So UKIP, which stands for nothing, is now self-destructing.
Not at all, UKIP are simply reasserting the Cult of Farage. Heretics have been burned. Only Carswell remains to bend the knee officially
It is indeed a cult. The tone of all the kipper comments anywhere on the web shows exactly what it is. The question is, having been forced to get rid of his two minimees, who will Farage dredge up now? Only a few weeks ago O'Flynn was being lauded as a sane rarity in UKIP. Who is a credible financial spokesman now?
The question is, having been forced to get rid of his two minimees, who will Farage dredge up now? Only a few weeks ago O'Flynn was being lauded as a sane rarity in UKIP. Who is a credible financial spokesman now?
What possible use would a credible financial spokesman be to the Cult of Farage?
Did the entire shadow cabinet not wear their glasses for the last year or so?
:insert cutting political satire here:
Is there a technical reason for politicians not wearing glasses, besides vanity? Flash glare or reflection in photos, perhaps?
I used to enjoy watching Peter Shore use his glasses to point and gesture, during his speeches.
Image is everything. Beards went after focus groups found they made the speaker less 'trustworthy'. We're heading toward the tanned, coiffured, news-anchor-lookalike politics of the US, bit by bit. The slow Chuka-isation of Westminster.
Fortunately there are some real mingers in the SNP (male and female), which should hold back the tide a little longer.
See also the horrific state of Labour & the Lib Dems in Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next result in Scotland was something like (ignoring boundary changes):
The writer is a Labour NEC member and indicates that the NEC were well aware of SLAB's problems and chose to do nothing.
The article in the New statesman is still along the lines of, it's all the snp's fault for lying so brilliantly. Amazingly he thinks the media has been in this SNP's pocket.
There's no suggestion as to what Labour actually needs to have done differently ( bar listening, but not saying what they should have been listening to)
Does anyone else have trouble with their iPhone crashing on this webpage when they try and write a comment to post here? It happens for me 2/3rd of the time. So frustrating.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
I think he was referring to the fear factor which may have persuaded english voters to back the Tories.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
I think he was referring to the fear factor which may have persuaded english voters to back the Tories.
Well, that was down to Mr Miliband and Mr Cameron!
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
I think he was referring to the fear factor which may have persuaded english voters to back the Tories.
Well, that was down to Mr Miliband and Mr Cameron!
And the mere fact of the SNP's existence. You guys are pretty scary...
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives. wWhat Lynton couldn't achieve with EdM he got with AlexS. Even the Cons weren't expecting to win a majority
2. the SNP took seats from Labour so Labour were miles from the start line post GE even if the cons had fallen short.
Does anyone else have trouble with their iPhone crashing on this webpage when they try and write a comment to post here? It happens for me 2/3rd of the time. So frustrating.
I dont use an iphone but the advice has been given to use the Chrome app rather than safari.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
I think he was referring to the fear factor which may have persuaded english voters to back the Tories.
Well, that was down to Mr Miliband and Mr Cameron!
Does anyone else have trouble with their iPhone crashing on this webpage when they try and write a comment to post here? It happens for me 2/3rd of the time. So frustrating.
I dont use an iphone but the advice has been given to use the Chrome app rather than safari.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives.
See also the horrific state of Labour & the Lib Dems in Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next result in Scotland was something like (ignoring boundary changes):
SNP 49 Con 6 Lab 3 LD 1
of likely trends based on current polling.
Optimistic to use those.
Survation pretty much nailed the GE2015 result, they weight by region which is helpful. I think given the state SLAB and SLID are in, we can expect to see SNP surge to around 55%, will be interesting to monitor whether this represents peak SNP.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives. wWhat Lynton couldn't achieve with EdM he got with AlexS. Even the Cons weren't expecting to win a majority
2. the SNP took seats from Labour so Labour were miles from the start line post GE even if the cons had fallen short.
go figure
On 2, bear in mind that the SNP were never going to support the Tories, so a straight Lab to SNP seat transfer did not help the Tories at all, but was if anything trickier for them. Indeed, the SNP taking of seats from the LDs made it easier for Labour as it reduced the value of LDs to a Tory-LD coalition.
It arguably wasn't the SNP who scared English voters. It was the image of them created during the campaign waged by the Tories. Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature. The unfortunate inconsistency of that with the Unionist promises during Indyref, however, cannot but have helped the SNP their victory in Scotland, though perhaps making not much difference given the size of the swings.
Reverting to topic, it's been very interesting to read about NI politics for a change: much appreciated.
@paulwaugh: Ed Miliband, of course, has already sworn on the #edstone. But likely to affirm.
Perhaps they should settle the Labour leadership issue by embedding a sword in the #edstone and getting the contestants to try to pull it out.
Arf! The Ed Stone. The gift that keeps giving....
To quote a peasant in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
"Watery tarts lying in ponds is no basis for a system of government, real legitimacy springs from a mandate from the masses"
By the way, might I please inquire, have you signed the petition to make Leicester a detached Scottish territory (presumably with Corby, Huntingtonshire, etc.)?
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives.
Of a massive -0.35% woo-hoo!
Yeah, what would it have been without the SNP fear factor?
@paulwaugh: Ed Miliband, of course, has already sworn on the #edstone. But likely to affirm.
Perhaps they should settle the Labour leadership issue by embedding a sword in the #edstone and getting the contestants to try to pull it out.
Arf! The Ed Stone. The gift that keeps giving....
To quote a peasant in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
"Watery tarts lying in ponds is no basis for a system of government, real legitimacy springs from a mandate from the masses"
By the way, might I please inquire, have you signed the petition to make Leicester a detached Scottish territory (presumably with Corby, Huntingtonshire, etc.)?
Not really. Indeed most seats in Leics the Con vote went up, in part a response to the risk of the SNP holding the balance of power.
I hope Mr Wisheart enjoys squabbling over the best seat to keep a watch on a majority government. It must be a splendid sight.
As for the news that Farage is getting rid of his critics inside UKIP, the fact is simple, as long as Farage has a majority of members on his side no one can move him out but he can move everyone else out.
There are 3 ways which Farage will no longer be UKIP leader: 1. Death or physical incapacitation. 2. Willing retirement. 3. A UKIP senior figure that eclipses Farage within the membership.
For no.3 to happen the UKIP membership composition will have to radically change with a mass influx of more moderate members, which probably won't happen as long as Farage is leader, so you are back to steps 1&2.
By the way, might I please inquire, have you signed the petition to make Leicester a detached Scottish territory (presumably with Corby, Huntingtonshire, etc.)?
Not really. Indeed most seats in Leics the Con vote went up, in part a response to the risk of the SNP holding the balance of power.
I hope Mr Wisheart enjoys squabbling over the best seat to keep a watch on a majority government. It must be a splendid sight.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives.
Of a massive -0.35% woo-hoo!
Yeah, what would it have been without the SNP fear factor?
Note the minus sign - so it was actually a 0.4% swing to Team Ed!
Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature.
You seem to be suggesting that seeing the real Nicola Sturgeon softened the impact of the Tory scare tactics. I think the opposite is the case. People could see with their own eyes that Sturgeon was in a different league to Miliband as a politician and drew their own conclusions about how a Labour minority government would work in practice.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives. wWhat Lynton couldn't achieve with EdM he got with AlexS. Even the Cons weren't expecting to win a majority
2. the SNP took seats from Labour so Labour were miles from the start line post GE even if the cons had fallen short.
go figure
On 2, bear in mind that the SNP were never going to support the Tories, so a straight Lab to SNP seat transfer did not help the Tories at all, but was if anything trickier for them. Indeed, the SNP taking of seats from the LDs made it easier for Labour as it reduced the value of LDs to a Tory-LD coalition.
It arguably wasn't the SNP who scared English voters. It was the image of them created during the campaign waged by the Tories. Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature. The unfortunate inconsistency of that with the Unionist promises during Indyref, however, cannot but have helped the SNP their victory in Scotland, though perhaps making not much difference given the size of the swings.
Reverting to topic, it's been very interesting to read about NI politics for a change: much appreciated.
well Mr C believe what you will, but the one time I waivered about not voting Conservative at the last GE was when I saw Sturgeon on TV caliming she was the kingmaker.
In the event I stuck to my guns and spoiled my vote, but lots of others will have been coralled back by Project Fear.
By the way, might I please inquire, have you signed the petition to make Leicester a detached Scottish territory (presumably with Corby, Huntingtonshire, etc.)?
Not really. Indeed most seats in Leics the Con vote went up, in part a response to the risk of the SNP holding the balance of power.
I hope Mr Wisheart enjoys squabbling over the best seat to keep a watch on a majority government. It must be a splendid sight.
From my conversations, most Scots resident in England are quite pro-union. Perhaps not too surprising really!
It's designed to push all the buttons of Salmond's haters. It is so studied in its casual arrogance.
He's certainly tramping the dirt down.
How could Jim Murphy have conceived of trying to stay as Scottish Labour leader given the defeat it had suffered with him at the helm? Whether or not it was his fault, the only honourable thing to do was to resign and to resign quickly.
I'm surprised that Alex Salmond doesn't draw that contrast with himself explicitly.
As for the news that Farage is getting rid of his critics inside UKIP, the fact is simple, as long as Farage has a majority of members on his side no one can move him out but he can move everyone else out.
There are 3 ways which Farage will no longer be UKIP leader: 1. Death or physical incapacitation. 2. Willing retirement. 3. A UKIP senior figure that eclipses Farage within the membership.
Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature.
You seem to be suggesting that seeing the real Nicola Sturgeon softened the impact of the Tory scare tactics. I think the opposite is the case. People could see with their own eyes that Sturgeon was in a different league to Miliband as a politician and drew their own conclusions about how a Labour minority government would work in practice.
Thanks, that's an interesting subtlety. I got the impression at the time that the result was actually quite mixed - some Labour voters were actually thinking, good at least she would keep his nose to the grindstone etc., and so on. That would certainly have been the case in Scotland where a Miliband/Sturgeon combination was pretty popular.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
Why shouldn't he sit there? SNP oppose the government too.
lol, the SNP secured the government's majority, how's that opposition ?
#toriesweehelpers
You do need to do yur arithmetic (and so do a lot of Labour types). If every seat won by the SNP from Labour had been retained by Labour, Mr Cameron would have been in power with a majority still. (Interesting issue is what happens to the LD seats, in terms of continuing the Coalition, but IIRC they don't make any difference.)
you do need to get your head straight.
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives. wWhat Lynton couldn't achieve with EdM he got with AlexS. Even the Cons weren't expecting to win a majority
2. the SNP took seats from Labour so Labour were miles from the start line post GE even if the cons had fallen short.
go figure
On 2, bear in mind that the SNP were never going to support the Tories, so a straight Lab to SNP seat transfer did not help the Tories at all, but was if anything trickier for them. Indeed, the SNP taking of seats from the LDs made it easier for Labour as it reduced the value of LDs to a Tory-LD coalition.
It arguably wasn't the SNP who scared English voters. It was the image of them created during the campaign waged by the Tories. Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature. The unfortunate inconsistency of that with the Unionist promises during Indyref, however, cannot but have helped the SNP their victory in Scotland, though perhaps making not much difference given the size of the swings.
Reverting to topic, it's been very interesting to read about NI politics for a change: much appreciated.
well Mr C believe what you will, but the one time I waivered about not voting Conservative at the last GE was when I saw Sturgeon on TV caliming she was the kingmaker.
In the event I stuck to my guns and spoiled my vote, but lots of others will have been coralled back by Project Fear.
Great article. Nice to see Northern Ireland covered. It was an interesting year (if "interesting" is the right word) for the Alliance Party. They lost their only seat to the UUP/DUP pact, but a good increase in overall vote share. Is this the first time that Alliance has polled better than the LibDems on the mainland?
When the Tories were in opposition they said they would reduce the number of MPs to 585. When they were in coalition they said they would reduce the number to 600. Now they're in single-party government they say they're going to keep the number at 650.
The SNP lost the election for the SNP - they may have swept Scotland but were so toxic and repellent to the rUk that they ensured their coalition buddies Labour were holed beneath the water line.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
Basil McCrea set up NI21, which has proved to be something of a disaster
Interesting piece Lucian! But I fear you are damning NI21 with faint praise. Only "something" of a disaster?
Their collapse was a beautifully scripted, utterly captivating piece of political theatre. The choreography, right in the run-up to an election, was masterful. It was by turns bizarre, twisting, human and surreal. It was also by far the funniest thing in politics in 2014, and quite possibly for the entire Westminster Coalition period.
It is often complained that UKIP are an amateurish party, and with good reason. The War of The Thickness of Nigel's Skin is also quite funny, but as political infighting goes that is a purely am dram production. NI21 showed how the professionals put on a proper political implosion. For starters, split up (a) just before the electorate get to the polling booths, rather than after the event, and (b) ensure that you poll disastrously rather than in the millions, thus depriving yourself of even a moral victory.
The SNP lost the election for the SNP - they may have swept Scotland but were so toxic and repellent to the rUk that they ensured their coalition buddies Labour were holed beneath the water line.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
Not the SNP's fault Labour were fricking useless !
Incidentally, does anyone know why UKIP have succeeded in gaining traction in NI better than other mainland parties have? Is it just a personalities thing? (The NI kipper-voters I know of are probably rather far removed from the average so I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions from my anecdotal awareness.)
Does anyone know when the next Scottish and Welsh elections after next year will be? Originally they were set to be every 4 years 1999-2003-2007-2011. This meant the next one would have been 2015 but it was delayed for a year due to clashing with the UK GE. Does the next one after that revert to the original schedule and take place in 2019 or is it 4 years from 2016 which would be 2020, Of course that would clash with the UK GE again so you could end up pushing them back to 2021 and de facto making them 5 years.
The SNP lost the election for the SNP - they may have swept Scotland but were so toxic and repellent to the rUk that they ensured their coalition buddies Labour were holed beneath the water line.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
It may also be wise of SNP MPs to not deliberately antagonise their only possible coalition partner at Westminster by fighting over trivialities.
When the Tories were in opposition they said they would reduce the number of MPs to 585. When they were in coalition they said they would reduce the number to 600. Now they're in single-party government they say they're going to keep the number at 650.
They would do better to reduce the number of Lords (whether elected or not). The Lords is the world's only Upper House bigger than its respective Lower House.
It's designed to push all the buttons of Salmond's haters. It is so studied in its casual arrogance.
He's certainly tramping the dirt down.
How could Jim Murphy have conceived of trying to stay as Scottish Labour leader given the defeat it had suffered with him at the helm? Whether or not it was his fault, the only honourable thing to do was to resign and to resign quickly.
I'm surprised that Alex Salmond doesn't draw that contrast with himself explicitly.
The comparison could also be extended to the lack of succession planning. Indeed, quite the reverse: one of the oddest things of all is that Mr Murphy on one reading seems to have been trying to drag his deputy Kezia Dugdale down with him, with the help of Mr McTernan his CoS.
They believed it would be better if Murphy led Scottish Labour into the 2016 Holyrood election, take the hit, and hand over to Dugdale.
If Dugdale took over immediately, her allies feared she would get hammered next year and become a lame duck.
One senior party insider said the relationship between Dugdale and McTernan - Murphy's chief of staff - had "broken down completely".
McTernan had tried to link Dugdale's future to Murphy's fate as leader by arguing that a no-confidence motion in his boss was also a rejection of the deputy."
Incidentally, does anyone know why UKIP have succeeded in gaining traction in NI better than other mainland parties have? Is it just a personalities thing? (The NI kipper-voters I know of are probably rather far removed from the average so I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions from my anecdotal awareness.)
Primarily because a UUP councillor Henry Reilly defected to UKIP in 2007.
"I got the impression at the time that the result was actually quite mixed - some Labour voters were actually thinking, good at least she would keep his nose to the grindstone etc., and so on."
I think that was the case with some diehard Labour voters here (Merseyside), but for the undecided, Nicola was Baron Samedi to the animated corpse of Labour (Ed).
The SNP lost the election for the SNP - they may have swept Scotland but were so toxic and repellent to the rUk that they ensured their coalition buddies Labour were holed beneath the water line.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
It may also be wise of SNP MPs to not deliberately antagonise their only possible coalition partner at Westminster by fighting over trivialities.
Getting the whole of the Westminster establishment against them is not outwith the SNP's interests... Labour OTOH need the SNP more than the SNP need Labour.
Incidentally, the bakery Ashers has possibly got the most Northern Irish name ever. In the words of the judgment:
"its name is derived from a reference in the Book of Genesis, Chapter 49:20 which says “Bread from Asher shall be rich, and he shall yield royal dainties”.
When the Tories were in opposition they said they would reduce the number of MPs to 585. When they were in coalition they said they would reduce the number to 600. Now they're in single-party government they say they're going to keep the number at 650.
Where have they said that? I guess they can't risk any of their own MPs rebelling on the boundaries
The SNP lost the election for the SNP - they may have swept Scotland but were so toxic and repellent to the rUk that they ensured their coalition buddies Labour were holed beneath the water line.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
Not the SNP's fault Labour were fricking useless !
last thing you want on a sh1t sandwich is salt n sauce.
As for the news that Farage is getting rid of his critics inside UKIP, the fact is simple, as long as Farage has a majority of members on his side no one can move him out but he can move everyone else out.
There are 3 ways which Farage will no longer be UKIP leader: 1. Death or physical incapacitation. 2. Willing retirement. 3. A UKIP senior figure that eclipses Farage within the membership.
For no.3 to happen the UKIP membership composition will have to radically change with a mass influx of more moderate members, which probably won't happen as long as Farage is leader, so you are back to steps 1&2.
Just goes to show how much of a NOTA party UKIP always were. No agenda save for the one that the Cons have adopted, no hope, no anything.
I feel sorry for Carswell. Were he more dynamic he could make a play to create a new party with some interesting policies, or to position UKIP as a something party.
As is, it is a nothing party and as well as Carswell I really do feel for those 4m people although as a NOTA it has worked spectacularly well as their "none" seems to have included the actual party they voted for itself.
(Edit: to be clear, I always respected their position on Europe but believe they are (nothing more than) a pressure group. This has been borne out in the light of events.)
@PickardJE: Labour gives mansion tax the last rites http://t.co/3t3ReHo4B3 "everything has to be in the review pot" says shadow chancellor Chris Leslie
When the Tories were in opposition they said they would reduce the number of MPs to 585. When they were in coalition they said they would reduce the number to 600. Now they're in single-party government they say they're going to keep the number at 650.
Has this now been confirmed? I thought 600 was still on the cards.
@PickardJE: Labour gives mansion tax the last rites http://t.co/3t3ReHo4B3 "everything has to be in the review pot" says shadow chancellor Chris Leslie
Incidentally, does anyone know why UKIP have succeeded in gaining traction in NI better than other mainland parties have? Is it just a personalities thing? (The NI kipper-voters I know of are probably rather far removed from the average so I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions from my anecdotal awareness.)
Primarily because a UUP councillor Henry Reilly defected to UKIP in 2007.
I know there have been some defecctions - surely David McNarry in 2012 is the bigger one, as he's in the assembly? - but my uninformed impression was that in the last couple of years UKIP have started taking somewhat more serious root. Might be a piddly number of activists but they've actually got some sort of operation up and running there, not just a couple of defectors backed up by paper candidates,
When the Tories were in opposition they said they would reduce the number of MPs to 585. When they were in coalition they said they would reduce the number to 600. Now they're in single-party government they say they're going to keep the number at 650.
Incidentally, the bakery Ashers has possibly got the most Northern Irish name ever. In the words of the judgment:
"its name is derived from a reference in the Book of Genesis, Chapter 49:20 which says “Bread from Asher shall be rich, and he shall yield royal dainties”.
An insane judgment, which once again extends the meaning of direct discrimination in a fashion which Parliament, or in this case the maker of the regulations, never intended. Consider the absurdity of the statement at paragraph [42]: "I regard the criterion to be “support for same sex marriage” which is indissociable from sexual orientation." The District Judge seems to be implying that heterosexuals ipso facto do not support same sex marriage. That is news to me. I am not sure whether an appeal lies first to the High Court or Court of Appeal in Northern Ireland against a judgment of a District Judge in the County Court, but this judgment is wrong and needs to be reversed.
Does anyone know when the next Scottish and Welsh elections after next year will be? Originally they were set to be every 4 years 1999-2003-2007-2011. This meant the next one would have been 2015 but it was delayed for a year due to clashing with the UK GE. Does the next one after that revert to the original schedule and take place in 2019 or is it 4 years from 2016 which would be 2020, Of course that would clash with the UK GE again so you could end up pushing them back to 2021 and de facto making them 5 years.
Not sure about Scotland - but the Welsh one has been set to a 5 year timetable (2016 +5n) under the Wales (2014) Act. Suspect that Scotland and NI should be likewise.
Mr. Antifrank, we just had a pretty severe hailstorm here.
But I'm confused by your statement. We already know gay frisky time causes flooding, so surely the presence, rather than the absence, of gay cakes [and other culinary objects] would cause hail?
The whisky arrived at 0930 this morning, Doc, thank you.
What made you pick a German supplier? The idea that whisky from Islay is exported to Germany before being packaged up nicely and then delivered to England is not an immediately obvious business proposition.
One interesting aspect is how good a predictor gaining 39+% is for getting the final number of seats. It seems to work for all parties.
UKIPs problem is that they have only 1 in that category and only 16 within 15% of that target (over 25%). LDs have 48 in that range, Lab 389 and Con 438.
It looks as if a LD or Lab recovery (or an increased Con majority) is well within grasp, while for kippers it looks out of reach to reach breakthrough.
Incidentally, if District Judge Brownlie's assessment of the law is correct, it is now unlawful throughout the United Kingdom for a Muslim printer to refuse to print cartoons of his Prophet, for an atheist baker to refuse to accept to bake a cake with the slogan all "Infidels will burn in Hell" or for a church newspaper which accepts advertising to refuse to print pro-abortion advertisements. That is an intolerable threat to freedom of expression.
Comments
The question is, having been forced to get rid of his two minimees, who will Farage dredge up now? Only a few weeks ago O'Flynn was being lauded as a sane rarity in UKIP. Who is a credible financial spokesman now?
I used to enjoy watching Peter Shore use his glasses to point and gesture, during his speeches.
what do you expect from a man whose name is an anagram of "we're part shit"
Fortunately there are some real mingers in the SNP (male and female), which should hold back the tide a little longer.
There's no suggestion as to what Labour actually needs to have done differently ( bar listening, but not saying what they should have been listening to)
UKIP - c. 30% of the UKIP + Con votes and 1/330th of the seats...
#toriesweehelpers
1. the SNP and associated bragadaccio scared the crap out of english voters so there was a swing to the conservatives. wWhat Lynton couldn't achieve with EdM he got with AlexS. Even the Cons weren't expecting to win a majority
2. the SNP took seats from Labour so Labour were miles from the start line post GE even if the cons had fallen short.
go figure
"...while Nesbitt has queried the validity of an opinion poll..."
I trust he was promptly banned from PB
"Watery tarts lying in ponds is no basis for a system of government, real legitimacy springs from a mandate from the masses"
It arguably wasn't the SNP who scared English voters. It was the image of them created during the campaign waged by the Tories. Remember the impact, limited as the exposure was, of seeing Nicola Sturgeon live on debate, and not in a Tory media caricature. The unfortunate inconsistency of that with the Unionist promises during Indyref, however, cannot but have helped the SNP their victory in Scotland, though perhaps making not much difference given the size of the swings.
Reverting to topic, it's been very interesting to read about NI politics for a change: much appreciated.
@tombradby: This is possibly the least gracious piece I have ever read by a politician; http://t.co/5xT6CDInMt
@ftwestminster: Labour to review policy platform http://t.co/rlevCGZObG
I hope Mr Wisheart enjoys squabbling over the best seat to keep a watch on a majority government. It must be a splendid sight.
There are 3 ways which Farage will no longer be UKIP leader:
1. Death or physical incapacitation.
2. Willing retirement.
3. A UKIP senior figure that eclipses Farage within the membership.
For no.3 to happen the UKIP membership composition will have to radically change with a mass influx of more moderate members, which probably won't happen as long as Farage is leader, so you are back to steps 1&2.
In the event I stuck to my guns and spoiled my vote, but lots of others will have been coralled back by Project Fear.
How could Jim Murphy have conceived of trying to stay as Scottish Labour leader given the defeat it had suffered with him at the helm? Whether or not it was his fault, the only honourable thing to do was to resign and to resign quickly.
I'm surprised that Alex Salmond doesn't draw that contrast with himself explicitly.
If they want to have influence in Westminster they may need not to be so narrow minded regarding their coalition partners.
Their collapse was a beautifully scripted, utterly captivating piece of political theatre. The choreography, right in the run-up to an election, was masterful. It was by turns bizarre, twisting, human and surreal. It was also by far the funniest thing in politics in 2014, and quite possibly for the entire Westminster Coalition period.
It is often complained that UKIP are an amateurish party, and with good reason. The War of The Thickness of Nigel's Skin is also quite funny, but as political infighting goes that is a purely am dram production. NI21 showed how the professionals put on a proper political implosion. For starters, split up (a) just before the electorate get to the polling booths, rather than after the event, and (b) ensure that you poll disastrously rather than in the millions, thus depriving yourself of even a moral victory.
True, their vote went up 0.7% on 2010, but Labour's went up by 1.4%
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-the-humbling-of-a-leader.126258499
"Many of her supporters were urging Murphy to stay, not out of respect for him, but because they felt the timing was wrong for Dugdale to take over.
They believed it would be better if Murphy led Scottish Labour into the 2016 Holyrood election, take the hit, and hand over to Dugdale.
If Dugdale took over immediately, her allies feared she would get hammered next year and become a lame duck.
One senior party insider said the relationship between Dugdale and McTernan - Murphy's chief of staff - had "broken down completely".
McTernan had tried to link Dugdale's future to Murphy's fate as leader by arguing that a no-confidence motion in his boss was also a rejection of the deputy."
"I got the impression at the time that the result was actually quite mixed - some Labour voters were actually thinking, good at least she would keep his nose to the grindstone etc., and so on."
I think that was the case with some diehard Labour voters here (Merseyside), but for the undecided, Nicola was Baron Samedi to the animated corpse of Labour (Ed).
"its name is derived from a reference in the Book of Genesis, Chapter 49:20 which says “Bread from Asher shall be rich, and he shall yield royal dainties”.
"Good to see Lucian Fletcher back. If I knew you were coming I'd have baked a cake."
LOL.
I feel sorry for Carswell. Were he more dynamic he could make a play to create a new party with some interesting policies, or to position UKIP as a something party.
As is, it is a nothing party and as well as Carswell I really do feel for those 4m people although as a NOTA it has worked spectacularly well as their "none" seems to have included the actual party they voted for itself.
(Edit: to be clear, I always respected their position on Europe but believe they are (nothing more than) a pressure group. This has been borne out in the light of events.)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/159YuDClzywqEGU1wAmBQrlq-YSngarQNNrMWdZVyyLk/edit?pli=1#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEU5dHJHUE9hWHZzS2ZaR0V0a080T0E&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
I blame that cake judgment, personally.
But I'm confused by your statement. We already know gay frisky time causes flooding, so surely the presence, rather than the absence, of gay cakes [and other culinary objects] would cause hail?
The whisky arrived at 0930 this morning, Doc, thank you.
What made you pick a German supplier? The idea that whisky from Islay is exported to Germany before being packaged up nicely and then delivered to England is not an immediately obvious business proposition.
One interesting aspect is how good a predictor gaining 39+% is for getting the final number of seats. It seems to work for all parties.
UKIPs problem is that they have only 1 in that category and only 16 within 15% of that target (over 25%). LDs have 48 in that range, Lab 389 and Con 438.
It looks as if a LD or Lab recovery (or an increased Con majority) is well within grasp, while for kippers it looks out of reach to reach breakthrough.
On that far off day when I have an excess of money, I may try procuring small amounts of whisky.