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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in the LAB leadership battle Andy Burnham sends a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in the LAB leadership battle Andy Burnham sends a text to party members
As Lynton Crosby always says – message matters most and we saw the success of that in the final weeks of the GE15 campaign. So it’s against this that we should judge the 3 or 4 still in the race for the Labour leadership.
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In fact, ABWNBLOTLP.
He has too little support in London, and he has too little support among normal people.
https://twitter.com/LizforLeader/status/603929620933713920
"This Labour party - best when we are boldest, best when we are united, best when we are Labour."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3147448.stm
Is anyone at their best when they're taking on the challenges of the past?
ie Burnham doesn't have exclusive access to the official membership list?
Or if not how has Burnham got the text numbers?
'Are you suggesting Andy doesn't speak human?'
No, just rubbish.
Burnham looks and sounds towards the old Labour end of the spectrum.
Kendall looks and sounds like a Blairite - only issue will be does she have enough weight.
Cooper = the middle option.
If anything, I actually think Burnham would be the best choice for places like that since for all his flaws he sounds like a humanbeing, something different to the metropolitian "professional politicians" which really turns people in the small towns off of Labour.
David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox Dec 13
Looking at the hyperbolic, frenzied tweets from the cybernats tonight clearly the snp are scared sh**less of @jimmurphymp
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson Dec 13
Great news about Jim Murphy. Blairites always were good at winning elections. Now let the restoration begin!
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Dec 13
Nationalists trying to pretend election of @jimmurphymp is a disaster for Labour. It isn't. Good day for Labour, good day for the Union.
Meanwhile Iain Gray to be caretaker leader for SLAB. I'm guessing everyone's hyperbole buttons will be well muted.
Burnham and Kendall have rubbish leadership election campaigns.
It's always "they spent too much last time", or "Miliband would be useless as PM", or "they'd shower Scotland with goodies", or "they'll let immigrants in again".
Simon Yates is currently 33-1 on Paddy Power to win the White Jersey in the Tour de France.
Given his current form (5th in Dauphiné. with one stage left) this is very good value.
There are three who can stop him. Fabio Aru is more talented but he did the Giro this year and I can't see him being recovered to challenge properly in the Tour, personally I think that if Astana do ride him in the Tour they will damage his development.
Thibaut Pinot was third overall in last years Tour and should be a hot tip for this. But he has really done nothing this year and I don't think he's going to repeat what happened last year (just another French "great white hope" like Rolland tbh.
The biggest threat is of course Nairu Quintana. He's not really having the sort of season you would have predicted a couple of years ago but he's still the class act and one of the favourites for the overall. But a lot can happen over three weeks and if he crashes out, gets ill or just doesn't have the right form, the door could bee open for Yates.
Sadly no Each/Way option which would, I think, be free money. But at 33/1 Yates is definitely worth a few quid. BTW, if you're new to cycling betting don't put your money on his twin brother Adam by mistake...
If you want an each way bet on the Yellow, last years runner up Jean-Christophe Peraud is currently 200-1 on Paddy Power. No demonstrable form in the Dauphiné but he didn't last year. The value is just too good not to put a couple of quid each way on this. Rui Costa at 150-1 might be a value e/w bet but much less so than Peraud as he prefers to go for stages on the Tour.
Harsher punishment for parole violators, Andy - and er, world peace…!
I've also had letters from Andy and Liz (specifically as a losing candidate) - nothing from Yvette or Jeremy as yet. (None of this has decided or even tilted my voting intention - it's all too generalised.)
It's that 'and'. It makes it sound as if even if he's elected, there's a chance that the changes will take place while he's on holiday or locked in the lavatory or something. And then having said that, he weakens it all by not saying what any of them are and casting around for ideas.
That said, the fundamental problem is not the message, it's the medium. Texts are too short to be able to get across a message that doesn't already have a strong brand or narrative behind it. Starting from scratch, he needs e-mail, letters, a link to a website or something similar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aVl4fyWv6w
In a discussion about Nazi occupations, you think 'Defence provision' is a smart card to play?
Talk about clueless.....
The Crown Dependencies raise their own public revenue and do not receive subsidies from or pay contributions to the UK. They do, however, make annual voluntary contributions towards the costs of their defence and international representation by the UK. The government in Jersey funds a Territorial Army Royal Engineers’ Squadron on the Island. In Guernsey, the government remits to HM Treasury the income from passport fees and meets the maintenance costs of the Alderney breakwater. The Isle of Man government makes annual cash payments calculated according to an agreement signed in 1994.
https://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/about/moj/our-responsibilities/Background_Briefing_on_the_Crown_Dependencies2.pdf
As Lynton Crosby has said - people do not vote on policy but they do vote on what policy says about what you stand for.
http://guernseypress.com/news/2009/08/13/defence-contribution-worthless-says-peer/
And of course, not being part of the UK seems to suit Jersey and Guernsey just fine. Yet sitting there, outside the UK, you demand to tell Scotland it should not be outside the UK.
Indeed the value of the contribution from Jersey appears to be £1m a year.
http://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2006/08/07/payment-to-uk-defence-budget-could-be-cut/
This is 0.027% of GDP. Hardly a NATO compliant contribution.
The Germans had a concentration camp on Alderney where many Polish prisoners died.
I assume all the candidates get access to the same db of members and supporters, so texts, emails and letter can be sent? Do the deputy campaigns get the same level of access?
Are there data protection issues, and what processes have been put in place to prevent issues occurring?
Are there limits on election spending for this election?
(The same questions should be asked of the Lib Dem campaigns, and of any notional future Conservative one).
The reason that toff bashing is a looser is that people know that toffs (as Labour defines them) don't run their lives any more. The new Upper 10,000 are the quangocrats who move effortlessly between 6 figure jobs, with no possibility of being held to account for their failures. And the Labour party is their party....
Bashing profit etc works less well in a world dominated, increasingly, by small businesses. For many people, where they work isn't a corporate colossus with infinite money, it is a fifty person company. And they all know and talk to the owner.
Another thing to think of - in our daily, ordinary lives, most people find those who boast about how much money they spend to be gross fools. So the "we will/have spent x billions on y" instantly conjures an image of waste.
Long-term readers may remember this from 2004:
QUOTE
BBC Radio 4's Today programme asked listeners which new legislation they'd most like to see in the UK, and Stephen Pound (L) said he'd introduce it as a Private Members' Bill. Listeners voted for a bill that would "authorise homeowners to use any means to defend their home from intruders". Controversy ensues, Pound says "The people have spoken, the bastards!"
END-QUOTE
http://rodcorp.typepad.com/rodcorp/2004/01/the_people_have.html
Diane Abbott
Tessa Jowell
Sadiq Khan
David Lammy
Gareth Thomas
Christian Wolmar
The shortlisting committee (made up by 3 NEC members and 3 members from London Regional Board) shortlisted all 6 who received the minimum 5 nominations from CLPs needed to advance to longlist stage.
Total number of nominations per candidate (according to David Boothroyd’s tally) was
Jowell 63
Khan 40
Lammy 15
Abbott 8
Wolmar 6
Thomas 6
rest 0
Each CLP could make 2 nominations. If they decided to make only 1 nom, that nomination must be for a woman. Therefore the first vote was always Jowell vs Abbott. So Jowell and Khan didn’t really compete against each other at this stage apart in the 8 CLPs where Abbott outvoted Jowell for the first nom.
Dulwich CLP decided not to make the second nomination.
Scotland opted to join the UK.
Have you not paraded enough of your ignorance for one day, or have you got more you would like to display?
I see malcomg has tried a 'the Brits are as bad as the Nazis' again.....
Con 30.1%
NDP 29.1%
Liberal 28.0%
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
But you exposed yourself as a hypocrite, resident in a non-UK territory trying to tell Scotland whether or not to remain within the UK.
I'm surprised you continue to embarrass yourself with further posts and futile straw men attempts. But then shame and logic are so often lacking in the Loyalist mindset.
Have you ever seen Goering Street?
I wanna be the leader
Can I be the leader?
Can I? I can?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee I'm the leader
I'm the leader
OK what shall we do?
Roger McGough
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/information-about-leadership-and-deputy-leadership-elections
In terms of who can vote:
" Voting Unlike previous leadership elections, this election will be held on a one-person-one-vote basis. There are three sets of people who can vote:
1. Labour party members
2 Affiliated supporters — people who’ve signed up as a Labour Party supporter through one of our affiliated organisations or unions
3. Registered supporters — people who’ve registered that they support the Labour Party by signing up online and paying a one-off minimum fee of £3 "
http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/reconcentrado.htm
I shall spell it out in simple steps so you may reflect on your stupidity.
In a discussion about Nazi Occupations you argue that the Channel Islands (Occupied by the Nazis in WWII ) should be grateful to the British for their "free" - (untrue) Defence.
Has it sunk in yet?
On the hypocrisy point - are only people resident in Scotland allowed an opinion on the fate of the country of their birth?
If so, why do you come to a UK blog to make that point?
Wouldn't you be happier discussing it with Scottish residents on a Scotland only blog?
As you appear to imply others should?
http://old.qi.com/talk/viewtopic.php?start=0&t=3418
Of course a great many people are terribly upset about it, but since the traffickers sell is not 'Pay me and get to Australia' but 'Pay me and end up in a camp in Papua New Guinea' business has collapsed......
http://m.hrw.org/world-report/2014/country-chapters/eritrea
It sounds as if the entirety of Eritrea is a concentration camp already.
http://www.english.rfi.fr/africa/20150613-migrants-sitin-france-italy-border-french-police-block
Paris?
Frankfurt?
.....London.
Of course all the major countries are colossal hypocrites when it comes to 'tax transparency'.....when is the US going to sort out Delaware, for example?
STATES RIGHTS! Move along - nothing to see.....
The sooner the message gets out that you will be trafficked to a camp in Tunisia, the sooner the flow will slow....
I have had similar communications from both Liz Kendall and Yvette Cooper (not yet Burnham or Corbyn).
Of the candidates, only Liz Kendall is looking forwards to the 2020 election to the political landscape at that time. Free schools will have been going for nearly a decade by that point and not easily abolished. A more pragmatic than ideological response will be needed for instance. Similarly the "bedroom tax" will be long established as will the benefit cap. Simply promising abolition is trying to revisit the lost election of 2015. It is not a winning formula.
All political sloganeering sounds trite and banal in the cold light of day, but this far out from an election themes matter more than policy, though there does need to be some consistency and specifics to policy by then.
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/reforms-passed-today-by-labours-scottish-executive-committee
In terms of regional list seats, the process has been opened up:
" We must accept that the party has had an issue in the past in attracting more diverse backgrounds - we want to open that process up to people from the third sector, from business, from trade unions, from academia. If progressive people share our values of solidarity and equality then it is right that we do our level best to encourage them to stand as candidates. We will reserve places on the shortlist for sitting MSP’s but at the end of the day it will be for individual party members to decide the overall ranking. "
This opens the way for Jim Murphy, Blair McDougall and any ex-MPS to fight for a place on the list. Interestingly party members will decide the overall rankings, I assume this will be done at a regional level. As many of SLAB's 15 existing consticuency, are likely to lose their seats, the battle for the 20 to 25 list seats is going to be intense.
I do not think that Tunisia would be keen on being the EU's Manus island. I think landing people back in the country of embarkation is the only option.
Miss Plato, I'm dubious of the notion that being especially emotive should be seen as a virtue. Still, at least that makes sense. I recall Balls saying he used to cry when watching the Antiques Roadshow, which came across as Milibandesque in its weirdness.
And Fraser Nelson. I actually like him as political commentator (despite not agreeing with him all too much) but my god, as a Scot he should know that if Blairism is going to down badly anywhere, it's probably Scotland. Also Murphy is a personality vaccum.
It's like back in 2008 when everyone in Labour convinced themselves that the public would hate Boris, just because hardcore Labour people didn't like his personality/views.
ISIS for example base their slave trading and deportation of civilians on the life and actions of Mohammad, though there was plenty of prededent before then.
Easy starter: who was the only Roman Emperor to abdicate, by choice?