Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a gov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government
Please note the terms of the bet, Applies to the date of the Queen’s first invitation to form a government. Person first invited may or may not go on to form a government. Invitation counts even if an exploratory commission is accepted. PP decision final.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I shall build a monument to my achievement.
Depends on what government we get. I can't see a Lab / Lib coalition so getting a lab minority together shouldn't be to hard.
47.12% and 82.83%
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?s_Name=sean+thomas
There is a 'Prime Minister' - who is David Cameron, until he decides otherwise, or loses a vote in the HoC that 'This House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government' (or words to the effect under the FPTA).....
Some VERY rattled lefties about today.
Some Scots Tories (I think DavidL was among them) predicted very much this.
And some of us (moi) were rubbished by OGH for pointing out consistently good SNP subsamples in YouGov, post SindyRef....
I'm thinking it will take Ed a few days at least to get things in order for his government, and Cameron won't wait for a vote but until he sees Ed has not messed up his negotiations with the SNP. Call it 4-5 working days.
....I'll get my coat....
For all the discussion on the constitutional processes over the past few days on here, the consensus was that Dave remains PM and the government in place until he goes to the Queen to resign. If he doesn't resign then his government will deliver the Queen's Speech, I don't see where in that process the Queen asks him to form a government? Too ambiguous, no bet.
Travelled a couple of miles through suburban town today; passing detached houses, semis, and flats.
One Conservative poster.
Two Labour posters.
Don't they know there's an election on?
I'd be laughing it off, but very let down inside...
Anyway, must be off.
On the politics, I don't think Cameron's going to want to hang around like a bad smell, whatever the Tories might currently be spinning to try to keep their options open. If Lab+SNP have the numbers I think he'd sod promptly off. Whether that's Friday or Saturday depends on the counting - do we think there will be a fair few contentious counts still going through Friday?
Yeah people mocking it if of course fair play. Its the few - and it is a few - that think its some massive moment.
I mean guys we have been here before several times in the last week. See question time!
If the arithmetic is clear cut, he will go to the Palace and resign. The Queen will ask Miliband to form a government.
As we know from this morning's thread, in Harold Wilson's book, he made it clear that the outgoing PM does NOT advise the Queen about his replacement - and the Queen does not have to heed it anyway.
Ed becomes PM on 8th evening.
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?b=0&i=0&s_Name=&o_lcl=C_1
I got the result to 0.37, but was a bit out on turnout, may need to adjust my position for this election accordingly.
Edit : Those betting on Scotterdammerung may want to note that antifrank had Yes on 57.3. 12 points out...
One thing any marketing campaign needs to do, once it has completed a pitch or a campaign, is to hand it off to people with absolutely no involvement in the creative process and let them pick holes in it.
I suspect Labour just do not do this and have not done this during their campaign.
Once a few ideas are picked out, we'd go through the messaging/audience/influencers/potential prat-falls/piss-taking/easily offended = then make a calculated decision that would generate enough noise, without becoming overwhelmed by controversy.
IMO, Labour have fallen into the hubris trap that can happen when the Brand Faithful totally miss the point of what they're doing. If the decision to go ahead was made after a day in a bar - I'd believe it.
The only other explanation is that Someone Important Really Liked It and everyone else just went along with it. Usually it's the person whose signature or photo is on the creation/advert that's responsible - or an acolyte of theirs. Being flattered into it really isn't an excuse.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594825574788509696
What does it show ? 2.5% - 3% Con lead. *
More than 4% swing to Labour , slightly more in England.
I will take that.
* Even though this is for GB, the vast majority of votes are in England.
Miliband's not allowed near any voters, except on QT on Thursday, where labour react by saying its a biased crowd
He's surrounded by idiots like Spencer Livermore & Lucy Powell who just let him what he wants to hear
He believes he's on some divine mission to rebuild the UK as some socialist utopia
Net result is the Labour election lot actually believe all the crap they spout and no doubt will see the coverage of the stone as coverage of their policies, not everyone crying with laughter.
And some people still want him as PM?
The polls have drifted back to Lab a bit. Yesterday we had survation and a lead in the other you gov.
Just because Clegg says that the Lib Dems want to back the Tories doesn't mean every Lib Dem will... or indeed that the Tories can rely on the DUP.
I reckon DC will resign as early as Friday if the results go against him, even if he retains the plurality of seats.
Best case scenario he needs Con+LD+UKIP+DUP>321, and some of those may be willing only to abstain. If he's on 280 and LDs only 20 or so he'll know he has no chance and head to see the Queen.
Dave's pragmatic view would be that he's done his time, clearly lost and wouldn't want to deal with the mess, better to let Ed have a go while his team choose a new leader in preparation for the almost inevitable second election. His advisers and strategists would also love to see Ed and the Nats not-doing-a-deal, it'll buy the Tories more English seats for every day it continues.
Meeting face to face with hostile/lost customers is the best reality check you can ever get. And to keep doing it. I don't mean appeasing Haters - but those who once liked your message/product and you've lost along the way.
In 4 days time we are going to be back in power...
Just wondering when does the legal requirement to be OTT in pursuit of balance going to start? 8th May?
BBC normally super quick to report on what is hot on twitter...
The DUP has to show some paper to get into Ministerial cars.
It shows a distinct and fundamental mis-understanding of NI politics and a complete ignorance to believe the DUP are naturally aligned to the Conservatives. It is their differences to the Conservatives that allowed them to completely take over NI politics from the UUP.
Good Friday and Religion helped them. But it was their left-wing Socialism politics which made this stick.
As an IT guy I would call that Quality Assurance, whereby a bunch of people who didn't develop the software test it before it gets released to make sure there's no fewer bugs in it before it gets to the public!
Is it going to be more Labour-leaning or Tory-leaning party after the cull?
Mock away. But with PM Ed against Boris the Tories will be in a world of pain.
Huntington: complaints from a Scot that no one had been to talk to her (she had no idea she was in a safe seat). Not a Nicola fan though...
If the DUP had the balance of power between the Tories and Labour you may have the point. With Labour's fortunes being tied to the SNP's, you don't. The DUP can only work with Labour if Labour don't need the SNP ... in which case Labour have won anyway.
Does it help Farron ? After all it is a Tory seat. Does it help the LDs save their skins in the SW trying to squeeze Labour voters ?
I don't think the party will join any coalition.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/594852264692555777
Another tablet...
Incidentally if they'd joined Labour last time, I'd think they'd have to continue with Labour rather than join the Tories. After 5 years of opposition to create some breathing space they could maybe join a Labour coalition in 2020
The Stone Moses?
I am the risible erection?
The question remains, given that the website is in a state of constant change by nature, is it actually biased as he suggests, or does Guido deliberately not mention when stories favourable to Con and UKIP make the front page?
In France, internet pollsters are more favourable to the FN
In the Netherlands, the same is true of the PVV
in Spain, it is true of Podemos
In Finland, it was true of The Finns
In the UK, for the Euros, it was true for UKIP
this leads to me concluding it is likely that the lowest internet pollster (YouGov) will be the one that gets UKIP right
I am saying the DUP will extract a lot of things from the Tory / LD coalition in return of support particularly more financial support for NI.
However, for their voters, the abolition of the Bedroom Tax will be the visible success.
What you gain from the lower number of entries in an area, you lose from the lower chance of being right.
I would marginally prefer a Lab govt to a Con one, but neither appeals much.
There will be no referendum in 2017. We are Europeans.
So......
And we were behind a van with a Ukip poster in the back window
No other posters or billboards from any other party spotted so far here in Hx and Up FWIW
I think it will be close between Tories and Ukip with Labour a very distant third
That's a 2% swing. Not 4.
Welfare cuts are a red line for DUP.
The DUP will not back to Tories on May 8th despite what #BBCbias tells you.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Life-size-replica-of-Labour-039-s-Pledge-Monument-in-durable-fibre-glass-/261874881247
Do you mean the GE15 predictions from April?
http://show.nojam.com/a2sq/search.php?b=0
David Cameron looked far more comfortable than the other two and actually seemed to enjoy it.
EdM looked like a fish out of water, he was clearly uncomfortable. As a northern MP, I'm surprised, as he should have known we northerners call a spade a spade.
NIck Clegg always reverts to peevishness when under pressure.
The real losers of the night, were the main stream 'metropolitan' media. The good folk of Yorkshire really showed them up and they got more answers from the politicians than any other programme I have seen. The Media are overrated and overpaid In my view. Their coverage of this campaign, has been absolutely dire.
If the nature of the government were to change significantly, however, with or without an election, it would be proper to resign and be re-appointed, as MacDonald was in August 1931.
Conservative Party members went in as undecided.