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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the campaign
Looking at the above findings from Survation on behalf of British Future, if the EU referendum is a head to head between David Cameron and Nigel Farage, it is advantage to Cameron and the In side (assuming Cameron campaigns for the UK to remain in the EU.)
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Yes, the Out side need someone other than Farage to be fronting the campaign. Winning a referendum is about building a consensus on an issue from a variety of different political viewpoints. Farage can't hope to get 50% of the country behind him.
Let him talk to the kippers for sure, but the political leader of the campaign needs to be someone with respect from all sides in the way Darling was in the Scottish referendum.
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
(Drum roll)
. . . David Cameron!
(As if he would!)
There needs to be established a two-speed EU such that those not in the Euro leave those that are to get on with their Superstate, and sort Greece out themselves.
The crunch for me was when the Eurozone countries tried to propose the financial services tax last year, the vast majority of which would be paid in London rather than the EZ. If we can't stop future proposals like that then we are better off out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/fifa/11657442/Fifa-in-crisis-Morocco-won-2010-World-Cup-vote-not-South-Africa.html Is this really saying that they tallied up the votes cast then blatantly lied about the result of the ballot?
I suppose one option is to get someone from outside politics, but that approach didn't work well for Yes2AV.
The question is much more difficult and the arguments on both sides much more nuanced than AV or even Scottish indy debates, and as such most of them are waiting to see what the PM can come up with. Of course as mentioned below, if Cameron calls a fig leaf a fig leaf then he will lead the campaign, otherwise let's see who of the big hitters ends up on the Out side.
Most politicians have a good idea of what is achievable in negotiations because they have thought long and hard about the issues and know the people who will be doing the negotiating. Many of these will have already made up their minds and know which way they will vote regardless of what Cameron achieves.
The achievements are likely to be technical and difficult to grasp by the general public, so the vote will go by who you trust most out of Cameron, New Labour Leader, New LibDem Leader and Farage.
So far it looks like a one way bet.
The difficult part is timing.
1) Jumping to "out" is much easier to sell after negotiations than before, but that's cutting it pretty fine.
2) There's no benefit unless you actually get to be in charge. But if you jump now, you risk getting gazumped by someone more senior who makes the switch later.
You make an interesting point about ambition - if DC tried to dress up the fig leaf as an Armani suit and then loses the referendum, whoever leads the Out campaign would be a good bet for next Tory leader.
Interesting times ahead for all parties!
The only way Out wins is if the campaign is fronted by Cameron, with Boris and Osborne on either side of him.
The only way Cameron gets any meaningful concessions is if the EU believes that trio campaigning for No is a realistic possibility.
Over to you, Dave...
No matter who is the nominal leader, it is Farage who will be the face of the Out campaign. I cannot see him stepping into the background for someone else.
If the Eurocrats behave by not mentioning the final solution - political union, and Cameron can make the tinsel look like golden 'no ifs.and no buts', I'm sure IN will win.
If not, it could get interesting.
The youngsters are clearly for In though. It is important for the In campaign to get these voters engaged. It is them that are going to have to live with the consequences.
Have to agree with those that think Farage should represent the kippers in the big tent, but would do more harm than good, if he was leading the OUT campaign.
The question of who should be leader however, is an interesting one; apart from the basic skills required by all leaders, he/she would also need to have cross party support and appeal to others groups within the tent, including the wider business community. – Personally I’d look to the HoL first, rather than an MP. The campaign would be better served imho with a Lord Coe figurehead. - arise Lord Hannan perhaps?
Mr. Sandpit, if only it were so. Many fools in this country would welcome banker-bashing taxes, even if the money were thrown at profligate Club Med countries.
Scepticism fits more in Leaning than definite.
F1: want to wait for the double-score market to appear, as there's not much to whet my appetite so far.
My impression is that he adapts his views to his audience with a miasma of buffoonery to cover the switching - a kinder interpretation would be that he's simply been representing Londoners as they wish - and that he'd be perfectly willing to lead an Out campaign if he thought it would lead him to Number 10. And he probably really would change the potential outcome, whereas Lord X or MEP Y or businessman Z really would not.
His current predicament is to carve out a role in an unexpected majority situation.
1/2 on a safety car also sounds reasonable, but I'd check about whether this covers the 'virtual' SC before betting on it. Sky's interview with Charlie Whiting on Friday suggested they would use it to move a car out of the way where there is no cleaning up to do and no medical intervention needed - a good example might be Button's car where it stopped in FP3 yesterday.
Surely too blatant. Surely.
I know a few British Moroccans who are still furious they lost, maintaining they'd have been a far better host - no vuvuzelas I guess - so I look forward to their take on this.
Mr. Sandpit, that's actually one on my early potential bets list. I do lack confidence the Williams can match the Ferrari on race pace, though. And the Williams also has had an engine issue (for Massa).
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The only chances of this not happening are:
*) A referendum where the country votes out
*) The EU realising their problems.
Baking reform needs sorting out. So does the EU.
Money does matter. But it's not the only story in town. And for me, it is more about who governs us than anything else.
Mr. Antifrank, an interesting suggestion. I wonder if Hammond might want the job as well.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?
Worth mentioning that whilst there's obvious woe for the Conservatives (big split[s]) there's also the problem that Labour/SNP become identified solely with In, so that any more EU annoyances can be labelled leftist, and a future Conservative leader may be able to say "I wanted us out of this mess".
I will be voting IN come what may.
Why is this company still in business? Why in the world would anybody take any notice of them?
That's what's making me more inclined towards Out. The desire for a financial transaction tax hasn't gone away, the desire for ever closer union hasn't gone away, the madness of the eurozone hasn't gone away [quite the reverse, they want more integration]. I can't see how the direction of travel is compatible with the wish of the British electorate or the British national interest.
The 'out' campaign will need to remind people of the Euro-fanaticists.
But in the mean time she'd be the de-facto faction leader of the large part of the Conservative Party that's currently having to make do with David Davis. That would probably be enough to get her into the run-off to succeed Cameron, and she'd be well placed to win the membership vote. Even if somebody else followed Cameron they'd probably want to give her a bigger job than she'd have had otherwise, to get her side of the party back in the tent.
And that's the worst-case scenario, which assumes "out" lose the referendum. If they win she could go directly to Number 10.
But the problem is, what if she jumps, then Boris or some other big beast jumps on top of her?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-did-well-among-urban-liberals-but-there-are-more-suburbanites-and-smalltown-voters-10301966.html
What a difference from the confident and assured performance she gave to Andrew Neil after the election. But then that was all about platitudes and less about policy. One wonders if she's got a clear idea of what she wants to do in reality. At the moment it sounds like she wants to be vaguely more Blairite but doesn't know how to show it.
Also, I think she's been spooked by the various attacks on her from Cooper et al. I'm not sure she factored in the fact that this was going to be a tough fight.
Yes, I would like to see the UK voting to be part of the EU, and being a more constructive partner.
Most of the ones that I know that have left the country have gone to Aus or The States.. my associate company is involved in getting them the essential language qualifications required in those places.
You're aware of the eurozone? The desire for banking union within it? And then fiscal union? The desire by some for a Brussels-levied financial transaction tax which will affect the UK far more than any other nation? And the EU's fundamental desire for ever closer integration?
Which of the above points do you think are not the case?
Mr. Jonathan, we disagree entirely on that point. You cannot force nationhood by bureaucracy. A group of friendly nation-states has far better long term prospects than an unwanted, ideologically driven federation governed by a cabal of meddlesome eunuchs.
On another topic, Hammond is excellent on Marr. To the point, answers the question and with gravitas - the complete opposite of Kendall.
That said, I don't think Boris will be voting Out.
Bureaucracy proven bad.
:-(
The EU creates problems it does not solve, I objuct to its leaders being directly unaccountable to me at a ballot box ( sorry they are just not) and the quality majority voting just sidelines us depite being one of the biggest contributors. I cannot think of anything the EU and its unelected undemocratic corrupt politicians have done for us and Europe in particular. They have done Lots for themselves on the other hand.
They can also dictate who comes into our country after they under schengen dropped their collective guard. At the time when a humanitarian crisis erupts on the borders of the EU and in Greece in particular now is the time to guard the borders. Give protection to those that need it and weed out the rest, there are plenty of troublemakers there. Meanwhile France accuses us of creating the Calais crisis in their country???
I am not a UKipper but in my personal view we are better off out and away
In that way the EU referendum here in the UK might be good for Europe: it might pressurise the bureaucrats to try to invoke some much-needed reforms.
And neither will the EU stay as it is, at least without disintegrating. And it's all due to the Euro.
Casting my eye over last nights thread I came across this post:
" We are just seeing the Scottish Nazi Party in their real colours. I see that the cultural purging of Scotland is also getting up a head of steam, with cricket being dropped by one of Scotland's most distinguished schools, Morrison's Academy. "
A little Englander speaks, I can live with the first insult, but blaming the SNP for purging cricket from the Morrison's curriculum is going to far. Anyway for anyone interested in why this distinguished public school is dropping cricket here's the background:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11655837/Stumped-teachers-drop-cricket-due-to-complex-rules-and-wet-weather.html
Many of those students in Oxford will be from European area countries..they are not learning English to speak it at home... they cant wait to leave the place..
Even the EU has adopted English as an official language
Really?