Following my lunchtime chat yesterday with a Conservative source I shall be tapping into the LibDem team later this morning and I'll report back this afternoon.
Labour won't win Watford - that's as far as I'm going to predict !
You never know .... Ed landslide ....
What landslide? Ed buried under limestone possibly...
Daily Mail tactical guide - Seems judging by the comments people hate being told what to do !
They might still do it though
A lot of the comments look like Kippers. Probably, as far as Heil readers are concerned, it’s somethingn for next time. At least the Heil is recognising the severe limitations of FPTP in a multi-party system!
Following my lunchtime chat yesterday with a Conservative source I shall be tapping into the LibDem team later this morning and I'll report back this afternoon.
Labour won't win Watford - that's as far as I'm going to predict !
You never know .... Ed landslide ....
What landslide? Ed buried under limestone possibly...
Most uncharitable if not terminal for Ed ....
Perhaps Ed buried under a landslide of bacon sarnies ?
Daily Mail tactical guide - Seems judging by the comments people hate being told what to do !
They might still do it though
A lot of the comments look like Kippers. Probably, as far as Mail readers are concerned, it’s somethingn for next time. At least the Heil is recognising the severe limitations of FPTP in a multi-party system!
Cameron's car crash interview with Humphreys revealed his phoney character in such an effective way. Cameron's trick of repeating his hackneyed mantra about job creation and Labour's failings just didn't work. What a joker!
I remain to be convinced that tactical voting is going to make that much difference this time.
In Scotland, the SNP swing is so enormous that tactical voting is unlikely to make much difference even if it is on an unprecedented scale.
Outside Scotland, we seem to be seeing quite a lot of untactical voting, with many people opting to vote for the Greens or UKIP even if they won't get elected to make a point about (to?) the other parties.
There are hints that for the first time Conservative supporters are considering tactical voting. But outside Sheffield Hallam and East Renfrewshire, those hints are fairly sparse. And they may be counteracted in part by Labour supporters being less inclined to lend their votes to the Lib Dems.
National vote totals are likely to be not particularly useful less because of increased tactical voting and more because uniform national swing doesn't work very well when one party has crashed in the polls and two more have risen dramatically. As to how it all plays out in practice, I remain of the view that no one really knows.
Following my lunchtime chat yesterday with a Conservative source I shall be tapping into the LibDem team later this morning and I'll report back this afternoon.
Labour won't win Watford - that's as far as I'm going to predict !
You never know .... Ed landslide ....
What landslide? Ed buried under limestone possibly...
Most uncharitable if not terminal for Ed ....
Perhaps Ed buried under a landslide of bacon sarnies ?
Best get off to work. Looking forward to your supersised ARSE tonight, though it does look as static as a YouGov poll...
Saudi war on Yemen going well. With Pakistan having politely double crossed the Saudis by refusing to send troops, even after all that money sent to Pakistani military, there is really not much stop the Houthis linking up with Shias in the SW Saudi provinces.
Following my lunchtime chat yesterday with a Conservative source I shall be tapping into the LibDem team later this morning and I'll report back this afternoon.
Labour won't win Watford - that's as far as I'm going to predict !
You never know .... Ed landslide ....
What landslide? Ed buried under limestone possibly...
Most uncharitable if not terminal for Ed ....
Perhaps Ed buried under a landslide of bacon sarnies ?
Best get off to work. Looking forward to your supersised ARSE tonight, though it does look as static as a YouGov poll...
I think the phrase you've struggled to find is :
"JackW's ARSE is as constant, enduring and wondrous as the stars in the sky."
Cameron's car crash interview with Humphreys revealed his phoney character in such an effective way. Cameron's trick of repeating his hackneyed mantra about job creation and Labour's failings just didn't work. What a joker!
The consistent polling position for the Greens has been the big surprise of the campaign for me, despite being nuttier than squirrel poo they've stood up at 5% quite well.
My entire position on here over the past month has been, the polling industry is sophisticated and should be trusted re the Labour position, yet me gut screams at me the Green one is wrong.
Saudi war on Yemen going well. With Pakistan having politely double crossed the Saudis by refusing to send troops, even after all that money sent to Pakistani military, there is really not much stop the Houthis linking up with Shias in the SW Saudi provinces.
Oil ticking up.
Why should Pakistan embroil itself in another Middle East war? It is one thing to send troops to do the guard of honour; another to let your own boys die in another country.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
I am not convinced. I think a Tory core vote agenda would have been as unsuccessful as it was under Hague or Howard. The Conservatives chose Cameron for the same reason that Blair won the Labour contest in 94. They were sick of losing elections.
I am not a Cameron fan, but can see why he was needed.
Tony Blair thought the Conservatives could win from the right.
I don't see anything in UKIP's platform that would have repelled Mrs T.
Tony Blair was not always correct!
He defeated two Conservative campaigns led from the right. He may well have relished a further one.
He won his elections, so he's a fair judge of what can/cannot work.
The quote comes from an internal Labour Party memo, so he was evaluating scenarios, not trying to steer Conservative Party strategy.
"Their right isn’t like our left. They believe they can win from the right in a way Labour could never do from the left and they are correct in that"
Definitely. But as yet the numbers are lower. Some of them are transfers from LD all of whom might not have come to Labour.
The Green vote has been interesting in a marginal. We have lots of people who quite fancy them - some Labour, a few Tories and many former Libdems looking for a new Red Liberal home. The intensive canvassing has helped us spot them and at a individual level they have nearly all come round but of course not everyone has been canvassed. I'd guess they'll only get a modest score here, but the potential in any kind of PR system is much higher.
As a matter of interest, are most marginal seats doing telling? We're only doing it in particularly strong wards and otherwise throwing everyone into knocking up. If someone says they've voted we will believe them - what else can one do?
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
I am not convinced. I think a Tory core vote agenda would have been as unsuccessful as it was under Hague or Howard. The Conservatives chose Cameron for the same reason that Blair won the Labour contest in 94. They were sick of losing elections.
I am not a Cameron fan, but can see why he was needed.
Tony Blair thought the Conservatives could win from the right.
I don't see anything in UKIP's platform that would have repelled Mrs T.
Tony Blair was not always correct!
Also, Tony replaced a constitutional settlement that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
I agree with Southam when he says:
"We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad. “
We can only hope that out of a very messy election, there are enough MPs of real stature to re-configure the UK.
The present settlement is rancid, and engendering massive resentment in Scotland, England & Wales.
At least you can believe in Miliband, Cameron sounds so utterly false. His pumped- up , sleeve rolling persona is a frantic attempt to signify that he is energetic after 5 years of coasting. I'm surprised that Tory Humphreys managed to demolish Cameron's unauthentic shell. Goodbye Cameron.
I take it Mike that the Com Res last night is the one that was in your table for today and it has just come out a few hours early ?
If so today is about ICM. If the tories are to have any chance of having the most seats it will need to show a lead of at least 5, tactical voting or no.
I don't think that's correct, DavidL. If ICM have the Tories on a lead of 5+ then that translates to the Conservatives being comfortably above 300 seats.
To win most seats, the Tories need a GB lead of at least 2% IMHO. A 3% ICM lead would give real confidence of this today.
Mr. Cwsc, I quite agree with you, and Mr. Observer.
Blair's a ****ing idiot. And some of us have pointed out the stupidity of refusing to ask, let alone answer, the West Lothian Question for years, and now it's coming to bite the parties on the backside.
Ruth Davidson is hoping to get 500K votes in Scotland but I think this ambition is going to be highly prone to this phenomenon with Tory voters voting tactically for Labour in Murphy's seat, some of the Edinburgh seats, Gordon and Inverness like never before.
The argument about whether our electoral system is broken is really over. The debate is surely what replaces it.
You still need to get 500 turkeys to vote for Christmas.
What we need is a constitutional convention to look at the entire UK-wide settlement, including the voting system. The chances of getting one are close to zero. There are too many interests on all sides only to willing to put party before country. And that could well lead to the break-up of the UK.
While I agree that a Constitutional Convention is needed, I cannot see our current politicians delivering it. If they did convene such a meeting then I would expect a dogs breakfast.
We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad.
The theoretical arguments against asymmetric devolution are now about to become very real.
Sometimes ruling castes are prepared to set aside self-interest in the face of a greater danger, but it's rare.
I suppose that if one takes the view that it would be best that UK stayed together then one could say that: 1. A proportional voting system (e.g STV) would limit the extent of the SNP success, which FPTP exaggerates. 2. The avoidance of a referendum on leaving the European Union would be a good thing, since Scotland is very much in favour of remaining in the EU. So, if you are in favour of the union, you should hope for a Miliband victory. He is against leaving the EU and theoretically at least in favour of electoral reform.
Neither Lab nor Con are in favour of electoral reform. I can't imagine the SNP would be either when winning 90-100% of Scottish seats on 45%-50% of the vote. The LDs will have much reduced leverage this time around and no guarantee any government would get this through.
Cameron's car crash interview with Humphreys revealed his phoney character in such an effective way. Cameron's trick of repeating his hackneyed mantra about job creation and Labour's failings just didn't work. What a joker!
If only he was as good as Ed, eh?
The trouble for a lot of voters is there is barely a fag paper between the parties, and neither has a positive message, preferring to heed the advice of their expensive political consultants to "go negative" rather than follow the example of the SNP who almost achieved independence and is hoping for a clean sweep with its promise to lead Scots to the sunlit uplands.
At least you can believe in Miliband, Cameron sounds so utterly false. His pumped- up , sleeve rolling persona is a frantic attempt to signify that he is energetic after 5 years of coasting. I'm surprised that Tory Humphreys managed to demolish Cameron's unauthentic shell. Goodbye Cameron.
Why do I know I can believe in Miliband ?
5 years ago, he campaigned against the mansion tax when it was in his brother’s manifesto for the Labour leadership.
I do wonder whether Dave M will ever be able to forgive his brother if he becomes PM
For the record, I am not a disgruntled Dave M supporter -- but I can see why he might feel enormous resentment about what has happened.
Definitely. But as yet the numbers are lower. Some of them are transfers from LD all of whom might not have come to Labour.
The Green vote has been interesting in a marginal. We have lots of people who quite fancy them - some Labour, a few Tories and many former Libdems looking for a new Red Liberal home. The intensive canvassing has helped us spot them and at a individual level they have nearly all come round but of course not everyone has been canvassed. I'd guess they'll only get a modest score here, but the potential in any kind of PR system is much higher.
As a matter of interest, are most marginal seats doing telling? We're only doing it in particularly strong wards and otherwise throwing everyone into knocking up. If someone says they've voted we will believe them - what else can one do?
The way you talk about, I'd be surprised if Anna Soubry is going to get any votes at all.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
No he wouldn't.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
I am not convinced. I think a Tory core vote agenda would have been as unsuccessful as it was under Hague or Howard. The Conservatives chose Cameron for the same reason that Blair won the Labour contest in 94. They were sick of losing elections.
I am not a Cameron fan, but can see why he was needed.
Tony Blair thought the Conservatives could win from the right.
I don't see anything in UKIP's platform that would have repelled Mrs T.
Tony Blair was not always correct!
Also, Tony replaced a constitutional settlement that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
I agree with Southam when he says:
"We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad. “
We can only hope that out of a very messy election, there are enough MPs of real stature to re-configure the UK.
The present settlement is rancid, and engendering massive resentment in Scotland, England & Wales.
Endured for 300 years? Did Ireland never happen in your world?
Cameron's car crash interview with Humphreys revealed his phoney character in such an effective way. Cameron's trick of repeating his hackneyed mantra about job creation and Labour's failings just didn't work. What a joker!
If only he was as good as Ed, eh?
The trouble for a lot of voters is there is barely a fag paper between the parties
In Islington South & Finsbury I have so far spotted two boards: one Labour, one Green. Both were outside properties that would be hit by the mansion tax.
I have decided to vote tactically tomorrow as the party I would support has no chance, but I do wish to try to keep a disastrous party from winning.
Interesting to hear the comments early this morning on both ITV and BBC about the large number of undecided/DNK who could decide this GE - that is if they do turn out and vote, or in the end just cant be bothered.
Not sure if the SNP have peaked too early and may not steamroller all. Could be tactical voting in the non-Lab seats in Scotland. Also expect the LDs to do better than many predict.
The GE outcome could be sterile and requiring another GE soon. If that happens would it be under a form of PR and would the SNP retain their vote?
Will not be surprised if HSBC to move their HQ to Hong Kong and they could be followed in moving out of London by Standard Chartered and similar others whose major business is outside the UK. This would lose revenue to HMG and influence to the City of London. Our banks need sensible regulation and not penal taxation - but those espousing the politics of envy never learn.
Eve of Poll SUPER ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes
Is that a Boeing 777 or an Airbus?
A Comet ....
The only comets allowed are UKIP ones. As of old they threaten change. BTW I have a local seer looking at chickens entrails this morning: should be good as it was an organic one.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
I am not convinced. I think a Tory core vote agenda would have been as unsuccessful as it was under Hague or Howard. The Conservatives chose Cameron for the same reason that Blair won the Labour contest in 94. They were sick of losing elections.
I am not a Cameron fan, but can see why he was needed.
Tony Blair thought the Conservatives could win from the right.
I don't see anything in UKIP's platform that would have repelled Mrs T.
Tony Blair was not always correct!
Also, Tony replaced a constitutional settlement that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
I agree with Southam when he says:
"We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad. “
We can only hope that out of a very messy election, there are enough MPs of real stature to re-configure the UK.
The present settlement is rancid, and engendering massive resentment in Scotland, England & Wales.
Endured for 300 years? Did Ireland never happen in your world?
Fair point. I guess 1801 to 1922 is 121 years. Let me have another go.
Tony replaced a constitutional settlement on this island that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
A tiny majority isn't completely outside the realms of possibility but it would require no Con-Lab marginals to change hands, Con to storm LD seats and unionist tactical voting in Scotland delivering them are few, all of which are fairly unlikely in themselves.
I have decided to vote tactically tomorrow as the party I would support has no chance, but I do wish to try to keep a disastrous party from winning.
Interesting to hear the comments early this morning on both ITV and BBC about the large number of undecided/DNK who could decide this GE - that is if they do turn out and vote, or in the end just cant be bothered.
Not sure if the SNP have peaked too early and may not steamroller all. Could be tactical voting in the non-Lab seats in Scotland. Also expect the LDs to do better than many predict.
The GE outcome could be sterile and requiring another GE soon. If that happens would it be under a form of PR and would the SNP retain their vote?
Will not be surprised if HSBC to move their HQ to Hong Kong and they could be followed in moving out of London by Standard Chartered and similar others whose major business is outside the UK. This would lose revenue to HMG and influence to the City of London. Our banks need sensible regulation and not penal taxation - but those espousing the politics of envy never learn.
Unfortunately the banks and the rich have not trickled down the benefit of recovery. Lending is still moribund and the recovery cash is still in their pockets. It's not politics of envy, it's the politics of anger. It's time to smash the corporations, basically, and they did it to themselves
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
No he wouldn't.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
If you're right and Metropolitan Conservative voters won't vote for a socially conservative party, and socially conservative voters won't vote for a Cameron-type Conservative Party, then it's clear that the Conservative Party won't win an overall majority again. That's why both factions need to support electoral reform.
A tense couple of days ahead. All my bets are in: I've planted my flag heavily in a Lab minority or coalition plus some LibDems, Green and UKIP constituency bets. This is mainly on the basis of the likely arithmetic and current polls. If the shy Tory/DK suddenly flock to the polling booths on Thursday and stick with Cameron then I'm stuffed (or rather my wallet won't be).
I think arguing that election system needs fixing is wrong. Every system favours one party or another at one time or another. People change their votes tactically to ensure victory for their party. No party can complain at losing if they simply don't get 50% of the vote. Tories have best policies but are useless at communicating them. Labour are opposite..scum of the earth.
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
I think the next Welsh Assembly elections could be an important one for the Kippers.
With the right leadership and the right strategy, they could clean up in certain places.
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
There's a certain liberation about living in a safe seat. You can use your vote more creatively.
I'm still humming and hawing between voting for the Lib Dems as an expression of enthusiasm for the idea of coalitions (and reflecting the fact that I think the Lib Dems have made a surprisingly good job of a thankless role) and voting for the Greens as I have been wont to do recently to encourage the larger parties to consider the single most important topic facing humanity at present.
The antifrank vote is on a knife-edge. Islington South & Finsbury is not.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
A tiny majority isn't completely outside the realms of possibility but it would require no Con-Lab marginals to change hands, Con to storm LD seats and unionist tactical voting in Scotland delivering them are few, all of which are fairly unlikely in themselves.
Not true. Tories can still win an outright majority if they lose 15 marginals to Labour. Think their gonna do much better than that though. Net Con-Lab marginals +- 5 seats.
For tory majority this elections also about Con-LD marginals
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Heard Milliband's vacuous plea for votes this morning before I left the house.
"stop the NHS going backwards" was one of them
So, we dont need 24 hours to save the NHS now?
Don't remember too many Mid Staff's in the last five years either.
The more I think about it the more incredulous I am that enough of my fellow countrymen might think that Labour are the answer to our many problems (despite causing a fair number of them themselves).
Hi everyone. Shameful plug alert. Thanks to everyone that listened to Polling Matters with Mike and I last week. The latest one, with Rob Ford from Uni of Manchester, is up now. We talked UKIP campaign, 'legitimate governments' and what happens after Thursday. Check it out http://kpedley.podbean.com/
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
There's a certain liberation about living in a safe seat. You can use your vote more creatively.
I'm still humming and hawing between voting for the Lib Dems as an expression of enthusiasm for the idea of coalitions (and reflecting the fact that I think the Lib Dems have made a surprisingly good job of a thankless role) and voting for the Greens as I have been wont to do recently to encourage the larger parties to consider the single most important topic facing humanity at present.
The antifrank vote is on a knife-edge. Islington South & Finsbury is not.
I agree on the Lib Dems - history will judge them far better than the current electorate will.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
No he wouldn't.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
If you're right and Metropolitan Conservative voters won't vote for a socially conservative party, and socially conservative voters won't vote for a Cameron-type Conservative Party, then it's clear that the Conservative Party won't win an overall majority again. That's why both factions need to support electoral reform.
I disagree entirely. It's the economy, stupid.
Cameron was on course for a majority and I think would have achieved it until he had to start talking about austerity which was never going to be popular. Too many debt deniers in this country which explains the popularity of both Wonga and Labour. The sharing the proceeds of growth line was a good one that could win a majority in the right circumstances.
Regarding certain small c conservative issues some once dealt with will never be relevant again. Immigration is a permanent issue that's a nightmare to tackle effectively and has complicated knock on effects that immigration opponents tend to ignore. But some issues like gay rights once resolved aren't coming back into the political debates. That matter is over and nobody is even going to try to reverse it so it won't be swinging any future votes.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Where do you get the information from about Labour not making headway in the marginals?
Mr. Thompson, worth recalling how crap the media were.
Labour just said 'we have a deficit reduction plan' and the media failed to probe with incisive questions such as 'What is it?'
All parties lack detail this time, but they do have at least vague notions (no tax rises from the Conservatives, slower decline of the deficit for Labour etc). In 2010 there was nothing, and the media was too busy wetting itself over TV debates to get any detail at all.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
I'd imagine that the aggregated canvasing data goes in front of a very small number of eyeballs; it's basic OpSec process.
Are you claiming to have seen it and being sharing it on here? Big claim to make without serious bona fides. Nothing in your previous posting suggests you'd be in a position to see this information. Those that have don't talk
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
On the other hand there was a huge swing from Labour to the LDs in Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney in 2010 and also in Pontypridd which reduced the Labour majority to levels no-one was expecting. It shows that very safe seats can become less safe.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
A tiny majority isn't completely outside the realms of possibility but it would require no Con-Lab marginals to change hands, Con to storm LD seats and unionist tactical voting in Scotland delivering them are few, all of which are fairly unlikely in themselves.
Not true. Tories can still win an outright majority if they lose 15 marginals to Labour. Think their gonna do much better than that though. Net Con-Lab marginals +- 5 seats.
For tory majority this elections also about Con-LD marginals
Scotlands totally irrelevant.
How? They sit on 303 currently - assuming that Con outs Reckless but another Kipper replaces him that's still 303. Then if they pick up ~25 (v.high) Lib Dem seats they are at 328 - the gains in Scotland (if there are any) then have to balance out an more than 3 losses in E&W for them to stay at that level.
Scotland represents the Tories only chance of gains due to the radical realignment that has taken place.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Where do you get the information from about Labour not making headway in the marginals?
Someone said postals are always tory but thats not what this is suggesting.
I reckon its gonna be a bloodbath … for the pollsters. Bet they try and weasel it into last minute swings and all that but it won't be. Its cos the sampling on both phone and online is up the creak. Just my view & could me thats totally wrong but no sense at all the country is gonna vote out Cameron.
@carrieapples: Ed Miliband on @5live: Q: "Who's idea was #EdStone?" EM: "It wasn't my idea"
Great leadership that.....Is that how he is going to be as PM when something backfires, well it wasn't my idea...but you announced that policy Ed....I know, but it wasn't my idea.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
A tiny majority isn't completely outside the realms of possibility but it would require no Con-Lab marginals to change hands, Con to storm LD seats and unionist tactical voting in Scotland delivering them are few, all of which are fairly unlikely in themselves.
Not true. Tories can still win an outright majority if they lose 15 marginals to Labour. Think their gonna do much better than that though. Net Con-Lab marginals +- 5 seats.
For tory majority this elections also about Con-LD marginals
Scotlands totally irrelevant.
How? They sit on 303 currently - assuming that Con outs Reckless but another Kipper replaces him that's still 303. Then if they pick up ~20 Lib Dem seats they are at 323 - the gains in Scotland (if there are any) then have to equal the losses in E&W for them to stay at that level
Theres gonna be a good 30-40 LD seats that won't be LD seats any more on Friday & they aint all going labour.
Con gains from lab? I'm looking at both Southampton, Halifax, BALLS, Derby North, Telford, Dumfries and Galloway with interest and for fun Edinburgh South and East Lothian in case the SNP surge causes hilarity in Scotland
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
No he wouldn't.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
If you're right and Metropolitan Conservative voters won't vote for a socially conservative party, and socially conservative voters won't vote for a Cameron-type Conservative Party, then it's clear that the Conservative Party won't win an overall majority again. That's why both factions need to support electoral reform.
I disagree entirely. It's the economy, stupid.
Cameron was on course for a majority and I think would have achieved it until he had to start talking about austerity which was never going to be popular. Too many debt deniers in this country which explains the popularity of both Wonga and Labour. The sharing the proceeds of growth line was a good one that could win a majority in the right circumstances.
Regarding certain small c conservative issues some once dealt with will never be relevant again. Immigration is a permanent issue that's a nightmare to tackle effectively and has complicated knock on effects that immigration opponents tend to ignore. But some issues like gay rights once resolved aren't coming back into the political debates. That matter is over and nobody is even going to try to reverse it so it won't be swinging any future votes.
There'll always be flashpoint issues. Immigration is ongoing, as you say. There's the EU, defence, overseas aid, freedom of speech, the enforcement of equality and diversity, the environment etc. which are likely to be contentious.
There's no point me even voting tactically tomorrow. My vote counts for virtually nothing.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
Didn’t the Plaid take Caerphilly BC some time ago, for a while?
48 hours away from Dan Hodges, Jack W and others receiving a large dollop of egg on their collective faces. The Tories have blown it, with a negative campaign lacking vision and with clear signs of them losing the vital ground war following the defection of many of their most committed activists to Ukip. Ukip voters are also clearly not switching back in anything like the numbers needed to save them. The Lib Dems will want to re-establish their identity and will pull away from backing a party that I'd estimate has an evens chance of obtaining fewer seats than Labour - something I'll be betting on today.
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
It does feel that way. What I thought was interesting was no real rebuttal re the Labour Uncut / Staggers articles - you would have expected a party spokesperson to at least brief off the record that the articles were pap.
Still think were heading either for a Tory-LD (DUP) coalition Mk2 or an outright tory majority. Sneaking feeling its gonna be the second of those. Seems none else agrees!
A tiny majority isn't completely outside the realms of possibility but it would require no Con-Lab marginals to change hands, Con to storm LD seats and unionist tactical voting in Scotland delivering them are few, all of which are fairly unlikely in themselves.
Not true. Tories can still win an outright majority if they lose 15 marginals to Labour. Think their gonna do much better than that though. Net Con-Lab marginals +- 5 seats.
For tory majority this elections also about Con-LD marginals
Scotlands totally irrelevant.
How? They sit on 303 currently - assuming that Con outs Reckless but another Kipper replaces him that's still 303. Then if they pick up ~25 (v.high) Lib Dem seats they are at 328 - the gains in Scotland (if there are any) then have to balance out an more than 3 losses in E&W for them to stay at that level.
Scotland represents the Tories only chance of gains due to the radical realignment that has taken place.
The way the Conservatives can gain a majority is if they start picking off Lab-Con marginals. The way they would do this is not by straight Lab-Con switchers but by Lab 2010 voters either deciding not to turn up this time because they are not inspired by Ed or switching to other parties. Since the Conservative vote seems the most solid / motivated, they can pick up seats just by standing still if Labour cannot get the numbers out it did last time. I think there are a few constituencies this could happen, even if Lab can get the benefit of some Red LDs
I have decided to vote tactically tomorrow as the party I would support has no chance, but I do wish to try to keep a disastrous party from winning.
Interesting to hear the comments early this morning on both ITV and BBC about the large number of undecided/DNK who could decide this GE - that is if they do turn out and vote, or in the end just cant be bothered.
Not sure if the SNP have peaked too early and may not steamroller all. Could be tactical voting in the non-Lab seats in Scotland. Also expect the LDs to do better than many predict.
The GE outcome could be sterile and requiring another GE soon. If that happens would it be under a form of PR and would the SNP retain their vote?
Will not be surprised if HSBC to move their HQ to Hong Kong and they could be followed in moving out of London by Standard Chartered and similar others whose major business is outside the UK. This would lose revenue to HMG and influence to the City of London. Our banks need sensible regulation and not penal taxation - but those espousing the politics of envy never learn.
Unfortunately the banks and the rich have not trickled down the benefit of recovery. Lending is still moribund and the recovery cash is still in their pockets. It's not politics of envy, it's the politics of anger. It's time to smash the corporations, basically, and they did it to themselves
So with a debt-laden country and many banks having to be propped up by HMG - what do you propose?
This GE crystallised in one (slightly paraphrased due to memory) quote from my pub 'This government has done ok, but I'm not seeing much benefit. UKIP talk the talk but you vote for them and you risk that Miliband getting in. How can anyone even think of voting for him?'
Interesting that some people on here think Labour are putting out negative message to get activists motivated. They wouldn't do that. Their data is sacrosanct and they are bloody good at it. They really aren't making headway in the marginals according to their data. 1% swing is what I expect at most. Libs are cock a hoop that they can save up to 35 seats. Only time will tell but 260 is the best Miliband can hope for.
Where do you get the information from about Labour not making headway in the marginals?
Someone said postals are always tory but thats not what this is suggesting.
I reckon its gonna be a bloodbath … for the pollsters. Bet they try and weasel it into last minute swings and all that but it won't be. Its cos the sampling on both phone and online is up the creak. Just my view & could me thats totally wrong but no sense at all the country is gonna vote out Cameron.
Labour-ites in my area are spilling beans on postal votes. They've said that the expectation they had has not been met. They said that Tory's exceeding expectations. And they said it was a national picture. Of course, this could all be b*llocks but I believe they are struggling. The number of voters per constituency will be down because of IVR, and I am sure that is gonna hurt Labour.
Additionally, the blues have told me where the marginals are today based on their stats and they are not where I expected. IE, Labour are not piling up he votes they thought they would in close seats...apparently. Of course, the real vote is the only one that counts but Labour's depression is a real one, not mock.
Seems to me the only way Ed Miliband is going to become PM is with a informal "rainbow coalition" agreement between Lab, SNP, PC, SDLP, Greens. Those five parties might just be able to reach 323 seats if they have a good night.
Whilst I think Dave has actually been a really good PM, I think as a politician he has basically failed. Imagine where we'd be if the UKIP phenomenon had simply never happened. If Dave had been more Maggielike and championed the conservative (small c) core vote. The Tories would be 15 points ahead in the polls and heading for a huge majority. Metrosexual Dave split the right. That he's nonetheless ahead in the polls is frankly amazing. Not sure it'll save him though.
No he wouldn't.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
If you're right and Metropolitan Conservative voters won't vote for a socially conservative party, and socially conservative voters won't vote for a Cameron-type Conservative Party, then it's clear that the Conservative Party won't win an overall majority again. That's why both factions need to support electoral reform.
I disagree entirely. It's the economy, stupid.
Cameron was on course for a majority and I think would have achieved it until he had to start talking about austerity which was never going to be popular. Too many debt deniers in this country which explains the popularity of both Wonga and Labour. The sharing the proceeds of growth line was a good one that could win a majority in the right circumstances.
The Conservatives have had five years to make a positive case for smaller government, and change public opinion. They haven't even attempted it.
Labour are all over this seat in full force; spoken to the campaign, who've said the feedback and support is "very strong". Julian Brazier has a majority of 6,000 - came close to losing the seat during the landslide of '97. But, I've never seen the Labour party so active in Canterbury - more so the Tories.
Tories are toxic here, especially due to the actions of the council.
Of course, I'm suggesting Labour will take the seat but it will be interesting to see what happens.
Comments
Perhaps Ed buried under a landslide of bacon sarnies ?
I noticed that Janet Daley's last article about nothing very controversial had 3500 comments within a day.
In Scotland, the SNP swing is so enormous that tactical voting is unlikely to make much difference even if it is on an unprecedented scale.
Outside Scotland, we seem to be seeing quite a lot of untactical voting, with many people opting to vote for the Greens or UKIP even if they won't get elected to make a point about (to?) the other parties.
There are hints that for the first time Conservative supporters are considering tactical voting. But outside Sheffield Hallam and East Renfrewshire, those hints are fairly sparse. And they may be counteracted in part by Labour supporters being less inclined to lend their votes to the Lib Dems.
National vote totals are likely to be not particularly useful less because of increased tactical voting and more because uniform national swing doesn't work very well when one party has crashed in the polls and two more have risen dramatically. As to how it all plays out in practice, I remain of the view that no one really knows.
Saudi war on Yemen going well. With Pakistan having politely double crossed the Saudis by refusing to send troops, even after all that money sent to Pakistani military, there is really not much stop the Houthis linking up with Shias in the SW Saudi provinces.
Oil ticking up.
"JackW's ARSE is as constant, enduring and wondrous as the stars in the sky."
My entire position on here over the past month has been, the polling industry is sophisticated and should be trusted re the Labour position, yet me gut screams at me the Green one is wrong.
Normally, it's "if there was a general election tomorrow.. how would you vote A, B, C or D?"
Well, ahem, there is a general election tomorrow.
So do they change the question?
(PS. I recognise most publishing today will have finished their fieldwork by yesterday)
The quote comes from an internal Labour Party memo, so he was evaluating scenarios, not trying to steer Conservative Party strategy.
"Their right isn’t like our left. They believe they can win from the right in a way Labour could never do from the left and they are correct in that"
http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/viewer.html?doc=202593-doc27
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/8566987/Labour-coup-The-Ed-Balls-files-database.html
As a matter of interest, are most marginal seats doing telling? We're only doing it in particularly strong wards and otherwise throwing everyone into knocking up. If someone says they've voted we will believe them - what else can one do?
I agree with Southam when he says:
"We have a voting system and a constitutional settlement that are both actively accelerating the break-up of the UK. Yet we do not have a political class willing to put aside party advantage to come up with something better. It is very sad. “
We can only hope that out of a very messy election, there are enough MPs of real stature to re-configure the UK.
The present settlement is rancid, and engendering massive resentment in Scotland, England & Wales.
Q: "Who's idea was #EdStone?"
EM: "It wasn't my idea"
@MrHarryCole: "It makes the bacon sandwich look like good PR" says 5Live. "Ohhhh thank you very much" says Ed.
To win most seats, the Tories need a GB lead of at least 2% IMHO. A 3% ICM lead would give real confidence of this today.
Blair's a ****ing idiot. And some of us have pointed out the stupidity of refusing to ask, let alone answer, the West Lothian Question for years, and now it's coming to bite the parties on the backside.
1. They haven't yet!
2. They won't!
Cease yer belly aching and get on with it.
I've seen 10 Greens, 2 Tories, 1 LD, 1 Lab, 1 UKIP
It's a Tory seat.
5 years ago, he campaigned against the mansion tax when it was in his brother’s manifesto for the Labour leadership.
I do wonder whether Dave M will ever be able to forgive his brother if he becomes PM
For the record, I am not a disgruntled Dave M supporter -- but I can see why he might feel enormous resentment about what has happened.
What makes you think that economically Conservative but socially liberal or as you put it Metrosexual voters would have still voted Conservative if Cameron had been small c conservative?
Let's not forget that Cameron followed a losing series of small c conservative leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard and was elected on a modernisation agenda specifically campaigning in 2005 to NOT be what you propose.
1. They haven't yet!
2. They won't!
;-)
Interesting to hear the comments early this morning on both ITV and BBC about the large number of undecided/DNK who could decide this GE - that is if they do turn out and vote, or in the end just cant be bothered.
Not sure if the SNP have peaked too early and may not steamroller all. Could be tactical voting in the non-Lab seats in Scotland. Also expect the LDs to do better than many predict.
The GE outcome could be sterile and requiring another GE soon. If that happens would it be under a form of PR and would the SNP retain their vote?
Will not be surprised if HSBC to move their HQ to Hong Kong and they could be followed in moving out of London by Standard Chartered and similar others whose major business is outside the UK. This would lose revenue to HMG and influence to the City of London. Our banks need sensible regulation and not penal taxation - but those espousing the politics of envy never learn.
What do we have today? ICM, ComRes, Populus, Survation, Panelbase and YouGov?
With the final MORI and Ashcrofts tomorrow morning?
Well done to our local (Lib Dem) Councillor whose efforts on Facebook have pushed her out of the Lib Dem column and into the blues.
BTW I have a local seer looking at chickens entrails this morning: should be good as it was an organic one.
Perhaps a Scottish Viscount in a tartan livery.
Tony replaced a constitutional settlement on this island that had endured for 300 years with one that looks as though it may not even endure 30 years.
It wouldn't matter in my constituency (Caerphilly) if everyone in my village didn't bother voting. Labour would still win.
We haven't seen one candidate from any party. I have received just two leaflets - one Plaid and one Tory and there are hardly any signs up from the main parties. There are a few Labour signs dotted around Bargoed (harder core, mining town up there...) but other than it is just UKIP. Newly eager Kippers appear more willing to display their allegiance than the other part supporters.
I think the Kippers will increase their vote share in Wales, without actually winning anything. They'll take the protest votes which the Libs took last time.
But nobody will be waiting up anxiously for the Caerphilly count, sadly.
A tense couple of days ahead. All my bets are in: I've planted my flag heavily in a Lab minority or coalition plus some LibDems, Green and UKIP constituency bets. This is mainly on the basis of the likely arithmetic and current polls. If the shy Tory/DK suddenly flock to the polling booths on Thursday and stick with Cameron then I'm stuffed (or rather my wallet won't be).
With the right leadership and the right strategy, they could clean up in certain places.
breakable according to Lucyunbreakable stone!I'm still humming and hawing between voting for the Lib Dems as an expression of enthusiasm for the idea of coalitions (and reflecting the fact that I think the Lib Dems have made a surprisingly good job of a thankless role) and voting for the Greens as I have been wont to do recently to encourage the larger parties to consider the single most important topic facing humanity at present.
The antifrank vote is on a knife-edge. Islington South & Finsbury is not.
For tory majority this elections also about Con-LD marginals
Scotlands totally irrelevant.
The offending Councillor isn't standing for parliament and IIRC Bob Russell has personally helped your family.
"stop the NHS going backwards" was one of them
So, we dont need 24 hours to save the NHS now?
Don't remember too many Mid Staff's in the last five years either.
The more I think about it the more incredulous I am that enough of my fellow countrymen might think that Labour are the answer to our many problems (despite causing a fair number of them themselves).
Cameron was on course for a majority and I think would have achieved it until he had to start talking about austerity which was never going to be popular. Too many debt deniers in this country which explains the popularity of both Wonga and Labour. The sharing the proceeds of growth line was a good one that could win a majority in the right circumstances.
Regarding certain small c conservative issues some once dealt with will never be relevant again. Immigration is a permanent issue that's a nightmare to tackle effectively and has complicated knock on effects that immigration opponents tend to ignore. But some issues like gay rights once resolved aren't coming back into the political debates. That matter is over and nobody is even going to try to reverse it so it won't be swinging any future votes.
Labour just said 'we have a deficit reduction plan' and the media failed to probe with incisive questions such as 'What is it?'
All parties lack detail this time, but they do have at least vague notions (no tax rises from the Conservatives, slower decline of the deficit for Labour etc). In 2010 there was nothing, and the media was too busy wetting itself over TV debates to get any detail at all.
Are you claiming to have seen it and being sharing it on here? Big claim to make without serious bona fides. Nothing in your previous posting suggests you'd be in a position to see this information. Those that have don't talk
Scotland represents the Tories only chance of gains due to the radical realignment that has taken place.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/
Someone said postals are always tory but thats not what this is suggesting.
I reckon its gonna be a bloodbath … for the pollsters. Bet they try and weasel it into last minute swings and all that but it won't be. Its cos the sampling on both phone and online is up the creak. Just my view & could me thats totally wrong but no sense at all the country is gonna vote out Cameron.
I'm looking at both Southampton, Halifax, BALLS, Derby North, Telford, Dumfries and Galloway with interest and for fun Edinburgh South and East Lothian in case the SNP surge causes hilarity in Scotland
http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/12932667.Nick_Clegg_visits_Kendal_and_vows_that_Lib_Dems_will_get_more_seats_than_expected/
'This government has done ok, but I'm not seeing much benefit. UKIP talk the talk but you vote for them and you risk that Miliband getting in. How can anyone even think of voting for him?'
Q.E.D the pub has spoken
Additionally, the blues have told me where the marginals are today based on their stats and they are not where I expected. IE, Labour are not piling up he votes they thought they would in close seats...apparently. Of course, the real vote is the only one that counts but Labour's depression is a real one, not mock.
Labour are all over this seat in full force; spoken to the campaign, who've said the feedback and support is "very strong". Julian Brazier has a majority of 6,000 - came close to losing the seat during the landslide of '97. But, I've never seen the Labour party so active in Canterbury - more so the Tories.
Tories are toxic here, especially due to the actions of the council.
Of course, I'm suggesting Labour will take the seat but it will be interesting to see what happens.