Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
If anyone can get me evens on Tim Farron and 3/1 on Andy Burnham at the same time I'd be glad to hear it.
It is the so called ''Shy Tory '' vote that will be crucial in this election ....the ''shy Tories '' who are currently flirting with UKIP , but who will return to their Party on election day ; naturally , they are not going to admit that to the pollsters as it would defeat the whole purpose of a ''protest vote '' ...they want to hold Cameron's feet to the fire and make him sweat ; they want him to be grateful for their support , to listen to them in the future and not take them for granted But there is another '' shy Tory '' in this election that could turn out to be of even more importance ...it is the Labour centrists and ''Blairites '' .Indeed , these are the folks who are very unhappy with the move to the Left and away from ''new Labour '' that Miliband has taken , but they are much more concerned that there is a distinct possibility of a weak Labour party being propped up, and in effect ,held to ransom by an odious national Party dedicated to the break up of the UK . THIS ,they will never tolerate ! Millions of Labour centrists are going to be forced to jump ship and support the Tories as the far lessor of two evils and come election day they will pragmatically chose Cameron over Miliband as the only safe and sensible choice ....naturally , they haven't quite made up their minds yet and as such they are telling the pollsters that they will be voting Labour as usual , but when they get into that voting booth they will quietly and decisively make their mark for the Tories .....THIS IS THE SHY TORY VOTER! 20% , or 1 in 5 voters claim not to have yet made up their minds and the Tories are likely to get virtually all of these
12 Apr 2015 13:35
The polls are not a prediction , just a daily snapshot showing , If possible ,a trend ; but when they are showing a tie over three weeks before an election they must be'' read between the lines ''....ergo, it's possible to be hypnotised and seduced by the polls instead of viewing these events through a wide angel lens , rather like a homicide detective who relies too much on narrow scientific evidence instead of an experienced , intuitive ''hunch '' about human nature The electorate outside of Scotland will NEVER tolerate even the mere rumour , hint or sniff of a weak Labour Party being propped up and held to ransom by the Scots Natz; they will NEVER take that risk and will vote Tory as the only safe and sensible choice ; indeed , the polls are like a car engine idling in neutral while they wake up and make up their minds ....when they do, they will, metaphorically speaking , slam that car into gear to burn rubber directly to Tory H Q
==================================
I actually won £ 61, 000 on the confidence in these predictions ...this horny handed son of toil and latter day Fagin confounded the so called experts and beat the bookies !
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit (from the EU)? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
Additionally, can anybody point me in the direction of odds on a Grexit (from the Euro)? I understand the argument that emergency liquidity will be withdrawn at June end (following more perpetual Greek fucking around) and the collapse of Greek banks soon after. But reestablishment of the Drachma is not automatic even after that and I reckon there'll be some delay before Syriza becomes unstupid. So I reckon a bet on Greece still being in the Euro at year end is good value.
The proviso is of course that "in the Euro" is tightly defined: a lot of punters lost money in 2012 when the debt was restructured: technically it was a default, but officially it wasn't, and the bookies took the official view.
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
If anyone can get me evens on Tim Farron and 3/1 on Andy Burnham at the same time I'd be glad to hear it.
A "tissue" is your own estimate of the probabilities for the various runners - though it's not necessarily available for others to bet on! You want to back things that are on offer at bigger prices with bookmakers.
In the olden days, bookmakers would commission tissue prices from various sources and use the combined wisdom to work out what price they were prepared to go. Nowadays it's mostly betfair for horses and Asian markets for soccer, but the process still works for more niche markets like politics.
In practice, if you've been in "the game" for long enough, you end up getting an instinctive feel for value, rather than having to work through the entire field. But it's usually best to check yourself at that point!
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
If anyone can get me evens on Tim Farron and 3/1 on Andy Burnham at the same time I'd be glad to hear it.
A forecast price. Bookmakers would be issued with tissues showing likely market prices (these days, they just look at Betfair). Tissue prices would be drawn up by "odds compilers" which is another disappearing job.
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit (from the EU)? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
Additionally, can anybody point me in the direction of odds on a Grexit (from the Euro)? I understand the argument that emergency liquidity will be withdrawn at June end (following more perpetual Greek fucking around) and the collapse of Greek banks soon after. But reestablishment of the Drachma is not automatic even after that and I reckon there'll be some delay before Syriza becomes unstupid. So I reckon a bet on Greece still being in the Euro at year end is good value.
The proviso is of course that "in the Euro" is tightly defined: a lot of punters lost money in 2012 when the debt was restructured: technically it was a default, but officially it wasn't, and the bookies took the official view.
Thank you. I've just had a look and the official currency one is for end of 2017 (18 months away!): I was hoping for end of 2016. But thank you anyway
Weirdly, Paddy Power also offers a bet on the European Commission issuing an official statement about a Greek default: wouldn't it be the IMF (Lagarde) or ECB (Draghi) or the Eurozone committee (Dutch guy)? Why would EurComm (Juncker) issue an official statement about it?
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit (from the EU)? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
Additionally, can anybody point me in the direction of odds on a Grexit (from the Euro)? I understand the argument that emergency liquidity will be withdrawn at June end (following more perpetual Greek fucking around) and the collapse of Greek banks soon after. But reestablishment of the Drachma is not automatic even after that and I reckon there'll be some delay before Syriza becomes unstupid. So I reckon a bet on Greece still being in the Euro at year end is good value.
The proviso is of course that "in the Euro" is tightly defined: a lot of punters lost money in 2012 when the debt was restructured: technically it was a default, but officially it wasn't, and the bookies took the official view.
Thank you. I've just had a look and the official currency one is for end of 2017 (18 months away!): I was hoping for end of 2016. But thank you anyway
Weirdly, Paddy Power also offers a bet on the European Commission issuing an official statement about a Greek default: wouldn't it be the IMF (Lagarde) or ECB (Draghi) or the Eurozone committee (Dutch guy)? Why would EurComm (Juncker) issue an official statement about it?
Absolutely correct about Salmond although his demolition of Labour in 2011 was pretty comprehensive and thought extraordinary at the time. His highest election rating was 45 per cent some 8 per cent higher than Camerons and his highest opinion poll rating for the SNP at Westminster was 52 per cent. He inherited a Party which had scored 23 per cent in a Scottish election and 21 per cent in a UK one.
The fact that Sturgeon has achieved 50 per cent in an election and 60 per cent - yes that is correct 60 per cent - in this week's polling is more a measure of how extraodinary she is rather than how ordinary was Salmond's leadership.
Arguably though, Salmond screwed up when he "joked" about writing Labour's Budget. Much as they might bluster about it not mattering, the SNP would have been in a hugely better position if the Tories had not achieved an overall majority - a majority for which the SNP's buddy-hugging of Ed Miliband was in no small part responsible.
They over-egged the pudding.....
Clearly a mistake of hubris, but to be fair understandable. It must have been so exciting in SNP HQ to see canvas returns that indicated a possible clean sweep.
"Ed Miliband could be given unconditional support by the Scottish Nationalists to lead the next government, Alex Salmond has said.
In his latest intervention, the former Scottish first minister said that his party would do whatever it took to lock David Cameron out of Downing Street.
He claims that the SNP will wield huge power after the election, enabling it to keep out the Conservatives even if it has no electoral deal with Labour."
She's done Stellar work (see what did I there) on the modern day usury that is payday loans.
Stella is definitely a star of the future. I think she'll be a Labour leader for sure, and very plausible future PM. She comes across as a very decent and normal "real world" individual.
Anyhoo, while I'm here, can anybody point me in the direction of a decent betting establishment on a Brexit (from the EU)? The best I can see is about two-to-one on a Brexit but I'd prefer something nearer five-to-one
Additionally, can anybody point me in the direction of odds on a Grexit (from the Euro)? I understand the argument that emergency liquidity will be withdrawn at June end (following more perpetual Greek fucking around) and the collapse of Greek banks soon after. But reestablishment of the Drachma is not automatic even after that and I reckon there'll be some delay before Syriza becomes unstupid. So I reckon a bet on Greece still being in the Euro at year end is good value.
The proviso is of course that "in the Euro" is tightly defined: a lot of punters lost money in 2012 when the debt was restructured: technically it was a default, but officially it wasn't, and the bookies took the official view.
Thank you. I've just had a look and the official currency one is for end of 2017 (18 months away!): I was hoping for end of 2016. But thank you anyway
Weirdly, Paddy Power also offers a bet on the European Commission issuing an official statement about a Greek default: wouldn't it be the IMF (Lagarde) or ECB (Draghi) or the Eurozone committee (Dutch guy)? Why would EurComm (Juncker) issue an official statement about it?
No, you're thinking of Abominable Dr Phibes. For Lee, it would be sunlight, sunlight, stake thru heart, sunlight, two candlesticks in shape of a cross,....(christ that guy had a long career)....golden bullet...(yep, there's more)...stake thru heart...(deep breath)...two lightsabers. And he freed Pakistan as well. Which was nice.
BoxOfficeMojo insists otherwise, but I still hold that with several Draculas, one Bond, two Star Wars films and six Sarumans under his belt, he was the greatest film star ever. Samuel L Jackson (two Windus, several Furys) has a good counterclaim but goddammit, Samuel L Jackson never got impersonated by Coogan and Brydon, now did he?
Yeah but Sam L Jackson did this, which I think is one of the funniest things ever.
Britain has spoken – and chosen a vicious murdering bully as its national bird. The robin is brutish, ruthless, and ready to ruck. Could it be that, over gentler contenders, we have plumped for the bird that we deserve?
No, you're thinking of Abominable Dr Phibes. For Lee, it would be sunlight, sunlight, stake thru heart, sunlight, two candlesticks in shape of a cross,....(christ that guy had a long career)....golden bullet...(yep, there's more)...stake thru heart...(deep breath)...two lightsabers. And he freed Pakistan as well. Which was nice.
BoxOfficeMojo insists otherwise, but I still hold that with several Draculas, one Bond, two Star Wars films and six Sarumans under his belt, he was the greatest film star ever. Samuel L Jackson (two Windus, several Furys) has a good counterclaim but goddammit, Samuel L Jackson never got impersonated by Coogan and Brydon, now did he?
Or you've got the silent stars: Chaplin cofounded United Artists and was a global success. There's a metric of fame that uses the number of people worldwide who recognize your name. Somebody once opined that only three brits could be namechecked by over a billion people: Churchill, Diana, and Chaplin.
Anyhoo, lunch is over: gotta do that work-for-a-living thing....:-(
Looking back, that was probably the "game changer" we were all looking for.
That one intervention, and everything that then flowed from it, could well be the single biggest reason Cameron has a majority.
As, ahem, you would have read here was immediately being picked up on the doorsteps of Torbay (and I suspect possibly elsewhere!). If only you hadn't been too busy squeezing into your Headless Chicken suit!
Britain has spoken – and chosen a vicious murdering bully as its national bird. The robin is brutish, ruthless, and ready to ruck. Could it be that, over gentler contenders, we have plumped for the bird that we deserve?
The British are far more brutal and bloodthirsty than we like to believe. How else did we conquer so much of the world. The robin is an ideal national bird. Handsome yet very terratorial!
On topic:
Happy Birthday Liz Kendall! But does she have the endorsement of King David to come?
Actually, I just read on Wikipedia that Stella Creasy is related to Polly Toynbee.
Scratch what I said then. Burn her....
:-)
There are actually only five families on the Left of British politics.
Just like the Mob.
Now I think about it, John Prescott does remind me of Tony Soprano
Ed Balls sleeps with the fishes....
No surprise Prezza is so grumpy, what with having lost his license and all. It would be a wonder to hear Mrs Prezza castigating him for being such a dickhead.
The UK Independence Party faces criticism after attempting to block scrutiny of party donations, as part of a drive to halt Russian influence in Europe.
Nigel Farage and his MEPs voted today against measures calling for greater transparency of donations from outside the EU to political parties.
It came in a series of anti-Putin proposals proposed in Strasbourg including measures to counter Russian propaganda and stripping the country of its "strategic partner" status.
Ukip were joined by the European radical right in opposing the measures, including the Front National, which has received funding from Russia.
Warning to those who want to bet on grexit. If there is ever the decision by Greece to leave the eurozone it will probably be de-facto not de-jure, so the betting agencies will not recognize it.
For Greece to leave de-jure it probably requires the consent of the council of ministers in order for Greece to be relegated as an EU member state in derogation, according to the Lisbon Treaty.
So factor the legal fudging when making those bets.
Another day, another article urging Brits to self loath.
"Oo if only British birds were more like sophisticated European birds with their higher education and cafe culture. Why French pigeons give their young a glass of wine with their worms"
A hooligan bird that throws it's weight around? Ha ha ha.
We could always choose the Lesser Spotted Graunwhiner. It has a mating call that goes something like "o woe o woe, o woe is us"
You can always spot them with their distinctive brown beaks they would be yellow but they're alway up the backside of continental birds.
Britain has spoken – and chosen a vicious murdering bully as its national bird. The robin is brutish, ruthless, and ready to ruck. Could it be that, over gentler contenders, we have plumped for the bird that we deserve?
The British are far more brutal and bloodthirsty than we like to believe. How else did we conquer so much of the world. The robin is an ideal national bird. Handsome yet very terratorial!
On topic:
Happy Birthday Liz Kendall! But does she have the endorsement of King David to come?
The UK Independence Party faces criticism after attempting to block scrutiny of party donations, as part of a drive to halt Russian influence in Europe.
Nigel Farage and his MEPs voted today against measures calling for greater transparency of donations from outside the EU to political parties.
It came in a series of anti-Putin proposals proposed in Strasbourg including measures to counter Russian propaganda and stripping the country of its "strategic partner" status.
Ukip were joined by the European radical right in opposing the measures, including the Front National, which has received funding from Russia.
The only reason the Robins won was because they hung about outside polling stations threatening to beak people if they voted for other birds.
I do not make that accusation lightly. The evidence can be seen on countless youtube videos.
The Blackbirds, on the other hand, ran a decent, honest campaign. Unlike many other birds that stood for election, they're visible in communities right across Britain, throughout the year — not just when the clubs are open, or if there's a summer election on. With flagship policies like their insistence that hanging feeders should be used for smaller birds than them, a policy they didn't wait until their election to put in practice, their values of decency and fairness are visible for all to see.
I think I speak for a lot of blackbird voters when I say this wasn't the result I hoped for, but I have every confidence that they won't descend into an incestuous fight about leadership because of it. Now, with the red-chested wank— birds returned to national status on a mere 34% of the national vote, the need to reform the electoral system and the need for Blackbirds continuing to hop about while delivering their cheery song in gardens, allotments and parkland is more pressing than ever.
The primary school population in England has continued to rise sharply, with 94,000 extra pupils this year, reaching the highest levels since the 1970s.
The 2.1% increase in primary numbers is equivalent to six more pupils for every school.
"Minority ethnic pupils made up 71% of the increase," says the Department for Education's school census report.
The annual figures show there are now more super-sized primary schools.
It will mean more funding demands to create extra places and pressure on places for families looking for schools.
There are now 87 primary schools with more than 800 pupils, up from 77 in 2014 and 58 in 2013.
I may be speaking too soon but the ScotsNats in HoC are already boring me to death.
I also wonder how long they will put up with the towering egos of Salmond, Wishart and Robertson. Stewart Hosie is clearly the main 'minder'. Watching him sat on the back row where he can watch them all, is slightly scary.
I'm exceedingly proud of UKIP for speaking sense on Russia. It would be very easy for them to wrap themselves in the flag 'Fox News' style and Russia-bash even more than everyone else to get some positive press. Instead they've decided to speak truth to power and challenge the utter absurdity of our American-dictated posture toward Russia.
The UK Independence Party faces criticism after attempting to block scrutiny of party donations, as part of a drive to halt Russian influence in Europe.
Nigel Farage and his MEPs voted today against measures calling for greater transparency of donations from outside the EU to political parties.
It came in a series of anti-Putin proposals proposed in Strasbourg including measures to counter Russian propaganda and stripping the country of its "strategic partner" status.
Ukip were joined by the European radical right in opposing the measures, including the Front National, which has received funding from Russia.
TSE - being disingenuous much? The UKIP position is a prima facie principled one - they are against the EU, and so should be against the EU having any oversight of their funding, while accepting national laws pertaining to the same. You don't need to have anything to hide in order to take a principled position on either law or politics. As a lawyer, of course, you know this well.
Comments
25 Apr 2015 07:59
It is the so called ''Shy Tory '' vote that will be crucial in this election ....the ''shy Tories '' who are currently flirting with UKIP , but who will return to their Party on election day ; naturally , they are not going to admit that to the pollsters as it would defeat the whole purpose of a ''protest vote '' ...they want to hold Cameron's feet to the fire and make him sweat ; they want him to be grateful for their support , to listen to them in the future and not take them for granted
But there is another '' shy Tory '' in this election that could turn out to be of even more importance ...it is the Labour centrists and ''Blairites '' .Indeed , these are the folks who are very unhappy with the move to the Left and away from ''new Labour '' that Miliband has taken , but they are much more concerned that there is a distinct possibility of a weak Labour party being propped up, and in effect ,held to ransom by an odious national Party dedicated to the break up of the UK . THIS ,they will never tolerate !
Millions of Labour centrists are going to be forced to jump ship and support the Tories as the far lessor of two evils and come election day they will pragmatically chose Cameron over Miliband as the only safe and sensible choice ....naturally , they haven't quite made up their minds yet and as such they are telling the pollsters that they will be voting Labour as usual , but when they get into that voting booth they will quietly and decisively make their mark for the Tories .....THIS IS THE SHY TORY VOTER!
20% , or 1 in 5 voters claim not to have yet made up their minds and the Tories are likely to get virtually all of these
12 Apr 2015 13:35
The polls are not a prediction , just a daily snapshot showing , If possible ,a trend ; but when they are showing a tie over three weeks before an election they must be'' read between the lines ''....ergo, it's possible to be hypnotised and seduced by the polls instead of viewing these events through a wide angel lens , rather like a homicide detective who relies too much on narrow scientific evidence instead of an experienced , intuitive ''hunch '' about human nature
The electorate outside of Scotland will NEVER tolerate even the mere rumour , hint or sniff of a weak Labour Party being propped up and held to ransom by the Scots Natz; they will NEVER take that risk and will vote Tory as the only safe and sensible choice ; indeed , the polls are like a car engine idling in neutral while they wake up and make up their minds ....when they do, they will, metaphorically speaking , slam that car into gear to burn rubber directly to Tory H Q
==================================
I actually won £ 61, 000 on the confidence in these predictions ...this horny handed son of toil and latter day Fagin confounded the so called experts and beat the bookies !
SCHADENFREUDE !
http://bit.ly/1C0BNdF
And William Hill have a market on the first country to leave the Euro
http://bit.ly/1FUGer3
In the olden days, bookmakers would commission tissue prices from various sources and use the combined wisdom to work out what price they were prepared to go. Nowadays it's mostly betfair for horses and Asian markets for soccer, but the process still works for more niche markets like politics.
In practice, if you've been in "the game" for long enough, you end up getting an instinctive feel for value, rather than having to work through the entire field. But it's usually best to check yourself at that point!
Weirdly, Paddy Power also offers a bet on the European Commission issuing an official statement about a Greek default: wouldn't it be the IMF (Lagarde) or ECB (Draghi) or the Eurozone committee (Dutch guy)? Why would EurComm (Juncker) issue an official statement about it?
I'm an extremely shy Tory.
In fact, I'm so painfully shy, I found myself physically incapable of putting an 'X' in the Conservative box on my ballot paper.
That one intervention, and everything that then flowed from it, could well be the single biggest reason Cameron has a majority. Stella is definitely a star of the future. I think she'll be a Labour leader for sure, and very plausible future PM. She comes across as a very decent and normal "real world" individual.
Clearly a palpable error on my part.
Scratch what I said then. Burn her....
:-)
Britain has spoken – and chosen a vicious murdering bully as its national bird. The robin is brutish, ruthless, and ready to ruck. Could it be that, over gentler contenders, we have plumped for the bird that we deserve?
http://bit.ly/1QqQjY7
Anyhoo, lunch is over: gotta do that work-for-a-living thing....:-(
Just like the Mob.
On topic:
Happy Birthday Liz Kendall! But does she have the endorsement of King David to come?
"Someone contact Ranulph Fiennes, because Philip Hoare has ascended to the top of Peak Guardian unaided."
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/516375124027899904
The UK Independence Party faces criticism after attempting to block scrutiny of party donations, as part of a drive to halt Russian influence in Europe.
Nigel Farage and his MEPs voted today against measures calling for greater transparency of donations from outside the EU to political parties.
It came in a series of anti-Putin proposals proposed in Strasbourg including measures to counter Russian propaganda and stripping the country of its "strategic partner" status.
Ukip were joined by the European radical right in opposing the measures, including the Front National, which has received funding from Russia.
http://bit.ly/1QOFSsj
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2015/06/is-the-nhs-doomed/
If there is ever the decision by Greece to leave the eurozone it will probably be de-facto not de-jure, so the betting agencies will not recognize it.
For Greece to leave de-jure it probably requires the consent of the council of ministers in order for Greece to be relegated as an EU member state in derogation, according to the Lisbon Treaty.
So factor the legal fudging when making those bets.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband
Ukip is Europe's laziest party, researchers reveal
Nigel Farage’s party is by far the most absent from votes in the European parliament, according to data by VoteWatch Europe
http://bit.ly/1JHIbhT
New Thread
The 2.1% increase in primary numbers is equivalent to six more pupils for every school.
"Minority ethnic pupils made up 71% of the increase," says the Department for Education's school census report.
The annual figures show there are now more super-sized primary schools.
It will mean more funding demands to create extra places and pressure on places for families looking for schools.
There are now 87 primary schools with more than 800 pupils, up from 77 in 2014 and 58 in 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33094304
Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone except Labour, when almost uncontrolled immigration is allowed.
I also wonder how long they will put up with the towering egos of Salmond, Wishart and Robertson. Stewart Hosie is clearly the main 'minder'. Watching him sat on the back row where he can watch them all, is slightly scary.