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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters/Political Betting podcast: Your questions n

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters/Political Betting podcast: Your questions needed

This week Keiran will be interviewing James Morris on polling, Labour and the General Election campaign. As most will know, James was Ed Miliband’s pollster during the recent election.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    O/T & FPT:

    Nice work if you can get it.....Nigel Farage seen on the streets of St Peter port today, just off Cunard's Queen Elizabeth where he's giving a talk.... (last time I was on Cunard Rolf Harris was giving a talk - and very entertaining he was too - I later found out the police were raiding his home as we crossed the Atlantic....)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On Topic:

    "Did Labour's polls show a different picture to the published newspaper ones? Since the election there have been claims that the Tories polls showed results closer to the actual outcome - did Labour's, and if not, do you have any thoughts on why?"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2015
    FPT

    Look at the bloated DNV element for Labour, and the exaggerated number of 2015 Lab voters in the sample - and even then 20% say they won't vote Labour again.

    Labour heading for sub 25 as the Scottish malaise spreads south.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    edited June 2015
    I'm an opinion polling addict, and, and I've been fighting to get off polling data - shut up TSE! - and, um, since last August. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that. I wanna be a survivor.

    I mean I died again on Election night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh, I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.

    I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I'm going to rebuild my life.

    http://www.tuug.fi/~jaakko/dm/dave.txt
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    O/T & FPT:

    Nice work if you can get it.....Nigel Farage seen on the streets of St Peter port today, just off Cunard's Queen Elizabeth where he's giving a talk.... (last time I was on Cunard Rolf Harris was giving a talk - and very entertaining he was too - I later found out the police were raiding his home as we crossed the Atlantic....)

    I bet he wanted to get off promptly!!!
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    "What sort of confidence do candidates and parties place in their private polls? Do they feel they are a guide to the overall picture or solidly believe them and are shocked when they lose?"

    "How much more faith do politicians place in private polls than public ones? Why?"

    "What effect do private polls have on a politicians' actions? Are there any behaviours that are tip-offs that a politicians' private polls are showing them behind or ahead?"

    "Are there any types of questions asked in private polls that aren't asked very often in public ones?"
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2015
    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Bloody hell. Imagine growing up knowing that your father put his career before your own well being.

    I said:

    Pathetic.

    In contrast Ken McIntosh, a candidate for the Scottish Labour leadership allowed his son to take up a scholarship at Merchiston, probably the poshest school in Scotland, an all boy boarding school. And quite right too. Its a fantastic opportunity for the lad who is obviously quite bright.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the finest legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    Cesar Romero, the original Joker :lol:
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Was the first question or any of the questions.

    'Are you registered to vote? '
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Question: what will you do differently in the wake of May 7th?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Picking up on Carlotta's question it would be very informative to have an accurate picture of what Labour's private polling was showing because we have had 2 very different versions of the story to date.

    According to Dan Hodges Ed spent the evening writing his victory speech and was encouraged to do so even after the exit poll came out on the basis it was wrong (as indeed it was but not in a good way for Labour). According to some of those involved in the polling Ed at least would have known that he was 6% behind on the night and should have been aware that victory was simply not possible.

    Both these versions simply cannot be right.

    We also know that the Tory internal polling was much more accurate if not spot on. If Labour's was well out it would be interesting to know why it was thought that they got it wrong and the Tories got it right: do they buy in to the Messina analysis that the pollsters' modelling of the population was simply wrong and based on what the population looked like in 2010.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ICM poll in June 2010 had figures of Con 39 Lab 31 LD 21
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    justin124 said:

    ICM poll in June 2010 had figures of Con 39 Lab 31 LD 21

    The Tories are doomed. Doomed, I tell yeah.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    "How does Labour maintain a coherent, centre-left position that will please it's core vote, while not alienating swing voters with hyperbolistic impressions of the Tory opposition, or patronising appeals to the electorate, both of which are ineffective?"

    "Is it possible to try to recover support in the south, while confronting the SNP at the same time?"
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    On/Topic

    1) Were there any differences between what research from Focus Groups (FGs) was saying, and what Labour's private polls (PPs) were saying?

    2) Did Labour deliberately disregard data from FGs and PPs if it did not fit with Labour's own narrative of what the campaign should be about?

    3) how soon did Labour pick up that there was a surge against them in Scotland?

    4) Did Labour pick up that the SNP surge was going to have a negative impact on Labour performance in England & Wales due to the fear of Ed being elected PM "through the back door"?

    5) How much Labour use private polling to decide on the allocation of activists in marginals?

    6) If so, how effective was it given that they didn't seem to defend Ed Balls with any vigour?

    7) What changes are in the pipeline for FGs and PPs to make them more effective (Philip Gould was meticulous in these matters - has he been forgotten)?

    8) What are the three biggest lessons learned about the Labour private polling performance in the 2015 General Election?

    9) Could you name at least one major success of Labour Private Polling for the 2015 General Election?

    10) Were any aspects of Private Polling brand new for the 2015 General Election?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    kle4 said:

    "How does Labour maintain a coherent, centre-left position that will please it's core vote, while not alienating swing voters with hyperbolistic impressions of the Tory opposition, or patronising appeals to the electorate, both of which are ineffective?"

    "Is it possible to try to recover support in the south, while confronting the SNP at the same time?"

    I think the answer to these questions is 42.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If a 17 year-old can't be held responsible for his decision to become a suicide bomber, why should people that age be given a vote in a national referendum?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Do you support the idea of prohibiting opinion polls during the election period at the least?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    john_zims said:

    Was the first question or any of the questions.

    'Are you registered to vote? '

    A key question. Individual registration may have been critical in some constituencies.

    Private polling for a party should be more subtle than simply voting intention. There was no shortage of public polls on these.

    Party polling should focus more on how messages are coming across on doorsteps and media. The Tories knew the SNP issue was going down very badly with English swing voters. Did Labour also identify this as a critical issue?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?

    Hopefully enough to ensure they never get elected again.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2015

    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?

    In 2010 the membership voted for David Miliband, the most right wing of the 5 candidates. They may well do so again. Most of all they want to win again.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    On Topic:

    "Did Labour's polls show a different picture to the published newspaper ones? Since the election there have been claims that the Tories polls showed results closer to the actual outcome - did Labour's, and if not, do you have any thoughts on why?"

    I'd refer to the Labour uncut piece published the weekend before polling day which listed all sorts of concerns in the Lab campaign and ask how accurate it was to reality at that point.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Main question I would ask is to what extent, if any, did Labour's polling and/or FG indicate the Edstone was a vote winner?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?

    In 2010 the membership voted for David Miliband, the most right wing of the 5 candidates. They may well do so again. Most of all they want to win again.
    OK - I won't bet on him!

    Thanks,
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    ICM poll in June 2010 had figures of Con 39 Lab 31 LD 21

    The Tories are doomed. Doomed, I tell yeah.
    Broken sleazy Tories on the slide...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Why do you think that the published polls were at such variance with the final result?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2015

    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?

    In 2010 the membership voted for David Miliband, the most right wing of the 5 candidates. They may well do so again. Most of all they want to win again.
    Again, only because of David's personal qualities (the fact he was the most polished media performer and his experience). That was the reason people thought David would "win again", not because people think ultra-Blairite policies would do it. By contrast, Liz is by far the most lacking of the main contenders in the experience category, and it's highly debateable whether she's good in the media.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    OFF-TOPIC
    @Danny565 Thank you for replying to my question on the previous thread. A good answer and very interesting. My own reply is on previous thread.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    How many owen jones-types are there in the labour membership... this 1 member 1 vote surely makes Jezza a decent bet doesn't it?

    (no idea who OJ is supporting by the way) but if you are self-selecting enough to be a Lab member today, surely there's a fair number of serious lefties in there?

    In 2010 the membership voted for David Miliband, the most right wing of the 5 candidates. They may well do so again. Most of all they want to win again.
    Again, only because of David's personal qualities (the fact he was the most polished media performer and his experience). That was the reason people thought David would "win again", not because people think ultra-Blairite policies would do it. By contrast, Liz is by far the most lacking of the main contenders in the experience category, and it's highly debateable whether she's good in the media.
    We can only speculate as to why the members voted as they did. I think Liz will do well on the hustings, but we shall see. The newsnight special is Thursday I believe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Do you think that the inaccurate national polling adversely affected Labour's campaign by (a) causing a misallocation of resources or (b) energising the Tory vote?

    What I have in mind is the consequence of the poll in the Indyref showing Yes ahead and the galvanising effect that had on no voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    If the discrepancy between the pollster's model of the general public and the reality was key to their mistakes and between 2015 and 2020 public sector employment falls another million, private sector employment grows another 2m and the number of pensioners increase by a million what do Labour have to do to make it worthwhile turning up?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Why were the Scottish polls - including the Ashcroft constituency polls - so accurate, especially when compared with polling in the rest of the UK.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
    Although worth pointing out the Julian Calendar is so 1752 :)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Alistair said:

    Why were the Scottish polls - including the Ashcroft constituency polls - so accurate, especially when compared with polling in the rest of the UK.

    No shy Tories in Scotland !! - Certainly not the folks in my neck of the woods.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Alistair said:

    Why were the Scottish polls - including the Ashcroft constituency polls - so accurate, especially when compared with polling in the rest of the UK.

    The SNP had an extremely high lead in all demographics, so the differential turnout did not matter that much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Yet more evidence that if UKIP did not exist Cameron would have to invent them: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11674871/Only-15-per-cent-of-Conservative-party-members-would-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html

    There will undoubtedly be stresses and strains in the Parliamentary Party but once again the conclusion has to be that the Tory party is more united behind Cameron than it has been behind anyone since Thatcher was in her pomp.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A Labour MP independently makes the same argument as Dan Hodges today:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/06/if-labour-doesnt-take-itself-seriously-no-one-else-will/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015
    My comment on the ICM poll, since it uses the failed methodology of the pre-election polls it goes straight to the bin.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
    Although worth pointing out the Julian Calendar is so 1752 :)
    The government owes me 9 working days...at my normal charge out rate plus interest...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    DavidL said:

    Yet more evidence that if UKIP did not exist Cameron would have to invent them: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11674871/Only-15-per-cent-of-Conservative-party-members-would-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html

    There will undoubtedly be stresses and strains in the Parliamentary Party but once again the conclusion has to be that the Tory party is more united behind Cameron than it has been behind anyone since Thatcher was in her pomp.

    As a Conservative Party member I very much agree with you David. There are some very loud voices on Conservative blogs with very anti EU views and one could be forgiven for thinking that they represent what the membership feels. As poll after poll of Party members shows David Cameron is not thought to be the "devil incarnate" but is much respected if not quite loved and adored in the way Maggie was. Of course in the Country at large the EU does not play the decisive way in which the vast majority of Conservative voters act in the polling station.

  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
    And Kaiser (?), and a biblical quotation "Render unto Caesar ... " (i.e. Plaster his wall for him ?)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited June 2015
    Question:

    How do Labour appeal to those more likely to vote - (Richer, older, more ABC, less DE the analysis suggests), whilst carrying on about topics such as tuition fees, the 'bedroom' tax and zero hours contracts which affect people in direct opposition to their place on the aforementioned likelihood to vote spectrum.

    The question relates to England and Wales really, Scotland is a whole another kettle of fish.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    GeoffM said:

    Question: Who was the superior general - Caesar or Hannibal?

    I think the more interesting question is who left the best legacy.

    Hannibal: a cannibalistic serial killer; the leader of the 'A Team'
    Caesar: a salad; a boring play

    No contest, really.
    You've forgotten: a method of childbirth and for Americans, a cocktail.
    And the word Tsar, which is reflects his significance in history

    Edit: and the Julian calender...
    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
    And August (if you're counting July)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    If the discrepancy between the pollster's model of the general public and the reality was key to their mistakes and between 2015 and 2020 public sector employment falls another million, private sector employment grows another 2m and the number of pensioners increase by a million what do Labour have to do to make it worthwhile turning up?

    A lot of those millions are contentious. What if the million extra pensioners become increasingly concerned about their health care? What if the million public sector jobs become replaced by serfs on ZHC employed by Serco, Interserve and G4 with similar jobs but less pay and worse conditions as part of the million new private sector jobs? What if those private sector jobs evaporate due to a fresh recession?

    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr Hodges is bang on.
    Why is Jeremy Corbyn a candidate for the Labour leadership? Because the parliamentary Labour Party still feels the need to indulge the Labour Left. Why does it feel the need to indulge the Labour Left? Because it feels the Labour Left still has influence. And as soon as you feel someone or something has influence over you, then they do have influence over you.

    We will see this in the coming weeks. As the debate unfolds, Jeremy Corbyn will become the new Nick Clegg. “I agree with Nick”, will become the catchphrase of the contest. Actually, it will be more subtly phrased. “I don’t usually agree with Jeremy, but I have to say that on this…”
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418
    Kieran, hi! Could you please ask Mr Morris a) how often did he poll, b) who did he poll, and c) what were the results of each poll he did? I would really like to know the answers to those questions and if there is anything I can do to get him to answer them, please tell me,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    DavidL said:

    If the discrepancy between the pollster's model of the general public and the reality was key to their mistakes and between 2015 and 2020 public sector employment falls another million, private sector employment grows another 2m and the number of pensioners increase by a million what do Labour have to do to make it worthwhile turning up?

    A lot of those millions are contentious. What if the million extra pensioners become increasingly concerned about their health care? What if the million public sector jobs become replaced by serfs on ZHC employed by Serco, Interserve and G4 with similar jobs but less pay and worse conditions as part of the million new private sector jobs? What if those private sector jobs evaporate due to a fresh recession?

    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.
    You are providing answers to the questions and answers there certainly are. The questions really are how does Labour persuade an extra 1m pensioners to vote for them? How does Labour get a better share of those in work, not in a Union but poor?

    These questions should focus Labour's policy choices and priorities. They have to change the trends that gave Labour a shellacking this time.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    DavidL said:

    We also know that the Tory internal polling was much more accurate if not spot on.

    No we don't. We can reasonably surmise from David Cameron's last-week campaign stops that the Conservatives knew about the miserable state of the Lib Dems, but we have zero evidence as to what they knew about Tory-Labour marginals.

    On another note:

    Isn't it funny that the polls currently being released are all in line with the result, while the ones before weren't? I mean, that ICM could be a 41-point score for the Tories if it's as wrong as the elections polls. Not funny from a Bayesian perspective of course, but I don't think that this perspective is relevant, and if it is it's a very bad thing about polling in the long-range after elections.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418
    edited June 2015



    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?

    So we have Roman months, Viking days, Chinese years, French lengths, American billions. About the only thing we invented was gravity...:-(

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    RobD said:

    O/T & FPT:

    Nice work if you can get it.....Nigel Farage seen on the streets of St Peter port today, just off Cunard's Queen Elizabeth where he's giving a talk.... (last time I was on Cunard Rolf Harris was giving a talk - and very entertaining he was too - I later found out the police were raiding his home as we crossed the Atlantic....)

    I bet he wanted to get off promptly!!!
    You might have worded that a little more carefully..
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Question for James Morris:

    "Was there a split inside Labour during the election campaign, and was EdM making the decisions and ignoring certain of his advisors as the Brand and EdStone episodes towards the end of the campaign seemed both bizarre and desperate?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    RobD said:

    O/T & FPT:

    Nice work if you can get it.....Nigel Farage seen on the streets of St Peter port today, just off Cunard's Queen Elizabeth where he's giving a talk.... (last time I was on Cunard Rolf Harris was giving a talk - and very entertaining he was too - I later found out the police were raiding his home as we crossed the Atlantic....)

    I bet he wanted to get off promptly!!!
    You might have worded that a little more carefully..
    To be clear, I meant disembark!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2015
    Is it reasonable that during any election campaign that opinion polls other than private ones (specifically and only those for the political parties taking part in the election) should remain unpublished?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2015



    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.

    Now here is something I agree with you on!

    Even as one of the few who was pessimistic enough to predict on and off a Tory majority since Xmas, I'm a bit mystified by how confident the Tories now are. They certainly exceeded expectations, but it was hardly some historically great victory, and I do think the fact that people were too embarrassed to tell the pollsters they were voting for the Tories til the last minute should be quite concerning for them -- it doesn't make their victory any less "deserved" because a vote is a vote at the end of the day, but still, if many Tory voters were that embarrassed and reluctant about it then it does rather suggest it won't necessarily take all that much for them to ditch the party in the coming years. The Tories are clearly not a party riding on a Blair-level or SNP-level of adoration.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Financier said:

    Question for James Morris:

    "Was there a split inside Labour during the election campaign, and was EdM making the decisions and ignoring certain of his advisors as the Brand and EdStone episodes towards the end of the campaign seemed both bizarre and desperate?"

    Didn't the Ed Stone go through 10 meetings?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    QUESTION

    Some have a theory that Ukip are now a meaningful rival to Labour in the North of England, and indeed it's hard to make sense of the meme that Labour is existentially threatened without believing that Ukip would have to do even more damage to Labour than in 2015. Are you worried about Ukip in the North of England (and elsewhere)? Do their voters look like they'll stick with Ukip?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Speedy said:

    My comment on the ICM poll, since it uses the failed methodology of the pre-election polls it goes straight to the bin.

    quite so ... new methodology is like to be much worse for Labour.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418

    Nigel Farage...just off Cunard's Queen Elizabeth where he's giving a talk....

    Would never have been allowed in the days of Alan Whicker...

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    At the start of January 2015, Jim Murphy stated that the Labour party had identified 190,000 supporters who voted YES in the referendum through a database analysis and that each person would receive a communication. Where was this exercise undertaken and how successful was it?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Danny565 said:



    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.

    Now here is something I agree with you on!

    Even as one of the few who was pessimistic enough to predict on and off a Tory majority since Xmas, I'm a bit mystified by how confident the Tories now are. They certainly exceeded expectations, but it was hardly some historically great victory, and I do think the fact that people were too embarrassed to tell the pollsters they were voting for the Tories til the last minute should be quite concerning for them -- it doesn't make their victory any less "deserved" because a vote is a vote at the end of the day, but still, if many Tory voters were that embarrassed and reluctant about it then it does rather suggest it won't necessarily take all that much for them to ditch the party in the coming years. The Tories are not a party riding on a Blair-level or SNP-level of adoration.
    I observe that they are doing well due to the tendency to engage in short-range expectation formation.

    In 2005-10, when there was a majority government, the consensus was reasonably sure 2010 would produce another majority government. (Let's say 85 per cent confidence.)
    In 2010-15, when there was a hung parliament, the consensus was reasonably sure 2015 would produce a hung parliament.
    Now in 2015 there is a Conservative majority, the consensus here seems reasonably confident there'll be another one. But it looks historically like expectation formation is actually really short-range.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Support for the SNP’s supposed desires, however, came from an interesting source: English Conservative backbenchers. In particular, Sir Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough) spoke with relish of his desire to see Scotland stand on its own two economic feet. “My aim is not to trap the SNP, or call their bluff, or reveal their timidity,” he insisted, innocently. “I genuinely want to give the Scots what they want: freedom to run their own affairs – and not to blame others if things go wrong!”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11676620/Sketch-The-SNPs-demands...-championed-by-a-Tory
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    antifrank said:

    A Labour MP independently makes the same argument as Dan Hodges today:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/06/if-labour-doesnt-take-itself-seriously-no-one-else-will/

    Some of the responses seem to be channelling Michael Foot: "I think we need to have MP's who are passionate, like the SNP, and who really believe that socialism has answers to the problems society faces today. To refute the lies of Tory austerity. To take on Angela Merkel and her right wing agenda."
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    "How does Labour maintain a coherent, centre-left position that will please it's core vote, while not alienating swing voters with hyperbolistic impressions of the Tory opposition, or patronising appeals to the electorate, both of which are ineffective?"

    "Is it possible to try to recover support in the south, while confronting the SNP at the same time?"

    I think the answer to these questions is 42.
    I am not a number: And definitely note the answer you are referring to!

    On-topic:

    Would Labour poll better if it focused policies on both England & Wales whilst treating Scotland in the same vein as The Province (i.e. not stand their but ally with like-minded locals)? Would it not be better to ignore and let the SNATs stew in their own fluids...?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Support for the SNP’s supposed desires, however, came from an interesting source: English Conservative backbenchers. In particular, Sir Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough) spoke with relish of his desire to see Scotland stand on its own two economic feet. “My aim is not to trap the SNP, or call their bluff, or reveal their timidity,” he insisted, innocently. “I genuinely want to give the Scots what they want: freedom to run their own affairs – and not to blame others if things go wrong!”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11676620/Sketch-The-SNPs-demands...-championed-by-a-Tory

    I'm dipping in and out of the H of C Scotland debate, just going trough the divisions at the moment, what a shambles, at this rate someone could propose an amendment bringing back hanging in Scotland and it might slip through. I wish they would introduce electronic voting, then if an MP happens to get caught short in the toilet they could still vote via their ipad, that's assuming they don't fumble it and drop it down the toilet.

    I think the SNP are hoping they end up with Full Fiscal Barnett !!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    calum said:

    I think the SNP are hoping they end up with Full Fiscal Barnett !!

    Yup

    @blairmcdougall: We know ending Barnett is bad, not just because experts say it means £10bn cuts, but because Nicola Sturgeon says so. http://t.co/xO0X2PhWHn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Danny565 said:



    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.

    Now here is something I agree with you on!

    Even as one of the few who was pessimistic enough to predict on and off a Tory majority since Xmas, I'm a bit mystified by how confident the Tories now are. They certainly exceeded expectations, but it was hardly some historically great victory, and I do think the fact that people were too embarrassed to tell the pollsters they were voting for the Tories til the last minute should be quite concerning for them -- it doesn't make their victory any less "deserved" because a vote is a vote at the end of the day, but still, if many Tory voters were that embarrassed and reluctant about it then it does rather suggest it won't necessarily take all that much for them to ditch the party in the coming years. The Tories are clearly not a party riding on a Blair-level or SNP-level of adoration.
    As someone foolish enough to think a Labour majority was a possibility in February of 2015 obviously my insights needs must be taken with a grain of salt, but I really do think it's just as simple as the flush of unexpected victory and a cadre of Labour leadership candidates who are, at first glance, not that exceptional.

    That said, increasing their vote share and sets is fairly historic after a first term isn't it?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418
    EPG said:

    Danny565 said:



    No party is destined to rule forever, and there is an awful lot of hubris about for a Tory party with a wafer thin majority.

    Now here is something I agree with you on!

    Even as one of the few who was pessimistic enough to predict on and off a Tory majority since Xmas, I'm a bit mystified by how confident the Tories now are. They certainly exceeded expectations, but it was hardly some historically great victory, and I do think the fact that people were too embarrassed to tell the pollsters they were voting for the Tories til the last minute should be quite concerning for them -- it doesn't make their victory any less "deserved" because a vote is a vote at the end of the day, but still, if many Tory voters were that embarrassed and reluctant about it then it does rather suggest it won't necessarily take all that much for them to ditch the party in the coming years. The Tories are not a party riding on a Blair-level or SNP-level of adoration.
    I observe that they are doing well due to the tendency to engage in short-range expectation formation.

    In 2005-10, when there was a majority government, the consensus was reasonably sure 2010 would produce another majority government. (Let's say 85 per cent confidence.)
    In 2010-15, when there was a hung parliament, the consensus was reasonably sure 2015 would produce a hung parliament.
    Now in 2015 there is a Conservative majority, the consensus here seems reasonably confident there'll be another one. But it looks historically like expectation formation is actually really short-range.
    The best predictor of tomorrow's weather is today's weather...

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    On topic

    Did Labour poll or focus group the non-doms nomnishambles? A policy approximately nobody cared about?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Did Labour poll their policies and then promote them, or promote them and then poll them?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How many polls showing Ed losing to anybody else were suppressed internally so as not to upset him?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Was any polling conducted in the seats of Shadow Cabinet members - inc Ed Balls.

    What % of LD voters did Labour expect to gain from their own analysis? Ditto losses to UKIP?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    ITV election night - Lord Mandy "It is clear that David Cameron has once again lost a general election, as he did in 2010 and indeed the Conservatives have not won a majority in 23 years"

    I might make it to 2020 on this one night.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2015
    1. Did anyone ever say "EICIPM" or 'tick tock' in their war-room?

    2. How much weight did the Lab team place on a famous political blogger's betting position on Lab seats vs Tories on SPIN, the red liberal wedge & the many reasons given why the Tories couldn't win?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Did anyone ever say "EICIPM" or 'tick tock' in their war-room.

    Did anyone quote Jack W of politicalbetting.com in the War Room?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What impact did the US pollster/campaigning experts have on Labour's ground game or polling priorities?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    viewcode said:



    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?

    So we have Roman months, Viking days, Chinese years, French lengths, American billions. About the only thing we invented was gravity...:-(

    It will all be fixed in the UKIP manifesto, I am confident to predict that we will maintain measurement in pints and stones, bushels and furlongs....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    We will no longer use 0s though.

    viewcode said:



    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?

    So we have Roman months, Viking days, Chinese years, French lengths, American billions. About the only thing we invented was gravity...:-(

    It will all be fixed in the UKIP manifesto, I am confident to predict that we will maintain measurement in pints and stones, bushels and furlongs....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It will all be fixed in the UKIP manifesto, I am confident to predict that we will maintain measurement in pints and stones, bushels and furlongs....

    The furlong/firkin/fortnight system
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SLAB have finally released membership numbers, there were 13,000 before the election but this number has apparently fallen, with them kicking out members who voted SNP and folks cancelling their memberships:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/no-members-no-money-why-going-it-alone-more-difficult-route-scottish-labour-you

    Given the lack of SLAB activists on the ground in Scotland, were resources redeployed to Scotland to assist Jim and his team? A Labour insider (Mr IOS) posted that there was a last ditched attempt to save 5-10 seats in Scotland, was this the case? If so, what seats?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Oh dear just seen my MP is Chair of the Blair Witch Project and Commander in Chief of the New Labour Taliban.

    Enough to ruin your holiday.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Oh dear just seen my MP is Chair of the Blair Witch Project and Commander in Chief of the New Labour Taliban.

    Enough to ruin your holiday.

    My MP is thankfully on #TeamBurnham
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited June 2015

    Oh dear just seen my MP is Chair of the Blair Witch Project and Commander in Chief of the New Labour Taliban.

    Enough to ruin your holiday.

    Sticks and stones.
    Who coined this Taliban thing? Properly offensive.

    Which is not to say the witch thing is any better.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    EPG said:

    QUESTION

    Some have a theory that Ukip are now a meaningful rival to Labour in the North of England, and indeed it's hard to make sense of the meme that Labour is existentially threatened without believing that Ukip would have to do even more damage to Labour than in 2015. Are you worried about Ukip in the North of England (and elsewhere)? Do their voters look like they'll stick with Ukip?

    Have you watched tonight's news?

    It's a string of stories about Northern Muslims going to fight for the Islamic State.

    As Labour's face becomes increasingly similar to those people, what do you think the consequence will be?

    And it will be Labour's self inflicted wound. They have spent too long playing the politics of identity.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Plato said:

    We will no longer use 0s though.

    Zero is an import from Islam or Hindu or something. We don't need no stinking immigrant numbers.

    Zero must be evaluated on a points basis, and if there is a homegrown number that can be trained to do the things that zero can do then we should use that, rather than just import foreign numbers willy-nilly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Danny565 said:

    Oh dear just seen my MP is Chair of the Blair Witch Project and Commander in Chief of the New Labour Taliban.

    Enough to ruin your holiday.

    My MP is thankfully on #TeamBurnham
    Supporting scum then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    chestnut said:

    EPG said:

    QUESTION

    Some have a theory that Ukip are now a meaningful rival to Labour in the North of England, and indeed it's hard to make sense of the meme that Labour is existentially threatened without believing that Ukip would have to do even more damage to Labour than in 2015. Are you worried about Ukip in the North of England (and elsewhere)? Do their voters look like they'll stick with Ukip?

    Have you watched tonight's news?

    It's a string of stories about Northern Muslims going to fight for the Islamic State.

    As Labour's face becomes increasingly similar to those people, what do you think the consequence will be?

    And it will be Labour's self inflicted wound. They have spent too long playing the politics of identity.

    So long as they don't come back, one would have thought ISIS could be a wonderful way of separating out those who want to be here, and who are willing to conform to Western ideals, and those who would rather live in the caliphate.

    It seems bizarre that we try and prevent people who don't want to live here.. from leaving...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Zero is an import from Islam or Hindu or something. We don't need no stinking immigrant numbers.

    Zero must be evaluated on a points basis, and if there is a homegrown number that can be trained to do the things that zero can do then we should use that, rather than just import foreign numbers willy-nilly.

    We could have a contest to see which representation we prefer. We just need a suitable voting system...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418

    viewcode said:



    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?

    So we have Roman months, Viking days, Chinese years, French lengths, American billions. About the only thing we invented was gravity...:-(

    It will all be fixed in the UKIP manifesto, I am confident to predict that we will maintain measurement in pints and stones, bushels and furlongs....
    We were better off when we had abacuses...:-)

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Jonathan said:

    Oh dear just seen my MP is Chair of the Blair Witch Project and Commander in Chief of the New Labour Taliban.

    Enough to ruin your holiday.

    Sticks and stones.
    Who coined this Taliban thing? Properly offensive.

    Which is not to say the witch thing is any better.
    You dont think Kendall is a Witch?

    I would be happy to carry out a dunking to be sure as I could be wrong
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    chestnut said:

    EPG said:

    QUESTION

    Some have a theory that Ukip are now a meaningful rival to Labour in the North of England, and indeed it's hard to make sense of the meme that Labour is existentially threatened without believing that Ukip would have to do even more damage to Labour than in 2015. Are you worried about Ukip in the North of England (and elsewhere)? Do their voters look like they'll stick with Ukip?

    Have you watched tonight's news?

    It's a string of stories about Northern Muslims going to fight for the Islamic State.

    As Labour's face becomes increasingly similar to those people, what do you think the consequence will be?

    And it will be Labour's self inflicted wound. They have spent too long playing the politics of identity.

    I don't think the news story will have any consequences for Ukip in 2020 at all.

    I don't think it says anything in particular about whether the remaining Labour WWC voters will go Ukip next time, or vice versa.

    Incidentally, I think this kind of rhetoric is unnecessary and divisive. Most people with Muslim faces have nothing like jihad in their hearts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Scott_P said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zero is an import from Islam or Hindu or something. We don't need no stinking immigrant numbers.

    Zero must be evaluated on a points basis, and if there is a homegrown number that can be trained to do the things that zero can do then we should use that, rather than just import foreign numbers willy-nilly.

    We could have a contest to see which representation we prefer. We just need a suitable voting system...
    Nothing will alter the natives' vote.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    viewcode said:



    And the rather delightful month of July. After all what have the Romans ever done for us?

    So we have Roman months, Viking days, Chinese years, French lengths, American billions. About the only thing we invented was gravity...:-(


    "About the only thing we invented was gravity."

    Well that brought us down to earth.

  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    DavidL said:

    Picking up on Carlotta's question it would be very informative to have an accurate picture of what Labour's private polling was showing because we have had 2 very different versions of the story to date.

    According to Dan Hodges Ed spent the evening writing his victory speech and was encouraged to do so even after the exit poll came out on the basis it was wrong (as indeed it was but not in a good way for Labour). According to some of those involved in the polling Ed at least would have known that he was 6% behind on the night and should have been aware that victory was simply not possible.

    Both these versions simply cannot be right.

    We also know that the Tory internal polling was much more accurate if not spot on. If Labour's was well out it would be interesting to know why it was thought that they got it wrong and the Tories got it right: do they buy in to the Messina analysis that the pollsters' modelling of the population was simply wrong and based on what the population looked like in 2010.

    For the conservatives it was canvassing results. They showed very accurately what was happening. But there was disbelief because of the belief in the overall accuracy of the main polls. Labour's canvassing results would have showed more or less to them what the Conservatives showed to their party. But again, there would have been disbelief at the mismatch.

    The canvassing results *must* have shown for Labour that they werent doing materially better than they were in 2010. That the wild leads shown by the ashcroft polls in the marginals were pure poppycock.

    I'll repeat what i have said before. An experienced campaign manager/co ordinator can look at a set of canvassing results, compare them with previous results and give an extremely accurate assessment of what is going to happen. Trend is key. I can only guess that the constituency canvassing results would have been locked down to prevent anyone other than a handful of people at the top of the party being able to look at what was happening.

    What throws me is Nick Palmer. He has done this so many times now, but he got his predictions staggeringly wrong. The only reason why i think was that as the candidate, it can be tempted to comfort respond to voters who arent really planning on voting for you.

    But surely these marginal MPs on majorities of a few hundred, canvassing their constituencies like men possessed would see it was close and share this info with their colleagues.

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