Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension – the re-emergence of the UUP
There is little doubt that the UUP will regard the general election as a success. They had no seats, they now have two. Fermanagh and South Tyrone was won by Tom Elliott after a deal was struck with the DUP and other unionist parties. South Antrim was taken from the DUP’s William McCrea by Danny Kinahan.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Second question: Where do the parties stand on the vexed topic of annotated baked goods?
Rochester and Strood were won by one person too................................................................................................................................................................................
Normalising politics in NI by having a proper opposition sounds good, but are they ready? I'd hope so, and there seems to be some appetite for considering it, but every now and then something crops up inthe politics there just to be depressingly static it seems.
Still, all sides agreed they wanted more money from the Treasury I think, so they can all agree on some things.
Second question: Where do the parties stand on the vexed topic of annotated baked goods?
But two parties.
Second question: Where do the parties stand on the vexed topic of annotated baked goods?
* splutters Coke all over monitor *
In the Westminster parliament, presumably those two UUP MPs will be fairly reliable supporters of the government, which could be critical if the current small majority gets whittled away in by-elections.
Highbury and Islington is served by a single station
Back in 1998, they opposed the Good Friday agreement, along with the now defunct UKUP.
Visa Versa the SDLP were seen in the same light by the nationalists. Both communities decided that in future they were best placed 'negotiating from Strength', hence why SF & the DUP have both prospered, because they are seen to stand up firmer for each community.
Ironic really when both the DUP and SF have learned to live with eachother.
David Trimble is the Nick Clegg of Northern Ireland. Believing he put is countries long term interest ahead of his party.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597933396283777024
SNP 49 Con 6 Lab 3 LD 1
3 borders and WAK, but after that it gets tricky - Stirling and East Renfrewshire or Perth North Perthshire ?
The cake debate on the last thread reminds me of an incident during the campaign. We decided to rent a shopfront for 6 weeks, and reached agreement with the leaseholder on an empty shop. However, the freeholder was outraged ("I don't want my shop rented out to the bloody reds") and although under her agreement with the leaseholder, the latter was entitled to sublet, she raised practical issues to make it difficult, e.g. dragging her feet on reconnecting the electricity. We shrugged, and took a different shop instead.
Now there is no legal bar against discriminating for political reasons, But if we'd been a religious group, would this behaviour have constituted illegal discrimination? Is subletting a shop a normal trading activity?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/600283502966345729
But the question that hangs over Rotherham -- and which even the latest independent review could not answer -- is why so many people got away with these crimes for so long. It was left to a few intrepid journalists and four private citizens to uphold the law.
"It appears inevitable that Mr. Rahman will denounce this judgement as yet another instance of the racism and Islamophobia that have hounded him. ... It is nothing of the sort. The law must apply fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost." — Judge Richard Mawrey QC.
Bad people do bad things, but when all the institutions of state fail to stop them, that is a problem for us all.
Not only that a very dubious judgement in N. Ireland
A judge has ruled that a Christian-run bakery discriminated against a gay customer by refusing to make a cake with a pro-gay marriage slogan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32791239
if this is not enough, MORDOR is distributing RINGS again
So nowadays is there a meaningful difference? Other than that carried in the very, very long memories of the locals?
If Andy's not around, I'll try and find them in previous threads right now
And the SDLP had the largest fall in their share of the vote and lost no seats at all?
I fear that despite Lucian's excellent effort NI politics is going to stay in my "too difficult" tray.
Hat-tip to AndyJS:
Yorkshire & The Humber region (with correct 2010 figures):
2015:
Lab: 956,837 (39.15%)
Con: 796,822 (32.60%)
UKIP: 391,923 (16.03%)
LD: 174,069 (7.12%)
Greens; 86,471 (3.54%)
Others: 38,055 (1.56%)
TOTAL: 2,444,177
2010:
Lab: 826,537 (34.35%)
Con: 790,062 (32.83%)
LD: 552,570 (22.96%)
UKIP: 68,378 (2.84%)
Greens: 20,824 (0.87%)
Others: 148,048 (6.15%)
Hat-tip to AndyJS:
North West region:
2015:
Lab: 1,502,047 (44.65%)
Con: 1,050,124 (31.22%)
UKIP: 459,071 (13.65%)
LD: 219,998 (6.54%)
Greens: 107,889 (3.21%)
Others: 24,926 (0.74%)
TOTAL: 3,364,055
2010:
Lab: 1,292,978 (39.47%)
Con: 1,038,967 (31.71%)
LD: 707,770 (21.60%)
UKIP: 103,782 (3.17%)
Greens: 17,046 (0.52%)
Others: 115,687 (3.53%)
TOTAL: 3,276,230
I also think its to do with Game Theory.
The Nationalists/Republicans are convinced the Unionists will vote for the most 'extreme' mainstream option, in this case the DUP. So they vote for their own 'extremists' SF.
The Unionists are convinced the Nats will vote for the most 'extreme' mainstream option, in this case SF, so they vote for their own 'extremists' the DUP.
Hope that makes sense?!
The appointment of the new Advocate General for Scotland has been delayed for well over a week now. The reason is that the person to be appointed is Richard Keen QC who is currently acting for a certain Mr Coulson in a trial before the High Court in Edinburgh.
Any actual appointment has clearly been delayed so as not to interrupt his defence.
Thoughtful.
These considerations don't apply with STV in six-member constituencies.
Hat-tip to AndyJS:
South East region:
2015:
Con: 2,234,440 (50.85%)
Lab: 804,774 (18.31%)
UKIP: 641,475 (14.60%)
LD: 413,586 (9.41%)
Greens: 233,759 (5.32%)
Others: 66,407 (1.51%)
TOTAL: 4,394,441
2010:
Con: 2,140,895 (49.86%)
LD: 1,124,786 (26.19%)
Lab: 697,567 (16.24%)
UKIP: 177,269 (4.13%)
Greens: 62,124 (1.45%)
Others: 91,599 (2.13%)
TOTAL: 4,294,240
I have regressed Andy JS's data on regional Con-Lab swings against net immigration as a proportion of the population between 2008-13 (the last five-year period for which I could find statistics). I took out Scotland, where the Con-Lab swing isn't very meaningful because the main movement was to the SNP.
The result shows a positive correlation of 0.4898: net immigration is associated with a higher swing to Labour. Almost one half of the variation in Con-Lab swings is explained in that way.
However, a couple of caveats: as usual, correlation does not mean causation; and the sample size is small, leading to small t-statistics.
If it's more than 30 days after the broadcast without the signing then it can be that only the broadcast with the signing is available on iplayer.
Eastern region:
2015:
Con: 1,445,946 (47.74%)
Lab: 649,320 (21.44%)
UKIP: 558,517 (18.44%)
LD: 243,191 (8.03%)
Greens: 116,274 (3.84%)
Others: 15,374 (0.51%)
TOTAL: 3,028,622
2010:
Con: 1,356,739 (47.12%)
LD: 692,932 (24.07%)
Lab: 564,581 (19.61%)
UKIP: 123,237 (4.28%)
Greens: 42,677 (1.48%)
Others: 98,951 (3.44%)
TOTAL: 2,879,117
Hat-tip to AndyJS:
South West region:
2015:
Con: 1,319,994 (46.54%)
Lab: 501,684 (17.69%)
LD: 428,873 (15.12%)
UKIP: 384,546 (13.56%)
Greens: 168,130 (5.93%)
Others: 33,013 (1.16%)
TOTAL: 2,836,240
2010:
Con: 1,187,637 (42.82%)
LD: 962,954 (34.72%)
Lab: 426,910 (15.39%)
UKIP: 123,975 (4.47%)
Greens: 31,517 (1.14%)
Other: 40,450 (1.46%)
TOTAL: 2,773,443
West Midlands region:
2015:
Con: 1,098,110 (41.77%)
Lab: 865,075 (32.91%)
UKIP: 412,770 (15.70%)
LD: 145,009 (5.52%)
Greens: 85,653 (3.26%)
Others: 22,322 (0.85%)
TOTAL: 2,628,939
2010:
Con: 1,044,081 (39.54%)
Lab: 808,114 (30.60%)
LD: 540,160 (20.46%)
UKIP: 105,685 (4.00%)
Greens: 14,996 (0.57%)
TOTAL: 2,640,465
East Midlands region:
2015:
Con: 969,379 (43.46%)
Lab: 705,787 (31.64%)
UKIP: 351,777 (15.77%)
LD: 124,039 (5.56%)
Greens: 66,239 (2.97%)
Others: 13,201 (0.59%)
TOTAL: 2,230,422
2010:
Con: 915,933 (41.18%)
Lab: 661,813 (29.76%)
LD: 462,988 (20.82%)
UKIP: 72,659 (3.27%)
Greens: 11,667 (0.52%)
Others: 99,083 (4.45%)
TOTAL: 2,224,143
North East region:
2015:
Lab: 557,100 (46.89%)
Con: 300,943 (25.33%)
UKIP: 198,823 (16.73%)
LD: 77,095 (6.49%)
Greens: 43,051 (3.62%)
Others: 11,201 (0.94%)
TOTAL: 1,188,213
2010:
Lab: 518,261 (43.55%)
Con: 282,347 (23.73%)
LD: 280,468 (23.57%)
UKIP: 32,196 (2.72%)
Greens: 3,787 (0.32%)
Others: 72,864 (6.12%)
TOTAL: 1,189,923
Say what you like about Tony Blair (and I'd agree with most of it) but he did wonders in Northern Ireland - where I spent 3 of my school years.
Greater London:
2015:
Lab: 1,545,080 (43.69%)
Con: 1,233,386 (34.88%)
UKIP: 286,946 (8.11%)
LD: 272,544 (7.71%)
Greens: 171,652 (4.85%)
Others: 26,622 (0.75%)
TOTAL: 3,536,230
2010:
Lab: 1,245,637 (36.62%)
Con: 1,174,588 (34.53%)
LD: 751,561 (22.10%)
UKIP: 59,452 (1.75%)
Greens: 54,316 (1.60%)
Others: 115,783 (3.40%)
TOTAL: 3,401,317
I think that's all nine England regions!
(note to self- Make my own copy of Andy's data this time!)
Taking the votes of 4m people with it.
Pathetic.
@anntreneman: Pete wishart of snp fame sitting on labour front bench and refusing to move. Isn't it all just so grown up?
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fa11.htm
'predicted that a ‘no’ vote in next year’s independence referendum could be a “springboard” for them to improve on their tally of only one Scottish MP in the 2015 general election.'
http://tinyurl.com/nkehc7h
'Richard Keen claims the Conservatives can be the main beneficiaries from a collapse in support for the SNP in the wake of 'no' vote in the independence referendum
The Conservatives will have the most MSPs and win power at Holyrood within a decade following a collapse in support for the “toxic” Nationalists, the Tories’ new Scottish chairman has predicted.'
http://tinyurl.com/pwvknzn
But now they have to go and visit the Lords again...
UK-wide Con + UKIP = 50.9% of MPs
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond/jim-murphy-was-part-of-the-problem-not-the-solution-1.876053
Another interesting article in the NS:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-problems-scotland-go-well-beyond-jim-murphy
The writer is a Labour NEC member and indicates that the NEC were well aware of SLAB's problems and chose to do nothing.
Just glanced at the last thread. Shocking stats on pancreatic cancer, and I'm sorry to hear, Mr. Notme, of how horrendous pancreatitis[sp] was.
Edited extra bit: my knowledge of Northern Ireland isn't great, but it will be interesting to see whether there is an official opposition next time.
I clearly should have subbed this closer myself as it looks a bit rough. Can TSE tidy it up. After 'the dominant' should be unionist party!
I must declare an interest, I'm heading to Tom Elliott's celebration bash this week!
Thank you for the kind comments all.
The Ukip vote is interesting. They seem to be the mainland party which is getting traction. This is helped by David McNarry, a former UUP man. The NI Conservatives have also had a small upturn in their electoral fortunes. I SUSPECT that the UUP being seen to make progress will persuade some voters of the NI Cons and Ukip to go back to the UUP. I am obviously the kind of person who would consider voting NI Con if I thought UUP were done. I am currently debating with myself and my wife whether I should join her in the UUP or add my weight to the very small band of NI Cons.
When Tom Elliott was removed as leader, it really did look like an existential crisis for the UUP. Basil McCrea set up NI21, which has proved to be something of a disaster, others left. But Mike Nesbitt has done a fantastic job of rebuilding and he will hope that the election of such a different pair of MPs as Danny and Tom will prove that the UUP can be a broad unionist party which can also appeal to those nationalists who want to remove a sitting DUP person.
The situation with the Tories and Ukip is more interesting in the eastern constituencies which are much more unionist. They have chances of gaining say the sixth seat in places like Strangford. In a constituency like F&ST with very even electorates, it is generally seen as the safe bet to just run your STV down the list of UUP/DUP or SDLP/SF. I don't expect any minor party to win a seat in my own constituency, even if I decided to stand myself for the Tories!
@SunPolitics: Jobless Ed Balls gets shirty after a trip to the dry cleaners http://t.co/pbdKthQXlm http://t.co/mm5TfUlgXN
Now Shadow Cabinet's turn
:insert cutting political satire here:
SNP 71 (+2)
SLAB 25 (-12)
Tories 11 (-4)
LibDem 6 (+1)
Greens 11 (+9)
UKIP 5 (+5)
Total Seats 129 (65 for a majority)
As the Scotland Votes seat calculator currently doesn't take account of regional splits, the above figures area at best a guide of likely trends based on current polling. Links below:
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Final-Record-April-Tables.pdf
Hopefully the Daily Record will keep the monthly Survation poll going so we can keep an eye on any trends.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32793389
but it may be just a way not to respect the queue