Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser. After the major problems with electoral fraud in postal voting that has happened in Tower Hamlets, I think we need to be going back more to in-the-booth voting, not away from it. No doubt there are many in the Labour party who are pushing this online and text message voting so they can repeat Tower Hamlets style shenanigans in new ways.
I also disagree with votes at 16. The most recent scientific research shows that adolescence is now continuing well into your 20s, so it doesn't make sense to go the other way with the voting age.
That video should be watched by anyone who thinks that electronic, and especially on-line, voting is in any way a good idea. It shows why it is absolute madness given current technology.
This is probably true for the UK right now, but with the caveat that "current technology" here means what the government would actually do, not what we know how to do.
Also it may not be true for all countries/elections/situations; Paper-pencil systems have a lot of serious, known vulnerabilities that have often been exploited at scale, and not all societies are good at mitigating them.
Labours best Scottish sub-sample yet, Lab: 28 SNP: 42, Lib Dems on 9% which is superb for them.
This however, means Tory collapse implosion disaster as they sit on 11%.
David Cameron was truly a visionary and great strategist to make sure the Tories only won one seat in Scotland in 2010.
Saves a hammering this time.
The Scottish sub-samples have uniformly been more favourable to Labour than Scotland specific polling.
I think the obvious answer is the correct one - weighting by 2010 recall understates SNP vote as people recall Holyrood election instead on Westminster election.
Electoral reform is not just about changing how we elect MPs. Let's have votes@16, and a fully elected second chamber. Let's also look into voting online.
Votes at 16 is a stupid idea - we have no real life experience of paying taxes or even uses public services.
It's a stupid idea with large potential for the corruption of results. If you can't be bothered to walk to the polling station then you shouldn't be able to vote.
That video should be watched by anyone who thinks that electronic, and especially on-line, voting is in any way a good idea. It shows why it is absolute madness given current technology.
(Indeed, the whole of Computerphile should be compulsory viewing) ;-)
Totally Agree - I got really frustrated with some Greens who were trying to claim that the Greens were totally a digital party and that there was no need for the Pirates at all - they had all our concerns covered - only for the Green opposition in my seat to warble on about online voting in connection with digital engagement! Total lack of any actual understanding...
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
A few dozen = 36 gains in E+W from Con and LD
If there's 36 losses to the SNP, Lab will stand still. No net gains...
Is the Lab swing in the south skewed by what's happening in London?
That's massive in the South but where is it? UNS will not apply. If it is in LD seats that superb for Tories. If it is in London then that is a blow for the blues. Sarf London is not seeing big shifts to Labour. Maybe pesky Norf. I expect it is in South-West.
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
They're too late. Didn't he have a celebration drinks party last night?
The pink champagne was overflowing at the table of myself, Eagles, Tissue Price, Nick, Tyson and Roger. The red flag was flying high. Was like a Moscow rally in the USSR heyday.
Conservative modernisers learnt the wrong lessons from the New Labour modernisers: that rejecting core policy tenants, embracing presentationism and shunning your traditional base was the way to win.
The problems of the two main parties were and are different:
Labour have always had a strong brand, but they had a serious competence and credibility problem, and were viewed as too tribal, ideological and in hock to the unions. The Conservatives have generally been seen as competent and patriotic but also hard-headed, interested chiefly in the rich, agnostic about the public services, out-of-touch and arrogant. However, a lot of Conservative policies when polled (and not branded with their name) proved fairly popular.
It's therefore pretty clear to me that the modernisation project for the Conservative party should have been different to the Labour one. But that judgement proved beyond the intelligence of the core band of modernisers at the heart of the Conservative party who embraced the New Labour hymn book belt & braces.
Now, both main parties have alienated swathes of their traditional bases, and turbo-charged political cynicism across the board.
Well done.
If it wasn't for UKIP though, the Tories would be cruising to a majority and we wouldn't even be having the above discussion.
That's not remotely certain. My grandfather is a lifelong Labour voter disgusted by Blair who's voting UKIP. Its hubristic to assign one view to all.
Small sample but of the 6 people I know voting Ukip in Hornchurch and Upminster, 5 are ex labour and only 1 was a Tory
I would expect UKIP to come second in Hornchurch & Upminster with about 25-30%, their best showing in Greater London. Romford would be better except Andrew Rosindell hoovers up most potential UKIP support.
I agree... No evidence for it really but I think most people round here are too comfortable to really shake things up. I might have a small bet at 12/1 on Ukip as the only boards up are Ukip, the majority of people I know are voting for them, and my system made it a possible, but is a probable loser
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
This story about postal votes is odd because they're supposed to remain secret until the count begins. I don't know how people are able to say which way they're "trending":
This has been around for a few days and needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt.
However the various parties do have a pretty good idea as to how the postal votes in each constituency are panning out. Nothing untoward as long as no one starts broadcasting their knowledge.
Basically as the postal votes arrive they need to be verified to check that the signature of the person to whom the ballot paper has been issued matches the one on the returned form. The outer envelope is open and the signature checked and then the second envelope is opened and the ballot paper is placed face down on the pile.
Each candidate is allowed to have an observer at each of these sessions (there will be a number over the two weeks prior to election day). Even though the front of the ballot cant be seen it is perfectly possible to make an accurate guess as to the vote on many of the ballots (felt tip or pen shows through). Even though tally sheets or similar are not allowed at verification counts it is perfectly possible to make useful sample counts. You simply count the number of papers where you can identify a mark and out of those which you can identify as yours.
This way you can get a reasonably accurate indication of your vote lets say out of the 100 papers you could identify with a vote 35 had your party on, this would indicate about 35% support for your party.
These details should not be divulged to anyone outside of the verification room although in practice the info is sent to party HQ.
However quite what this info means is another matter. As was pointed out here when this first came up a few days ago, in the last London assembly elections the tories "won" the postal votes in most constituencies (in these elections a breakdown of ward and postal votes is published afterwards) however in most cases the tories lost the overall vote, so the amount of real info gleaned from this sort of thing is pretty minimal.
That would require an intelligent initiative from the Electoral Commission.
Some really interesting seats on that list, but on some of them UKIP would probably need around 40% to win - eg in Christchurch - and I think they're unlikely to get 40% anywhere except Clacton. Hartlepool is particularly interesting, because I could see that being won with 35% or less, and there are two independents and a hospital candidate to make eight in total.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Where do you get the information from about Labour not making headway in the marginals?
Someone said postals are always tory but thats not what this is suggesting.
I reckon its gonna be a bloodbath … for the pollsters. Bet they try and weasel it into last minute swings and all that but it won't be. Its cos the sampling on both phone and online is up the creak. Just my view & could me thats totally wrong but no sense at all the country is gonna vote out Cameron.
Labour-ites in my area are spilling beans on postal votes. They've said that the expectation they had has not been met. They said that Tory's exceeding expectations. And they said it was a national picture. Of course, this could all be b*llocks but I believe they are struggling. The number of voters per constituency will be down because of IVR, and I am sure that is gonna hurt Labour.
Additionally, the blues have told me where the marginals are today based on their stats and they are not where I expected. IE, Labour are not piling up he votes they thought they would in close seats...apparently. Of course, the real vote is the only one that counts but Labour's depression is a real one, not mock.
if what you say is true we could be looking at 1992 again
It's my opinion about tomorrow so not fact. Hopefully it is 1992 all over again, Dodgy hairstyles, big trainers and waist high jeans!
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
A few dozen = 36 gains in E+W from Con and LD
If there's 36 losses to the SNP, Lab will stand still. No net gains...
Nick Palmer getting mightily close to my ARSE ....
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
That's the point.
Irrelevant to me. It's the enabling of voter intimidation and fraud that's the killer.
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
Electoral reform is not just about changing how we elect MPs. Let's have votes@16, and a fully elected second chamber. Let's also look into voting online.
Votes at 16 is a stupid idea - we have no real life experience of paying taxes or even uses public services.
It's a stupid idea with large potential for the corruption of results. If you can't be bothered to walk to the polling station then you shouldn't be able to vote.
That video should be watched by anyone who thinks that electronic, and especially on-line, voting is in any way a good idea. It shows why it is absolute madness given current technology.
(Indeed, the whole of Computerphile should be compulsory viewing) ;-)
Totally Agree - I got really frustrated with some Greens who were trying to claim that the Greens were totally a digital party and that there was no need for the Pirates at all - they had all our concerns covered - only for the Green opposition in my seat to warble on about online voting in connection with digital engagement! Total lack of any actual understanding...
Anecdote: I regularly speak to a friend who lives near Windermere. He's being saying he'll vote UKIP for the past three years. Then it was Labour last month based on their Minimum Wage Pledge. When he discovered how little it really meant , he became undecided.
Not going to watch the video, because I've long since been dead against e-voting. It seems proposed largely by 'trendy' airhead politicians like Bercow who wouldn't know common sense if it struck them repeatedly across the face.
The ignorance of politicians about technology and the internet is staggering. I'm a luddite. Excepting my olde Kindle e-reader [and the PS4, but that's purely for gaming], my desktop is my only online device. But even I can spot the glaring problems with the EU VAT nonsense, Cameron's deranged encryption folly, and the concept of e-voting.
It does make me wonder if they're really that stupid, or they just don't care.
Sky reporting that Ed Miliband is being hidden away from public and press this morning to avoid any "Gillian Duffy" moments.
Intellectual self-confidence in abundance...
Just this morning? He has spent the whole campaigning doing just that...dragging that lectern around Labour supporters back gardens up and down the country.
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
That's the point.
Irrelevant to me. It's the enabling of voter intimidation and fraud that's the killer.
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
It's for those two reasons that postal votes should be limited as well.
The funniest result of all this tactical voting would be if the Scottish Tories save a few SLAB/SLID MPs and the LibDems turn round and do a deal with Labour - the law of unintended consequences. The worst part is that the SNP's support would likely still be required.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
I am not convinced. I think a Tory core vote agenda would have been as unsuccessful as it was under Hague or Howard. The Conservatives chose Cameron for the same reason that Blair won the Labour contest in 94. They were sick of losing elections.
I am not a Cameron fan, but can see why he was needed.
Tony Blair thought the Conservatives could win from the right.
I don't see anything in UKIP's platform that would have repelled Mrs T.
Tony Blair was not always correct!
Also, Tony replaced a constitutional settlement that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
I agree with Southam when he says:
"We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad. “
We can only hope that out of a very messy election, there are enough MPs of real stature to re-configure the UK.
The present settlement is rancid, and engendering massive resentment in Scotland, England & Wales.
Endured for 300 years? Did Ireland never happen in your world?
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
didn't you know SOubry has given up - speaking to people on the doorstep Nick has noticed no great enthusiasm but a few people have said 'we should give Miliband a try' and tories he meets all say what a great MP he was
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
That's the point.
Irrelevant to me. It's the enabling of voter intimidation and fraud that's the killer.
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
The booth doesn't fix the intimidation problem any more, everybody has small, portable cameras.
I have decided to vote tactically tomorrow as the party I would support has no chance, but I do wish to try to keep a disastrous party from winning.
Interesting to hear the comments early this morning on both ITV and BBC about the large number of undecided/DNK who could decide this GE - that is if they do turn out and vote, or in the end just cant be bothered.
Not sure if the SNP have peaked too early and may not steamroller all. Could be tactical voting in the non-Lab seats in Scotland. Also expect the LDs to do better than many predict.
The GE outcome could be sterile and requiring another GE soon. If that happens would it be under a form of PR and would the SNP retain their vote?
Will not be surprised if HSBC to move their HQ to Hong Kong and they could be followed in moving out of London by Standard Chartered and similar others whose major business is outside the UK. This would lose revenue to HMG and influence to the City of London. Our banks need sensible regulation and not penal taxation - but those espousing the politics of envy never learn.
Unfortunately the banks and the rich have not trickled down the benefit of recovery. Lending is still moribund and the recovery cash is still in their pockets. It's not politics of envy, it's the politics of anger. It's time to smash the corporations, basically, and they did it to themselves
Sooner the robbing gits decamp to elsewhere the better.
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
That's the point.
Irrelevant to me. It's the enabling of voter intimidation and fraud that's the killer.
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
It's for those two reasons that postal votes should be limited as well.
Absolutely agree, limit it to those who are registered disabled. To allow people to vote who may be absent for other reasons (travel, etc) then have the system whereby you need to register that fact, but you must go to a secure polling station to cast your vote ahead of time.
E-voting would increase the problems of postal voting ten-fold.
The funniest result of all this tactical voting would be if the Scottish Tories save a few SLAB/SLID MPs and the LibDems turn round and do a deal with Labour - the law of unintended consequences. The worst part is that the SNP's support would likely still be required.
No endorsement for Murphy from the Mail tactical team, he'll be disappointed.
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
didn't you know SOubry has given up - speaking to people on the doorstep Nick has noticed no great enthusiasm but a few people have said 'we should give Miliband a try' and tories he meets all say what a great MP he was
Morning all and nice to see a comment I made yesterday becoming a post today.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
They're too late. Didn't he have a celebration drinks party last night?
The pink champagne was overflowing at the table of myself, Eagles, Tissue Price, Nick, Tyson and Roger. The red flag was flying high. Was like a Moscow rally in the USSR heyday.
It was a fab night, thanks to everyone who turned up
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
didn't you know SOubry has given up - speaking to people on the doorstep Nick has noticed no great enthusiasm but a few people have said 'we should give Miliband a try' and tories he meets all say what a great MP he was
If you'd canvassed there, KingB, you'd be surprised how accurate that little portrayal turned out to be.
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
LOL. It's impossible to design an e-voting system using current technology that isn't utterly retarded.
That's the point.
Irrelevant to me. It's the enabling of voter intimidation and fraud that's the killer.
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
The booth doesn't fix the intimidation problem any more, everybody has small, portable cameras.
Oh come off it, even in total privacy people can be intimidated to vote one way or another. Polling stations may not eliminate the problem, but they reduce the issue hugely.
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
Didn’t the Plaid take Caerphilly BC some time ago, for a while?
Yeah, but they are miles off in the GE. Plaid seem to have a ceiling in Wales and struggle to get above it. South East Wales is not very Plaid at all, picking up votes mainly among the people who went to Welsh school (you won't get a cruder political analysis than that).
It'll be Labour all the way, although there are signs in these historic Labour communities (just as in Scotland) that people are realising that Labour take these seats for granted. There has been some vitriol towards Wayne David on social media over ignorance and reneged promises. But I guess all sitting MPs get that, whatever the party.
Amomng my Family Histtory artefacts I’ve a certficate showing that my father studied (inter alia) Welsh at Caerphilly Secondary School 1923-8!
Wow, your Dad may have known Tommy Cooper! He was a Caerphilly* boy.
I went to Lewis Boys, the same school that Neil Kinnock went to. I suspect it was a far more rigorous grammar school in his day than it was a scuzzy comp during my time there. I enjoyed it though - a proper all valleyboys school.
*Caerphilly Castle is the most taken-for-granted, amazing place. I pass it often, as do most of us Caerphilly borough folk, and take little notice of it. I pushed the kids round there in a pram the other day and spoke to American, Canadian and Japanese tourists all on the same Saturday morning. Sometimes we don't realise how amazing our country is.
Morning all and nice to see a comment I made yesterday becoming a post today.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
Imaginge if a party confined themselves to jut 59 seats say and polled 5% nationwide.Now ...
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
didn't you know SOubry has given up - speaking to people on the doorstep Nick has noticed no great enthusiasm but a few people have said 'we should give Miliband a try' and tories he meets all say what a great MP he was
You can't blame a chap for trying ....
And we all feel the same about you and your ARSE, Young Jack.
The funniest result of all this tactical voting would be if the Scottish Tories save a few SLAB/SLID MPs and the LibDems turn round and do a deal with Labour - the law of unintended consequences. The worst part is that the SNP's support would likely still be required.
No endorsement for Murphy from the Mail tactical team, he'll be disappointed.
At least the DM is being rather more 'useful' than the DT's online tac voting advisor in Scotland - which seemed to give the invariant, and in the circs gloriously counterproductive, answer 'anybody but the SNP'.
Voting online would be a big mistake, in my opinion. Considering how much bank fraud occurs, the system could easily be hacked. But because of the secret ballot, you wouldn't be able to monitor the system to see when it has or has not been hacked, so epic electoral fraud could happen with no-one being the wiser.
This is only true if, like paying online with credit cards, your system design is utterly retarded. Sadly, it probably would be.
Are you suggesting it is possible to make an unhackable system? Or are you suggesting it is possible to monitor unexpected and innovative hacks? Who would be able to monitor if votes have been changed, while still maintaining the secrecy of the vote?
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person, which makes me wonder why you put so much effort into cultivating the online persona of a total cock.
Morning all and nice to see a comment I made yesterday becoming a post today.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
Party 1 has 28% in all seats; Parties 2, 3, and 4 have 24% in all seats. Clean sweep. More absurd scenarios are of course possible.
Mr. G, they'll take their tax revenue with them. And jobs.
There is always work for the industrious Morris, and the sooner we liberate the working men and women of the UK from global corporate yoke, the sooner we can forge ahead, together. Small businesses and small people are the backbone of a small and enduring state.
If Crosby is predicting just 300 seats for the Tories then the true picture must be way under.
My guess is he'd estimate high, but not so high as to risk his credibility.
280?
About 285 is where I'm currently at. I think it's perfectly plausible that the Tories could have a 3% lead in the vote following the close of polls tomorrow.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
One of these days in a fit of Divine retribution the Good Lord, ahem will whisper in Farron's ear that, He, the Good Lord himself is actually you know, gay.
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person,k.
Gawd we've had some outlandish predictions on here recently but that one takes the biscuit. .
One of these days in a fit of Divine retribution the Good Lord, ahem will whisper in Farron's ear that, He, the Good Lord himself is actually you know, gay.
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
May I just say, to cheer you up if not in fact, CON gain Westmoreland
If Crosby is predicting just 300 seats for the Tories then the true picture must be way under.
My guess is he'd estimate high, but not so high as to risk his credibility.
280?
About 285 is where I'm currently at. I think it's perfectly plausible that the Tories could have a 3% lead in the vote following the close of polls tomorrow.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
285 was my figure in a private prediction contest I have had with one of PB's punting legends. (Not Roger).
A fairly local (North East Hampshire) UKIP candidate has threatened to assassinate the Tory candidate if they ever become Prime Minister. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32595003 And I also notice from a link in the Independent article that Ian Brady (the Moors Murderer) supports UKIP.
One of these days in a fit of Divine retribution the Good Lord, ahem will whisper in Farron's ear that, He, the Good Lord himself is actually you know, gay.
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
May I just say, to cheer you up if not in fact, CON gain Westmoreland
Far better off taking Lib Dem 0-10 seats if you honestly think that will happen.
If Crosby is predicting just 300 seats for the Tories then the true picture must be way under.
My guess is he'd estimate high, but not so high as to risk his credibility.
280?
About 285 is where I'm currently at. I think it's perfectly plausible that the Tories could have a 3% lead in the vote following the close of polls tomorrow.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
I would like to point out the economic indicators model has been pointing to a 2/3 point lead for the governing party, it has been doing so for months, polls have tracked that shift. Of course it can be off by a point or so, thus is better as a direction of travel indicator, but it is looking good.
If Crosby is predicting just 300 seats for the Tories then the true picture must be way under.
My guess is he'd estimate high, but not so high as to risk his credibility.
280?
About 285 is where I'm currently at. I think it's perfectly plausible that the Tories could have a 3% lead in the vote following the close of polls tomorrow.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
IF the phones are right, then a small swing in the booth and certainty to vote factors might see a 5 point lead, with increased vote efficiency thanks to UKIP in the South and SW. FWIW I'm on 35.5 to 32 Con to Lab
Anecdote: I regularly speak to a friend who lives near Windermere. He's being saying he'll vote UKIP for the past three years. Then it was Labour last month based on their Minimum Wage Pledge. When he discovered how little it really meant , he became undecided.
He's now going to vote for Tim Farron...
Yes Mad, good to see you back on PB.com ...... once a most prolific poster here but sadly no longer so.
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person,k.
Gawd we've had some outlandish predictions on here recently but that one takes the biscuit. .
Strangely most of the keyboard commandos I've met in real life don't come across anywhere as mouthy, as they do on line.
One of these days in a fit of Divine retribution the Good Lord, ahem will whisper in Farron's ear that, He, the Good Lord himself is actually you know, gay.
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
May I just say, to cheer you up if not in fact, CON gain Westmoreland
Far better off taking Lib Dem 0-10 seats if you honestly think that will happen.
Farron isn't going anywhere.
I did say if not in fact! Lamb might have an interesting night in North Norfolk though
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person,k.
Gawd we've had some outlandish predictions on here recently but that one takes the biscuit. .
Strangely most of the keyboard commandos I've met in real life don't come across anywhere as mouthy, as they do on line.
Talking about yourself?
Do you graphically describe abortions to people who ask you to stop using them as a metaphor in real life too? Nice guy
Conservative modernisers learnt the wrong lessons from the New Labour modernisers: that rejecting core policy tenants, embracing presentationism and shunning your traditional base was the way to win.
The problems of the two main parties were and are different:
Labour have always had a strong brand, but they had a serious competence and credibility problem, and were viewed as too tribal, ideological and in hock to the unions. The Conservatives have generally been seen as competent and patriotic but also hard-headed, interested chiefly in the rich, agnostic about the public services, out-of-touch and arrogant. However, a lot of Conservative policies when polled (and not branded with their name) proved fairly popular.
It's therefore pretty clear to me that the modernisation project for the Conservative party should have been different to the Labour one. But that judgement proved beyond the intelligence of the core band of modernisers at the heart of the Conservative party who embraced the New Labour hymn book belt & braces.
Now, both main parties have alienated swathes of their traditional bases, and turbo-charged political cynicism across the board.
Well done.
If it wasn't for UKIP though, the Tories would be cruising to a majority and we wouldn't even be having the above discussion.
But UKIP were there, and were up-and-coming when the modernisers took over. They won 16% of the vote in the 2004 Euro elections for instance. The problem the modernisers have is they felt they needed to go out of their way to insult their working class voters in order to appeal to middle class professionals. Much more balance was needed.
Comes down to Scotland, about which I have no clue. We will win a few dozen seats in England and Wales, in my opinion. If the Scottish result is a bit better than meltdown, we should have most seats (if it's a lot better then we're looking at a majority, but I really doubt that), but I'd like to see more than subsamples to bear out that hope.
I'll ask again Nick, to no avail previously ....apparently you must have been busy , but after 10pm tomorrow will you post your projection for your result ?
didn't you know SOubry has given up - speaking to people on the doorstep Nick has noticed no great enthusiasm but a few people have said 'we should give Miliband a try' and tories he meets all say what a great MP he was
If you'd canvassed there, KingB, you'd be surprised how accurate that little portrayal turned out to be.
Morning all and nice to see a comment I made yesterday becoming a post today.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
Imaginge if a party confined themselves to jut 59 seats say and polled 5% nationwide.Now ...
Precisely, although if the SNP stood in London, I'd vote for them in my own economic interests.
I'm wondering what else might emerge along the same lines now that vote share means nothing.
Because we now have
Tories voting LD to keep out Lab Tories voting UKIP to keep out Lab UKIP voting Lab to avoid an EU referendum UKIP voting anything to avoid Lab LD voting Tory or Lab to keep out Lab or Tory SLAB voting SNP to get weak Labour WLAB voting PC for the same reason
We now seem to have definitively reached a point of total unfathomability. As someone said upthread, the polls have served their purpose and are of no further use.
Mr. G, they'll take their tax revenue with them. And jobs.
There is always work for the industrious Morris, and the sooner we liberate the working men and women of the UK from global corporate yoke, the sooner we can forge ahead, together. Small businesses and small people are the backbone of a small and enduring state.
A large number of small businesses rely on trade with the larger corporations. So let's remove all aircraft, arms, vehicle and steel, manufacture plus oil and gas companies from the UK, as well as large retailers and banks - are you suggesting going back to the time when every village had its own farmer, bootmaker, butcher, etc?
I don't recall any discussion about swingback this election.
Was it Rod Crosby who promoted the theory and what are his views this election?
BRING BACK SWINGBACK.
Red certainly predicted Swingback.
I questioned him about it recently and he said it had already happened. I'm not entirely convinced. I suppose it depends when and where you draw the line, but make your mind up on that.
He definitely predicted a Conservative Overall Majority and advised backing it at prices as low as 5/1. No doubt he will be along to apologise shortly.
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person,k.
Gawd we've had some outlandish predictions on here recently but that one takes the biscuit. .
Strangely most of the keyboard commandos I've met in real life don't come across anywhere as mouthy, as they do on line.
Talking about yourself?
Do you graphically describe abortions to people who ask you to stop using them as a metaphor in real life too? Nice guy
The use of the word abortion was entirely valid in the context I used it. What really upset you was it was true.
Edinburgh West going LibDem according to SNPOut. Any brave souls who want to rely on this bunch can get 11/2 with WH.
twitter.com/SNPOut/status/595872191322976258
Oh my days. If all the Unionist voters vote tactically in Scotland, we will have 9 (nine) Scottish Tory MPs
Yes, but they all have to use the official 'Pouter* list/wheel, of which there have been four or more versions to date, if memory serves ... and that also implies the Labour and LDs all vote Tory ...
*as in SNPout and most certainly not Mr Compouter (to whom apologies)
The funniest result of all this tactical voting would be if the Scottish Tories save a few SLAB/SLID MPs and the LibDems turn round and do a deal with Labour - the law of unintended consequences. The worst part is that the SNP's support would likely still be required.
No endorsement for Murphy from the Mail tactical team, he'll be disappointed.
They're all confused ever since the SNP told everyone they share Tory values, concerns and priorities.
Edinburgh West going LibDem according to SNPOut. Any brave souls who want to rely on this bunch can get 11/2 with WH.
twitter.com/SNPOut/status/595872191322976258
Oh my days. If all the Unionist voters vote tactically in Scotland, we will have 9 (nine) Scottish Tory MPs
Yes, but they all have to use the official 'Pouter* list/wheel, of which there have been four or more versions to date, if memory serves ... and that also implies the Labour and LDs all vote Tory ...
*as in SNPout and most certainly not Mr Compouter (to whom apologies)
One of these days in a fit of Divine retribution the Good Lord, ahem will whisper in Farron's ear that, He, the Good Lord himself is actually you know, gay.
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
May I just say, to cheer you up if not in fact, CON gain Westmoreland
“Which bit of the sanctimonious god-bothering treacherous little shit is there not to like?”
Morning all and nice to see a comment I made yesterday becoming a post today.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
Imaginge if a party confined themselves to jut 59 seats say and polled 5% nationwide.Now ...
Precisely, although if the SNP stood in London, I'd vote for them in my own economic interests.
I'm wondering what else might emerge along the same lines now that vote share means nothing.
Because we now have
Tories voting LD to keep out Lab Tories voting UKIP to keep out Lab UKIP voting Lab to avoid an EU referendum UKIP voting anything to avoid Lab LD voting Tory or Lab to keep out Lab or Tory SLAB voting SNP to get weak Labour WLAB voting PC for the same reason
We now seem to have definitively reached a point of total unfathomability. As someone said upthread, the polls have served their purpose and are of no further use.
If Crosby is predicting just 300 seats for the Tories then the true picture must be way under.
My guess is he'd estimate high, but not so high as to risk his credibility.
280?
About 285 is where I'm currently at. I think it's perfectly plausible that the Tories could have a 3% lead in the vote following the close of polls tomorrow.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
Then there's the prospect of differential turnout which may assist the Blues. There are likely to be fewer "Shy Tories" this time though, with the so-called LibDems' share of the vote so much lower, where else would they hide ..... UKIP? I hardly think so.
Conservative modernisers learnt the wrong lessons from the New Labour modernisers: that rejecting core policy tenants, embracing presentationism and shunning your traditional base was the way to win.
The problems of the two main parties were and are different:
Labour have always had a strong brand, but they had a serious competence and credibility problem, and were viewed as too tribal, ideological and in hock to the unions. The Conservatives have generally been seen as competent and patriotic but also hard-headed, interested chiefly in the rich, agnostic about the public services, out-of-touch and arrogant. However, a lot of Conservative policies when polled (and not branded with their name) proved fairly popular.
It's therefore pretty clear to me that the modernisation project for the Conservative party should have been different to the Labour one. But that judgement proved beyond the intelligence of the core band of modernisers at the heart of the Conservative party who embraced the New Labour hymn book belt & braces.
Now, both main parties have alienated swathes of their traditional bases, and turbo-charged political cynicism across the board.
Well done.
If it wasn't for UKIP though, the Tories would be cruising to a majority and we wouldn't even be having the above discussion.
But UKIP were there, and were up-and-coming when the modernisers took over. They won 16% of the vote in the 2004 Euro elections for instance. The problem the modernisers have is they felt they needed to go out of their way to insult their working class voters in order to appeal to middle class professionals. Much more balance was needed.
The Tories lost a lot of their working class vote after I992. UKIP may just get some of it back.
SNP have fought by far the best campaign and will reap the rewards accordingly. They might hit the big FIVE O.
The Tory rhetoric in this election is probably the finish of the union if they win. If they lose the Cameron goes and the union is finished with bonkers Boris.
If he gets half a chance Milliband will deal with the SNP or if that gets to embarrassing someone else will. Milliband has received credit in this campaign for basically just tripping but not falling over on loiuve television. Strategically his campaign has been totally inept. His blurting nonsense in the TV debate has taken him from heavy odds on to be Prime Minister to no better than evens.
The Fib Dems are unlikely to be a factor if they lose a substantial number of seats because the rest will just want to survive. Clegg will likely hold on but then be removed while Danny Alexander is toast and will supply the moment of the evening which most reasonable people will celebrate. He will then join the Tories where he belongs and next time stand for a south of England seat.
Complete piffle about Danny Alexander, he is not a Conservative but he comes across as a very decent guy, when your Scottish heads are above the parapet working with Eddie you will become unpopular very quickly just like the Liberals.
Alexander comes across like the lying weaselly creep that he is. Self seeking uselesss numpty.
I'm sure in person you are a perfectly nice person,k.
Gawd we've had some outlandish predictions on here recently but that one takes the biscuit. .
Strangely most of the keyboard commandos I've met in real life don't come across anywhere as mouthy, as they do on line.
Talking about yourself?
Do you graphically describe abortions to people who ask you to stop using them as a metaphor in real life too? Nice guy
The use of the word abortion was entirely valid in the context I used it. What really upset you was it was true.
Hit anyone recently?
No what upset me was when I asked you not to use it, you graphically described an abortion
I guess I don't vote for the party you like so anything is fair game
Only hit one person in 25 years and he deserved it
Comments
I also disagree with votes at 16. The most recent scientific research shows that adolescence is now continuing well into your 20s, so it doesn't make sense to go the other way with the voting age.
Also it may not be true for all countries/elections/situations; Paper-pencil systems have a lot of serious, known vulnerabilities that have often been exploited at scale, and not all societies are good at mitigating them.
I think the obvious answer is the correct one - weighting by 2010 recall understates SNP vote as people recall Holyrood election instead on Westminster election.
If there's 36 losses to the SNP, Lab will stand still. No net gains...
Are suburban southern Liberals different to London ones?
These are the people putting Lab in front in Hove according to Ashcroft.
That's the point.
Think of physical voting as an effective lazy filter.
Intellectual self-confidence in abundance...
#GE2015
In a booth, on your own, with a pencil. If it ain't broke, etc, etc.
I regularly speak to a friend who lives near Windermere. He's being saying he'll vote UKIP for the past three years. Then it was Labour last month based on their Minimum Wage Pledge. When he discovered how little it really meant , he became undecided.
He's now going to vote for Tim Farron...
The ignorance of politicians about technology and the internet is staggering. I'm a luddite. Excepting my olde Kindle e-reader [and the PS4, but that's purely for gaming], my desktop is my only online device. But even I can spot the glaring problems with the EU VAT nonsense, Cameron's deranged encryption folly, and the concept of e-voting.
It does make me wonder if they're really that stupid, or they just don't care.
Boo hiss to Farron!
On TNS: as you were. I'll wait and see what the others say before trying to guess what it means come polling day.
E-voting would increase the problems of postal voting ten-fold.
I am wondering if we are going to get some kind of surprise on Friday morning. A poll share of 33% would win you 420 seats if 1/ you only contested 420 seats and 2/ all of your 33% were distributed across just those. 33% of all votes would be 51% of the vote in 420 seats, more or less.
This won't happen, of course, but it's arithmetically possible and therefore so must much else be.
I went to Lewis Boys, the same school that Neil Kinnock went to. I suspect it was a far more rigorous grammar school in his day than it was a scuzzy comp during my time there. I enjoyed it though - a proper all valleyboys school.
*Caerphilly Castle is the most taken-for-granted, amazing place. I pass it often, as do most of us Caerphilly borough folk, and take little notice of it. I pushed the kids round there in a pram the other day and spoke to American, Canadian and Japanese tourists all on the same Saturday morning. Sometimes we don't realise how amazing our country is.
Keep going, mate. You may get it right one day.
Anything more than that now looks too much of a stretch. Unless the polls really are wrong and/or there is a last minute swing to the Tories in the booths.
http://order-order.com/2015/05/06/loony-labour-candidates-15-second-eu-turn/
All those careful moves to be away from the House at times of votes on anything to do with gay rights, so as not have to vote in line with LibDem policy or abstain and either offend his evangelical conscience or disappoint the party.
The man's a total wazzok but by Friday I'll have to face the idea of five more years of his picture in the pages of my Westmorland Gazette opening yet another envelope
.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32595003
And I also notice from a link in the Independent article that Ian Brady (the Moors Murderer) supports UKIP.
https://twitter.com/SNPOut/status/595872191322976258
Farron isn't going anywhere.
FWIW I'm on 35.5 to 32 Con to Lab
NW swing > Yorkshire swing too.
Was it Rod Crosby who promoted the theory and what are his views this election?
BRING BACK SWINGBACK.
Lamb might have an interesting night in North Norfolk though
Do you graphically describe abortions to people who ask you to stop using them as a metaphor in real life too? Nice guy
I'm wondering what else might emerge along the same lines now that vote share means nothing.
Because we now have
Tories voting LD to keep out Lab
Tories voting UKIP to keep out Lab
UKIP voting Lab to avoid an EU referendum
UKIP voting anything to avoid Lab
LD voting Tory or Lab to keep out Lab or Tory
SLAB voting SNP to get weak Labour
WLAB voting PC for the same reason
We now seem to have definitively reached a point of total unfathomability. As someone said upthread, the polls have served their purpose and are of no further use.
I questioned him about it recently and he said it had already happened. I'm not entirely convinced. I suppose it depends when and where you draw the line, but make your mind up on that.
He definitely predicted a Conservative Overall Majority and advised backing it at prices as low as 5/1. No doubt he will be along to apologise shortly.
My own apologies will appear here on May 8th.
Angus and Nicola might not be Tooooo displeased if one of the results goes that way though
Hit anyone recently?
*as in SNPout and most certainly not Mr Compouter (to whom apologies)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tim-farron-the-next-leader-of-the-lib-dems-8943174.html
I guess I don't vote for the party you like so anything is fair game
Only hit one person in 25 years and he deserved it