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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

SystemSystem Posts: 12,216
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

ComRes ends a few days when all the movement was to the Tories particularly with the phone polls. On Monday Ashcroft had a 6% CON lead while the Guardian had a 3% one.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Love Mike Smithson being true to form by stamping all over the Tories' hopes at any chance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    First?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Danny565 said:

    Love Mike Smithson being true to form by stamping all over the Tories' hopes at any chance.

    It'll make victory even sweeter :p
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    hmmm SPIN? or wait for yougov and mori!?
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Its an obvious outlier
  • heseltineheseltine Posts: 50
    How many LDs on this scenario?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    There could be something in the theory that phone polls conducted during the week rather than the weekend are better for Labour. (Tomorrow's Ipsos may change that)
  • heseltineheseltine Posts: 50
    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    NoEasyDay said:

    Its an obvious outlier

    Comedy Results anyone?

    I'll get my coat....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,969
    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    LD 7% would mean a lot of 'safe' LD seats changing hands.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Another day another day closer to Ed being PM.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    I have to say there is something especially comedic about the idea of Ed being PM having won less seats that Cameron.

    The daily mail readers didn't like the fact he won the Labour leadership let alone if he became PM this way.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    IOS said:

    Another day another day closer to Ed being PM.

    Couldn't you have waited 5 minutes, so that you didn't tempt Yougov's fate? :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    anotherDave said:

    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    LD 7% would mean a lot of 'safe' LD seats changing hands.

    Somerton and Frome might be in trouble.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Baffled as to whether the LDs are trying to win over Tories or alienate them...
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    Is that it? A three year old policy paper from IDS? Desparatw, or what?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Patrick Wintour ✔ @patrickwintour

    Danny Alexander exposes the 'secret' Tory planning for £8bn in welfare cuts. Tories say not true. http://gu.com/p/48xja/stw

    We know what the bbc will be running with tomorrow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Awaiting the Daily Swinggov
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    Wonder what the BBC will run tomorrow.

    I notice they didn't get their copy of the Times today at Beeboid towers.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    The thing with this sort of "revealed thing" is it doesn't shift a single vote the public think its just politicians mudslinging.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 8s 8 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a one-point lead: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Artist said:

    There could be something in the theory that phone polls conducted during the week rather than the weekend are better for Labour. (Tomorrow's Ipsos may change that)

    Noting that the election is during the week rather than a weekend (something else due for reform, frankly - why not conduct them on Sundays like most of Europe?).
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    Guess what will dominate the Today programme tomorrow morning.

    I wonder if Ed Balls will be invited back to complete his PP Broadcast for Labour. after all he was only allowed 15 minutes this morning.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Baskerville said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    Is that it? A three year old policy paper from IDS? Desparatw, or what?
    Plus I'm sure the reaction will be: weren't they going to do that anyway?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Danny565 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 8s 8 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a one-point lead: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

    lol - blame IOS
  • heseltineheseltine Posts: 50
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897

    Wonder what the BBC will run tomorrow.

    I notice they didn't get their copy of the Times today at Beeboid towers.
    Yet Danny is asking Tories to vote for him in his own constituency!
    He must know he is toast.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    The England figures are out of line as well - level pegging on 36%, the last 10 sets of England figures from those pollsters who provide them, have had Tory leads of 3-8%.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a one-point lead: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.

    No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left. Nothing anyone can say in the remainder of the campaign will be new to the electorate, surely, and if it hasn't sparked a better trend than what we've seen to date, it is not going to.

    Edit: YouGov will probably show a Con+4 lead now, just to show me up.

    Why would you want the Tories to break clear?

    We're moving towards the best possible future for Britain - an SNP controlled government. The most popular government party since the second world war gets to run the country. That's a Win/Win right up until Scotland casts those outside Scotland away to fend for themselves.

    But you will be happier standing on your own two feet.
    I will be emotionally devastated by the end of the union but I am resigned to that. But it doesn't matter whether I would prefer Con break away or not - I merely laid out why I cannot see it happening if it has not already. I don't think an SNP-Lab alliance necessarily need be as destructive as the worst case scenarios put it, though with the sides needing to fight hard at HolyRood very soon it does not encourage a peaceful arrangement to say the least. And that is more pressing. With the SNP winning a landslide the union is already dead - I cannot see them making the mistakes of PQ in Canada - so its about management of the nation in other ways now. I don't think Ed M would be a disastrous PM, I think his hands will be too constrained to be one, but though I am one of those oddballs who did agree with the austerity agenda and was angry the Tories failed in their plan for it, so I do have some trepidation about throwing caution to the wind.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    You'll notice many PB Tories who dismiss YG will now get excited over this. Looks like there is genuine movement towards the Tories, but it's a small lead.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Thus I read this poll as indicating the Conservatives are actually significantly ahead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Election over. The statistical tie is king!

    That Tories have to rely on assuming Miliband will become very unpopular and either go down in 2016 or 2020 as comforter is very revealing (which is not to say they may not be right in that assessment, but things clearly are not promising for right now in that case).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    SeanT said:

    It's not "enormously tight", tish tish, it's entirely what I have been predicting for a year. A very very small Miliband plurality, which will lead to a horribly weak minority govt, dependant on a separatist party - a govt which will therefore collapse on or around the Holyrood elex of 2016.

    Miliband will be PM for about a year.

    Buckle up, batten down, it's going to be a rough ride, but entertaining. After 2016? IF the Tories can install the right leader, they could romp home.

    IF.

    Ye this is what I've said all along too.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnLilburne said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    The England figures are out of line as well - level pegging on 36%, the last 10 sets of England figures from those pollsters who provide them, have had Tory leads of 3-8%.

    Villa or West Ham ?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    So, after tonights polls are the PB Hodges declaring neck and neck or are we still in the "Tory most seats nailed on, Tory majority within reach" territory.

    PS Basil is happy he has the night off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,710
    Danny565 said:

    Love Mike Smithson being true to form by stamping all over the Tories' hopes at any chance.

    The bias is shocking. Still, it is his blog.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    Anywhere *may* be vulnerable but I'd be distinctly wary about reading across from the national polls directly to specific Lib Dem-held seats. Local factors matter too much and while 7% would be an extremely poor result, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic: they'd still be likely to end up with more seats than in 1983 when they polled 25%.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    Yep true but i claim first dibs on it being an outlier.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    My 20 poll average now has the Tories 0.5% ahead, probably their biggest lead since at least the flounce bounce. The last time either party was so much as 1% ahead was the end of February.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    david_herdson said:

    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    Anywhere *may* be vulnerable but I'd be distinctly wary about reading across from the national polls directly to specific Lib Dem-held seats. Local factors matter too much and while 7% would be an extremely poor result, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic: they'd still be likely to end up with more seats than in 1983 when they polled 25%.
    If they get 7% I just can't see that
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    The_Apocalypse said:

    You'll notice many PB Tories who dismiss YG will now get excited over this. Looks like there is genuine movement towards the Tories, but it's a small lead.

    You'll notice many PB Lefties will now try to play down YG..... yadder yadder....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,710
    Those "leaked" £8bn of welfare cuts seem well-thought through and eminently sensible to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,969
    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If the general election result is 35% - 34% to the Tories then Ed is PM.

    Cherio Dave.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    surbiton said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    The England figures are out of line as well - level pegging on 36%, the last 10 sets of England figures from those pollsters who provide them, have had Tory leads of 3-8%.

    Villa or West Ham ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#England
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    I looked back at their last poll (headline result Con +4) -- on the same metric ('do you think of yourself as') -- the scores were Con 26, Lab 27.

    As ICM might say, this sample might be a bit too Labour...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Those "leaked" £8bn of welfare cuts seem well-thought through and eminently sensible to me.

    Absolutely. Considering its policy to find £12bn of cuts, that would reduce the cuts needed to be found to just £4bn. Looks good to me.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Danny565 said:

    Love Mike Smithson being true to form by stamping all over the Tories' hopes at any chance.

    I hadn't noticed...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Both Com Res and Yougov might mean Labour getting more seats in England & Wales than the Tories.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    david_herdson said:

    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    Anywhere *may* be vulnerable but I'd be distinctly wary about reading across from the national polls directly to specific Lib Dem-held seats. Local factors matter too much and while 7% would be an extremely poor result, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic: they'd still be likely to end up with more seats than in 1983 when they polled 25%.
    Eastbourne will never be vulnerable to the tories, the people there have yellow blood and drive yellow cars!
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    It's pretty clear that our pollsters have lost the knack of prediction. They cannot agree with themselves let alone each other. Either that or the electorate is uniquely excitable, volatile etc (when we know that out on the street most are bored to tears).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    "This is the worst result for the Tories from the firm since the Daily Mail began its GE 2015 polling with ComRes nearly two months ago."

    For completeness, it's also the equal worst-ever Lib Dem score on a ComRes phone poll, matching that of 29/6/2014.

    The 35% is also within a point of the Tories' best score with ComRes since 2012.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Danny565 said:

    Love Mike Smithson being true to form by stamping all over the Tories' hopes at any chance.

    I hadn't noticed...
    Smithson Junior is the great Bear of Lib Dem-Con street though lol
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,969
    Yeah, today the Lib Dems are doing their best to ensure, I don't vote Lib Dem next Thursday.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Surbiton

    Unless Dave has more than 30 odd in England his is screwed.

    Cherio Dave.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The key thing with YG is that they've weighted to a one point Labour lead in January/February.

    The phones meanwhile had the Tories ahead at this time. If the phones are right, YG is consistently wrong because of the weighting decision.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592

    I'm not surprised at that at all - just because Clegg wants a Con/Lib coalition, doesn't mean it'll go through. He needs the support of his party, and given their brand has been so damaged in the last five years, they'll be very cautious of a second coalition.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Hunt fairly good on Newsnight.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    NickPalmer said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.


    But as I've pointed out, it's very different to the last ComRes, where the gap was only one point.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    frpenkridge said:

    It's pretty clear that our pollsters have lost the knack of prediction. They cannot agree with themselves let alone each other. Either that or the electorate is uniquely excitable, volatile etc (when we know that out on the street most are bored to tears).

    "Bored to tears" might equate to volatility, if people don't think there is much between the parties it might be easy for swing voters to go Tory one day, Labour the next, or they might not have much interest and pick parties almost at random.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,955
    SeanT Personally I trust Nate Silver that Tories will just about be largest party, helped by squeezing the UKIP vote, Labour backbenchers will dump Miliband if Labour come second on seats
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    Both Com Res and Yougov might mean Labour getting more seats in England & Wales than the Tories.

    Labour, like a drunken lothario, always underperform.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    ComRes is an obvious outlier. Ashcroft is clearly the Gold Standard
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,710
    NickPalmer said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.

    I hate Labour, and detect no sympathy for it. I don't know where all these "likes" come from.

    Facebook?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    Looks like we are going to spend the next five years being ruled over by the loony left.

    At least on the plus side the heir to Blair will be replaced.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Aye the ginger heided weasel is running scared.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,710
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    If Cameron is going down, it'll be sweet consolidation to take as many of these double-dealing, yellow-livered, two-faced backstabbers with him as possible.

    But that's enough about News International.

    I also hope he makes a few gains from the Liberal Democrats as well.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    currystar said:

    david_herdson said:

    heseltine said:

    I read somewhere today that Lewes and Eastbourne are vulnerable to the Tories at this low level of support for the LDs..is that correct?

    Anywhere *may* be vulnerable but I'd be distinctly wary about reading across from the national polls directly to specific Lib Dem-held seats. Local factors matter too much and while 7% would be an extremely poor result, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic: they'd still be likely to end up with more seats than in 1983 when they polled 25%.
    If they get 7% I just can't see that
    7% is about 2m votes. That's more than enough to win 25 seats if concentrated in the right areas. It'll mean a hell of a lot of lost deposits though.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Those "leaked" £8bn of welfare cuts seem well-thought through and eminently sensible to me.

    Absolutely. Considering its policy to find £12bn of cuts, that would reduce the cuts needed to be found to just £4bn. Looks good to me.
    Me too. I have never understood why you get the same amount of child benefit and CTCs for each successive child, at the very least there should be a taper.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah, today the Lib Dems are doing their best to ensure, I don't vote Lib Dem next Thursday.

    Crazy - Hallam Cons should vote blue - let him rot.

    Cable on an anti Con rant in the Indy too.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Alexander surely cant think he has a hope in hell?!?

    If he does he really has lost the plot.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    If Cameron is going down, it'll be sweet consolidation to take as many of these double-dealing, yellow-livered, two-faced backstabbers with him as possible.

    But that's enough about News International.

    I also hope he makes a few gains from the Liberal Democrats as well.
    Agree.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Chris123 said:

    Thus I read this poll as indicating the Conservatives are actually significantly ahead.

    Me too, Tory minority still best bet
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TSE

    'Bloody hell the Lib Dems must have some shocking private polling'

    Don't you mean competitive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592

    I'm not surprised at that at all - just because Clegg wants a Con/Lib coalition, doesn't mean it'll go through. He needs the support of his party, and given their brand has been so damaged in the last five years, they'll be very cautious of a second coalition.
    Yes indeed. I can just about believe Clegg would genuinely want to go into coalition again, that he shares the view that if the LD numbers together with Con is enough for a majority, they have to take it. Power first and all that. But as bruised and battered as they are and will be, I cannot see the remainder of the party thinking the continued cost worth what little power they would have. That doesn't mean the party has no point, as some claim, but it is a reasonable assessment that the price of further coalition is not worth the cost to the party or country (parties often conflating the two of course). Half of LD voters jumped ship immediately in 2010, but they've gone down even further since then, particularly in the last year, and that says to me those who had stuck with them in 2010-13 did not think the cost was worth what they were getting out of it. And the parties MPs seem unlikely to think different I suspect, at the prospect of doing that again.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Casino_Royale said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.

    I hate Labour, and detect no sympathy for it. I don't know where all these "likes" come from.

    Facebook?
    Hate is a strong word comrade

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    chestnut said:

    The key thing with YG is that they've weighted to a one point Labour lead in January/February.

    The phones meanwhile had the Tories ahead at this time. If the phones are right, YG is consistently wrong because of the weighting decision.


    Yep, I'm reading a one point Labour lead as a half point Conservative one at the moment.

    However since YG are polling 7x a week and the press report the headline only it has changed the narrative of the election significantly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,955
    kle4/Dair Disagree on both counts, in 1993 it was the BQ who won a landslide in Quebec at the Canadian general election under a charismatic leader and held a referendum 2 years later they still managed to lose, the mistakes were made by the PQ before the 1980 referendum, the 1995 referendum was very focused. But Sturgeon will not hold another referendum unless certain of victory or following an EU out vote anyway, post-election the Smith Commission proposals will be legislated for and if Labour lose they will get a more effective leader, if the SNP hold the balance of power they will no longer be a party of protest at either Holyrood or Westminster
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah, today the Lib Dems are doing their best to ensure, I don't vote Lib Dem next Thursday.

    Cable on an anti Con rant in the Indy too.
    That's not news...he does that most weeks, just not all of it is caught on tape :-)

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,710
    tyson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.

    I hate Labour, and detect no sympathy for it. I don't know where all these "likes" come from.

    Facebook?
    Hate is a strong word comrade

    Don't call me comrade, unless you want a slap. This is Britain, not the 1950s Soviet Union.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JohnLilburne said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Those "leaked" £8bn of welfare cuts seem well-thought through and eminently sensible to me.

    Absolutely. Considering its policy to find £12bn of cuts, that would reduce the cuts needed to be found to just £4bn. Looks good to me.
    Me too. I have never understood why you get the same amount of child benefit and CTCs for each successive child, at the very least there should be a taper.

    People on £49k pa getting child benefit - Labour and LDs want to preserve that.
  • enfantenfant Posts: 34
    It does not matter if Clegg wins or not.
    What remains of the Party will ensure that he is not part of the decision process going forward
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    Casino_Royale said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Chris123 said:

    Sorry folks but this ComRes poll is an outlier. Conservatives more votes in Scotland than Labour? Maybe but rather unlikely. The whopper though is on page 15. 30% of the sample think of themselves as Labour while only 23% think of themselves as Conservative. By that measure alone, Labour should be 7 points ahead but in fact they're just even indicating that there is a lot of crossover.

    It might well be an outlier as it's only one poll. But the pattern of more people thinking of themselves as Labour is traditional - we've seen it in most polls that ask the question for at least a decade, and it's also why more people always say they "like" Labour than the Tories. Labour's classic problem is that general sympathy doesn't always convert into votes.

    I hate Labour, and detect no sympathy for it. I don't know where all these "likes" come from.

    Facebook?
    Trade Union Pilgrims??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,955
    Interesting that Tories retake the lead with yougov tonight as comres has them back level pegging
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Warm cuddly civic nationalism... http://t.co/pljoXFt8Q0
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    enfant said:

    It does not matter if Clegg wins or not.
    What remains of the Party will ensure that he is not part of the decision process going forward

    A more interesting process if he wins his seat though. Makes the setting him aside something that actually have to sack up and do, not just the electorate removing that obstacle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592

    I'm not surprised at that at all - just because Clegg wants a Con/Lib coalition, doesn't mean it'll go through. He needs the support of his party, and given their brand has been so damaged in the last five years, they'll be very cautious of a second coalition.
    Yes indeed. I can just about believe Clegg would genuinely want to go into coalition again, that he shares the view that if the LD numbers together with Con is enough for a majority, they have to take it. Power first and all that. But as bruised and battered as they are and will be, I cannot see the remainder of the party thinking the continued cost worth what little power they would have. That doesn't mean the party has no point, as some claim, but it is a reasonable assessment that the price of further coalition is not worth the cost to the party or country (parties often conflating the two of course). Half of LD voters jumped ship immediately in 2010, but they've gone down even further since then, particularly in the last year, and that says to me those who had stuck with them in 2010-13 did not think the cost was worth what they were getting out of it. And the parties MPs seem unlikely to think different I suspect, at the prospect of doing that again.
    The LD's have lost what they reasonably stood to lose by joining the Tories in 2010, I don't see them losing much more if they stick in government if they can. Partially because they don't have much more to lose. May as well go out with a bang than a whimper.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP fading fast?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592

    I'm not surprised at that at all - just because Clegg wants a Con/Lib coalition, doesn't mean it'll go through. He needs the support of his party, and given their brand has been so damaged in the last five years, they'll be very cautious of a second coalition.
    Yes indeed. I can just about believe Clegg would genuinely want to go into coalition again, that he shares the view that if the LD numbers together with Con is enough for a majority, they have to take it. Power first and all that. But as bruised and battered as they are and will be, I cannot see the remainder of the party thinking the continued cost worth what little power they would have. That doesn't mean the party has no point, as some claim, but it is a reasonable assessment that the price of further coalition is not worth the cost to the party or country (parties often conflating the two of course). Half of LD voters jumped ship immediately in 2010, but they've gone down even further since then, particularly in the last year, and that says to me those who had stuck with them in 2010-13 did not think the cost was worth what they were getting out of it. And the parties MPs seem unlikely to think different I suspect, at the prospect of doing that again.
    The LD's have lost what they reasonably stood to lose by joining the Tories in 2010, I don't see them losing much more if they stick in government if they can. Partially because they don't have much more to lose. May as well go out with a bang than a whimper.
    I agree. But there are a few hard core plotters waiting the moment to sieze power.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rod

    They have probably already all voted by post.
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Lib Dems are revolting

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/593528976762478592

    I'm not surprised at that at all - just because Clegg wants a Con/Lib coalition, doesn't mean it'll go through. He needs the support of his party, and given their brand has been so damaged in the last five years, they'll be very cautious of a second coalition.
    Yes indeed. I can just about believe Clegg would genuinely want to go into coalition again, that he shares the view that if the LD numbers together with Con is enough for a majority, they have to take it. Power first and all that. But as bruised and battered as they are and will be, I cannot see the remainder of the party thinking the continued cost worth what little power they would have. That doesn't mean the party has no point, as some claim, but it is a reasonable assessment that the price of further coalition is not worth the cost to the party or country (parties often conflating the two of course). Half of LD voters jumped ship immediately in 2010, but they've gone down even further since then, particularly in the last year, and that says to me those who had stuck with them in 2010-13 did not think the cost was worth what they were getting out of it. And the parties MPs seem unlikely to think different I suspect, at the prospect of doing that again.
    But they have nothing to loose by going into Coalition with the Tories and potentially a lot to gain.

    All those voters who are upset with a coalition have already gone-but there are plenty who might come back-especially during a Euro referendum.

    A Euro referendum that that the IN side win could be a massive boost for the Lib Dems in 2020
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,955
    Bakcbench Tories will be just as hostile to a full coalition, but as mathematically a Tory-LD coalition is unlikely to have a majority anyway confidence and supply is more likely
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    TGOHF said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Warm cuddly civic nationalism... http://t.co/pljoXFt8Q0

    Charming.

    Twitter is evil.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP fading fast?

    Rod whats your latest prediction on the election outcome?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Casino_Royale said:

    Those "leaked" £8bn of welfare cuts seem well-thought through and eminently sensible to me.

    To pay for tax cuts for the well off.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP fading fast?

    Complete lack of coverage of Ukip
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    Casino_Royale said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hate Labour, and detect no sympathy for it. I don't know where all these "likes" come from.

    Facebook?

    Trade Union Pilgrims??

    Everyday working people?
This discussion has been closed.