And I wonder if the two Ulster Unionists will take the Tory whip which would increase the majority to 20.
I don't think they will take the whip, but in practice on many of the bills which the SNP (who seem to think they are the official opposition!) would want to sabotage, the Ulster Unionists are likely to vote with the government. Also on some issues, Douglas Carswell will vote with the government. Given the fact that the opposition is split and Labour's bloc is relatively small, I don't think the small majority is too much of a problem at the moment. Of course, by-elections could fairly quickly change that.
@BBCNormanS: New Govt anti strike laws will make strikes "close to impossible" - TUC
The whole argument frustrates me. The problem isn't really the number of strikes, it's a handful of strikes which have a dramatic impact on the public. But the government isn't going to pivot towards that sort of criterion.
Has anybody heard what the TPD is doing now? We know Ed's off clubbing, but I'd love to know how Reckless is licking his wounds.
Just so I can laugh.
I don't think it's very nice to take joy in other people's suffering. I can understand when it's someone like George Galloway, who stirred up racial tension to benefit from it, but what has Reckless done? As far as I can see he left our party, risking his seat, because he did not agree with the ideological direction we had taken. While I don't agree with that choice, I wish we had more principled people in politics.
There's a reason Carswell is far more respected by his ex-party than Reckless. Carswell deliberately timed his jump to be away from the Conference season because he's a decent person. Reckless lied about his intentions and then tried to cause maximum damage to the Conservatives by deliberately jumping at Conference time.
As someone who went to Conference, there was a great deal of ill will to Reckless regarding this that wasn't felt in the same way to Carswell.
And I wonder if the two Ulster Unionists will take the Tory whip which would increase the majority to 20.
I don't think they will take the whip, but in practice on many of the bills which the SNP (who seem to think they are the official opposition!) would want to sabotage, the Ulster Unionists are likely to vote with the government. Also on some issues, Douglas Carswell will vote with the government. Given the fact that the opposition is split and Labour's bloc is relatively small, I don't think the small majority is too much of a problem at the moment. Of course, by-elections could fairly quickly change that.
Personally I think what the Tories need to avoid is a "pasty tax" moment. For me the "pasty tax" merely hastened an otherwise quiet Tory decline, which was inevitable. Cameron just needs to avoid hastening his party's decline into infighting for long enough to get things done.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
I'm think we should seriously consider banning opinion polling. It probably didn't make much difference but there's no getting away from the fact that the state of the GB polls was, theoretically, good for the Tories.
I really wish that we would move away from this idea that the correct response to something we don't like is to ban it. Banning is for those matters where real harm would otherwise be caused. A few wrong opinion polls cause no real harm to anyone other than, perhaps, the amour propre of the pollsters themselves (and, possibly, a few peoples' wallets.......)
@stephentall: NEW BLOG: Last Thursday, "there was a larger Lib Dem vote movement to Conservatives than to Labour" http://t.co/lrkoqJKQOM
Firewall.
What skewed perceptions most were the LD-Con Ashcroft marginal polls. They gave the false impression of Lib Dem resilience when much derided UNS would have done a far far better job.
I am very much looking forward to reading the good Lord's own post-mortem.
Polls are a snapshot not a prediction. That's what he'll say
A snapshot huh? Still doesn't explain why the lens cap was on....
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Lib dems just got hammered in the locals too. The question is how 'toxic' the lib dem brand is.
Its possible, but it'll take a hell of a lot of work, time and energy, and how much activists can do.
@BBCNormanS: New Govt anti strike laws will make strikes "close to impossible" - TUC
Huzzah.
Strikers should also be forced to recompense their employers for any loss of business during strikes.
This government isn't right wing enough.
I think it is already obvious that Cameron intends his party to do a Blair and govern from and dominate the centre ground. There will be the odd bit of red meat like harassing the BBC, fairly insignificant changes to Employment law and winding up the HR lobby (hence the relevant appointments) but he will govern from the centre.
Will this have the same effect as it had on the Tories of pushing Labour further to the extremes? Time will tell but it certainly won't make their task any easier.
And I wonder if the two Ulster Unionists will take the Tory whip which would increase the majority to 20.
I don't think they will take the whip, but in practice on many of the bills which the SNP (who seem to think they are the official opposition!) would want to sabotage, the Ulster Unionists are likely to vote with the government. Also on some issues, Douglas Carswell will vote with the government. Given the fact that the opposition is split and Labour's bloc is relatively small, I don't think the small majority is too much of a problem at the moment. Of course, by-elections could fairly quickly change that.
Personally I think what the Tories need to avoid is a "pasty tax" moment. For me the "pasty tax" merely hastened an otherwise quiet Tory decline, which was inevitable. Cameron just needs to avoid hastening his party's decline into infighting for long enough to get things done.
What decline?
Governments get people upset with them during mid-term. As Terry Pratchett said "It's not worth doing something unless someone, somewhere, would much rather you weren't doing it"
Judge a government on election results after five years not on mid-term protest polls.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
'With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.'
I would have thought their main priority would be to try and hang onto the 8 seats they have as several of those are now marginal.
@stephentall: NEW BLOG: Last Thursday, "there was a larger Lib Dem vote movement to Conservatives than to Labour" http://t.co/lrkoqJKQOM
Firewall.
What skewed perceptions most were the LD-Con Ashcroft marginal polls. They gave the false impression of Lib Dem resilience when much derided UNS would have done a far far better job.
I am very much looking forward to reading the good Lord's own post-mortem.
Polls are a snapshot not a prediction. That's what he'll say
A snapshot huh? Still doesn't explain why the lens cap was on....
Ashcroft was one of those photographers who always chops peoples heads off. I had an aunty who was notorious for that. Big family joke - well it was when you were 12.
Has anybody heard what the TPD is doing now? We know Ed's off clubbing, but I'd love to know how Reckless is licking his wounds.
Just so I can laugh.
I don't think it's very nice to take joy in other people's suffering. I can understand when it's someone like George Galloway, who stirred up racial tension to benefit from it, but what has Reckless done? As far as I can see he left our party, risking his seat, because he did not agree with the ideological direction we had taken. While I don't agree with that choice, I wish we had more principled people in politics.
Firstly, it's not 'our' party: I'm not a member of any political party, and not particularly a supporter of any of them. I supported the coalition, and quite like David Cameron (although I think I'm going to have less opportunity to defend him against the 'lucky general' calls people used to make).
I nearly voted Lib Dem at the GE (and would have been one of the few poor, deluded people to do so had my Lib Dem candidate not proved himself unable to spell on a leaflet), and I voted Labour in the locals as he was the best of the bunch.
As for Reckless: it is his entire manner. My only knowledge of him before he went over to UKIP was from his presence on the Home Affairs Select Committee, where he royally pi**ed me off on a couple of occasions with the way he questioned people. The way he moved over to UKIP, and some of the things he said afterwards, only concreted my opinion.
And I'm not sure his move was anything to do with principle.
I'm think we should seriously consider banning opinion polling. It probably didn't make much difference but there's no getting away from the fact that the state of the GB polls was, theoretically, good for the Tories.
I really wish that we would move away from this idea that the correct response to something we don't like is to ban it. Banning is for those matters where real harm would otherwise be caused. A few wrong opinion polls cause no real harm to anyone other than, perhaps, the amour propre of the pollsters themselves (and, possibly, a few peoples' wallets.......)
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Lib dems just got hammered in the locals too. The question is how 'toxic' the lib dem brand is.
Its possible, but it'll take a hell of a lot of work, time and energy, and how much activists can do.
All good things take work. It's been done before, it can be done again. They need fresh blood so that should be the immediate priority. So a rebrand, dump the barnacles and add some popular stuff should be the priority.
They should also informally align with Labour. When Labour do well, so do the LDs.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
What is catastrophic for the LitDems is that in one night, 25 or more years of by-election gains were wiped out.
It doesn't seem so long ago that they were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a by-election in Henley. Truth is, short of the delayed pain of Eastleigh being saved in the last Parliament, it has been quite some while since their fabled by-election machine has done the business. It will be interesting to see if they can even hold any of their deposits in the by-elections this Parliament.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Apparently the LibDems have had over 8,000 new members join since the election. Labour also getting a boost.
BTW, Hodges had a good election (UKIP notwithstanding). Many people owe him an apology.
Hodges was right but in a stopped clock kind of way. Every event, every development was a disaster for Ed Miliband; there was no nuance, no real analysis.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
I do hope we don't go down the Joseph McCarthy route of calling anyone that disagrees with government policy on the issue a terrorist sympathiser.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Has anybody heard what the TPD is doing now? We know Ed's off clubbing, but I'd love to know how Reckless is licking his wounds.
Just so I can laugh.
I don't think it's very nice to take joy in other people's suffering. I can understand when it's someone like George Galloway, who stirred up racial tension to benefit from it, but what has Reckless done? As far as I can see he left our party, risking his seat, because he did not agree with the ideological direction we had taken. While I don't agree with that choice, I wish we had more principled people in politics.
Firstly, it's not 'our' party: I'm not a member of any political party, and not particularly a supporter of any of them. I supported the coalition, and quite like David Cameron (although I think I'm going to have less opportunity to defend him against the 'lucky general' calls people used to make).
I nearly voted Lib Dem at the GE (and would have been one of the few poor, deluded people to do so had my Lib Dem candidate not proved himself unable to spell on a leaflet), and I voted Labour in the locals as he was the best of the bunch.
As for Reckless: it is his entire manner. My only knowledge of him before he went over to UKIP was from his presence on the Home Affairs Select Committee, where he royally pi**ed me off on a couple of occasions with the way he questioned people. The way he moved over to UKIP, and some of the things he said afterwards, only concreted my opinion.
And I'm not sure his move was anything to do with principle.
Good riddance to him.
What were the things he said on the Select Committee or after joining UKIP that 'royally pi**ed' you off?
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Lib dems just got hammered in the locals too. The question is how 'toxic' the lib dem brand is.
Its possible, but it'll take a hell of a lot of work, time and energy, and how much activists can do.
All good things take work. It's been done before, it can be done again. They need fresh blood so that should be the immediate priority. So a rebrand, dump the barnacles and add some popular stuff should be the priority.
They should also informally align with Labour. When Labour do well, so do the LDs.
Lots of opportunities in the next parliament.
Whilst I don't agree about any alliance with Labour I do believe that if Labour had been in a stronger position the Libs would have performed significantly better. Ed probably cost them several seats in the South West where people frightened of a Labour government voted for a safer option.
With Rory Stewart's departure from the MOD, that's a NAVY GAIN.
Its a plausible military strategy to base our defence around the Navy when we have inherited these two aircraft carriers. A relatively small army will actually preclude any dubious military adventures. We can still offer physical and moral support from the air and from special forces. We should develop our special and elite forces to be the cornerstone of our army. This would mean only being able to sustain relatively small forces in operations but they would be a force multiplier whilst other nations (local troops?) formed the main back up.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
The ECHR doesn't do a good job of LGBT rights either, or indeed discrimination in general.
On the polling, there is a philosophical question which needs to be considered: are opinion polls supposed to be what they purport to be (i.e. asking people how they will vote), or are they supposed to be statistical models which attempt to predict how people will vote based on the answers they give to questions the pollsters ask?
The early (pre-1992) polls were effectively the former; pollsters tried to get a representative sample, asked the voting intention question, and reported the answer. The famous 'shy Tories' adjustment which was brought in after 1992 by ICM, and other adjustments made by other pollsters, take polls more towards the latter. However, these adjustments are necessarily somewhat arbitrary: they are introducing behavioural predictions into what purports to be a survey asking people how they will vote.
My own view is that it is best to keep a clear distinction between the straightforward snapshot polling, and the modelling of likely behaviour (and thus of the final result) which you can carry out using the opinion polling as one of the inputs. Other inputs would be likely to include leader ratings, economic factors, and so on. I fear that we may end up with pollsters muddling the two even more than they currently do.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
The US Bill of Rights also bans unreasonable searches, which has caused several judges to rule against the NSA. It's altogether a much better document than the European equivalent.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
What is catastrophic for the LitDems is that in one night, 25 or more years of by-election gains were wiped out.
It doesn't seem so long ago that they were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a by-election in Henley. Truth is, short of the delayed pain of Eastleigh being saved in the last Parliament, it has been quite some while since their fabled by-election machine has done the business. It will be interesting to see if they can even hold any of their deposits in the by-elections this Parliament.
They won the Newbury by-election in 1993 by ~22K votes
They easily held Newbury in 1997 by 8,500, and held it again in 2001.
Tories won Newbury last week by 26,368. Double the 1983 majority
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Lib dems just got hammered in the locals too. The question is how 'toxic' the lib dem brand is.
Its possible, but it'll take a hell of a lot of work, time and energy, and how much activists can do.
All good things take work. It's been done before, it can be done again. They need fresh blood so that should be the immediate priority. So a rebrand, dump the barnacles and add some popular stuff should be the priority.
They should also informally align with Labour. When Labour do well, so do the LDs.
Lots of opportunities in the next parliament.
Whilst I don't agree about any alliance with Labour I do believe that if Labour had been in a stronger position the Libs would have performed significantly better. Ed probably cost them several seats in the South West where people frightened of a Labour government voted for a safer option.
Certainly not an alliance, but move from the futility of bashing each towards a mutually beneficial agenda. There are some basic facts both parties would do well to remember, even with Blair at his peak the LDs have been able to win where Labour never could. And vice versa BTW.
On the polling, there is a philosophical question which needs to be considered: are opinion polls supposed to be what they purport to be (i.e. asking people how they will vote), or are they supposed to be statistical models which attempt to predict how people will vote based on the answers they give to questions the pollsters ask?
The early (pre-1992) polls were effectively the former; pollsters tried to get a representative sample, asked the voting intention question, and reported the answer. The famous 'shy Tories' adjustment which was brought in after 1992 by ICM, and other adjustments made by other pollsters, take polls more towards the latter. However, these adjustments are necessarily somewhat arbitrary: they are introducing behavioural predictions into what purports to be a survey asking people how they will vote.
My own view is that it is best to keep a clear distinction between the straightforward snapshot polling, and the modelling of likely behaviour (and thus of the final result) which you can carry out using the opinion polling as one of the inputs. Other inputs would be likely to include leader ratings, economic factors, and so on. I fear that we may end up with pollsters muddling the two even more than they currently do.
Yes, interesting points. But when we start talking about 'statistical modelling'...well...
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I think that process is well under way, seeing as "stopping the Tories" seemed to be SLAB's only message, now the de facto vote to "stop the Tories" is the SNP - SLAB will become an irrelevance. The Scot Cons have a point, and role.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I suspect it will gradually come to that. The Scottish right currently consisting of Tories, SNP righties ( that means you malcolm ! ) and RoC Libdems won't go on forever without a voice.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
I think this is true. The thread has been broken in seats like Twickenham, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Berwick-upon-Tweed, and of the course the SW constituencies. A lot of these will now become safe Conservative seats. With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
The Lib Dems should choose as leader whoever is prepared to accept immediately that the hard work of two generations has been destroyed, and that a whole new way is required to build a new party.
Like labout and the SNP, there's no easy or quick way back to get those seats, if they even can.
Thing about Scotland, why would you vote labour now? There's no risk in voting SNP, as you know the SNP can always work with labour to kick the tories out if the maths allow.
The LDs have a working formula. Win the council and then win the seat. It ain't quick, but it works. The Blues are not immune from mid term blues. So there will be opportunities in the next parliament.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
Apparently the LibDems have had over 8,000 new members join since the election. Labour also getting a boost.
That's like people coming to a funeral who hadn't seen the dead person for years. So what - turn up earlier if you want anybody to care
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I think that process is well under way, seeing as "stopping the Tories" seemed to be SLAB's only message, now the de facto vote to "stop the Tories" is the SNP - SLAB will become an irrelevance. The Scot Cons have a point, and role.
That's the bit I never got with SLAB. They have been fighting the wrong enemy for the last 3 elections, were they really that stupid ?
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
The US Bill of Rights also bans unreasonable searches, which has caused several judges to rule against the NSA. It's altogether a much better document than the European equivalent.
And if we copied it we would be going back to our own English radical roots: Locke, Milton etc. I really hope that we do it.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
Of course a bigoted party fanatic like you does see it that way. The idea that anyone could actually do anything out of principle is utterly alien to you.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
I do hope we don't go down the Joseph McCarthy route of calling anyone that disagrees with government policy on the issue a terrorist sympathiser.
Or smearing people with McCathyism route either. Is the legal ability to tap telephones a 'snoopers charter' ? When we see proposals (ie the 'bedroom tax') deliberately misnamed, then how are we to judge them? Lets hope we do not go down the New Speak route.
Pretty tough challenge for the pollsters. If I were trying to fix this, I'd be worried about four things.
1/ Is it safe to presume that somewhere in my raw data I have, save for the correct processing, the right answer?
2/ Should I expect a poll to foretell the election result at all? Analogously, if you poll football fans at a game at half time and the score's 1-0, what does that tell you about the score at full time, except that it won't be 0-0? Maybe nothing I do with my data can reconcile it to the outcome.
3/ If I do come up with a way of processing the raw data that correctly hindcasts the result, how do I know it's correct for 2020?
4/ Is the correct way to establish public opinion necessarily a poll of public opinion? Rod Crosby came up with a more accurate method of predicting the election outcome that used extrapolation from previous elections, i.e. it did not consider opinion poll data at all.
Ultimately, are pollsters trying to measure or predict something that cannot be predicted or measured? We've seen climate scientists resorting to making the past colder in order to prove that the present is warmer. If an entire academic discipline has to fiddle data to stand up its most basic tenet, is it even safe to presume that opinion polling can work?
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
The US Bill of Rights also bans unreasonable searches, which has caused several judges to rule against the NSA. It's altogether a much better document than the European equivalent.
And if we copied it we would be going back to our own English radical roots: Locke, Milton etc. I really hope that we do it.
It has always seemed odd to me that the British, of all people, have warrants for a Home Office agency provided by the Home Secretary rather than a judge
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I suspect it will gradually come to that. The Scottish right currently consisting of Tories, SNP righties ( that means you malcolm ! ) and RoC Libdems won't go on forever without a voice.
Had the same thought - the LDs have been almost wiped out in Scotland and SLAB cannot compete with the SNP on the left. The natural opposition to the SNP would therefore seem to be the Tories. I can easily see the Tories pick up at least 6-7 seats in Scotland at the next election, especially as they will be seen as the "default" Unionist opposition in many wealthier / rural constituencies that used to be LD.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I think that process is well under way, seeing as "stopping the Tories" seemed to be SLAB's only message, now the de facto vote to "stop the Tories" is the SNP - SLAB will become an irrelevance. The Scot Cons have a point, and role.
That's the bit I never got with SLAB. They have been fighting the wrong enemy for the last 3 elections, were they really that stupid ?
I was so glad Murphy got sent packing, a man who campaigned entirely on outright lies, hypocrisy and #Toriesout whilst quietly trying to persuade them in his own seat to back him. I know alot of politicians are like this, but he really took the cake.
Re the HRA, there was an interesting debate on Newsnight last night about the difficulties of repealing it. One of them - at least according to Philippe Sands - was that it was woven into the Good Friday Agreement in NI and into Scottish devolution legislation.
I don't know enough to comment but I think that untangling it will be harder than Gove thinks not least because so much of the ECHR was written by English lawyers. He would be best trying to deal with some of the bizarre judgments which so infuriate people e.g. people who are not nationals, convicted of some awful crimes, still a threat to people here but somehow still entitled to live here. A rebalancing of the criteria so that where someone is a threat or has committed serious crimes this overrides their right to live here as opposed to their own country would help.
An interestimg point on cabinet ministers is the advance of the cabinet office.
The chief secretary to the treasury is no longer a full cabinet minister, so the chancellor of the exchequer is the only full cabinet minister in the treasury. When was the last time this happened?
It would appear that the cabinet office has two cabinet ministers, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and the Paymaster General (which used to be the no 3 role at the treasury but now is at the cabinet office).
Does this mean that there will be a different central co-ordination of policy given that the quod no longer exists?
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I suspect it will gradually come to that. The Scottish right currently consisting of Tories, SNP righties ( that means you malcolm ! ) and RoC Libdems won't go on forever without a voice.
Had the same thought - the LDs have been almost wiped out in Scotland and SLAB cannot compete with the SNP on the left. The natural opposition to the SNP would therefore seem to be the Tories. I can easily see the Tories pick up at least 6-7 seats in Scotland at the next election, especially as they will be seen as the "default" Unionist opposition in many wealthier / rural constituencies that used to be LD.
Perhaps it requires a bit of flexibility, like the Unionist or Federal party. But could they co-opt Danny boy for a re-launch ?
Whoever is the next Labour leader will have a nightmare of a task -not just fighting the Conservatives, but also battling to keep the unions within Labour (I think McClusky will be tempted to split and fund a new party) and dealing with UKIP in the North. I cannot see either of Hunt or Chukka doing this, Burnham possibly but at the cost of a drubbing at the 2020 election, as he would be seen as a puppet of the unions and Mid-Staffs will be rehashed again and again.
Scottish National Party MPs are already plotting to bring down flagship Conservative legislation by courting Tory backbenchers, The Telegraph can disclose.
Nicola Sturgeon's Westminster MPs want to block the so-called Snoopers' Charter by courting "libertarian" Tories who have previously opposed Theresa May's terrorist surveillance plans.
They also believe they can gather enough cross-party support to kill off Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
David Davis was named as a senior Tory backbencher they could court after he triggered a by-election in 2008 over plans for 42-day detention of terrorist suspects without trial.
The SNP are the official opposition now? Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
The "Snooper's Charter" is always going to be a compromise. It's a question of amendment, not yes or no.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
The main thing that needs to be done is to bump up priority of free speech.
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
Sounds good but you're dreaming if you think the British Conservatives are going to do anything substantial to protect free speech.
Their main goal is going to avoid creating any new rights that people don't already have. Since they apparently plan to stay in the European Convention on Human Rights, this will in practice mean writing something as close as possible to the European Convention on Human Rights, but calling it British instead of European.
If Tory anti-strike laws are seen as too draconian they give all the Labour leadership candidates the scope to oppose them without it doing any damage beyond the Labour party.
@NicoHines: Chuka Umunna announces that he is running to be Labour leader in shaky amateur Facebook video. https://t.co/AQlDfyVUaA Authentic
@paulwaugh: Chuka announcement in Swindon cos determined not to make announcement in Westminster to 'get out of the bubble', supporters say
@MrHarryCole: Chuka really reaching out to England. He's managed an hour on the train to Swindon.
Yeah: an ex-Herbert Smith corporate lawyer whose grandfather was a judge is just the sort of person who will be able to reach out to Labour's missing voters.
I mean I deal with people like him all the time and even I would run a mile in the opposite direction.
An interestimg point on cabinet ministers is the advance of the cabinet office.
The chief secretary to the treasury is no longer a full cabinet minister, so the chancellor of the exchequer is the only full cabinet minister in the treasury. When was the last time this happened?
It would appear that the cabinet office has two cabinet ministers, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and the Paymaster General (which used to be the no 3 role at the treasury but now is at the cabinet office).
Does this mean that there will be a different central co-ordination of policy given that the quod no longer exists?
On a point of order, the PM is first Lord of the Treasury.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I suspect it will gradually come to that. The Scottish right currently consisting of Tories, SNP righties ( that means you malcolm ! ) and RoC Libdems won't go on forever without a voice.
Had the same thought - the LDs have been almost wiped out in Scotland and SLAB cannot compete with the SNP on the left. The natural opposition to the SNP would therefore seem to be the Tories. I can easily see the Tories pick up at least 6-7 seats in Scotland at the next election, especially as they will be seen as the "default" Unionist opposition in many wealthier / rural constituencies that used to be LD.
Perhaps it requires a bit of flexibility, like the Unionist or Federal party. But could they co-opt Danny boy for a re-launch ?
cur nat howls of traitor, wimp, Untermensch etc.
I think the election has wiped out the unique pariah status the Conservatives had i.e. all the "Unionist" parties are tarred with the same brush. FFA will play to the Conservatives in Scotland as they can contrast themselves as the low-tax / less state option to a left-wing SNP.
If the EU referendum causes massive problems within the Tory party, could this lead to an early election ?
No doubt some will think this is unlikely, but what if Cameron backs staying in the EU, even if he could not negotiate the changes he wanted.
For example Cameron wants to remove the UK from ECHR and instead have UK courts reviewing Human Rights under a UK bill of rights. Being a member of ECHR is a requirement of all EU member states and this will not be something than can be negotiated away. What happens then ? Will Michael Gove still try to get a UK bill of rights through parliament ? I think it is very unlikely that both Houses of Parliament will vote in favour of such a bill, if it tries to sideline the ECHR. If the Tories cannot get this bill through parliament, then I am not sure where the Tories will be. They will have many Tory backbenchers and Lords deeply unhappy.
I think the EU will still be the big issue that causes the Tories to lose power again. It splits their party more than it does Labour.
@stephentall: NEW BLOG: Last Thursday, "there was a larger Lib Dem vote movement to Conservatives than to Labour" http://t.co/lrkoqJKQOM
Firewall.
What skewed perceptions most were the LD-Con Ashcroft marginal polls. They gave the false impression of Lib Dem resilience when much derided UNS would have done a far far better job.
Also they didn't see much incumbency. It would be interesting to compare incumbents to non-incumbents and see how much it helped in practice.
My guess is that a lot of the drop in Labour's vote efficiency will come down to double-incumbency, which also helps explain why Labour's vote became more efficient in 2001, before dropping in the next two elections.
Glad to see that Alistair Burt is restored to Government as Minister of State at Health: it was inexplicable why he was fired (at the last reshuffle or the one before) in the first place.
Clean sweep at Communities and Local Government...hope that's a portend of a less abrasive manner to the poor bloody infantry
@stephentall: NEW BLOG: Last Thursday, "there was a larger Lib Dem vote movement to Conservatives than to Labour" http://t.co/lrkoqJKQOM
Firewall.
What skewed perceptions most were the LD-Con Ashcroft marginal polls. They gave the false impression of Lib Dem resilience when much derided UNS would have done a far far better job.
I am very much looking forward to reading the good Lord's own post-mortem.
Polls are a snapshot not a prediction. That's what he'll say
A snapshot huh? Still doesn't explain why the lens cap was on....
Ashcroft was one of those photographers who always chops peoples heads off. I had an aunty who was notorious for that. Big family joke - well it was when you were 12.
When I worked in photography I was once approached by a man who had caught a huge fish, but the resulting photograph was taken at the end of the film, which meant that his head was missing. I was able to amend the result through some dark room trickery (way before the days of Photoshop) much to his satisfaction.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I think that process is well under way, seeing as "stopping the Tories" seemed to be SLAB's only message, now the de facto vote to "stop the Tories" is the SNP - SLAB will become an irrelevance. The Scot Cons have a point, and role.
That's the bit I never got with SLAB. They have been fighting the wrong enemy for the last 3 elections, were they really that stupid ?
SLab have been fighting SNP hard, really hard over the last decade - they've just been fighting on completely the wrong topics.
You've probably heard the phrase "too wee, too poor, too stupid" which is the Nationalist summary of the anti-independence movement. That doesn't come from the rest of the UK, that comes from SLab. It is SLab that put out general election leaflets (2005 if I remember correctly) saying "Break up Britain Scotland goes broke", it is the leader of SLab who goes on TV and says that Scottish people can't make political decisions.
SLab approach to attacking the SNP has been to A) try an attack the current leader - who invariably has sky high net favourable/unfavourable ratings. B ) talk down Scotland.
Whoever is the next Labour leader will have a nightmare of a task -not just fighting the Conservatives, but also battling to keep the unions within Labour (I think McClusky will be tempted to split and fund a new party) and dealing with UKIP in the North. I cannot see either of Hunt or Chukka doing this, Burnham possibly but at the cost of a drubbing at the 2020 election, as he would be seen as a puppet of the unions and Mid-Staffs will be rehashed again and again.
Hunt, Chukka or Burnham will see Labour replacing the 35% strategy with a 35 seat strategy.....
It's 40 years since the reactionary dinosaur Tories elected a female leader. Labour really needs a female leader next to correct this.
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
Best thing for Scotland would be to extinguish SLAB and have SNP vs Tories for the Unionists. A healthy and stable democracy has left v right, not left v left.
I think that process is well under way, seeing as "stopping the Tories" seemed to be SLAB's only message, now the de facto vote to "stop the Tories" is the SNP - SLAB will become an irrelevance. The Scot Cons have a point, and role.
That's the bit I never got with SLAB. They have been fighting the wrong enemy for the last 3 elections, were they really that stupid ?
SLab have been fighting SNP hard, really hard over the last decade - they've just been fighting on completely the wrong topics.
You've probably heard the phrase "too wee, too poor, too stupid" which is the Nationalist summary of the anti-independence movement. That doesn't come from the rest of the UK, that comes from SLab. It is SLab that put out general election leaflets (2005 if I remember correctly) saying "Break up Britain Scotland goes broke", it is the leader of SLab who goes on TV and says that Scottish people can't make political decisions.
SLab approach to attacking the SNP has been to A) try an attack the current leader - who invariably has sky high net favourable/unfavourable ratings. B ) talk down Scotland.
Will Scotland notice that they have powerless irrelevant McShinner MPs over powerless irrelevant Slab MPs ?
For example Cameron wants to remove the UK from ECHR and instead have UK courts reviewing Human Rights under a UK bill of rights. Being a member of ECHR is a requirement of all EU member states and this will not be something than can be negotiated away. What happens then ? Will Michael Gove still try to get a UK bill of rights through parliament ? I think it is very unlikely that both Houses of Parliament will vote in favour of such a bill, if it tries to sideline the ECHR. If the Tories cannot get this bill through parliament, then I am not sure where the Tories will be. They will have many Tory backbenchers and Lords deeply unhappy.
The solution is to pass a weird fudge that doesn't make sense, but sort-of turns European rights into British rights, and sort-of makes some claim about the relationship with the Strasbourg court that doesn't mean much in practice. This is what Grayling proposed and it'll worry a few lawyerly types, but it won't particularly exercise the voters of Nuneaton.
Comments
Strikers should also be forced to recompense their employers for any loss of business during strikes.
This government isn't right wing enough.
when will he tackle no win \ no fee ? Lawyers in such cases should be treated as co-litigants and have damages awarded against them.
Lawyers are a bigger cost to business than strikers.
As someone who went to Conference, there was a great deal of ill will to Reckless regarding this that wasn't felt in the same way to Carswell.
The biggest problem the LDs face is their activists are getting old.
But give Michael Gove some time.
Of course its not a 'snoopers charter' any more than we had a 'bedroom tax'. Can the SNP tell us why they would want to promote a 'Lets Make Life Easy For Terrorists amendment'? Oh yes - they are a bunch of infantile far lefty-CND appeasers.
David Davis' by election was about the greater glorification and future ambition of David Davis. It was not about 42 day detention.
Should imagine the SNP will fall into the big trap and oppose this.
And then of course there's always the threat to defect to unemployment UKIP.....
Its possible, but it'll take a hell of a lot of work, time and energy, and how much activists can do.
http://youtu.be/PEvbm6ZvJM8
Will this have the same effect as it had on the Tories of pushing Labour further to the extremes? Time will tell but it certainly won't make their task any easier.
Governments get people upset with them during mid-term. As Terry Pratchett said "It's not worth doing something unless someone, somewhere, would much rather you weren't doing it"
Judge a government on election results after five years not on mid-term protest polls.
The British Bill of Rights is going to be interesting. Will they pitch it as continuity, or a revolution? Change (add?) substantive right, or just change process?
'With the LibDem incumbents gone, and the party starting from such a low base in seat terms, there's no going back to the old LibDem way of campaigning.'
I would have thought their main priority would be to try and hang onto the 8 seats they have as several of those are now marginal.
I nearly voted Lib Dem at the GE (and would have been one of the few poor, deluded people to do so had my Lib Dem candidate not proved himself unable to spell on a leaflet), and I voted Labour in the locals as he was the best of the bunch.
As for Reckless: it is his entire manner. My only knowledge of him before he went over to UKIP was from his presence on the Home Affairs Select Committee, where he royally pi**ed me off on a couple of occasions with the way he questioned people. The way he moved over to UKIP, and some of the things he said afterwards, only concreted my opinion.
And I'm not sure his move was anything to do with principle.
Good riddance to him.
They should also informally align with Labour. When Labour do well, so do the LDs.
Lots of opportunities in the next parliament.
I'm up for it, but the unions will not take that lying down. Legal challenge methinks.
Just in time for the referendum :-)
It doesn't seem so long ago that they were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a by-election in Henley. Truth is, short of the delayed pain of Eastleigh being saved in the last Parliament, it has been quite some while since their fabled by-election machine has done the business. It will be interesting to see if they can even hold any of their deposits in the by-elections this Parliament.
Does the first thing the new Lab leader want to do is stick up for the unions.
Red Chuka or Red Liz monikers at the ready.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-faces-potentially-fatal-blow-as-unison-considers-calling-for-resig.125764106
I would much rather they stayed in power and led SLAB into what promises to be a brutal campaign for Holyrood 2016, as it stands SLAB would loose virtually all of its constituency seats and be under real pressure at a regional level.
If SLAB wants to have any hope of salvaging as much as possible in 2016 they need a completely different approach, they need to learn lessons from Nicola Sturgeon. Reading Jackie Baillie's comments is depressing, SLAB just don't seem to get it. As ever they need to first release their membership numbers, so that we can see how bad things have got, sadly a fair chunk of SLAB's current membership will be BT Tories who signed up for £1 memberships to help vote Jim Murphy in !!
The US has it right where the first amendment is basically unbreakable. Free speech trumps everything except in the most extreme circumstances. As Voltaire said I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it.
Europe has not been prioritising free speech. A British Bill of Rights needs to make clear more than anything else that we respect free speech as an inviolable right.
Ed probably cost them several seats in the South West where people frightened of a Labour government voted for a safer option.
"Withholding work if you're getting an unfair deal is basic freedom of British people. Labour must oppose latest Tory proposals."
A relatively small army will actually preclude any dubious military adventures. We can still offer physical and moral support from the air and from special forces. We should develop our special and elite forces to be the cornerstone of our army. This would mean only being able to sustain relatively small forces in operations but they would be a force multiplier whilst other nations (local troops?) formed the main back up.
The early (pre-1992) polls were effectively the former; pollsters tried to get a representative sample, asked the voting intention question, and reported the answer. The famous 'shy Tories' adjustment which was brought in after 1992 by ICM, and other adjustments made by other pollsters, take polls more towards the latter. However, these adjustments are necessarily somewhat arbitrary: they are introducing behavioural predictions into what purports to be a survey asking people how they will vote.
My own view is that it is best to keep a clear distinction between the straightforward snapshot polling, and the modelling of likely behaviour (and thus of the final result) which you can carry out using the opinion polling as one of the inputs. Other inputs would be likely to include leader ratings, economic factors, and so on. I fear that we may end up with pollsters muddling the two even more than they currently do.
They easily held Newbury in 1997 by 8,500, and held it again in 2001.
Tories won Newbury last week by 26,368. Double the 1983 majority
(no typo!)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3077300/Showing-six-pack-raving-superclub-cavorting-dancers-Internet-pranksters-imagine-Ed-Miliband-s-Ibiza-trip.html
And if we copied it we would be going back to our own English radical roots: Locke, Milton etc. I really hope that we do it.
Is the legal ability to tap telephones a 'snoopers charter' ?
When we see proposals (ie the 'bedroom tax') deliberately misnamed, then how are we to judge them? Lets hope we do not go down the New Speak route.
He's every woman you know.
1/ Is it safe to presume that somewhere in my raw data I have, save for the correct processing, the right answer?
2/ Should I expect a poll to foretell the election result at all? Analogously, if you poll football fans at a game at half time and the score's 1-0, what does that tell you about the score at full time, except that it won't be 0-0? Maybe nothing I do with my data can reconcile it to the outcome.
3/ If I do come up with a way of processing the raw data that correctly hindcasts the result, how do I know it's correct for 2020?
4/ Is the correct way to establish public opinion necessarily a poll of public opinion? Rod Crosby came up with a more accurate method of predicting the election outcome that used extrapolation from previous elections, i.e. it did not consider opinion poll data at all.
Ultimately, are pollsters trying to measure or predict something that cannot be predicted or measured? We've seen climate scientists resorting to making the past colder in order to prove that the present is warmer. If an entire academic discipline has to fiddle data to stand up its most basic tenet, is it even safe to presume that opinion polling can work?
Kevin Foster taking Torbay was fantastic too :O)
@paulwaugh: Chuka announcement in Swindon cos determined not to make announcement in Westminster to 'get out of the bubble', supporters say
@MrHarryCole: Chuka really reaching out to England. He's managed an hour on the train to Swindon.
I don't know enough to comment but I think that untangling it will be harder than Gove thinks not least because so much of the ECHR was written by English lawyers. He would be best trying to deal with some of the bizarre judgments which so infuriate people e.g. people who are not nationals, convicted of some awful crimes, still a threat to people here but somehow still entitled to live here. A rebalancing of the criteria so that where someone is a threat or has committed serious crimes this overrides their right to live here as opposed to their own country would help.
The chief secretary to the treasury is no longer a full cabinet minister, so the chancellor of the exchequer is the only full cabinet minister in the treasury. When was the last time this happened?
It would appear that the cabinet office has two cabinet ministers, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and the Paymaster General (which used to be the no 3 role at the treasury but now is at the cabinet office).
Does this mean that there will be a different central co-ordination of policy given that the quod no longer exists?
cue nat howls of traitor, wimp, Untermensch etc.
Their main goal is going to avoid creating any new rights that people don't already have. Since they apparently plan to stay in the European Convention on Human Rights, this will in practice mean writing something as close as possible to the European Convention on Human Rights, but calling it British instead of European.
I mean I deal with people like him all the time and even I would run a mile in the opposite direction.
No doubt some will think this is unlikely, but what if Cameron backs staying in the EU, even if he could not negotiate the changes he wanted.
For example Cameron wants to remove the UK from ECHR and instead have UK courts reviewing Human Rights under a UK bill of rights. Being a member of ECHR is a requirement of all EU member states and this will not be something than can be negotiated away. What happens then ? Will Michael Gove still try to get a UK bill of rights through parliament ? I think it is very unlikely that both Houses of Parliament will vote in favour of such a bill, if it tries to sideline the ECHR. If the Tories cannot get this bill through parliament, then I am not sure where the Tories will be. They will have many Tory backbenchers and Lords deeply unhappy.
I think the EU will still be the big issue that causes the Tories to lose power again. It splits their party more than it does Labour.
My guess is that a lot of the drop in Labour's vote efficiency will come down to double-incumbency, which also helps explain why Labour's vote became more efficient in 2001, before dropping in the next two elections.
Interesting strategy.
Clean sweep at Communities and Local Government...hope that's a portend of a less abrasive manner to the poor bloody infantry
You've probably heard the phrase "too wee, too poor, too stupid" which is the Nationalist summary of the anti-independence movement. That doesn't come from the rest of the UK, that comes from SLab. It is SLab that put out general election leaflets (2005 if I remember correctly) saying "Break up Britain Scotland goes broke", it is the leader of SLab who goes on TV and says that Scottish people can't make political decisions.
SLab approach to attacking the SNP has been to
A) try an attack the current leader - who invariably has sky high net favourable/unfavourable ratings.
B ) talk down Scotland.
It's 40 years since the reactionary dinosaur Tories elected a female leader. Labour really needs a female leader next to correct this.
I doubt it..