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  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I am not convinced that this is such a great poll for Labour.

    Indeed. That is why the market is moving against labour seats.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.

    I'm sorry about the impending obliteration of your favourite Liberal Democrat MPs in 9 days time, Mark.

    I do hope you won't be too upset, and that you'll recover.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Channel 4 reported it last week or so that Northfield and Halifax were considered by some "senior Tory" or whatever they were speaking to as the best prospects of Con gains from Labour.

    I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.

    I'm not being funny but they've both been tipped up here. Tbh I wonder if we sometimes hear our own feedback in the media....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
    Cooper: Brentford
    Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
    Balls: Hove
    Reeves: Hove
    Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
    Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
    Bryant: Lincoln
    McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
    Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
    Corbyn: Peterborough
    Twigg: Bury North
    Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
    St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
    Kendall: Redditch

    Yuk. What a sorry list of individuals that is.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    I think what the marginal polls are telling us is broadly consistent with YouGov's Nowcast which is the largest constituency-specific poll out there comprised of a very large sample size and being continuously updated by a few thousand. For me this is the Gold Standard:

    "Today, YouGov publishes it's 'Nowcast', which will be updated regularly all the way through to the election. It makes use of over 150,000 interviews that have never before been published, using a special two-stage voting intention question that tends to be better at teasing out local tactical voting patterns. It will be supplemented by around 5,000 new interviews every day until election day.

    Using the latest statistical techniques, our data team led by Stanford Professor Doug Rivers (YouGov's Chief Scientist) has developed a model that combines the not insignificant number of panelists we have in each constituency (typically between 200 and 500 involved in this study) with imputed results from regional patterns based on detailed demographics, income, ethnicity, work type and of course past voting intention. With this uniquely large dataset, we believe this represents the best available estimate of the current state of the race."

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/01/what-does-yougov-nowcast-mean-parties/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
    Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is :D
    I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.

    Not going back in at 1.6.

    Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    AMS is a fantastic system that works well anywhere it is found.

    It forces parties to compromise and build a consensus while FPTP forces aggressive tribalism which is usually very bad for the electorate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    bigjohnowls Maybe, but Ed M could be the first PM to be behind on seats and voteshare since Ramsay Macdonald, held to ransom by Sturgeon, and the weakest PM in postwar history, if the Tories squeeze a bit more from the UKIP vote could still be stopped
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Pulpstar said:

    Channel 4 reported it last week or so that Northfield and Halifax were considered by some "senior Tory" or whatever they were speaking to as the best prospects of Con gains from Labour.

    I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.

    I'm not being funny but they've both been tipped up here. Tbh I wonder if we sometimes hear our own feedback in the media....
    Ha. There's probably some truth in that!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    AMS is a fantastic system that works well anywhere it is found.

    It forces parties to compromise and build a consensus while FPTP forces aggressive tribalism which is usually very bad for the electorate.
    Shh TSE is desperate to do an AV Thread
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    You can vote for individual candidates in STV.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My thoughts exactly. Most of my dartboard favourites in one place.

    Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
    Cooper: Brentford
    Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
    Balls: Hove
    Reeves: Hove
    Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
    Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
    Bryant: Lincoln
    McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
    Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
    Corbyn: Peterborough
    Twigg: Bury North
    Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
    St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
    Kendall: Redditch

    Yuk. What a sorry list of individuals that is.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:
    Tories always join the party late ! I hope Labour will be more amenable to PR [ with the rout of the Scot base ].

    Personally, I quite like the Holyrood system. Mix of constituency and list.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Given how finely balanced the CON/LAB marginals are, this will no doubt discourage Tories in Scotland voting tactically for SLAB. Every SLAB seat saved could make all the difference to which party wins most seats. This just leaves the Scottish Tories with the option of trying to assist SLID, that said the Tory and SLID candidates in Gordon appear to be at each others throats fighting for tactical votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
    Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is :D
    I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.

    Not going back in at 1.6.

    Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
    Well played Sir !

    Whats your position on the seats ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
    Only possible gain for SF would be Foyle. Down South looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
    Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is :D
    I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.

    Not going back in at 1.6.

    Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
    Good work, BJO.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,360
    You can get Labour at 13.5 on betfair at the moment to win most seats in England.
    In 2010 Labour were 107 behind.

    If they won 43 seats (I know a few of that list are in Wales...) - then they are only 21 behind.
    This list obviously doesn't include any seats outside the top 50.

    Surely the Tories are going to lose more to UKIP than Labour (Clacton seems pretty nailed on).
    Seems likely also Labour will pick up more Lib Dem gains than the Tories. That would make it pretty close.

    13.5 seems pretty tempting- or have I missed something?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor

    That's his problem , not yours. Are you sure you are not Dan Hodges ?
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508

    If EICIPM on those numbers, I wouldn't really want to be prime minister. Will be an absolute nightmare, with labours reputation in England being tested, I think. Also, how would Ed spin the election as a success? He'd have barely moved on 2010 numbers.

    Apologies, got most acronyms on here, but EICIPM? Much appreciated if someone could help out a newbie :-)

    Ed is Crap Is PM
    Thank you. Although part of me wished I hadn't asked...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    You can Lay EICIPM at 1.69
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Catching up due to flight-related inability to access internet... Stonking poll for the SNP, but who could miss that 1/3rd increase in the Tory share!!! Utterly amazing....... :D Shame it'll lead to 0 seats. :(

    Also, I note that May2015 commissioned their own poll which had the Tories ahead. Surprised they didn't ask for that to be re-done :D

  • Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
    Cooper: Brentford
    Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
    Balls: Hove
    Reeves: Hove
    Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
    Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
    Bryant: Lincoln
    McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
    Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
    Corbyn: Peterborough
    Twigg: Bury North
    Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
    St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
    Kendall: Redditch

    Why are none of them in Scotland saving SLAB? Mactaggart was born in Glasgow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.

    Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?

    On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
    Only possible gain for SF would be Down South. Foyle looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
    I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.

    There has been no polling in NI !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    rkrkrk said:

    You can get Labour at 13.5 on betfair at the moment to win most seats in England.
    In 2010 Labour were 107 behind.

    If they won 43 seats (I know a few of that list are in Wales...) - then they are only 21 behind.
    This list obviously doesn't include any seats outside the top 50.

    Surely the Tories are going to lose more to UKIP than Labour (Clacton seems pretty nailed on).
    Seems likely also Labour will pick up more Lib Dem gains than the Tories. That would make it pretty close.

    13.5 seems pretty tempting- or have I missed something?

    yes. The tories are going to win more seats from the libdems than labour will.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    surbiton said:

    I'd think a national lead of 4% would keep DC in no 10, a Tory lead of 2-4 with EICIPM supported by SNP would spell the end of the Labour Party in government permanently. He needs to draw/win or lose by 4% plus or he's sunk along with Skeletor

    That's his problem , not yours. Are you sure you are not Dan Hodges ?
    Lol, quite sure. I'm neutral on who is PM because I detest traitorous Labour and the Conservative economic dream of trickle down has been hijacked with any recovery in the pockets of the rich, in short, they've buggered it, so a plague on all their houses and bring on the new centrists. David Owen would have cleaned up now.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
    Cooper: Brentford
    Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
    Balls: Hove
    Reeves: Hove
    Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
    Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
    Bryant: Lincoln
    McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
    Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
    Corbyn: Peterborough
    Twigg: Bury North
    Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
    St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
    Kendall: Redditch

    Why are none of them in Scotland saving SLAB? Mactaggart was born in Glasgow.
    Efficiency !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    These have tightened most seats to 10

    EICIPM slightly more likely than yesterday


    http://electionforecast.co.uk/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On topic: the 3.5% swing is much the same as the national polls and typical of the Ashcroft constituency polls, is it not?
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    You can Lay EICIPM at 1.69
    I have done so.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
    Only possible gain for SF would be Foyle. Down South looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
    I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.

    There has been no polling in NI !
    Sorry got Foyle and Down South mixed up - the latter has a 20% SDLP majority :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Do we know when the ComRes fieldwork was done?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited April 2015
    Sunil/Flightpath/Dair/Surbiton Yes, the AMS or MMS works best, preserves the constituency link on the first vote, with a more proportional vote on the second, works fine in New Zealand, Germany and at Holyrood
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680

    "This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"

    Is it?

    Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
    Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272

    I find the Tories just ahead.

    Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.

    That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.

    Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Oh dear that sounds bad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Beware tweeters hyping polls.. we've been disappointed before. Still, if it shows Tories ahead, Diamondium standard!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2015
    peterbuss said:

    I am not convinced that this is such a great poll for Labour. There is some evidence beginning to accumulate that the polls are moving in a Tory direction. If that happens by even say a couple of points then surely quite a number of these seats will stay blue.

    I agree. Now if the average gap was as high as 10, then Labour would be happy. But 3.5 is getting within MOE and only a little incumbency bonus needed to keep most. After all Labour's voters are younger, have a lower % with a registered vote and have less regard for their Leader.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    STV with around 5 members per constituency so Cornwall would be one constituency.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
    Only possible gain for SF would be Down South. Foyle looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
    I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.

    There has been no polling in NI !
    That's another thing about this GE. I'm actually rooting for SF to win seats, from the SDLP only, on the basis they won't take them in Parliament and that's one less MP in Ed's column!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:

    Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
    Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320

    Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.

    how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?
    Methinks you have forgotten the DUP .... Now will they get 9 or 10...could make all the difference.
    So could Sinn Fein.

    The SDLP seat count is soft at any rate.....
    Only possible gain for SF would be Down South. Foyle looks safe for the SDLP. Belfast South should be winnable for the DUP.
    I'll take you up on Belfast South - some have tipped SF in Foyle mind so I'm not 100% sure that is SDLP hold.

    There has been no polling in NI !
    That's another thing about this GE. I'm actually rooting for SF to win seats, from the SDLP only, on the basis they won't take them in Parliament and that's one less MP in Ed's column!
    Only Foyle would be within reach. 12% SDLP majority in 2010.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    These have tightened most seats to 10

    EICIPM slightly more likely than yesterday


    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Quietly, PC is doing better than expected a month back. Leanne Wood doing her job. Mind you, I would vote her, if I could.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Barnesian said:

    "This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"

    Is it?

    Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
    Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272

    I find the Tories just ahead.

    Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.

    That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.

    Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
    Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.

    It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.

    It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Oh dear that sounds bad.

    Cheer up Mr Owls. You'll probably have a lead with tonight's yougov....EICIPM and all that, eh?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736



    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
    How is EL-BOW looking!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    RobD said:

    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Beware tweeters hyping polls.. we've been disappointed before. Still, if it shows Tories ahead, Diamondium standard!
    BMG is the new Gold Standard!
    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/may2015_votingintentions.pdf

    :sunglasses:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633



    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
    Sun-il ?
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Barnesian said:

    "This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"

    Is it?

    Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
    Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272

    I find the Tories just ahead.

    Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.

    That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.

    Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
    What about the DUP ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/

    And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On topic: the 3.5% swing is much the same as the national polls and typical of the Ashcroft constituency polls, is it not?

    My mind is on tonights footy. How does a 3.5% swing translate into a majority. In a notional 2010 dead heat seat of 50 000 electors, it would be a Lab majority of 1700. Is that correct?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Todays COMRES marginals poll EICIPM

    Let's be honest though, their lead in the key marginals is the one big thing Labour has had to hang its hat on. And just a 3.5% swing according to the polls?

    I suspect the Tories will be quite happy with that, especially given the demise of the Lib Dem vote.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015



    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
    How is EL-BOW looking!
    So far this week:

    Official measure = Lab 0.4% ahead
    YouGovs only = Lab 0.9%
    Non-YouGovs = 1.1% CON lead!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    The SNP related supplementaries in the poll:

    UKIP+LD 'worried' about SNP influence on Labour: 78.8% of voters
    UKIP+LD who want SNP kept out: 68.2% of voters
    UKIP+LD open to changing vote: 42.2% of voters - leaving 7% of total VI up for a "squeeze".

    Can't help thinking that much of the 3% lead will be gone by 10pm next Thursday.

    Every single Scottish poll is hanging Labour out to dry.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Barnesian said:

    "This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"

    Is it?

    Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
    Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272

    I find the Tories just ahead.

    Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.

    That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.

    Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
    Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.

    It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.

    It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
    It really is very good.

    Thanks for the hard work
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    RobD said:

    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Beware tweeters hyping polls.. we've been disappointed before. Still, if it shows Tories ahead, Diamondium standard!
    BMG is the new Gold Standard!
    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/may2015_votingintentions.pdf

    :sunglasses:
    A delicious irony that May2015 commissioned it :D
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Re Tories and PR, can't find the post to quote from now, but I've long favoured "more proportional" representation rather than out and out PR. It needs to be simple and not leave voters confused.

    I like the system we have for the Euros, can't see why we can't do the same but on a much more localised basis - say 10 current seats merged together to elect 10 MPs on a list system. At least everyone's vote would count then and the result wouldn't be too far removed from the % shares in that "super-constituency".
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited April 2015
    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Do you have a link for that?

    That was how they described their February poll.
  • Having seen that Green boyzone political broadcast again tonight, it is a light relief from the others. Thumbs UP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    kle4 said:

    The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.

    Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?

    On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.

    If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),

    But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    olliebear said:

    DavidL said:

    This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.

    If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.

    Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.
    LOL, you think that will be a factor when PM beckons
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Can't help thinking that much of the 3% lead will be gone by 10pm next Thursday.

    And if the evidence from 2014 onwards is anything to go by, labour's turnout will underperform its poll score.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    These have tightened most seats to 10

    EICIPM slightly more likely than yesterday


    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    You have to be careful. SNP is 47. This could be "out" by 8 - 12. Most from Labour. So Labour @270 may be exaggerated. Similarly, I feel, LD @27.

    So the Tory lead is probably 15 as in SPIN. Having said that, presumably some Scottish seats are still being given to Labour. THey probably have some information.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.

    And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.

    For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.

    I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.

    So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.

    Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    So we're heading for a draw, and no viable 2 party coalition. uuurrrgh

    Yep! Looking more and more like it with every passing day. EICIPM but with Salmond calling the shots, unless Dave can get a big last week swingback.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    LOL, you think that will be a factor when PM beckons

    Indeed. Do English voters know it? maybe.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807



    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
    Surely a committed pedant would have commented on the absence of CAPITALS too?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Moses_ said:

    Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.

    And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.

    For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.

    I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.

    So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.

    Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
    No the one thing they want is to leave the EU. The longer the Tories stay in power the longer it will be until that happens. Your party is the problem not the solution.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.

    Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?

    On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.

    If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),

    But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
    I remember you saying a few weeks ago that David Cameron might have a very lucky escape at 5 minutes to midnight.

    If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Barnesian said:

    "This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"

    Is it?

    Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
    Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272

    I find the Tories just ahead.

    Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.

    That's basically my calculation as well. "An unstable Lab minorty with tacit SNP support" - to quote your excellent paper on possible future governments.

    Incidentally, I think your analysis is superb - better than anything I have seen in the press. I have printed it out for use early on May 8th.
    Thank you for your kind words, Barnesian. Very generous of you.

    It actually takes me quite a long time to write each blogpost. I'd been working on that one for several days, and evenings, as a personal project. You get to a stage when you're never quite fully happy with it, but then you decide to 'publish and be damned'.

    It's very satisfying to hear there are others out there who appreciate it.
    It really is very good.

    Thanks for the hard work
    Cheers BJO.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/

    And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
    Hannan is a good egg, although I would love to know how he gets on with former writing partner Mr Carswell since the latter defected.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    TGOHF said:



    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    It's Ipsos MORI.

    (no hyphen!!)
    Sun-il ?
    Su-ssu-sunil-oh-oh-oh

    Whoa-oh-oh

    Su-ssu-sunil-o

    :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qBaBb1Y-U

  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    JohnO said:

    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Do you have a link for that?

    That was how they described their February poll.
    Not sure how to do this but...

    https://twitter.com/harryaevans/status/593457297839562752
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    SMukesh said:

    Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.

    Vote for the man with the fake estuary English accent and glottal stops. Works for me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Moses_ said:

    Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.

    And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.

    For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.

    I know that people want to vot UKIp but they just cannot secure the seats to make the real difference.

    So they voteUkIp anyway and deny the one thing they really want. A referendum.

    Bizarre.... The law of unintended consequences personified.
    Nobody would vote for anyone other than the Conservatives or Labour, on that basis. A third of the country don't like either.

    I want more than a referendum.


  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    HYUFD said:
    Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?
    Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
    Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
    Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.

    Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
    Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/

    And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
    Yes I'm not on Hannan's wing of the party but on PR he is right. Those defending FPTP have not appreciated how this election will render that system not fit for purpose.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SMukesh said:

    Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.

    I saw that seems to be happening in Hallam already.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    On topic: the 3.5% swing is much the same as the national polls and typical of the Ashcroft constituency polls, is it not?

    My mind is on tonights footy. How does a 3.5% swing translate into a majority. In a notional 2010 dead heat seat of 50 000 electors, it would be a Lab majority of 1700. Is that correct?
    No!

    It means a dead heat becomes a 7% gap (Same effect as if 3.5% change their mind or "swing"). so 25K each becomes a 3500 majority.

    However it's never this simple...even if the result last time was
    Lab 25,000
    Con 25,000

    And became

    Lab 19,500
    Con 16,000
    Monster Raving Loony 14,500

    It's still a 3.5% swing Con --> Lab

    But a 20% swing Lab --> MRL because:
    50% Lab has become 39% (-11%)
    0% MRL has become 29% (+29%)

    So in theory a 40% change in relative vote share has happened because 20% of the electorate have changed their vote or "swung"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    David Evershed

    "So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much."

    I think you've hit the nail on the head. I've only seen three UKIP posters and they were on consecutive houses and it made me flinch. I felt like I'd driven into a leni riefenstahl movie.

    I'm sure when the pleasant young pollsters start asking their questions the respondents go onto their best behaviour and UKIP becomes 'don't know'.

    Yougov just oozes know-how.
  • Do we know when the ComRes fieldwork was done?

    24-26th (Friday to Sunday)
  • I understood that momentum was the most important factor and when you look at the last weeks polls, excluding the daily you gov and two populus, the conservatives have lead in all of them. Comments on this forum reflect the political support of the poster and is understandably talked up for their cause. Any independent commentator must draw the conclusion that it is too close to call but continuing polls showing the conservatives solidifying their lead or indeed expanding it will likely result in at the least a minority conservative led government.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Rexel56 said:

    JohnO said:

    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Do you have a link for that?

    That was how they described their February poll.
    Not sure how to do this but...

    https://twitter.com/harryaevans/status/593457297839562752
    "A corker" has turned out to be a mouse in the past.
  • enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Labour will gain Stevenage
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited April 2015

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.

    Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?

    On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.

    If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),

    But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
    I remember you saying a few weeks ago that David Cameron might have a very lucky escape at 5 minutes to midnight.

    If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
    Lucky?

    If the Tories get to form the next government it will be a huge achievement.

    Given the circumstances Cameron inherited last time (with no great enthusiastic electoral support) coupled with the removal of the Lib Dems as a second left-of-centre opposition party, I thought the Tories were nailed on for one-term only. I honestly thought they'd be mega unpopular by now, victims of voters with short memories and no great love of the Tories anyway.

    Then Labour made Ed their leader. That offered some hope.

    Now being this close in the polls just a week ago is a massive, massive bonus.

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.

    http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Chris123 said:

    ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA

    If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

    In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

    That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/

    Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?

    This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
    Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.
    People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.

    It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.

    That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).

    If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
    I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.
    Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?
    Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it is :D
    I am now completely out of EICIPM at a £400 profit.

    Not going back in at 1.6.

    Could still lose on Lab most seats i was hoping to get out at 3.5 but its stubbornly at 4.2
    Well played Sir !

    Whats your position on the seats ?
    well seeing as you asked... I'm Blues most seats +700, Reds +10

    is it too late for OGH to vote blue and help secure £70 for PB and not £1....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Farron on Newsnight left open LD going with Lab even if SNP support required - though of course SNP support would not be official.

    One stat to look for which I don't think anyone has mentioned so far:

    Will Con beat Lab + LD?

    Current SPIN:

    Con 286

    Lab 267 + LD 24 = 291

    Now on the face of it that "contest" is irrelevant. But I suspect it may matter when the LDs take their decision - ie they will be less inclined to support Lab if Lab + LD is less than Con.

    Very close at the moment per SPIN.

    Remember - in 2010 Lab + LD was greater than Con.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    enfant said:

    Labour will gain Stevenage

    Lab are clearly targetting this seat.seat. Mili had one of his NHS speeches here last week.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Sean_F said:

    Rexel56 said:

    JohnO said:

    Rexel56 said:

    ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?

    Do you have a link for that?

    That was how they described their February poll.
    Not sure how to do this but...

    https://twitter.com/harryaevans/status/593457297839562752
    "A corker" has turned out to be a mouse in the past.
    That sounds scary!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.

    http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election

    Really ?!? .... :innocent:

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Speedy said:

    So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.

    Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.

  • Because the idea of a law to prevent tax increases is not in the Conservative manifesto, the House of Lords is entitled to vote it down.

    This is nonsense. The Conservatives' proposal may be idiotic, but the House of Lords has no right to veto or amend money bills (see section 1 of the Parliament Act 1911).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Speedy said:

    So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.

    So it would seem. And despite some positive movement in recent days, disagreeing with it still relies on yet more significant positive movement that cannot be assumed.
This discussion has been closed.