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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What are the chances the Labour Party are dead?

    Btw Chuka over done it with the 'trying not to be slick' home video... Soooooo transparent
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And finally from Lord A - nice to see that he's remembered that he was once a Tory - I thought he'd forgotten and joined the LDs for a while there.
    In other words, the Conservatives need no longer be described as the party for the few. The Conservative Party can be – indeed, already is – the party for people who are optimistic, open-minded and self-reliant. And now it has an unexpected opportunity to prove that this is the case – and to connect with those who still think the Tories are not for people like them.

    Not only that, it seems to have the intention of doing so. David Cameron promised on the steps of Number Ten to govern “as a party of one nation, one United Kingdom”, and to ensure the recovery “reaches all parts of our country, from north to south, to east to west”.

    If he can deliver on that we will have a Conservative Party that not only will people vote for, they won’t be shy of saying so. At that point, the future of the Conservative Party will be assured.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Plato said:

    Wow - if ever a bar chart showed the difference between Labour and Tory voters

    image

    Lazy people deserve to starve - agree or disagree?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    What are the chances the Labour Party are dead?

    Btw Chuka over done it with the 'trying not to be slick' home video... Soooooo transparent

    Slim. After long enough in exile a Tony Blair figure with a grasp of reality will take over. Unless they get displaced in England but I don't see who can do that.

    Ironically if the Tories had won a majority last time then we could have been talking this week about how Clegg had led the Lib Dems towards being the official opposition.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Freggles said:

    Plato said:

    Wow - if ever a bar chart showed the difference between Labour and Tory voters

    image

    Lazy people deserve to starve - agree or disagree?
    So your response to that chart is to offer a complete non-sequitur? Well played.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Where Con MP stood down after 1 term

    Cannock Chase: maj up from 7 to 10.4%
    North Warwickshire: maj up from 0.1 to 6.3%
    Erewash: maj up from 5.2 to 7.4%
    Cardiff North: maj up from 0.4 to 4.2%
    Dudley South: maj up from 10.1 to 11.2%
    South Ribble: maj up from 10.8 to 11.4%

    Hove: from 3.7% Con maj to 2.4% Lab maj

    Apart from Hove, in the remaining seats Conservative performance wasn't negatively affected.

    I know part of the first term incumbency effect is not only new MPs developing a personal vote, but also the previous incumbent party losing the structural advantage (no MP office, no paid staff, etc).
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    John_M said:

    Freggles said:

    Plato said:

    Wow - if ever a bar chart showed the difference between Labour and Tory voters

    image

    Lazy people deserve to starve - agree or disagree?
    So your response to that chart is to offer a complete non-sequitur? Well played.
    The first statement is a statement of policy. It's clear about what the government should do.

    The second is a gripe with no clear policy implication.

    If the individual doesn't discharge their responsibility to look after themselves, what do you do? Let them starve?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    With the SNP so strong in Scotland and the size of swings required for Labour to pull back enough seats nationally/in SE, E and SW - I just can't see Labour forming the next HMG unless something appalling happens to the Tories before GE2020.

    Just the maths alone is a huge handicap.

    isam said:

    What are the chances the Labour Party are dead?

    Btw Chuka over done it with the 'trying not to be slick' home video... Soooooo transparent

    Slim. After long enough in exile a Tony Blair figure with a grasp of reality will take over. Unless they get displaced in England but I don't see who can do that.

    Ironically if the Tories had won a majority last time then we could have been talking this week about how Clegg had led the Lib Dems towards being the official opposition.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    hucks67 said:


    For example Cameron wants to remove the UK from ECHR and instead have UK courts reviewing Human Rights under a UK bill of rights. Being a member of ECHR is a requirement of all EU member states and this will not be something than can be negotiated away. What happens then ? Will Michael Gove still try to get a UK bill of rights through parliament ? I think it is very unlikely that both Houses of Parliament will vote in favour of such a bill, if it tries to sideline the ECHR. If the Tories cannot get this bill through parliament, then I am not sure where the Tories will be. They will have many Tory backbenchers and Lords deeply unhappy.

    The solution is to pass a weird fudge that doesn't make sense, but sort-of turns European rights into British rights, and sort-of makes some claim about the relationship with the Strasbourg court that doesn't mean much in practice. This is what Grayling proposed and it'll worry a few lawyerly types, but it won't particularly exercise the voters of Nuneaton.
    i'm not sure you really have the finger on the pulse of Nuneaton all the way over in Japan...
    You're probably right.

    But what I'm suggesting is that swing voters won't end up knowing much more about the detail of this than
    1) The government did something to reduce European human rights and bring in some new British rights.
    2) Euro-sceptics didn't think it went far enough.

    Anybody disagree?
    What people will be interested in is whether some terrorist in benefits or rapist or murderer who is not a British citizen can be deported rather than be able to claim that he has a human right to live in this country.

    They'll be able to say, truthfully, that under the new law you can't block deportation because you have a cat.
    People who have committed serious crimes or are a threat to us should be deported. It is an absurdity to say that there is a human right to threaten us or that we should be obliged - against our wishes - to provide a home to those who have come here and broken our laws.

    If they've committed serious crimes and they're still a threat then they should be in prison.
    People are imprisoned for crimes they have committed not for crimes they may do. But at the end of their sentence they should be deported.



  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:

    Even though Union support is melting away by the day, Murphy & Co seem intent on not resigning.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-faces-potentially-fatal-blow-as-unison-considers-calling-for-resig.125764106

    I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.

    If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!

    Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
    The problem with the Tories becoming the main opposition to the SNP is that other than their core 15% vote, everyone else finds them completely toxic. Demographically the Tory vote is also dying out, this is Thatcher's legacy.

    Re SLAB even David Clegg their MSM cheerleader in chief is despairing at their refusal to face reality and clear out the McMurphy crew, who even now carpet bomb Twitter with disparaging tweets about the SNP and Scotland. These guys seem to have no pride in their own nation, best tweet I saw was John McTeirnan encouraging Tory voters to vote LibDem in the Highlands.

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/598084933303799808
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Ashcroft says his polls still identified the winner in 7/10 English and Welsh seats and 25/29 Scottish seats
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/reflections-on-the-election-polls-and-creating-a-conservative-party-people-need-not-be-shy-about-supporting/
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Patrick said:

    Anyone been reading comments threads across the blogosphere just lately? There seems to be a broad and huge rash of 'lefties are nasty and intolerant' articles as the wailing and gnashing launches into top gear. Even the Grauniad is today replete with such stuff. Has this election result finally popped the lefty moral superiority bubble? Probably not - but I think it has popped the 'we mustn't call bullshit when we see it' bubble re the same. I think the 'I'm a lefty therefore I'm right, moral and better than you' meme just caught a virus. Well done Ed!

    Guardian comments are often filled with vicious lefty comments. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Freggles, the corresponding perspective is that a man who chooses to do nothing should be fed at the expense of those who do work.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzijOEHcFxk
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Freggles Lazy people should realise that they can eat well if they just stop being lazy.That is how the rest of us do it..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Mr Cameron promised to implement “all” of the Conservative election manifesto backed by voters last week, adding that there would be “no trading away” of promises.
    Cameron allows filming of first Cabinet in 18yrs http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11599405/David-Cameron-lets-cameras-record-first-Tory-Cabinet-for-18-years.html
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Rory Stewart becomes Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Defra.

    I know he is in a rural constituency. But we have the rise of Islamic terrorism, civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc.....A man who really understands a lot of the drivers underneath this, they have put to talk about sheep dips.

    Sheep dips are important in Cumbria.

    We can do nothing about Iraq and Syria and the sorts of things that ought to be done to counter Islamist extremism at home can be done by Gove, May and the Education department.

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Chuka has called Ukip racist hasn't he?

    Well it worked for Dave!

    That may have helped detoxify the Tories. But Labour need some of those UKIP voters to vote Labour. Calling them names won't help.

    Indeed Labour have to get out of the habit of using insults as a substitute for argument and debate.

    Anecdote

    4-5 years ago I studied humanities at Brighton uni as a mature student. During one seminar a tutor used a guardian article as evidence for one of her left wing claims. This was obviously considered ok.

    Later in the discussion I disagreed with her on something and she said 'ugh you sound just like a daily mail reader'

    Bearing in mind this was a course in critical thinking, where acceptance of dogma and blind faith were the enemy, I thought it was quite revealing and literally laughed in her face. But this was typical of the mindset (appropriate description) of the staff there (who to be fair were more swp hope not hate and green than labour)

    Morally superior because they're left wing... A hard habit to break
    Yes - I dislike people like that too. There are people who have "received opinions" and simply cannot or won't think for themselves.

    It's worse than that. These are people for whom their politics is an extension of their identity and what sort of person they think they are. They have not thought deeply about their beliefs because to do so would call into question their own identity, which they are very insecure about.

    So rather than have their views and opinions challenged, they shut out dissenting voices and abuse them, just like Rebecca Roache, because it helps them anchor that security in an uncertain and changing world.
    Yes - one reason why identity politics and all this safe space nonsense (being safe from ideas that might challenge you, I ask you!) is bollocks on stilts. It's a comfort blanket for those with a fundamentally insecure, brittle and adolescent cast of mind.


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    Freggles said:

    John_M said:

    Freggles said:

    Plato said:

    Wow - if ever a bar chart showed the difference between Labour and Tory voters

    image

    Lazy people deserve to starve - agree or disagree?
    So your response to that chart is to offer a complete non-sequitur? Well played.
    The first statement is a statement of policy. It's clear about what the government should do.

    The second is a gripe with no clear policy implication.

    If the individual doesn't discharge their responsibility to look after themselves, what do you do? Let them starve?
    You don't let them starve. You help them get back on their feet so that they can start taking responsibility for themselves again - or for the first time.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Plato said:

    Wow - if ever a bar chart showed the difference between Labour and Tory voters

    image

    Just to add to the hysteria, may I suggest that perhaps they should take a poll as to whether people believe polls. This would be getting into a sort of quantum measurement problem wherein making observations can disturb the state of the system.
    Irony intended.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Can you please stop confusing the SNP, a political party with Scotland. They don't speak for me or many other voters who are Scottish and live in Scotland.
    calum said:

    calum said:

    Even though Union support is melting away by the day, Murphy & Co seem intent on not resigning.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-faces-potentially-fatal-blow-as-unison-considers-calling-for-resig.125764106

    I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.

    If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!

    Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
    The problem with the Tories becoming the main opposition to the SNP is that other than their core 15% vote, everyone else finds them completely toxic. Demographically the Tory vote is also dying out, this is Thatcher's legacy.

    Re SLAB even David Clegg their MSM cheerleader in chief is despairing at their refusal to face reality and clear out the McMurphy crew, who even now carpet bomb Twitter with disparaging tweets about the SNP and Scotland. These guys seem to have no pride in their own nation, best tweet I saw was John McTeirnan encouraging Tory voters to vote LibDem in the Highlands.

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/598084933303799808
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    Rory Stewart becomes Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Defra.

    I know he is in a rural constituency. But we have the rise of Islamic terrorism, civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc.....A man who really understands a lot of the drivers underneath this, they have put to talk about sheep dips.

    Sheep dips are important in Cumbria.

    We can do nothing about Iraq and Syria and the sorts of things that ought to be done to counter Islamist extremism at home can be done by Gove, May and the Education department.

    The man is wasted on sheep dips. How many people have we got in government who have direct experience of dealing with the kinda of tribal systems that underpin a lot of the issues in Iraq. ISIS can only be defeated with the help of the tribal groups.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    JEO said:

    Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.


    Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.

    They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.

    David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.

    http://bit.ly/1FaCvdc

    Civil liberties issues without a European dimension could be tricky for Labour - they traditionally agree with Theresa May, but are they going to let themselves be seen supporting the government while the SNP opposes?
    Civil liberties seems to be the sort of thing that Labour can use to show it has changed as a party, but not in a way that sends them back to the days of Blair. I wouldn't be surprised if a few leadership challengers come out to oppose the new charter.

    Labour's record on civil liberties when in government was appalling. Nothing they've said since 2010 suggests that they've learnt any lessons on that topic.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RupertMyers: Apparently Andy Burnham has already announced his candidacy by texting in to Ceefax from a disused Woolworths in Merthyr Tydfil
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft says his polls still identified the winner in 7/10 English and Welsh seats and 25/29 Scottish seats
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/reflections-on-the-election-polls-and-creating-a-conservative-party-people-need-not-be-shy-about-supporting/

    Problem with that is most of us could have predicted those numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JEO said:

    Does anyone know what the status of human rights legislation is in Canada, Australia and New Zealand?

    Good question.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft says his polls still identified the winner in 7/10 English and Welsh seats and 25/29 Scottish seats
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/reflections-on-the-election-polls-and-creating-a-conservative-party-people-need-not-be-shy-about-supporting/

    Problem with that is most of us could have predicted those numbers.
    Yeah, the question is would you have made money betting with his polls. OR more importantly would you have made money betting with his polls outside Scotland.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    Rory Stewart becomes Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Defra.

    I know he is in a rural constituency. But we have the rise of Islamic terrorism, civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc.....A man who really understands a lot of the drivers underneath this, they have put to talk about sheep dips.

    Sheep dips are important in Cumbria.

    We can do nothing about Iraq and Syria and the sorts of things that ought to be done to counter Islamist extremism at home can be done by Gove, May and the Education department.

    The man is wasted on sheep dips. How many people have we got in government who have direct experience of dealing with the kinda of tribal systems that underpin a lot of the issues in Iraq. ISIS can only be defeated with the help of the tribal groups.
    Fair point. We're not really involved in defeating ISIS though, are we? And one would like to hope that there is some relevant experience / knowledge somewhere in government or the civil service?

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    fitalass said:

    Can you please stop confusing the SNP, a political party with Scotland. They don't speak for me or many other voters who are Scottish and live in Scotland.

    calum said:

    calum said:

    Even though Union support is melting away by the day, Murphy & Co seem intent on not resigning.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-faces-potentially-fatal-blow-as-unison-considers-calling-for-resig.125764106

    I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.

    If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!

    Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
    The problem with the Tories becoming the main opposition to the SNP is that other than their core 15% vote, everyone else finds them completely toxic. Demographically the Tory vote is also dying out, this is Thatcher's legacy.

    Re SLAB even David Clegg their MSM cheerleader in chief is despairing at their refusal to face reality and clear out the McMurphy crew, who even now carpet bomb Twitter with disparaging tweets about the SNP and Scotland. These guys seem to have no pride in their own nation, best tweet I saw was John McTeirnan encouraging Tory voters to vote LibDem in the Highlands.

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/598084933303799808
    I'm afraid the UK politicians and MSM stopped making a distinction between denigrating the SNP and Scotland about a year ago. Even in recent days we had Boris and Jockestan, Kelvin MacKenzie and repatriating the Mcboat people from London, constant bile from Katie Hopkins, constant "there be monsters up north" articles in the MSM etc etc
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    O/T - Proof positive that Dave lurks at pb.

    He's just acted on my plea yesterday and appointed Dom Raab as PUSS at Justice.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2015
    @madasafish

    'Her message was targetted specifically – at NHS staff and the poor. who account for less than half the electorate.'

    In reality about 22% of the electorate was targeted by Labour, 10% Poor, 10% NHS workers and 2% hatred of the super rich.

    The other 78% of the electorate was basically ignored.
This discussion has been closed.