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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”
The pollsters agreed, it was too close to call, a hung parliament a near certainty. There were even signs in some polls of a swing to Labour over the last few hours and days. Ed looked increasingly confident, Dave a bit dejected. The pollsters polled as late as possible to catch late swing. YouGov re-contacted their final poll sample and found no reason to change their prediction.
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"Cheap polling" with online polls is definitely one of the big problems, but a lot of the phone pollsters haven' exactly covered themselves in glory...
Starting with your old firm ICM whose own boss decided to rubbish the ICM poll which showed a 6% Con lead at the start of the campaign.
A useful,question to start with is why the polls were very good in Scotland but very poor across the UK.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11592907/David-Cameron-should-be-magnanimous-in-victory-but-true-to-himself.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9411
I think that Nick's last paragraph is the crucial one. Somehow they have to find a better sample, so that fewer adjustments are required, and they can rely on the magic of random chance to give them an accurate, if not precise, picture.
Good thirds in Norwich South, albeit on a slightly reduced vote and Holborn which might disintegrate if Natalie goes. Anywhere else? Or is it entirely down to hoping for partial or complete PR?
PBisms never to be seen again:
1. Great value for toss of a coin.
2. Pb hodges
3. Pb tories always wrong and never learn.
4. Basil
5. Squirrel
6. EICIPM
7. Tick
8. Tock
9. TPD
10. 108 Ukip MPs
However Survation says they had a telephone poll in a ballot form that got the result, but I'm skeptical about it given that all phone companies also got it wrong.
The awkward squad could cause Cameron to have to get Labour on board, and at one point Ed Balls was hinting that Labour's stance on this was changing.
With the outcome we got that doesn't really apply, but I hope we remember this in the future and don't rule out people getting a majority so readily.
They have to go back to what they were - Keir Hardies party of the workers. Anything else now leads to them losing second place to UKIP, or the horror that will come after UKIP if it fails.
From now on everything that goes wrong will be the Tories fault not the LD's one.
5 years of banging on about the cuts, the bedroom tax, food banks, and zero-hours contracts is (a) only preaching to the converted and (b) creates shy Tories.
In truth lots of the middle classes have done pretty well out of austerity, but it's not going to be fashionable for them to say so. They might not have had much in the way of nominal pay rises but their mortgage rates have been rock bottom and they haven't lost their jobs.
1. It's probably worth £1000 for everyone in West London and the suburbs to avoid the additional noise. That's almost a billion pounds in lost consumer welfare. It is true people around Gatwick will also be affected, but a tiny fraction.
2. As Conservatives, we should believe in competition. It's a lot better to have two major airports around London, as that would allow passengers and airlines to choose between them, and avoid any one having a monopoly. That will drive up standards.
3. If there's ever freak weather like a snowstorm or volcano smoke, we're not putting all our eggs in one basket by only having one hub airport. Managing capacity between two locations will more likely prevent complete gridlock.
Also consider Hallam - a high profile Lib Dem name against a Labour opponent where honestly the demography of the seat is frankly garbage for Labour and Labour take 35.8% of the vote there ?!
Imo tells you all you need to know about the Lib Dem night.
Also seen Montie and Nelson amongst others out pontificating on what Cammo should do now - no doubt Portillo will too on TW (will Ed B or NP be the new lab voice on the sofa?) having been so wrong in the run up, why should he listen to such sage advice?
get hodges in! Even the much insulted Matt Parris did a lot better.
Heathrow is huge, bloated and dysfunctional, expanding it will make all it's problems worse: traffic, noise, passenger queues, safety ect.
It's better to have a new airport in the countryside or expand one of the smaller London airports.
Whoever made that decision is currently getting a kicking.
Some of us on here were mentioning 1992 months ago (albeit in low voices). Sadly for the pollsters, we were right.
I'm not sure the problem can be accounted for by last-minute changes in voting intention, which some on the TV have been using as an excuse.
>Tom Logan, from Hatfield, said: “I had a list. Check. Check. Check. And check.
“Excuse me while I burst.”
Jane Thomson, from Stevenage, added: “I think Galloway is the best one. And the xxxxxx might get nicked. I’m so happy I’m starting to feel a bit guilty about it.
“Not really.”
Source: DYOR.
ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
In fact he is the epitome of the modern Tory party along with Matthew Parris.
This site has probably been too focused on polls and not enough on politics.
"A key priority for me will be addressing decades-old economic imbalance in UK by building #NorthernPowerhouse - so we are One Nation"
This is vital, both for Conservative hopes of a third term and for the country. A key to the powerhouse is the formative HS3. I cannot see HS3 go ahead without HS2, although it would be best if they were planned to work together rather than as separate projects.
As an aside: HS2 may die, but it will not be directly killed by MPs. If it does die, Euston will be the murder weapon.
why do the University of North Carolina study the number of gay MPs in the Commons?
The other issue in the mix is that the government has been told by the EU that it needs to meet London pollution limits far faster than it previously thought. Adding substantial airport expansion into Greater London area will make that a lot more expensive.
BBCSunPolMidlands@sunpoliticsmids·32 mins32 minutes ago
"I'm ruling nothing in and nothing out" @TristramHuntMP tells @bbcmtd on potential Labour leadership bid.
Being parachuted into Stoke Safe was just the icing on the cake
Now that's the definition of Fighting The Last War.
The Guardian is making for entertaining reading. The Labour --> UKIP voters are being called bigots and are being blamed for losing them seats.
GE2015 has finished me off for a few weeks at least
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/general-election-forget-neck-and-neck-this-was-a-terrible-trouncing
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/labour-failure-low-paid-will-suffer
It wasn't that long ago earlier in the year that the LD still thought they will have 40 MP's.
In addition, the DUP are making a big effort to target socially conservative Catholics, on issues like abortion and gay marriage. I think they're having a degree of success.
'following on from sean t last thread
PBisms never to be seen again:
1. Great value for toss of a coin.
2. Pb hodges
3. Pb tories always wrong and never learn.
4. Basil
5. Squirrel
6. EICIPM
7. Tick
8. Tock
9. TPD
10. 108 Ukip MPs
But PBKinnocks to be retained in memory of Tim, IOS ,Surbiton et al ?
Chuka Umunna +10.2
Maria Eagle +9.6
Rosie Winterton+9.4
Chris Leslie +9.2
Angela Eagle +8.6
Lucy Powell +8.5
Caroline Flint +8.2
Liz Kendall +8.1
Michael Dugher +7.7
Gloria de Piero +7.3
Yvette Cooper +6.7
Andy Turnham +5.8
Rachel Reeves +5.7
Hilary Benn +5.7
Ed Miliband +5.1
Emma Reynolds +4.7
Ivan Lewis +4.6
John Trickett +4.6
Tooting +3.7
Own Smith +1.9
Vernon Coaker +1.2
Mary Creagh +1.0
Tristram Hunt +0.5
Ed Balls +0.4
The figures are obviously influenced by which constituencies they represent (Streatham and Merseyside constituencies have good demographics or social attitudes towards Labour). No leader's boost for EdM given Caroline and Rosie increased by more.
That's all.
Well done Nick for your comments, interesting point that the industry has to say that they either poll properly or not at all, rather than trying to do it cheaply.
The phone polls were basically right a week or two out but for some reason (that looks from the outside like the pollsters not wanting to embarrass themselves) everything converged on the dead heat in the last 48 hours.
A few PhD theses will be written about this election, as they were in 1992.
Left or right, I do enjoy when relentless partisans have no choice but face up to the possibility that most people actually supported the things they think are obviously terrible. I mean, I've been surprised the public seemed to want that too, if that was indeed the main reason (or at least not a reason to vote against), but the pain and confusion of the public just not getting it (from their point of view) must be hard to deal with.