What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery, flat-lined the economy for a couple of years, then abandoned Plan A, stimulated the only bit of the economy that did not need stimulating (house-prices) and doubled government debt.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
I'm not sure that's fair. The Lib Dems acted reasonably whilst in coalition (with one or two notable exceptions), and they cannot be expected not to take advantage now there is an imminent election.
They owe no loyalty to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives owe no loyalty to them.
Election Forecast has Dumfries & Galloway with Labour (current holders) on 31%, Tories on 31% and SNP on 32%. Must be one of the closest three ways in the whole country, certainly closer than South Thanet is likely to be. Less a question of were you up for and more a question of had you had your tea before I think.
The other slightly odd thing about the seat allocations in Election Forecast is that as far as I can see they are only predicting about 13 Tory gains. This looks very low to me but they seem to be assuming a lot more Lib Dems are going to hang on in the SW than most.
South Thanet is a UKIP gain.
Not according to Election Forecast (who could be wrong of course). Tories by 4. Personally, I think that is quite likely. UKIP have not had a great campaign struggling to be heard above the noise.
I was just going to raise that: the Beeb getting very twitterpated about the idea that two newspapers could have two different views.
Fundamentally, it's an ABL position by Rupert Murdoch...
For those short on brain cells, isn't the Conservative and Unionist Party supposed to be Team GB rather than England? I'm not sure David Cameron wishes his party to be seen as anti-Scots.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
That will be a larger "slash" than the 100% cut in my CB that the Lib Dems voted for?
I am afraid the desperation is starting to show a bit. Understandable but a little sad.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
I'm not sure that's fair. The Lib Dems acted reasonably whilst in coalition (with one or two notable exceptions), and they cannot be expected not to take advantage now there is an imminent election.
They owe no loyalty to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives owe no loyalty to them.
Election Forecast has Dumfries & Galloway with Labour (current holders) on 31%, Tories on 31% and SNP on 32%. Must be one of the closest three ways in the whole country, certainly closer than South Thanet is likely to be. Less a question of were you up for and more a question of had you had your tea before I think.
The other slightly odd thing about the seat allocations in Election Forecast is that as far as I can see they are only predicting about 13 Tory gains. This looks very low to me but they seem to be assuming a lot more Lib Dems are going to hang on in the SW than most.
South Thanet is a UKIP gain.
Not according to Election Forecast (who could be wrong of course). Tories by 4. Personally, I think that is quite likely. UKIP have not had a great campaign struggling to be heard above the noise.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
According to the Beeb on R4 Today, this was part of a 2012 treasury briefing paper which also looked at only giving benefit to the first two children or reduced benefit for the first child (when child allowance was brought in first, there was no benefit for the first child). Apparently these suggestions were rejected by the PM and DPM and by the cabinet.
YouGov polls show that Labour’s support had been falling since the May 2012 local elections. This gradual decline terminated in a drop immediately following the autumn party conference. I find it intriguing that notwithstanding the election campaign, with all of the associated TV appearances and political promises, that the party has never recovered that pre-conference level of support. I also notice that the party’s support been slipping for the last 7 data points. Click to enlarge...
Talking of urinating on barstewards, this is a leaflet received yesterday from HM Gloria de Piero gently urinating on Geoff Hoon the previous Labour MP for Ashfield 1992-2010.
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery, flat-lined the economy for a couple of years, then abandoned Plan A, stimulated the only bit of the economy that did not need stimulating (house-prices) and doubled government debt.
Labour's what?
Trying to persuade people that Labour handed over an economy in good shape is probably an even harder task than trying to persuade Scots to vote for them.
Election Forecast has Dumfries & Galloway with Labour (current holders) on 31%, Tories on 31% and SNP on 32%. Must be one of the closest three ways in the whole country, certainly closer than South Thanet is likely to be. Less a question of were you up for and more a question of had you had your tea before I think.
The other slightly odd thing about the seat allocations in Election Forecast is that as far as I can see they are only predicting about 13 Tory gains. This looks very low to me but they seem to be assuming a lot more Lib Dems are going to hang on in the SW than most.
South Thanet is a UKIP gain.
Not according to Election Forecast (who could be wrong of course). Tories by 4. Personally, I think that is quite likely. UKIP have not had a great campaign struggling to be heard above the noise.
Farage isn't a shoo-in, but I'd be surprised if he lost.
Election Forecast has Dumfries & Galloway with Labour (current holders) on 31%, Tories on 31% and SNP on 32%. Must be one of the closest three ways in the whole country, certainly closer than South Thanet is likely to be. Less a question of were you up for and more a question of had you had your tea before I think.
The other slightly odd thing about the seat allocations in Election Forecast is that as far as I can see they are only predicting about 13 Tory gains. This looks very low to me but they seem to be assuming a lot more Lib Dems are going to hang on in the SW than most.
South Thanet is a UKIP gain.
Not according to Election Forecast (who could be wrong of course). Tories by 4. Personally, I think that is quite likely. UKIP have not had a great campaign struggling to be heard above the noise.
Hanretty has a big caveat on his methodology for UKIP and very high profile candidates.
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery, flat-lined the economy for a couple of years, then abandoned Plan A, stimulated the only bit of the economy that did not need stimulating (house-prices) and doubled government debt.
YouGov polls show that Labour’s support had been falling since the May 2012 local elections. This gradual decline terminated in a drop immediately following the autumn party conference. I find it intriguing that notwithstanding the election campaign, with all of the associated TV appearances and political promises, that the party has never recovered that pre-conference level of support. I also notice that the party’s support been slipping for the last 7 data points. Click to enlarge...
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery, flat-lined the economy for a couple of years, then abandoned Plan A, stimulated the only bit of the economy that did not need stimulating (house-prices) and doubled government debt.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
Must be a methodological change. It can't be because Tory support is falling.
The last ComRes (Con +4) was based on a sample that identified as Lab +1. This ComRes (Tie) is based on a sample that identifies as Lab +7.
Considering that, it's not bad for the Tories.
Party I/D isn't the same thing as past vote. Most polls that ask the question tend to find more people identifying as Labour than Conservative. It's best to look at ComRes' results as a range. The range is a Conservative lead of 0-4%. The Conservatives have led in five Com Res polls this year, and tied in two.
Talking of urinating on barstewards, this is a leaflet received yesterday from HM Gloria de Piero gently urinating on Geoff Hoon the previous Labour MP for Ashfield 1992-2010.
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery, flat-lined the economy for a couple of years, then abandoned Plan A, stimulated the only bit of the economy that did not need stimulating (house-prices) and doubled government debt.
Labour's what?
Trying to persuade people that Labour handed over an economy in good shape is probably an even harder task than trying to persuade Scots to vote for them.
Labour spent massively and reduced tax to engineer as best they could a pre election boom
The Libs are behaving like they'll have a choice of coalition partners. They won't, unless they suddenly learn to love the SNP. Their best hope is being relevant to one of the Tories or Labour.
Talking of urinating on barstewards, this is a leaflet received yesterday from HM Gloria de Piero gently urinating on Geoff Hoon the previous Labour MP for Ashfield 1992-2010.
I am truly perplexed by the logic of this stance from Danny and by extention Nick - they both need Helpful Tories to vote tactically to save them from Labour or the SNP.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
I was just going to raise that: the Beeb getting very twitterpated about the idea that two newspapers could have two different views.
Fundamentally, it's an ABL position by Rupert Murdoch...
... or even one newspaper having two different views.
They are sub-brands of one umbrella brand. Each targeting very different markets, so naturally they want to optimise the commercial outcome from their positioning.
The Libs are behaving like they'll have a choice of coalition partners. They won't, unless they suddenly learn to love the SNP. Their best hope is being relevant to one of the Tories or Labour.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
According to the Beeb on R4 Today, this was part of a 2012 treasury briefing paper which also looked at only giving benefit to the first two children or reduced benefit for the first child (when child allowance was brought in first, there was no benefit for the first child). Apparently these suggestions were rejected by the PM and DPM and by the cabinet.
Presumably they will categorically deny they plan to do it during the next Parliament too. And if they are in Coalition with the LDS we can then be sure it will not happen, as both parties are clearly opposed.
He should be out on his soapbox facing the public.
I withdraw my aspersions against Chicken Dave and his ordinary Scot-ophobia. It appears that oiks from all over this sceptred isle put the wind up him.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
They are the only party except the SNP gaining support in Scotland. With labour decimated for a generation they will become the main opposition in time and very ably led by Ruth Davidson
I will be emotionally devastated by the end of the union but I am resigned to that. But it doesn't matter whether I would prefer Con break away or not - I merely laid out why I cannot see it happening if it has not already. I don't think an SNP-Lab alliance necessarily need be as destructive as the worst case scenarios put it, though with the sides needing to fight hard at HolyRood very soon it does not encourage a peaceful arrangement to say the least. And that is more pressing. With the SNP winning a landslide the union is already dead - I cannot see them making the mistakes of PQ in Canada - so its about management of the nation in other ways now. I don't think Ed M would be a disastrous PM, I think his hands will be too constrained to be one, but though I am one of those oddballs who did agree with the austerity agenda and was angry the Tories failed in their plan for it, so I do have some trepidation about throwing caution to the wind.
I read this sometimes. But I don't get it.
Why would you be devastated by the end of the Union? Were you devastated by Partition (either)? Were you devastated by the "loss" of Rhodesia? I don't get it.
England is England with English people. Be happy to be English. Stop expecting and requiring other nations to prop up your importance in the world. Be happy with what and who you are, stop requiring Scotland to prop you up.
Guess it depends on whether you see yourself as British first and then English, or English first and then British.
I'm in the latter camp, and am entirely relaxed with the idea of an independent England, or at least Scotland going its own way. The status quo is untenable, but some are in denial and think it will all go away eventually.
British is pretty much a distinct identity of about half of Northern Ireland and a small portion of WCS.
You missed the Olympics ? The nation as one waving what you call "the butchers apron" ?
Dear Dear Harry , how jingoistic can you get , state sponsored Britishness.
Gordon Brown is going to love living in SNP Scotland. Oh, the irony....
"When I was a boy, I listened as my father - a Presbyterian minister who gave me my moral compass and sound political judgement - extolled the virtues of nationalism.
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
According to the Beeb on R4 Today, this was part of a 2012 treasury briefing paper which also looked at only giving benefit to the first two children or reduced benefit for the first child (when child allowance was brought in first, there was no benefit for the first child). Apparently these suggestions were rejected by the PM and DPM and by the cabinet.
Presumably they will categorically deny they plan to do it during the next Parliament too. And if they are in Coalition with the LDS we can then be sure it will not happen, as both parties are clearly opposed.
I would be very happy if they turned round and said they were going to limit it to two children. Mind you as a higher rate tax payer I have already lost it but don't consider that a bad thing at all.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
They are the only party except the SNP gaining support in Scotland. With labour decimated for a generation they will become the main opposition in time and very ably led by Ruth Davidson
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery
Neither do most economists - apart from Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower.......
YouGov polls show that Labour’s support had been falling since the May 2012 local elections. This gradual decline terminated in a drop immediately following the autumn party conference. I find it intriguing that notwithstanding the election campaign, with all of the associated TV appearances and political promises, that the party has never recovered that pre-conference level of support. I also notice that the party’s support been slipping for the last 7 data points. Click to enlarge...
Tories haven't recovered either.
Eh? They are currently 3 points up on their pre-conference level, they have surpassed their post-conference peak during the campaign, and they are currently trending upwards as opposed to downwards.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
This is totally beyond the comprehension of most of our politicians - no wonder EdM had to consult with Russell Brand for advice on such matters.
The only trend that matters for us is Africa's population explosion to 4bn by the end of this century and the impact this will have on Europe.
I think the trend that REALLY matters is the central bank driven explosion of debt and fiat currency debauchery. We're heading for a huge bursting of the bubble in equities and govt debt - and the depression that will bring in its wake. We've become adjusted to a financial system that survives on borrowing to spend. This is not sustainable. 'The Fed has become the fundamentals' is no way to run the world The 4 waves of Financier's post are entirely valid - but we're going to go through 2008 on steroids before that. All the bullshit that politicians obsess over is going to become a trifling side-show to this massive retrenchment. The societies of the advanced welfare states are going to go through a deep 'does not compute' mental readjustment - especially the lefties.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
I will be emotionally devastated by the end of the union but I am resigned to that. But it doesn't matter whether I would prefer Con break away or not - I merely laid out why I cannot see it happening if it has not already. I don't think an SNP-Lab alliance necessarily need be as destructive as the worst case scenarios put it, though with the sides needing to fight hard at HolyRood very soon it does not encourage a peaceful arrangement to say the least. And that is more pressing. With the SNP winning a landslide the union is already dead - I cannot see them making the mistakes of PQ in Canada - so its about management of the nation in other ways now. I don't think Ed M would be a disastrous PM, I think his hands will be too constrained to be one, but though I am one of those oddballs who did agree with the austerity agenda and was angry the Tories failed in their plan for it, so I do have some trepidation about throwing caution to the wind.
I read this sometimes. But I don't get it.
Why would you be devastated by the end of the Union? Were you devastated by Partition (either)? Were you devastated by the "loss" of Rhodesia? I don't get it.
England is England with English people. Be happy to be English. Stop expecting and requiring other nations to prop up your importance in the world. Be happy with what and who you are, stop requiring Scotland to prop you up.
Guess it depends on whether you see yourself as British first and then English, or English first and then British.
I'm in the latter camp, and am entirely relaxed with the idea of an independent England, or at least Scotland going its own way. The status quo is untenable, but some are in denial and think it will all go away eventually.
British is pretty much a distinct identity of about half of Northern Ireland and a small portion of WCS.
You missed the Olympics ? The nation as one waving what you call "the butchers apron" ?
Dear Dear Harry , how jingoistic can you get , state sponsored Britishness.
On Britishness, malc, which of these is a bit of arbitrary bollocks and which is a fact of nature:
1. drawing a line on a map, and putting up a sign where the M6 crosses it saying gobble gobble na Alba, and btw it's the M74 now;
Watched "Newzoids" on ITV at 9pm tonight, basically a CGI version of Spitting Image. A bit hit and miss but there were a few funny sketches, eg. Lord Sugar asking Ed, Yvette and Ed to design a new Labour logo
Election Forecast has Dumfries & Galloway with Labour (current holders) on 31%, Tories on 31% and SNP on 32%. Must be one of the closest three ways in the whole country, certainly closer than South Thanet is likely to be. Less a question of were you up for and more a question of had you had your tea before I think.
The other slightly odd thing about the seat allocations in Election Forecast is that as far as I can see they are only predicting about 13 Tory gains. This looks very low to me but they seem to be assuming a lot more Lib Dems are going to hang on in the SW than most.
South Thanet is a UKIP gain.
Not according to Election Forecast (who could be wrong of course). Tories by 4. Personally, I think that is quite likely. UKIP have not had a great campaign struggling to be heard above the noise.
Farage isn't a shoo-in, but I'd be surprised if he lost.
Quite so.
I expect a solid win for Farage. No dramas or recounts and probably a pub crawl around Thanet South on Friday.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
What Cameron is relying on, IMHO, is voters pencils in key marginal seats hesitating and hovering over the "Labour" box on Thursday next week and deciding, at the last moment, 'nah, too risky' and to tick the "Conservative" box instead*
*Probably applies more to UKIP/Lib Dem voters, to be fair, as the number of Con-Lab floaters is marginal.
He might be right. I simply don't know. I'd like to think the British electorate were sensible and practical people. But I don't think many people realise what a parlous state the country and its finances are still in.
Voters don't realise George Osborne killed Labour's recovery
Neither do most economists - apart from Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower.......
Then most economists should learn to read graphs, or helpful hand-gestures from the Shadow Chancellor.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
I am truly perplexed by the logic of this stance from Danny and by extention Nick - they both need Helpful Tories to vote tactically to save them from Labour or the SNP.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
You're missing than this is a competitive General Election and not a coupon election.
Think of it as a lovers tiff but with the potential for a post election reconciliation .... where I am reliably informed that such events usually lend themselves to sensational sex .... much rustling in the Downing Street Rose Garden !! ....
YouGov polls show that Labour’s support had been falling since the May 2012 local elections. This gradual decline terminated in a drop immediately following the autumn party conference. I find it intriguing that notwithstanding the election campaign, with all of the associated TV appearances and political promises, that the party has never recovered that pre-conference level of support. I also notice that the party’s support been slipping for the last 7 data points. Click to enlarge...
Tories haven't recovered either.
Eh? They are currently 3 points up on their pre-conference level, they have surpassed their post-conference peak during the campaign, and they are currently trending upwards as opposed to downwards.
Have you not noticed their slide between days 57 and 65 ?
I am truly perplexed by the logic of this stance from Danny and by extention Nick - they both need Helpful Tories to vote tactically to save them from Labour or the SNP.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
These donkeys are running the country, I would not trust them to run a bath.
Gordon Brown is going to love living in SNP Scotland. Oh, the irony....
"When I was a boy, I listened as my father - a Presbyterian minister who gave me my moral compass and sound political judgement - extolled the virtues of nationalism.
LOL.
Gordon and his amazing moral compass...a rejected Viz cartoon strip.
I am truly perplexed by the logic of this stance from Danny and by extention Nick - they both need Helpful Tories to vote tactically to save them from Labour or the SNP.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
You're missing than this is a competitive General Election and not a coupon election.
Think of it as a lovers tiff but with the potential for a post election reconciliation .... where I am reliably informed that such events usually lend themselves to sensational sex .... much rustling in the Downing Street Rose Garden !! ....
ComRes provides a little ray of sunshine for Labour. I think the blues are in a better position, though it's very tight.
The news is: there is no news. The polls are pretty much where they were at the beginning of the campaign. The wheels have fallen off Labour in Scotland, LDs have failed to get any recovery, UKIP have failed to get much traction.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
According to the Beeb on R4 Today, this was part of a 2012 treasury briefing paper which also looked at only giving benefit to the first two children or reduced benefit for the first child (when child allowance was brought in first, there was no benefit for the first child). Apparently these suggestions were rejected by the PM and DPM and by the cabinet.
Presumably they will categorically deny they plan to do it during the next Parliament too. And if they are in Coalition with the LDS we can then be sure it will not happen, as both parties are clearly opposed.
I would be very happy if they turned round and said they were going to limit it to two children. Mind you as a higher rate tax payer I have already lost it but don't consider that a bad thing at all.
Yes, we lost ours too, which was fair enough.
The fact is that the spending promises the Tories are making, as well as their deficit reduction plans, mean that there will have to be some epic cuts that go way beyond hammering the relatively few members of the feckless, undeserving poor that we have out there. It is inconceivable that the Tories do not know what they are going to be targeting. It would be nice if they could let the electorate know before they election. If they don't, stories like Alexander's - who was, lest we forget - a member of the cabinet, the quad and number two at the Treasury for five years - is all we have to go on.
Yeah, I'm not voting Lib Dem now, Clegg can go whistle.
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Not prepared to forgive him and his just throwing around a lot of talk in order to save themselves without meaning it? It's like, he and Cameron had to have agreed at the debate that Clegg would attack him to some degree. He could be in trouble if he goes too far it seems though.
Thank you to those with the kind words this morning. And people say you cannot write things worthwhile while angry at midnight on the internet!
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
This is totally beyond the comprehension of most of our politicians - no wonder EdM had to consult with Russell Brand for advice on such matters.
The only trend that matters for us is Africa's population explosion to 4bn by the end of this century and the impact this will have on Europe.
I think the trend that REALLY matters is the central bank driven explosion of debt and fiat currency debauchery. We're heading for a huge bursting of the bubble in equities and govt debt - and the depression that will bring in its wake. We've become adjusted to a financial system that survives on borrowing to spend. This is not sustainable. 'The Fed has become the fundamentals' is no way to run the world The 4 waves of Financier's post are entirely valid - but we're going to go through 2008 on steroids before that. All the bullshit that politicians obsess over is going to become a trifling side-show to this massive retrenchment. The societies of the advanced welfare states are going to go through a deep 'does not compute' mental readjustment - especially the lefties.
Totally agree and there will be a mad rush for self sufficiency in energy and food that could bring back rationing. The UK government in control then (if we are not totally devolved with individual passports and customs posts at the Welsh and Scottish borders) will reject all immigration and could reject and emigrate those without a totally UK family history over the last 100 years.
"Scots are behaving in the way any nation gripped by nationalism does. Artists, poets and writers are gazing skywards and telling us of ‘a new start'; unionist opposition isn’t just disagreed with but routinely vilified. Few folk are listening to reason, because reason is too painful and these are difficult times."
"Perhaps it’s time for people in Scotland to start wondering if they want to live in a place where it can be seriously projected that a single party might take all of the seats at a general election, and where well-educated and intelligent people would actually celebrate such a state of affairs. Or maybe it’ll take a few years of independence before Scots are prepared to face up to reality. The general historical trend with nationalism, I’m told, is the latter."
Yeah, I'm not voting Lib Dem now, Clegg can go whistle.
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Not prepared to forgive him and his just throwing around a lot of talk in order to save themselves without meaning it? It's like, he and Cameron had to have agreed at the debate that Clegg would attack him to some degree. He could be in trouble if he goes too far it seems though.
Thank you to those with the kind words this morning. And people say you cannot write things worthwhile while angry at midnight on the internet!
Yeah, I'm not voting Lib Dem now, Clegg can go whistle.
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Not prepared to forgive him and his just throwing around a lot of talk in order to save themselves without meaning it? It's like, he and Cameron had to have agreed at the debate that Clegg would attack him to some degree. He could be in trouble if he goes too far it seems though.
Thank you to those with the kind words this morning. And people say you cannot write things worthwhile while angry at midnight on the internet!
Danny Alexander's pretty much said he leaked a three year old document to ensure the PM gets embarrassed on Question Time tonight.
The comfort from that I can draw is that the Lib Dems are in real trouble in their seats where the Tories are second. Yeovil nailed on Tory gain.
The Lib Dems should be punished for such perfidy.
Plus today's Times has an excellent article about how the Lib Dems kinda won't go into a coalition with the Tories again.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
This is totally beyond the comprehension of most of our politicians - no wonder EdM had to consult with Russell Brand for advice on such matters.
The only trend that matters for us is Africa's population explosion to 4bn by the end of this century and the impact this will have on Europe.
Book (Hardback) available from Amazon at £15.90 on 28 May and Kindle edition at £12.34 on May12.
Why should that matter ? We all came out of Africa !
As evidenced by your family tree?
Yours too, mate !
Mine only goes back as far as coming over in 1066 as one of the Normans (Northmen) to bash the heads of the natives, which we did to the native Gauls previously.
I will be emotionally devastated by the end of the union but I am resigned to that. But it doesn't matter whether I would prefer Con break away or not - I merely laid out why I cannot see it happening if it has not already. I don't think an SNP-Lab alliance necessarily need be as destructive as the worst case scenarios put it, though with the sides needing to fight hard at HolyRood very soon it does not encourage a peaceful arrangement to say the least. And that is more pressing. With the SNP winning a landslide the union is already dead - I cannot see them making the mistakes of PQ in Canada - so its about management of the nation in other ways
I read this sometimes. But I don't get it.
Why would you be devastated by the end of the Union? Were you devastated by Partition (either)? Were you devastated by the "loss" of Rhodesia? I don't get it.
England is England with English people. Be happy to be English. Stop expecting and requiring other nations to prop up your importance in the world. Be happy with what and who you are, stop requiring Scotland to prop you up.
British is pretty much a distinct identity of about half of Northern Ireland and a small portion of WCS.
You missed the Olympics ? The nation as one waving what you call "the butchers apron" ?
Dear Dear Harry , how jingoistic can you get , state sponsored Britishness.
On Britishness, malc, which of these is a bit of arbitrary bollocks and which is a fact of nature:
1. drawing a line on a map, and putting up a sign where the M6 crosses it saying gobble gobble na Alba, and btw it's the M74 now;
2. the Atlantic Ocean?
Britishness does not exist , it is fake. 1. I don't care where lines are 2. It has always been the A/M74
People accepted the fake construct when their was a pretence at least at fairness. Now it is just rich carpet baggers in London crapping on us , people have got fed up with it. You can only crap on people for so long. Simple as that. Pretending the Olymipcs was some great British thing is crap , it was London's Olympics which we had to pay for and surprise surprise when we had the Commonwealth games , guess who had to pay for them all themselves , GB went out the window then and we paid twice as usual.
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization 2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change 3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World 4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from: No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends: Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
I spent a little time this morning skimming UKIPs 2010 and 2015 manifestos. Although I fundamentally disagree with some of their policies (that's shocked you!), there are some good ideas in there.
But the main difference is how much more professional the 2015 manifesto seems. As a whole I would not want it implemented, but it seems a much more coherent vision for government that the utterly laughable 2010 version.
Is this Carswell's influence showing through, or just the professionalism you get from a bigger party?
Lewes will be under assault too before May 8th. I thought Mr Baker for all his UFO conspiracy novelty value would hang on, but it appears that the bohemian folk of Lewes are going Greenie or Tory instead.
To get Lewes back would be marvellous news for me - I love the place.
I am truly perplexed by the logic of this stance from Danny and by extention Nick - they both need Helpful Tories to vote tactically to save them from Labour or the SNP.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
"Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said the Conservatives proposed to "slash" child benefit while the two parties were in government together."
Lib Dems reinforce their image as duplicituous untrustworthy bar stewards urinating on anyone who was a previous partner.
The Lib Dems are truly testing the theory that if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing.
You're missing than this is a competitive General Election and not a coupon election.
Think of it as a lovers tiff but with the potential for a post election reconciliation .... where I am reliably informed that such events usually lend themselves to sensational sex .... much rustling in the Downing Street Rose Garden !! ....
That will depend on the (seat) numbers of any potential divorce.
Comments
They owe no loyalty to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives owe no loyalty to them.
France pays nothing for the first child.
Ireland limits it to 2 children.
Italy pays nothing when income is over about 35k.
A trope ripe for questioning.
I'd support a limit of 3 children receiving CB.
I am afraid the desperation is starting to show a bit. Understandable but a little sad.
Must be a methodological change. It can't be because Tory support is falling.
Also see that this morning the SPIN gap is at 19.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/593406497272549377
Trying to persuade people that Labour handed over an economy in good shape is probably an even harder task than trying to persuade Scots to vote for them.
This ComRes (Tie) is based on a sample that identifies as Lab +7.
Considering that, it's not bad for the Tories.
Anyone there?
I agree. It'd be even worse.
The polls this week has shown a small, but fairly consistent and discernible, shift to the Tories.
And they do this? With an old crap policy paper? That was collectively rejected?
What am I missing except the smell of desperation and shouts of Look Look Evil Tories!!
1. Beyond Shanghai: The Age of Urbanization
2. The Tip of the Iceberg: Accelerating Technological Change
3. Getting Old is What it Used To Be: Responding to the Challenges of an Aging World
4. Trade, People, Finance and Data: Greater Global Connections
Taken from:
No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends:
Published 12 May 2015 by Public Affairs
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/The_four_global_forces_breaking_all_the_trends?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1504
This is totally beyond the comprehension of most of our politicians - no wonder EdM had to consult with Russell Brand for advice on such matters.
Will there be any Orange Bookers left on May 8th? The Red Liberals seem much happier in Opposition whatever the maths says.
Frankly we're used to a much better class of invective.....
"is that it" Tories 3% or less lead
"corker" - Tories 4% or more ahead
"harry-kane" - Tories 40% or above
"TPD" - Labour in 20's
"When I was a boy, I listened as my father - a Presbyterian minister who gave me my moral compass and sound political judgement - extolled the virtues of nationalism.
LOL.
The Tories have IIRC 5 Battlebus regional hubs - anyone know what LHQ are doing? Or the LDs?
It's been very quiet on that front on here.
ComRes provides a little ray of sunshine for Labour. I think the blues are in a better position, though it's very tight.
Sure he's doing well in his current career.
1. drawing a line on a map, and putting up a sign where the M6 crosses it saying gobble gobble na Alba, and btw it's the M74 now;
2. the Atlantic Ocean?
I expect a solid win for Farage. No dramas or recounts and probably a pub crawl around Thanet South on Friday.
We have employed 1 Italian and 2 persons of Indian extraction this year. I do not know if they would count as "immigrant" in your sniff test.
Think of it as a lovers tiff but with the potential for a post election reconciliation .... where I am reliably informed that such events usually lend themselves to sensational sex .... much rustling in the Downing Street Rose Garden !! ....
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Hence my
In England it is like watching a nil nil draw.
The fact is that the spending promises the Tories are making, as well as their deficit reduction plans, mean that there will have to be some epic cuts that go way beyond hammering the relatively few members of the feckless, undeserving poor that we have out there. It is inconceivable that the Tories do not know what they are going to be targeting. It would be nice if they could let the electorate know before they election. If they don't, stories like Alexander's - who was, lest we forget - a member of the cabinet, the quad and number two at the Treasury for five years - is all we have to go on.
" I might even vote Labour. "
It surely is the end of days!
Thank you to those with the kind words this morning. And people say you cannot write things worthwhile while angry at midnight on the internet!
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2015/04/scotlands-one-party-state/
"Scots are behaving in the way any nation gripped by nationalism does. Artists, poets and writers are gazing skywards and telling us of ‘a new start'; unionist opposition isn’t just disagreed with but routinely vilified. Few folk are listening to reason, because reason is too painful and these are difficult times."
"Perhaps it’s time for people in Scotland to start wondering if they want to live in a place where it can be seriously projected that a single party might take all of the seats at a general election, and where well-educated and intelligent people would actually celebrate such a state of affairs. Or maybe it’ll take a few years of independence before Scots are prepared to face up to reality.
The general historical trend with nationalism, I’m told, is the latter."
Odd ...
I was increasingly lost by @Dair's argument - and then he started on about Libertarians - and got that totally wrong too.
The comfort from that I can draw is that the Lib Dems are in real trouble in their seats where the Tories are second. Yeovil nailed on Tory gain.
The Lib Dems should be punished for such perfidy.
Plus today's Times has an excellent article about how the Lib Dems kinda won't go into a coalition with the Tories again.
1. I don't care where lines are
2. It has always been the A/M74
People accepted the fake construct when their was a pretence at least at fairness. Now it is just rich carpet baggers in London crapping on us , people have got fed up with it.
You can only crap on people for so long. Simple as that. Pretending the Olymipcs was some great British thing is crap , it was London's Olympics which we had to pay for and surprise surprise when we had the Commonwealth games , guess who had to pay for them all themselves , GB went out the window then and we paid twice as usual.
I spent a little time this morning skimming UKIPs 2010 and 2015 manifestos. Although I fundamentally disagree with some of their policies (that's shocked you!), there are some good ideas in there.
But the main difference is how much more professional the 2015 manifesto seems. As a whole I would not want it implemented, but it seems a much more coherent vision for government that the utterly laughable 2010 version.
Is this Carswell's influence showing through, or just the professionalism you get from a bigger party?
To get Lewes back would be marvellous news for me - I love the place.
Well it is kinda a mark indicating a clear preference for one candidate.