailshots, running commercial advertising campaigns or e-mailing voters in one way or another," Plus the date will not be May 5th. If the govt position is that it thinks the negotiations are good and would implement them in power then it hardly seems believable that it should not say so. We went into the EU without a referendum, we declare war without a referendum. We elect governments to govern and this govt is fulfilling its manifesto. Its pretty pathetic to be whinging about being given an extra vote on something and bleating defeat before you start.
Hopefully the peeps on here with knowledge of the military will be able to give him some helpful pointers.
I don't have much knowledge, rending my next comment not much use to Mr Fallon, bu perhaps stop wasting billions on contracts they must know will only increase hugely over time and be late and be crap, since it seems to happen so often?
That reminds me of this, which is quite funny, more or less true, and also familiar to anyone who has been involved with project design. No-one does feature creep like the military:
We are having a referendum. 'Purdah' only refers to 28 days. Ask Lynton Crosby about how meaningful 28 days is.
If it doesn't matter, then why change it for the referendum? I'd have thought those in favour of staying in the EU would do everything possible to make sure that it is a fair vote - and seen to be a fair vote - even if such things are quite trivial.
Comments
Default is the only way to shift their debt, they cannot grow their way out of it and they will just require another bailout further down the road.
"The Met Office, the main weather forecasting organisation for the United Kingdom and one of the most significant in the world, relocated from Bracknell in Berkshire to Exeter in early 2004. It is one of the three largest employers in the area (together with the University of Exeter and Devon County Council)." (Wikipedia)
Labour are more popular with public servants than the Conservatives.
Where is Chris Moyles these days....once the biggest start on the radio, now a sad middle aged guy making YouTube videos that nobody watches (and that is despite name recognition, 3.5m followers on twitter, and plenty of well known stars willing to plug him).
New Thread
The BBC will still publish a monthly magazine which will have little in relation to the TV programme except an article by Evans. Magazine and programme and brand will make money.
It will be ether worse or as good or better, who knows. But it will be a different programme.
And DavidL? .... TG makes money for the licence holders. If its scrapped it will cost the BBC money.
http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA
Richard Keen QC, now Lord Keen of Eilie, was presented to the Court of Session this morning to become Advocate General of Scotland. He is an entirely different kettle of fish.
Depending on who turns up to accompany Evans, the show may or may not work. Presumably the format will have to be changed to showcase the strengths of the team.
It will not be the smash hit that Clarkson et al managed to create, nor should it be expected to be.
It is all a question of avoiding being in the shadow of the previous trio, and the show standing on its own, and not being weighed in the balance and found wanting.
That may take some time, and the new team will have to find their own niche.
The losses to the EU (i.e. not Target-2, non ECB held) amount to about ¢80-120bn (depending on whether you use face or purchase price as your measure). However, as Greece would still owe the money even in the event of default (it's like when you stop paying your credit cards, you still owe the money, even if you haven't sent a cheque to your bank), this would not need to be all written off. My guess is that there would be an agreement where ESF bonds were swapped for national bonds over 10 years, so the impact to Germany or France in an individual year would be de minimis.
Everyone has a vote. A vote on EU membership. Whatever anybody says the outers will not be listening. They are not listening now, when it was said in Parliament by the govt...
"We will ensure there is a clear mechanism in the four weeks before polling day, government will not undertake a range of activity that most will regard as the province of the campaigns, such as issuing mailshots, running commercial advertising campaigns or e-mailing voters in one way or another,"
Plus the date will not be May 5th.
If the govt position is that it thinks the negotiations are good and would implement them in power then it hardly seems believable that it should not say so. We went into the EU without a referendum, we declare war without a referendum. We elect governments to govern and this govt is fulfilling its manifesto. Its pretty pathetic to be whinging about being given an extra vote on something and bleating defeat before you start.