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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”

The pollsters agreed, it was too close to call, a hung parliament a near certainty. There were even signs in some polls of a swing to Labour over the last few hours and days. Ed looked increasingly confident, Dave a bit dejected. The pollsters polled as late as possible to catch late swing. YouGov re-contacted their final poll sample and found no reason to change their prediction.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So I should go back to reading tea leaves I guess? For the time being at least?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015
    Thanks Nick. Very insightful.

    "Cheap polling" with online polls is definitely one of the big problems, but a lot of the phone pollsters haven' exactly covered themselves in glory...

    Starting with your old firm ICM whose own boss decided to rubbish the ICM poll which showed a 6% Con lead at the start of the campaign.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Are there any polls tonight!!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2015
    This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.

    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:


    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.

    The answer to that is #sexysocialism
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh why hello Ladbrokes account. Yes, that is a lot of money in my balance.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I agree with Dan:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11592907/David-Cameron-should-be-magnanimous-in-victory-but-true-to-himself.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Anthony's trying to make sense of what went wrong;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    New poll. Are polling companies shit. Y 88 N 10 DK 3
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see the Greens deposit bet has not yet been settled.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.

    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.

    I think that could have them barking up the wrong tree - after all they could have been right by accident.

    I think that Nick's last paragraph is the crucial one. Somehow they have to find a better sample, so that fewer adjustments are required, and they can rely on the magic of random chance to give them an accurate, if not precise, picture.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    When is Hodges streaking?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A question/thought on the Greens in the future. Obviously a great result in terms of votes cast and Caroline returning increased, but where could they look to build? I make it two second places - Liverpool Wavertree a distant second and a good close contender in Bristol West, have I missed any?
    Good thirds in Norwich South, albeit on a slightly reduced vote and Holborn which might disintegrate if Natalie goes. Anywhere else? Or is it entirely down to hoping for partial or complete PR?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    bigjohnowls said:

    Are there any polls tonight!!!

    I presume they would show DICIPM ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    Oh why hello Ladbrokes account. Yes, that is a lot of money in my balance.

    Yes, my Ladbrokes balance earlier had a pleasant number of digits.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2015
    following on from sean t last thread

    PBisms never to be seen again:

    1. Great value for toss of a coin.
    2. Pb hodges
    3. Pb tories always wrong and never learn.
    4. Basil
    5. Squirrel
    6. EICIPM
    7. Tick
    8. Tock
    9. TPD
    10. 108 Ukip MPs
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Are there any polls tonight!!!

    I presume they would show DICIPM ?
    Probably not given their accuracy to date!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    chestnut picked apart many of the polls and was mickey taken, ogh did the same from a different view.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    following on from sean t last thread

    PBisms never to be seen again:

    1. Great value for toss of a coin.
    2. Pb hodges
    3. Pb tories always wrong and never learn.
    4. Basil
    5. Squirrel
    6. EICIPM
    7. Tick
    8. Tock
    9. TPD
    10. 108 Ukip MPs

    Number 3 has been recommissioned as "PB Tories are always right, PB Tories always learn"!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Anthony's trying to make sense of what went wrong;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411

    In my opinion it was online polls, D/K reallocation to past parties, faulty turnout weighting and constituency specific questions.

    However Survation says they had a telephone poll in a ballot form that got the result, but I'm skeptical about it given that all phone companies also got it wrong.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    bigjohnowls said:

    Are there any polls tonight!!!

    I hope so, or there will be in uptick in sciuridine unemployment rates.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Interesting that the unionist vote in Northern Ireland seems to be increasing. Any reason why?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anthony's trying to make sense of what went wrong;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411

    In my opinion it was online polls, D/K reallocation to past parties, faulty turnout weighting and constituency specific questions.

    However Survation says they had a telephone poll in a ballot form that got the result, but I'm skeptical about it given that all phone companies also got it wrong.
    A lucky outlier that they can crow about for the next five years?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Just a thought...where does leave HS2?

    The awkward squad could cause Cameron to have to get Labour on board, and at one point Ed Balls was hinting that Labour's stance on this was changing.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Watched drama in Bath, David Hare's Absence of War last night, then spent last night and today watching replay of fiction into fact.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anthony's trying to make sense of what went wrong;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411

    In my opinion it was online polls, D/K reallocation to past parties, faulty turnout weighting and constituency specific questions.

    However Survation says they had a telephone poll in a ballot form that got the result, but I'm skeptical about it given that all phone companies also got it wrong.
    A lucky outlier that they can crow about for the next five years?
    They can't crow about it either, everyone can impersonate a prophet after the event and say "I predicted that but I choose to keep it to myself".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    antifrank said:

    This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.

    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.

    For the Lib Dems, Question 1 was far closer to the mark.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    If the polls had been wrong the other way - they'd underestimated Labour by this sort of margin - how pissed would Labour be that they'd had to spend the campaign fighting off the "you can't win without the SNP" stuff?

    With the outcome we got that doesn't really apply, but I hope we remember this in the future and don't rule out people getting a majority so readily.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    They have to stop pissing about with this. The UK needs more airport capacity and they need to just make the damn decision and get on with it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    FWIW, I think there is a great core of formerly natural labour voters - the working class, working men and women of England especially in whom runs twin strands of pride in work and strife and equally pride in their country. Labours failure has been not just to allow, but to actively channel (by abandoning these core voters) this pride into frustration and then nationalism. UKIPs rise, as seen by where they are coming from as opposed to being blue kippers, is entirely at their doing, there's and the utter failure of Scottish Labour to protect unionism from a position of strength.
    They have to go back to what they were - Keir Hardies party of the workers. Anything else now leads to them losing second place to UKIP, or the horror that will come after UKIP if it fails.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anthony's trying to make sense of what went wrong;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411

    In my opinion it was online polls, D/K reallocation to past parties, faulty turnout weighting and constituency specific questions.

    However Survation says they had a telephone poll in a ballot form that got the result, but I'm skeptical about it given that all phone companies also got it wrong.
    A lucky outlier that they can crow about for the next five years?
    They can't crow about it either, everyone can impersonate a prophet after the event and say "I predicted that but I choose to keep it to myself".
    Very true. If a pollster isn't prepared to back themselves then they can't crow over anything
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Labour created the shy Tory phenomenon. Aided and abetted by the media, especially the BBC - who are now in a very bad place.

    5 years of banging on about the cuts, the bedroom tax, food banks, and zero-hours contracts is (a) only preaching to the converted and (b) creates shy Tories.

    In truth lots of the middle classes have done pretty well out of austerity, but it's not going to be fashionable for them to say so. They might not have had much in the way of nominal pay rises but their mortgage rates have been rock bottom and they haven't lost their jobs.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Whilst I like many others had various issues with the Ashcroft Marginal polls - can you imagine how pissed off he must be after spending millions of his own on them?
    William_H said:

    If the polls had been wrong the other way - they'd underestimated Labour by this sort of margin - how pissed would Labour be that they'd had to spend the campaign fighting off the "you can't win without the SNP" stuff?

    With the outcome we got that doesn't really apply, but I hope we remember this in the future and don't rule out people getting a majority so readily.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    Why not both? :D
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    They have to stop pissing about with this. The UK needs more airport capacity and they need to just make the damn decision and get on with it.
    Heathrow is the most dysfunctional bloated airport in Europe, time for a new airport.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Tissue_Price said:



    In truth lots of the middle classes have done pretty well out of austerity, but it's not going to be fashionable. They might not have have much in the way on nominal pay rises but their mortgage rates have been rock bottom and they haven't lost their jobs.

    Remember when Lord Freud got in lots of trouble for saying this...
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Anyone have a clue as to why my CON MAJ bet is 'pending' at Ladbrokes?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
    The whole narrative of the election was baby eating Scots and LD.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
    The whole narrative of the election was baby eating Scots and LD.
    Ah I meant to caveat that by saying in the context of the government. I don't recall that many attacks on the LDs, it was always about the "conservative-led government".
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    Gatwick is the obviously sensible choice. These are my reasons:

    1. It's probably worth £1000 for everyone in West London and the suburbs to avoid the additional noise. That's almost a billion pounds in lost consumer welfare. It is true people around Gatwick will also be affected, but a tiny fraction.

    2. As Conservatives, we should believe in competition. It's a lot better to have two major airports around London, as that would allow passengers and airlines to choose between them, and avoid any one having a monopoly. That will drive up standards.

    3. If there's ever freak weather like a snowstorm or volcano smoke, we're not putting all our eggs in one basket by only having one hub airport. Managing capacity between two locations will more likely prevent complete gridlock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    wasn't it about puppet weird Red Ed and his bacon being mastered by Queen Nicola of Scotland whipping Englishmen's bank account to pay jobseeker allowance to the LochNess monster?
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    wasn't it about puppet weird Red Ed and his bacon being mastered by Queen Nicola of Scotland whipping Englishmen's bank account to pay jobseeker allowance to the LochNess monster?

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
    Again, in the context of who gets blame for what the government does, sorry!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Along with Paddy eating his hat and Bad Al eating his kilt, I also believe at midnight last night Lord A also said the exit poll was dead wrong....

    Also seen Montie and Nelson amongst others out pontificating on what Cammo should do now - no doubt Portillo will too on TW (will Ed B or NP be the new lab voice on the sofa?) having been so wrong in the run up, why should he listen to such sage advice?

    get hodges in! Even the much insulted Matt Parris did a lot better.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL - brilliant :smiley:
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    wasn't it about puppet weird Red Ed and his bacon being mastered by Queen Nicola of Scotland whipping Englishmen's bank account to pay jobseeker allowance to the LochNess monster?

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    antifrank said:

    This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.

    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.

    Scottish Tories are anything but shy !!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    the baby eating tories. The LibDems takes the blame for being in government regardless if what they do is good or bad. Even if it is good, they are still to be blamed.
    RobD said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    wasn't it about puppet weird Red Ed and his bacon being mastered by Queen Nicola of Scotland whipping Englishmen's bank account to pay jobseeker allowance to the LochNess monster?

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
    Again, in the context of who gets blame for what the government does, sorry!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
    No it isn't.
    Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
    It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Pulpstar said:

    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.

    and what about Clacton too... Rev Oswald did remarkably well. No wonder Carswell didn't dare spend too much time nationally helping the kippers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    calum said:

    antifrank said:

    This is a huge crisis for the polling industry. Its approaches need to be rethought from the ground up.

    A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.

    Scottish Tories are anything but shy !!
    Unmovable, up or down.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd give Dan Hodges a job pronto at CCHQ if I were in charge. He's got the common-man-ear that many prof politicians lose along the way or never had.
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Along with Paddy eating his hat and Bad Al eating his kilt, I also believe at midnight last night Lord A also said the exit poll was dead wrong....

    Also seen Montie and Nelson amongst others out pontificating on what Cammo should do now - no doubt Portillo will too on TW (will Ed B or NP be the new lab voice on the sofa?) having been so wrong in the run up, why should he listen to such sage advice?

    get hodges in! Even the much insulted Matt Parris did a lot better.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.

    Yeah, people really hate their guts.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
    No it isn't.
    Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
    It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
    During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Wow....BBC just said Survation had a poll with Tories on 37% on Wed and they didn't publish because they didn't believe it. Is that the pollsters job to do that?

    Whoever made that decision is currently getting a kicking.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    antifrank said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh why hello Ladbrokes account. Yes, that is a lot of money in my balance.

    Yes, my Ladbrokes balance earlier had a pleasant number of digits.
    William Hill have finally got round to settling my 0-5 SLAB position - ouch !!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Thanks for this Nick.

    Some of us on here were mentioning 1992 months ago (albeit in low voices). Sadly for the pollsters, we were right.

    I'm not sure the problem can be accounted for by last-minute changes in voting intention, which some on the TV have been using as an excuse.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    He said he'd vote Tory if he was in another seat.
    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    I'd give Dan Hodges a job pronto at CCHQ if I were in charge. He's got the common-man-ear that many prof politicians lose along the way or never had.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Along with Paddy eating his hat and Bad Al eating his kilt, I also believe at midnight last night Lord A also said the exit poll was dead wrong....

    Also seen Montie and Nelson amongst others out pontificating on what Cammo should do now - no doubt Portillo will too on TW (will Ed B or NP be the new lab voice on the sofa?) having been so wrong in the run up, why should he listen to such sage advice?

    get hodges in! Even the much insulted Matt Parris did a lot better.

    Hodges voted Labour. He's a Labour man. He'll never join CCHQ.

    It's his Labourness that makes his analysis so cogent. He can see all the problems in the party, from the inside.

  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Schadenfreude rules. In some places. Not here, obv.

    >Tom Logan, from Hatfield, said: “I had a list. Check. Check. Check. And check.
    “Excuse me while I burst.”
    Jane Thomson, from Stevenage, added: “I think Galloway is the best one. And the xxxxxx might get nicked. I’m so happy I’m starting to feel a bit guilty about it.
    “Not really.”


    Source: DYOR.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    During his acceptance speech Boris promised to John McDonnell that he will join him in sitting in front of the bulldozers to stop a 3rd runway at Heathrow.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting that the unionist vote in Northern Ireland seems to be increasing. Any reason why?

    Flegs. In all seriousness I think Ukip mobilised a lot of new voters and the main unionists really upped their game from 2010, and don't discount the effect of the flags protests in all that. I'll create an analysis, impending.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Barnesian said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
    No it isn't.
    Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
    It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
    During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
    6 by-elections and the Tories will be in trouble.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That @numbercruncher article again to complement Mr Sparrow's piece

    ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    During his acceptance speech Boris promised to John McDonnell that he will join him in sitting in front of the bulldozers to stop a 3rd runway at Heathrow.

    He's either be PM, LotO, or failed in his bid to be Tory leader by he time there are any bulldozers bear Heathrow.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    I'd give Dan Hodges a job pronto at CCHQ if I were in charge. He's got the common-man-ear that many prof politicians lose along the way or never had.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Along with Paddy eating his hat and Bad Al eating his kilt, I also believe at midnight last night Lord A also said the exit poll was dead wrong....

    Also seen Montie and Nelson amongst others out pontificating on what Cammo should do now - no doubt Portillo will too on TW (will Ed B or NP be the new lab voice on the sofa?) having been so wrong in the run up, why should he listen to such sage advice?

    get hodges in! Even the much insulted Matt Parris did a lot better.

    Hodges voted Labour. He's a Labour man. He'll never join CCHQ.

    It's his Labourness that makes his analysis so cogent. He can see all the problems in the party, from the inside.

    No he is not, he's a Tory.
    In fact he is the epitome of the modern Tory party along with Matthew Parris.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Wasn't the whole narrative of the election about baby eating Tories, or did I miss something?
    The whole narrative of the election was baby eating Scots and LD.
    Ah I meant to caveat that by saying in the context of the government. I don't recall that many attacks on the LDs, it was always about the "conservative-led government".
    The attacks were internal and from the Tories! Certainly during the campaign!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Channel 4 news about to tell us what happened to the Ed Stone.....!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Plato said:

    That @numbercruncher article again to complement Mr Sparrow's piece

    ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/

    I was the first to post that on here on Wednesday night; it was mostly ignored, though someone did advise me to "keep unspinning the polls"...

    This site has probably been too focused on polls and not enough on politics.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just a thought...where does leave HS2?

    The awkward squad could cause Cameron to have to get Labour on board, and at one point Ed Balls was hinting that Labour's stance on this was changing.

    That's an interesting one. I was very pleased to hear Osborne mention the northern powerhouse in one of his first tweets after being re-elected:

    "A key priority for me will be addressing decades-old economic imbalance in UK by building #NorthernPowerhouse - so we are One Nation"

    This is vital, both for Conservative hopes of a third term and for the country. A key to the powerhouse is the formative HS3. I cannot see HS3 go ahead without HS2, although it would be best if they were planned to work together rather than as separate projects.

    As an aside: HS2 may die, but it will not be directly killed by MPs. If it does die, Euston will be the murder weapon.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    "Research from the LGBT Representation and Rights Research Initiative from the University of North Carolina, found that one more LGBT MP was elected to the Commons today than before dissolution in March."

    why do the University of North Carolina study the number of gay MPs in the Commons?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    calum said:

    antifrank said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh why hello Ladbrokes account. Yes, that is a lot of money in my balance.

    Yes, my Ladbrokes balance earlier had a pleasant number of digits.
    William Hill have finally got round to settling my 0-5 SLAB position - ouch !!
    Bravo for the bet of the election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just a thought...where does leave HS2?

    The awkward squad could cause Cameron to have to get Labour on board, and at one point Ed Balls was hinting that Labour's stance on this was changing.

    I really don't know. Personally I think it's a waste of money, but it would be quite embarrassing for the Tories to ditch it. I also think Crossrail 2 is of little benefit.
    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    Why not both? A third runway at Heathrow to allow for improved contingency (i.e. don't let them fill up all of the extra capacity) and a second runway at Gatwick to increase competition.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
    No it isn't.
    Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
    It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
    During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
    Similar problems in Sussex if they choose Gatwick.

    All businesses and airlines know that Heathrow is the only plausible solution. I reckon Osborne will overrule Boris. But we shall see.
    I do not believe that is true. Individuals I know in the airline industry would much prefer Gatwick because they know that Heathrow will take a lot longer to get the thing built, due to all the delays, compulsory purchases and planning issues involved. Gatwick could do it in ten years.

    The other issue in the mix is that the government has been told by the EU that it needs to meet London pollution limits far faster than it previously thought. Adding substantial airport expansion into Greater London area will make that a lot more expensive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    "Research from the LGBT Representation and Rights Research Initiative from the University of North Carolina, found that one more LGBT MP was elected to the Commons today than before dissolution in March."

    why do the University of North Carolina study the number of gay MPs in the Commons?

    Nothing better to do?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    That's a few London seats gone in the next election then.
    From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
    Yes, but it has to be done. Heathrow is the only sensible choice.
    No it isn't.
    Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
    It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
    During the campaign, Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, majority 23,000 promised to resign and cause a by-election if Heathrow is chosen. He'll probably stand as an independent and win. Tory majority down by 2.
    Similar problems in Sussex if they choose Gatwick.

    All businesses and airlines know that Heathrow is the only plausible solution. I reckon Osborne will overrule Boris. But we shall see.
    It seems Europe and Devolution will not be the only battlefields inside the Tory party, you can add Transportation policy as well, with more to come.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    now this would be worth me losing my yvette bet for...

    BBCSunPolMidlands‏@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
    "I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I saw him on the Beeb earlier - he's everything I detest about champagne socialists who pull up the ladder behind them.

    Being parachuted into Stoke Safe was just the icing on the cake
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    now this would be worth me losing my yvette bet for...

    BBCSunPolMidlands‏@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
    "I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    now this would be worth me losing my yvette bet for...

    BBCSunPolMidlands‏@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
    "I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.

    Labour don't need a piss poor posho in charge. I would presume when Cameron goes, if they are sensible they will replace him with somebody "normal".
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Pulpstar said:

    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.

    They were caught fighting the last war?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    now this would be worth me losing my yvette bet for...

    BBCSunPolMidlands‏@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
    "I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.

    Please let it be true!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    If you can endure it - there's a special Question Time on at 2030 on BBC1. IIRC it's Paddy, Bad Al, Julia Hartley-Brewer and someone else.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr Mulholland is tweeting that the next LD leader has to have voted against tuition fees... I assume he did :wink:

    Now that's the definition of Fighting The Last War.
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.

    They were caught fighting the last war?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Plato said:

    If you can endure it - there's a special Question Time on at 2030 on BBC1. IIRC it's Paddy, Bad Al, Julia Hartley-Brewer and someone else.

    What about Paddy's hat?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When is Hodges streaking?

    Wasn't it supposed to be today, the day after the election? I guess when he saw what was happening at the Cenotaph he thought better of it. Maybe tomorrow? I'm sure Guido will be there with a camera to record the moment!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    now this would be worth me losing my yvette bet for...

    BBCSunPolMidlands‏@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
    "I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.

    Labour never cease to disappoint.

    The Guardian is making for entertaining reading. The Labour --> UKIP voters are being called bigots and are being blamed for losing them seats.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Plato said:

    If you can endure it - there's a special Question Time on at 2030 on BBC1. IIRC it's Paddy, Bad Al, Julia Hartley-Brewer and someone else.

    Not for me.

    GE2015 has finished me off for a few weeks at least
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Some very, very bitter stuff from Polly;

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/general-election-forget-neck-and-neck-this-was-a-terrible-trouncing

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/labour-failure-low-paid-will-suffer
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha! He's so tiresome these days. I can't believe I once voted for him.
    RobD said:

    Plato said:

    If you can endure it - there's a special Question Time on at 2030 on BBC1. IIRC it's Paddy, Bad Al, Julia Hartley-Brewer and someone else.

    What about Paddy's hat?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The myth of the "invincible" Lib Dems has been blown away forever with this Election. When the national tide turns, very few can get in it's way.

    Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!

    Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.

    They were caught fighting the last war?
    Complacency, they all thought that regardless of their national popularity that their local popularity and tactical voting will keep them in place, pollsters like ICM and Lord Ashcroft aided them in their misjudgment.
    It wasn't that long ago earlier in the year that the LD still thought they will have 40 MP's.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting that the unionist vote in Northern Ireland seems to be increasing. Any reason why?

    A long-term demographic change is the rise in the Catholic proportion of the population. But, that's now pretty well run its course. Catholics who are now reasonably well off are opting out of political engagement, like their Protestant counterparts did, a generation ago.

    In addition, the DUP are making a big effort to target socially conservative Catholics, on issues like abortion and gay marriage. I think they're having a degree of success.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scrapheap_as_was

    'following on from sean t last thread

    PBisms never to be seen again:

    1. Great value for toss of a coin.
    2. Pb hodges
    3. Pb tories always wrong and never learn.
    4. Basil
    5. Squirrel
    6. EICIPM
    7. Tick
    8. Tock
    9. TPD
    10. 108 Ukip MPs


    But PBKinnocks to be retained in memory of Tim, IOS ,Surbiton et al ?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Change in vote share compared to 2010 GE for Shadow Cabinet members

    Chuka Umunna +10.2
    Maria Eagle +9.6
    Rosie Winterton+9.4
    Chris Leslie +9.2
    Angela Eagle +8.6
    Lucy Powell +8.5
    Caroline Flint +8.2
    Liz Kendall +8.1
    Michael Dugher +7.7
    Gloria de Piero +7.3
    Yvette Cooper +6.7
    Andy Turnham +5.8
    Rachel Reeves +5.7
    Hilary Benn +5.7
    Ed Miliband +5.1
    Emma Reynolds +4.7
    Ivan Lewis +4.6
    John Trickett +4.6
    Tooting +3.7
    Own Smith +1.9
    Vernon Coaker +1.2
    Mary Creagh +1.0
    Tristram Hunt +0.5
    Ed Balls +0.4

    The figures are obviously influenced by which constituencies they represent (Streatham and Merseyside constituencies have good demographics or social attitudes towards Labour). No leader's boost for EdM given Caroline and Rosie increased by more.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Nick Sparrow's article is quite brilliant.

    That's all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    GIN1138 said:

    Some very, very bitter stuff from Polly;

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/general-election-forget-neck-and-neck-this-was-a-terrible-trouncing

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/labour-failure-low-paid-will-suffer

    I enjoyed reading that. Was surprised to see her away from Italy and in the BBC studios yesterday!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Today's great, keep heading into various different bookie accounts and more money keeps springing up each time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    On Topic.

    Well done Nick for your comments, interesting point that the industry has to say that they either poll properly or not at all, rather than trying to do it cheaply.

    The phone polls were basically right a week or two out but for some reason (that looks from the outside like the pollsters not wanting to embarrass themselves) everything converged on the dead heat in the last 48 hours.

    A few PhD theses will be written about this election, as they were in 1992.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories now have to make that ghastly choice about London airports, all by themselves.

    Osborne wants Heathrow, Boris wants Gatwick.

    I reckon Ozzie will prevail.

    They have to stop pissing about with this. The UK needs more airport capacity and they need to just make the damn decision and get on with it.
    The Economist seems, at times,just to be a series of ads by the Gatwick and Heathrow groups.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I confess the first of several bottles is on the road to empty. For me personally, the biggest win in my punting life. But I think beyond that inconsequence this is a quite stunning result for David Cameron who has re-written everything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Some very, very bitter stuff from Polly;

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/general-election-forget-neck-and-neck-this-was-a-terrible-trouncing

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/labour-failure-low-paid-will-suffer

    oooh. Delicious. I'm gonna pour myself another fat G&T before reading.

    I'm LOVING the lefty anguish. I think this is our version of 1997. Yummy.
    Is Cameron’s scorched-earth social and institutional destruction of the public realm really what the people voted for?

    Left or right, I do enjoy when relentless partisans have no choice but face up to the possibility that most people actually supported the things they think are obviously terrible. I mean, I've been surprised the public seemed to want that too, if that was indeed the main reason (or at least not a reason to vote against), but the pain and confusion of the public just not getting it (from their point of view) must be hard to deal with.
This discussion has been closed.