Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
Channel 4 reported it last week or so that Northfield and Halifax were considered by some "senior Tory" or whatever they were speaking to as the best prospects of Con gains from Labour.
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough Cooper: Brentford Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley Balls: Hove Reeves: Hove Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar Bryant: Lincoln McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford Corbyn: Peterborough Twigg: Bury North Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale St Helens North candidate: Rossendale Kendall: Redditch
I think what the marginal polls are telling us is broadly consistent with YouGov's Nowcast which is the largest constituency-specific poll out there comprised of a very large sample size and being continuously updated by a few thousand. For me this is the Gold Standard:
"Today, YouGov publishes it's 'Nowcast', which will be updated regularly all the way through to the election. It makes use of over 150,000 interviews that have never before been published, using a special two-stage voting intention question that tends to be better at teasing out local tactical voting patterns. It will be supplemented by around 5,000 new interviews every day until election day.
Using the latest statistical techniques, our data team led by Stanford Professor Doug Rivers (YouGov's Chief Scientist) has developed a model that combines the not insignificant number of panelists we have in each constituency (typically between 200 and 500 involved in this study) with imputed results from regional patterns based on detailed demographics, income, ethnicity, work type and of course past voting intention. With this uniquely large dataset, we believe this represents the best available estimate of the current state of the race."
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is
I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.
Not going back in at 1.6.
Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
AMS is a fantastic system that works well anywhere it is found.
It forces parties to compromise and build a consensus while FPTP forces aggressive tribalism which is usually very bad for the electorate.
bigjohnowls Maybe, but Ed M could be the first PM to be behind on seats and voteshare since Ramsay Macdonald, held to ransom by Sturgeon, and the weakest PM in postwar history, if the Tories squeeze a bit more from the UKIP vote could still be stopped
Channel 4 reported it last week or so that Northfield and Halifax were considered by some "senior Tory" or whatever they were speaking to as the best prospects of Con gains from Labour.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
AMS is a fantastic system that works well anywhere it is found.
It forces parties to compromise and build a consensus while FPTP forces aggressive tribalism which is usually very bad for the electorate.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough Cooper: Brentford Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley Balls: Hove Reeves: Hove Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar Bryant: Lincoln McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford Corbyn: Peterborough Twigg: Bury North Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale St Helens North candidate: Rossendale Kendall: Redditch
Given how finely balanced the CON/LAB marginals are, this will no doubt discourage Tories in Scotland voting tactically for SLAB. Every SLAB seat saved could make all the difference to which party wins most seats. This just leaves the Scottish Tories with the option of trying to assist SLID, that said the Tory and SLID candidates in Gordon appear to be at each others throats fighting for tactical votes.
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is
I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.
Not going back in at 1.6.
Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is
I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.
Not going back in at 1.6.
Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
You can get Labour at 13.5 on betfair at the moment to win most seats in England. In 2010 Labour were 107 behind.
If they won 43 seats (I know a few of that list are in Wales...) - then they are only 21 behind. This list obviously doesn't include any seats outside the top 50.
Surely the Tories are going to lose more to UKIP than Labour (Clacton seems pretty nailed on). Seems likely also Labour will pick up more Lib Dem gains than the Tories. That would make it pretty close.
13.5 seems pretty tempting- or have I missed something?
I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor
That's his problem , not yours. Are you sure you are not Dan Hodges ?
If EICIPM on those numbers, I wouldn't really want to be prime minister. Will be an absolute nightmare, with labours reputation in England being tested, I think. Also, how would Ed spin the election as a success? He'd have barely moved on 2010 numbers.
Apologies, got most acronyms on here, but EICIPM? Much appreciated if someone could help out a newbie :-)
Ed is Crap Is PM
Thank you. Although part of me wished I hadn't asked...
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Catching up due to flight-related inability to access internet... Stonking poll for the SNP, but who could miss that 1/3rd increase in the Tory share!!! Utterly amazing....... Shame it'll lead to 0 seats.
Also, I note that May2015 commissioned their own poll which had the Tories ahead. Surprised they didn't ask for that to be re-done
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough Cooper: Brentford Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley Balls: Hove Reeves: Hove Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar Bryant: Lincoln McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford Corbyn: Peterborough Twigg: Bury North Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale St Helens North candidate: Rossendale Kendall: Redditch
Why are none of them in Scotland saving SLAB? Mactaggart was born in Glasgow.
The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
You can get Labour at 13.5 on betfair at the moment to win most seats in England. In 2010 Labour were 107 behind.
If they won 43 seats (I know a few of that list are in Wales...) - then they are only 21 behind. This list obviously doesn't include any seats outside the top 50.
Surely the Tories are going to lose more to UKIP than Labour (Clacton seems pretty nailed on). Seems likely also Labour will pick up more Lib Dem gains than the Tories. That would make it pretty close.
13.5 seems pretty tempting- or have I missed something?
yes. The tories are going to win more seats from the libdems than labour will.
I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor
That's his problem , not yours. Are you sure you are not Dan Hodges ?
Lol, quite sure. I'm neutral on who is PM because I detest traitorous Labour and the Conservative economic dream of trickle down has been hijacked with any recovery in the pockets of the rich, in short, they've buggered it, so a plague on all their houses and bring on the new centrists. David Owen would have cleaned up now.
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough Cooper: Brentford Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley Balls: Hove Reeves: Hove Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar Bryant: Lincoln McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford Corbyn: Peterborough Twigg: Bury North Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale St Helens North candidate: Rossendale Kendall: Redditch
Why are none of them in Scotland saving SLAB? Mactaggart was born in Glasgow.
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Sunil/Flightpath/Dair/Surbiton Yes, the AMS or MMS works best, preserves the constituency link on the first vote, with a more proportional vote on the second, works fine in New Zealand, Germany and at Holyrood
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
I am not convinced that this is such a great poll for Labour. There is some evidence beginning to accumulate that the polls are moving in a Tory direction. If that happens by even say a couple of points then surely quite a number of these seats will stay blue.
I agree. Now if the average gap was as high as 10, then Labour would be happy. But 3.5 is getting within MOE and only a little incumbency bonus needed to keep most. After all Labour's voters are younger, have a lower % with a registered vote and have less regard for their Leader.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
STV with around 5 members per constituency so Cornwall would be one constituency.
Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310 Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.
how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
So could Sinn Fein.
The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
Only possible gain for SF would be Down South. Foyle looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.
There has been no polling in NI !
That's another thing about this GE. I'm actually rooting for SF to win seats, from the SDLP only, on the basis they won't take them in Parliament and that's one less MP in Ed's column!
Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310 Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.
how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
So could Sinn Fein.
The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
Only possible gain for SF would be Down South. Foyle looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.
There has been no polling in NI !
That's another thing about this GE. I'm actually rooting for SF to win seats, from the SDLP only, on the basis they won't take them in Parliament and that's one less MP in Ed's column!
Only Foyle would be within reach. 12% SDLP majority in 2010.
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.
It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.
It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
On topic: the 3.5% swing is much the same as the national polls and typical of the Ashcroft constituency polls, is it not?
My mind is on tonights footy. How does a 3.5% swing translate into a majority. In a notional 2010 dead heat seat of 50 000 electors, it would be a Lab majority of 1700. Is that correct?
Let's be honest though, their lead in the key marginals is the one big thing Labour has had to hang its hat on. And just a 3.5% swing according to the polls?
I suspect the Tories will be quite happy with that, especially given the demise of the Lib Dem vote.
UKIP+LD 'worried' about SNP influence on Labour: 78.8% of voters UKIP+LD who want SNP kept out: 68.2% of voters UKIP+LD open to changing vote: 42.2% of voters - leaving 7% of total VI up for a "squeeze".
Can't help thinking that much of the 3% lead will be gone by 10pm next Thursday.
Every single Scottish poll is hanging Labour out to dry.
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.
It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.
It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
Re Tories and PR, can't find the post to quote from now, but I've long favoured "more proportional" representation rather than out and out PR. It needs to be simple and not leave voters confused.
I like the system we have for the Euros, can't see why we can't do the same but on a much more localised basis - say 10 current seats merged together to elect 10 MPs on a list system. At least everyone's vote would count then and the result wouldn't be too far removed from the % shares in that "super-constituency".
The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),
But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.
LOL, you think that will be a factor when PM beckons
You have to be careful. SNP is 47. This could be "out" by 8 - 12. Most from Labour. So Labour @270 may be exaggerated. Similarly, I feel, LD @27.
So the Tory lead is probably 15 as in SPIN. Having said that, presumably some Scottish seats are still being given to Labour. THey probably have some information.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.
The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),
But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
I remember you saying a few weeks ago that David Cameron might have a very lucky escape at 5 minutes to midnight.
If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.
It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.
It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
Hannan is a good egg, although I would love to know how he gets on with former writing partner Mr Carswell since the latter defected.
Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.
Vote for the man with the fake estuary English accent and glottal stops. Works for me.
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.
I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
Nobody would vote for anyone other than the Conservatives or Labour, on that basis. A third of the country don't like either.
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR? Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent? Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government. Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
Yes I'm not on Hannan's wing of the party but on PR he is right. Those defending FPTP have not appreciated how this election will render that system not fit for purpose.
Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.
I saw that seems to be happening in Hallam already.
On topic: the 3.5% swing is much the same as the national polls and typical of the Ashcroft constituency polls, is it not?
My mind is on tonights footy. How does a 3.5% swing translate into a majority. In a notional 2010 dead heat seat of 50 000 electors, it would be a Lab majority of 1700. Is that correct?
No!
It means a dead heat becomes a 7% gap (Same effect as if 3.5% change their mind or "swing"). so 25K each becomes a 3500 majority.
However it's never this simple...even if the result last time was Lab 25,000 Con 25,000
And became
Lab 19,500 Con 16,000 Monster Raving Loony 14,500
It's still a 3.5% swing Con --> Lab
But a 20% swing Lab --> MRL because: 50% Lab has become 39% (-11%) 0% MRL has become 29% (+29%)
So in theory a 40% change in relative vote share has happened because 20% of the electorate have changed their vote or "swung"
"So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much."
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I've only seen three UKIP posters and they were on consecutive houses and it made me flinch. I felt like I'd driven into a leni riefenstahl movie.
I'm sure when the pleasant young pollsters start asking their questions the respondents go onto their best behaviour and UKIP becomes 'don't know'.
I understood that momentum was the most important factor and when you look at the last weeks polls, excluding the daily you gov and two populus, the conservatives have lead in all of them. Comments on this forum reflect the political support of the poster and is understandably talked up for their cause. Any independent commentator must draw the conclusion that it is too close to call but continuing polls showing the conservatives solidifying their lead or indeed expanding it will likely result in at the least a minority conservative led government.
So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),
But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
I remember you saying a few weeks ago that David Cameron might have a very lucky escape at 5 minutes to midnight.
If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
Lucky?
If the Tories get to form the next government it will be a huge achievement.
Given the circumstances Cameron inherited last time (with no great enthusiastic electoral support) coupled with the removal of the Lib Dems as a second left-of-centre opposition party, I thought the Tories were nailed on for one-term only. I honestly thought they'd be mega unpopular by now, victims of voters with short memories and no great love of the Tories anyway.
Then Labour made Ed their leader. That offered some hope.
Now being this close in the polls just a week ago is a massive, massive bonus.
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is
I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.
Not going back in at 1.6.
Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
Well played Sir !
Whats your position on the seats ?
well seeing as you asked... I'm Blues most seats +700, Reds +10
is it too late for OGH to vote blue and help secure £70 for PB and not £1....
Farron on Newsnight left open LD going with Lab even if SNP support required - though of course SNP support would not be official.
One stat to look for which I don't think anyone has mentioned so far:
Will Con beat Lab + LD?
Current SPIN:
Con 286
Lab 267 + LD 24 = 291
Now on the face of it that "contest" is irrelevant. But I suspect it may matter when the LDs take their decision - ie they will be less inclined to support Lab if Lab + LD is less than Con.
So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.
Because the idea of a law to prevent tax increases is not in the Conservative manifesto, the House of Lords is entitled to vote it down.
This is nonsense. The Conservatives' proposal may be idiotic, but the House of Lords has no right to veto or amend money bills (see section 1 of the Parliament Act 1911).
So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
So it would seem. And despite some positive movement in recent days, disagreeing with it still relies on yet more significant positive movement that cannot be assumed.
Comments
Indeed. That is why the market is moving against labour seats.
Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
"Today, YouGov publishes it's 'Nowcast', which will be updated regularly all the way through to the election. It makes use of over 150,000 interviews that have never before been published, using a special two-stage voting intention question that tends to be better at teasing out local tactical voting patterns. It will be supplemented by around 5,000 new interviews every day until election day.
Using the latest statistical techniques, our data team led by Stanford Professor Doug Rivers (YouGov's Chief Scientist) has developed a model that combines the not insignificant number of panelists we have in each constituency (typically between 200 and 500 involved in this study) with imputed results from regional patterns based on detailed demographics, income, ethnicity, work type and of course past voting intention. With this uniquely large dataset, we believe this represents the best available estimate of the current state of the race."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/01/what-does-yougov-nowcast-mean-parties/
Not going back in at 1.6.
Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
It forces parties to compromise and build a consensus while FPTP forces aggressive tribalism which is usually very bad for the electorate.
The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
Personally, I quite like the Holyrood system. Mix of constituency and list.
Whats your position on the seats ?
In 2010 Labour were 107 behind.
If they won 43 seats (I know a few of that list are in Wales...) - then they are only 21 behind.
This list obviously doesn't include any seats outside the top 50.
Surely the Tories are going to lose more to UKIP than Labour (Clacton seems pretty nailed on).
Seems likely also Labour will pick up more Lib Dem gains than the Tories. That would make it pretty close.
13.5 seems pretty tempting- or have I missed something?
Also, I note that May2015 commissioned their own poll which had the Tories ahead. Surprised they didn't ask for that to be re-done
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
There has been no polling in NI !
EICIPM slightly more likely than yesterday
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
(no hyphen!!)
It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.
It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
Cheer up Mr Owls. You'll probably have a lead with tonight's yougov....EICIPM and all that, eh?
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/may2015_votingintentions.pdf
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
I suspect the Tories will be quite happy with that, especially given the demise of the Lib Dem vote.
Official measure = Lab 0.4% ahead
YouGovs only = Lab 0.9%
Non-YouGovs = 1.1% CON lead!
UKIP+LD 'worried' about SNP influence on Labour: 78.8% of voters
UKIP+LD who want SNP kept out: 68.2% of voters
UKIP+LD open to changing vote: 42.2% of voters - leaving 7% of total VI up for a "squeeze".
Can't help thinking that much of the 3% lead will be gone by 10pm next Thursday.
Every single Scottish poll is hanging Labour out to dry.
Thanks for the hard work
I like the system we have for the Euros, can't see why we can't do the same but on a much more localised basis - say 10 current seats merged together to elect 10 MPs on a list system. At least everyone's vote would count then and the result wouldn't be too far removed from the % shares in that "super-constituency".
That was how they described their February poll.
But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
And if the evidence from 2014 onwards is anything to go by, labour's turnout will underperform its poll score.
So the Tory lead is probably 15 as in SPIN. Having said that, presumably some Scottish seats are still being given to Labour. THey probably have some information.
So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.
Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
Indeed. Do English voters know it? maybe.
If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
Whoa-oh-oh
Su-ssu-sunil-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qBaBb1Y-U
https://twitter.com/harryaevans/status/593457297839562752
I want more than a referendum.
It means a dead heat becomes a 7% gap (Same effect as if 3.5% change their mind or "swing"). so 25K each becomes a 3500 majority.
However it's never this simple...even if the result last time was
Lab 25,000
Con 25,000
And became
Lab 19,500
Con 16,000
Monster Raving Loony 14,500
It's still a 3.5% swing Con --> Lab
But a 20% swing Lab --> MRL because:
50% Lab has become 39% (-11%)
0% MRL has become 29% (+29%)
So in theory a 40% change in relative vote share has happened because 20% of the electorate have changed their vote or "swung"
"So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much."
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I've only seen three UKIP posters and they were on consecutive houses and it made me flinch. I felt like I'd driven into a leni riefenstahl movie.
I'm sure when the pleasant young pollsters start asking their questions the respondents go onto their best behaviour and UKIP becomes 'don't know'.
Yougov just oozes know-how.
If the Tories get to form the next government it will be a huge achievement.
Given the circumstances Cameron inherited last time (with no great enthusiastic electoral support) coupled with the removal of the Lib Dems as a second left-of-centre opposition party, I thought the Tories were nailed on for one-term only. I honestly thought they'd be mega unpopular by now, victims of voters with short memories and no great love of the Tories anyway.
Then Labour made Ed their leader. That offered some hope.
Now being this close in the polls just a week ago is a massive, massive bonus.
http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
is it too late for OGH to vote blue and help secure £70 for PB and not £1....
One stat to look for which I don't think anyone has mentioned so far:
Will Con beat Lab + LD?
Current SPIN:
Con 286
Lab 267 + LD 24 = 291
Now on the face of it that "contest" is irrelevant. But I suspect it may matter when the LDs take their decision - ie they will be less inclined to support Lab if Lab + LD is less than Con.
Very close at the moment per SPIN.
Remember - in 2010 Lab + LD was greater than Con.