Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Sounds like 44+ a few others outside of top 50 (say 49 in total)
Plus 10 LD - 45 SNP gives net gains of about 14 ie 272
Cons 306 add 15 LD -49=272
Betfair 1.31/4.0 most seats looks odd to me
How can Labour lose 45 to the SNP ? They only have 41 seats today.
Why 43 ? I am not just banking on this poll giving 43 out of the top 50 CON-LAB seats. 35 is enough. Labour will get another 8 or so in the 51 - 75 band. So we end up with 43.
That is why electionforecast is saying 270 and there are not even saying Labour will be wiped out in Scotland. I am giving Labour only 1 seat in Scotland.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Ed for me has been a revelation. He's calm, funny, enthusiastic and really quite likeable.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
Speedy Will be interesting to see who is PB's own Nate Silver once the PB forecast competition is decided
I'd go Tories 285 Lab 265, SNP 55, LD 25 right now.
It's almost impossible to imagine what the new parliament will be like if 50 odd snp MPs are really elected next week. That's a huge phalanx. Nothing like it since Irish Nationalists of a century or more ago. The atmosphere will be very different, never mind the political plotting.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
Clegg, useless iPad
Does even Liberals listen to this voice in the wilderness ? He is a total non-entity.
Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
Labour don't have to be the largest party.
They need 260 seats to have a very good chance of EICINPIPM, or at least EICIPM in everyone;s pocket. At 270 EICINPIPM is certain.
260 seats is Labour abstains the Queens speech; 265 Ye He is PM... Just... 270 is nailed on.
63 SNP/Plaid makes it very hard for Labour to allow the Tories into power. The SNP has created a Morton's Fork Coup and it's true that there isn't a lot of hope for Labour.
BUt Ed BELIEVES in Ed. The option to accept power and believe he can make a difference will trump every rational consideration, every thought about the Amendments the SNP will kill him with (e.g. Amendment to Trident bill - two boats built on the Clyde, two boats in Devonport - SNP/Tory majority for Amendment - then what does he do).
But he is a believer in Ed. He will think he can get past this.
I thought the SNP would vote against Trident !
The SNP will stop Trident 2.
It is easier to stop renewal with clever Amendments than to vote against it and see Labour and Tory MPs vote it through 500 to 50.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
I do wonder how much of Clegg's pro-Blue speak this week is due to his need for tactical votes in Hallam.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Ed for me has been a revelation. He's calm, funny, enthusiastic and really quite likeable.
I have seen Ed in situations where he is very funny in a street-wise sense. Sadly he cannot re-create that in the "can't make a mistake" bubble.
Having said that, to go to the Brand grotto was a risk !
Just realised there is an inevitable and fundamental breaking point in any "Lab-SNP" alliance, formal, informal or under-the-table.
Holyrood 2016.
Is Sturgeon going to ask for another referendum in that Holyrood manifesto? I think she has to (even if she doesn't want to) - her 100,000 new members will go ballistic if they think a precious opportunity to win is being lost.
At that point I cannot see how Labour could be in any sort of accommodation with the Nats, who will explicitly be trying to break up the country - again. Labour in Scotland will be fighting and voting against the referendum being held, yet Labour in London will have to agree to the referendum (on breaking up Britain) to maintain SNP support.
The paradoxes and impossibilities go on, but you see the point.
The alliance will not hold past Holyrood. The contradictions are too great.
Miliband has already ruled out allowing another referendum, any concessions to the SNP would probably be on condition of Sturgeon not including it in the 2016 manifesto.
If Miliband only had 270 seats, he wouldn't necessarily be in a position to stop it. Other parties can put forward legislation too.
But could Sturgeon sell the concession of No Referendum in 2016 Holyrood to her party? Perhaps a few of the wiser souls, but she now has 80,000 nutty new members, too.
Tricky for her. She would find it very hard to convince them.
The Nats are about to discover that you can have too much of a good thing. 1. Labour will have nothing to lose if the polls are correct. Possibly zero seats. 2. Labour are unionists and won't want to risk the break-up of the union by giving too much to the SNP. 3. The Nats will have many new MPs who are fanatical separatists so the room for manoeuvre is minimal. 4. The SNP membership may well be more fanatical. 5. Don't underestimate Miliband. He may well gamble that another election is in Labour's interests (see point 1). 6. Hubris is the most dangerous emotion for a political party in a democracy. The SNP are already displaying it. Beware.
I expect Labour to hold the SNP at arms length and we'll have another election before the year is out.
On topic - what do we think about Ukip and the Greens in these seats? Ukip on 11 and Greens on 5 seem quite high to me. As Kipper who wouldn't vote Tory in such a seat perhaps I'm not best placed to comment on this, but something keeps nagging away at me that the Greens aren't going to do quite as well as the polls are suggesting.
'I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.'
Bring it on.
Shouldn't you be saying that Cameron looks ill,that's much more dramatic than tired and worn-out?
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
I do wonder how much of Clegg's pro-Blue speak this week is due to his need for tactical votes in Hallam.
I wrote that a couple of days back. It is a dog whistle to the Tories of Hallam.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Does this explain Labour's current surge in the polls?
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
'I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.'
Bring it on.
Shouldn't you be saying that Cameron looks ill,that's much more dramatic than tired and worn-out?
Just realised there is an inevitable and fundamental breaking point in any "Lab-SNP" alliance, formal, informal or under-the-table.
Holyrood 2016.
Is Sturgeon going to ask for another referendum in that Holyrood manifesto? I think she has to (even if she doesn't want to) - her 100,000 new members will go ballistic if they think a precious opportunity to win is being lost.
At that point I cannot see how Labour could be in any sort of accommodation with the Nats, who will explicitly be trying to break up the country - again. Labour in Scotland will be fighting and voting against the referendum being held, yet Labour in London will have to agree to the referendum (on breaking up Britain) to maintain SNP support.
The paradoxes and impossibilities go on, but you see the point.
The alliance will not hold past Holyrood. The contradictions are too great.
Miliband has already ruled out allowing another referendum, any concessions to the SNP would probably be on condition of Sturgeon not including it in the 2016 manifesto.
If Miliband only had 270 seats, he wouldn't necessarily be in a position to stop it. Other parties can put forward legislation too.
But could Sturgeon sell the concession of No Referendum in 2016 Holyrood to her party? Perhaps a few of the wiser souls, but she now has 80,000 nutty new members, too.
Tricky for her. She would find it very hard to convince them.
The Nats are about to discover that you can have too much of a good thing. 1. Labour will have nothing to lose if the polls are correct. Possibly zero seats. 2. Labour are unionists and won't want to risk the break-up of the union by giving too much to the SNP. 3. The Nats will have many new MPs who are fanatical separatists so the room for manoeuvre is minimal. 4. The SNP membership may well be more fanatical. 5. Don't underestimate Miliband. He may well gamble that another election is in Labour's interests (see point 1). 6. Hubris is the most dangerous emotion for a political party in a democracy. The SNP are already displaying it. Beware.
I expect Labour to hold the SNP at arms length and we'll have another election before the year is out.
Hubris? A fair point in principle, but saw this tweet earlier -
Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon · 10 hrs 10 hours ago Forget polls - only votes win elections. The more seats @theSNP win, the stronger Scotland will be. Let's keep working hard. #GE15 #voteSNP
Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
I got the presidential elections spot on too, but Nate Silver missed the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections badly. To predict the result of a US presidential election is easy since it has only 50 states, to predict the result of a legislative election with hundreds of seats in FPTP systems (US Congress, House Of Commons ) is far different.
Predicting 42/50 States shouldn't be difficult in a Presidential election. Predicting most Senate and House seats isn't hard either.
Is there a single seat in the USA that is demographically trending republican ?
Virginia is fairly safe Democrat now I think
Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisiana, West Virginia were won twice by Clinton, but are now solidly Red. The Dakotas and Montana usually elected Democratic Senators and Congressmen, but now have four out of six Republican Senators.
Appalachia and the Mississippi valley might be politically trending Republican but I doubt they're demographically trending Republican - what they have are wwc voters switching from Dem to Rep.
By contrast many of the old mining / industrial areas in the Midlands and Yorkshire really are demographically trending Conservative with new housing being built along the motorways.
The atmosphere will be very different, never mind the political plotting.
Quite. Although here's a thing. Recently I read an account of the passing of the Great Reform Act of 1832. It would never have got through without the support of Daniel O'Connell's Irishmen!
On topic - what do we think about Ukip and the Greens in these seats? Ukip on 11 and Greens on 5 seem quite high to me. As Kipper who wouldn't vote Tory in such a seat perhaps I'm not best placed to comment on this, but something keeps nagging away at me that the Greens aren't going to do quite as well as the polls are suggesting.
These polls are probably equivalent to Ashcroft's first question in his constituency polls. It's unlikely the Greens would be averaging the same in marginals as nationwide.
Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
Labour don't have to be the largest party.
They need 260 seats to have a very good chance of EICINPIPM, or at least EICIPM in everyone;s pocket. At 270 EICINPIPM is certain.
260 seats is Labour abstains the Queens speech; 265 Ye He is PM... Just... 270 is nailed on.
63 SNP/Plaid makes it very hard for Labour to allow the Tories into power. The SNP has created a Morton's Fork Coup and it's true that there isn't a lot of hope for Labour.
BUt Ed BELIEVES in Ed. The option to accept power and believe he can make a difference will trump every rational consideration, every thought about the Amendments the SNP will kill him with (e.g. Amendment to Trident bill - two boats built on the Clyde, two boats in Devonport - SNP/Tory majority for Amendment - then what does he do).
But he is a believer in Ed. He will think he can get past this.
I thought the SNP would vote against Trident !
The SNP will stop Trident 2.
It is easier to stop renewal with clever Amendments than to vote against it and see Labour and Tory MPs vote it through 500 to 50.
But nuclear weapons have let us reduce military expenditure, without them we will be forced to triple defense spending on conventional weapons, not to mention that without WMD's we will be sitting ducks like Iraq under Saddam.
Every country in the world that doesn't have nukes wants to have nukes because it is a cheap deterrent, Iraq didn't had nukes and got invaded at the first opportunity because they didn't had nukes.
Dair Midterms are more difficult to forecast than general elections because of lower turnout, and higher turnout by voters from the opposition party, UK council or Euro elections would be the equivalent of US midterms. In US general elections Silver is very close to 100% accuracy
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
It is not quite possible that Sturgeon would have won the referendum that Salmond lost?
The Guardian: "Labour is unhappy about the make-up of the audience at Thursday’s BBC Question Time event.
Party sources said it is another example of the BBC giving into Cameron’s demands, as 50% of the audience will be from government parties. The split is Conservative 25%, Labour 25%, Lib Dem 25% and don’t knows 25%."
The Telegraph: "BBC accused of bias as Tories outnumbered two-to-one in Question Time debate audience"
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
I do wonder how much of Clegg's pro-Blue speak this week is due to his need for tactical votes in Hallam.
I wrote that a couple of days back. It is a dog whistle to the Tories of Hallam.
Speedy Will be interesting to see who is PB's own Nate Silver once the PB forecast competition is decided
I'd go Tories 285 Lab 265, SNP 55, LD 25 right now.
Very possible.
And in that outcome I would expect another election within a year.
Either PM EdM goes for another 20+ gains after a few populist measures and a trip to meet Obama.
Or complete chaos in Parliament forces another election.
Who do you think would benefit most out of that chaos in another election? With an SNP wipeout of all opposition north of the border, either that would be confirmed in a second election or someone, surely Labour, would benefit from more coalesced and perhaps even officially approved tactical voting to make some gains back (even if modest), but I really cannot guess what the response in England might be. The Tories would have been proven right about chaos, but would they be rewarded, as such, or would Labour get a boost despite the failure in order to prevent a repeat of the chaos?
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.
It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.
It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
Please excuse my ignorance but where is this post- I would love to read it.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Dave will be brown bread within 24 hours if he ruled out a Referendum.
IF the Dave is PM he knows he has to offer a Referendum-the solution to keeping the Lib Dems on-side is a free vote-which is probably quite a good idea as there are plenty of Labour MP's with UKIP chewing their backside who will support a Referendum
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
I do wonder how much of Clegg's pro-Blue speak this week is due to his need for tactical votes in Hallam.
I wrote that a couple of days back. It is a dog whistle to the Tories of Hallam.
From a couple of conversations I've had I suspect it might be working.
Just realised there is an inevitable and fundamental breaking point in any "Lab-SNP" alliance, formal, informal or under-the-table.
Holyrood 2016.
Is Sturgeon going to ask for another referendum in that Holyrood manifesto? I think she has to (even if she doesn't want to) - her 100,000 new members will go ballistic if they think a precious opportunity to win is being lost.
At that point I cannot see how Labour could be in any sort of accommodation with the Nats, who will explicitly be trying to break up the country - again. Labour in Scotland will be fighting and voting against the referendum being held, yet Labour in London will have to agree to the referendum (on breaking up Britain) to maintain SNP support.
The paradoxes and impossibilities go on, but you see the point.
The alliance will not hold past Holyrood. The contradictions are too great.
Miliband has already ruled out allowing another referendum, any concessions to the SNP would probably be on condition of Sturgeon not including it in the 2016 manifesto.
If Miliband only had 270 seats, he wouldn't necessarily be in a position to stop it. Other parties can put forward legislation too.
But could Sturgeon sell the concession of No Referendum in 2016 Holyrood to her party? Perhaps a few of the wiser souls, but she now has 80,000 nutty new members, too.
Tricky for her. She would find it very hard to convince them.
The Nats are about to discover that you can have too much of a good thing. 1. Labour will have nothing to lose if the polls are correct. Possibly zero seats. 2. Labour are unionists and won't want to risk the break-up of the union by giving too much to the SNP. 3. The Nats will have many new MPs who are fanatical separatists so the room for manoeuvre is minimal. 4. The SNP membership may well be more fanatical. 5. Don't underestimate Miliband. He may well gamble that another election is in Labour's interests (see point 1). 6. Hubris is the most dangerous emotion for a political party in a democracy. The SNP are already displaying it. Beware.
I expect Labour to hold the SNP at arms length and we'll have another election before the year is out.
Hubris? A fair point in principle, but saw this tweet earlier -
Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon · 10 hrs 10 hours ago Forget polls - only votes win elections. The more seats @theSNP win, the stronger Scotland will be. Let's keep working hard. #GE15 #voteSNP
We should not interrupt Sturgeon, but what she is peddling will make Scotland weaker and smaller.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
Sounds like a Con lead of 2-3%, which would fit in with the overall narrative everywhere bar YG / Populus.
It's pretty much down to this. Will the Labour=SNP scare mongering get the last 2%-3% the Tories need before May 7th or has it already given all it's going to give.
The Comres poll says that there is plenty of squeeze left for the Tories.
Worth remembering that some of Ashcroft's marginals were last polled at 6-7% swing time. 3.5% now.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Dave will be brown bread within 24 hours if he ruled out a Referendum.
IF the Dave is PM he knows he has to offer a Referendum-the solution to keeping the Lib Dems on-side is a free vote-which is probably quite a good idea as there are plenty of Labour MP's with UKIP chewing their backside who will support a Referendum
That is a replay of 2010. He ruled it out then because of the coalition and he will rule it out now at the first opportunity. Also there won't be a pro-referendum majority in the HoC in a free vote, due to UKIP having less MP's than the LD but also because the Tories have far more pro-EU MP's than Labour has anti-EU MP's.
An EU referendum becomes a possibility when either UKIP have more MP's than the LD or when Labour is headed by a euroskeptic.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of margieemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Richard-we wont get a referendum under Ed will we?
I WANT A F***ING Referendum!!
I am nearly 48 and no-one has ever allowed me to have a say.
I am not a big fan of Dave but either he or Ed will be PM next Friday
Only one of them will give me a Referendum
You won't get one with Dave either, the LD's will provide him with an excuse not to do one, actually 25 excuses, one for each LD MP.
Clergy has said a referendum is not a red line for him.
I do wonder how much of Clegg's pro-Blue speak this week is due to his need for tactical votes in Hallam.
Good point (tangentially) Clegg is quite likely to lose his seat, and even if scrapes through, he might not be leader. Will the next Lib Dem leader feel obliged to adhere to Clegg's pledges (no deal with DUP, SNP etc)? I doubt it. Why would they?
So all these Clegg remarks are quite probably worthless.
If anything it's probably a bit irritating for those in his party who don't need to rely on Tory tactical votes to the same degree Clegg does, who might feel they will catch flak for it in their areas as Clegg tries to save his own seat.
And while I do hope he retains it - if nothing else, I think the LD attempt to recover will be much more interesting if they can have the electorate decapitate their leadership for them than if he is still in the parliamentary party - any attempt of his to retain the leadership is surely futile, so he's not helping the party much if his pro-Tory interpreted remarks have an impact elsewhere.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
But could Sturgeon sell the concession of No Referendum in 2016 Holyrood to her party? Perhaps a few of the wiser souls, but she now has 80,000 nutty new members, too.
Tricky for her. She would find it very hard to convince them.
The Nats are about to discover that you can have too much of a good thing. 1. Labour will have nothing to lose if the polls are correct. Possibly zero seats. 2. Labour are unionists and won't want to risk the break-up of the union by giving too much to the SNP. 3. The Nats will have many new MPs who are fanatical separatists so the room for manoeuvre is minimal. 4. The SNP membership may well be more fanatical. 5. Don't underestimate Miliband. He may well gamble that another election is in Labour's interests (see point 1). 6. Hubris is the most dangerous emotion for a political party in a democracy. The SNP are already displaying it. Beware.
I expect Labour to hold the SNP at arms length and we'll have another election before the year is out.
Hubris? A fair point in principle, but saw this tweet earlier -
Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon · 10 hrs 10 hours ago Forget polls - only votes win elections. The more seats @theSNP win, the stronger Scotland will be. Let's keep working hard. #GE15 #voteSNP
I'm describing a post election scenario where Labour is destroyed in Scotland. Hubris will be impossible to avoid for the SNP. I remember the mood in Labour after 1997. I've been a member since 1996 and campaigned for Labour in 1997 and every election since. A lot of the membership thought that the world had changed and behaved accordingly. But the wiser heads realised that the wheel turns and we wouldn't always be that popular. History suggests they were right. The SNP will have similar internal tensions magnified by the independence issue and the new MPs.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Ed for me has been a revelation. He's calm, funny, enthusiastic and really quite likeable.
That explains why the polls are moving in the Tories direction.
Speedy Will be interesting to see who is PB's own Nate Silver once the PB forecast competition is decided
I'd go Tories 285 Lab 265, SNP 55, LD 25 right now.
Very possible.
And in that outcome I would expect another election within a year.
Either PM EdM goes for another 20+ gains after a few populist measures and a trip to meet Obama.
Or complete chaos in Parliament forces another election.
Who do you think would benefit most out of that chaos in another election? With an SNP wipeout of all opposition north of the border, either that would be confirmed in a second election or someone, surely Labour, would benefit from more coalesced and perhaps even officially approved tactical voting to make some gains back (even if modest), but I really cannot guess what the response in England might be. The Tories would have been proven right about chaos, but would they be rewarded, as such, or would Labour get a boost despite the failure in order to prevent a repeat of the chaos?
Who knows - its uncharted territory and so many variables. For example what leadership will the Conservatives have and what will be the effect of UKIP having 50+ second places.
Then there could be outside complications - Grexit for example.
I think the SNP surge has a bit more to run and getting over 55% of the vote is looking increasingly achievable. I have already noticed the Scottish media already starting to soften their approach to the SNP, as they face the reality that much of their readership are now SNP supporters, should they continue demonising the SNP this will start to really hit their sales. This more balanced reporting will no doubt generate more % points for the SNP. Even the MSM seem to be producing fairer articles, must be time for Murdoch to dust off his Twitter account !!
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58) E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46) London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73) North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29) North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75) South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84) South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55) W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59) Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54) Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59) Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40) N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.
Ed for me has been a revelation. He's calm, funny, enthusiastic and really quite likeable.
That explains why the polls are moving in the Tories direction.
And why labour are going to lose every seat in Scotland despite being in opposition
'Clegg has ruled out any government relying on DUP support? Without at least DUP support how on earth does he expect to even get the Queen's Speech past?'
This is the same person that made a personal vow to scrap tuition fees in 2010 or had you forgotten?
True, but in that case anything Clegg says we can't take at face value then. Even the stuff on the EU ref, which looks positive for the prospects of a Con-Lib coalition.
Comments
Otherwise, your analysis is OK.
This is my take:
257 + 1 [ Galloway ] -40 [ SNP ] +43 [ Tory ] + 10 [ LD ] = 271.
Why 43 ? I am not just banking on this poll giving 43 out of the top 50 CON-LAB seats. 35 is enough. Labour will get another 8 or so in the 51 - 75 band. So we end up with 43.
That is why electionforecast is saying 270 and there are not even saying Labour will be wiped out in Scotland. I am giving Labour only 1 seat in Scotland.
It is easier to stop renewal with clever Amendments than to vote against it and see Labour and Tory MPs vote it through 500 to 50.
And in that outcome I would expect another election within a year.
Either PM EdM goes for another 20+ gains after a few populist measures and a trip to meet Obama.
Or complete chaos in Parliament forces another election.
Having said that, to go to the Brand grotto was a risk !
1. Labour will have nothing to lose if the polls are correct. Possibly zero seats.
2. Labour are unionists and won't want to risk the break-up of the union by giving too much to the SNP.
3. The Nats will have many new MPs who are fanatical separatists so the room for manoeuvre is minimal.
4. The SNP membership may well be more fanatical.
5. Don't underestimate Miliband. He may well gamble that another election is in Labour's interests (see point 1).
6. Hubris is the most dangerous emotion for a political party in a democracy. The SNP are already displaying it. Beware.
I expect Labour to hold the SNP at arms length and we'll have another election before the year is out.
'I think Labour have finally realised that ED is their black swan.He`s a fresh face with interesting ideas running against Cameron who visibly looks tired and worn-out.
Labour might be pushing Ed on our faces everyday till the election.'
Bring it on.
Shouldn't you be saying that Cameron looks ill,that's much more dramatic than tired and worn-out?
ED = Electoral Dysfunction.
Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon
· 10 hrs 10 hours ago
Forget polls - only votes win elections. The more seats @theSNP win, the stronger Scotland will be. Let's keep working hard. #GE15 #voteSNP
By contrast many of the old mining / industrial areas in the Midlands and Yorkshire really are demographically trending Conservative with new housing being built along the motorways.
Quite. Although here's a thing. Recently I read an account of the passing of the Great Reform Act of 1832. It would never have got through without the support of Daniel O'Connell's Irishmen!
Every country in the world that doesn't have nukes wants to have nukes because it is a cheap deterrent, Iraq didn't had nukes and got invaded at the first opportunity because they didn't had nukes.
IF the Dave is PM he knows he has to offer a Referendum-the solution to keeping the Lib Dems on-side is a free vote-which is probably quite a good idea as there are plenty of Labour MP's with UKIP chewing their backside who will support a Referendum
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/nigel-lawson-criticises-the-tories-election-campaign/
I suspect the UK military will soon consist of:
Trident
Ceremonial soldiers for the tourists
And f'ck all in between
Whereas its the bit in between which is the important part.
Worth remembering that some of Ashcroft's marginals were last polled at 6-7% swing time. 3.5% now.
He ruled it out then because of the coalition and he will rule it out now at the first opportunity.
Also there won't be a pro-referendum majority in the HoC in a free vote, due to UKIP having less MP's than the LD but also because the Tories have far more pro-EU MP's than Labour has anti-EU MP's.
An EU referendum becomes a possibility when either UKIP have more MP's than the LD or when Labour is headed by a euroskeptic.
And while I do hope he retains it - if nothing else, I think the LD attempt to recover will be much more interesting if they can have the electorate decapitate their leadership for them than if he is still in the parliamentary party - any attempt of his to retain the leadership is surely futile, so he's not helping the party much if his pro-Tory interpreted remarks have an impact elsewhere.
Then there could be outside complications - Grexit for example.
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
1 week 1 hour 1 minute 1 second
Take more migrants or they will 'come through the window' says EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11572351/Take-more-migrants-or-they-will-come-through-the-window-says-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html …