This could waste my time at work for weeks... Polly, Eoin, Toilets, Bad Al...
That or a thread each weekend on the power of twitter and the left?
Owen in his Montie history-rewrite impression was saying how poor Ed M's campaign had been in the morning post-mortem.
Owen Jones retweeted Kevin Maguire@Kevin_Maguire · May 7 Spoke to a Tory who'll hold his seat but is downbeat nationally, praying for shy votes. Said: "Our campaign was shit." I agreed
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 “But my vote doesn’t matter in a safe seat.” The Tories will point to the national vote to try and stay in power. So it really really does!
David Schneider@davidschneider · May 6 It's Election Eve, when Santa Cameron brings you his presents. Unless you're on the naughty* list.
*poor, vulnerable, disabled, young.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 6 Spoiler! It's left-of-centre parties winning most seats in Parliament and the right losing the election.
Interesting that the unionist vote in Northern Ireland seems to be increasing. Any reason why?
A long-term demographic change is the rise in the Catholic proportion of the population. But, that's now pretty well run its course. Catholics who are now reasonably well off are opting out of political engagement, like their Protestant counterparts did, a generation ago.
In addition, the DUP are making a big effort to target socially conservative Catholics, on issues like abortion and gay marriage. I think they're having a degree of success.
They came close in another Belfast seat too I believe.
Long term it was possibly better for the Labour guy standing in Hallam not to have won. If he had unseated Clegg, he would have likely lost his seat in 2020. Now he can try and find a better seat for Labour for 2020 with the "I run Clegg close in Hallam" on his CV.
This could waste my time at work for weeks... Polly, Eoin, Toilets, Bad Al...
That or a thread each weekend on the power of twitter and the left?
Owen in his Montie history-rewrite impression was saying how poor Ed M's campaign had been in the morning post-mortem.
Owen Jones retweeted Kevin Maguire@Kevin_Maguire · May 7 Spoke to a Tory who'll hold his seat but is downbeat nationally, praying for shy votes. Said: "Our campaign was shit." I agreed
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 “But my vote doesn’t matter in a safe seat.” The Tories will point to the national vote to try and stay in power. So it really really does!
David Schneider@davidschneider · May 6 It's Election Eve, when Santa Cameron brings you his presents. Unless you're on the naughty* list.
*poor, vulnerable, disabled, young.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 6 Spoiler! It's left-of-centre parties winning most seats in Parliament and the right losing the election.
"Research from the LGBT Representation and Rights Research Initiative from the University of North Carolina, found that one more LGBT MP was elected to the Commons today than before dissolution in March."
why do the University of North Carolina study the number of gay MPs in the Commons?
It certainly is odd how foreigners with doctorates have an interest in gay MP's ....
I sat on my sofa at 10pm last night thinking, like many, it would be a hung parliament with weeks of wrangling, or even a Labour minority.
16 hours later, when I finally stirred from the sofa for an hour's kip, Farage, Clegg and Miliband had all resigned, the Tories had romped home with a majority, Cameron had seen the Queen, and had re-entered No.10.
oooh. Delicious. I'm gonna pour myself another fat G&T before reading.
I'm LOVING the lefty anguish. I think this is our version of 1997. Yummy.
Rewatching the first 90 mins of the BBC coverage last night should be equally lovely as EVERY Labour MP or spokesperson (Bad Al too) droned out the party line that the main news was David Cameron's failure to win a majority (even on the exit poll which they didn't believe for a minute), he had failed by his own benchmark. They were all suggesting how Lab could form a left of centre coalition as he'd failed to do that...
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
The thought occurs that one day someone will find a way to properly account for shy Tories again, which will come as a massive shock when it happens, as on the basis of this result Tories may be more confident in the face of less good polling in future.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Same feelings here. Dazed and confused (an hour's sleep in the past 36 doesn't help..). See my prior post.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Same feelings here. Dazed and confused (an hour's sleep in the past 36 doesn't help..). See my prior post.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
You think that's amazing..
I made it thru to 3am before giving up on the ever more dire BBC coverage before going to ITV in the hope of actually seeing some declarations - no yacht at least!
The Beeb seemed more interested in an Open University debate chatting around all things other than specific results, Kellner looking for any good Labour seat news to report and defending his polling epic fail... Laura K was great and Dimbleby seemed to cut her off repeatedly, she looked like she had to bite her tongue on many occasionso to my eye!
I sat on my sofa at 10pm last night thinking, like many, it would be a hung parliament with weeks of wrangling, or even a Labour minority.
16 hours later, when I finally stirred from the sofa for an hour's kip, Farage, Clegg and Miliband had all resigned, the Tories had romped home with a majority, Cameron had seen the Queen, and had re-entered No.10.
"Let Harriet Harman act as interim leader for six months to give the party time to recover and regroup, just as Margaret Beckett held the fort after John Smith’s death. The Tories gained greatly by Michael Howard agreeing to stay on long enough in 2005 to allow Cameron, the unexpected interloper, to break through. "
Harman acted as interim leader in 2010, and thereby helped the Tories to win this election, because she wasn't good enough to prevent Osborne from creating his narrative. As Hodges has said, it is Ed Miliband who should be sticking around as the interim leader, as Howard did in 2005.
I'm sure the right must have its own useless idiots, a la Toynbee, but she is part of the problem.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Thatcher has such a status not because she won elections but because she did what she believed was right for the country. Cameron needs to do the same.
I just want to repeat too something I posted earlier. This 12 seat majority is not the same as if Cameron was facing a 290 strong Labour opposition. The opposition benches are disparate and scattered, almost literally. The opposition would have a devil of a job marshalling all their forces to oppose anything the Gov't will put through. The practical working majority is therefore probably nearer 30 or 40.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Tories love a winner, more than anything. Hence, in part, the quasi-religious reverence for Thatcher across the party (outside small, posh, europhile circles).
Cameron has done the impossible. Got a majority after winning just a minority. And he's left the opposition humbled, frightened and vanquished.
He's master of all he surveys. His critics are mute. What will he do with the power?
Make the party mould to his desires yet further one would hope. One of the fears some have is him being in hock to his madder backbenchers given the scale of the majority, but with such a great achievement against the odds, he'll never have a better time to cement his brand of conservatism on the party to the extent even those types cannot resist it, not when Cameron is riding so high. Will people proudly wear the label of Cameroonian conservative in time, just as some try to do with Thatcherism?
It won't last forever, not with the issues he has to face, some of which really don't appear to have any easy solutions, but it's impossible not to admire what he's managed here, even with the factors which aided him from his opponents.
"Let Harriet Harman act as interim leader for six months to give the party time to recover and regroup, just as Margaret Beckett held the fort after John Smith’s death. The Tories gained greatly by Michael Howard agreeing to stay on long enough in 2005 to allow Cameron, the unexpected interloper, to break through. "
Harman acted as interim leader in 2010, and thereby helped the Tories to win this election, because she wasn't good enough to prevent Osborne from creating his narrative. As Hodges has said, it is Ed Miliband who should be sticking around as the interim leader, as Howard did in 2005.
I'm sure the right must have its own useless idiots, a la Toynbee, but she is part of the problem.
She appears to be saying Ed should have fallen on his sword a year ago but I thought up until last night she'd been defending him against Dan Hodges and John Rentoul?
"Let Harriet Harman act as interim leader for six months to give the party time to recover and regroup, just as Margaret Beckett held the fort after John Smith’s death. The Tories gained greatly by Michael Howard agreeing to stay on long enough in 2005 to allow Cameron, the unexpected interloper, to break through. "
Harman acted as interim leader in 2010, and thereby helped the Tories to win this election, because she wasn't good enough to prevent Osborne from creating his narrative. As Hodges has said, it is Ed Miliband who should be sticking around as the interim leader, as Howard did in 2005.
I'm sure the right must have its own useless idiots, a la Toynbee, but she is part of the problem.
She appears to be saying Ed should have fallen on his sword a year ago but I thought up until last night she'd been defending him against Dan Hodges?
You're trying to use logic on stuff Polly Toynbee says?
It's curious that Cameron has so far offered a somewhat conciliatory tone. Maybe it's just because of Scotland and he doesn't genuinely want another referendum. But what can he do? Full fiscal autonomy would be a disaster for Scotland right now and the SNP may be happy with new powers but Barnett is still key. If the Tories aren't going to adjust their budget plans it will surely mean big cuts coming to Scotland. Things will surely only get worse.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Tories love a winner, more than anything. Hence, in part, the quasi-religious reverence for Thatcher across the party (outside small, posh, europhile circles).
Cameron has done the impossible. Got a majority after winning just a minority. And he's left the opposition humbled, frightened and vanquished.
He's master of all he surveys. His critics are mute. What will he do with the power?
Make the party mould to his desires yet further one would hope.
You limit him. He's not so interested in just moulding the party. He wants to mould the nation. It's what drives him and it's why he won. He took the centre. From Blair.
To be fair that's what you did indeed go on to say. I think his One Nation conservatism will become as big a watchword as Thatcherism.
Stunning. Just stunning. Think of the context of what he inherited ...
I wonder if lots of mocking pundits have been sending notes of contrition to Dan Hodges today? A man who exploited a writing niche to a hugely prolific and insistent degree, with resounding ire heading his way as a result, but has been largely vindicated. He must be feeling pretty great right now.
I wonder if lots of mocking pundits have been sending notes of contrition to Dan Hodges today? A man who exploited a writing niche to a hugely prolific and insistent degree, with resounding ire heading his way as a result, but has been largely vindicated. He must be feeling pretty great right now.
Not so sure about feeling great...he still has to streak as he got UKIP prediction wrong.
It's curious that Cameron has so far offered a somewhat conciliatory tone. Maybe it's just because of Scotland and he doesn't genuinely want another referendum. But what can he do? Full fiscal autonomy would be a disaster for Scotland right now and the SNP may be happy with new powers but Barnett is still key. If the Tories aren't going to adjust their budget plans it will surely mean big cuts coming to Scotland. Things will surely only get worse.
FFA can't be a disaster for Scotland. We've been told countless times that England is subsidised by Scotland.
This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.
A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.
For the Lib Dems, Question 1 was far closer to the mark.
Though it does look like the LDs were better than Labour at defending their seats against the SNP. I mean, they still lost, but they weren't getting hit with the 30%+ swings that SLAB were.
Speaking of, is the 39% swing in Glasgow NE a record for a general election?
Question Time - UKIP were invited but had nobody available.
Has their membership collapsed that much they couldn't find anyone to go on Question Time? Ofcom need to review the situation and remove their Major Party status and assign them in the same group as parties like Respect and the Greens with 1 seat also. Lib Dems can join them too.
Long term it was possibly better for the Labour guy standing in Hallam not to have won. If he had unseated Clegg, he would have likely lost his seat in 2020. Now he can try and find a better seat for Labour for 2020 with the "I run Clegg close in Hallam" on his CV.
Out of interest, do you know how many Labour candidates failed to beat their Lib Dem opponent? Can't be that big a club.
It's worth remembering that the night before the election when all the polls showed a move to Labour and a few of my Labour chums rather foolishly came all over all Sheffield, there were a number of righties on here berating voters and accusing them of stupidity, believing in the magic money tree etc.
The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.
Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.
I reckon Ozzie will prevail.
That's a few London seats gone in the next election then. From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
No it isn't. Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect. It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
Similar problems in Sussex if they choose Gatwick.
All businesses and airlines know that Heathrow is the only plausible solution. I reckon Osborne will overrule Boris. But we shall see.
I do not believe that is true. Individuals I know in the airline industry would much prefer Gatwick because they know that Heathrow will take a lot longer to get the thing built, due to all the delays, compulsory purchases and planning issues involved. Gatwick could do it in ten years.
The other issue in the mix is that the government has been told by the EU that it needs to meet London pollution limits far faster than it previously thought. Adding substantial airport expansion into Greater London area will make that a lot more expensive.
They need to make a decision quickly and get on with it. Dubai built their new T3 in less time that Heathrow T5's planning enquiry!
By the time we actually have a new runway anywhere it will be time to build the next one. Not start talking about the next one, actually building it.
This could waste my time at work for weeks... Polly, Eoin, Toilets, Bad Al...
That or a thread each weekend on the power of twitter and the left?
Owen in his Montie history-rewrite impression was saying how poor Ed M's campaign had been in the morning post-mortem.
Owen Jones retweeted Kevin Maguire@Kevin_Maguire · May 7 Spoke to a Tory who'll hold his seat but is downbeat nationally, praying for shy votes. Said: "Our campaign was shit." I agreed
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7 “But my vote doesn’t matter in a safe seat.” The Tories will point to the national vote to try and stay in power. So it really really does!
David Schneider@davidschneider · May 6 It's Election Eve, when Santa Cameron brings you his presents. Unless you're on the naughty* list.
*poor, vulnerable, disabled, young.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 6 Spoiler! It's left-of-centre parties winning most seats in Parliament and the right losing the election.
It's curious that Cameron has so far offered a somewhat conciliatory tone. Maybe it's just because of Scotland and he doesn't genuinely want another referendum. But what can he do? Full fiscal autonomy would be a disaster for Scotland right now and the SNP may be happy with new powers but Barnett is still key. If the Tories aren't going to adjust their budget plans it will surely mean big cuts coming to Scotland. Things will surely only get worse.
Cameron knows that if the Union goes on his watch that is what he'll be remembered for. I suspect he has a very strong feeling of British identity made greater by his time as PM of the UK, as well as a very keen sense of history. Remember those overheard comments about calling the Queen after the referendum. They were heartfelt. But he has one hell of a job on his hands.
Interesting that the unionist vote in Northern Ireland seems to be increasing. Any reason why?
A long-term demographic change is the rise in the Catholic proportion of the population. But, that's now pretty well run its course. Catholics who are now reasonably well off are opting out of political engagement, like their Protestant counterparts did, a generation ago.
In addition, the DUP are making a big effort to target socially conservative Catholics, on issues like abortion and gay marriage. I think they're having a degree of success.
They came close in another Belfast seat too I believe.
I doubt any significant number of Catholics voted for the DUP. It's important to remember the sheer level of sectarianism and even hatred that still persists there, and that's going to be particularly relevant to conservative Catholics who are aware of the DUP's Free Presbyterianism extremist wing. Much more likely that they would back the less-radical SDLP with the mildly Hibernian aspect to its heritage, especially in rural areas.
The DUP came close in Belfast South because of the unusual split of the progressive, non-sectarian vote among SDLP, Alliance and Greens, and because of the intervention of Sinn Féin which took five thousand Catholic votes from the SDLP. The DUP vote actually fell back as Ukip marched forward. In fact, Ukip made a pretty significant impact for a GB party. They only stood in just over half the constituencies, but won one in forty votes across Northern Ireland, outpolling by double the NI Conservatives.
I think much can be explained by differential turnout. Unionists have felt under siege for five years, partly due to the demographics, and attitudes have distinctly hardened among the agitated non-prosperous people most likely to turn out in Northern Ireland.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.
Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.
I reckon Ozzie will prevail.
That's a few London seats gone in the next election then. From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
No it isn't. Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect. It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
6 by-elections and the Tories will be in trouble.
Lol - all day you've been rubbishing the result - give it up , chill out, go beat up a bigot....
I run an Australian polling and elections blog rather a lot like this one. In this country, our three best performing pollsters are called Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy. Looking at the most recent elections nationally and for the three biggest states, we have had:
- A New South Wales state election in March which was polled by all three pollsters in the final days of the campaign, in which Galaxy and ReachTEL were within 1% for Labor, the conservative coalition and the Greens, with the worst error being a 1.6% understatement of the Coalition vote in Newspoll;
- A Queensland state election in January where none of the three pollsters was more than 0.5% out for the two major parties, and Galaxy and ReachTEL were again within 1% for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens;
- A Victorian state election last November where the worst error for the three parties from any of the three pollsters was 2.3%;
- A national election in September 2013, at which a) the pollsters' worst error for the three parties was 2.1%, which is inclusive of three separate ReachTEL polls conducted in the final week; and b) both Newspoll and another pollster, Nielsen, were no more than 1.1% out for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.
I'm pretty sure there has *never* been an election here where the pollsters have been as embarrassed as they were in Britain yesterday and in 1992, and even errors like the one with the Liberal Democrats in 2010 are rare.
Nonetheless, all of the complaints that are listed in the last paragraph of Nick Sparrow's piece are regularly trotted out here as well. We keep waiting for growing non-response rates and heavy reliance on landline phones to lead to disaster, and it keeps not happening (I'd observe that these are all phone pollsters I'm discussing - our online pollsters probably aren't doing as well).
It seems to me that the difference is compulsory voting. At least three-quarters of the adult population casts a valid vote in Australia, and the other quarter are presumably among the non-respondents. So there's nothing in questionnaires about likelihood of voting, and no need to second guess the accuracy of their responses. And because there has never been a past disaster like 1992, pollsters have pretty much just stuck to demographic weighting, without ever having to devise ad hoc solutions like weighting by past vote as problems have emerged.
So while I don't necessarily think British pollsters have much to learn from Australian ones, who are simply lucky to be working in an easier environment, Australian experience may well help in diagnosing the problems in British polling, which might not always be the ones commonly supposed.
The thought occurs that one day someone will find a way to properly account for shy Tories again, which will come as a massive shock when it happens, as on the basis of this result Tories may be more confident in the face of less good polling in future.
I don't think that shy Tories exist. I took some of my own recommendations about turnout weighting, by reducing the turnout figures by 20% among those under 65 I get close to the final figures using the last polls published, I even tried it with 2010 polls to see and behold the LD surge disappears and they go to 3rd place on around 23%.
In the 2015 polls using that method I turned a yougov tie to a 2 point Tory lead, a ComRes 1 point Tory lead to a 4 point Tory lead, an ICM 1 point Labour lead to a Tory 3 point lead , in all cases the Tories approach the final result but still they are 2 points lower and Labour 2 points higher but it doesn't impact the LD or UKIP.
In the 2010 polls I tried it on a Populus poll and from CON 37, LAB 26, LD 28 it turns into CON 39, LAB 26, LD 23, in that case the Tories are 3 points higher and Labour 3 points lower, but no LD surge.
I think turnout adjustment is a good start, but it depends on the level of employment and the number of students, those 2 categories vote less often because election day is on a week day. Also if the weather is bad, pensioners will tend to go less out. I know it from experience as I tallied the age profiles of voters per hour outside the same polling booths in 2 different elections.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
I've always been a better winner than loser and can extend him some sympathy. It must be hard for Ashdown having been the critical factor in bringing the Lib Dems into coalition to then see the consequence of that decision being the destruction of his life's work, particularly when at the same time the Lib Dems' coalition allies were going on to form a majority government at Ashdown's party's expense.
In such circumstances, I'm quite sure I wouldn't be capable of giving balanced and reasoned opinion.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
Ashdown is bitter - only it seems laced with an element of nastiness these days which, I have to say does not chime with that spirit of Liberalism which Cleggy was going on about in his resignation speech.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
You think a PR man and a Lib Dem leader are more responsible for the current situation than the man whose election campaign has involved, for a second time, whipping up English resentment of being governed by Scots?
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
It's worth remembering that the night before the election when all the polls showed a move to Labour and a few of my Labour chums rather foolishly came all over all Sheffield, there were a number of righties on here berating voters and accusing them of stupidity, believing in the magic money tree etc.
I was somewhat convinced by their optimism (and my impression that the Tory ground game isn't that great, which may or may not be justified).
The poll with the lowest figure for Labour is the correct one.
You can only lose money betting that Rod Crosby will be wrong.
If Survation had actually published their 37% poll it would have been bang on with the adage pick the biggest Tory and smallest Labour. But hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Rod put his neck on the line and was proved basically right AGAIN and the NumberCruncher guy went even further and was basically bang on.
I don't know, sorry. But I guess there aren't many other than those standing in the seats gained by Con or SNP from LD incumbents. Some in former LD seats like Richmond Park...but not all as I see LDs finished last in Weston super Mare....
Generally LibDems have been pushed back 2 generations (ok, I am exaggerating now) in their former target seats. In many seats they hoped to gain from Con in 2005 or from Lab in 2010 they have been pushed back to law 10s or worse.
Long term it was possibly better for the Labour guy standing in Hallam not to have won. If he had unseated Clegg, he would have likely lost his seat in 2020. Now he can try and find a better seat for Labour for 2020 with the "I run Clegg close in Hallam" on his CV.
Out of interest, do you know how many Labour candidates failed to beat their Lib Dem opponent? Can't be that big a club.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Today is peak Tory hubris, which is fine. But they are on thirty six point something per cent of the vote. Lose four points and they are less popular than Michael Howard. So perhaps not alienating influential professional blocs is a good idea.
All getting a bit angry on sky news. Far left labour guy failing to understand what's wrong, labour will never move on if they continue with this tripe
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
The Gove toxic meme was one of the myths trotted out on here with YG polling to back it up. Twas rubbish then and is the same now.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
You think a PR man and a Lib Dem leader are more responsible for the current situation than the man whose election campaign has involved, for a second time, whipping up English resentment of being governed by Scots?
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
Absolutely I do. This is their mess, they cocked up devolution deliberately.
The devolution mess was created and the surge in the SNP started long before Cameron became PM. The SNP momentum had become mammoth years before Cameron called for an ultimate answer to WLQ (which always needed addressing).
Should the English be worried about being governed undemocratically by the Scots? Yes! If the SNP are voting on English-only laws then that is a disgrace and it is Cameron's duty to prevent that, which he's done.
Question Time - UKIP were invited but had nobody available.
Has their membership collapsed that much they couldn't find anyone to go on Question Time? Ofcom need to review the situation and remove their Major Party status and assign them in the same group as parties like Respect and the Greens with 1 seat also. Lib Dems can join them too.
I don't think that would be my read of the situation. I have some sympathy for the UKIP given how appallingly the BBC treated them in general. I'm very proud of the Labour switchers who stayed true to UKIP last night.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
You think a PR man and a Lib Dem leader are more responsible for the current situation than the man whose election campaign has involved, for a second time, whipping up English resentment of being governed by Scots?
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
That's just silly. Labour and the Lib Dems created asymmetric devolution. It was entirely predictable that the English would eventually get pissed off by it. Labour and the Lib Dems sowed the wind, and last night they reaped the whirlwind.
All getting a bit angry on sky news. Far left labour guy failing to understand what's wrong, labour will never move on if they continue with this tripe
All the Labour talking heads I have seen are all sticking to Labour didn't overspend, or if they did it was only a tiny amount...it just isn't going to fly, how many times they trot it out and if there is a small element of truth...it is now one of those things like "Tories always cut the NHS and sell it off to private providers" meme, it doesn't matter if it is true or not.
The thought occurs that one day someone will find a way to properly account for shy Tories again, which will come as a massive shock when it happens, as on the basis of this result Tories may be more confident in the face of less good polling in future.
I don't think that shy Tories exist. I took some of my own recommendations about turnout weighting, by reducing the turnout figures by 20% among those under 65 I get close to the final figures using the last polls published, I even tried it with 2010 polls to see and behold the LD surge disappears and they go to 3rd place on around 23%.
In the 2015 polls using that method I turned a yougov tie to a 2 point Tory lead, a ComRes 1 point Tory lead to a 4 point Tory lead, an ICM 1 point Labour lead to a Tory 3 point lead , in all cases the Tories approach the final result but still they are 2 points lower and Labour 2 points higher but it doesn't impact the LD or UKIP.
In the 2010 polls I tried it on a Populus poll and from CON 37, LAB 26, LD 28 it turns into CON 39, LAB 26, LD 23, in that case the Tories are 3 points higher and Labour 3 points lower, but no LD surge.
I think turnout adjustment is a good start, but it depends on the level of employment and the number of students, those 2 categories vote less often because election day is on a week day. Also if the weather is bad, pensioners will tend to go less out. I know it from experience as I tallied the age profiles of voters per hour outside the same polling booths in 2 different elections.
Isn't it simpler to just:
a) Look at the unweighted 2015: 2010 vote ratio for the Tories and assume it's right; b) Look at the Labour vote and knock 2-3 off for all the DE's/under 30s/twitterati students
Hilarious stuff on Sky and Ben Bradshaw being very good. Labour have to win the centre because that's where majorities are won in Britain. Blair knew it. Cameron knows it. Despite shoring up his core support he is basically a One Nation Tory.
It is going to be extremely hard for Labour. In fact I think this is a crisis that's as severe as 1983 (the last time a Govt increased its share of the vote). They are 100 seats behind the Conservatives with Scotland gone and boundary changes coming up to cull them another 20.
As for LibDems it could actually be the end. It will take a long time for them to rebuild their bases, built over so many years. Places like the south west could be lost for ever.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Today is peak Tory hubris, which is fine. But they are on thirty six point something per cent of the vote. Lose four points and they are less popular than Michael Howard. So perhaps not alienating influential professional blocs is a good idea.
Any govt worth its salt should be spending much of its time challenging restrictive practice wherever it lies. Oh and btw the only evidence for the toxicity was anecdote and a YG poll. Hello! Where have you been for the last 24 hours?
The poll with the lowest figure for Labour is the correct one.
You can only lose money betting that Rod Crosby will be wrong.
If Survation had actually published their 37% poll it would have been bang on with the adage pick the biggest Tory and smallest Labour. But hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Rod put his neck on the line and was proved basically right AGAIN and the NumberCruncher guy went even further and was basically bang on.
The significant number that Survation found was that 50%+ of the British voters supported right wing parties, for the first time since 1935.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
You think a PR man and a Lib Dem leader are more responsible for the current situation than the man whose election campaign has involved, for a second time, whipping up English resentment of being governed by Scots?
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
That's just silly. Labour and the Lib Dems created asymmetric devolution. It was entirely predictable that the English would eventually get pissed off by it. Labour and the Lib Dems sowed the wind, and last night they reaped the whirlwind.
The alternatives were no devolution - which would undoubtedly have led to devolution eventually, or the rise of the SNP to insist on it, because Scots genuinely demanded it - symmetric devolution at regional level - which failed with the plebiscite - and an English parliament - which even the Tories aren't proposing because of the sheer duplication, as noted by Boris last night. So there are no good alternatives when the Scots passionately insist on self-determination. But this is sleight-of-hand; it wasn't EVEL, but fear of the SNP with a role in supporting the government, which won it for the Tories this time.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Tories love a winner, more than anything. Hence, in part, the quasi-religious reverence for Thatcher across the party (outside small, posh, europhile circles).
Cameron has done the impossible. Got a majority after winning just a minority. And he's left the opposition humbled, frightened and vanquished.
He's master of all he surveys. His critics are mute. What will he do with the power?
Make the party mould to his desires yet further one would hope. One of the fears some have is him being in hock to his madder backbenchers given the scale of the majority, but with such a great achievement against the odds, he'll never have a better time to cement his brand of conservatism on the party to the extent even those types cannot resist it, not when Cameron is riding so high. Will people proudly wear the label of Cameroonian conservative in time, just as some try to do with Thatcherism?
It won't last forever, not with the issues he has to face, some of which really don't appear to have any easy solutions, but it's impossible not to admire what he's managed here, even with the factors which aided him from his opponents.
Those 'madder backbenchers' are very much in tune with the 13% who voted UKIP. It shouldn't be an either-or option; the Thatchers and Blairs managed to attract and keep the centre and the core happy. Therein lies his challenge. While keeping Scotland content. And the economy recovering. And so on.
All getting a bit angry on sky news. Far left labour guy failing to understand what's wrong, labour will never move on if they continue with this tripe
Great - the longer they do this the better for the country - cos they do it from the opposition benches.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Departments should be run for the benefit of those served by them, not those who work in them. Same applies to health, let's have GPs surgeries and expensive scanners open 18 hours a day.
Hilarious stuff on Sky and Ben Bradshaw being very good. Labour have to win the centre because that's where majorities are won in Britain. Blair knew it. Cameron knows it. Despite shoring up his core support he is basically a One Nation Tory.
It is going to be extremely hard for Labour. In fact I think this is a crisis that's as severe as 1983 (the last time a Govt increased its share of the vote). They are 100 seats behind the Conservatives with Scotland gone and boundary changes coming up to cull them another 20.
As for LibDems it could actually be the end. It will take a long time for them to rebuild their bases, built over so many years. Places like the south west could be lost for ever.
Actually Labour needs pensioners and getting rid of the SNP. Labour was 30% behind with pensioners and the anti-SNP reaction really got them.
I don't know, sorry. But I guess there aren't many other than those standing in the seats gained by Con or SNP from LD incumbents. Some in former LD seats like Richmond Park...but not all as I see LDs finished last in Weston super Mare....
Generally LibDems have been pushed back 2 generations (ok, I am exaggerating now) in their former target seats. In many seats they hoped to gain from Con in 2005 or from Lab in 2010 they have been pushed back to law 10s or worse.
Long term it was possibly better for the Labour guy standing in Hallam not to have won. If he had unseated Clegg, he would have likely lost his seat in 2020. Now he can try and find a better seat for Labour for 2020 with the "I run Clegg close in Hallam" on his CV.
Out of interest, do you know how many Labour candidates failed to beat their Lib Dem opponent? Can't be that big a club.
You're probably not exaggerating with the "two generations" comment.
- 8 seats is the Liberals' / SDP-Lib alliance's / Lib Dems' worst total since 1970. - 8% is their worst share since 1964 - 8% per seat contested is their worst ever.
And the road back is now blocked by UKIP, the Greens and the SNP.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Today is peak Tory hubris, which is fine. But they are on thirty six point something per cent of the vote. Lose four points and they are less popular than Michael Howard. So perhaps not alienating influential professional blocs is a good idea.
Any govt worth its salt should be spending much of its time challenging restrictive practice wherever it lies. Oh and btw the only evidence for the toxicity was anecdote and a YG poll. Hello! Where have you been for the last 24 hours?
Banks? Landlords? Planning and house-building, the green belt? Immigration? I think the Tories would be happy with a lot of restrictive practices.
What kind of evidence are we looking for in politics then, a randomised controlled trial?
I don't know, sorry. But I guess there aren't many other than those standing in the seats gained by Con or SNP from LD incumbents. Some in former LD seats like Richmond Park...but not all as I see LDs finished last in Weston super Mare....
Generally LibDems have been pushed back 2 generations (ok, I am exaggerating now) in their former target seats. In many seats they hoped to gain from Con in 2005 or from Lab in 2010 they have been pushed back to law 10s or worse.
Long term it was possibly better for the Labour guy standing in Hallam not to have won. If he had unseated Clegg, he would have likely lost his seat in 2020. Now he can try and find a better seat for Labour for 2020 with the "I run Clegg close in Hallam" on his CV.
Out of interest, do you know how many Labour candidates failed to beat their Lib Dem opponent? Can't be that big a club.
You're probably not exaggerating with the "two generations" comment.
- 8 seats is the Liberals' / SDP-Lib alliance's / Lib Dems' worst total since 1970. - 8% is their worst share since 1964 - 8% per seat contested is their worst ever.
And the road back is now blocked by UKIP, the Greens and the SNP.
I can't see how they will ever recover. The best bets for their remaining MP's is to join the Labour party in some kind of Alliance, Labour will need them too in their transition to an English only party.
Am I the only one that has taken nearly 24 hours to become conscious about this? I stayed up the whole night but it was like a surreal dream - an out of the body experience. It's only now I'm realising it actually happened. The whole lot: from Galloway to Hughes, Cable to Balls, Alexander to Farage. And at the end of the saga David Cameron, yes, David Cameron, the posh boy from Eton has just walked back into 10 Downing Street with a Tory majority. If he doesn't yet have demigod status in the party he damned well should have.
Tories love a winner, more than anything. Hence, in part, the quasi-religious reverence for Thatcher across the party (outside small, posh, europhile circles).
Cameron has done the impossible. Got a majority after winning just a minority. And he's left the opposition humbled, frightened and vanquished.
He's master of all he surveys. His critics are mute. What will he do with the power?
Make the party mould to hisadmire what he's managed here, even with the factors which aided him from his opponents.
Those 'madder backbenchers' are very much in tune with the 13% who voted UKIP. It shouldn't be an either-or option; the Thatchers and Blairs managed to attract and keep the centre and the core happy. Therein lies his challenge. While keeping Scotland content. And the economy recovering. And so on.
But no-one said it was meant to be easy.
I should clarify by 'madder' I'm not really talking about their specific politics, although that is obviously the core reason for their not being fans of Cameron to date, but their seeming willingness to mess Cameron about even at the cost of their own side. That's actually an ok decision to take, so 'madder' is a bit unfair on them in that regard, though they have seemed very unreasonable at times in demanding things - so I just wonder if Cameron's new found strength may cow them more even though the government lacks the comfortable majority it had and so their power is theoretically increased.
So while I don't necessarily think British pollsters have much to learn from Australian ones, who are simply lucky to be working in an easier environment, Australian experience may well help in diagnosing the problems in British polling, which might not always be the ones commonly supposed.
Some fascinating comparisons between the two situations. I have to admit that as someone who has never considered not voting, even when I am not sure who I will vote for, I tend to forget about the certainty to vote figures, and that that is not an issue on Australia seems significant in that regard.
Ludicrous to see major election losers Alastair Campbell and Paddy Ashdown blaming Cameron calling for English Votes for English Laws for the rise of the SNP.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
You think a PR man and a Lib Dem leader are more responsible for the current situation than the man whose election campaign has involved, for a second time, whipping up English resentment of being governed by Scots?
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
That's just silly. Labour and the Lib Dems created asymmetric devolution. It was entirely predictable that the English would eventually get pissed off by it. Labour and the Lib Dems sowed the wind, and last night they reaped the whirlwind.
The alternatives were no devolution - which would undoubtedly have led to devolution eventually, or the rise of the SNP to insist on it, because Scots genuinely demanded it - symmetric devolution at regional level - which failed with the plebiscite - and an English parliament - which even the Tories aren't proposing because of the sheer duplication, as noted by Boris last night. So there are no good alternatives when the Scots passionately insist on self-determination. But this is sleight-of-hand; it wasn't EVEL, but fear of the SNP with a role in supporting the government, which won it for the Tories this time.
Most English and Welsh dislike the SNP. And who can blame them?
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Today is peak Tory hubris, which is fine. But they are on thirty six point something per cent of the vote. Lose four points and they are less popular than Michael Howard. So perhaps not alienating influential professional blocs is a good idea.
Any govt worth its salt should be spending much of its time challenging restrictive practice wherever it lies. Oh and btw the only evidence for the toxicity was anecdote and a YG poll. Hello! Where have you been for the last 24 hours?
Banks? Landlords? Planning and house-building, the green belt? Immigration? I think the Tories would be happy with a lot of restrictive practices.
What kind of evidence are we looking for in politics then, a randomised controlled trial?
You're the one who reckoned Gove was toxic with teachers - with no effort to back it up but a dodgy YG. Every SoS since the beginning of time has been boooed and jeered by teacher's conferences. Totally meaningless. With respect to your other random points we need a Malc G response - I'm just too soft to rub salt into the wound.
On topic: your last sentence effectively says: we are selling a pig, the challenge is to rearrange the lipstick on the pig so the punters continue to buy it. If it doesn't work stop doing it at all - having no polls at all is infinitely better than having rubbish ones.
I hope the Tories have the sense to bring Sajid Javid to do Danny Alexander's old job, rather than having him pissing about with plays and paintings which by his own admission he doesn't really care for.
Good call. And Gove back where he belongs at Education too, please Dave.
Gove is toxic with teachers. It depends if Cameron has the balls to say sod it, get back on it.
Today is peak Tory hubris, which is fine. But they are on thirty six point something per cent of the vote. Lose four points and they are less popular than Michael Howard. So perhaps not alienating influential professional blocs is a good idea.
Any govt worth its salt should be spending much of its time challenging restrictive practice wherever it lies. Oh and btw the only evidence for the toxicity was anecdote and a YG poll. Hello! Where have you been for the last 24 hours?
Banks? Landlords? Planning and house-building, the green belt? Immigration? I think the Tories would be happy with a lot of restrictive practices.
What kind of evidence are we looking for in politics then, a randomised controlled trial?
you're the one who reckoned Gove was toxic with teachers - with no effort to back it up but a dodgy YG. Every SoS sice the beginning of time has been boooed and jeered by teacher's conferences. Totally meaningless. With respect to your other random points we need a Malc G response - I'm just too soft to rub salt into the wound.
PB Tories hold the belief that there is no evidence that Gove had a bad reputation on education policy. I wonder why do they think Gove was sacked?
Comments
That or a thread each weekend on the power of twitter and the left?
Owen in his Montie history-rewrite impression was saying how poor Ed M's campaign had been in the morning post-mortem.
Owen Jones retweeted
Kevin Maguire@Kevin_Maguire · May 7
Spoke to a Tory who'll hold his seat but is downbeat nationally, praying for shy votes. Said: "Our campaign was shit." I agreed
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7
The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 7
“But my vote doesn’t matter in a safe seat.” The Tories will point to the national vote to try and stay in power. So it really really does!
David Schneider@davidschneider · May 6
It's Election Eve, when Santa Cameron brings you his presents. Unless you're on the naughty* list.
*poor, vulnerable, disabled, young.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84 · May 6
Spoiler! It's left-of-centre parties winning most seats in Parliament and the right losing the election.
Bad Al's take on why Ed lost could get interesting!
I sat on my sofa at 10pm last night thinking, like many, it would be a hung parliament with weeks of wrangling, or even a Labour minority.
16 hours later, when I finally stirred from the sofa for an hour's kip, Farage, Clegg and Miliband had all resigned, the Tories had romped home with a majority, Cameron had seen the Queen, and had re-entered No.10.
Was it all a dream? If not, how did it happen?
Keeper alongside the Sion Simon article.
No - it will be entirely Labour's fault if they do go.
I made it thru to 3am before giving up on the ever more dire BBC coverage before going to ITV in the hope of actually seeing some declarations - no yacht at least!
The Beeb seemed more interested in an Open University debate chatting around all things other than specific results, Kellner looking for any good Labour seat news to report and defending his polling epic fail... Laura K was great and Dimbleby seemed to cut her off repeatedly, she looked like she had to bite her tongue on many occasionso to my eye!
"Let Harriet Harman act as interim leader for six months to give the party time to recover and regroup, just as Margaret Beckett held the fort after John Smith’s death. The Tories gained greatly by Michael Howard agreeing to stay on long enough in 2005 to allow Cameron, the unexpected interloper, to break through. "
Harman acted as interim leader in 2010, and thereby helped the Tories to win this election, because she wasn't good enough to prevent Osborne from creating his narrative. As Hodges has said, it is Ed Miliband who should be sticking around as the interim leader, as Howard did in 2005.
I'm sure the right must have its own useless idiots, a la Toynbee, but she is part of the problem.
An endorsement, of sorts...
It won't last forever, not with the issues he has to face, some of which really don't appear to have any easy solutions, but it's impossible not to admire what he's managed here, even with the factors which aided him from his opponents.
To be fair that's what you did indeed go on to say. I think his One Nation conservatism will become as big a watchword as Thatcherism.
Stunning. Just stunning. Think of the context of what he inherited ...
Speaking of, is the 39% swing in Glasgow NE a record for a general election?
Has their membership collapsed that much they couldn't find anyone to go on Question Time? Ofcom need to review the situation and remove their Major Party status and assign them in the same group as parties like Respect and the Greens with 1 seat also. Lib Dems can join them too.
By the time we actually have a new runway anywhere it will be time to build the next one. Not start talking about the next one, actually building it.
This is hillarious!
Scotland is one region with a reasonably consistent trend across the piece.
Compare with the trend across eg the South West or The North. England had regional variations.
The DUP came close in Belfast South because of the unusual split of the progressive, non-sectarian vote among SDLP, Alliance and Greens, and because of the intervention of Sinn Féin which took five thousand Catholic votes from the SDLP. The DUP vote actually fell back as Ukip marched forward. In fact, Ukip made a pretty significant impact for a GB party. They only stood in just over half the constituencies, but won one in forty votes across Northern Ireland, outpolling by double the NI Conservatives.
I think much can be explained by differential turnout. Unionists have felt under siege for five years, partly due to the demographics, and attitudes have distinctly hardened among the agitated non-prosperous people most likely to turn out in Northern Ireland.
Don't be absurd, the SNP rose in 2007 and 2011. The referendum debate energised Scots long before Cameron called (belatedly) for EVEL. If Alastair Campbell who was Blair's right hand man during devolution and Paddy Ashdown who was LD leader at the time had thought to address the WLQ 16 years ago it wouldn't be such an open wound now. For them to be blaming Cameron is pathetic. Lost any sympathy I had for Ashdown after last night.
Like, COMPLETELY cleaned out.
- A New South Wales state election in March which was polled by all three pollsters in the final days of the campaign, in which Galaxy and ReachTEL were within 1% for Labor, the conservative coalition and the Greens, with the worst error being a 1.6% understatement of the Coalition vote in Newspoll;
- A Queensland state election in January where none of the three pollsters was more than 0.5% out for the two major parties, and Galaxy and ReachTEL were again within 1% for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens;
- A Victorian state election last November where the worst error for the three parties from any of the three pollsters was 2.3%;
- A national election in September 2013, at which a) the pollsters' worst error for the three parties was 2.1%, which is inclusive of three separate ReachTEL polls conducted in the final week; and b) both Newspoll and another pollster, Nielsen, were no more than 1.1% out for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.
I'm pretty sure there has *never* been an election here where the pollsters have been as embarrassed as they were in Britain yesterday and in 1992, and even errors like the one with the Liberal Democrats in 2010 are rare.
Nonetheless, all of the complaints that are listed in the last paragraph of Nick Sparrow's piece are regularly trotted out here as well. We keep waiting for growing non-response rates and heavy reliance on landline phones to lead to disaster, and it keeps not happening (I'd observe that these are all phone pollsters I'm discussing - our online pollsters probably aren't doing as well).
It seems to me that the difference is compulsory voting. At least three-quarters of the adult population casts a valid vote in Australia, and the other quarter are presumably among the non-respondents. So there's nothing in questionnaires about likelihood of voting, and no need to second guess the accuracy of their responses. And because there has never been a past disaster like 1992, pollsters have pretty much just stuck to demographic weighting, without ever having to devise ad hoc solutions like weighting by past vote as problems have emerged.
So while I don't necessarily think British pollsters have much to learn from Australian ones, who are simply lucky to be working in an easier environment, Australian experience may well help in diagnosing the problems in British polling, which might not always be the ones commonly supposed.
I took some of my own recommendations about turnout weighting, by reducing the turnout figures by 20% among those under 65 I get close to the final figures using the last polls published, I even tried it with 2010 polls to see and behold the LD surge disappears and they go to 3rd place on around 23%.
In the 2015 polls using that method I turned a yougov tie to a 2 point Tory lead, a ComRes 1 point Tory lead to a 4 point Tory lead, an ICM 1 point Labour lead to a Tory 3 point lead , in all cases the Tories approach the final result but still they are 2 points lower and Labour 2 points higher but it doesn't impact the LD or UKIP.
In the 2010 polls I tried it on a Populus poll and from CON 37, LAB 26, LD 28 it turns into CON 39, LAB 26, LD 23, in that case the Tories are 3 points higher and Labour 3 points lower, but no LD surge.
I think turnout adjustment is a good start, but it depends on the level of employment and the number of students, those 2 categories vote less often because election day is on a week day.
Also if the weather is bad, pensioners will tend to go less out.
I know it from experience as I tallied the age profiles of voters per hour outside the same polling booths in 2 different elections.
In such circumstances, I'm quite sure I wouldn't be capable of giving balanced and reasoned opinion.
If the SNP rose in 2007, remind me what happened at GE 2010.
The poll with the lowest figure for Labour is the correct one.
You can only lose money betting that Rod Crosby will be wrong.
I'm yet to do my accounts, but I should be, overall, ok.
Probably up by a couple of grand overall. It should have been a hell of a lot more, though.
Tbh, I'm more concerned about the call I made yesterday afternoon - Mikes bet - selling the SPIN seats gap, looked like a no-brainer.
I did a paper trade, selling con @ 20 @ £1000/seat, which would have resulted in a huge loss of £~75k.
My level of confidence was scary. The stuarttruth's were right.
Rod put his neck on the line and was proved basically right AGAIN and the NumberCruncher guy went even further and was basically bang on.
Generally LibDems have been pushed back 2 generations (ok, I am exaggerating now) in their former target seats. In many seats they hoped to gain from Con in 2005 or from Lab in 2010 they have been pushed back to law 10s or worse.
One saying too far left, the other nowhere near left enough.
The devolution mess was created and the surge in the SNP started long before Cameron became PM. The SNP momentum had become mammoth years before Cameron called for an ultimate answer to WLQ (which always needed addressing).
Should the English be worried about being governed undemocratically by the Scots? Yes! If the SNP are voting on English-only laws then that is a disgrace and it is Cameron's duty to prevent that, which he's done.
Life is complex.
Who would have thought that an SNP majority in Holyrood in 2011 would lead to a Conservative majority in Westminster in 2015 ?
It's not just the British who are relieved...
https://twitter.com/Number10gov/status/596764646817865728
a) Look at the unweighted 2015: 2010 vote ratio for the Tories and assume it's right;
b) Look at the Labour vote and knock 2-3 off for all the DE's/under 30s/twitterati students
It is going to be extremely hard for Labour. In fact I think this is a crisis that's as severe as 1983 (the last time a Govt increased its share of the vote). They are 100 seats behind the Conservatives with Scotland gone and boundary changes coming up to cull them another 20.
As for LibDems it could actually be the end. It will take a long time for them to rebuild their bases, built over so many years. Places like the south west could be lost for ever.
But no-one said it was meant to be easy.
Labour was 30% behind with pensioners and the anti-SNP reaction really got them.
- 8 seats is the Liberals' / SDP-Lib alliance's / Lib Dems' worst total since 1970.
- 8% is their worst share since 1964
- 8% per seat contested is their worst ever.
And the road back is now blocked by UKIP, the Greens and the SNP.
What kind of evidence are we looking for in politics then, a randomised controlled trial?
Oh dear.
The best bets for their remaining MP's is to join the Labour party in some kind of Alliance, Labour will need them too in their transition to an English only party.
I admitted I was wrong when he gave me a pasting in 2010, so....