Does anybody know if the Aberdeen by-election is being counted tonight?
"STV will be providing a Scotland Tonight Donside by-election special on Thursday night, starting at 11.35pm, which will feature the latest on the count from the constituency."
It's unfortunate for Burnham that his name keeps on coming up in association with shenanigans at the CQC.
"A vicious feud has broken out over a Labour-appointed peer who unexpectedly quit as head of an NHS watchdog at the centre of controversy over shocking hospital death rates.
But her allies say she is the victim of a dirty-tricks campaign after a series of clashes with Health Secretary Andy Burnham....
She is thought to have angered Mr Burnham by criticising the hospital ratings system, and he is also understood to have been livid over the way she allowed the report to be turned into an attack on the Government.
But her friends say that shortly after the leak, she had a series of angry meetings with Mr Burnham over the system for rating hospital care.....
Mr Burnham is said to have repeatedly rejected her calls to improve the much-criticised system, which gave Basildon a 'good' rating just weeks before an unannounced inspection uncovered filthy wards and a high death rate."
I was simply responding to taffys claim that the Tories were involved in a masterplan to expose the politicians controlling the people at the time. Well if they are it's a very strange masterplan given that it was a Tory politician "controlling them at the time"
You read this stuff all the time, its the equivalent of people claiming that 9/11 was a response to Iraq. Always check your dates, make sure they are in the right order.
One to keep quiet on, methinks, tim.
Plausible deniability appears to be the nature of this game.
From what I cant see, the botched CQC inspection into this trust actually took place in 2010, not sure if it was pre or post election. The trust got a glowing report.
The subsequent report on the fact it was botched, and the cover-up of that report, were in 2011 after the coalition had taken power, I grant you.
If the coalition aren't trying to stick this on labour, then I fail to see what the sudden zealousness for transparency is coming from.
If you can bring yourself to hit conhome, read the David Morris MP piece. Talk about j'accuse.
They coalition's deliberate strategy is to get some senior apparatchiks out into the open. Who knows what they might be prepared to say about the politicians who controlled them at the time these events happened, just to save their own miserable skins.
You do realise that "these events" ie the report and the alleged cover up happened when the coalition were in power don't you. So I'm not really sure who you are alleging the politicians who "controlled them at the time" were.
The tories are trying to establish a narrative of serial failure, callousness and cover-up on Labour's watch.
You might like to look at the timings, I don't think you've quite understood.
Labour appointees burning the evidence after regime change, tim.
We see it happen whenever a totalitarian government falls.
Does that explain Detective Jeremy Heywood and Detective Cameron's sitting on the CCTV tapes during the Mitchell affair then?
If you can bring yourself to hit conhome, read the David Morris MP piece. Talk about j'accuse.
"Morecambe Bay is the latest in a long list of hospital scandals that took place on Labour's watch. Like Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, Stoke Mandeville, Basildon and Stafford before it, the Morecambe Bay tragedy has laid bare a cover-up culture and tick-box inspection regime in Labour's NHS, and my constituents deserve an account of this.
As Jeremy Hunt said in his statement yesterday, the hospital regulator should be an organisation that stands up for patients without fear or favour. Yet Labour Ministers - obsessed with avoiding critical headlines and covering their backs - tasked the regulator with ticking boxes and closing down problems. The former Chair of the CQC, Baroness Young, has made very serious allegations that ministers "leaned on" her to "tone down" criticism of NHS organisations. She claims that "there was huge government pressure, because the government hated the idea that a regulator would criticise it". Damningly, she revealed that this political pressure peaked under current Shadow Health Secretary's Andy Burnham's tenure as Secretary of State. This is the man who turned down 81 separate requests for a public inquiry into the Mid Staffs scandal."
Let's face it: if the Woolwich beheading hadn't taken place, the Sheffield beheading would have been all over the news for days on end. The only reason it wasn't was because the powers that be decided the little people might not have been able to take sensibly digest two beheadings in the space of a few weeks.
You'll struggle to build your politicians "controlling them at the time" narrative, I'd try another angle.
I don;t need to build such a narrative. I'll leave that to a previous head of the CQC, Baronness Young. She's had some very interesting things to say about the previous government's attitude to CQC reports that were less than glowing - and what should be done with them.
The 2010 report was conducted in June 2010, after the election. So all the reports and the alleged cover up happened under the coalition.
You'll struggle to build your politicians "controlling them at the time" narrative, I'd try another angle. This grassy knoll is not in Dallas, it's not even in Texas, it's a mini roundabout on the Swindon by pass.
That's desperate stuff, Tim. The evil Tories come in, and with a month have altered the CQC so much that it botches an investigation. In a month.
There are questions to be answered about what happened in the meeting in Mach 2012, but compare that to the deaths - which occurred well into the previous administration - and the botched investigation, which happened in an organisation set up by Labour, and presumably (unless you know otherwise) was still operating under those rules and especially that culture.
Like Stafford, the coalition is being left to discover what really happened at Furness.
The CQC people appear to be serial public servants who have moved along the gravy train from taxpayer trough to trough.
Politics aside - until there is moral and financial hazard the public sector will continue to act like a bunch of bankers.
Yes - and until some are brought to book for 'misconduct in a Public Office', it will carry on.
"John Woodcock, Labour MP for Barrow and Furness, wrote "The evidence of wrongdoing outlined in the Grant Thornton independent report released yesterday is deeply shocking. There is the possibility of criminal action against the perpetrators of a cover-up"
and you can see here that the CQC were happy to sign off on the hospital
"In April 2010, all NHS trusts were required to register with the CQC under a new system of regulation. Despite all the concerns CQC had about Morecambe Bay, on 16th April 2010, Sue McMillan, wrote to Miranda Carter (the assessment officer at Monitor) as follows:
I therefore confirm that the trust is registered without compliance conditions, we are not investigating University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Trust and no investigation by the CQC is planned."
Let's face it: if the Woolwich beheading hadn't taken place, the Sheffield beheading would have been all over the news for days on end. The only reason it wasn't was because the powers that be decided the little people might not have been able to take sensibly digest two beheadings in the space of a few weeks.
I wonder whether it would have been mentioned on here once or twice if it were carried out by someone who "liked" a BNP or EDL link on facebook?
Let's face it: if the Woolwich beheading hadn't taken place, the Sheffield beheading would have been all over the news for days on end. The only reason it wasn't was because the powers that be decided the little people might not have been able to take sensibly digest two beheadings in the space of a few weeks.
This looks like it was a brutal domestic murder, the victims partner cut his nipple out in the street and tried to stab himself to death according to the reports in the local press. That you have picked up on the fact that the victims head was allegedly severed and sought to link it to Woolwich because the killer is Muslim is more an insight into the workings of your mind than the workings of the press "hushing up" a "beheading "
Let's face it: if the Woolwich beheading hadn't taken place, the Sheffield beheading would have been all over the news for days on end. The only reason it wasn't was because the powers that be decided the little people might not have been able to take sensibly digest two beheadings in the space of a few weeks.
I wonder whether it would have been mentioned on here once or twice if it were carried out by someone who "liked" a BNP or EDL link on facebook?
You seriously think this was some sort of political act that was "hushed up"?
Given the grisly nature of beheading whoever did it - how often does it actually happen in say a 10 yrs period?
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
Miss Plato, one other example that springs to mind is that headless torso being found (in a river, I think). That was down to some black magic insanity, if memory serves, and happened several years ago.
Miss Plato, one other example that springs to mind is that headless torso being found (in a river, I think). That was down to some black magic insanity, if memory serves, and happened several years ago.
Oh yes - a young boy IIRC, didn't they cut off his hands as well to make him hard to identify - that was really horrible.
"Over time Labour ministers developed a standard prescription for NHS failure. First, dither. Check tick-box compliance and allow defensive managers to blame bureaucratic errors in reporting of deaths. We saw this to devastating effect at Mid Staffordshire, where unnecessary deaths went unchecked for many months because they were put down to 'coding discrepancies' . Second, denial. Lean on regulators to tone down frank assessments of NHS failure, particularly around election time. Third, dismissal. When all else fails promise that this was an isolated incident, and as a result fail to learn lessons or spot similar problems elsewhere."
Given the grisly nature of beheading whoever did it - how often does it actually happen in say a 10 yrs period?
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
The main letter in The Times today is interesting. It's from a Professor RA Wood, a former consultant physician from Perthshire, who states that whiplash doesn't exist, that no word exists to describe it in other European countries, and that therefore 100% of whiplash claims are bogus. No doubt anyone who makes a lot of money out of whiplash claims will be frothing at the mouth in the coming days in response to his assertion.
Aye. Religious lunacy does seem to be the common factor.
On a happier note, it seems polytheism is making a comeback in Greece: www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22972610
It'd much more entertaining if the Greeks had a resurgence of ancient god followers - imagine how much more colourful it'd be to have say Athene, Zeus, Poseidon and say a smattering of other characters vying for our attention instead?!
Given the grisly nature of beheading whoever did it - how often does it actually happen in say a 10 yrs period?
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
Miss Plato, from what I've read (not much, admittedly) Dionysus appears to be a cross between Freddie Mercury and Freddie Krueger. Not sure I'd want his followers anywhere near me.
On the other hand, the Greek gods are much more fun and interesting than the God of Classical Theism. The modern day believers do seem to be adopting a slightly updated, more laid back, less bloody approach.
Did you have to? Some of JackW's best friends from his youth are on that list. Being a Jacobite used to be so much more dangerous.
This one caught my eye as a good way to go.
2012: Uroko Onoja, a Nigerian polygamist businessman, died after being forced by five of his six wives to have sex with each of them. Onoja was caught having sex with his youngest wife by the remaining five, who were jealous of him paying her more attention. The remaining wives demanded that he also have sex with each of them, threatening him with knives and sticks. He had intercourse with four of them in succession, but stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth.
Did you have to? Some of JackW's best friends from his youth are on that list. Being a Jacobite used to be so much more dangerous.
This one caught my eye as a good way to go.
2012: Uroko Onoja, a Nigerian polygamist businessman, died after being forced by five of his six wives to have sex with each of them. Onoja was caught having sex with his youngest wife by the remaining five, who were jealous of him paying her more attention. The remaining wives demanded that he also have sex with each of them, threatening him with knives and sticks. He had intercourse with four of them in succession, but stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth.
He stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth? That's a rare talent.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension. Apart from the military, the only one I can think of is the National Health Service. Lest you think this is a sick joke, consider the case of Cynthia Bower..."
Did you have to? Some of JackW's best friends from his youth are on that list. Being a Jacobite used to be so much more dangerous.
This one caught my eye as a good way to go.
2012: Uroko Onoja, a Nigerian polygamist businessman, died after being forced by five of his six wives to have sex with each of them. Onoja was caught having sex with his youngest wife by the remaining five, who were jealous of him paying her more attention. The remaining wives demanded that he also have sex with each of them, threatening him with knives and sticks. He had intercourse with four of them in succession, but stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension. Apart from the military, the only one I can think of is the National Health Service. Lest you think this is a sick joke, consider the case of Cynthia Bower..."
Did you have to? Some of JackW's best friends from his youth are on that list. Being a Jacobite used to be so much more dangerous.
This one caught my eye as a good way to go.
2012: Uroko Onoja, a Nigerian polygamist businessman, died after being forced by five of his six wives to have sex with each of them. Onoja was caught having sex with his youngest wife by the remaining five, who were jealous of him paying her more attention. The remaining wives demanded that he also have sex with each of them, threatening him with knives and sticks. He had intercourse with four of them in succession, but stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth.
He stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth? That's a rare talent.
The main letter in The Times today is interesting. It's from a Professor RA Wood, a former consultant physician from Perthshire, who states that whiplash doesn't exist, that no word exists to describe it in other European countries, and that therefore 100% of whiplash claims are bogus. No doubt anyone who makes a lot of money out of whiplash claims will be frothing at the mouth in the coming days in response to his assertion.
Professor Wood, if that's what he says, is spectacularly ill-informed. Doing two minutes' research on my languages I find:
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension. Apart from the military, the only one I can think of is the National Health Service. Lest you think this is a sick joke, consider the case of Cynthia Bower..."
'Question Time from London. On the panel are Ed Davey MP, secretary of state for energy and climate change; Dame Tessa Jowell MP, Labour's former minister for the Olympics; Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London; comedian Russell Brand; and Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips.'
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension."
The tobacco and alcohol industries spring to mind; as does the defence sector.
A very blunt scalpel.
Not the tobacco nor alcohol industry - a dead customer buys no cigarettes.
Selling products that people have the choice to purchase or not is totally different to neglecting seriously ill patients that are put in your care having paid your wages via tax all their working lives
how can we stop these people doing this type of thing?
Replace the political class.
"The 18-stone brute was jailed for life in a secure mental health unit in May 2012 and ordered to serve at least six years before being considered for release."
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Given the grisly nature of beheading whoever did it - how often does it actually happen in say a 10 yrs period?
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
' Before the somewhat ill-starred budget of 2012, Osborne left his desk at the Treasury with a week to go in order that he might join the Cameron tour of Washington and have dinner at the White House. Osborne should have been burning the midnight oil in London ensuring that there was no caravan, granny or pasty shaped row in his most important statement of the year. The lure of Washington glitz was irresistible.
As a Tory MP texted me this morning: "All that politics tourism to Washington DC before the omnishambles budget, and Obama still doesn't know who George is. Hilarious!" '
Why this is so humiliating for Osborne is that everyone knows, whether they admit it or not, that Osborne's only in government because he's Cameron political spaniel.
Given the grisly nature of beheading whoever did it - how often does it actually happen in say a 10 yrs period?
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension."
The tobacco and alcohol industries spring to mind; as does the defence sector.
A very blunt scalpel.
Not the tobacco nor alcohol industry - a dead customer buys no cigarettes.
Selling products that people have the choice to purchase or not is totally different to neglecting seriously ill patients that are put in your care having paid your wages via tax all their working lives
It certainly is. But there are any number of industries which make products that kill people and whose senior executives get big pay rises, promotions and generous pensions. I am surprised the Telegraph writer could not think of any.
Unfortunately in this country there is a senior and self-perpetuating managerial elite ion both the public and private sectors who seem to get handsomely rewarded however badly they do their jobs: the NHS, the banking industry, the BBC, the private utilities, council chief executives and so on. It seems that once you get to a certain level inside a big operation, you are pretty much untouchable. That creates unbelievable complacency, which in turn creates problems - see Stafford, see financial meldown, see that whic cannot be mentioned and so on. It's been a big problem in this country for many decades and has actively harmed us by helping to destroy many industries. In Europe, the Commission is a very similar proposition.
SO - Not entirely true, Fred Goodwin was ousted as were the bosses of HBOS, B and B and NR and Bob Diamond after the lending scandal, as was David Nicholson and George Entwistle. There is the issue of compensation, but even Goodwin was forced to agree a pension cut
OGH - A declaration from Aberdeen Donside is expected tonight (or the early hours of Friday to be precise) uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-22975287
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension."
The tobacco and alcohol industries spring to mind; as does the defence sector.
A very blunt scalpel.
Not the tobacco nor alcohol industry - a dead customer buys no cigarettes.
Selling products that people have the choice to purchase or not is totally different to neglecting seriously ill patients that are put in your care having paid your wages via tax all their working lives
It certainly is. But there are any number of industries which make products that kill people and whose senior executives get big pay rises, promotions and generous pensions. I am surprised the Telegraph writer could not think of any.
Unfortunately in this country there is a senior and self-perpetuating managerial elite ion both the public and private sectors who seem to get handsomely rewarded however badly they do their jobs: the NHS, the banking industry, the BBC, the private utilities, council chief executives and so on. It seems that once you get to a certain level inside a big operation, you are pretty much untouchable. That creates unbelievable complacency, which in turn creates problems - see Stafford, see financial meldown, see that whic cannot be mentioned and so on. It's been a big problem in this country for many decades and has actively harmed us by helping to destroy many industries. In Europe, the Commission is a very similar proposition.
Yes. Public sector jobs should be the first to have the pay ratio between top and bottom earners imposed. There should be nobody in the NHS managerial elite earning more than twice the salary of a nurse or any more than the average doctor for instance perhaps?
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
GloucesterOldSpot replies:
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
Amazing to think that the two politicians who came under the most flak during the early years of the coalition - Nick Clegg and George Osborne - are now enjoying extraordinary comebacks. I feel sorry for Ed Balls in all of this. If his leader hadn't insisted on that ham-fisted conversion to the Osborne economic model then those two wouldn't appear to have been so comprehensibly vindicated. Where does Labour go from here? Global warming is looking a bit dodgy these days, so it's not as if Miliband can slug it out with the Greens.
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
GloucesterOldSpot replies:
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
I think it's been pretty well established that just about anyone can do better than Osborne.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension."
The tobacco and alcohol industries spring to mind; as does the defence sector.
A very blunt scalpel.
Not the tobacco nor alcohol industry - a dead customer buys no cigarettes.
Selling products that people have the choice to purchase or not is totally different to neglecting seriously ill patients that are put in your care having paid your wages via tax all their working lives
It certainly is. But there are any number of industries which make products that kill people and whose senior executives get big pay rises, promotions and generous pensions. I am surprised the Telegraph writer could not think of any.
Unfortunately in this country there is a senior and self-perpetuating managerial elite ion both the public and private sectors who seem to get handsomely rewarded however badly they do their jobs: the NHS, the banking industry, the BBC, the private utilities, council chief executives and so on. It seems that once you get to a certain level inside a big operation, you are pretty much untouchable. That creates unbelievable complacency, which in turn creates problems - see Stafford, see financial meldown, see that whic cannot be mentioned and so on. It's been a big problem in this country for many decades and has actively harmed us by helping to destroy many industries. In Europe, the Commission is a very similar proposition.
Yes. Public sector jobs should be the first to have the pay ratio between top and bottom earners imposed. There should be nobody in the NHS managerial elite earning more than twice the salary of a nurse or any more than the average doctor for instance perhaps?
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low 2. A record trade surplus 3. A current account only marginally below its all time record 4. A balanced budget (just) 5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
GloucesterOldSpot replies:
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
I think it's been pretty well established that just about anyone can do better than Osborne.
Don't shoot the messenger, Mr. Brooke.
I was just passing on GloucesterOldSpot's response to the Lincolnshire Misanthrope.
But then I see you are following my precedent by passiing on the comments of GOS's cousin, MickP0rk.
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low 2. A record trade surplus 3. A current account only marginally below its all time record 4. A balanced budget (just) 5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.
And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.
Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.
And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.
In January of this year I posted many times on the much respected website, PB, of the desperate need to sign a striker to bolster our squad and try and secure Champions League.
You chose to ignore my advice, nay pleas. We missed out by a whisker after unexpected business downturn in the Fulham, Norwich, QPR areas.
Despite G. Bale Esq. providing superb club service, now is the time to show the aforementioned staff member and the business as a whole that you are trying to build a team and not waiting to buy a few token recruits as a pay off should you elect to sell our core asset.
It is still early but the longer the silence on new recruits to the business, the more restless staff and suppliers will become and the suspicion that once again the heart of our business will be ripped out just as our new trading year commences may occur - witness Messrs, Carrick and Berbatov to our competitors in previous trading periods.
Yes we are a business and realising assets when they are fully valued is wise-business but it cuts away the long-term growth of the firm at the expense of short term profit if we continue to do that.
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low 2. A record trade surplus 3. A current account only marginally below its all time record 4. A balanced budget (just) 5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.
And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.
Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.
And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.
I'm pretty sure they'd all be in the same places they are now... physically, at least :-)
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
GloucesterOldSpot replies:
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
I think it's been pretty well established that just about anyone can do better than Osborne.
Don't shoot the messenger, Mr. Brooke.
I was just passing on GloucesterOldSpot's response to the Lincolnshire Misanthrope.
But then I see you are following my precedent by passiing on the comments of GOS's cousin, MickP0rk.
Oh really Mr Pole just think of how much better the UK would be doing if we replaced Osborne with Wolfgang Schaeuble or one of Plato's cats for that matter. Mark up another fail for Oxford, why do we keep that place going ?
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low 2. A record trade surplus 3. A current account only marginally below its all time record 4. A balanced budget (just) 5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.
And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.
Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.
And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.
Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
Not sure giving 10% of GDP to someone on a £60k salary band makes a lot of sense.
Don't follow sorry?
The NHS takes up 10% of GDP, average doctors salary, or two nurses is £60-£70k.
Fine if you think running the NHS is a job at that sort of level but I don't think it would be wise.
I'm not against pay multiples but you need to attract able people with budgets of that size and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to buy an average priced house in London if they are at the top of the NHS management structure.Or the police,army etc.
Ok I get it.
I made up the multiples on the quick so they are not well thought out... Maybe no more than double a top doctors salary.
People are entrusted with patients lives for £60-70k though
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low 2. A record trade surplus 3. A current account only marginally below its all time record 4. A balanced budget (just) 5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.
And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.
Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.
And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.
Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
Two further things:
1. I concede on GDP per capita but just look at what Gordon did to the UK's performance. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita Now look at the improvement since Jeffrey took over and on a rate of improvement basis it more than competes with Angela's wizardry. Still we are only at just less than three quarters of Germany's level.
Time for you to revive the derivatives market, Robert, and people will start thinking the battle with Germany is all over again.
2. If Deutsche Bank bought the entire Spanish banking sector, Germany might start to flatline on that graph.
I was using 'contingent liabilities' in a more general sense of Germany underwriting the Eurozone, though the specific measure you referred me to does appear to be a worked metric along these lines.
The government should have told the truth instead of the whole faux austerity pretence.
The "we're all in it together" meme should have been fleshed out with the government explaining that personal consumption had been allowed to reach unsustainable levels and that for the next generation living standards would for most people either be stagnant or in decline. Blame could have placed on Labour for this and explanations made about an unbalanced economy, insufficient infrastructure investment, the effects of globalisation and the shift in economic power to Asia.
Issues such as the decline in economic and social mobility, sustainable living and the importance of quality of life over mere living standards could have been emphasised.
Instead the unsustainable levels of consumption have been treated as the minimum level allowable and government borrowing used to maintain them.
With the result that most people think we've undergone austerity and that it will soon be time to increase spending again. when in reality we haven't and spending has continued to increase.
Not only is the economy in a worse state to accept the inevitable changes but the British people are in a worse state psychologically to accept them as well.
Now at some point economic reality will be imposed on Britain and we will suffer far more than we needed because our political 'leaders' chose to preference their own narrow tactical political needs over the long term good of the country.
Instead we had George Osborne basing economic strategy upon an increase in household borrowing.
I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.
No wonder BenM has taken a day off.
All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent month on a 3 months month on 3 months year earlier on a year previous on previous earlier month 3 months
Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
GloucesterOldSpot replies:
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
I think it's been pretty well established that just about anyone can do better than Osborne.
Don't shoot the messenger, Mr. Brooke.
I was just passing on GloucesterOldSpot's response to the Lincolnshire Misanthrope.
But then I see you are following my precedent by passiing on the comments of GOS's cousin, MickP0rk.
Oh really Mr Pole just think of how much better the UK would be doing if we replaced Osborne with Wolfgang Schaeuble or one of Plato's cats for that matter. Mark up another fail for Oxford, why do we keep that place going ?
Mr. Brooke, I come in peace and offer a sacrifice.
If we merged Oxfordshire and Warwickshire and made Warwick University a college of OU, then wouldn't everyone but Prof. Davey be happy?
Comments
http://news.stv.tv/north/230063-voters-going-to-the-polls-in-aberdeen-donside-msp-by-election/
"A vicious feud has broken out over a Labour-appointed peer who unexpectedly quit as head of an NHS watchdog at the centre of controversy over shocking hospital death rates.
But her allies say she is the victim of a dirty-tricks campaign after a series of clashes with Health Secretary Andy Burnham....
She is thought to have angered Mr Burnham by criticising the hospital ratings system, and he is also understood to have been livid over the way she allowed the report to be turned into an attack on the Government.
But her friends say that shortly after the leak, she had a series of angry meetings with Mr Burnham over the system for rating hospital care.....
Mr Burnham is said to have repeatedly rejected her calls to improve the much-criticised system, which gave Basildon a 'good' rating just weeks before an unannounced inspection uncovered filthy wards and a high death rate."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233532/NHS-feud-hothead-Labour-baroness-accused-sending-colleagues-abusive-emails.html
Plausible deniability appears to be the nature of this game.
Check your alibis.
Is Ladbrokes too big to fail?
From what I cant see, the botched CQC inspection into this trust actually took place in 2010, not sure if it was pre or post election. The trust got a glowing report.
The subsequent report on the fact it was botched, and the cover-up of that report, were in 2011 after the coalition had taken power, I grant you.
If the coalition aren't trying to stick this on labour, then I fail to see what the sudden zealousness for transparency is coming from.
If you can bring yourself to hit conhome, read the David Morris MP piece. Talk about j'accuse.
That was a cunning stunt.
"Morecambe Bay is the latest in a long list of hospital scandals that took place on Labour's watch. Like Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, Stoke Mandeville, Basildon and Stafford before it, the Morecambe Bay tragedy has laid bare a cover-up culture and tick-box inspection regime in Labour's NHS, and my constituents deserve an account of this.
As Jeremy Hunt said in his statement yesterday, the hospital regulator should be an organisation that stands up for patients without fear or favour. Yet Labour Ministers - obsessed with avoiding critical headlines and covering their backs - tasked the regulator with ticking boxes and closing down problems. The former Chair of the CQC, Baroness Young, has made very serious allegations that ministers "leaned on" her to "tone down" criticism of NHS organisations. She claims that "there was huge government pressure, because the government hated the idea that a regulator would criticise it". Damningly, she revealed that this political pressure peaked under current Shadow Health Secretary's Andy Burnham's tenure as Secretary of State. This is the man who turned down 81 separate requests for a public inquiry into the Mid Staffs scandal."
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/06/from-mpdavidmorris.html
Politics aside - until there is moral and financial hazard the public sector will continue to act like a bunch of bankers.
I don;t need to build such a narrative. I'll leave that to a previous head of the CQC, Baronness Young.
She's had some very interesting things to say about the previous government's attitude to CQC reports that were less than glowing - and what should be done with them.
There are questions to be answered about what happened in the meeting in Mach 2012, but compare that to the deaths - which occurred well into the previous administration - and the botched investigation, which happened in an organisation set up by Labour, and presumably (unless you know otherwise) was still operating under those rules and especially that culture.
Like Stafford, the coalition is being left to discover what really happened at Furness.
The timeline is on Channel 4's website:
http://www.channel4.com/news/nhs-cqc-cover-up-hospital-morecambe-bay-names-revealed
It is clear that the NHS is safe under Labour. Sadly patients are not.
No it all happened under the coalition.....and labour has no case to answer....LOL
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 1m
BBC exclusive: local councils face 10% cut in central government funding under 2015/16 coalition spending plans http://bbc.in/19l3DEu
"John Woodcock, Labour MP for Barrow and Furness, wrote "The evidence of wrongdoing outlined in the Grant Thornton independent report released yesterday is deeply shocking. There is the possibility of criminal action against the perpetrators of a cover-up"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jun/20/nhs-watchdog-name-baby-deaths
I guess the 'watch out' is that no one want to repeat the Balls-up over Sharon Shoesmith.....
The history between CQC and Morecambe Bay hospital is much more than just one inspection in June 2010,
eg p6 of this report describes some of the history http://www.cqc.org.uk/sites/default/files/media/reports/20120613._rtx_-_university_hospitals_of_morecambe_bay_nhs_foundation_trust_investigation_report.final_for_publication.pdf
and you can see here that the CQC were happy to sign off on the hospital
"In April 2010, all NHS trusts were required to register with the CQC under a new system of regulation. Despite all the concerns CQC had about Morecambe Bay, on 16th April 2010, Sue McMillan, wrote to Miranda Carter (the assessment officer at Monitor) as follows:
I therefore confirm that the trust is registered without compliance conditions, we are not investigating University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Trust and no investigation by the CQC is planned."
http://www.morecambebayinquiry.co.uk/index.php/fegulatory-failures/evidence-of-cqc-involvement-in-suppressing-serious-concerns-at-morecambe-bay
The core message, is that as with the FSA, Labour are useless at setting up functioning regulators who will protect the public.
http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/111851.html
I confess to not really noticing stories about them here in the UK - but I assume there's been a few that were the result of a murderous frenzy rather than related to theological.
I blame the last Labour government.
On a happier note, it seems polytheism is making a comeback in Greece:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22972610
http://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/06/20/comment-andy-burnham-s-responsibility-for-secrecy
"Over time Labour ministers developed a standard prescription for NHS failure. First, dither. Check tick-box compliance and allow defensive managers to blame bureaucratic errors in reporting of deaths. We saw this to devastating effect at Mid Staffordshire, where unnecessary deaths went unchecked for many months because they were put down to 'coding discrepancies' . Second, denial. Lean on regulators to tone down frank assessments of NHS failure, particularly around election time. Third, dismissal. When all else fails promise that this was an isolated incident, and as a result fail to learn lessons or spot similar problems elsewhere."
Me too - more carbon emissions would have seen global warming accelerate and blue skies for all.
Not a comprehensive list, and includes a couple of recent self-administered ones.
Time to revive an old tradition?
On the other hand, the Greek gods are much more fun and interesting than the God of Classical Theism. The modern day believers do seem to be adopting a slightly updated, more laid back, less bloody approach.
Did you have to? Some of JackW's best friends from his youth are on that list. Being a Jacobite used to be so much more dangerous.
2012: Uroko Onoja, a Nigerian polygamist businessman, died after being forced by five of his six wives to have sex with each of them. Onoja was caught having sex with his youngest wife by the remaining five, who were jealous of him paying her more attention. The remaining wives demanded that he also have sex with each of them, threatening him with knives and sticks. He had intercourse with four of them in succession, but stopped breathing before having sex with the fifth.
"I'm trying to think of professions where killing people wins you promotion, a higher salary and a bigger pension. Apart from the military, the only one I can think of is the National Health Service. Lest you think this is a sick joke, consider the case of Cynthia Bower..."
It carries on in this vein in a grimly sarcastic tone for another 500 words. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100222843/if-the-nhs-is-the-envy-of-the-world-the-world-is-bonkers/
"Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3." And make the sun shine more.
"Stick to the nurses Danny - don't go near the regulators..."
The tobacco and alcohol industries spring to mind; as does the defence sector.
A very blunt scalpel.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schleudertrauma (German)
http://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piskesmældsskade (Danish)
There are reportedly 1000-2000 cases a year in Denmark alone.
The poor love.
Perhaps Ed Miliband should ask about his problems at the next PMQs...
http://www.lbc.co.uk/listen-long-term-jobless-man-turned-down-job-as-he-didnt-want-to-wear-a-hat-73882
http://www.lbc.co.uk/listen-jobless-man-who-refuses-to-get-up-at-8am-64710
How did I miss Paul from Clerkenwell's fantastic musings on the wrongs of lworking ife?
It's still a fantastically entertaining listen.
Priceless fun.
'Second, denial. Lean on regulators to tone down frank assessments of NHS failure, particularly around election time. Third, dismissal.'
Another week,another Labour NHS scandal,quite good at cover-ups..
"The 18-stone brute was jailed for life in a secure mental health unit in May 2012 and ordered to serve at least six years before being considered for release."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/319581/Eye-gouging-brute-gets-life
"Forensic psychologist John Parker said: “He is a dangerous man...and that is clear from his history of previous convictions.”"
Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.
And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2078109/Mohamed-Boudjenane-sentence-beheading-neighbour-cut-years.html
' Before the somewhat ill-starred budget of 2012, Osborne left his desk at the Treasury with a week to go in order that he might join the Cameron tour of Washington and have dinner at the White House. Osborne should have been burning the midnight oil in London ensuring that there was no caravan, granny or pasty shaped row in his most important statement of the year. The lure of Washington glitz was irresistible.
As a Tory MP texted me this morning: "All that politics tourism to Washington DC before the omnishambles budget, and Obama still doesn't know who George is. Hilarious!" '
Why this is so humiliating for Osborne is that everyone knows, whether they admit it or not, that Osborne's only in government because he's Cameron political spaniel.
He fled to Alvaston? I mean, of all the places...
Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.
Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.
Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.
So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.
You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
Unfortunately in this country there is a senior and self-perpetuating managerial elite ion both the public and private sectors who seem to get handsomely rewarded however badly they do their jobs: the NHS, the banking industry, the BBC, the private utilities, council chief executives and so on. It seems that once you get to a certain level inside a big operation, you are pretty much untouchable. That creates unbelievable complacency, which in turn creates problems - see Stafford, see financial meldown, see that whic cannot be mentioned and so on. It's been a big problem in this country for many decades and has actively harmed us by helping to destroy many industries. In Europe, the Commission is a very similar proposition.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/keithcooper/2013/06/theres-more-to-fixing-the-nhs-than-chasing-ae-waiting-times/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22983660
uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-22975287
Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.
As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.
That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.
Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
•Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (51%)
•Jeb Bush (R) 43% (40%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (52%)
•Marco Rubio (R) 41% (41%)
•Jeb Bush (R) 47%
•Joe Biden (D) 43%
•Marco Rubio (R) 45%
•Joe Biden (D) 43%
•Hillary Clinton 66%
•Joe Biden 11%
•Andrew Cuomo 1%
•Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
•Mark Warner 1%
•Martin O’Malley 0%
•Brian Schweitzer 0%
1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.
2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..
3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..
4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.
5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.
6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.
None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.
Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/8940631/george-osbornes-own-personal-recovery/
Amazing to think that the two politicians who came under the most flak during the early years of the coalition - Nick Clegg and George Osborne - are now enjoying extraordinary comebacks. I feel sorry for Ed Balls in all of this. If his leader hadn't insisted on that ham-fisted conversion to the Osborne economic model then those two wouldn't appear to have been so comprehensibly vindicated. Where does Labour go from here? Global warming is looking a bit dodgy these days, so it's not as if Miliband can slug it out with the Greens.
As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:
1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low
2. A record trade surplus
3. A current account only marginally below its all time record
4. A balanced budget (just)
5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)
Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.
I was just passing on GloucesterOldSpot's response to the Lincolnshire Misanthrope.
But then I see you are following my precedent by passiing on the comments of GOS's cousin, MickP0rk.
And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.
Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.
And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.
In January of this year I posted many times on the much respected website, PB, of the desperate need to sign a striker to bolster our squad and try and secure Champions League.
You chose to ignore my advice, nay pleas. We missed out by a whisker after unexpected business downturn in the Fulham, Norwich, QPR areas.
Despite G. Bale Esq. providing superb club service, now is the time to show the aforementioned staff member and the business as a whole that you are trying to build a team and not waiting to buy a few token recruits as a pay off should you elect to sell our core asset.
It is still early but the longer the silence on new recruits to the business, the more restless staff and suppliers will become and the suspicion that once again the heart of our business will be ripped out just as our new trading year commences may occur - witness Messrs, Carrick and Berbatov to our competitors in previous trading periods.
Yes we are a business and realising assets when they are fully valued is wise-business but it cuts away the long-term growth of the firm at the expense of short term profit if we continue to do that.
Yours sincerely
Scrapheap shareholder (delisted)
Firstly, look at the chart of German GDP-per-capita at PPP - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita-ppp - and tell me that Germans aren't doing very nicely even on that metric.
Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
I made up the multiples on the quick so they are not well thought out... Maybe no more than double a top doctors salary.
People are entrusted with patients lives for £60-70k though
1. I concede on GDP per capita but just look at what Gordon did to the UK's performance.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
Now look at the improvement since Jeffrey took over and on a rate of improvement basis it more than competes with Angela's wizardry. Still we are only at just less than three quarters of Germany's level.
Time for you to revive the derivatives market, Robert, and people will start thinking the battle with Germany is all over again.
2. If Deutsche Bank bought the entire Spanish banking sector, Germany might start to flatline on that graph.
I was using 'contingent liabilities' in a more general sense of Germany underwriting the Eurozone, though the specific measure you referred me to does appear to be a worked metric along these lines.
The "we're all in it together" meme should have been fleshed out with the government explaining that personal consumption had been allowed to reach unsustainable levels and that for the next generation living standards would for most people either be stagnant or in decline. Blame could have placed on Labour for this and explanations made about an unbalanced economy, insufficient infrastructure investment, the effects of globalisation and the shift in economic power to Asia.
Issues such as the decline in economic and social mobility, sustainable living and the importance of quality of life over mere living standards could have been emphasised.
Instead the unsustainable levels of consumption have been treated as the minimum level allowable and government borrowing used to maintain them.
With the result that most people think we've undergone austerity and that it will soon be time to increase spending again. when in reality we haven't and spending has continued to increase.
Not only is the economy in a worse state to accept the inevitable changes but the British people are in a worse state psychologically to accept them as well.
Now at some point economic reality will be imposed on Britain and we will suffer far more than we needed because our political 'leaders' chose to preference their own narrow tactical political needs over the long term good of the country.
Instead we had George Osborne basing economic strategy upon an increase in household borrowing.
If we merged Oxfordshire and Warwickshire and made Warwick University a college of OU, then wouldn't everyone but Prof. Davey be happy?
You must understand I am a conciliator at heart.